Approaches to Evaluating Climate Change Impacts on Species: A Guide to Initiating the Adaptation Planning Process

Assessing the impact of climate change on species and associated management objectives is a critical initial step for engaging in the adaptation planning process. Multiple approaches are available. While all possess limitations to their application associated with the uncertainties inherent in the data and models that inform their results, conducting and incorporating impact assessments into the adaptation planning process at least provides some basis for making resource management decisions that are becoming inevitable in the face of rapidly changing climate. Here we provide a non-exhaustive review of long-standing (e.g., species distribution models) and newly developed (e.g., vulnerability indices) methods used to anticipate the response to climate change of individual species as a guide for managers grappling with how to begin the climate change adaptation process. We address the limitations (e.g., uncertainties in climate change projections) associated with these methods, and other considerations for matching appropriate assessment approaches with the management questions and goals. Thorough consideration of the objectives, scope, scale, time frame and available resources for a climate impact assessment allows for informed method selection. With many data sets and tools available on-line, the capacity to undertake and/or benefit from existing species impact assessments is accessible to those engaged in resource management. With some understanding of potential impacts, even if limited, adaptation planning begins to move toward the development of management strategies and targeted actions that may help to sustain functioning ecosystems and their associated services into the future.     

Using Satellite Imagery to Assess Large-Scale Habitat Characteristics of Adirondack Park, New York, USA

Satellite imagery is a useful tool for large-scale habitat analysis; however, its limitations need to be tested. We tested these limitations by varying the methods of a habitat evaluation for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the Adirondack Park, New York, USA, utilizing harvest data to create and validate the assessment models. We used two classified images, one with a large minimum mapping unit but high accuracy and one with no minimum mapping unit but slightly lower accuracy, to test the sensitivity of the evaluation to these differences. We tested the utility of two methods of assessment, habitat suitability index modeling, and pattern recognition modeling. We varied the scale at which the models were applied by using five separate sizes of analysis windows. Results showed that the presence of a large minimum mapping unit eliminates important details of the habitat. Window size is relatively unimportant if the data are averaged to a large resolution (i.e., township), but if the data are used at the smaller resolution, then the window size is an important consideration. In the Adirondacks, the proportion of hardwood and softwood in an area is most important to the spatial dynamics of deer populations. The low occurrence of open area in all parts of the park either limits the effect of this cover type on the population or limits our ability to detect the effect. The arrangement and interspersion of cover types were not significant to deer populations.     

The problem of scale in community resource management

Scale is a fundamental variable in most community resource management programs. This is true both in terms of scale as a management concept (i.e., local, regional, and national level management) as well as a mapping concept (i.e., units on the map per unit on the ground). Julian Steward, the father of human ecology, recognized as early as 1950 that social scientists have failed to develop methods for incorporating the effect of scale in their work. This article seeks to determine whether methods used in plant and animal ecology for assessing the effects of scale are applicable to community resource management. The article reviews hierarchy theory and multiple scales, two methods (one theoretical and the other practical) for dealing with problems that span many scales. The application of these methods to community resource management programs is examined by way of an example.     

Embracing sustainability: the incorporation of sustainability principles in municipal planning and policy in four mid-sized municipalities in Ontario,Canada

The issue of planning for sustainability is becoming more established within Canadian municipal planning. As municipalities begin to align their planning policy to reflect a more sustainable approach, there is an increased interest in how sustainability is being operationalised within municipal documents. This research aims to better understand how principles of sustainability are imbedded within Ontario municipal documents, with a specific focus on the Integrated Sustainability Community Planning approach that has emerged in Canada. Drawing on a nested comparative case study of four mid-sized municipalities, we uncover the language and strategies employed by the municipalities as they relate to the principles of sustainability developed by Gibson [2006a. Sustainability assessment: basic components of a practical approach. Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, 24 (3), 170–182]. The findings suggest that current policy-based approaches to sustainability are considering more socially oriented strategies focused on promoting community involvement, inclusive decision-making, equity, socio-ecological civility, long-term integrative planning, and responsibility through stewardship. However, there are potential limitations that will require future research to examine policy outcomes associated with sustainability uptake. The ICSP approach must still overcome the issues relating to lack of regulatory authority and the incorporation of policies based on popular trends rather than empirical evidence.     

Small–scale mining in South Africa: Past, present and future

Mining is an important part of the South African economy and has been the driver of much of the economic development of the country. However, the small–scale mining subsector still has to realise its full potential. A small–scale mine has been defined as a mining activity employing less than 50 people and with an annual turnover of less than 7.5 million Rand and includes artisanal mines. Small–scale miners are involved in many commodities but there appears to be a bias towards gold, diamonds and quarrying for construction materials, including brickclays. Small–scale mining is regulated by the same legislation (i.e., for the environment, labour, mineral rights, exploration and mining permitting, and skills development) as large–scale mining, though compliance is low, particularly where artisanal mining in concerned. The effective participation of small–scale miners in the mining sector is hampered by their lack of skills, i.e., technical, business and management, and their limited access to mineral deposits, capital and markets. Some of these hindrances have been inherited from the imbalances of the colonial and apartheid eras and continue to act as barriers, making entrance to the industry difficult. For those who have entered the industry out of desperation, as is the case with most artisanal miners, their activities result in negative impacts evident in the inefficient, unsafe and environmentally unfriendly operations. With the advent of the new political dispensation in South Africa, a new era is dawning for the country’s small–scale mining subsector. This has resulted in a change of attitude and new government policies which have led to special programmes being put in place to promote the subsector. Intervention strategies for the support of small–scale mining (some of which are already in operation) include programmes for kickstarting mineral beneficiation and value–addition projects, development of appropriate technologies and skills and technology transfer. Proponents of small–scale mining see a well–regulated industry as being the cornerstone of future rural economic development, particularly for previously disadvantaged communities in the poverty nodes.     

Optimal Design Methods for Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems

Renewable and hybrid energy systems (HESs) are expanding due to environmental concerns of climate change, air pollution, and depleting fossil fuels. Moreover, HESs can be cost effective in comparison with conventional power plants. This article reviews current methods for designing optimal HESs. The survey shows these systems are often developed on a medium scale in remote areas and stand-alone, but there is a global growing interest for larger scale deployments that are grid connected. Examples of HESs are PV–wind–battery and PV–diesel–battery. PV and wind energy sources are the most widely adopted. Diesel and batteries are often used but hydrogen is increasing as a clean energy carrier. The design of an efficient HES is challenging because HES models are nonlinear, non-convex, and composed of mixed-type variables that cannot be solved by traditional optimization methods. Alternatively, two types of approaches are typically used for designing optimal HESs: simulation-based optimization and metaheuristic optimization methods. Simulation-based optimization methods are limited in view of human intervention that makes them tedious, time consuming, and error prone. Metaheuristics are more efficient because they can handle automatically a range of complexities. In particular, multi-objective optimization (MOO) metaheuristics are the most appropriate for optimal HES because HES models involve multiple objectives at the same time such as cost, performance, supply/demand management, grid limitations, and so forth. This article shows that the energy research community has not fully utilized state-of-the-art MOO metaheuristics. More recent MOO metaheuristics could be used such as robust optimization and interactive optimization.     

Wetland ecological and compliance assessments in the San Francisco Bay Region, California, USA

The San Francisco Bay Region of the California Regional Water Quality Control Board (SFB CRWQCB) and the San Francisco District of the US Army Corps of Engineers (US ACOE) are looking for an expeditious means to determine whether regulated wetland projects produce ecologically valuable systems and remain in compliance with their permits (i.e. fulfill their legal requirements) until project completion. A study was therefore undertaken in which 20 compensatory wetland mitigation projects in the San Francisco Bay Region were reviewed and assessed for both permit compliance and habitat function, and this was done using a rapid assessment method adapted for this purpose. Thus, in addition to determining compliance and function, a further goal of this study was to test the efficacy of the assessment method, which, if useful, could be applied not only to mitigation projects, but also to restoration projects and natural wetland systems. Survey results suggest that most projects permitted 5 or more years ago are in compliance with their permit conditions and are realizing their intended habitat functions. The larger restoration sites or those situated between existing wetland sites tend to be more successful and offer more benefits to wildlife than the smaller isolated ones. These results are consistent with regulatory experience suggesting that economies of scale could be realized both with (1) large scale regional wetland restoration sites, through which efforts are combined to control invasive species and share costs, and (2) coordinated efforts by regulatory agencies to track project information and to monitor the increasing number and size of mitigation and restoration sites. In regard to the assessment methods, we find that their value lies in providing a consistent protocol for evaluations, but that the ultimate assessment will rely heavily on professional judgment, regulatory experience, and the garnering of pre-assessment information.     

Thinking inside the basin: scale in transboundary water management

While transboundary waters are widely advocated to be best managed at the basin level, practical experience in transboundary waters at the basin vis‐à‐vis other scales has not been systematically examined. To understand past experiences in transboundary water management at alternate scales, this paper: (i) determines the relative abundance of water treaties at different scales and (ii) elucidates how transboundary water law varies according to the scale to which it applies. The paper developed a scale typology with six groups, and systematically applied it to stratify transboundary water treaties. Treaty contents were then compared across scales according to the following set of parameters: primary issue area, temporal development, and important water management attributes. Results of this work reveal: (i) treaties tend to focus on hydropower and flood control at smaller scales, and organizations and policies at larger scales; (ii) a temporal trend toward treaties concluded at larger scales; and (iii) a higher proportion of treaties is at larger scales in Africa and Asia than in Europe and the Americas. These findings suggest that smaller scale cooperation may constitute a more constructive scale in which to achieve development‐oriented cooperation. Further, scope may exist to complement basin scale cooperation with cooperation at smaller scales, in order to optimize transboundary water management. In the context of basin‐wide management frameworks, Africa and Asia may benefit from greater emphasis on small‐scale transboundary water cooperation.     

Establishing the green neighbourhood: approaches to neighbourhood-scale sustainability certification in Portland,Oregon

ABSTRACT

While local governance is widely acknowledged as an important element in the pursuit of sustainability, local action alone is insufficient to produce lasting change. One recent solution to this quandary has been the production of certification frameworks that encourage sustainable development at the neighbourhood scale by providing local actors with standardised definitions of sustainable practices. While these frameworks facilitate the spread of sustainable development strategies between local communities, there are significant contrasts between their approaches to encouraging local sustainable development that simultaneously fulfils global objectives. This article explores these contrasts through two neighbourhood-scale sustainability certification frameworks: LEED for Neighborhood Development (LEED-ND) and the EcoDistricts Protocol. Analysis of these frameworks in the context of two centrally-located neighbourhoods in Portland, Oregon, reveals substantial contrasts between the two frameworks in terms of the relative flexibility of their sustainability metrics, the time frame over which decisions regarding sustainable development are made, and community involvement in the process of pursuing specific objectives. Furthermore, it suggests that greater flexibility in the application of standards, continuous governance, and greater community involvement lead to more dynamic and holistic forms of sustainability that evolve as both local community needs and broader understandings of sustainability change over time.     

Taking Environmental Action: The Role of Local Composition, Context, and Collective

This article explores individual and community action taken in response to perceived environmental risks by investigating the determinants of environmental action across a range of action types. A conceptual framework is first presented, which provides a foundation for investigating the role of local compositional (i.e., individual characteristics), contextual (i.e., neighborhood environment), and collective (i.e., social networks) factors in environmental action. To test the utility of the conceptual framework, a quantitative survey was administered to a random sample of households (n = 512) in Hamilton, Canada. The results suggest that the predictors of environmental action vary by action type (i.e., personal change, individual civic action, and cooperative civic action), and that factors related to perceived environmental exposure and social capital generally play a stronger, more consistent role in civic environmental action than sociodemographic or neighborhood factors. The results underscore the role of social connection in responses to perceived environmental risks.     

A Systematic Review of Wild Burro Grazing Effects on Mojave Desert Vegetation,USA

Wild burros (Equus asinus), protected by the 1971 Wild Free-Roaming Horse and Burro Act on some federal lands but exotic animals many ecologists and resource mangers view as damaging to native ecosystems, represent one of the most contentious environmental management problems in American Southwest arid lands. This review synthesizes the scattered literature about burro effects on plant communities of the Mojave Desert, a center of burro management contentions. I classified 24 documents meeting selection criteria for this review into five categories of research: (i) diet analyses directly determining which plant species burros consume, (ii) utilization studies of individual species, (iii) control-impact comparisons, (iv) exclosure studies, and (v) forage analyses examining chemical characteristics of forage plants. Ten diet studies recorded 175 total species that burros consumed. However, these studies and two exclosure studies suggested that burros preferentially eat graminoid and forb groups over shrubs. One study in Death Valley National Park, for example, found that Achnatherum hymenoides (Indian ricegrass) was 11 times more abundant in burro diets than expected based on its availability. Utilization studies revealed that burros also exhibit preferences within the shrub group. Eighty-three percent of reviewed documents were produced in a 12-year period, from 1972 to 1983, with the most recent document produced in 1988. Because burros remain abundant on many federal lands and grazing may interact with other management concerns (e.g., desert wildfires fueled by exotic grasses), rejuvenating grazing research to better understand both past and present burro effects could help guide revegetation and grazing management scenarios.     

From Policy Document to Implementation: Organizational Routines as Possible Barriers to Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation

This paper aims to understand the role of organizational routines as possible barriers to the mainstreaming of climate adaptation at the implementation stage. While the mainstreaming of climate adaptation into policy documents is relatively easy, the implementation of these policies seems to be more problematic. Barriers to climate adaptation often occur during this stage as the implementation of the policies is generally undertaken by other actors than the policy-makers. These actors act based on organizational routines. As organizational routines aim to provide stability, they tend to be reaffirmative. Reorganizing the resources and practices of these actors to initiate mainstreaming then proves difficult. Consequently, the routines could prevent change that might be necessary to address new policy objectives such as climate adaptation. An analytical framework consisting of four self-reinforcing mechanisms is used to understand and explain why and how organizational routines can hamper the mainstreaming of climate adaptation during implementation. A case study is used to illustrate organizational routines as possible barriers. The paper concludes by stating that to optimize the possibilities of mainstreaming climate adaptation, a change in routines is necessary. In order to stimulate change in organizational routines, the focus should be on reflecting on existing routines, legitimacy building and learning.     

What are the barriers to successful community-based climate change adaptation? A review of grey literature

ABSTRACT

Across the Global South, community-based adaptation (CBA) projects are increasingly being implemented in an effort to respond effectively and sustainably to the impacts of climate change, with a particular focus on people’s livelihoods. Despite an increase in the number of CBA projects being implemented, detailed analysis and evaluation of their efficacy and the barriers faced in achieving successful outcomes is lacking. This study draws on an analysis of grey literature (i.e. project and donor reports) to explore the barriers faced in achieving effective CBA. An extensive global search of online project evaluations yielded 25 documents comprising 69 projects from which this analysis is based. This paper first presents an overview of the 69 projects and highlights any trends. Second, this paper describes the barriers to CBA according to three broad themes: socio-political, resource, and physical systems and processes. Following this is a discussion of the most prevalent barriers: cognitive and behavioural, financial, and human resources. Third, this paper discusses the key findings elucidated from this review. This includes the need for greater sharing of project reports and findings so lessons can be learned across spatial and temporal scales, and the disparity between critical academic literature on CBA and what is implemented in practice.     

The evolving science of chemical risk assessment for land-applied biosolids

Biosolids, effluents, and manures are widely applied to agricultural land and other land with varying degrees of pretreatment or control. Regulations governing land application of biosolids take several broad forms in different countries, including limitations based on rates that do not lead to increases in background chemical concentrations or risk assessment approaches such as those used in the United States. Risk assessment is a process that is inherently limited by currently available information and practices, and consequently, risk-based land application limits must be reevaluated periodically. For complex mixtures such as biosolids, three principal categories of information will be affected by changing practices and scientific advances: (i) chemical constituents present in the material, (ii) the nature of expected exposures, and (iii) toxicity of the chemical constituents. New analytical methods and lower detection limits will affect chemical identification in wastes. Approaches to exposure assessment, such as increasing emphasis on probabilistic analyses, will continue to evolve, and exposure assumptions will change as new studies provide better data on factors such as soil ingestion, plant uptake of chemicals, and bioavailability of chemicals in soil. Similarly, toxicity assessments will be updated as new studies are conducted. The evolving science over the past decade is illustrated by comparing approaches used by the USEPA to assess human health and ecological risks for the Part 503 rule compared with the more recent evaluation of dioxins and related compounds in biosolids. While risks of chemicals in land-applied biosolids and other residuals need to be periodically re-evaluated, such re-evaluations may take forms other than full risk assessments.     

Vulnerability and adaptation to heat in cities: perspectives and perceptions of local adaptation decision-makers in Sweden

Climate change vulnerability is disproportionately distributed between different population segments in society. This study qualitatively explores how key stakeholders in municipalities (i.e. planning and operational staff in municipalities and the vulnerable themselves) construct social vulnerability in relation to climate change with a specific focus on thermal stress (i.e. heat waves) and which adaptive responses they identify at different levels. The empirical material consists of five focus groups with actors in a large Swedish municipality where the “Vulnerability Factor Card Game” was used as stimulus material to create 10 fictional individuals. The results show that there is a substantial amount of local knowledge about vulnerability drivers and inter-relations between social factors and vulnerability. Local decision-makers also defined a wide range of possible adaptation measures at different municipal levels. Our study clearly indicates that contextualised knowledge, which could complement the quantitative approaches in research, is abundant among municipal planners, staff employed at municipal operations such as health care, and among the vulnerable themselves. This knowledge remains untapped by research to a great extent and only seems to have an insignificant influence on policy-making. In particular, how impacts vary between different social and demographic groups and how adaptation strategies that target the most vulnerable could be defined are of great interest. The present study clearly indicates that social hierarchy may produce increased inequality in the specific context of climate change, vulnerability and adaptive responses at different levels.     

Using a social learning configuration to increase Vietnamese smallholder farmers’ adaptive capacity to respond to climate change

Social learning is crucial for local smallholder farmers in developing countries to improve their adaptive capacity and to adapt to the current and projected impacts of climate change. While it is widely acknowledged that social learning is a necessary condition for adaptation, few studies have systematically investigated under which conditions particular forms of social learning are most successful in improving adaptive capacity of the most vulnerable groups. This study aims to design, implement and evaluate a social learning configuration in a coastal community in Vietnam. We make use of various methods during four workshop-based interventions with local smallholder farmers: interviews with key farmers and commune leaders, farmer-to-farmer learning, participatory observations and focus group discussions. The methods for evaluation of social learning configuration include in-depth interviews, focus group discussions and structured survey interviews. Our findings show that the social learning configuration used in this study leads to an increased problem ownership, an enhanced knowledge-base with regard to climate change impacts and production adaptation options, improved ability to see connections and interdependencies and finally, strengthened relationships and social cohesion. The results suggest that increased social learning in the community leads to increase in adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers and improves both their economic and environmental sustainability. We discuss the key lessons for designing learning configurations that can successfully enhance adaptive capacity and smallholder farmers’ agency and responsiveness to the challenges posed by climate change impacts.     

Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies in Rural Sahel

Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context, households and groups assign economic, political, and social rather than climate factors as the main reasons for change. It is concluded that the communities studied have a high awareness of climate issues, but climatic narratives are likely to influence responses when questions mention climate. Change in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain climate.     

Visiting a Climate-Influenced National Park: The Stability of Climate Change Perceptions

Understanding perceptions of global environmental issues, such as climate change, can help inform resource management, policy development, and communication with constituents. Although a considerable amount of research documents citizens’ perceptions of climate change, few have investigated how interactions with climate-impacted parks and protected areas influence these perceptions, and consequently elements of environmental management. Using a mixed methods Instrument Development Approach, the researchers examined the stability of park visitors’ (N = 429) climate change perceptions during a daylong interaction with climate-sensitive and influenced resources at Kenai Fjords National Park in Alaska. Results indicate that global-level beliefs about climate change remained relatively stable during a park experience, but perceptions about climate change at the park-level (e.g., impacts) appeared more malleable. Findings also revealed the type of park experience (terrestrial vs. marine) can influence the degree of change in visitors’ perceptions. Implications for communication, outreach, and park management are discussed.     

Landslides in the Garhwal Lesser Himalaya, UP, India

The Garhwal Lesser Himalaya is one of the most fascinating segments of the Himalayan arc and in many ways quite unique in its geomorphological features and geological setting. Although it has a mild and mature topography in comparison with the Central and Outer Himalayas, with its deeply dissected valleys it is more immature than other areas such as the Himachal and Kumaon Lesser Himalayas. Debris flows, rock falls and slow mass rock movements are frequent within this part of the Himalayas. The frequent landslides in the area are controlled by the trends of the rocks and slopes, the structural features and the rock lithologies. Correlating all these factors, this paper illustrates how the slopes on the ridges parallel to the Himalayan trend (i.e. WNW–ESE) are the most susceptible for the mass failure.     

Volunteer Macroinvertebrate Monitoring: Tensions Among Group Goals,Data Quality,and Outcomes

Volunteer monitoring of natural resources is promoted for its ability to increase public awareness, to provide valuable knowledge, and to encourage policy change that promotes ecosystem health. We used the case of volunteer macroinvertebrate monitoring (VMM) in streams to investigate whether the quality of data collected is correlated with data use and organizers' perception of whether they have achieved these outcomes. We examined the relation between site and group characteristics, data quality, data use, and perceived outcomes (education, social capital, and policy change). We found that group size and the degree to which citizen groups perform tasks on their own (rather than aided by professionals) positively correlated with the quality of data collected. Group size and number of years monitoring positively influenced whether a group used their data. While one might expect that groups committed to collecting good-quality data would be more likely to use it, there was no relation between data quality and data use, and no relation between data quality and perceived outcomes. More data use was, however, correlated with a group's feeling of connection to a network of engaged citizens and professionals. While VMM may hold promise for bringing citizens and scientists together to work on joint conservation agendas, our data illustrate that data quality does not correlate with a volunteer group's desire to use their data to promote regulatory change. Therefore, we encourage scientists and citizens alike to recognize this potential disconnect and strive to be explicit about the role of data in conservation efforts.