Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces II: Scotland

This paper uses a sensitivity framework approach to look at the probabilistic impacts of climate change on 20-year return period flood peaks, by applying a set of typical response surfaces alongside the probabilistic UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) for 10 river-basin regions over Scotland. The first paper of the pair used the same approach for 10 river-basin regions over England and Wales. This paper develops the methodology for Scotland, by first enabling better estimation of the response type of Scottish catchments. Then, as for England and Wales, the potential range of impacts is shown for different types of catchment in each river-basin region in Scotland, and regional average impact ranges are estimated. Results show clear differences in impacts between catchments of different types and between regions. The Argyll and West Highland regions show the highest impacts, while the North-East Scotland region shows the lowest impacts. The overall ranges are generally smaller for Scotland than England and Wales.     

Assessment of climate change vulnerability of tourism in Hungary

This paper applies vulnerability assessment methodology to assess the comparative vulnerability of different tourism supply types by region in Hungary. The steps of the methodology include (1) definition of tourism supply typology, (2) identifying exposure indicators, (3) identifying sensitivity indicators, (4) identification of adaptive capacity indicators and (5) developing a vulnerability map. It is clear that climate change has potential negative effects on tourism in Hungary, but the spatial distribution, as well as the sub-sectoral (by tourism supply types) differences of these impacts is almost unknown. Most research papers dealing with the vulnerability of tourism mainly focus on a specific tourism type, whereas this article aims to address all of them from a regional point of view. The key results presented in this paper include the vulnerability map of the country showing the relative vulnerability of different tourism supply types and detailed analysis investigating the possible causes and driving factors. We have categorized tourism regions based on the five most vulnerable tourism supply types. The most significant of them all turned out to be outdoor event-based tourism, being the most vulnerable in the two southern regions, since the expected impacts of climate change are foreseen to be the most significant in these areas.     

Regional and global climate projections increase mid-century yield variability and crop productivity in Belgium

The impact of mid-century climatic changes on crop productivity of winter wheat, maize, potato and sugar beet was assessed for a temperate maritime climate in the Flemish Region, Belgium. Climatic projections of multiple regional and global climate models (RCMs from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3) were stochastically downscaled by the LARS-WG weather generator for use in the crop models AquaCrop and Sirius. Primarily positive effects on mean yield were simulated. Crops benefitted from elevated CO₂, and from more radiation interception if the cropping period was adapted in response to higher temperatures. However, increased productivity was linked with increased susceptibility to water stress and greater inter-annual yield variability, particularly with adapted management. Impacts differed among and within ensembles of climate models, and among crops and environments. Although RCMs may be more suitable for local impact assessments than GCMs, inter-ensemble differences and contingent wider ranges of impacts with GCM projections found in this study indicate that applying RCMs driven by a limited number of GCMs alone would not give the full range of possible impacts. Further, this study suggests that the simulated intermodel variation can be larger than spatial variation within the region. These findings advocate the use of both GCM and RCM ensembles in assessments where temperature and precipitation are central, such as for crop production.     

Addressing uncertainties in the ERICA Integrated Approach

Like any complex environmental problem, ecological risk assessment of the impacts of ionising radiation is confounded by uncertainty. At all stages, from problem formulation through to risk characterisation, the assessment is dependent on models, scenarios, assumptions and extrapolations. These include technical uncertainties related to the data used, conceptual uncertainties associated with models and scenarios, as well as social uncertainties such as economic impacts, the interpretation of legislation, and the acceptability of the assessment results to stakeholders. The ERICA Integrated Approach has been developed to allow an assessment of the risks of ionising radiation, and includes a number of methods that are intended to make the uncertainties and assumptions inherent in the assessment more transparent to users and stakeholders. Throughout its development, ERICA has recommended that assessors deal openly with the deeper dimensions of uncertainty and acknowledge that uncertainty is intrinsic to complex systems. Since the tool is based on a tiered approach, the approaches to dealing with uncertainty vary between the tiers, ranging from a simple, but highly conservative screening to a full probabilistic risk assessment including sensitivity analysis. This paper gives on overview of types of uncertainty that are manifest in ecological risk assessment and the ERICA Integrated Approach to dealing with some of these uncertainties.     

Power asymmetries and institutions: landscape conservation in central India

Understanding the importance of cross-sectoral implications of climate and socio-economic change in Scotland is essential for adaptation policy. This study explored the direct and indirect sectoral impacts of future change using the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform. There is great spatial diversity in projected impacts across Scotland, and increasing uncertainty in the direction of change of impacts from the national to regional scale associated with climate uncertainty. Further uncertainty associated with socio-economic change results in 6 out of 13 indicators (artificial surfaces, biodiversity vulnerability, forest area, land-use intensity, irrigation usage and land-use diversity) with robust directions of change at the national scale and only three (artificial surfaces, forest area and irrigation usage) that are robust across all regions of Scotland. Complex interactions between socio-economic scenario assumptions (e.g. food imports, population and GDP), climatic suitability and agricultural productivity and profitability lead to significant national and regional changes in the distribution and extent of land cover types, with resultant cross-sectoral interactions with water, forestry and biodiversity. Consequently, stakeholders characterised robust adaptation policy options, within the CLIMSAVE participatory process, as those beneficial to society (and the country) in all scenarios, irrespective of the direction of change of the impacts. The integration in CLIMSAVE of a participatory scenario development process and an integrated participatory modelling framework has allowed the exploration of future uncertainty in a structured approach and better represented the importance of qualitative information and the social and institutional contexts within adaptation research.     

Perceptions of climate change risks in primary resource use industries: a survey of the Canadian mining sector

A survey documenting how climate change is perceived, experienced, and responded to in the Canadian mining sector was administered to industry practitioners at the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada annual meeting. Nine key findings from the survey are discussed: (1) The Canadian mining sector is sensitive to climate-related conditions. (2) Climate change is perceived to be having a negative impact on mining operations. (3) Companies are taking action to manage the current impacts. (4) Cost and uncertainty are commonly identified barriers to adapting to current climate change. (5) Future climate change is expected to have impacts for the industry. (6) Climate change projections are perceived as threats by the majority of respondents. (7) Despite the perceived threat, companies are not currently taking action to plan for future impacts. (8) Cost and uncertainty are commonly identified barriers to adapting to future climate change impacts. (9) The mining sector is currently making efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The survey is exploratory in nature, establishing a baseline for targeted research to assess in greater detail the vulnerability of mining to climate change.     

Future wave-driven coastal sediment transport along the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean)

In the context of climate change, this study evaluates the impact on the long-shore and cross-shore sediment transport (LST and CST) along the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean Sea) derived from climate projections obtained from five combinations of regional and global circulation models (RCMs and GCMs). Special emphasis is given to how inter-model variability translates from wave projections to wave-driven coastal impacts, which is still poorly known. Results show that the uncertainty is in general larger, especially for LST, for which the discrepancies among regional models are more relevant than those associated with the forcing wave parameters. Such increase in the uncertainty can be explained by the nonlinear processes involved, and the role of the forcing wave parameters having sometimes competing effects (e.g. wave height vs. wave direction). This illustrates that the performance of each RCM–GCM can vary from forcing to impact parameters; hence, the suitability of a particular RCM–GCM to evaluate a certain impact should be assessed based on its ability to properly simulate such impact. In this regard, LST and CST rates computed using empirical formulae that integrate several wave climate parameters, as in this study, can be used as a non-computationally expensive tool to assess the suitability of a given RCM–GCM to project changes in coastal dynamics.     

Regional industrial growth and environmental impacts in the Bohai Sea rim region of China: uncertainty in location choice

Regional industrial growth is facing the problems of no control and disorder in rapidly transitioning China, especially in mega-regional areas. These problems have significantly intensified the use of regional resources and the level of environmental stress. The integration of industrial development and the environmental pollution pressure simulation at the mega-regional level must be supported at the planning stage. In this study, a Computational System for Regional Industrial Distribution Simulation and Environmental Impact Assessment (RESEA) that combines a multi-nominal logit model and uncertainty analysis was developed. This system aimed to explore efficient industrial spatial distribution simulations and potential environmental pressures at the mega-regional level. This study also developed an uncertainty analysis framework to identify and apply a bottom-up system with aggregate and sparse data following the basic processes of an HSY algorithm and Global-Formed Regional Sensitivity Analysis, which is capable of considering both input uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. By applying the RESEA system, a process of model estimation and sensitivity analysis was implemented based on historic data from 2002 to 2008 for the Bohai Sea rim region in China. The future industry distribution for the year 2015 was later aggregated based on the chosen sizes and locations of newly added industrial plants. Finally, the pollution loads of surface water into every sub-region were calculated, and the potential environmental impacts of different strategies were discussed.     

分布式TOPMODEL模型在清江流域降雨径流模拟中的应用

以清江流域上游为研究区域,探讨TOPMODEL模型在大流域的应用;对比了SRTM和地形图两种DEM数据在流域地形指数计算及降雨径流模拟中的差异,结果表明,虽然不同DEM计算得到的地形指数和模型率定参数存在较大差异,但是模拟效率基本相同,SRTM数据作为全球覆盖的免费高分辨率DEM数据将极大促进TOPMODEL模型的应用;分析了TOPMODEL模型在大流域中应用存在的局限性,在此基础上,构建了基于子流域的松散耦合的分布式TOPMODEL模型,提出了利用流域实际下垫面数据进行模型参数率定的方法,探讨了子流域划分详细程度对模拟结果的影响,结果表明,分布式TOPMODEL模型充分考虑了流域降雨和下垫面属性空间不均匀性对水文过程的影响,模拟效率高于传统TOPMODEL模型,随着子流域数目的增加,模型在率定期和校验期的效率均呈上升趋势,但是到达一定程度之后,受降雨等输入参数及模型计算误差所限,增加子流域个数不能继续提高模拟效率.     

Vulnerability and adaptation of European farmers: a multi-level analysis of yield and income responses to climate variability

Climate change will affect crop yields and consequently farmers’ income. The underlying relationships are not well understood, particularly the importance of crop management and related factors at the farm and regional level. We analyze the impacts of trends and variability in climatic conditions from 1990 to 2003 on trends and variability in yields of five crops and farmers’ income at farm type and regional level in Europe considering farm characteristics and other factors. While Mediterranean regions are often characterized as most vulnerable to climate change, our data suggest effective adaptation to variable and changing conditions in these regions largely attributable to the characteristic farm types in these regions. We conclude that for projections of climate change impacts on agriculture, farm characteristics influencing management and adaptation should be considered, as they largely influence the potential impacts.     

Uncertainty in the difference between maps of future land change scenarios

It is essential to measure whether maps of various scenarios of future land change are meaningfully different, because differences among such maps serve to inform land management. This paper compares the output maps of different scenarios of future land change in a manner that contrasts two different approaches to account for the uncertainty of the simulated projections. The simpler approach interprets the scenario storyline concerning the quantity of each land change transition as assumption, and then considers the range of possibilities concerning the value added by a simulation model that specifies the spatial allocation of land change. The more complex approach estimates the uncertainty of future land maps based on a validation measurement with historic data. The technique is illustrated by a case study that compares two scenarios of future land change in the Plum Island Ecosystems of northeastern Massachusetts, in the United States. Results show that if the model simulates only the spatial allocation of the land changes given the assumed quantity of each transition, then there is a clearly bounded range for the difference between the raw scenario maps; but if the uncertainties are estimated by validation, then the uncertainties can be so great that the output maps do not show meaningful differences. We discuss the implications of these results for a future research agenda of land change modeling. We conclude that a productive approach is to use the simpler method to distinguish clearly between variations in the scenario maps that are due to scenario assumptions versus variations due to the simulation model.     

Adaptation planning and the use of climate change projections in local government in England and Germany

Planning for adaptation to climate change is often regarded to be a local imperative and considered to be more effective if grounded on a solid evidence base and recognisant of relevant climate projections. Research has already documented some of the challenges of making climate information usable in decision-making but has not yet sufficiently reflected on the role of the wider institutional and regulatory context. This article examines the impact of the external institutional context on the use and usability of climate projections in local government through an analysis of 44 planning and climate change (adaptation) documents and 54 semi-structured interviews with planners in England and Germany conducted between July 2013 and May 2014. We show that there is little demand for climate projections in local adaptation planning in either country due to existing policy, legal and regulatory frameworks. Local government in England has not only experienced a decline in use of climate projections, but also the waning of the climate change adaptation agenda more widely, amidst changes in the planning and regulatory framework and severe budget cuts. In Germany, spatial planning makes substantial use of past and present climate data, but the strictly regulated nature of planning prevents the use of climate projections, due to their inherent uncertainties. Findings from the two countries highlight that if we are to better understand the usability of climate projections, we need to be more aware of the institutional context within which planning decisions are made. Otherwise we run the risk of continuing to provide tools and information that are of limited use within their intended context.     

The undebated issue of justice: silent discourses in Dutch flood risk management

Regional Environmental Change - Flood risk of all types of flooding is projected to increase based on climate change projections and increases in damage potential. These challenges are likely to...     

中国无船承运企业空间格局演化及影响因素

无船承运企业对国际货物流通领域和区域内社会经济系统的高效运转都具有重要的现实意义。选取2006~2013年中国无船承运业务经营者为研究样本,从宏观区域、省级行政区和城市等多层尺度来刻画和分析中国无船承运企业的分布特征,并从多种因素来探讨无船承运企业空间分布的影响因素。研究发现:在空间维度上,中国无船承运企业分布格局呈现出明显的空间差异性。沿海地区多于内陆,东部地区明显多于东北和中西部地区,东部沿海尤其上海与广东2省市集聚明显,而在城市尺度上非均衡性分布更加突出,已形成明显的集聚区和稀疏区。在时间维度上,中国无船承运企业总量和拥有无船承运企业城市数量都呈递增趋势,但区域间递增幅度有所差异。综合交通网络、区域外贸经济发育程度、区域经济发展水平和产业结构、商务支撑条件等是影响中国无船承运企业分布的主要因素。     

长江经济带旅游生态效率时空演变及其影响因素

旅游生态效率是一种以"最小资源投入和环境破坏,最大经济社会产出"为核心目标,衡量旅游永续发展的重要指标。综合运用基于非期望产出的Super-SBM模型、地理空间分析方法和面板Tobit回归模型探索长江经济带2007～2016年旅游生态效率时空演变特征及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)研究期内,高效率省区主要分布于东部地区,较低效率省区分布广泛,其数量先减少后增加;而低效率省区数量较少,其分布范围总体从长江经济带东部向西部迁移。(2)长江经济带旅游生态效率区域差异性和集聚性均不断缩小,东部、中部和西部3地区内部差异是长江经济带区域差异的主要贡献者。(3)旅游经济规模、旅游产业结构、科技发展水平、城镇化发展水平和政府规制力度对各省区旅游生态效率影响的空间异质性较强。     

Carnivores in corridors: estimating tiger occupancy in Kanha–Pench corridor,Madhya Pradesh,India

Elderly people are known to be more vulnerable than the general population to a range of weather-related hazards such as heat waves, icy conditions and cold periods. In the Nordic region, some of these hazards are projected to change their frequency and intensity in the future, while at the same time strong increases are projected in the proportion of elderly in the population. This paper reports results from three projects studying the potential impacts of climate change on elderly people in the Nordic region. An interactive web-based tool has been developed for mapping and combining indicators of climate change vulnerability of the elderly, by municipality, across three Nordic countries: Finland, Norway and Sweden. The tool can also be used for projecting temperature-related mortality in Finland under different projections of future climate. The approach to vulnerability mapping differs from most previous studies in which researchers selected the indicators to combine into an index. Here, while researchers compile data on indicators that can be accessed in the mapping tool, the onus is on the users of the tool to decide which indicators are of interest and whether to map them individually or as combined indices. Stakeholders with responsibility for the care and welfare of the elderly were engaged in the study through interviews and a workshop. They affirmed the usefulness of the prototype mapping tool for raising awareness about climate change as a potential risk factor for the elderly and offered suggestions on potential refinements, which have now been implemented. These included adding background information on possible adaptation measures for ameliorating the impacts of extreme temperatures, and improved representation of uncertainties in projections of future exposure and adaptive capacity.     

Rethinking assessment of drought impacts: a systemic approach towards sustainability

Although impacting primarily economic sectors, droughts may also initiate dynamic mechanisms that have socio-environmental consequences on sustainability of the impacted areas. To date, most research has dealt with the economic impacts of droughts, with minimal attention being paid to the dynamics of damaging mechanisms associated with socio-environmental impacts. Using a systemic approach, this paper develops a method of identifying the dynamic structures responsible for the consequences of drought. Considering the impacts of recent droughts in Iran, the paper presents a conceptual model, underpinned by a Limits to Growth archetype to explain how different drought impacts are triggered. Moreover, adopting the Viability Loops concept, a range of strategies and indices are suggested as monitoring tools to sustain socio-economic life in a drought-impacted area. The provinces of Hamadan (with water abundance), and Yazd and Isfahan (with water scarcity) in Iran have been selected to illustrate the proposed methodology. Results show a higher vulnerability to droughts in the water-rich region due to dependence on water abundance as opposed to the water-poor regions, which are well adapted to water scarcity conditions.     

基于空间替代的环境规制产业结构效应研究

由于具有很强的外部效应,区域性是环境问题的主要特征之一。一个大的经济体内部差别化的环境保护政策容易导致环境敏感型产业在地区间的迁移,这一过程将引致地区之间产业结构的变迁。相对发达地区实行更加积极的环境保护措施,在产业的选择上限制污染型产业的发展,这势必将对原有污染型产业产生影响,加大环境保护投资、转行或者外迁是该区域内企业可能的选择。在环境政策不够严厉,产业的选择更为多样的地区,宽松的环境政策甚至是地方政府招商引资的一个优惠条件,则污染型产业是其发展的可能选择。本文通过对2003—2012年中西部19个省份11个污染型制造业工业总产值占全国比例结构的变迁进行实证检验,结果显示环境规制有非常明显的产业结构空间效应,存在对污染型制造业西迁的促进作用。区域差别性的环境政策确实突出了中西部地区的比较优势,使得环境污染密集型产业向西迁徙,实现了污染产业从中国东部向西部的空间替代。从空间的整体上看,也更有助于全面认识中国的产业升级现象。如果为了缩小地区发展差距,通过环保规制差异促进中西部地区的发展,而不是严格按照功能区进行分类环境保护和要素的自由流动,在这一过程中反映出来的产业结构变迁也是不健康的,东部地区的产业升级中的要素替代作用,尤其是技术进步的作用,无疑就会被夸大。看似中西部地区可能重新步入先发展后治理的老路,受到污染损害的仅是国家的另一片地区,但是由于中西部地区属于环境脆弱区和重要的水源上游,最终受伤害的将会是我们整个国家。     

Impact of point polluters on terrestrial ecosystems: Methodology of research,experimental design,and typical errors

The current state of the ecology of the impact regions is outlined. It is argued that the complex of ecosystems situated around a point polluter (an impact region) is an appropriate model for solving several fundamental and applied ecological problems related to the exploration of strong external impacts on biota. Typical methodological errors resulting from insufficient attention to specific features of passive experiments are analysed, and ways to avoid them are proposed. The principles of spatial arrangements of study sites within the impact region and of the selection of experimental and evaluation units are discussed.     

Regionalized Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: narratives and spatial population projections for the Mediterranean coastal zone

Regional Environmental Change - Existing narratives and population projections of the global-scale Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) do not capture regional differences in socioeconomic...