Establishing IUCN Red List Criteria for Threatened Ecosystems

Abstract: The potential for conservation of individual species has been greatly advanced by the International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) development of objective, repeatable, and transparent criteria for assessing extinction risk that explicitly separate risk assessment from priority setting. At the IV World Conservation Congress in 2008, the process began to develop and implement comparable global standards for ecosystems. A working group established by the IUCN has begun formulating a system of quantitative categories and criteria, analogous to those used for species, for assigning levels of threat to ecosystems at local, regional, and global levels. A final system will require definitions of ecosystems; quantification of ecosystem status; identification of the stages of degradation and loss of ecosystems; proxy measures of risk (criteria); classification thresholds for these criteria; and standardized methods for performing assessments. The system will need to reflect the degree and rate of change in an ecosystem's extent, composition, structure, and function, and have its conceptual roots in ecological theory and empirical research. On the basis of these requirements and the hypothesis that ecosystem risk is a function of the risk of its component species, we propose a set of four criteria: recent declines in distribution or ecological function, historical total loss in distribution or ecological function, small distribution combined with decline, or very small distribution. Most work has focused on terrestrial ecosystems, but comparable thresholds and criteria for freshwater and marine ecosystems are also needed. These are the first steps in an international consultation process that will lead to a unified proposal to be presented at the next World Conservation Congress in 2012.     

Trend in the Status of Breeding Bird Fauna in British Columbia, Canada, Based on the IUCN Red List Index Method

Abstract:  The World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List Index (RLI) is used to measure global trends in the status of biodiversity. We examined how the index might be used to measure the trend in the status of indigenous breeding birds in British Columbia between 1992 and 2006. We followed the RLI method described by Butchart et al. (2004, 2007) as closely as possible . Because IUCN Red List assessments at the regional level are not available in British Columbia, we used NatureServe S (subnational) ranking data. We calculated three index trend lines. The first two of these allowed us to compare an index based on our original data to one based on data that had been retrospectively corrected; the latter produced a smooth, flat line. A third trend line, based on the corrected data but excluding species new to province since 1947, produced a gently sloping downward trend. Ongoing immigration of bird species in and out of British Columbia added to the complexity of interpreting our regional RLI-type index, especially because our S-rank data did not incorporate transboundary "rescue" effects. Because the RLI is scaled so that the maximum value is based on a state in which all species are simultaneously ranked as least concern, it may exaggerate the highest potential status of intrinsically vulnerable species. A simpler, more intuitive graphic allows reporting that is less dependent on context. We believe the RLI approach holds useful innovation for an indicator of change in biodiversity within jurisdictional boundaries.     

A critical review of the precautionary approach of the IUCN impact classification for non-native taxa

The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) proposes the use of the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa to standardize the classification of introduced species (IS) based on their environmental impact. The IUCN invoked the precautionary principle (PP) via 2 rules: the impact assigned to a taxon must be the maximum recorded impact across different impact assessments, and when the main driver of environmental damage is unclear, it must be assumed to be caused by the IS. The validity of PP is conditioned on the degree of emergency that warrants urgent decisions and on the scientific evidence demonstrating the advantages of applying a preventive measure. The application of an impact classification system does not arise in the context of an emergency that requires management; it occurs before the decision-making phase. Thus, PP should not be used in early steps of the risk analysis process. The IUCN also did not provide enough scientific basis to justify the use of PP. Instead, the PP rules appear to be rooted primarily in the ethical value system underlying conservation science. Conservationists assign intrinsic value to native species by virtue of their roles and relationships within ecological and evolutionary systems and processes; thus, individuals introduced in new environments not only cease to have value because they are no longer part of that natural diversity and lack those links with the rest of the ecosystem, but they become a threat to what conservationists value most. The consequence of this belief is that all introduced taxa will have an impact at some level, suggesting that values justify the PP rules.     

Effects of roost specialization on extinction risk in bats

Understanding causes and consequences of ecological specialization is of major concern in conservation. Specialist species are particularly vulnerable to human activities. If their food or habitats are depleted or lost, they may not be able to exploit alternative resources, and population losses may result. We examined International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List bat data and the number of roosts used per species (accounting for phylogenetic independence) to determine whether roost specialization is correlated with extinction risk. We found a significant correlation between the IUCN Red List category and the number of roost types used. Species that use fewer roost types had a higher risk of extinction. We found that caves and similar structures were the most widely used roost types, particularly by species under some level of risk of extinction. Many critically endangered, endangered, or vulnerable species used natural roosts exclusively, whereas less threatened species used natural and human‐made roosts. Our results suggest that roost loss, particularly in species that rely on a single roost type, may be linked to extinction risk. Our focus on a single life history trait prevented us from determining how important this variable is for extinction risk relative to other variables, but we have taken a first step toward prioritizing conservation actions. Our results also suggest that roost specialization may exacerbate population declines due to other risk factors, such as hunting pressure or habitat loss, and thus that management actions to preserve species under risk of extinction should prioritize protection of roosting sites.     

Use of Surrogates to Predict the Stressor Response of Imperiled Species

Abstract: Rare or narrowly distributed species may be threatened by stressors to which they have never been exposed or for which data are very limited. In such cases the species response cannot be predicted on the basis of directly measured data, but may be inferred from the response of one or more appropriate surrogate species. Here, I propose a practical way to use the stressor response of one or more surrogate species to develop a working hypothesis or model of the stressor response of the target species. The process has 4 steps: (1) identify one or more candidate surrogate species, (2) model the relationship between the stressor and the response variable of interest for the surrogate species, (3) adapt the stressor–response relationship from the surrogate species to a model for the target species, possibly using Bayesian methods, and (4) incorporate additional data as they become available and adjust the response model of the target species appropriately. I applied the approach to an endangered fish species, the amber darter (Percina antesella), which is potentially threatened by urbanization. I used a Bayesian approach to combine data from a surrogate species (the bronze darter[Percina palmaris]) with available data for the amber darter to produce a model of expected amber darter response. Although this approach requires difficult decisions on the part of the manager, especially in the selection of surrogate species, its value lies in the fact that all assumptions are clearly stated in the form of hypotheses, which may be scrutinized and tested. It therefore provides a rational basis for instituting management policy even in the face of considerable uncertainty.     

Cost-effective mitigation strategies to reduce bycatch threats to cetaceans identified using return-on-investment analysis

Globally, fisheries bycatch threatens the survival of many whale and dolphin species. Strategies for reducing bycatch can be expensive. Management is inclined to prioritize investment in actions that are inexpensive, but these may not be the most effective. We used an economic tool, return-on-investment, to identify cost-effective measures to reduce cetacean bycatch in the trawl, net, and line fisheries of Australia. We examined 3 management actions: spatial closures, acoustic deterrents, and gear modifications. We compared an approach for which the primary goal was to reduce the cost of bycatch reduction to fisheries with an approach that aims solely to protect whale and dolphin species. Based on cost-effectiveness and at a fine spatial resolution, we identified the management strategies across Australia that most effectively abated dolphin and whale bycatch. Although trawl-net modifications were the cheapest strategy overall, there were many locations where spatial closures were the most cost-effective solution, despite their high costs to fisheries, due to their effectiveness in reducing all fisheries interactions. Our method can be used to delineate strategies to reduce bycatch threats to mobile marine species across diverse fisheries at relevant spatial scales to improve conservation outcomes.     

Performance of IUCN proxies for generation length

One of the criteria used by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) to assess threat status is the rate of decline in abundance over 3 generations or 10 years, whichever is longer. The traditional method for calculating generation length (T) uses age‐specific survival and fecundity, but these data are rarely available. Consequently, proxies that require less information are often used, which introduces potential biases. The IUCN recommends 2 proxies based on adult mortality rate, = α + 1/d, and reproductive life span, = α + z^*RL, where α is age at first reproduction, d is adult mortality rate, RL is reproductive life span, and z is a coefficient derived from data for comparable species. We used published life tables for 78 animal and plant populations to evaluate precision and bias of these proxies by comparing and with true generation length. Mean error rates in estimating T were 31% for and 20% for , but error rates for were 16% when we subtracted 1 year ( ), as suggested by theory; also provided largely unbiased estimates regardless of the true generation length. Performance of depends on compilation of detailed data for comparable species, but our results suggest taxonomy is not a reliable indicator of comparability. All 3 proxies depend heavily on a reliable estimate of age at first reproduction, as we illustrated with 2 test species. The relatively large mean errors for all proxies emphasized the importance of collecting the detailed life‐history information necessary to calculate true generation length. Unfortunately, publication of such data is less common than it was decades ago. We identified generic patterns of age‐specific change in vital rates that can be used to predict expected patterns of bias from applying .     

Effects of uncertainty and variability on population declines and IUCN Red List classifications

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Categories and Criteria is a quantitative framework for classifying species according to extinction risk. Population models may be used to estimate extinction risk or population declines. Uncertainty and variability arise in threat classifications through measurement and process error in empirical data and uncertainty in the models used to estimate extinction risk and population declines. Furthermore, species traits are known to affect extinction risk. We investigated the effects of measurement and process error, model type, population growth rate, and age at first reproduction on the reliability of risk classifications based on projected population declines on IUCN Red List classifications. We used an age‐structured population model to simulate true population trajectories with different growth rates, reproductive ages and levels of variation, and subjected them to measurement error. We evaluated the ability of scalar and matrix models parameterized with these simulated time series to accurately capture the IUCN Red List classification generated with true population declines. Under all levels of measurement error tested and low process error, classifications were reasonably accurate; scalar and matrix models yielded roughly the same rate of misclassifications, but the distribution of errors differed; matrix models led to greater overestimation of extinction risk than underestimations; process error tended to contribute to misclassifications to a greater extent than measurement error; and more misclassifications occurred for fast, rather than slow, life histories. These results indicate that classifications of highly threatened taxa (i.e., taxa with low growth rates) under criterion A are more likely to be reliable than for less threatened taxa when assessed with population models. Greater scrutiny needs to be placed on data used to parameterize population models for species with high growth rates, particularly when available evidence indicates a potential transition to higher risk categories.     

Building on IUCN Regional Red Lists to Produce Lists of Species of Conservation Priority: a Model with Irish Bees

Abstract:  A World Conservation Union (IUCN) regional red list is an objective assessment of regional extinction risk and is not the same as a list of conservation priority species. Recent research reveals the widespread, but incorrect, assumption that IUCN Red List categories represent a hierarchical list of priorities for conservation action. We developed a simple eight-step priority-setting process and applied it to the conservation of bees in Ireland. Our model is based on the national red list but also considers the global significance of the national population; the conservation status at global, continental, and regional levels; key biological, economic, and societal factors; and is compatible with existing conservation agreements and legislation. Throughout Ireland, almost one-third of the bee fauna is threatened (30 of 100 species), but our methodology resulted in a reduced list of only 17 priority species. We did not use the priority species list to broadly categorize species to the conservation action required; instead, we indicated the individual action required for all threatened, near-threatened, and data-deficient species on the national red list based on the IUCN's conservation-actions template file. Priority species lists will strongly influence prioritization of conservation actions at national levels, but action should not be exclusive to listed species. In addition, all species on this list will not necessarily require immediate action. Our method is transparent, reproducible, and readily applicable to other taxa and regions.     

Characterizing species co-occurrence patterns of imperfectly detected stream fishes to inform species reintroduction efforts

Species reintroduction efforts can improve the recovery of imperiled species, but successful implementation of this conservation strategy requires a thorough understanding of the abiotic and biotic factors influencing species viability. Species interactions are especially understudied, in particular by omitting the effect of imperfect detection on negative, neutral, or positive associations within a community. Using repeat surveys from 5 southern Ontario, Canada, Great Lakes tributaries, we quantified species co-occurrence patterns with the eastern sand darter (ESD) (Ammocrypta pellucida), listed as federally threatened, and characterized how imperfect detection during sampling can influence inference regarding these relationships. We used a probabilistic framework that included 3 approaches of increasing complexity: probabilistic co-occurrence analysis ignoring imperfect detection; single-species occupancy models with subsequent co-occurrence analysis; and 2-species occupancy models. We then used our occupancy models to predict suitable sites for potential future reintroduction efforts while considering the influence of negative species interactions. Based on the observed data, ESD showed several positive associations with co-occurring species; however, species associations differed when imperfect detection was considered. Specifically, a negative association between ESD and rosyface shiner (Notropis rubellus) was observed only after accounting for imperfect detection in the Grand River. Alternatively, positive associations in the Grand River between ESD and northern hogsucker (Hypentelium nigricans) and silver shiner (Notropis photogenis) were observed regardless of whether imperfect detection was accounted for. Our models predicted several potential reintroduction sites for ESD in formerly occupied watersheds with high levels of certainty. Overall, our results demonstrate the importance of investigating imperfect detection and species co-occurrence when planning reintroduction efforts.     

Quantitative tools for implementing the new definition of significant portion of the range in the U.S. Endangered Species Act

In 2014, the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service announced a new policy interpretation for the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). According to the act, a species must be listed as threatened or endangered if it is determined to be threatened or endangered in a significant portion of its range (SPR). The 2014 policy seeks to provide consistency by establishing that a portion of the range should be considered significant if the associated individuals’ “removal would cause the entire species to become endangered or threatened.” We reviewed 20 quantitative techniques used to assess whether a portion of a species’ range is significant according to the new guidance. Our assessments are based on the 3R criteria—redundancy (i.e., buffering from catastrophe), resiliency (i.e., ability to withstand stochasticity), and representation (i.e., ability to evolve)—that the FWS uses to determine if a species merits listing. We identified data needs for each quantitative technique and considered which methods could be implemented given the data limitations typical of rare species. We also identified proxies for the 3Rs that may be used with limited data. To assess potential data availability, we evaluated 7 example species by accessing data in their species status assessments, which document all the information used during a listing decision. In all species, an SPR could be evaluated with at least one metric for each of the 3Rs robustly or with substantial assumptions. Resiliency assessments appeared most constrained by limited data, and many species lacked information on connectivity between subpopulations, genetic variation, and spatial variability in vital rates. These data gaps will likely make SPR assessments for species with complex life histories or that cross national boundaries difficult. Although we reviewed techniques for the ESA, other countries require identification of significant areas and could benefit from this research.     

Identifying the possibilities and pitfalls of conducting IUCN Red List assessments from remotely sensed habitat information based on insights from poorly known Cuban mammals

The International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Threatened Species (RLS) is the key global tool for objective, repeatable assessment of species’ extinction risk status, and plays an essential role in tracking biodiversity loss and guiding conservation action. Satellite remote sensing (SRS) data sets on global ecosystem distributions and functioning show exciting potential for informing range-based RLS assessment, but their incorporation has been restricted by low temporal resolution and coverage of data sets, lack of incorporation of degradation-driven habitat loss, and noninclusion of assumptions related to identification of changing habitat distributions for taxa with varying habitat dependency and ecologies. For poorly known mangrove-associated Cuban hutias (Mesocapromys spp.), we tested the impact of possible assumptions regarding these issues on range-based RLS assessment outcomes. Specifically, we used annual (1985–2018) Landsat data and land-cover classification and habitat degradation analyses across different internal time series slices to simulate range-based RLS assessments for our case study taxa to explore potential assessment uncertainty arising from temporal SRS data set coverage, incorporating proxies of (change in) habitat quality, and assumptions on spatial scaling of habitat extent for RLS parameter generation. We found extensive variation in simulated species-specific range-based RLS assessments, and this variation was mostly associated with the time series over which parameters were estimated. However, results of some species-specific assessments differed by up to 3 categories (near threatened to critically endangered) within the same time series, due to the effects of incorporating habitat quality and the spatial scaling used in RLS parameter estimation. Our results showed that a one-size-fits-all approach to incorporating SRS information in RLS assessment is inappropriate, and we urge caution in conducting range-based assessments with SRS for species for which habitat dependence on specific ecosystem types is incompletely understood. We propose novel revisions to parameter spatial scaling guidelines to improve integration of existing time series data on ecosystem change into the RLS assessment process.     

The Threat of Disease Increases as Species Move Toward Extinction

At local scales, infectious disease is a common driver of population declines, but globally it is an infrequent contributor to species extinction and endangerment. For species at risk of extinction from disease important questions remain unanswered, including when does disease become a threat to species and does it co‐occur, predictably, with other threats? Using newly compiled data from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, we examined the relative role and co‐occurrence of threats associated with amphibians, birds, and mammals at 6 levels of extinction risk (i.e., Red List status categories: least concern, near threatened, vulnerable, endangered, critically endangered, and extinct in the wild/extinct). We tested the null hypothesis that the proportion of species threatened by disease is the same in all 6 Red List status categories. Our approach revealed a new method for determining when disease most frequently threatens species at risk of extinction. The proportion of species threatened by disease varied significantly between IUCN status categories and linearly increased for amphibians, birds, and all species combined as these taxa move from move from least concern to critically endangered. Disease was infrequently the single contributing threat. However, when a species was negatively affected by a major threat other than disease (e.g., invasive species, land‐use change) that species was more likely to be simultaneously threatened by disease than species that had no other threats. Potential drivers of these trends include ecological factors, clustering of phylogenetically related species in Red List status categories, discovery bias among species at greater risk of extinction, and availability of data. We echo earlier calls for baseline data on the presence of parasites and pathogens in species when they show the first signs of extinction risk and arguably before. La Amenaza de Enfermedades Incrementa a Medida que las Especies se Aproximan a la Extinción     

Translating effects of inbreeding depression on component vital rates to overall population growth in endangered bighorn sheep

Evidence of inbreeding depression is commonly detected from the fitness traits of animals, yet its effects on population growth rates of endangered species are rarely assessed. We examined whether inbreeding depression was affecting Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis sierrae), a subspecies listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Our objectives were to characterize genetic variation in this subspecies; test whether inbreeding depression affects bighorn sheep vital rates (adult survival and female fecundity); evaluate whether inbreeding depression may limit subspecies recovery; and examine the potential for genetic management to increase population growth rates. Genetic variation in 4 populations of Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep was among the lowest reported for any wild bighorn sheep population, and our results suggest that inbreeding depression has reduced adult female fecundity. Despite this population sizes and growth rates predicted from matrix-based projection models demonstrated that inbreeding depression would not substantially inhibit the recovery of Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep populations in the next approximately 8 bighorn sheep generations (48 years). Furthermore, simulations of genetic rescue within the subspecies did not suggest that such activities would appreciably increase population sizes or growth rates during the period we modeled (10 bighorn sheep generations, 60 years). Only simulations that augmented the Mono Basin population with genetic variation from other subspecies, which is not currently a management option, predicted significant increases in population size. Although we recommend that recovery activities should minimize future losses of genetic variation, genetic effects within these endangered populations-either negative (inbreeding depression) or positive (within subspecies genetic rescue)-appear unlikely to dramatically compromise or stimulate short-term conservation efforts. The distinction between detecting the effects of inbreeding depression on a component vital rate (e.g., fecundity) and the effects of inbreeding depression on population growth underscores the importance of quantifying inbreeding costs relative to population dynamics to effectively manage endangered populations.     

Quantifying species recovery and conservation success to develop an IUCN Green List of Species

Stopping declines in biodiversity is critically important, but it is only a first step toward achieving more ambitious conservation goals. The absence of an objective and practical definition of species recovery that is applicable across taxonomic groups leads to inconsistent targets in recovery plans and frustrates reporting and maximization of conservation impact. We devised a framework for comprehensively assessing species recovery and conservation success. We propose a definition of a fully recovered species that emphasizes viability, ecological functionality, and representation; and use counterfactual approaches to quantify degree of recovery. This allowed us to calculate a set of 4 conservation metrics that demonstrate impacts of conservation efforts to date (conservation legacy); identify dependence of a species on conservation actions (conservation dependence); quantify expected gains resulting from conservation action in the medium term (conservation gain); and specify requirements to achieve maximum plausible recovery over the long term (recovery potential). These metrics can incentivize the establishment and achievement of ambitious conservation targets. We illustrate their use by applying the framework to a vertebrate, an invertebrate, and a woody and an herbaceous plant. Our approach is a preliminary framework for an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Green List of Species, which was mandated by a resolution of IUCN members in 2012. Although there are several challenges in applying our proposed framework to a wide range of species, we believe its further development, implementation, and integration with the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species will help catalyze a positive and ambitious vision for conservation that will drive sustained conservation action.     

Effects of anthropogenic landscapes on population maintenance of waterbirds

Anthropogenic impacts have reduced natural areas but increased the area of anthropogenic landscapes. There is debate about whether anthropogenic landscapes (e.g., farmlands, orchards, and fish ponds) provide alternatives to natural habitat and under what circumstances. We considered whether anthropogenic landscapes can mitigate population declines for waterbirds. We collected data on population trends and biological traits of 1203 populations of 579 species across the planet. Using Bayesian generalized linear mixed models, we tested whether the ability of a species to use an anthropogenic landscape can predict population trends of waterbird globally and of species of conservation concern. Anthropogenic landscapes benefited population maintenance of common but not less-common species. Conversely, the use of anthropogenic landscapes was associated with population declines for threatened species. Our findings delineate some limitations to the ability of anthropogenic landscapes to mitigate population declines, suggesting that the maintenance of global waterbird populations depends on protecting remaining natural areas and improving the habitat quality in anthropogenic landscapes. Article impact statement: Protecting natural areas and improving the quality of anthropogenic landscapes as habitat are both needed to achieve effective conservation.     

Extinction risk of the endemic vascular flora of Kauai,Hawaii, based on IUCN assessments

The International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Threatened Species (IUCN Red List) is the world's most comprehensive information source on the global conservation status of species. Governmental agencies and conservation organizations increasingly rely on IUCN Red List assessments to develop conservation policies and priorities. Funding agencies use the assessments as evaluation criteria, and researchers use meta-analysis of red-list data to address fundamental and applied conservation science questions. However, the circa 143,000 IUCN assessments represent a fraction of the world's biodiversity and are biased in regional and organismal coverage. These biases may affect conservation priorities, funding, and uses of these data to understand global patterns. Isolated oceanic islands are characterized by high endemicity, but the unique biodiversity of many islands is experiencing high extinction rates. The archipelago of Hawaii has one of the highest levels of endemism of any floristic region; 90% of its 1367 native vascular plant taxa are classified as endemic. We used the IUCN's assessment of the complete single-island endemic (SIE) vascular plant flora of Kauai, Hawaii, to assess the proportion and drivers of decline of threatened plants in an oceanic island setting. We compared the IUCN assessments with federal, state, and other local assessments of Kauai species or taxa of conservation concern. Finally, we conducted a preliminary assessment for all 1044 native vascular plants of Hawaii based on IUCN criterion B by estimating area of occupancy, extent of occurrence, and number of locations to determine whether the pattern found for the SIE vascular flora of Kauai is comparable to the native vascular flora of the Hawaiian Islands. We compared our results with patterns observed for assessments of other floras. According to IUCN, 256 SIE vascular plant taxa are threatened with extinction and 5% are already extinct. This is the highest extinction risk reported for any flora to date. The preliminary assessment of the native vascular flora of Hawaii showed that 72% (753 taxa) is threatened. The flora of Hawaii may be one of the world's most threatened; thus, increased and novel conservation measures in the state and on other remote oceanic islands are urgently needed.     

Using the past to contextualize anthropogenic impacts on the present and future distribution of an endemic Caribbean mammal

Island species are difficult to conserve because they face the synergy of climate change, invasive species, deforestation, and increasing human population densities in areas where land mass is shrinking. The Caribbean island of Hispaniola presents particular challenges because of geopolitical complexities that span 2 countries and hinder coordinated management of species across the island. We employed species distribution modeling to evaluate the impacts of climatic change and anthropogenic activities on the distribution of an endemic mammal of conservation concern, the Hispaniolan solenodon (Solenodon paradoxus). We aggregated occurrence points for this poorly known species for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present (1975–2016) based on museum collections, online biodiversity databases, and new field surveys. We quantified degree of overlap between periods and scenarios with Schoener's D. Through a conservation paleobiology lens, we found that over time humans played an increasing role in shaping the distribution of S. paradoxus, thus, providing a foundation for developing conservation strategies on appropriate spatiotemporal scales. Human population density was the single most important predictor of S. paradoxus occurrence. Densities >166 people/km² corresponded to a near-zero probability of occurrence. Models that accounted for climate but not anthropogenic variables falsely identified suitable habitat in Haiti, where on-the-ground surveys confirm habitat is unavailable. Climate-only models also significantly overestimated the potential for habitat connectivity between isolated populations. Our work highlights that alternative fates for S. paradoxus in the Anthropocene exist across the political border between the Dominican Republic and Haiti due to the fundamentally different economic and political realities of each country. Relationships in the fossil record confirm that Hispaniola's sociopolitical boundary is not biologically significant but instead represents one imposed on the island's fauna in the past 500 years by colonial activity. Our approach reveals how a paleontological perspective can contribute to concrete management insights.     

Using Wikipedia to measure public interest in biodiversity and conservation

The recent growth of online big data offers opportunities for rapid and inexpensive measurement of public interest. Conservation culturomics is an emerging research area that uses online data to study human–nature relationships for conservation. Methods for conservation culturomics, though promising, are still being developed and refined. We considered the potential of Wikipedia, the online encyclopedia, as a resource for conservation culturomics and outlined methods for using Wikipedia data in conservation. Wikipedia's large size, widespread use, underlying data structure, and open access to both its content and usage analytics make it well suited to conservation culturomics research. Limitations of Wikipedia data include the lack of location information associated with some metadata and limited information on the motivations of many users. Seven methodological steps to consider when using Wikipedia data in conservation include metadata selection, temporality, taxonomy, language representation, Wikipedia geography, physical and biological geography, and comparative metrics. Each of these methodological decisions can affect measures of online interest. As a case study, we explored these themes by analyzing 757 million Wikipedia page views associated with the Wikipedia pages for 10,099 species of birds across 251 Wikipedia language editions. We found that Wikipedia data have the potential to generate insight for conservation and are particularly useful for quantifying patterns of public interest at large scales.     

Effects of amusing memes on concern for unappealing species

There is limited knowledge of the mechanisms that can inspire people's concern and engagement in the protection of unpopular and unappealing species. We analyzed Polish people's interest in themed internet memes featuring the proboscis monkey (Nasalis larvatus) and the consequences of this interest for conservation marketing. We examined Google Trends data, used Google Search, and searched popular media materials to estimate interest in the proboscis monkey in Poland. Photos of the proboscis monkey when presented with humor in internet memes attracted as much interest as usually more popular species (e.g., koala, panda, and orangutan) used in marketing by nongovernmental organizations. Amusing internet memes spread by social media positively correlated with increasing interest in the unappealing species, such as proboscis monkey. Interest in amusing internet memes positively correlated with individuals’ decisions to donate to 6 crowdfunding actions. Thus, conservation marketing that includes amusing memes and social media may provide a worthwhile complement to traditional campaigns and are likely to influence individuals who are unaffected by the usual means.