Planning for Climate Change: Identifying Minimum-Dispersal Corridors for the Cape Proteaceae

Abstract:  Climate change poses a challenge to the conventional approach to biodiversity conservation, which relies on fixed protected areas, because the changing climate is expected to shift the distribution of suitable areas for many species. Some species will persist only if they can colonize new areas, although in some cases their dispersal abilities may be very limited. To address this problem we devised a quantitative method for identifying multiple corridors of connectivity through shifting habitat suitabilities that seeks to minimize dispersal demands first and then the area of land required. We applied the method to Proteaceae mapped on a 1-minute grid for the western part of the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, to supplement the existing protected areas, using Worldmap software. Our goal was to represent each species in at least 35 grid cells (approximately 100 km²) at all times between 2000 and 2050 despite climate change. Although it was possible to achieve the goal at reasonable cost, caution will be needed in applying our method to reserves or other conservation investments until there is further information to support or refine the climate-change models and the species' habitat-suitability and dispersal models.     

Modelling the effect of in-stream and overland dispersal on gene flow in river networks

Modelling gene flow across natural landscapes is a current challenge of population genetics. Models are essential to make clear predictions about conditions that cause genetic differentiation or maintain connectivity between populations. River networks are a special case of landscape matrix. They represent stretches of habitat connected according to a branching pattern where dispersal is usually limited to upstream or downstream movements. Because of their peculiar topology, and the increasing concern about conservation issues in hydrosystems, there has been a recent revival of interest in modelling dispersal in river networks. Network complexity has been shown to influence global population differentiation. However, geometric characteristics are likely to interact with the way individuals move across space. Studies have focused on in-stream movements. None of the work published so far took into consideration the ability of many species to disperse overland between branches of the same network though. We predicted that the relative contribution of these two dispersal modalities (in-stream and overland) would affect the overall genetic structure. We simulated dispersal in synthetic river networks using an individual-based model. We tested the effect of dispersal modalities, i.e. the ratio of overland/in-stream dispersal, and two geometric parameters, bifurcation angle between branches and network complexity. Data revealed that if geometrical parameters affected population differentiation, dispersal parameters had the strongest effect. Interestingly, we observed a quadratic relationship between p the proportion of overland dispersers and population differentiation. We interpret this U-shape pattern as a balance between isolation by distance caused by in-stream movements at low values of p and intense migrant exchanges within the same branching unit at high values of p. Our study is the first attempt to model out-of-network movements. It clearly shows that both geometric and dispersal parameters interact. Both should be taken into consideration in order to refine predictions about dispersal and gene flow in river network.     

Chernobyl as a population sink for barn swallows: tracking dispersal using stable-isotope profiles.

Stable-isotope profiles of feathers can reveal the location or habitat used by individual birds during the molting period. Heterogeneity in isotope profiles will reflect heterogeneity in molt locations, but also heterogeneity in breeding locations, because spatial heterogeneity in molt locations will be congruent with spatial heterogeneity in breeding locations in species with high connectivity between breeding and molting sites. We used information on the congruence of spatial heterogeneity in molt and breeding location to study population processes in Barn Swallows (Hirundo rustica) from a region. near Chernobyl, Ukraine, that has been radioactively contaminated since 1986; from an uncontaminated control region near Kanev, Ukraine; and from a sample of pre-1986 museum specimens used to investigate patterns prior to the nuclear disaster at Chernobyl, from both regions. Previous studies have revealed severe reductions in Barn Swallow reproductive performance and adult survival in the Chernobyl region, implying that the population is a sink and unable to sustain itself. Female Barn Swallows are known to disperse farther from their natal site than males, implying that female stable-isotope profiles should tend to be more variable than profiles of males. However, if the Barn Swallows breeding at Chernobyl are not self-sustaining, we would expect males there also to originate from a larger area than males from the control region. We found evidence that the sample of adult Barn Swallows from the Chernobyl region was more isotopically heterogeneous than the control sample, as evidenced from a significant correlation between feather sigma13C and sigma15N values in the control region, but not in the Chernobyl region. Furthermore, we found a significant difference in feather sigma15N values between regions and periods (before and after 1986). When we compared the variances in sigma13C values of feathers, we found that variances in both sexes from post-1986 samples from Chernobyl were significantly larger than variances for feather samples from the control region, and than variances for historical samples from both regions. These findings suggest that stable-isotope measurements can provide information about population processes following environmental perturbations.     

Costs of expanding the network of protected areas as a response to climate change in the Cape Floristic Region

The expansion of protected areas is a critical component of strategies to promote the continued existence of biodiversity (i.e., life at all levels of biological organization) as climate changes, but scientific, social, and economic uncertainties associated with climate change are some of the major obstacles preventing such expansion. New models of climate change and species distribution and new methods of conservation planning now make it possible to explore the uncertainties associated with climate changes and species responses. Yet few reliable estimates of the costs of expanding protected areas and methods for determining these costs exist, largely because of the many (and uncertain) determinants of these costs. We developed a cost-accounting model to estimate the range in costs of various options for expanding protected areas and to explore the variables that drive these costs. Model development was informed by an existing plan to expand protected areas in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa to address species conservation under a scenario of climate change. The 50-year present value of total costs varied from US$260 million ($1077/ha) for an off-reserve option that involves agreements with landowners and no compensation of forgone production and associated revenue to $1020 million ($4228/ha) for an on-reserve option that involves land acquisition and protection. The costs of acquiring land or compensating landowners for forgone production and development opportunities were the major drivers of the total costs across all options because most of the area identified in the protected-area expansion plan consisted of urban and high-quality agricultural lands. Total costs were also affected by changes in protected area extent and discount rate. Model-generated outputs such as these may be useful for informing implementation strategies and the allocation of future efforts in monitoring, data collection, and model development.     

基于概率神经网络的污泥堆肥腐熟度的综合判别

由于污泥堆肥过程中各组分间相互影响和制约,污泥腐熟程度的判别系统呈现模糊性,使得传统评价方法对该判别系统很难正确认识。文章根据污泥堆肥的具体情况,提出了以含水率、挥发固体、粪大肠菌值、发芽指数作为腐熟程度的判别指标体系,并基于概率神经网络建立污泥堆肥腐熟程度的综合判别模型,然后用该模型判别上海市某污水厂污泥快速好氧堆肥工艺污泥堆肥样品的腐熟程度。结果表明:①将污泥堆肥的含水率、有机质、粪大肠菌值和种子发芽指数作为判别指标,可以判别污泥堆肥腐熟程度;②概率神经网络可以建立判别指标与稳定化程度等级之间复杂的非线性关系,为腐熟度的判别提供一种通用的模式,且判别结果比较合理。     

Incorporating behaviour into simple models of dispersal using the biological control agent Dicyphus hesperus

We explored the utility of incorporating easily measured, biologically realistic movement rules into simple models of dispersal. We depart from traditional random walk models by designing an individual-based simulation model where we decompose animal movement into three separate processes: emigration, between-patch movement, and immigration behaviour. These processes were quantified using experiments on the omnivorous insect Dicyphus hesperus moving through a tomato greenhouse. We compare the predictions of the individual-based model, along with a series of biased random walk models, against an independent experimental release of D. hesperus. We find that in this system, the short-term dispersal of these insects is described well by our individual-based model, but can also be described by a 2D grid-based biased random walk model when mortality is accounted for.     

Modelling hydraulic jump using the bubbly two-phase flow method

Hydraulic jumps have complex flow structures, characterised by strong turbulence and large air contents. It is difficult to numerically predict the flows. It is necessary to bolster the existing computer models to emphasise the gas phase in hydraulic jumps, and avoid the pitfall of treating the phenomenon as a single-phase water flow. This paper aims to improve predictions of hydraulic jumps as bubbly two-phase flow. We allow for airflow above the free surface and air mass entrained across it. We use the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations to describe fluid motion, the volume of fluid method to track the interface, and the k–ε model for turbulence closure. A shear layer is shown to form between the bottom jet flow and the upper recirculation flow. The key to success in predicting the jet flow lies in formulating appropriate bottom boundary conditions. The majority of entrained air bubbles are advected downstream through the shear layer. Predictions of the recirculation region’s length and air volume fraction within the layer are validated by available measurements. The predictions show a linear growth of the shear layer. There is strong turbulence at the impingement, and the bulk of the turbulence kinetic energy is advected to the recirculation region via the shear layer. The predicted bottom-shear-stress distribution, with a peak value upstream of the toe of the jump and a decaying trend downstream, is realistic. This paper reveals a significant transient bottom shear stress associated with temporal fluctuations of mainly flow velocity in the jump. The prediction method discussed is useful for modelling hydraulic jumps and advancing the understanding of the complex flow phenomenon.     

Gene flow via the dispersal of fertilizing sperm in a colonial ascidian (Botryllus schlosseri): the effect of male density

In marine invertebrate taxa with restricted larval dispersal, the movement of fertilizing sperm may contribute significantly to gene flow. Several recent studies have examined the ability of isolated males to fertilize eggs as a function of distance, but none has explicitly considered the effect of other males in the vicinity on the spatial distribution of fertilizations obtained by a male. I assayed the effect of additional males on the fertilization success of male Botryllus schlosseri (Pallas) colonies with respect to distance via an in situ mating experiment performed in Maine, USA during the summer of 1993. Allozyme markers were used to assay paternity. The presence of additional males reduced the ability of a focal male to fertilize eggs in all distance classes. This suggests that competition for fertilizations among males will reduce gene flow via sperm dispersal and that the fertilization success of isolated males may over-estimate gene flow via sperm dispersal in many natural populations.     

Drifting plastic and its consequences for sessile organism dispersal in the Atlantic Ocean

Organisms have travelled the Atlantic Ocean as neuston and have rafted on natural marine debris for millions of years. Shipping increased opportunities for marine organism travel mere thousands of years ago but in just decades floating plastic debris is transforming marine rafting. Here we present a combined open-ocean and remote coasts marine debris survey of the Atlantic (from 68°S–78°N). Daily shipboard observations were made from the Southern Ocean to the high Arctic and the shores of 16 remote islands were surveyed. We report (1) anthropogenic debris from the most northerly and southerly latitudes to date, (2) the first record of marine biota colonising debris at latitudes >68°, and (3) the finding of exotic species (the barnacle Elminius modestus) on northern plastic debris. Plastic pieces dominated both open-ocean and stranding marine debris. The highest densities of oceanic debris were found around northwest Europe, whereas the highest stranding levels were equatorial. Our findings of high east-Arctic debris colonisation by fauna contrast with low values from west Arctic (though only two samples) and south Atlantic shores. Colonisation rates of debris differed between hemispheres, previously considered to be similar. Our two South Atlantic mega-debris shipboard surveys (10 years apart) found no changes in open-ocean debris densities but resurvey of a UK and an Arctic island both found increases. We put our findings in the context of the Atlantic literature to interpret spatial and temporal trends in marine debris accumulation and its organismal consequences.Communicated by J.P. Thorpe, Port Erin     

Changes in seed dispersal processes and the potential for between-patch connectivity for an arid land daisy

Dispersal is a major and critical process in population biology that has been particularly challenging to study. Animals can have major roles in seed dispersal even in species that do not appear specifically adapted to animal-aided dispersal. This can occur by two processes: direct movement of diaspores by animals and modification of landscape characteristics by animals in ways that greatly influence dispersal. We exploited the production of large, persistent dispersal structures (seed heads, henceforth) by Erodiophyllum elderi (Asteraceae), a daisy from arid Australia, to further understand secondary dispersal. Seed head dispersal on and off animal tracks in eight E. elderi patches was monitored for 9.5 months by periodically recording the location of marked seed heads. Sites were located inside a reserve that excludes sheep but not kangaroos, and in a nearby area with both kangaroos and sheep. The distance moved and likelihood of seed head movement was higher in areas with sheep, and especially along animal tracks. There was clear evidence that seed heads were channeled down animal tracks during large rainfall events. Seed head dispersal away from patches occurred to a limited extent via their physical contact with sheep and potentially via wind dispersal. Thus, the advantages of this study system allowed us to demonstrate the two postulated effects of herbivores on dispersal via direct movement of seed heads, and two distinct indirect effects through landscape modification by herbivores from the creation of animal tracks and the denudation of vegetation.     

Implications of dispersal and life history strategies for the persistence of Linyphiid spider populations

Linyphiid spiders have evolved the ability to disperse long distances by a process known as ballooning. It has been hypothesized that ballooning may allow populations to persist in the highly disturbed agricultural areas that the spiders prefer. In this study, I develop a stochastic population model to explore how the propensity for this type of long distance dispersal influences long term population persistence in a heterogeneous landscape where catastrophic mortality events are common. Analysis of this model indicates that although some dispersal does indeed decrease the probability of extinction of the population, the frequency of dispersal is only important in certain extremes. Instead, both the mean population birth and death rates, and the landscape composition, are much more important in determining the probability of extinction than the dispersal process. Thus, in order to develop effective conservation strategies for these spiders, better understanding of life history processes should be prioritized over an understanding of dispersal strategies.     

响应面法优化O_3/H_2O_2/UV工艺降解1,2,4-三氯苯

研究了O3/H2O2/UV臭氧光催化工艺对水中TCB的降解效果,考察了TCB初始浓度、O3转化率、H2O2投加量及pH值对TCB降解效果的影响及其动力学分析,并通过响应面分析法对实验条件进行了优化组合.结果表明,O3/H2O2/UV对TCB的降解均遵循准一级反应动力学,其中条件优化组合后的反应动力学方程为y=0.0219x-0.0127,准一级反应速率常数为0.0219 min-1,所得线性相关系数为0.983.响应面分析结果表明,在TCB初始浓度0.3 mg.L-1、pH=10.1、H2O2投加量0.33 mmol.L-1、O3转化率99.75%的最优工艺组合条件下,TCB的3次平均去除率为94.2%,与预测值95.0%吻合度较高.     

Modelling the dynamics of coral reef macroalgae using a Bayesian belief network approach

Macroalgae are a major benthic component of coral reefs and their dynamics influence the resilience of coral reefs to disturbance. However, the relative importance of physical and ecological processes in driving macroalgal dynamics is poorly understood. Here we develop a Bayesian belief network (BBN) model to integrate many of these processes and predict the growth of coral reef macroalgae. Bayesian belief networks use probabilistic relationships rather than deterministic rules to quantify the cause and effect assumptions. The model was developed using both new empirical data and quantified relationships elicited from previous studies. We demonstrate the efficacy of the BBN to predict the dynamics of a common Caribbean macroalgal genus Dictyota. Predictions of the model have an average accuracy of 55% (implying that 55% of the predicted categories of Dictyota cover were assigned to the correct class). Sensitivity analysis suggested that macroalgal dynamics were primarily driven by top–down processes of grazing rather than bottom–up nutrification. BBNs provide a useful framework for modelling complex systems, identifying gaps in our scientific understanding and communicating the complexities of the associated uncertainties in an explicit manner to stakeholders. We anticipate that accuracies will improve as new data are added to the model.     

An indexed dispersion criterion for testing the sex-biased dispersal of lek mating behavior of capercaillies

Traditionally it has been assumed by ecologists that the dispersion of positions with respect to leks of female capercaillies during the mating season is superior to the dispersion of positions of male capercaillies. However some recently published articles suggest the idea that dispersion is not sex-biased, but both sexes show a similar dispersion. This article introduces a mathematical model to approach the study of the above question by means of an indexed dispersion criterion. This model is developed in detail thus deriving its main mathematical properties. On this basis, the model is applied to the analysis of the motivating problem with real data of positions of leks and female and male capercaillies. The results derived by means of the model put into doubt the traditional assumption of a superior dispersion of females supporting the new theories, that is, both sexes show a similar dispersion.     

Application of least-cost path model to identify a giant panda dispersal corridor network after the Wenchuan earthquake—Case study of Wolong Nature Reserve in China

With growing levels of human-activity and frequent natural disturbances throughout the world, it is increasingly important that both research and management efforts take into account the widespread landscape fragmentation and its consequences for biodiversity conservation. The magnitude 5.12 Wenchuan earthquake in China caused dramatic impacts on giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) habitat in the nature reserves within Minshan and Qionglai mountains. With the combined stresses of the natural disaster and the extensive human activities during postquake reconstruction, giant panda habitat in this region may become more fragmented in the future. In order to preserve the giant panda population after the earthquake and protect the species against habitat fragmentation, this article explores a method of identifying giant panda migration corridors involving habitat suitability assessments and a least-cost path model. Focusing on postquake Wolong Nature Reserve, our results demonstrate that it contains 430.3 km² of suitable habitat (21.1% of total area), 463.8 km² of marginally suitable habitat (22.8%) and 1141.9 km² of unsuitable habitat (50.1%). We further show that several giant panda dispersal corridors exist in the reserve, including four corridor groups that cross the provincial highway and five corridors that do not intersect areas of human activity. This study will contribute to management and conservation efforts in Wolong Nature Reserve and beyond after the Wenchuan earthquake.     

A short note on the simulation of turbulent stratified flow and mobile bed interaction using the continuum coupled flow and morphodynamics model

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - This paper aims at addressing issues related to the misrepresentation of the turbulent stratified flow for sand wave simulation using the continuum coupled flow and...     

Fish dispersal in fragmented landscapes: a modeling framework for quantifying the permeability of structural barriers

Dispersal is a key determinant of the spatial distribution and abundance of populations, but human-made fragmentation can create barriers that hinder dispersal and reduce population viability. This study presents a modeling framework based on dispersal kernels (modified Laplace distributions) that describe stream fish dispersal in the presence of obstacles to passage. We used mark-recapture trials to quantify summer dispersal of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in four streams crossed by a highway. The analysis identified population heterogeneity in dispersal behavior, as revealed by the presence of a dominant sedentary component (48-72% of all individuals) characterized by short mean dispersal distance (<10 m), and a secondary mobile component characterized by longer mean dispersal distance (56-1086 m). We did not detect evidence of barrier effects on dispersal through highway crossings. Simulation of various plausible scenarios indicated that detectability of barrier effects was strongly dependent on features of sampling design, such as spatial configuration of the sampling area, barrier extent, and sample size. The proposed modeling framework extends conventional dispersal kernels by incorporating structural barriers. A major strength of the approach is that ecological process (dispersal model) and sampling design (observation model) are incorporated simultaneously into the analysis. This feature can facilitate the use of prior knowledge to improve sampling efficiency of mark-recapture trials in movement studies. Model-based estimation of barrier permeability and its associated uncertainty provides a rigorous approach for quantifying the effect of barriers on stream fish dispersal and assessing population dynamics of stream fish in fragmented landscapes.     

Going with the flow: using species-discharge relationships to forecast losses in fish biodiversity

In response to the scarcity of tools to make quantitative forecasts of the loss of aquatic species from anthropogenic effects, we present a statistical model that relates fish species richness to river discharge. Fish richness increases logarithmically with discharge, an index of habitat space, similar to a species-area curve in terrestrial systems. We apply the species-discharge model as a forecasting tool to build scenarios of changes in riverine fish richness from climate change, water consumption, and other anthropogenic drivers that reduce river discharge. Using hypothetical reductions in discharges (of magnitudes that have been observed in other rivers), we predict that reductions of 20-90% in discharge would result in losses of 2-38% of the fish species in two biogeographical regions in the United States (Lower Ohio-Upper Mississippi and Southeastern). Additional data on the occurrence of specific species relative to specific discharge regimes suggests that fishes found exclusively in high discharge environments (e.g., Shovelnose sturgeon) would be most vulnerable to reductions in discharge. Lag times in species extinctions after discharge reduction provide a window of opportunity for conservation efforts. Applications of the species-discharge model can help prioritize such management efforts among species and rivers.     

Design of a water quality monitoring network in a large river system using the genetic algorithm

Despite several decades of operations and the increasing importance of water quality monitoring networks, the authorities still rely on experiential insights and subjective judgments in siting water quality monitoring stations. This study proposes an integrated technique which uses a genetic algorithm (GA) and a geographic information system (GIS) for the design of an effective water quality monitoring network in a large river system. In order to develop a design scheme, planning objectives were identified for water quality monitoring networks and corresponding fitness functions were defined using linear combinations of five selection criteria that are critical for developing a monitoring system. The criteria include the representativeness of a river system, compliance with water quality standards, supervision of water use, surveillance of pollution sources and examination of water quality changes. The fitness levels were obtained through a series of calculations of the fitness functions using GIS data. A sensitivity analysis was performed for major parameters such as the numbers of generations, population sizes and probability of crossover and mutation, in order to determine a good fitness level and convergence for optimum solutions. The proposed methodology was applied to the design of water quality monitoring networks in the Nakdong River system, in Korea. The results showed that only 35 out of 110 stations currently in operation coincide with those in the new network design, therefore indicating that the effectiveness of the current monitoring network should be carefully re-examined. From this study, it was concluded that the proposed methodology could be a useful decision support tool for the optimized design of water quality monitoring networks.