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Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces II: Scotland 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A. L. Kay S. M. Crooks H. N. Davies N. S. Reynard 《Regional Environmental Change》2014,14(3):1243-1255
This paper uses a sensitivity framework approach to look at the probabilistic impacts of climate change on 20-year return period flood peaks, by applying a set of typical response surfaces alongside the probabilistic UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) for 10 river-basin regions over Scotland. The first paper of the pair used the same approach for 10 river-basin regions over England and Wales. This paper develops the methodology for Scotland, by first enabling better estimation of the response type of Scottish catchments. Then, as for England and Wales, the potential range of impacts is shown for different types of catchment in each river-basin region in Scotland, and regional average impact ranges are estimated. Results show clear differences in impacts between catchments of different types and between regions. The Argyll and West Highland regions show the highest impacts, while the North-East Scotland region shows the lowest impacts. The overall ranges are generally smaller for Scotland than England and Wales. 相似文献
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Gabor Mezösi Burghard C. Meyer Wolfgang Loibl Christoph Aubrecht Peter Csorba Teodora Bata 《Regional Environmental Change》2013,13(4):797-811
The assessment of regional climate change impacts combined with the sensitivity of landscape functions by predictive modelling of hazardous landscape processes is a new fundamental field of research. In particular, this study investigates the effects of changing weather extremes on meso-regional-scale landscape vulnerability. Climatic-exposure parameter analysis was performed on a predicted climate change scenario. The exposure to climate change was analysed on the basis of the original data of the meso-scale IPCC A1B climate scenario from the REMO and ALADIN regional models for the periods of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, and the regional types of climate change impacts were calculated by using cluster analysis. Selected climate exposure parameters of the REMO and ALADIN models were analysed, in particular, for extreme events (days with precipitation greater than 30 mm, heat waves, dry periods, wet periods) and for daily temperature and precipitation. The landscape functions impacted by climate change are proxies for the main recent and future problematic processes in Hungary. Soil erosion caused by water, drought, soil erosion caused by wind, mass movement and flash floods were analysed for the time periods of 1961–1990, 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. Based on the sensitivity thresholds for the impact assessments, the landscape functional sensitivity indicators were interpreted, and an integrative summary of the five indicators was made, differentiating the regions facing only a few or multiple sensitivities. In Central Hungary, the increasing exposure and sensitivity to droughts will be a serious problem when following the REMO scenario. In several regions, most indicators will change the sensitivity threshold from a tolerable risk to an increased or very high risk. 相似文献
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Reyer Christopher P. O. Rigaud Kanta Kumari Fernandes Erick Hare William Serdeczny Olivia Schellnhuber Hans Joachim 《Regional Environmental Change》2017,17(6):1563-1568
Regional Environmental Change - 相似文献
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Catarina Vinagre Luís Narciso Marta Pimentel Henrique N. Cabral Maria J. Costa Rui Rosa 《Regional Environmental Change》2013,13(4):853-859
The Senegal sole, Solea senegalensis, is a species of flatfish that has several distinct cohorts of 0-group juveniles which use estuarine nurseries in summer and winter. The early cohort is more abundant and grows faster than the late cohort that stays in the nurseries during winter; however, climate warming may have an impact on the dynamics of this species’ juveniles. This study aimed to compare mortality, metabolic response and growth of S. senegalensis juveniles at different temperatures, reflecting present-day temperature (winter—12 °C; summer—24 °C) and future temperature (plus 3 °C) conditions, in estuarine nurseries in the southern European population. Mortality was low at 12 °C, being only 10 %, increasing to 30 % at 15 °C, 40 % at 24 °C and at 27 °C it hit 70 %. Metabolic rate increased steadily with increasing temperatures, yet it increased steeply from 24 to 27 °C. Thermal sensitivity was high for the temperature interval between 24 and 27 °C. Growth was very slow at 12 °C, at a rate of 0.03 mm day?1, increasing to 0.22 mm day?1 at 15 °C, and to 0.60 mm day?1, at 24 °C. However, at 27 °C growth rapidly declined to 0.12 mm day?1. Warming will be beneficial for the late cohort, resulting in a major increase in growth. However, the early cohort will not benefit from warming, due to high mortality and arrested growth, which clearly indicates that this species is under severe thermal stress at 27 °C. Thus, here we show, for the first time, that climate change may induce contrasting seasonal impacts on fish bio-ecology and physiology, namely in species with several cohorts over the course of the year. Phenotypic and/or genotypic plasticity may limit the impacts of climate change. 相似文献
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Ponce Roberto D. Fernández Francisco Stehr Alejandra Vásquez-Lavín Felipe Godoy-Faúndez Alex 《Regional Environmental Change》2017,17(6):1811-1821
Regional Environmental Change - Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to the impacts of climate change, specifically those related with expected changes in water availability.... 相似文献
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Giannis Lemesios Christos Giannakopoulos Christina Papadaskalopoulou Anna Karali Konstantinos V. Varotsos Konstantinos Moustakas Dimitris Malamis Maria Zachariou-Dodou Michael Petrakis Maria Loizidou 《Regional Environmental Change》2016,16(7):1915-1927
Tourism is a vital sector of Cyprus economy, attracting millions of tourists every year and providing economic growth and employment for the country. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts of projected climate change in the tourism industry in Cyprus (Republic of Cyprus) using both “Tourism Climate Index” (TCI) and “Beach Climate Index” (BCI). TCI refers to tourism activities mainly related to sightseeing, nature-based tourism, and religious tourism etc., while BCI represents beach tourism that constitutes 85 % of tourism activities in Cyprus. The projections of climate change impacts in tourism are performed for 2071–2100 period, using regional climate model output employing the A1B greenhouse gas emissions scenario. The 1961–1990 period is used as the control run to compare the respective results of the future projections. The significant warming anticipated in the distant future (increases in annual and summer temperatures close to 4 °C) will have adverse impacts on Cyprus tourism industry regarding sightseeing tourism. TCI results for the distant future period show only acceptable conditions for general tourism activities during summer in contrast with the good/very good conditions in the present climate. Conversely, this type of tourism seems to be benefited in shoulder seasons, i.e., during spring and autumn; TCI and hence tourist activities improve in the distant future in relation to the present climate. On the other hand, concerning beach tourism, future projections indicate that it will not be negatively affected by future climate change and any changes will be positive. 相似文献
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Hallett Chris S. Hobday Alistair J. Tweedley James R. Thompson Peter A. McMahon Kathryn Valesini Fiona J. 《Regional Environmental Change》2018,18(5):1357-1373
Regional Environmental Change - Regions with a Mediterranean climate are generally predicted to become warmer and drier with climate change. Estuaries in these regions are influenced by a broad... 相似文献
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I. Lorenzoni A. Jordan D. Favis-Mortlock D. Viner J. Hall 《Regional Environmental Change》2001,2(3):106-117
The weight of scientific evidence suggests that human activities are noticeably influencing the world's climate. However,
the effects of global climate change will be unevenly spread, due to local variations in vulnerability and adaptive capacity.
Using downscaled projections of future UK climates over the next 50 years, this paper investigates the impacts of, and possible
responses to, climate change in one small area in eastern England, selected as a test-bed for sustainable agriculture. It
shows that local agricultural systems are vulnerable to changes in the climate. At present, however, these considerations
have a limited effect on agricultural operations, which are mainly driven by short-term events and 'non-climate' policies,
such as agricultural price support. The capacity of agricultural systems to adapt successfully to climate change will be determined
by the ability of producers to integrate climate change into their planning strategies with a view to ultimately ensuring
sustainable agricultural practices in the long term.
Electronic Publication 相似文献
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Daniele Torriani Pierluigi Calanca Markus Lips Helmut Ammann Martin Beniston Jürg Fuhrer 《Regional Environmental Change》2007,7(4):209-221
A simple model of yield was used along with climate scenarios to assess the impact of climate change on grain maize productivity
and associated economic risk in Switzerland. In a first application, changes in the precipitation regime alone were shown
to affect the distribution of yield considerably, with shifts not only in the mean but also in the standard deviation and
the skewness. Production risk was found to respond more markedly to changes in the long-term mean than in the inter-annual
variability of seasonal precipitation amounts. In a further application, yield projections were generated with respect to
a full climate scenario, with the emission pathway as specified in the IPCC A2 scenario. Anticipation of the sowing date was
found to reduce the negative impact of climate change on yield stability, but was not sufficient to ensure average productivity
levels comparable to those observed at present. We argued that this was caused by the reduction in the duration of the growing
season, which had a stronger impact than suggested by previous studies. Assuming no change in price relations, the results
also revealed a strong increase in production risk with climate change, with more than a doubling in the probability of yield
falling short of a critical threshold as compared to today’s situation. 相似文献
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Central and Eastern European countries are a hotspot area when analyzing the impacts of climate change on agricultural and environmental sectors. This paper conducts a socio-economic evaluation of climate risks on crop production in Hungary, using panel data models. The region has a special location in the Carpathian basin, where the spatial distribution of precipitation varies highly from humid conditions in the western part to semiarid conditions in eastern Hungary. Under current conditions, crop systems are mainly rainfed, and water licences are massively underexploited. However, water stress projected by climate change scenarios could completely change this situation. In the near future (2021–2050), most of the crops examined could have better climatic conditions, while at the end of the century (2071–2100), lower yields are expected. Adaptation strategies must be based on an integrated evaluation which links economic and climatic aspects, and since the results show important differences in the case of individual systems, it is clear that the response has to be crop and region specific. 相似文献
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Global mitigative and adaptive efforts have not been able to effectively address the adverse impacts caused by climate change. Therefore, a direct solution is needed to address the significant resulting loss and damage (L&D). During the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change held in Doha in 2012, the issue of responding to L&D arising from climate change gained sudden traction and became one of the key issues that affected the outcome of the convention. In this paper, a study on the definition and connotations of L&D arising from climate change was conducted, together with an analysis of its relationship with related concepts, namely impacts, vulnerability, and risks. This led to the proposal of an L&D conceptual model that is more comprehensive, with the recognition of the need to address the issue through effective supplementation of existing mitigative and adaptive efforts. A systematic elaboration of an L&D response mechanism was made based on politics, law, and the market, leading to a preliminary presentation of a possible format for an L&D mechanism. Potential academic research directions for L&D were also proposed that could serve as references for the establishment of international and national L&D response mechanisms and related research. 相似文献
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Attention toward climate adaptation has been growing among governments over the past decade. In the European Union (EU) alone, nine countries have national plans for adaptation (with more in preparation), there are some 30 sub-national plans, and every Member State has policies to address adaptation. Given the recent attention given toward this subject a question that arises is: can climate change adaptation be considered a policy field? As a unit of analysis, policy fields are widely studied in the social sciences. However, the definition of policy fields such as environmental policy or agricultural policy is taken for granted. Oddly for such a common concept, very little attention is paid to what policy fields are in and of themselves or how they can be identified. Given these shortcomings, this article first attempts to fill this gap by theoretically defining what a policy field is by identifying and assigning their characteristics and dynamics. Based upon a literature review, it shows that policy fields are three-dimensional entities comprised of substantive authority, institutional order, and substantive expertise. The second task of this article is to apply this definition to adaptation policy activity in England and determine whether adaptation can be considered a policy field there. 相似文献
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This study aims to investigate the effect of the impact mechanism of climate change on the livestock production at small watershed level and county level with the Multi-level Model(MLM)in Qinghai Province.The result indicated that the gross livestock output value was greatly influenced by the climatic factors of the small watershed level.Higher temperature promoted also by the increase of precipitation,relative humidity and sunshine duration was found to be beneficial to the development of livestock production,except in some areas where temperature rise restrained the development of local livestock production to some degree when exceeding a certain level;besides,the impact of the socioeconomic factors on the livestock output value is obvious at the county level.The gross economic output measured with GDP has some inhibitory effects on the reinvestment of livestock production,while population growth promotes development of livestock production to some degree.The results not only provide scientific basis for the management of livestock production in Qinghai Province,but also provide reference for formulating the policies and adaptation measures targeted at climate change to promote the sustainable development of livestock production in other regions. 相似文献
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Sánchez-Arcilla Agustín Sierra Joan Pau Brown Sally Casas-Prat Mercè Nicholls Robert James Lionello Piero Conte Dario 《Regional Environmental Change》2016,16(8):2471-2484
Regional Environmental Change - The potential impact of climate change on port operations and infrastructures has received much less attention than the corresponding impact for beach systems.... 相似文献
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Subjective realities of climate change: how mental maps of impacts deliver socially sensible adaptation options 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
This paper discusses the perceived impacts of weather-related extreme events on different social groups in New Delhi, India. Using network statistics and scenario analysis with the Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping as part of a vulnerability analysis, the investigation provides quantitative and qualitative measures to compare impacts and adaptation strategies for different social groups. Impacts of rain events and heat waves are considered and differ across groups. Rain events affect the lower income classes more, while heat waves are the bigger burden for higher income classes. Overall, the strength of perceived impacts is larger for lower income classes, directly threatening their daily incomes. Urban managers have no immediate feedback on their livelihood, but often refer to health issues. The strongest effect on ameliorating burdens is investments in schemes to ease traffic, e.g., by improving the sewage and drainage infrastructure paired with other supply side measures to enable transport of goods for lower income classes during rain. During heat events, improving the water supply situation would reduce burden for all, while constant electricity supply is an effective means in reducing burden for the higher income classes in particular. Our analysis suggests that improvements in the water supply and sewage infrastructure would be the most suitable first step to initiate a well-planned adaptation strategy for all social groups. 相似文献
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Christos Giannakopoulos Effie Kostopoulou Konstantinos V. Varotsos Kostas Tziotziou Achilleas Plitharas 《Regional Environmental Change》2011,11(4):829-843
Climate changes in the Mediterranean region, related to a significant increase in temperature and changes in precipitation
patterns, can potentially affect local economies. Agriculture and tourism are undoubtedly the most important economic sources
for Greece and these may be more strongly affected by changing future climate conditions. Climate change and their various
negative impacts on human life are also detected in their environment; hence this study deals with implications, caused by
changing climate, in urban and forest areas. Potential changes for the mid-twenty-first century (2021–2050) are analysed using
a high-resolution regional climate model. This paper presents relevant climatic indices, indicative for potential implications
which may jeopardise vital economic/environmental sectors of the country. The results provide insights into particular regions
of the Greek territory that may undergo substantial impacts due to climate change. It is concluded that the duration of dry
days is expected to increase in most of the studied agricultural regions. Winter precipitation generally decreases, whereas
an increase in autumn precipitation is projected in most areas. Changing climate conditions associated with increased minimum
temperatures (approximately 1.3°C) and decreased winter precipitation by 15% on average suggest that the risk for forest fires
is intensified in the future. In urban areas, unpleasantly high temperatures during day and night will increase the feeling
of discomfort in the citizens, while flash floods events are expected to occur more frequently. Another impact of climate
change in urban regions is the increasing energy demand for cooling in summer. Finally, it was found that continental tourist
areas of the Greek mainland will more often face heatwave episodes. In coastal regions, increased temperatures especially
at night in combination with high levels of relative humidity can lead to conditions that are nothing less than uncomfortable
for foreigners and the local population. In general, projected changes associated with temperature have a higher degree of
confidence than those associated with precipitation. 相似文献