全球变化及其研究进展

全球变化及其研究进展山东大学生物系刘纯慧，王仁卿日趋加剧的人类活动已使地球大气、陆地、淡水及海洋环境发生了前所未有的变化，许多有害气体和污染物的排放改变了生态系统的生产力和物种多样性。全球变化和全球环境问题严重威胁着人类社会的生存发展。各国政府和科学...     

全球气候变化下的中国粮食安全问题研究

粮食是人类生存的基础,保障粮食安全是“2030年可持续发展议程”的重要目标之一。论文基于粮食系统视角,从全球气候变化对粮食系统的作用、保障粮食安全对全球气候变化的影响,以及应对全球气候变化的粮食安全适应性策略出发,揭示粮食安全与全球气候变化的相互作用,系统梳理全球气候变化下的中国粮食安全问题。研究结果表明：1）全球气候变化导致粮食系统不确定性增加,且对中国粮食生产的影响加剧;2）粮食需求是全球气候变化的主要驱动力,粮食生产要素的重新配置加剧了全球气候变化;3）多尺度有机结合应对全球气候变化保障粮食安全需在微观上“藏粮于技”实现提质增效,在中观上“藏粮于地”注重生态建设,在宏观上坚持市场为主导完善粮食政策体系。全球气候变化背景下,保障粮食安全研究呈现从单一学科、单一维度、单一手段向依靠多学科开展多尺度、多要素、系统综合集成研究保障粮食安全转变,从高碳粮食系统向低碳高效粮食系统转变的趋势。     

全球环境变化与全球不平等南北方的不同立场

全球环境变化给发展中国家和南北关系带来深刻影响，理解环境问题的全球不平等需要以发展中国家80年代开始的经济结构调整和沉重债务为背景。南方的环境政策优先在很大程度上与其生活的可持续性相连，而不是通常与全球环境变化的长期性风险相关，然而，全球环境变化又与发展中国家贫困人口的日常生活紧密相关。从南方的立场看，当“问题”对他们不十分迫切时，就很难同意采取措施，仅此原因，北方对全球环境变化的关切要得到成功回应，真正的全球契约就需要解决基本“发展”问题，主要是贫困。     

全球变化对我国荒漠化的影响

本文根据当前国内外科学家们对全球变化的研究及＂联合国环境与发展大会＂的决议第１２款,＂荒漠化＂的定义,探讨全球变化对我国土地荒漠化的影响。文中利用我国７００多个气象站点３０年的平均气象资料,采用联合国环境规划署环境监测系统／全球资料数据库方案活动中心以及国际上广泛应用的Ｔｈｏｒｎｔｈｗａｉｔｅ计算ＰＥ与气候分类方法,计算和绘制了当ＣＯ_２倍增、气温升高１．５－４．５℃时我国干旱区、半干旱区及半湿润干旱区（Ａｒｉｄ,ｓｅｍｉ－ａｒｉｄａｎｄｄｒｙｓｕｂ－ｈｕｍｉｄａｒｅａｓ）分布变化的图表,同时利用我国北方１６０个气象台站近４０年连续记录的气象资料,进行滑动平均,计算和绘制了干旱、半干旱区的最近４０年来气温变暖及干湿变化的趋势图,分析了在全球变化下如果工业发展和其结构不变的情况下,未来３０－５０年我国土地荒漠化的发展趋势,为我国荒漠化监测预报和防治提供依据和对策。     

全球环境变化

文章着重介绍了全球环境变化对生态系统的影响,对此进行了理论分析,并从全球气候变化即温室效应的角度,以CO2为例说明了全球环境变化的影响.     

我国地表水溶解氧时空变化及其对全球变暖的响应

溶解氧是衡量地表水环境质量的重要指标.为科学实施水污染防治和水生态系统修复,系统解析了我国近十五年不同区域溶解氧的时空变化特征,探讨了全球变暖对不同区域饱和溶解氧的影响.结果表明:①受海拔和温度影响,全国饱和溶解氧浓度存在显著的区域差异性,根据饱和溶解氧浓度将全国划分为3个区域,分别为北部高饱和溶解氧区、南部低饱和溶解...     

全球气候变化背景下吉林省生长季水热变化及其种植策略研究

论文旨在揭示全球气候变化背景下,吉林省平原地区和林区的低、 中、 高海拔地区生长季水热变化规律,并据此提出各地区作物种植调整途径。研究结果表明:平原地区生长季积温增加和生长季长度延长及初日提前、 终日延后的变化最大,种植策略的调整空间最大;林区中、 高海拔地区的生长季长度和积温变化大于低海拔地区,三个海拔地区生长季长度的变化主要是生长季终日延后贡献的。以玉米种植为例,平原地区可提前播种时间,延后收获时间,改种晚熟品种代替中晚熟品种;为躲避严重的春旱,其西部地区可延后播种时间,仍然种植中晚熟品种。林区低海拔地区玉米种植以中晚熟品种代替中熟品种,林区中海拔地区用中早熟、 中熟品种代替早熟、 中早熟品种,林区高海拔地区可用中早熟品种代替极早、 早熟品种,三个地区主要通过延后收获时间,达到作物成熟所需热量。     

全球变化的人类因素 下

4.人对自然作用的机制从人与自然关系的角度,文化是人类的生存方式,人类用文化方式适应自然、改变自然,用文化改善自己在自然界的状态.也就是说,文化是人类作用于自然的主要机制.人的作用成为自然界发展的新的机制.这里人的力量不是由人的生物量(或体力)决定的,而是由人的意识和智慧决定的.人的意识和智慧之所以成为重要力量,就在于他能够调动自然界的其它力量,发挥自然界的力量为人的目的服务.社会文化的发展主要     

城市化和全球环境变化与IHDP

国际全球环境变化人文因素计划（IHDP）关注城市化与全球变化相互关系及相互作用机制的研究。《科学计划——城市化与全球环境变化》（UGEC）是IHDP的核心研究计划之一,该核心计划研究包括城市系统对全球环境变化的影响、全球环境变化影响城市系统的路径和作用点、城市系统与全球环境变化的相互作用和结果、城市生态系统中对全球环境变化影响的结果与反馈过程等四大专题的研究。IHDP、UGEC对我国城市化进程、环境效应与可持续发展研究具有一定的借鉴意义,值得持续关注。     

Life on the Edge: Vulnerability and Adaptation of African Ecosystems to Global Climate Change

Donor countriesare providing financial and technicalsupport for global climate change countrystudies to help African nations meet theirreporting needs under the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC). Technical assistance to completevulnerability and adaptation assessmentsincludes training of analysts, sharing ofcontemporary tools (e.g. simulationmodels), data and assessment techniques,information-sharing workshops and aninternational exchange programme foranalysts. This chapter summarizes 14African country studies (Botswana, Côted'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, the Gambia,Kenya, Malawi, Mauritius, Nigeria, SouthAfrica, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia andZimbabwe) assessing vulnerabilities toglobal climate change and identifyingadaptation options. The analysis revealedthat the participating African countriesare vulnerable to global climate change inmore than one of the followingsocio-economic sectors: coastal resources,agriculture, grasslands and livestock,water resources, forests, wildlife, andhuman health. This vulnerability isexacerbated by widespread poverty,recurrent droughts, inequitable landdistribution, environmental degradation,natural resource mismanagement anddependence on rain-fed agriculture. Arange of practical adaptation options wereidentified in key socio-economic sectors ofthe African nations analysed. However,underdeveloped human and institutionalcapacity, as well as the absence ofadequate infrastructure, renders manytraditional coping strategies (rooted inpolitical and economic stability)ineffective or insufficient. FutureAfrican country studies should be moreclosely coordinated with development ofnational climate change action plans     

气候变化对鲁西北平原冬小麦产量的影响及对策

气候变化会导致气候资源发生改变,从而引发粮食安全问题.耦合区域气候模式和作物生长模型,可定量分析气候变化导致的作物产量变动,探讨适宜的田间管理应对措施.研究以冬小麦作为研究对象,以我国粮食主产区之一的鲁西北平原作为研究区域,耦合MIROC-RegCM3区域气候模式和CERES-Wheat作物生长模型,开展A1B温室气体排放情景下,气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响及适应措施研究.结果表明,A1B气候情景下,该区域冬小麦潜在产量会有所下降;在现有管理措施的基础上,可通过培育对春化作用依赖较小的品种、 适当提早播期、 增加越冬水灌溉量等方式保证产量,减少年际间变异.该文研究结果可为应对未来气候变暖、 确保粮食安全提供参考.     

Some Lessons Learned from Public Health on the Process of Adaptation

Lessons learned from more than 150 years of public health research and intervention can provide insights to guide public health professionals and institutions as they design and implement specific strategies, policies, and measures to increase resilience to climate variability and change. This paper identifies both some modifications to public health systems that may enhance adaptive capacity, and lessons drawn from the history of managing environmental and other threats in the public health sector that may have relevance for other sectors as they design approaches to increase their adaptive capacity to more effectively cope with climate variability and change. The views expressed are the author’s own and do not represent official US EPA policy.     

四川省气候变化适应行动现状、问题和建议研究

作为遭受气候变化不利影响较为严重的省份之一,四川省面临着可持续发展能力提升和应对新增气候变化风险的挑战.文章在简要介绍气候变化对四川省的影响、系统梳理其在适应气候变化中取得成效的基础上,进一步剖析了存在的问题,最后结合四川省省情和气候变化适应行动现状,提出了从健全法律法规到完善适应气候变化的体制机制,从加强适应基础建设到强化适应能力建设等方面的建议.     

Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: a typology

Adaptation in agriculture to climate change is important for impact andvulnerability assessment and for the development of climate change policy. A wide variety of adaptation options has been proposed as having thepotential to reduce vulnerability of agricultural systems to risks related toclimate change, often in an ad hoc fashion. This paper develops atypology of adaptation to systematically classify and characterize agriculturaladaptation options to climate change, drawing primarily on the Canadiansituation. In particular, it differentiates adaptation options in agricultureaccording to the involvement of different agents (producers, industries,governments); the intent, timing and duration of employment of theadaptation; the form and type of the adaptive measure; and the relationshipto processes already in place to cope with risks associated with climatestresses. A synthesis of research on adaptation options in Canadianagriculture identifies four main categories: (i) technological developments,(ii) government programs and insurance, (iii) farm production practices,and (iv) farm financial management. In addition to these `directadaptations', there are options, particularly information provision, that maystimulate adaptation initiatives. The results reveal that most adaptationoptions are modifications to on-going farm practices and public policydecision-making processes with respect to a suite of changing climatic(including variability and extremes) and non-climatic conditions (political,economic and social). For progress on implementing adaptations to climatechange in agriculture there is a need to better understand the relationshipbetween potential adaptation options and existing farm-level andgovernment decision-making processes and risk management frameworks.     

Modelling Crop-Climate Interactions in Spain: Vulnerability and Adaptation of Different Agricultural Systems to Climate Change

This study evaluates the theoretical impact of climate change on yields and water use of two crops with different responses to increased CO₂ and which represent contrasting agricultural systems in Spain. In all cases the simulated effects of a CO₂-induced climate change depended on the counteracting effects between higher daily ET rates, shortening of crop growth duration and changes in precipitation patterns as well as the simulated effects of CO₂ on the water use efficiency of the crops. For summer irrigated crops such as maize, the yield reductions and the exacerbated problems of irrigation water availability simulated with climate change may force the crop out of production in some regions. For winter dryland crops such as wheat, productivity increased significantly in some regions, suggesting a northward shift of area suitable for wheat production in future climates. The study considered strategies for improving the efficiency of water use based on the optimization of crop management decisions in a CO₂-driven warmer climate. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

全球气候变化的研究与进展

论述了全球气候变化的研究目标、方法、主要科学问题及近10年来国内外的研究进展和存在的主要问题。指出中国是全球的一个组成部分,又是人类活动最为强烈的地区之一,在全球气候变化、特别是人类活动诱发的气候变化的研究中占有十分重要的地位。建议大力加强全球气候变化的研究,增加研究经费的投入,积极参与国际科学合作,把当前较为分散的研究有效地组织到一些有前景的、能出高水平成果的课题上去,为全球气候变化研究做更大的贡献。     

Adaptation of Russian agriculture to climatic variability: The role of federal and provincial policies

This paper draws on the example of Tyumen Province, a federal subject of the Russian Federation, to explore the role that policies play in hindering agricultural producers’ adaptation to climate change. Its objective is to contribute to a better understanding of maladaptation at the policy level. The discourse analysis method is used to explain perceptions of climate variability in Tyumen Province and its impact on agriculture. The document analysis method is used to assess agricultural policy in Tyumen Province and its implications for producers’ adaptation to climate change. The results suggest that although agricultural producers and policymakers are acutely aware both of climate variability and the resulting loss of agricultural output, provincial agricultural policy generally fails to encourage better adaptation by agricultural producers or to support their greater economic security. Instead, it primarily focuses on meeting food production targets and thus limits the producers’ own independent moves towards adaptation. The phenomenon of maladaptation at the policy level is discussed in consideration of the general public’s and the authorities’ awareness of climate change and climate variability, and the role of science in shaping this awareness.