氮沉降下鼎湖山森林凋落物分解及与土壤动物的关系

研究了南亚热带3种森林生态系统凋落物在N沉降下的分解动态及其与土壤动物群落的关系。选取季风常绿阔叶林、针阔混交林和马尾松林建立野外模拟N沉降样地,实施四个处理组,对照(Control)、低氮(50kg·hm-2·a-1,LowN)、中氮(100kg·hm-2·a-1,MediujmN)和高氮处理(150kg·hm-2·a-1,HighN),利用凋落物网袋法,在18个月的时间内调查分析了凋落物分解过程及其中的土壤动物密度特征。研究结果表明,植被演替阶段对凋落物的分解速度存在影响,季风林凋落物降解速度显著性快于混交林和针叶林(P<0.05);18个月后,季风林各处理地凋落物残留率为0.05、0.14、0.13和0.17,混交林为0.64、0.56和0.62,针叶林为0.66、0.63和0.62。N沉降增加对凋落物分解存在一定影响。且这种影响与植被类型之间存在明显的交互作用。N沉降处理对季风林凋落物分解表现出了一定的抑制作用,而且这种差异随时间推移愈益明显,但在混交林和针叶林内,试验后期凋落物分解受到了N沉降处理的促进作用。在试验后期,尤其是12个月后,凋落物网袋土壤动物密度在不同林地和不同水平N处理下体现了差异化发展趋势。在季风林内,N处理地土壤动物密度受到了明显的抑制;在混交林和针叶林内,低N样地动物密度显示了相比对照样地的明显优势,但在较高强度的中N处理地无论在凋落物的降解速率还是在动物密度上都与对照样地没有明显差别。文章认为,N沉降处理所产生的影响可能受环境N饱和程度的调控。文章还提出,在凋落物分解进程中,土壤动物群落具有“后期进入”特征,这对于进一步准确分析森林凋落物分解进程及土壤动物的贡献有重要意义。     

泥鳅对稻田土壤动物的扰动效应

2008年6月至1O月,通过田间试验.设置对照稻田和养鱼稻田2个处理,采用分层取样法和大类群分类法,利用反映土壤动物群落结构数量特征的多样性指数、均匀性指数和优势度指数,研究了泥鳅对稻田土壤动物群落的扰动效应.结果表明,稻田土壤动物群落的优势类群为腹足类、线虫类和线蚓类.稻一鱼复合系统土壤动物类群数高于对照稻田,但土壤动物个体数少于对照稻田.稻一鱼复合系统土壤动物多样性指数和均匀性指数高于对照稻田,但优势度指数低于对照稻田,显示稻一鱼复合系统具有更高的稳定性和抗干扰能力.稻田土壤动物的垂直分布具有明显的表聚性.     

芜湖市郊土壤污染对土壤动物群落结构的影响

研究表明，芜湖市郊农田土壤动物群落的组成与数量随污染程度的加重而减少，土壤动物密度也呈同样的变化趋势，特别是中小型土壤动物，优势类群数量发生较大消长，常见类群和稀有类群的组成逐渐减少．多样性指数H与重金属污染程度之间关系因受到季节的影响而变得复杂：冬季和初夏污染较重样地优势类群数量减少，群落均匀性指数E增加而优势度指数C减小，多样性指数H较高；而春季处于过渡阶段，某些类群(如螨类)数量爆发，C增高，H较小．土壤动物群落密度一类群指数DG随污染加重而减小．受到重金属污染的农田土壤动物的表聚性减弱，甚至出现逆分布现象．图1表4参15     

秦岭西部不同发育阶段日本落叶松林凋落物层大型土壤动物群落特征

以秦岭西部小陇山林区不同发育阶段的日本落叶松(Larix kaempferi)林为研究对象,探讨不同发育阶段日本落叶松林凋落物层的大型土壤动物群落特征.结果表明,10 a日本落叶松林土壤动物密度和类群丰富度均显著高于20和32 a日本落叶松林,而32 a日本落叶松林土壤动物群落密度又显著高于20 a日本落叶松林.不同发育阶段日本落叶松林土壤动物群落的营养功能群组成也发生了明显变化,随栽植林龄的增加,捕食性类群的比例先增加后降低,而腐食性+杂食性类群的比例先降低后增加,植食性类群的比例呈增加趋势.不同发育阶段日本落叶松林的正蚓科、线蚓科、倍足纲、幺蚣科、步甲科、蚁甲科、双翅目幼虫和蚁科土壤动物类群密度存在明显变化,进而改变了大型土壤动物群落结构和营养功能群组成.凋落物层土壤动物对不同发育阶段日本落叶松林的环境变化十分敏感,可以用来指示林下土壤环境变化.     

不同灌溉模式对广西蔗田大型土壤动物群落结构的影响

为了探讨不同灌溉模式对大型土壤动物群落结构的影响,在广西崇左市江州区糖料蔗节水灌溉试验区设置地埋滴灌、地表滴灌、管灌、喷灌、微喷5种灌溉处理以及无灌溉空白对照共6个样地,于2015年5—11月对大型土壤动物群落及土壤理化性质进行调查。共捕获大型土壤动物1 180只,隶属于2门10纲18目,优势类群为膜翅目(蚁科),占总数的71.44%;常见类群为蜘蛛目、等翅目(白蚁科)、革翅目、直翅目、鞘翅目、蜚蠊目、半翅目和等足目。不同灌溉模式各样地大型土壤动物类群数差异不显著。灌溉处理样地大型土壤动物密度、ShannonWiener多样性指数(H)、Pielou均匀度指数(E)和Margalef丰富度指数(D)均优于无灌溉样地,Simpson优势度指数(C)则相反,并且地埋滴灌、喷灌样地与无灌溉样地间上述指标均差异显著。不同灌溉模式对蔗田土壤理化性质产生显著影响,地埋滴灌、地表滴灌、管灌、喷灌和微喷样地土壤含水率、有机质含量、速效氮含量、速效磷含量及速效钾含量均高于无灌溉样地,且地埋滴灌与喷灌样地上述指标值较高。节水灌溉增强了土壤的储水能力,提高了土壤的营养条件,改善了蔗田土壤的微环境。大型土壤动物群落结构在不同灌溉模式下变化显著,主要表现在大型土壤动物密度与多样性增加,地埋滴灌和喷灌方式样地表现尤为突出。     

退化羊草草地生态恢复过程中大型土壤动物群落生态特征

选取吉林省大安市姜家甸草场天然羊草草地、一年生人工碱茅草地和一年生人工碱茅草地为研究样地，于2002与2003年7月份两次对样地进行野外采样。共捕获大型土壤动物3130只，分别隶属2门5纲10目13类。通过对比研究表明：土壤动物群落间个体密度有一定的差异，鞘翅同在各生境中都有较高个体密度分布，显示其是该草原地带大型土壤动物的特征性类群，土壤动物类群和个体数垂直分布表聚程度群落间有较大不同，土壤动物群落生物多样性存在空间分异。认为水肥干预可以增加土壤动物群落的生物多样性。DG多样性指数更适合表达不同演替阶段土壤动物群落的差异，大型土壤动物群落生物多样性能够指示退化草地生态系统恢复与重建过程。     

钨尾矿重金属污染对茶园土壤动物群落结构及多样性的影响

土壤动物对土壤理化环境变化响应十分敏感,土壤动物群落结构及多样性可以用于指示钨尾矿区土壤重金属污染程度。以钨尾矿下游区不同污染程度的茶园生境为研究对象,采用样方法系统调查了3个生境土壤动物群落的组成、结构、多样性及环境变化特征,利用NMDS、ANOSIM等比较不同生境土壤动物群落的相似性,运用RDA排序结合重金属污染指数分析土壤动物群落结构与土壤环境因子的关系。结果表明:未污染茶园土壤动物的个体数量、类群数、物种丰富度和多样性指数均显著高于污染茶园I和Ⅱ,而污染茶园Ⅱ土壤动物个体数、类群数和物种丰富度又显著高于污染茶园I;未污染茶园土壤动物均匀度指数显著高于污染茶园Ⅱ。土壤有机质是影响土壤动物分布的主要环境因子(51.42%),其次是全氮(贡献率9.08%)、全磷(贡献率11.21%)、速效磷和全钾(贡献率9.61%),它们均与土壤动物个体数和类群呈正相关。进一步分析发现,Ni、Cd、As和Cu等重金属是茶园的主要污染因子,它们显著降低了茶园Ⅰ和茶园Ⅱ土壤有机质(63.8%和58.5%)、全氮(61.7%和65%)和速效磷(55.9%和8.8%)含量,Ni、Cd和As是抑制茶园土壤动物群落分布的主要毒性因子,其解释率分别为46.55%、14.14%、9.83%。重金属污染降低了茶园土壤养分可利用性,重金属污染指数抑制土壤动物的类群和个体数量增长,土壤动物群落的丰富度指数、多样性指数和优势度指数随重金属污染程度的加重而降低。     

低质量浓度除草剂2，4滴丁酯处理对土壤动物群落结构的影响

土壤动物是土壤污染的敏感指示生物,对土壤环境变化表现出比较灵敏的反映,为了解低质量浓度除草剂对土壤生态系统的影响,进一步推动除草剂使用的安全性评价研究,采用除草剂2,4滴丁酯对土壤动物群落进行室内染毒模拟试验,参照农田施用常规参考质量浓度,设置4个质量浓度梯度和一个不喷施除草剂的对照质量浓度,质量浓度最高限于参考喷施质量浓度的3~4倍,一次染毒后分别于12、24、48和72 h后对土壤动物进行分离并对群落结构特征进行分析。试验共获得土壤动物18655个,隶属于2门,4纲,12目,群落结构分析结果表明低质量浓度2,4滴丁酯导致土壤动物个体数和类群数有所减少,但减少的程度并不大。个体数量变化与质量浓度增高之间呈现较明显负相关（r=-0.856,P〈0.05）,种类数变化与质量浓度之间不具有明显的相关性,土壤动物种类数的减少主要取决于稀有类群和极稀有类群,数量的变化则主要是优势类群和常见类群的增减。2,4滴丁酯的施加使得土壤动物群落多样性指数和优势度指数降低,均匀度指数增高。土壤动物个体数量和类群数量变化与染毒后经历的时间之间并未表现出明显的规律性,染毒后不同时间土壤动物优势度指数相差较大,而多样性指数和均匀度指数在不同历时时间段内相差不大。综合各分析结果能够看出,低质量浓度2,4滴丁酯处理会对土壤动物群落造成一定影响,但影响程度并不大。     

低效柏木林窗改造对土壤动物多样性的影响

在川中丘陵区柏木低效人工林中,选择人工采伐形成的4种不同大小的林窗(50 m2、100 m2、150 m2、200 m2),以未改造的柏木纯林为对照,研究不同大小林窗内土壤理化性质、土壤动物群落数量和多样性特征情况.结果显示:150 m2林窗对土壤容重、总孔隙度、毛管孔隙度和土壤含水量改善效果最好,并且有利于土壤有机质、全磷和有效磷含量的积累;对照样地和4种不同面积林窗共捕获土壤动物3 072头,分属4门8纲23目41科,昆虫纲为优势种群,占类群总数的47.8%,其中150 m2林窗下土壤动物数量和多样性最高.土壤动物与环境因素相关分析表明,土壤含水量、毛管孔隙度、总孔隙度、水解氮和有效磷与土壤动物多样性关系密切.主成分分析表明,150 m2林窗对土壤理化性质和土壤动物多样性综合影响效果最好,其次是200 m2林窗和100 m2林窗,50 m2林窗的改良效果不明显.上述结果表明,林窗式改造对柏木低效林土壤理化性质、土壤动物群落数量和多样性特征产生了一定影响,并且随林窗面积的不同而发生变化;综合来看150 m2林窗的改造效果最佳.     

不同培肥措施对黑土区农田中小型土壤动物群落的影响

为明晰不同的培肥措施对耕作黑土区中小型土壤动物群落的影响,于2017年6-9月在内蒙古兴安盟扎赉特旗农业科技示范园区种植基地设置4种不同培肥措施:T1(不施肥对照)、T2(秸秆还田)、T3(施有机肥)和T4(有机肥和秸秆配施)进行定点试验.共捕获中小型土壤动物4 243只,隶属于60个类群,其中,优势类群为矮蒲螨科、虫穴螨科和等节科3类,占总个体数的74.9%,常见类群为7类,占总个体数的18.81%.结果显示:有机肥和秸秆配施可以显著增加中小型土壤动物个体数(P 0.05),提高中小型土壤动物类群数,秸秆还田可以显著提高中小型土壤动物均匀度指数(P 0.05),施有机肥可以提高优势度指数,说明不同的培肥措施对中小型土壤动物群落指标具有不同的影响特征.垂直分布上,中小型土壤动物具有明显的表聚特征,并随着土层的加深个体数和类群数下降明显(P 0.05).月动态分析表明中小型土壤动物主要集中在水热条件较好的7月,各生态指数随时间推移呈规律性变化,7月份优势度指数较高,8月份多样性指数和丰富度指数较高,均匀度指数随时间呈下降趋势.因此,有机肥和秸秆配施较单独的培肥措施可以更好地提高黑土区土壤质量,改善中小型土壤动物群落结构,为中小型土壤动物提供适宜的生存环境.(图4表4参36)     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Rapid,recurring, structured survey versus bioblitz for generating biodiversity data and analysis with a multispecies abundance model

A bioblitz inexpensively and quickly generates biodiversity data, but bioblitzes are often conducted with haphazard, unreplicated sampling. Results tend to be taxonomically, geographically, or temporally biased, lack metadata, and consist of lists of observed taxa that do not enable further analyses or correction for imperfect detection. A rapid, recurring, structured survey (RRSS) uses a structured sampling design and temporal and spatial replication to survey randomly selected sites on a conservation property. We participated in a loosely structured bioblitz and a subsequent RRSS at Big Canoe Creek Nature Preserve in Springville (St. Clair County), Alabama (USA) to compare observed richness derived from the 2 survey approaches. The RRSS data structure enabled us to fit models that accounted for imperfect detection to estimate abundances, occupancy probabilities, and habitat associations. The loosely structured bioblitz data could not be used in such models. We present a new integrated multispecies abundance model that we applied to avian RRSS data. Our model extension enables estimation for the community, employs data augmentation to estimate the number of undetected species, and incorporates covariates. The RRSS generated a more comprehensive and less biased list of observed taxonomic richness than the loosely structured bioblitz (e.g., 73 vs. 45 bird species and 104 vs. 63 insect families from the RRSS vs. loosely structured bioblitz, respectively). Models fit to the RRSS data identified seasonal patterns in avian community composition and allowed for estimation of habitat–occupancy relationships for insect taxa. The RRSS protocol has potential for broad transferability as a standardized, quick, and inexpensive way to inventory biodiversity and estimate ecological parameters while providing an outreach opportunity.     

Compliance with and ecosystem function of biodiversity offsets in North American and European freshwaters

Land-use change via human development is a major driver of biodiversity loss. To reduce these impacts, billions of dollars are spent on biodiversity offsets. However, studies evaluating offset project effectiveness that examine components such as the overall compliance and function of projects remain rare. We reviewed 577 offsetting projects in freshwater ecosystems that included the metrics project size, type of aquatic system (e.g., wetland and creek), offsetting measure (e.g., enhancement, restoration, and creation), and an assessment of the projects’ compliance and functional success. Project information was obtained from scientific and government databases and gray literature. Despite considerable investment in offsetting projects, crucial problems persisted. Although compliance and function were related to each other, a high level of compliance did not guarantee a high degree of function. However, large projects relative to area had better function than small projects. Function improved when projects targeted productivity or specific ecosystem features and when multiple complementary management targets were in place. Restorative measures were more likely to achieve targets than creating entirely new ecosystems. Altogether the relationships we found highlight specific ecological processes that may help improve offsetting outcomes.     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

A palaeo-hydrogeological model for arsenic contamination in southern and south-east Asia

An argument is presented in which areas of natural arsenic contamination of modern groundwaters throughout Asia have a common origin. Arsenic originally accumulated in oceanic ferro-manganoan sediments of the eastern Palaeo-Tethys. This was further concentrated through oceanic crustal extinction in what later became the south-east Chinese accreted mineralised terrain. Proto-Himalayan uplift of this area created the palaeo-drainage systems of the Ganges – Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Mekong, and Red Rivers, with consequent headwater erosion of arsenic-rich sediments. Their downstream deposition as immature and easily redistributed Neogene sandstones, silts, and iron-rich clays has created secondary and tertiary reservoirs of adsorbed and authigenic arsenic, from which the current arsenic-rich groundwaters have evolved. Considering river basins within the above palaeo-hydrogeological framework provides a basis for assessing the risk of arsenic in groundwater basins of south and south-eastern Asia.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Threats to intact tropical peatlands and opportunities for their conservation

Large, intact areas of tropical peatland are highly threatened at a global scale by the expansion of commercial agriculture and other forms of economic development. Conserving peatlands on a landscape scale, with their hydrology intact, is of international conservation importance to preserve their distinctive biodiversity and ecosystem services and maintain their resilience to future environmental change. We explored threats to and opportunities for conserving remaining intact tropical peatlands; thus, we excluded peatlands of Indonesia and Malaysia, where extensive deforestation, drainage, and conversion to plantations means conservation in this region can protect only small fragments of the original ecosystem. We focused on a case study, the Pastaza‐Marañón Foreland Basin (PMFB) in Peru, which is among the largest known intact tropical peatland landscapes in the world and is representative of peatland vulnerability. Maintenance of the hydrological conditions critical for carbon storage and ecosystem function of peatlands is, in the PMFB, primarily threatened by expansion of commercial agriculture linked to new transport infrastructure that is facilitating access to remote areas. There remain opportunities in the PMFB and elsewhere to develop alternative, more sustainable land‐use practices. Although some of the peatlands in the PMFB fall within existing legally protected areas, this protection does not include the most carbon‐dense (domed pole forest) areas. New carbon‐based conservation instruments (e.g., REDD+, Green Climate Fund), developing markets for sustainable peatland products, transferring land title to local communities, and expanding protected areas offer pathways to increased protection for intact tropical peatlands in Amazonia and elsewhere, such as those in New Guinea and Central Africa which remain, for the moment, broadly beyond the frontier of commercial development.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

Cost‐effective conservation of an endangered frog under uncertainty

How should managers choose among conservation options when resources are scarce and there is uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of actions? Well‐developed tools exist for prioritizing areas for one‐time and binary actions (e.g., protect vs. not protect), but methods for prioritizing incremental or ongoing actions (such as habitat creation and maintenance) remain uncommon. We devised an approach that combines metapopulation viability and cost‐effectiveness analyses to select among alternative conservation actions while accounting for uncertainty. In our study, cost‐effectiveness is the ratio between the benefit of an action and its economic cost, where benefit is the change in metapopulation viability. We applied the approach to the case of the endangered growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis), which is threatened by urban development. We extended a Bayesian model to predict metapopulation viability under 9 urbanization and management scenarios and incorporated the full probability distribution of possible outcomes for each scenario into the cost‐effectiveness analysis. This allowed us to discern between cost‐effective alternatives that were robust to uncertainty and those with a relatively high risk of failure. We found a relatively high risk of extinction following urbanization if the only action was reservation of core habitat; habitat creation actions performed better than enhancement actions; and cost‐effectiveness ranking changed depending on the consideration of uncertainty. Our results suggest that creation and maintenance of wetlands dedicated to L. raniformis is the only cost‐effective action likely to result in a sufficiently low risk of extinction. To our knowledge we are the first study to use Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis to explicitly incorporate parametric and demographic uncertainty into a cost‐effective evaluation of conservation actions. The approach offers guidance to decision makers aiming to achieve cost‐effective conservation under uncertainty.