Sustainability appraisal in local land‐use planning: patterns of current performance

The UK government has identified the land‐use planning system, and development plans in particular, as potentially powerful instruments for integrating national sustainability objectives into strategic decision making at local levels. One method for achieving this is through the use of so‐called ‘sustainability appraisals’, which are an extension of the established system of environmental appraisal used by planners since the early 1990s. A national framework is outlined in Planning Policy Guidance Note 12. Local authorities are now expected to conduct an environmental appraisal of their development plans which covers sustainable development issues. However, little research has been conducted on the effectiveness of current guidance in meeting this aim. By evaluating the implementation of sustainability appraisals nationally, this paper suggests that while government advice to appraise is generally being applied, the actual use of key sustainability principles in practice is rather variable. It then discusses these findings in relation to the changing context of appraisals in the UK and other national planning systems.     

Assessing Land-Use Impacts on Natural Resources

/ Much information is available on changes that occur in natural resources from both spatially-explicit data on environmental conditions and models of the interactions of these conditions and resources with human activities. The strategy for assessing land-use impacts on natural resources developed in this paper provides a framework for using relevant data and models to address questions of how management practices can promote both use and protection of resources. This assessment strategy integrates spatially explicit environmental data using geographic information systems (GIS) with computer models that simulate changes in land cover in response to land-use impacts. The computer models also simulate susceptibility of species to changes in habitat suitability and landscape patterns. The approach is applied to management of limestone barrens on the Oak Ridge Reservation in East Tennessee. Potential limestone barrens habitats are identified by overlaying appropriate soils, geology, slope, and land-use/land-cover conditions. Their validity is tested against known sites containing rare species that occur in these habitats. The location of habitats at risk in the aftermath of human activities is determined by using an available area model that identifies the size and proximity of sites that particular types of species can no longer use as habitat. The resulting risk map can be used in land management planning. The approach uses readily available in situ and remotely sensed data and is applicable to a wide range of locations and land-use scenarios. This approach can be refined based on needs identified by land managers and on the sensitivity of the results to the resolution of available resource information.KEY WORDS: Land management; Assessment; Habitat characterization; Limestone barrens; Ecological modeling; Geographic information systems     

An integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling approach for risk assessment of groundwater contamination

An integrated fuzzy-stochastic risk assessment (IFSRA) approach was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with site conditions, environmental guidelines, and health impact criteria. The contaminant concentrations in groundwater predicted from a numerical model were associated with probabilistic uncertainties due to the randomness in modeling input parameters, while the consequences of contaminant concentrations violating relevant environmental quality guidelines and health evaluation criteria were linked with fuzzy uncertainties. The contaminant of interest in this study was xylene. The environmental quality guideline was divided into three different strictness categories: "loose", "medium" and "strict". The environmental-guideline-based risk (ER) and health risk (HR) due to xylene ingestion were systematically examined to obtain the general risk levels through a fuzzy rule base. The ER and HR risk levels were divided into five categories of "low", "low-to-medium", "medium", "medium-to-high" and "high", respectively. The general risk levels included six categories ranging from "low" to "very high". The fuzzy membership functions of the related fuzzy events and the fuzzy rule base were established based on a questionnaire survey. Thus the IFSRA integrated fuzzy logic, expert involvement, and stochastic simulation within a general framework. The robustness of the modeling processes was enhanced through the effective reflection of the two types of uncertainties as compared with the conventional risk assessment approaches. The developed IFSRA was applied to a petroleum-contaminated groundwater system in western Canada. Three scenarios with different environmental quality guidelines were analyzed, and reasonable results were obtained. The risk assessment approach developed in this study offers a unique tool for systematically quantifying various uncertainties in contaminated site management, and it also provides more realistic support for remediation-related decisions.     

Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment for Organic Compounds: Fuzzy Multicriteria Approach for Mexico City

This study was based on a groundwater vulnerability assessment approach implemented for the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The approach is based on a fuzzy multicriteria procedure integrated in a geographic information system. The approach combined the potential contaminant sources with the permeability of geological materials. Initially, contaminant sources were ranked by experts through the Analytic Hierarchy Process. An aggregated contaminant sources map layer was obtained through the simple additive weighting method, using a scalar multiplication of criteria weights and binary maps showing the location of each source. A permeability map layer was obtained through the reclassification of a geology map using the respective hydraulic conductivity values, followed by a linear normalization of these values against a compatible scale. A fuzzy logic procedure was then applied to transform and combine the two map layers, resulting in a groundwater vulnerability map layer of five classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Results provided a more coherent assessment of the policy-making priorities considered when discussing the vulnerability of groundwater to organic compounds. The very high and high vulnerability areas covered a relatively small area (71 km² or 1.5% of the total study area), allowing the identification of the more critical locations. The advantage of a fuzzy logic procedure is that it enables the best possible use to be made of the information available regarding groundwater vulnerability in the MCMA.     

Participatory Model Calibration for Improving Resource Management Systems: Case Study of Rainwater Harvesting in an Indian Village

While planning resource management systems in rural areas, it is important to consider criteria that are specific to the local social conditions. Such criteria might change from one region to another and are hence best identified using a participatory approach. In this work, we propose a participatory framework to identify such criteria and derive their weights. These identified criteria and their weights are used as parameters to develop a quantitative model for evaluating efficiency of each system. Such a model can serve as a support tool for stakeholders to simulate and analyze “what‐if” scenarios, evaluate alternatives, and select one which best satisfies their requirements. We use existing systems to test the model by comparing efficiencies evaluated by the model to efficiencies perceived by the stakeholders. The model is calibrated by repeating the process until statistically significant correlation is achieved between evaluated and perceived efficiencies. The novelty of the proposed framework lies in treating efficiencies perceived by the stakeholders as the ground truth since they know these systems well and are their ultimate users. The framework is successfully demonstrated using case study of rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems in an Indian village. The resulting calibrated model can be used to plan new RWH systems in this region and similar regions elsewhere. The framework can be used to plan other resource management systems in various regions.     

GIS在矿产资源评价中的应用

在矿产资源评价领域中,GIS的应用受到广泛的关注。作为一种地理学领域的信息系统,综合其它地质勘探、物探、化学等多种方法进行分析、判断,对矿产资源进行全面评价。讨论了GIS在矿产资源评价应用中的进展、作用、思路与方法以及应用过程中的关键问题。     

A dual-interval fixed-mix stochastic programming method for water resources management under uncertainty

In this study, a dual-interval fixed-mix stochastic programming (DFSP) method is developed for planning water resources management systems under uncertainty. DFSP incorporates interval-parameter programming (IPP) and fuzzy vertex analysis (FVA) within a fixed-mix stochastic programming (FSP) framework to address uncertain parameters described as probability distributions and dual intervals. It can also be used for analyzing various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences since penalties are exercised with recourse actions against any infeasibility. A real case for water resources management planning of Zhangweinan River Basin in China is then conducted for demonstrating the applicability of the developed DFSP method. Solutions in association with α-cut levels are generated by solving a set of deterministic submodels, which are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under compound uncertainties. The results can help to identify desired water-allocation schemes for local sustainable development that the prerequisite water demand can be guaranteed when the available water resource is scarce.     

Assessing the Transactional Nature of Wilderness Experiences: Construct Validation of the Wilderness-Hassles Appraisal Scale

Concerns over the increasing popularity of wilderness recreation have resulted in attempts to determine the amount of use that different areas can tolerate without adverse affects to the resource. Early attempts to establish recreational carrying capacities focused on managers' assessments of biophysical impacts. The perceptions of wilderness visitors, however, are now considered integral to capacity decisions. This study used a stress appraisal framework to understand wilderness visitors' perceptions of on-site conditions. It was based on the premise that negative appraisals of wilderness conditions produce stress and that individual perceptions vary based on personal and situational characteristics. The purpose of the study was to assess the validity of a wilderness-hassles appraisal scale by testing hypothesized relationships between experience-use history (EUH), place attachment, and stress appraisal. Data collection occurred through a postal survey of hikers (n = 385) contacted in the High Peaks and Pemigewasset Wilderness Areas during the summer of 2004. An exploratory factor analysis indicated that stress appraisal is a multi-dimensional construct. Validity testing procedures were restricted to those dimensions that were consistent between study areas and provided partial support for the hassles scale. As hypothesized, EUH did not influence perceptions of wilderness conditions. Place attachment, on the other hand, was positively correlated with stressful appraisals of social and managerial conditions. Although Kruskall Wallis tests revealed significant differences in visitors' perceptions of managerial conditions between study sites, perceptions of social conditions did not vary significantly. Implications for management and recommendations for further refinement of the wilderness hassles construct are discussed.     

A FUZZY SETS MODEL FOR MEASURING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF PUBLIC PARTICIPATION IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

Mathematical modeling of complex water resources System problems, particularly water pollution control, is aided by fizzy set theory. Public participation in large scale federally funded water resources and pollution control projects is now a federal requirement and practice of various planning agencies. However, no systems based model for quantifying and measuring the effectiveness of public participation is known to exist. In this paper, we report a fuzzy set based model developed for doing this in areawide water resources planning The model is essentially cascade in nature and employs the concepts of fuzzy pessimistic and optimistic aggregations to cluster and analyze the evaluations of the basic factors. Sample computations of the model are provided.     

TUGAI: An Integrated Simulation Tool for Ecological Assessment of Alternative Water Management Strategies in a Degraded River Delta

The development of ecologically sound water allocation strategies that account for the needs of riverine ecosystems is a pressing issue, especially in semiarid river basins. In the Aral Sea Basin, a search for strategies to mitigate ecological and socioeconomic deterioration has been in process since the early 1990s. The Geographic Information System–based simulation tool TUGAI has been developed to support the policy determination process by providing a simple, problem-oriented method to assess ecological effects of alternative water management strategies for the Amudarya River. It combines a multiobjective water allocation model with simple, spatially explicit statistical and rule-based models of landscape dynamics. Changes in environmental conditions are evaluated by a fuzzy habitat suitability index for Populus euphratica, which is the dominant species of the characteristic riverine Tugai forests. Water management scenarios can be developed by altering spatiotemporal water distribution in the delta area or the amount of water inflow into the delta. Outcomes of scenario analysis are qualitative comparisons of the ecological effects of different options for a time period of up to 28 years. The given approach utilizes different types of knowledge, from quantitative hydrological data to qualitative local expert knowledge. The main purpose of the tool is to integrate the knowledge in a comprehensive way to make it available for discussions on alternative policies in moderated workshops with stakeholders. In this article, the modules of the tool, their integration, and three hypothetical scenarios are presented. Based on the experience gained when developing the TUGAI tool, we propose that the general framework can be transferred to other areas where tradeoffs in water allocation between the environment and other water users are of major concern. The potential for a simulation tool to structure and inform a complex resource management situation by involving local experts and stakeholders in the development of possible future scenarios will become increasingly valuable for transparent and participatory resource management.     

Sustainable Water Resources Management in a Conflict Resolution Framework1

Abstract: A decision support system for sustainable water resources management in a water conflict resolution framework is developed to identify and evaluate a range of acceptable alternatives for the Geum River Basin in Korea and to facilitate strategies that will result in sustainable water resource management. Working with stakeholders in a “shared vision modeling” framework, sustainable management strategies are created to illustrate system tradeoffs as well as long‐term system planning. A multi‐criterion decision‐making (MCDM) approach using subjective scales is utilized to evaluate the complex water resource allocation and management tradeoffs between stakeholders and system objectives. The procedures used in this study include the development of a “shared vision model,” a simulated decision‐making support system (as a tool for sustainable water management strategies associated with water conflicts, management options, and planning criteria), and the application of MCDM techniques for evaluating alternatives provided by the model. The research results demonstrate the utility of the sustainable water resource management model in aid of MCDM techniques in facilitating flexibility during initial stages of alternative identification and evaluation in a basin suffering from severe water conflicts.     

PRIVATIZING THE GROUND WATER RESOURCE: INDIVIDUAL USE AND ALTERNATIVE SPECIFICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: While most inquiries into improving the efficiency of ground water allocation have focused upon various schemes involving centralized management, recently the focus has shifted towards exploring private property solutions to these problems. However, most of these studies, when modeling ground water use, have equated behavior under private property to that under common property conditions. This leads to the possibly mistaken conclusion that private property rights do not promote more efficient ground water use, because these models assume that producers ignore the future effects of current pumping. This paper attempts to correct this deficiency by formally modeling ground water use under common property, central management, and private property scenarios. Moreover, there are many ways that property rights can be defined over ground water, some establishing more exclusivity over the resource than others. Four specifications of property rights are analyzed for their likely effects on allocative efficiency: full stock-flow, partial stock-flow, limited stock-flow, and pure flow rights.     

Modeling human-induced climatic change: A summary for environmental managers

The rapid increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases has caused concern because of their potential to alter the earth's radiation budget and disrupt current climate patterns While there are many uncertainties associated with use of general circulation models (GCMs), GCMs are currently the best available technology to project changes in climate associated with elevated gas concentrations. Results indicate increases in global temperature and changes in global precipitation patterns are likely as a result of doubled CO₂. GCMs are not reliable for use at the regional scale because local scale processes and geography are not taken into account. Comparison of results from five GCMs in three regions of the United States indicate high variability across regions and among models depending on season and climate variable. Statistical methods of scaling model output and nesting finer resolution models in global models are two techniques that may improve projections. Despite the many limitations in GCMs, they are useful tools to explore climate-earth system dynamics when used in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models. A variety of water resource models showed significant alteration of regional hydrology when run with both GCM-generated and hypothetical climate scenarios, regardless of region or model complexity. Similarly, ecological models demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem production, nutrient dynamics, and distribution to changes in climate and CO₂ levels. We recommend the use of GCM-based scenarios in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models to guide environmental management and policy in a “no-regrets” framework or as part of a precautionary approach to natural resource protection.     

Mineral resources appraisal and policy: Controversies,issues and the future

Political-economic events of the 1970s brought mineral resource appraisal to the focus of national policy. Estimates of and methodologies for mineral resources appraisal were scrutinized, revealing deficiencies in method and data and fostering considerable debate about the credibility of estimates and about preferred methodology. Since credibility can be increased through the acquisition of additional geoscience information, questions regarding methodology have more than one formulation and therefore more than one correct solution, depending upon the expected value of additional information and the conditional losses of relevant policy options. When existing information is meagre and the expected value of information is high, the optimum decision may be to defer all policy options until after the acquisition and analysis of- additional information. Decision theory offers an analytical framework that is sufficiently generalized to provide answers for highly varied circumstances of geoscience and resource information and policy issues. Our ability to perform any such analysis is limited by inaccuracies in both geologists' estimates of undiscovered mineral resources, and in economists' calculations of conditional losses of policy options for each of the relevant states of mineral resources.     

Gradient modeling: A new approach to fire modeling and wilderness resource management

Managers of wilderness resources must maintain, preserve, and sometimes restore pristine ecosystems while providing for public use and enjoyment of these areas. These managers require a resource information system that can store, retrieve and integrate basic data, synthesize components to solve particular problems, and provide simulations and predictions of natural processes and management actions. Traditional information systems based on land classification and type-mapping do not provide these capabilities.Gradient modeling, a new approach to resource management and forest fire simulation, has been developed to meet these needs in Glacier National Park. The method links four major components: (1) a terrestrial site inventory coded from aerial photographs that offers 10-m resolution; (2) gradient models of vegetation and fuel that derive quantitative stand compositional data from the parameters stored in the coded inventory; (3) a fuel moisture and microclimate model that extrapolates basestation weather data to remote sites using the parameters stored in the inventory; and (4) fire behavior and fire ecology models that integrate the data from the inventory and models to calculate real-time fire behavior and ecological succession following a fire.     

Linking Biological Integrity and Watershed Models to Assess the Impacts of Historical Land Use and Climate Changes on Stream Health

Land use change and other human disturbances have significant impacts on physicochemical and biological conditions of stream systems. Meanwhile, linking these disturbances with hydrology and water quality conditions is challenged due to the lack of high-resolution datasets and the selection of modeling techniques that can adequately deal with the complex and nonlinear relationships of natural systems. This study addresses the above concerns by employing a watershed model to obtain stream flow and water quality data and fill a critical gap in data collection. The data were then used to estimate fish index of biological integrity (IBI) within the Saginaw Bay basin in Michigan. Three methods were used in connecting hydrology and water quality variables to fish measures including stepwise linear regression, partial least squares regression, and fuzzy logic. The IBI predictive model developed using fuzzy logic showed the best performance with the R ² = 0.48. The variables that identified as most correlated to IBI were average annual flow, average annual organic phosphorus, average seasonal nitrite, average seasonal nitrate, and stream gradient. Next, the predictions were extended to pre-settlement (mid-1800s) land use and climate conditions. Results showed overall significantly higher IBI scores under the pre-settlement land use scenario for the entire watershed. However, at the fish sampling locations, there was no significant difference in IBI. Results also showed that including historical climate data have strong influences on stream flow and water quality measures that interactively affect stream health; therefore, should be considered in developing baseline ecological conditions.     

‘Short Cut’ Techniques to Incorporate Environmental Considerations into Project Appraisal: An Exploration Using Case Studies

Incorporating environmental and natural resource impacts into the benefit-cost analysis of projects in the developing world now relies on a solid body of theory and recommended techniques, but there remain concerns with how this is done in practice. One aspect arises when time and resource constraints make highly sophisticated analysis difficult or impossible. This paper discusses situations where analyses can be improved using relatively simple ‘short cut’ techniques that substitute for more formal analysis that cannot be undertaken realistically or provide an added perspective on project viability. Case studies are employed to illustrate the techniques, based upon the author's experience with appraisals at the World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). It is shown that short cut techniques can dramatically alter the outcome of an appraisal at relatively little cost. However, caution is advised since such techniques can be misused, so that the development of suitable protocols is desirable.     

Quantifying Florida Bay Habitat Suitability for Fishes and Invertebrates Under Climate Change Scenarios

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.     

An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA–DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the “technology scenarios”; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the “policy scenarios”; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the “global scenarios”. Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.     

ESTIMATING THE WATER QUALITY BENEFITS FROM SOIL EROSION CONTROL1

ABSTRACT: A framework for estimating the water quality benefits from soil erosion was developed. The framework is based on the linkages between soil erosion and offsite damages. The linkages are: erosion on the field, movement of eroded materials to waterways, impact of discharged material on water quality parameters, impact of water quality changes on ability of water to provide economic services, and the economic value of the changes in water use. These linkages need to be modeled in order to estimate the water quality benefits from reductions in soil erosion. Methods for modeling each link on a geographic level, which enables the analyses of national soil conservation, were examined. Areas where data or models were found to be lacking include transport of sediment and nutrients to water systems, impact of discharged materials on water quality parameters, and impact of water quality on ability of water to provide economic services. An economic evaluation of 1983 soil conservation programs was presented as an example of how the framework could be used. A number of simplifying assumptions were made to represent links that could not be modeled with available data.