Sub-regional integration in Sudan: the key to food security and recovery

The signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in Sudan has created a new opportunity for peace. Approaches to food security must now be reoriented based on the agro-ecological diversity in Sudan. WFP is in a unique position to catalyse an approach to food security that meets immediate needs and contributes to long-term recovery, in collaboration with the Government of National Unity (GNU) and the Government of South Sudan (GOSS). Aggregate food production in Sudan has increased in the past decade. At sub-regional levels, however, many areas remain food insecure. Major research must be undertaken to identify optimum levels of food production and barriers to access to food at sub-regional levels as a first step towards linking deficit areas with areas of surplus. Initiatives must also be undertaken to facilitate increased integration between sub-regions. Increased sub-regional linkages could ensure more efficient delivery of food in the short term as well as recovery and economic growth in the long term.     

From food aid to livelihoods support: rethinking the role of WFP in eastern Sudan

Despite more than 20 years of distribution of free emergency food in eastern Sudan (38 years in the case of refugees) Global Acute Malnutrition rates are currently the highest in the country. There has been no real improvement in the chronic livelihoods vulnerability that affects people in the region—particularly pastoralists. Food security must be seen from an informed livelihoods perspective. While food aid may still be required as part of transition, WFP must rethink its assistance strategy and advocate for complementarity in the efforts by development actors working across a range of sectors. Alternative models and interventions focused on the rehabilitation of markets and the development of' cargo nets' for the destitute, including cash transfers, must be developed and tested. Land tenure issues should be given particular attention. Food aid will probably remain an important element in the overall response, but its significance relative to other less developed forms of interventions should be reassessed.     

大跨径斜拉桥施工双悬臂状态抖振响应分析及控制

斜拉桥在施工状态时柔性大、振动频率较低,在紊流风的作用下梁端会产生较大的竖向抖振位移,而塔的摇头运动会在塔根引起较大的纵向弯矩。以某三塔斜拉桥为例,根据大跨度桥梁抖振响应有限元理论,分析和比较了5种不同的风缆设置方案以及设置临时支撑桩方案的抑振效果,并提出了一种有效的抑振措施。     

Food aid and food crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa: Statistical trends and implications*

This paper documents the rapid expansion and changes in food aid flows to Sub-Saharan Africa up to mid-1985. Trends for Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole and for the more seriously affected countries are examined, as are the comparative experiences of food aid of individual countries in the region. Table 11 lists the Sub-Saharan African countries and indicates the most seriously affected food-short countries, as defined by the WFP/FAO task force. It should be borne in mind that some practical problems exist in compiling data on food aid. These include lack of availability of reliable data, especially of most recent data; lack of common terminology and definitions; and different accounting systems. These data problems are sometimes a source of confusion. However, the basic facts are clear: food aid gradually emerged during the early 1980s as a resource too often of considerable significance to many countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. These trends were only accelerated with the crisis of 1984-1985. These facts provide a point of reference for further analysis of the sources of the crisis, its actual dimensions and consequences.     

顾及模型误差的基坑位移监测数据处理方法

由于基坑地质及观测环境的多样性和复杂性,基坑位移监测数据处理的理论模型与实际模型之间存在着模型误差。若模型误差显著,则所得位移拟合模型的精度较差,将影响后继变形分析的准确性。针对这一问题进行了深入研究,提出了顾及模型误差的最小二乘配置法,并指出在考虑观测值中可能存在粗差的情况下应进一步采用稳健估计法改善基坑监测面的拟合精度。推导了顾及基坑位移模型误差的最小二乘配置法的计算公式,说明了计算步骤。通过对多个实例的计算分析可知,该方法对基坑监测面拟合模型的精度增益能达到35%~48%,是一种比较实用的基坑位移监测数据处理方法。     

隔震建筑概念设计的基本问题

在隔震建筑的设计过程中应首先进行概念设计,在总体上把握隔震结构设计的主要方面。本文论述了隔震建筑概念设计的基本问题。在概念设计阶段,首先应在目标设计概念指导下,综合隔震建筑安全性与投资水平的平衡,确定建筑是采用隔震结构还是抗震结构。在进行隔震设计时,应根据输入地震动的加速度幅值和主频,建筑的允许加速度等值确定隔震结构的固有频率;应根据隔震系数和隔震层的允许位移合理确定隔震层总体刚度的范围。对隔震建筑的上部结构,应选择有利房型,合理布置结构,减小结构的不利地震反应。     

Planning environmental sanitation programmes in emergencies

Environmental sanitation programmes are vital for tackling environmental-related disease and ensuring human dignity in emergency situations. If they are to have maximum impact they must be planned in a rapid but systematic manner. An appropriate planning process comprises five key stages: rapid assessment and priority setting; outline programme design; immediate action; detailed programme design; and implementation. The assessment should be based on carefully selected data, which are analysed via comparison with suitable minimum objectives. How the intervention should be prioritised is determined through objective ranking of different environmental sanitation sector needs. Next, a programme design outline is produced to identify immediate and longer-term intervention activities and to guarantee that apposite resources are made available. Immediate action is taken to meet acute emergency needs while the detailed programme design takes shape. This entails in-depth consultation with the affected community and comprehensive planning of activities and resource requirements. Implementation can then begin, which should involve pertinent management and monitoring strategies.     

The rationality of resistance: alternatives for engagement in complex emergencies

The different conceptualisations of conflict in the complex emergency literature have profound implications on the perception of the agency of different groups and the prospects for conflict management. While much recent analysis has focused on the rational political and economic functions of violence, relatively little analysis has focused on why the majority of people chose not to resort to violence. Using Foucault's analysis of power relations, a new framework for conflict analysis is proposed which includes non-violent resistance as well as violence as a means of domination. Non-violent resistance is explored as a rational, highly adaptable response to acts of domination. A comprehensive understanding of conflict must recognise local forms of resistance and identify the barriers and opportunities for the engagement of the international humanitarian community with these groups. This engagement can be used to foster capacities for the creation of legitimate, inclusive, non-violent political and economic processes in the attempt to provide alternatives for everyone in the conflict. If the purpose of the study of complex emergencies is to understand the nature of various conflicts and, based on that understanding, make recommendations for possible routes to conflict management, the analysis of local resistance and efforts to foster it must become a major aspect of the research agenda.     

基于归一化的地震灾区道路危险性综合评价

道路选择问题是地震灾后应急救援必须解决的问题之一.为了对救援道路进行合理的选择,需要对灾区道路危险性进行综合评价.现有的综合评价中较少考虑归一化方法的选取对评价结果的影响,该文使用EM(Entropy Method)改进TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarit...     

Looking beyond food aid to livelihoods, protection and partnerships: strategies for WFP in the Darfur states

The humanitarian crisis in Darfur remains extremely serious. The optimism that followed the signing of the Abuja Peace Accord was followed by a rapid deterioration in security on the ground in part associated with increasing factionalism in various rebel movements. This paper briefly reviews the evolution of the crisis, its impact on lives and livelihoods and the response by the World Food Programme (WFP) to June 2006. The major challenges and issues facing the food aid programme in the previous 18 months included: dealing with insecurity while maintaining or even extending programme outreach; the need to link protection with assistance more explicitly; and determining the wider impact of food aid programming on the processes and institutions linked with the conflict. The paper discusses the main strategic issues facing WFP in the future such as: integrating security and protection with needs assessments and operational decisions, broadening response strategies beyond food aid and bringing livelihoods to the fore, the need to review cost-efficiency, promoting partnerships and strengthening national and regional capacities.     

灾害医学救援中伤病员分类工作研究

灾害条件下的医学救援,要及时准确地处理大批伤病员,首先需要迅速实施伤病员分类。目前,除军队医疗机构外,其他实施灾害医学救援的各级救治机构,都还没有真正建立健全伤员分类组织,应引起重视。各级参加灾害医学救援的医疗救治机构,都应成立有经验的医疗技术人员或管理人员组成的分类组;制定出分类标准;制备分类标志和加强分类训练。做到伤病员分类迅速准确,保证救治和后送工作的顺利进行。     

ENHANCING EVACUATION WARNING COMPLIANCE: SUGGESTIONS FOREMERGENCY PLANNING*

This review of incentives to evacuate is meaningful largely in the context of planning for and managing the consequences of the impact of riverine floods. Of course, incentives do not constitute an emergency plan. At best, they should be seen as suggestions for structuring some elements of a plan. Furthermore, the enumeration of incentives presented here is meant to be suggestive rather than exhaustive. A primary objective of this paper has been to underscore the importance of advance planning in coping with hazards and to argue that, even though limited, existing research can be productively used in the planning process. The incentives described here are based upon or drawn from empirical research on people's performance under flood disaster conditions. This reflects the view that it is important to build emergency planning around people's known reaction patterns. Too often emergency plans which are administratively devised turn out to be based upon misconceptions of how people react (cf. Drabek and Stephenson, 1971, p. 202; Dynes et al., 1972, p. 31) and, therefore, potentially create more difficulties than they solve. One must be cautioned, however, that although our data indicate that people say they would support the idea of various evacuation incentives examined here, these are attitudinal data and not performance data. Thus, the real test of evacuation incentives lies in their implementation and in evaluation data on pilot programs which, unfortunately, do not presently exist. The outlook for the feasibility of developing and utilizing evacuation incentives appears to be positive, though, judging from responses to our interviews. In the final analysis, it would appear to be wise to develop emergency plans which guide and channel citizen actions into complementary and productive protection behavior patterns. The present discussion of incentives to evacuate is intended to encourage data-based emergency planning.     

地震人员伤亡快速评估模型研究

每年地震都会给社会造成巨大人员伤亡,如果震后能迅速预知地震人员伤亡数量,这对挽救生命损失是十分有意义的。统计了近10年来中国大陆数10次强震、中强震灾害损失,根据影响伤亡的主要因素,用线性回归分析法,建立地震人员伤亡快速评估模型,并对模型进行验证,使之可用于地震预警。     

The Response of the South Manchester Accident Rescue Team (SMART) to the Armenian Earthquake and Lockerbie Air Disaster: A Report to the Prime Minister's Office

The delay in receiving authorisation for the despatch of SMART significantly reduced our overall effectiveness. The majority of injured survivors were extracted during this time and our special expertise could have saved a significant number of lives. The episode has provided SMART with unique experience for a British medical team and this knowledge should not be wasted. In contrast to other major western countries the British response was fragmented. We have no central stockpile of equipment and no official response team. The British who responded were independent of each other even when from the same service. The quality of the individual British teams was as good as any and often better. However, the ability of other nations to coordinate their response centrally and draw from a pool of workers already used to working together, improved both their efficiency and effectiveness. There are great difficulties in communication during any disaster and these increase with the scale of the disaster. Incoming rescue workers were given false or misleading information and rumour was widespread. Even when few people were found alive rescue workers expressed a strong need for a medical presence in case they discovered an injured person or they them selves became ill or injured. We were told repeatedly by experienced rescuers that we were the first team of British senior doctors they had met at the front line of a disaster and they were extremely pleased to see us. Transport was a major problem both in terms of vehicles and local knowledge. It was not thought to be within the remit of a medical team to make provision for food and shelter and this was confirmed in Moscow prior to departure for Yerevan. In retrospect this was a mistake and reduced the time we could stay at the front line. If we had not equipped ourselves with special clothing we could not have gone to the front line. A medical team must be part of larger team of rescue workers. Within this unit there will be provision for food, shelter, transport and communication as well as medical and surgical equipment.     

中国实行洪水保险的可行性研究

在回顾洪水保险实施现状的基础上，指出了我国洪水保险与世界洪水保险的差距，根据我国洪水灾害的特点和我国经济体制的特点，提出了符合我国国情的洪水保险措施：建立洪水保险准备金是进行洪水保险的前提，洪水保险的特殊性决定了洪水保险不可能是个营利性的保险，因此要保证洪水保险的正常运行必须有社会和国家的扶持，洪水保险机构应按流域设立，中国洪水灾害发生的空间特点决定了洪水保险机构只能按流域设置，洪水灾害发生的时间特点决定了洪水保险的对象必须是固定资产，而不应该是流动资产，遭受洪水灾害影响最大的是农田，因此农田应该是洪水保险的对象，不应该是种植在农田里的农作物，另外可以通过农业保险对不同农作物进行保险，洪水保险需要洪水风险的分析和研究作技术支撑，没有科学的洪水风险分析，洪水保险很难顺利进行，加强与洪水保险有关的各方面法律法规的建立，在洪水保险法中明确界定洪水保险的保险对象，明确保险双方的义务和权利。     

大渡河干海子滑坡稳定性研究

干海子滑坡位于大渡河流域,规模巨大.为研究该滑坡的稳定性,在对滑坡基本特征及变形破坏特征等深入研究的基础上,采用极限平衡法(Geo-slope软件)和有限差分法(FLAC-3D软件)对该滑坡的稳定性和应力应变特征进行了计算、模拟.稳定性计算模拟主要从深层、浅层及局部稳定三方面入手分析,计算模拟结果与滑坡的宏现地质现象均...     

关于发布地震预报的抉择

地震预报是人们讨论的一个热门话题。当前国际上普遍认同的一个基本事实是 ,地震预报水平远远未达到实用化的阶段。无庸置疑的是 ,作出发布短临预报的决策 ,是防震减灾工作中一项难度最大的工作。它长期困扰着各国地震工作部门和政府行政部门。公开发布地震预报 ,主要考虑因素有 :短临地震预报能力 ,作短临预报需付出的代价 ,以及地震预报公开发布后将会取得的实际收益。对以上三个因素权衡得失 ,趋利避害 ,注重实际效果。如果我们将这三个因素用预报效益来联系 ,那么 ,预报效益则等于预报实际取得的收益与发布地震预报必须付出的代价之比。若比值大于 1,则可公开发布 ;如比值小于 1,则不宜公开发布 ;当比值接近 1时 ,需同时考虑预报意见的信度这个因素。我国不同地区由于其经济发达程度、人口密度、国土财富率相差甚大 ,因此在用上述三个因素作是否公开发布地震预报的抉择上显然其结论是不同的。本文认为 :1 5 5级以下地震 ,东部和西部直接经济损失 (人民币 )约为 8亿元和 2亿元 ,经济上公开发布代价远大于当地所取得的实际收益 ,人员伤亡不超过 10人。因此无论东、西部均不宜公开发布地震预报 ,我们将 5 5级地震定为公开发布预报的震级下限。2 对于 5 5级至 6 5级地震 ,我国东部地区的直接经济损     

试论长江三峡库区地震、地质灾害及其监测、预报与防治

通过大量资料对长江三峡库区的地震、地质灾害现状与蓄水后可能出现的潜在危险性作了深入的分析与客观的评估,从科学对策到技术措施对减轻这些灾害的可能 性作了较详细的论述,文中指出,长江三峡库区的防灾问题是一项影响整个国民经济与长江中下游人民生命财产安全的大事,要防患于未然,基于地震灾害与地质灾害成因大致相同,监测方法相似,相互又存在伴生,连发的紧密关系,建议将两个灾害的有关管理部门有机结合起来,统一规划、取长补短、将多个监测小网合成一个大网阵,联成一个大体系,责任共担,信息共享,这是长江三峡库区防灾工作的一条捷径。     

Review of Policies and Guidelines on Infant Feeding in Emergencies: Common Ground and Gaps

Recent crises in regions where exclusive breastfeeding is not the norm have highlighted the importance of effective policies and guidelines on infant feeding in emergencies. In 1993, UNICEF compiled a collection of policy and guideline documents relating to the feeding of infants in emergency situations. In June 2000 Save the Children, UK, UNICEF and the Institute of Child Health undertook a review of those documents, updating the list and identifying the common ground that exists among the different policies. The review also analysed the consistency of the policy framework, and highlighted important areas where guidelines are missing or unclear. This article is an attempt to share more widely the main issues arising from this review. The key conclusions were that, in general, there is consensus on what constitutes best practice in infant feeding, however, the lack of clarity in the respective responsibilities of key UN agencies (in particular UNICEF, UNHCR and WFP) over issues relating to co-ordination of activities which affect infant-feeding interventions constrains the implementation of systems to support best practice. Furthermore, the weak evidence base on effective and appropriate intervention strategies for supporting optimal infant feeding in emergencies means that there is poor understanding of the practical tasks needed to support mothers and minimise infant morbidity and mortality. We, therefore, have two key recommendations: first that the operational UN agencies, primarily UNICEF, examine the options for improving co-ordination on a range of activities to uphold best practice of infant feeding in emergencies; second, that urgent attention be given to developing and supporting operational research on the promotion of optimal infant-feeding interventions.