Crash data analysis: collective vs. individual crash level approach

INTRODUCTION: Traffic safety literature has traditionally focused on identification of location profiles where "more crashes are likely to occur" over a period of time. The analysis involves estimation of crash frequency and/or rate (i.e., frequency normalized based on some measure of exposure) with geometric design features (e.g., number of lanes) and traffic characteristics (e.g., Average Annual Daily Traffic [AADT]) of the roadway location. In the recent past, a new category of traffic safety studies has emerged, which attempts to identify locations where a "crash is more likely to occur." The distinction between the two groups of studies is that the latter group of locations would change based on the varying traffic patterns over the course of the day or even within the hour. METHOD: Hence, instead of estimation of crash frequency over a period of time, the objective becomes real-time estimation of crash likelihood. The estimation of real-time crash likelihood has a traffic management component as well. It is a proactive extension to the traditional approach of incident detection, which involves analysis of traffic data recorded immediately after the incident. The units of analysis used in these studies are individual crashes rather than counts of crashes. RESULTS: In this paper, crash data analysis based on the two approaches, collective and at individual crash level, is discussed along with the advantages and shortcomings of the two approaches.     

Using a novel data linkage approach to investigate potential reductions in motor vehicle crash severity – An evaluation of strategic highway safety plan emphasis areas

Introduction: With the significant number of motor-vehicle fatalities occurring on the nation’s roadways in recent years, there exists a need to integrate a more complete range of data sources, available at a regional or statewide level, to effectively evaluate existing safety concerns and quantify their impacts. Crash data alone does not provide ample crash-associated citation, injury, and roadway characteristics; therefore, a more cohesive dataset is required to accurately and completely analyze the true impacts of motor-vehicle crashes. Previously developed strategies linked crash data with citation and roadway inventory data to enhance the identification and optimization of highway safety strategies. Method: The main objective of this research focused on developing a new deterministic linkage between crash and Emergency Medical Services (EMS) data, by utilizing the Massachusetts Crash Data System (CDS) and the Massachusetts Ambulance Trip Record Information System (MATRIS). Results: After several iterations of match criterion, the validated linkage successfully matched 58.3% of MATRIS records (containing an Injury Cause of Motor Vehicle Crash) to a CDS person record (55011 linked pairs, between 2014 and 2016). The data linkage provided significant insight into injury trends in several highway safety emphasis areas such as roadway departure, speeding-related, and distraction-affected crashes. The findings from this research are twofold: (1) an established process for linking previously separate data sets, and (2) a mechanism for analysis that provides decision-makers and safety professionals with a better measure of crash outcomes.     

Investigating the effect of geometric dimensions of median traffic barriers on crashes: Crash analysis of interstate roads in Wyoming using actual crash datasets

IntroductionDespite the numerous safety studies done on traffic barriers’ performance assessment, the effect of variables such as traffic barrier’s height has not been identified considering a comprehensive actual crash data analysis. This study seeks to identify the impact of geometric variables (i.e., height, post-spacing, sideslope ratio, and lateral offset) on median traffic barriers’ performance in crashes on interstate roads.MethodGeometric dimensions of over 110 miles median traffic barriers on interstate Wyoming roads were inventoried in a field survey between 2016 and 2018. Then, the traffic barrier data collected was combined with historical crash records, traffic volume data, road geometric characteristics, and weather condition data to provide a comprehensive dataset for the analysis. Finally, an ordered logit model with random-parameters was developed for the severity of traffic barrier crashes. Based on the results, traffic barrier’s height was found to impact crash severity.ResultsCrashes involving cable barriers with a height between 30″ and 42″ were less severe than other traffic barrier types, while concrete barriers with a height shorter than 32″ were more likely involved with severe injury crashes. As another important finding, the post-spacing of 6.1–6.3 ft. was identified as the least severe range in W-beam barriers.Practical applicationsThe results show that using flare barriers should reduce the number of crashes compared to parallel barriers.     

The impact of a standard enforcement safety belt law on fatalities and hospital charges in Ohio

Introduction

The purpose of this study was to analyze linked crash and hospital data to determine the effect that enactment of a standard enforcement safety belt law in Ohio would have on hospital charges and direct medical costs due to motor-vehicle crashes, focusing on the impact to the state's Medicaid system.

Method

The linkage and analysis was conducted as part of the Ohio Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System (CODES) program. Current safety belt usage in Ohio stands at 82% with its secondary enforcement safety belt law.

Results

Assuming an increase in usage to 92% through standard enforcement, over $15.3 million in medical costs to Medicaid for injuries that occur in a single year could be prevented over a 10-year period. Cumulative savings could reach more than $91.2 million during the 10-year period. In addition, 161 fatalities could have been prevented in one year had all unbelted occupants who sustained a fatal injury instead chosen to wear their safety belt.

Summary and Impact on Industry

Clearly, substantial progress can be made in reducing the number of deaths and injuries, as well as medical costs associated with motor-vehicle crashes, by strengthening safety belt laws and increasing safety belt usage in Ohio.     

Land-traffic crash leading to passenger vehicle submersion,drowning and other fatal injuries: A 44-year study based on records from the Finnish Crash Data Institute

Background: Land motor traffic crash (LMTC) -related drownings are an overlooked and preventable cause of injury death. The aim of this study was to analyze the profile of water-related LMTCs involving passenger cars and leading to drowning and fatal injuries in Finland, 1972 through 2015. Materials and methods: The database of the Finnish Crash Data Institute (FCDI) that gathers detailed information on fatal traffic accidents provided records on all LMTCs leading to drowning during the study period and, from 2002 to 2015, on all water-related LMTCs, regardless of the cause of death. For each crash, we considered variables on circumstances, vehicle, and fatality profiles. Results: During the study period, the FCDI investigated 225 water-related LMTCs resulting in 285 fatalities. The majority of crashes involved passenger cars (124), and the cause of death was mostly drowning (167). Only 61 (36.5%) fatalities suffered some–generally mild–injuries. The crashes frequently occurred during fall or summer (63.7%), in a river or ditch (60.5%), and resulted in complete vehicle’s submersion (53.7 %). Half of the crashes occurred in adverse weather conditions and in over 40% of the cases, the driver had exceeded the speed limit. Among drivers, 77 (68.8%) tested positive for alcohol (mean BAC 1.8%). Conclusion: Multidisciplinary investigations of LMTCs have a much higher potential than do exclusive police and medico-legal investigations. The risk factors of water-related LMTCs are similar to those of other traffic crashes. However, generally the fatal event in water-related LMTC is not the crash itself, but drowning. The paucity of severe physical injuries suggests that victims’ functional capacity is usually preserved during vehicle submersion. Practical Applications: In water-related LMTCs, expansion of safety measures is warranted from general traffic-injury prevention to prevention of drowning, including development of safety features for submerged vehicles and simple self-rescue protocols to escape from a sinking vehicle.     

Pedestrian fatality and impact speed squared: Cloglog modeling from French national data

Objective: The present study estimates pedestrians' risk of death according to impact speed when hit by a passenger car in a frontal collision.

Methods: Data were coded for all fatal crashes in France in 2011 and for a random sample of 1/20th of all road injuries for the same year and weighted to take into account police underreporting of mild injury. A cloglog model was used to optimize risk adjustment for high collision speeds. The fit of the model on the data was also improved by using the square of the impact speed, which best matches the energy dissipated in the collision.

Results: Modeling clearly demonstrated that the risk of death was very close to 1 when impact speeds exceeded 80 km/h. For speeds less than 40 km/h, because data representative of all crashes resulting in injury were used, the estimated risk of death was fairly low. However, although the curve seemed deceptively flat below 50 km/h, the risk of death in fact rose 2-fold between 30 and 40 km/h and 6-fold between 30 and 50 km/h. For any given speed, the risk of death was much higher for more elderly subjects, especially those over 75 years of age. These results concern frontal crashes involving a passenger car. Collisions involving trucks are far less frequent, but half result in the pedestrian being run over, incurring greater mortality.

Conclusions: For impact speeds below 60 km/h, the shape of the curve relating probability of death to impact speed was very similar to those reported in recent rigorous studies. For higher impact speeds, the present model allows the curve to rise ever more steeply, giving a much better fit to observed data. The present results confirm that, when a pedestrian is struck by a car, impact speed is a major risk factor, thus providing a supplementary argument for strict speed limits in areas where pedestrians are highly exposed.     

Performance evaluation of integrated resilience engineering factors by data envelopment analysis: The case of a petrochemical plant

Petrochemical units are potentially prone to incidents that have catastrophic consequences such as explosion, leakage of toxic materials, and the stoppage of the production process. Resilience engineering (RE) is a new method that can control incidents and limit their consequences. It includes top-level commitment, reporting culture, learning, awareness, preparedness, and flexibility. However, this study introduces a new concept of RE (referred to as integrated RE or IRE) which includes the above factors in addition to self-organization, teamwork, redundancy and fault-tolerant. This study evaluates performance of IRE in a petrochemical plant through considering the obtained data from questionnaires and data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach. Moreover, the performance of RE and the new IRE are compared and discussed. The results show that although there is a strong direct correlation between the DEA results in two frameworks, the mean scores of efficiency in IRE is slightly higher than RE. This is the first study that introduces an integrated approach for RE. In addition, this study is amongst the first ones that examine the behavior of resilience engineering by DEA. Moreover, the superiority of IRE is shown through robust statistical analysis.     

New Zealand drivers study: developing a methodology for conducting a follow-up study of newly licensed drivers

PROBLEM: In recent years, there has been a significant reduction in traffic crash injury among young people, but they continue to be overrepresented in the traffic crash statistics. To improve this situation, sound scientific evidence is needed to develop effective policies and programs. METHOD: The aim of the proposed study is to provide this evidence by examining early driving and driving-related experiences of newly licensed drivers as they progress through the learner-, restricted-, and full-license stages of the graduated licensing system and to determine the impact of these experiences on subsequent negative traffic-related outcomes (risky driving behavior, injury traffic crashes, noninjury traffic crashes, infringements, convictions). Given the size and complexity of the proposed study, a comprehensive pilot study was undertaken to determine the feasibility of conducting a New Zealand-wide cohort study of newly licensed drivers. RESULTS: This article describes the pilot study process and the methodology that has been developed for the New Zealand-wide study.     

Alcohol-impaired motorcyclists versus car drivers: A comparison of crash involvement and legal consequence from adjudication data

Introduction: Driving under the influence (DUI) increases the probability of motor-vehicle collisions, especially for motorcycles with less protections. This study aimed to identify commonalities and differences between criminally DUI offenses (i.e., with a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of 80 mg/dL or higher) committed by motorcyclists and car drivers. Methods: A total of 10,457 motorcycle DUIs and 8,402 car DUIs were compared using a series of logistic regression models, using data extracted from the documents of adjudication decisions by the courts of Jiangsu, China. Results: The results revealed that offenders from the high-BAC group (i.e., 200 mg/dL or higher) accounted for more than 20% of the total DUI offenses, and were more likely to be involved in a crash and punished with a longer detention. Motorcyclists had a higher likelihood of crash involvement, and were also more likely to be responsible for single-vehicle crashes associated with higher odds of injury sustained, compared to alcohol-impaired car drivers. In the verdict, motorcycle offenders were more likely to receive a less severe penalty. Conclusions: Interventions are clearly required to focus on reducing in the high-BAC group of offenders. For alcohol-impaired motorcyclists, their risks of crash and injury against BAC climb more steeply than the risks for car drivers. The factors including frequent occurrences, uncertainty of detection, and short-term sentences may weaken the deterrence effect of the criminalization of motorcycle DUI. Practical Applications: The traffic-related adjudication data support traffic safety analysis. Strategies such as combating motorcycle violations (e.g., unlicensed operators or driving unsafe vehicles), undertaking education and awareness campaigns, are expected for DUI prevention.     

Investigation of crashes at pedestrian hybrid beacons: Results of a large-scale study in Arizona

Introduction: The pedestrian hybrid beacon (PHB) is a traffic control device used at pedestrian crossings. A recent Arizona Department of Transportation research effort investigated changes in crashes for different severity levels and crash types (e.g., rear-end crashes) due to the PHB presence, as well as for crashes involving pedestrians and bicycles. Method: Two types of methodologies were used to evaluate the safety of PHBs: (a) an Empirical Bayes (EB) before-after study, and (b) a long-term cross-sectional observational study. For the EB before-after evaluation, the research team considered three reference groups: unsignalized intersections, signalized intersections, and both unsignalized and signalized intersections combined. Results: For the signalized and combined unsignalized and signalized intersection groups, all crash types considered showed statistically significant reductions in crashes (e.g., total crashes, fatal and injury crashes, rear-end crashes, fatal and injury rear-end crashes, angle crashes, fatal and injury angle crashes, pedestrian-related crashes, and fatal and injury pedestrian-related crashes). A cross-sectional study was conducted with a larger number of PHBs (186) to identify relationships between roadway characteristics and crashes at PHBs, especially with respect to the distance to an adjacent traffic control signal. The distance to an adjacent traffic signal was found to be significant only at the α = 0.1 level, and only for rear-end and fatal and injury rear-end crashes. Conclusions: This analysis represents the largest known study to date on the safety impacts of PHBs, along with a focus on how crossing and geometric characteristics affect crash patterns. The study showed the safety benefits of PHBs for both pedestrians and vehicles. Practical Applications: The findings from this study clearly support the installation of PHBs at midblock or intersection crossings, as well as at crossings on higher-speed roads.     

Investigating hazardous factors affecting freeway crash injury severity incorporating real-time weather data: Using a Bayesian multinomial logit model with conditional autoregressive priors

Introduction: It has been demonstrated that weather conditions have significant impacts on freeway safety. However, when employing an econometric model to examine freeway crash injury severity, most of the existing studies tend to categorize several different adverse weather conditions such as rainy, snowy, and windy conditions into one category, “adverse weather,” which might lead to a large amount of information loss and estimation bias. Hence, to overcome this issue, real-time weather data, the value of meteorological elements when crashes occurred, are incorporated into the dataset for freeway crash injury analysis in this study. Methods: Due to the possible existence of spatial correlations in freeway crash injury data, this study presents a new method, the spatial multinomial logit (SMNL) model, to consider the spatial effects in the framework of the multinomial logit (MNL) model. In the SMNL model, the Gaussian conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior is adopted to capture the spatial correlation. In this study, the model results of the SMNL model are compared with the model results of the traditional multinomial logit (MNL) model. In addition, Bayesian inference is adopted to estimate the parameters of these two models. Result: The result of the SMNL model shows the significance of the spatial terms, which demonstrates the existence of spatial correlation. In addition, the SMNL model has a better model fitting ability than the MNL model. Through the parameter estimate results, risk factors such as vertical grade, visibility, emergency medical services (EMS) response time, and vehicle type have significant effects on freeway injury severity. Practical Application: According to the results, corresponding countermeasures for freeway roadway design, traffic management, and vehicle design are proposed to improve freeway safety. For example, steep slopes should be avoided if possible, and in-lane rumble strips should be recommended for steep down-slope segments. Besides, traffic volume proportion of large vehicles should be limited when the wind speed exceeds a certain grade.     

Committing driving violations: An observational study comparing city, town and village

Introduction

This article compares observed driving behavior in a city, a town, and a village.

Method

Unobtrusive observations were made at intersections in each residential type. Five violation types were observed: (a) not wearing a seat belt (seat belt violation); (b) not using a safety seat for a child (safety seat violation for children); (c) not using a speaker while speaking on the phone (on-phone violation); (d) failing to comply with a ‘give way’ sign (‘give way’ sign violation); and (e) stopping in an undesignated area (undesignated stop violation). It was expected that in accordance with the anonymity hypothesis that the bigger residential areas' rate of traffic violations would be higher. The effects of the residential type, drivers' gender, and age were assessed using the multiple regression model. The stepwise method of evaluation was employed. The model converged on step 3 (Adjusted R square = 0.039). Residential type and gender contributed significantly to the model. Results: Consistent with prior research, male drivers committed more violations than female drivers. Chi-square analyses were used to test the distribution of violations by the settlement types. Overall, more drivers committed violations in the two small residential areas than in the city, with 30% of city drivers, 43% of town drivers, and 51% of village drivers committing at least one violation (χ2 (2) = 37.65, p < 0.001). Moreover, in the town and the village, a combination of one or more violations was committed more often than in the city (χ2 (1) = 34.645, p < 0.001). Accordingly, more drivers committed violations in the two small settlements (48.4%) than in the city (30.6%). Possible explanations for the observed results were provided in the Discussion section.

Impact on Industry

The conclusions of this paper are that drivers in small villages tend to disobey traffic laws. Therefore, efforts have to be made in companies to take this issue in consideration while running fleets in companies located in small places far from the center.     

基于集对分析原理和熵权理论的水资源安全评价——以河南省安阳市为例

在阐述集对分析基本原理的基础上,在水资源安全领域引入了集对分析方法,运用熵权并结合总联系度值确定水资源安全等级.构建了包括经济状况、水资源条件、生活、生产和生态用水的3级评价指标体系,分析了水资源安全标准的制定特点和原则,并以河南省安阳市为例进行研究.结果表明,安阳市水资源安全等级较低,80％的评价结果属于极不安全或不安全等级.区域差异性明显,市区安全等级最高,为基本安全等级;内黄县最低,除2008年为安全等级,其余年份均为不安全等级.水资源安全具有相对稳定的发展趋势,但是全市水资源安全程度有所增强.水资源安全的影响因素与区域安全程度密切相关,提高区域水资源安全等级,必须从影响因素入手,全面改善用水的各个环节和因素.研究表明,集对分析方法和熵权理论相结合能够有效评价区域水资源安全.     

Driver distraction by digital billboards? Structural equation modeling based on naturalistic driving study data: A case study of Iran

Introduction: Digital billboards (DBs) are a competing factor for attracting drivers’ attention; evidence shows that DBs may cause crashes and vehicle conflicts because they catch drivers’ attention. Because of the complexity of a system that includes road conditions, driver features, and environmental factors, it is simply not possible to identify relationships between these factors. Thus, the present study was conducted to provide a well-organized procedure to analyze the effects of DBs on drivers’ behavior and measure factors responsible for drivers’ distraction in Babol, Iran, as a case study. Method: Corresponding data were collected through a Naturalistic Driving Study (NDS) of 78 participants when facing DBs (1,326 samples). These data were analyzed by applying structural equation modeling (SEM) to concurrently recognize relationships between endogenous and exogenous variables. Human, environmental, and road factors were determined as exogenous latent variables in a model to evaluate their influences on drivers’ distraction as an endogenous variable. Results: The results showed that road, environmental, and human factors reciprocally interact with drivers’ distraction, although the estimated coefficient of human factors was more of a factor than that of the other groups. Furthermore, younger drivers, beginner drivers, and male drivers (as human factors); night and unclear weather like a rainy day (as environmental factors); and installing DBs at complicated traffic positions like near-intersections (as road factors) were determined to be the main factors that increase the possibility of drivers’ distraction. Finally, model assessment was suggested using the goodness-of-fit indices.     

Modeling and optimizing efficiency gap between managers and operators in integrated resilient systems: The case of a petrochemical plant

The reliability issue in complex industrial systems such as oil, gas, petrochemical companies, nuclear and aviation industries has been of great importance. Resilience engineering (RE) is a new attitude toward the improvement of safety and reliability in the stated systems. One of the challenges a resilient system might face is the gap between work as imagined by managers and work as actually done by operators. This study will introduce a new framework named integrated resilience engineering (IRE) as a result of developing the concept of RE. The data used in this research have been obtained by means of questionnaire from a petrochemical company. Thereafter, the efficiency of operators and managers are calculated in RE and IRE frameworks through data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach. Then, the gaps between managers and operators are analyzed in two frameworks. The results are indicative of a significant growth in the number of efficient operators and managers in IRE framework compared to RE framework. Besides, the efficiency mean of managers and operators in IRE framework has experienced the growth of 1.8% and 5% compared to RE framework, respectively. The efficiency gap between managers and operators in IRE framework has also enjoyed the improvement of 88% compared to RE framework. Generally, it can be said that the suggested items of this research has led to the betterment of managers and operators’ efficiency and of the efficiency gap between them. Therefore, these items can improve the resilience and safety of complex systems. The results of Spearman test show that there is a strong direct correlation between the DEA results in two frameworks. This is the first study that examines the efficiency gap between operators and managers based on the RE principles and by means of DEA approach.