Adaptation planning and the use of climate change projections in local government in England and Germany

Planning for adaptation to climate change is often regarded to be a local imperative and considered to be more effective if grounded on a solid evidence base and recognisant of relevant climate projections. Research has already documented some of the challenges of making climate information usable in decision-making but has not yet sufficiently reflected on the role of the wider institutional and regulatory context. This article examines the impact of the external institutional context on the use and usability of climate projections in local government through an analysis of 44 planning and climate change (adaptation) documents and 54 semi-structured interviews with planners in England and Germany conducted between July 2013 and May 2014. We show that there is little demand for climate projections in local adaptation planning in either country due to existing policy, legal and regulatory frameworks. Local government in England has not only experienced a decline in use of climate projections, but also the waning of the climate change adaptation agenda more widely, amidst changes in the planning and regulatory framework and severe budget cuts. In Germany, spatial planning makes substantial use of past and present climate data, but the strictly regulated nature of planning prevents the use of climate projections, due to their inherent uncertainties. Findings from the two countries highlight that if we are to better understand the usability of climate projections, we need to be more aware of the institutional context within which planning decisions are made. Otherwise we run the risk of continuing to provide tools and information that are of limited use within their intended context.     

Entry points for climate-informed planning for the water resources and agriculture sectors in Cambodia

Incorporating climate change concerns into national development planning allows adaptation to happen in harmony with the sustainable development of a country. Cambodia has received international support to enable climate change-resilient development; “mainstreaming climate change” is one of the key recent strategies. This article aims to identify entry points for integrating climate change concerns into national development planning, especially for the water resources and agriculture sectors. The study uses institutional ethnography research methods with informants drawn from government organisations, local academic institutions, and development partners, together with content analysis of key policy documents. It was found that the Cambodian national planning process restricts the involvement of other actors such as researchers, civil society, and private sector; yet flexible, in that it provides opportunities for the inclusion of climate change and other related concerns. The study identified specific entry points in key policy documents, such as the National Strategic Development Plans, and ministries’ plans. Other entry points were identified in the development planning process, for example, in the process of development departments and ministries’ plans, and actors such as department planners, and departments of planning of line ministries. Climate-informed planning is now plausible; more significant integration of concerns with future climate change, however, will require more commitment and stronger connections among national planning stakeholders, adaptation actors, and research communities.     

Costs and benefits of adapting spatial planning to climate change: lessons learned from a large-scale urban development project in the Netherlands

Climate change increases the vulnerability of low-lying coastal areas. Careful spatial planning can reduce this vulnerability, provided that decision-makers have insight into the costs and benefits of adaptation options. This paper addresses the question which adaptation options are suitable, from an economic perspective, to adapt spatial planning to climate change at a regional scale. We apply social cost–benefit analysis to assess the net benefits of adaptation options that deal with the impacts of climate change-induced extreme events. From the methods applied and results obtained, we also aim at learning lessons for assessing climate adaptation options. The case study area, the Zuidplaspolder, is a large-scale urban development project in the Netherlands. The costs as well as the primary and secondary benefits of adaptation options relating to spatial planning (e.g. flood-proof housing and adjusted infrastructure) are identified and where possible quantified. Our results show that three adaptation options are not efficient investments, as the investment costs exceed the benefits of avoided damages. When we focus on ‘climate proofing’ the total area of the Zuidplaspolder, when the costs and benefits of all the presented adaptation options are considered together, the total package has a positive net present value. The study shows that it is possible to anticipate climate change impacts and assess the costs and benefits of adjusting spatial planning. We have learned that scenario studies provide a useful tool but that decision-making under climate change uncertainty also requires insight into the probabilities of occurrence of weather extremes in the future.     

Climate change,sustainable water management and institutional adaptation in rural sub-Saharan Africa

Much current work on climate adaptation options vis-à-vis water management in rural sub-Saharan Africa has tended to focus more on technological and infrastructural alternatives and less on institutional alternatives. Yet, vulnerability to climate variability and change in these contexts is a function not just of biophysical outcomes but also of institutional factors that can vary significantly at relatively finer scales. This paper seeks to contribute towards closing this gap by examining institutional options for sustainable water management in rural SSA in the context of climate change and variability. It explores challenges for transforming water-related institutions and puts forward institutional alternatives towards adapting to increasingly complex conditions created by climate change and variability. The paper suggests revisiting the Integrated Water Resources Management approach which has dominated water institutional debates and reforms in Africa over the recent past, towards actively adopting resilience and adaptive management lenses in crafting water institutional development initiatives.     

Climate change: an amplifier of existing health risks in developing countries

Global warming is perceived as one of the biggest global health risks of the twenty-first century and a threat to the achievement of sustainable (economic) development; especially in developing countries, climate change is believed to further exacerbate existing vulnerability to disease and food security risks, because their populations are, for example, more reliant on agriculture and more vulnerable to droughts and have a lower adaptive capacity. Furthermore, the health-related impacts of climate change are threatening to undo decades of development policies. The interactions between climate and non-climate factors are of vital importance in shaping human vulnerability to global warming. Climate change cannot be seen as ‘a stand-alone risk factor,’ but rather as an amplifier of existing health and food security risks and an additional strain on institutional infrastructures. In order to avoid a multiplication of health risks in the developing world, there is a need to better understand the multifaceted and complex linkages involved. This is further illustrated for two important climate change–induced health risks, namely malnutrition and malaria. As the amplification of existing and emerging health risks in the developing world might become the greatest tragedy of climate change, adaptation ranks high on developing countries’ agendas. Of particular importance are the discussions about the ‘Green Climate Fund,’ which aims to administer billions of dollars for mitigation and adaptation. Of course, making funds for adaptation available is an important first step, but we also need to ask ourselves the question how such adaptation policies and projects should take shape. This paper demonstrates that an adequate response to climate change health risks should take a systems approach toward adaptation, acknowledging the importance of the local context of the most vulnerable.     

Mapping of bioclimatic comfort for potential planning using GIS in Aydin

People are relaxed (satisfied or well-off) in what is described as comfortable climatic conditions. In such conditions, a person’s energy balance is not disturbed because of stresses from extreme heat or cold. Bioclimatic structure has been well researched and should be a consideration in the planning process for arranging comfortable spaces. It represents the understanding that energy balance is one of the basic elements of a sustainable landscape design. The goals of this study have been to create ideal places for human thermal comfort and to advance objectives focused on the importance of sustainable and ecological landscape planning and design work, along with their accompanying economic benefits. In this study, which focuses on the climate of the Province of Aydin, the most suitable areas for bioclimatic comfort have been identified. The climate values for the Aydin Province have been taken from a total of 22 meteorological stations. Stations at altitudes ranging from 11 to 871 m were used to note the climate changes that occurred. The average temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed from each station, including data collected using Geographic Information System (GIS) software, were transferred. GIS maps were then created from the imported data, and areas of optimal comfort around the city of Aydin were determined. The results show the range that is suitable for a bioclimatic comfort zone in Aydin. The bioclimatic comfort range was determined to be roughly 17 °C for Aydin, and the city of Aydin demonstrated a comfort range between 14 and 19 °C. As a result, the city of Aydin was shown to be a suitable area for bioclimatic comfort.     

An integrated decision-support process for adaptation planning: climate change as impetus for scenario planning in an agricultural region of Canada

The amount of information required to adapt to climate change is vast: downscaled climate projections, information on environmental impact, sectoral performance, external drivers, regional strategies, policies and practices. It can be argued that most of this information is accessible at the community/regional level, and thus, the important challenges to adaptation are not information gaps, but constraints created by fragmented planning decisions and a sector-by-sector basis for financial and human resource allocations. To strategically address this through adaptation planning, we developed and tested a place-based decision-making framework that creates an integrated platform for considering regional and global sectoral drivers in Eastern Ontario, Canada. Using available socioeconomic and biophysical information from regional authorities, alternative future scenarios were used to describe the range of socioeconomic futures and their vulnerabilities to climate change. We found that: (1) integration of diverse sets of available data (rather than narrowly focused sectoral assessments) helped identify shared common objectives (maximizing the long-term environmental, economic, social well-being within the region), (2) a high degree of congruence existed as the key drivers of change, irrespective of sector, (3) exploring the future scenarios highlighted shared regional priorities and helped identify adaptation priorities requiring more integrated regional planning.     

Toward design principles for joint knowledge production projects: lessons from the deepest polder of The Netherlands

In various countries, actors try to reconcile climate science and policy through joint knowledge production (JNP). While many conceptual analyses of JNP exist, empirical studies that actually try to assess JNP processes are rare. This paper aims to fill this gap through an empirical analysis of the ‘Hotspot Zuidplaspolder’ project in which scientists, policymakers and other actors collaboratively looked for ways to ‘climate proof’ existing plans for urban development in one of the deepest polders of the Netherlands. The analysis is done by identifying and explaining the credibility and salience of the knowledge produced as well as the perceived legitimacy of the JNP process. Seven success factors derived from existing literature were used in the analysis. Stakeholders appeared to evaluate this project as positive, but the analysis shows that criteria and thresholds regarding success differ between the actors involved. We found three underlying design principles that should be followed to enhance the success of future JNP projects. First, it is necessary to organize several instances for reflection on the project processes. Second, new reward structures are needed to stimulate actors to take new initiatives and come up with creative ideas. Third, projects and programs should provide room to make mistakes and learn from them. This first set of empirical design principles for JNP is useful but should be further refined and nuanced in order to better deal with the social complexity of climate change and other wicked problems.     

Regional engagement and spatial modelling for natural resource management planning

Changing unsustainable natural resource use in agricultural landscapes is a complex social–ecological challenge that cannot be addressed through traditional reductionist science. More holistic and inclusive (or transdisciplinary) processes are needed. This paper describes a transdisciplinary project for natural resource management planning in two regions (Eyre Peninsula and South Australian Murray-Darling Basin) of southern Australia. With regional staff, we reviewed previous planning to gain an understanding of the processes used and to identify possible improvement in plan development and its operation. We then used an envisioning process to develop a value-rich narrative of regional aspirations to assist stakeholder engagement and inform the development of a land use management option assessment tool called the landscape futures analysis tool (LFAT). Finally, we undertook an assessment of the effectiveness of the process through semi-structured stakeholder interviews. The planning process review highlighted the opinion that the regional plans were not well informed by available science, that they lacked flexibility, and were only intermittently used after publication. The envisioning process identified shared values—generally described as a trust, language that is easily understood, wise use of resources, collaboration and inclusiveness. LFAT was designed to bring the best available science together in a form that would have use in planning, during community consultation and in assessing regional management operations. The LFAT provided spatially detailed but simple models of agricultural yields and incomes, plant biodiversity, weed distribution, and carbon sequestration associated with future combinations of climate, commodity and carbon prices, and costs of production. Stakeholders were impressed by the presentation and demonstration results of the software. While there was anecdotal evidence that the project provided learning opportunities and increased understanding of potential land use change associated with management options under global change, the direct evidence of influence in the updated regional plan was limited. This project had elements required for success in transdisciplinary research, but penetration seems limited. Contributing factors appear to be a complexity of climate effects with economic uncertainty, lack of having the project embedded in the plan revision process, limited continuity and capacity of end users and limited after project support and promotion. Strategies are required to minimise the controlling influence that these limitations can have.     

重大工程对血吸虫病流行区扩散的潜在影响

归纳了我国三峡工程、退田还湖及南水北调等一系列重大工程所引起水位、植被及微生物气候等生态环境要素变化对血吸虫唯一中间宿主钉螺分布的影响,分析了血吸虫病疫区的变化趋势和钉螺北移的可能性。研究表明三大工程实施区存在血吸虫病流行的潜在危险,加之我国新增有螺面积明显增多,血吸虫病疫情呈此消彼涨态势,血防工作形势依然严峻。当前国内有关工程对生态环境及血吸虫病影响的研究,主要为局部的调查报告及在现有基础上预测工程对血吸虫病流行的可能影响,生态环境变化还需要时间来验证。因此,建议应用GIS和RS等技术,监测分析生态环境变化,并进一步研究社会经济变动与血吸虫病传播的关系,同时,工程实施地区应提高疫区群众自我防护意识和能力,并结合林业、水利工程建设对有螺环境进行改造.     

Mainstreaming climate adaptation into urban planning: overcoming barriers, seizing opportunities and evaluating the results in two Dutch case studies

With cities facing climate change, climate adaptation is necessary to reduce risks such as heat stress and flooding and maintain the goals of sustainable urban development. In climate change literature, the focus has been on developing a new dedicated policy domain for climate adaptation. Yet, empirical evidence shows that in practice actors are searching for solutions that not only serve climate adaptation, but integrate the adaptation objective in existing policy domains (e.g., urban planning, water management, public health). The integration of adaptation in other policy domains, also called “mainstreaming climate adaptation,” can stimulate the effectiveness of policy making through combining objectives, increase efficient use of human and financial resources and ensure long-term sustainable investments. A better understanding of the process of mainstreaming is, however, lacking. The article introduces a conceptual model for mainstreaming climate adaptation to enhance our understanding of the concept as well as the barriers and opportunities that influence these integration processes and to explore strategies for overcoming barriers and creating opportunities. Two Dutch case studies—related to urban planning—are used to illustrate the value of the model. The cases demonstrate the dynamic process of mainstreaming and raise discussion of the appropriate criteria for evaluating mainstreaming in relation to the aims of climate adaptation. The paper concludes with an exploration of specific strategies to facilitate the mainstreaming of adaptation in existing and new policy domains.     

Agricultural innovation and adaptation to climate change: empirical evidence from diverse agro-ecologies in South Asia

While impacts of climate change on agricultural systems have been widely researched, there is still limited understanding of what agricultural innovations have evolved over time in response to both climatic and non-climatic drivers. Although there has been some progress in formulating national adaptation policies and strategic planning in different countries of South Asia, research to identify local-level adaptive strategies and practices is still limited. Through eight case studies and a survey of 300 households in 15 locations in India, Nepal and Bangladesh, this paper generates empirical evidence on emerging agricultural innovations in contrasting socio-economic, geographical and agro-ecological contexts. The study demonstrates that several farm practices (innovations) have emerged in response to multiple drivers over time, with various forms of institutional and policy support, including incentives to reduce risks in the adoption of innovative practice. It further shows that there is still limited attempt to systematically mainstream adaptation innovations into local, regional and national government structures, policies and planning processes. The paper shows that the process of farm-level adaptation through innovation adoption forms an important avenue for agricultural adaptation in South Asia. A key implication of this finding is that there is a need for stronger collaborations between research institutions, extension systems, civil society and the private sector actors to enhance emerging adaptive innovations at the farm level.     

Exploring the relationship between climate change and violent conflict

ABSTRACT

Does climate change lead to violent conflict? This article reviews the existing literature connecting climatic conditions to conflict. It finds that the existing literature has not detected a robust and general effect from climate to conflict onset. Moreover, there exists scientific agreement that climatic changes can contribute to conflict under some conditions and through certain pathways. In particular, the recent literature offers considerable suggestive evidence that climatic changes can lead to conflict in countries and/or regions, which are dependent on agriculture, host politically excluded groups, and have ineffective institutions. Future research should focus not only on understanding of the pathways and contexts in which climatic changes are most likely to increase or exacerbate the risk of conflict but also work to understand the mechanisms by which climate variability and change might cause conflict.     

Leadership within regional climate change adaptation networks: the case of climate adaptation officers in Northern Hesse,Germany

In the climate adaptation literature, leadership tends to be an understudied factor, although it may be crucial for regional adaptation governance. This article shows how leadership can be usefully conceptualized and operationalized within regional governance networks dealing with climate adaptation. It applies an integrative framework inspired by complexity leadership theory, distinguishing several leadership functions to enhance the adaptive capacity of regional networks. We focus on one specific institutional innovation, appointed climate adaptation officers, who seek to connect science and governance practice, and to mainstream climate adaptation. Our question is twofold: What is the potential of climate adaptation officers to advance the adaptation agenda and to what extent did their establishment and working practice mirror the various leadership functions needed to raise the adaptive capacity of the regional network they operated in? The integrative leadership framework structures the analysis of climate adaptation officers forming part of a government-funded project seeking to enhance adaptation to climate variability in the central German region of Northern Hesse. The data consist of interviews with scientists and regional authority employees and project documentation including an evaluation. We find that climate adaptation officers raised awareness for climate adaptation and helped to shape and implement a number of projects within the overall KLIMZUG programme, highlighting impeding and enabling factors. The process of setting up this institutional innovation involved all forms of leadership functions and is an example of vertical mainstreaming. Its operation involved most clearly enabling and connective leadership functions and is an example of horizontal mainstreaming.     

Simulation and multicriteria analysis in sustainable coastal planning: the case of aquaculture in Thermaikos Gulf, Greece

Mussel aquaculture in Thermaikos Gulf is facing a great challenge to tackle both institutional and production planning aspects. Local stakeholders are concerned about the future design of an efficient and equitable legal planning framework for the aquaculture, as well as about the improvement of production planning in order to optimize the total economic outcome of mussel activity in the area. The present paper focuses on the assessment of alternative production planning decisions, under the assumption that an efficient and socially acceptable institutional framework is already established. To this end, a case-specific decision-making tool is designed aiming to combine simulation modelling and multicriteria analysis. The main interactions between the environmental and cultivation conditions and the socio-economic parameters of the local aquaculture are specified according to a previous modelling effort concerning the long-line mussel farms of the study area. These interactions are then incorporated into a multicriteria model, which is formulated to handle the decision-making problem of selecting the best alternative planning decisions. This is actually a problem of evaluating and choosing the most promising policy options in terms of local society preferences. An integrated approach is followed, by means of an analytic hierarchy process, aiming at analysing the preferences of local community by determining the weights for a specific set of (sustainability) criteria. The relative importance of these criteria is determined through a questionnaire survey among the local stakeholders. The results from this application show that future planning policies should focus on production techniques, which are likely to enhance the quality of mussel production and, at the same time, to minimize the economic risk associated with the local occurrence of Harmful Algal Bloom events.     

Synergistic vulnerabilities: climate variability and fire management policy increase farming challenges in southeastern Mexico

Agricultural fire for land preparation is central in the livelihoods of subsistence farmers practicing shifting cultivation. Achieving a good agricultural burn, one in which the biomass is thoroughly consumed within the chosen area, depends on specific weather conditions. Fire use decisions are also shaped by institutions that define the timing and rules for fire use but also constrain the alternatives and shape adaptive capacities. Global and regional climate changes interact with the institutional framing of fire management affecting local fire use and burn outcomes. These effects are documented and analyzed to suggest adaptations to existing governance systems. We examined subsistence farmers’ socio-ecological vulnerability in the Calakmul municipality, located in southeastern Mexico. Using interviews with farmers and government agents, as well as participatory mapping and observation of agricultural burns, we studied fire management knowledge, practices and burn outcomes. Our results describe a continuum of burn outcomes covering good agricultural burns, uncontrolled burns leading to wildfires and “malquemados” literally poorly burned areas. Malquemados represent unsuccessful combustion associated with excess moisture that results in scorched vegetation. We discuss how unexpected early rains trigger effects that cascade through space and the ecological, economic and cultural domains. We argue that fire management has been historically approached from a conservation standpoint yet agricultural fire use and wildfire prevention should also be addressed from a rural development perspective. This shift in fire management would lead to the proper inclusion of the entire array of burn outcomes in studies and policies addressing farmers’ vulnerability amplified by synergistic effects between climate variability and institutional change.     

Climate change adaptation,flood risks and policy coherence in integrated water resources management in England

Integrated water resources management (IWRM) assumes coherence between cognate aspects of water governance at the river basin scale, for example water quality, energy production and agriculture objectives. But critics argue that IWRM is often less ‘integrated’ in practice, raising concerns over inter-sectoral coherence between implementing institutions. One increasingly significant aspect of IWRM is adaptation to climate change-related risks, including threats from flooding, which are particularly salient in England. Although multiple institutional mechanisms exist for flood risk management (FRM), their coherence remains a critical question for national adaptation. This paper therefore (1) maps the multi-level institutional frameworks determining both IWRM and FRM in England; (2) examines their interaction via various inter-institutional coordinating mechanisms; and (3) assesses the degree of coherence. The analysis suggests that cognate EU strategic objectives for flood risk assessment demonstrate relatively high vertical and horizontal coherence with river basin planning. However, there is less coherence with flood risk requirements for land-use planning and national flood protection objectives. Overall, this complex governance arrangement actually demonstrates de-coherence over time due to ongoing institutional fragmentation. Recommendations for increasing IWRM coherence in England or re-coherence based on greater spatial planning and coordination of water-use and land-use strategies are proposed.

     

Institutional capacity for long-term climate change adaptation: evidence from land use planning in Albay,Philippines

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation (CCA) into plans and programs is still a new approach in adaptation and thus there is limited information on how to operationalize it on-ground. This paper addresses this gap by investigating the challenges in mainstreaming CCA into the local land use plans in the province of Albay, Philippines. Specifically, this paper developed 20 quantitative “mainstreaming indicators” to assess the state-of-play and the challenges for local mainstreaming. These indicators were classified under three groupings, namely, the information, institutional, and resource capacities of systems. Qualitative analysis of the indicator scores suggested that developing the institutional capacities of local governments is crucial in the local mainstreaming process. Likewise, the results highlighted the “institutional issues” indicator as the primary barrier in operationalizing the approach. These institutional issues are: fragmented laws and regulations; overlapping policy requirements; and the lack of guidelines for mainstreaming CCA into the local land use plans. Meanwhile, the “leadership” indicator, as signified by a climate change champion in Albay, was evaluated as an opportunity for local mainstreaming. The champion effectively led the CCA efforts because the existing institutional mechanisms supported the champion’s capacity to influence the behavior of people and produce collective action towards CCA.     

Transdisciplinary research in support of land and water management in China and Southeast Asia: evaluation of four research projects

Transdisciplinary research (TDR) aims at identifying implementable solutions to difficult sustainability problems and at fostering social learning. It requires a well-managed collaboration among multidisciplinary scientists and multisectoral stakeholders. Performing TDR is challenging, particularly for foreign researchers working in countries with different institutional and socio-cultural conditions. There is a need to synthesize and share experience among researchers as well as practitioners regarding how TDR can be conducted under specific contexts. In this paper, we aim to evaluate and synthesize our unique experience in conducting TDR projects in Asia. We applied guiding principles of TDR to conduct a formative evaluation of four consortium projects on sustainable land and water management in China, the Philippines, and Vietnam. In all projects, local political conditions restricted the set of stakeholders that could be involved in the research processes. The set of involved stakeholders was also affected by the fact that stakeholders in most cases only participate if they belong to the personal network of the project leaders. Language barriers hampered effective communication between foreign researchers and stakeholders in all projects and thus knowledge integration. The TDR approach and its specific methods were adapted to respond to the specific cultural, social, and political conditions in the research areas, also with the aim to promote trust and interest of the stakeholders throughout the project. Additionally, various measures were implemented to promote collaboration among disciplinary scientists. Based on lessons learned, we provide specific recommendations for the design and implementation of TDR projects in particular in Asia.     

规划项目大气环境影响评价要点及案例研究

由于规划项目涉及面广、不确定性强、行业多样等特点,目前还没有针对规划环评的通用方法。虽然很多适用于建设项目环境影响评价的方法可以直接用于规划环评,但二者之间仍存在着很大的不同。结合规划项目的环境影响评价特点与评价要求,参考国内现有行业标准规范与新发布的大气评价导则技术要求,提出了规划项目大气环境影响评价的基本工作流程和4个工作要点,并通过具体案例应用,分别从基础资料收集与分析、环境影响预测方案制定、规划方案的比选及环境承载力的测算给出具体说明与实施方法。通过预测评价分析及方案比选,对规划选址、发展规模、规划布局、产业结构以及区域规划发展方式等进行综合分析,最终针对规划项目的污染控制及规划方案提出调整建议,为今后规划环境影响评价工作提供依据和技术参考。