Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces I: England and Wales

The impacts of climate change on hydrology are an important focus of research around the world, but the use of large ensembles to drive impact models is not necessarily straightforward and has to be redone when new projections are released. Here, an alternative sensitivity framework approach is demonstrated, using a set of typical response surfaces alongside the probabilistic UK Climate Projections (UKCP09). These projections comprise sets of 10,000 changes in a number of variables, available for 10 river-basin regions covering England and Wales. Estimates of the potential range of impacts on 20-year return period flood peaks are presented for different types of catchment in each region. Regional average impact ranges are compared for a number of time horizons and emissions scenarios. Results show clear differences in impacts between catchments of different types and between regions. South-East England has the highest impacts with the greatest uncertainty range, while the Dee region has the lowest impacts and smallest uncertainty range. Regional differences are due to both spatial differences in projections and a differing regional balance in the number of catchments of each type. Ease of application of multiple projections is a clear advantage of this sensitivity-based approach to impact assessment, which could be extended to other regions and sectors.     

The relationship between socio-economic indicators and air pollution in England and Wales: implications for environmental justice

This paper investigates the distribution of three common air pollutants, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and fine particulates (PM₁₀), in England and Wales with respect to social class, ethnicity and population density. A multilevel model is used to demonstrate regional differences in the social distribution of pollution. The results show that, allowing for ethnicity and population density, there are different relationships between socio-economic status and exposure to air pollution within different regions in England and Wales. These differences suggest that national legislation introduced to reduce air pollution levels may give rise to environmental injustice, with geographical and social differences in the costs and benefits arising to the population due to such legislation. Received: 24 February 1999 / Accepted: 2 September 1999     

Power asymmetries and institutions: landscape conservation in central India

Understanding the importance of cross-sectoral implications of climate and socio-economic change in Scotland is essential for adaptation policy. This study explored the direct and indirect sectoral impacts of future change using the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform. There is great spatial diversity in projected impacts across Scotland, and increasing uncertainty in the direction of change of impacts from the national to regional scale associated with climate uncertainty. Further uncertainty associated with socio-economic change results in 6 out of 13 indicators (artificial surfaces, biodiversity vulnerability, forest area, land-use intensity, irrigation usage and land-use diversity) with robust directions of change at the national scale and only three (artificial surfaces, forest area and irrigation usage) that are robust across all regions of Scotland. Complex interactions between socio-economic scenario assumptions (e.g. food imports, population and GDP), climatic suitability and agricultural productivity and profitability lead to significant national and regional changes in the distribution and extent of land cover types, with resultant cross-sectoral interactions with water, forestry and biodiversity. Consequently, stakeholders characterised robust adaptation policy options, within the CLIMSAVE participatory process, as those beneficial to society (and the country) in all scenarios, irrespective of the direction of change of the impacts. The integration in CLIMSAVE of a participatory scenario development process and an integrated participatory modelling framework has allowed the exploration of future uncertainty in a structured approach and better represented the importance of qualitative information and the social and institutional contexts within adaptation research.     

Rethinking assessment of drought impacts: a systemic approach towards sustainability

Although impacting primarily economic sectors, droughts may also initiate dynamic mechanisms that have socio-environmental consequences on sustainability of the impacted areas. To date, most research has dealt with the economic impacts of droughts, with minimal attention being paid to the dynamics of damaging mechanisms associated with socio-environmental impacts. Using a systemic approach, this paper develops a method of identifying the dynamic structures responsible for the consequences of drought. Considering the impacts of recent droughts in Iran, the paper presents a conceptual model, underpinned by a Limits to Growth archetype to explain how different drought impacts are triggered. Moreover, adopting the Viability Loops concept, a range of strategies and indices are suggested as monitoring tools to sustain socio-economic life in a drought-impacted area. The provinces of Hamadan (with water abundance), and Yazd and Isfahan (with water scarcity) in Iran have been selected to illustrate the proposed methodology. Results show a higher vulnerability to droughts in the water-rich region due to dependence on water abundance as opposed to the water-poor regions, which are well adapted to water scarcity conditions.     

Quantifying the erosion processes and land-uses which dominate fine sediment supply to Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland, Australia

In this paper, the contributions from the three major erosion sources in the catchments of Moreton Bay are quantified, specifically for the <10 microm sediment size class. The erosion sources are classified as (i) sheet erosion from cultivated land, (ii) sheet erosion from uncultivated land, and (iii) subsoil erosion from gullies and channels. The catchments were the Brisbane and Logan rivers as well as the coastal catchments. A GIS based analysis of erosion risk was used to define areas of high erosion potential in each of the erosion source types. Radionuclide concentrations of 137Cs and 226Ra were measured on the <10 microm fraction of eroding soils from these areas and then compared to concentrations on the same size fraction on deposited sediments within the rivers. A mixing model was then used to calculate the contributions from the different sources to the sediments. The contributions in the Brisbane and Logan catchments were found to be subsoil erosion (approximately 66 +/- 10%); sheet erosion from cultivated lands 33 +/- 10% and sheet erosion of uncultivated land 1 +/- 10%. Surface and subsoil erosion contributions from the coastal catchments were found to be variable.     

Assessment of climate change vulnerability of tourism in Hungary

This paper applies vulnerability assessment methodology to assess the comparative vulnerability of different tourism supply types by region in Hungary. The steps of the methodology include (1) definition of tourism supply typology, (2) identifying exposure indicators, (3) identifying sensitivity indicators, (4) identification of adaptive capacity indicators and (5) developing a vulnerability map. It is clear that climate change has potential negative effects on tourism in Hungary, but the spatial distribution, as well as the sub-sectoral (by tourism supply types) differences of these impacts is almost unknown. Most research papers dealing with the vulnerability of tourism mainly focus on a specific tourism type, whereas this article aims to address all of them from a regional point of view. The key results presented in this paper include the vulnerability map of the country showing the relative vulnerability of different tourism supply types and detailed analysis investigating the possible causes and driving factors. We have categorized tourism regions based on the five most vulnerable tourism supply types. The most significant of them all turned out to be outdoor event-based tourism, being the most vulnerable in the two southern regions, since the expected impacts of climate change are foreseen to be the most significant in these areas.     

Australian approaches to coastal vulnerability assessment

The Australian coastline is one of the longest and most diverse of any in the world, and Australian researchers have developed preliminary models of the behaviour of major coastal systems such as beaches and reefs. The Australian population is particularly focused along the coastline, especially in metropolitan centres; however, the population of regional centres along the coast is increasing steadily in response to a phenomenon termed seachange. Coastal systems are increasingly threatened by potential impacts as a result of climate change, as indicated by the successive assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Although Australia played a central role in applying a common methodology (CM), developed from IPCC guidelines in the 1990s, and in devising alternative approaches, which were initially trialled at nine sites on the Australian coast, there has not been a nationally co-ordinated approach to assessing the coastal vulnerability of Australia, and such an approach is only emerging now. Instead, there have been a series of different approaches adopted to look at the different parts of the Australian coast, including wetland mapping in northern Australia; geomorphic unit mapping in South Australia; storm surge vulnerability modelling in Queensland; probabilistic approaches to beach erosion in New South Wales; indicative mapping of potential coastal retreat in Tasmania. Additionally, there have been methods proposed by insurers and coastal engineers to meet their requirements. Since 2005, the Australian government has once again seen the need for a national coastal vulnerability assessment, and a series of studies are planned or under way to achieve the aims of a National Climate Change Adaptation Framework.     

Background exposure rates of terrestrial wildlife in England and Wales

It has been suggested that, when assessing radiation impacts on non-human biota, estimated dose rates due to anthropogenically released radionuclides should be put in context by comparison to dose rates from natural background radiation. In order to make these comparisons, we need data on the activity concentrations of naturally occurring radionuclides in environmental media and organisms of interest. This paper presents the results of a study to determine the exposure of terrestrial organisms in England and Wales to naturally occurring radionuclides, specifically (40)K, (238)U series and (232)Th series radionuclides. Whole-body activity concentrations for the reference animals and plants (RAPs) as proposed by the ICRP have been collated from literature review, data archives and a targeted sampling campaign. Data specifically for the proposed RAP are sparse. Soil activity concentrations have been derived from an extensive geochemical survey of the UK. Unweighted and weighted absorbed dose rates were estimated using the ERICA Tool. Mean total weighted whole-body absorbed dose rates estimated for the selected terrestrial organisms was in the range 6.9 x 10(-2) to 6.1 x 10(-1) microGy h(-1).     

Potential responses of terrestrial biodiversity in Southern Africa to anthropogenic climate change

Key studies supported by species-level data collection have provided early indications of the potential implications of unmitigated change for the ecosystems and biodiversity of southern Africa. These suggest a significant threat to biodiversity, both from changing bioclimatic suitability and changing atmospheric CO₂ level that seems to affect the competitive balance between woody and herbaceous plants in the dominant savanna biome of this region. Modeling efforts suggest significant implications of unmitigated climate change for this region, but assumptions underpinning methods such as bioclimatic modeling must be recognized, some of which might lead to over estimates of the rate and extent of the potential impacts. General trends and level of coincidence between various types of studies do support a high degree of concern for a substantial portion of southern African biodiversity under unmitigated climate-change scenarios. The most significant changes in ecosystem structure (both increases and decreases in woody plant cover), and associated faunal diversity changes, are projected in the dominant savanna vegetation type in this region, while the most significant biodiversity loss is projected for the winter rainfall region. Follow-up work to detect early signs of climate change identify regions of high- and low-potential impacts, and experimental work to test some important hypotheses relating to the future evolution of climate-change impacts across the region are very few and urgently required.     

The challenge of validating vulnerability estimates: the option of media content analysis for identifying drought-related crises

For an integrated assessment of the vulnerability of societies to drought it is necessary to set the benchmark at a level where the impacts of droughts lead to a state of affairs that departs from normal conditions, i.e. a crisis event. This article aims to improve the understanding of drought-related crisis events on the basis of a twofold media content analysis. This approach enables us to test when increased vulnerability in fact leads to a crisis situation and offers an improved understanding of the intensity and the extent of crisis events. To this end, we first outline our perspective on crisis and give an overview on existing approaches to identify crisis events. We then outline our two-step approach of media content analysis aimed at developing a crisis data set for the case study regions Andhra Pradesh (India), Southern Portugal and the Volga region (Russia). Using the Factiva news database and information by regional newspapers, a crisis data set is generated enabling us to define the occurrence and extent of drought-related crisis events in the case study regions. Moreover, based on attributes of drought impacts reported by news sources, we categorize the extensiveness of a specific drought. As a key result, our findings suggest that Southern Portugal, the case study region which is expected to be less susceptible to drought events than the other case study regions, faced the most extended crisis events.     

金沙江虎跳峡-旭龙河段水电建设景观多样性影响评价

金沙江中游水电建设因其对流域生物多样性的影响受到社会各界广泛关注。应用景观生态学方法,选择淹没区面积、斑块数、景观多样性、均匀性、聚集度、蔓延度、形状指数、分维数等指数,构建了由10个一级指标、14个二级指标组成的景观多样性影响评价指标体系,对金沙江“虎跳峡 旭龙河”段适宜水电建设的龙盘、塔城和其宗3个坝址、5套建设方案淹没区景观层次生物多样性的影响进行了比较研究。结果显示,江段往下游方向,景观多样性、均匀性、连通性逐渐降低、破碎化程度加剧;各方案对陆地生物多样性保护价值的影响：其宗下坝＞其宗上坝＞塔城坝＞龙盘高坝＞龙盘低坝。研究结果为深入评价金沙江中游水利水电开发的生物多样性影响提供了借鉴和基础。〖     

Determination of the optimal land use allocation pattern in Nowshahr County,Northern Iran

Regional models of land use change are evaluated as a way of identifying land use pattern based on recent quantitative and probabilistic approaches. Differentiation between models in this area is the result of the approach to the concept of land use and type of indicators used in the modeling process. Since the determination of the optima land use pattern, due to the different uses of land based on the availability of regional capabilities and spatial difference in land use, depends on an integrated model, there must be a model that can assess the existing conditions of the region and present reasonable models of land use according to regional capacities and potentials. In this research, we developed a model to present the Optimal Land Use Allocation Pattern (OLUAP) for maximizing the advantages of change and determining the methods of influencing land use change priorities. This model uses spatial models and analysis, moderates the cost-benefit function, and calculates the allocation priorities of various areas based on regional conditions. The model results show that a wide scope of Nowshahr area is allocated to natural and agricultural uses. At the same time, a limited area has been assigned to urban and industrial uses. In addition, it shows that northern strip of the region due to higher accessibility of services and infrastructures is more suited than other regions to urban and industrial areas, and these two uses have first and second priority, respectively. Besides, according to the man-made environment and the special environmental conditions, the model allocates the central lowlands and southern parts sporadically to agricultural and natural areas as first and second priorities. Since the model is spatial optimization, the suggestions of the model show the OLUAP. Therefore, one can see the optimal condition for each plot and compare it with the existing land use.     

Probabilistic indicators of atmospheric transport for regional monitoring and emergency preparedness systems

In this paper, following a methodology developed within the "Arctic Risk" Project of the Nordic Arctic Research Programme, several probabilistic indicators to evaluate the risk site possible impact on the geographical regions, territories, countries, counties, cities, etc., due to atmospheric transport from the risk site region were suggested. These indicators-maximum possible impact zone, maximum reaching distance, and typical transport time-were constructed by applying statistical methods and using a dataset of isentropic trajectories originated over the selected nuclear risk site (Ignalina nuclear power plant, Lithuania) during 1991-1996. For this site, the areas enclosed by isolines of the maximum possible impact zone and maximum reaching distance indicators are equal to 42 x 10(4) and 703 x 10(4) km(2), respectively. The maximum possible impact zone's boundaries are more extended in the southeast sector from the site and include, in particular, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, and several western regions of Russia. The maximum reaching distance's boundaries are twice more extended in the eastern direction from the site (reaching the Caspian Sea) compared with the western direction. The typical transport time to reach the southern territories of Sweden and Finland, northern regions of Ukraine, and northeast of Poland is 1 day. During this time, the atmospheric transport could typically occur over the Baltic States, Belarus, and western border regions of Russia, and central aquatoria of the Baltic Sea. Detailed analysis of temporal patterns for these indicators showed importance of the seasonal variability.     

The Volta Lake and Declining Rainfall and Streamflows in the Volta River Basin

This paper looks at the rainfall and streamflow patterns over two distinct time periods, i.e., 1950–1970 and 1971–1991 within the two most prominent catchments in the Volta river system – White Volta and the Oti basins. The first period (1950–1970) represents relatively vegetated catchments and low population whilst the latter (1971–1990) represents intense land use practices resulting from increased population that have severely degraded the environment. These two catchments are among the most significant contributors to the Volta lake. The Volta lake, which was formed between 1962 and 1966 in Ghana and created primarily for hydroelectric power generation, will probably be one of the greatest man-made lakes for a long time. It produces 912MW of electricity at its maximum operating capacity. Recently, there have been declines in the lake levels resulting most probably from inadequate rainfall and/or runoff from the river catchments that feed the lake. Comparisons of runoffs for the two time periods show reductions in mean streamflows of 32.5% at Saboba on the Oti and 23.1% at Nawuni on the White Volta.     

Regional integration and local change: road paving, community connectivity, and social–ecological resilience in a tri-national frontier, southwestern Amazonia

Initiatives for global economic integration increasingly prioritize new infrastructure in relatively remote regions. Such regions have relatively intact ecosystems and provide valuable ecosystem services, which has stimulated debates over the wisdom of new infrastructure. Most prior research on infrastructure impacts highlights economic benefits, ecological damage, or social conflicts. We suggest a more integrative approach to regional integration by appropriating the concepts of connectivity from transport geography and social?Cecological resilience from systems ecology. Connectivity offers a means of observing the degree of integration between locations, and social?Cecological resilience provides a framework to simultaneously consider multiple consequences of regional integration. Together, they offer a spatial analysis of resilience that considers multiple dimensions of infrastructure impacts. Our study case is the southwestern Amazon, a highly biodiverse region which is experiencing integration via paving of the Inter-Oceanic Highway. Specifically, we focus on the ??MAP?? region, a tri-national frontier where Bolivia, Brazil, and Peru meet and which differs in the extent of highway paving. We draw on a tri-national survey of more than 100 resource-dependent rural communities across the MAP frontier and employ indicators for multiple dimensions of connectivity and social?Cecological resilience. We pursue a comparative analysis among regions and subregions with differing degrees of community connectivity to markets in order to evaluate their social?Cecological resilience. The findings indicate that connectivity and resilience have a multifaceted relationship, such that greater community connectivity corresponds to greater resilience in some respects but not others. We conclude by noting how our findings integrate those from heretofore largely disparate literatures on infrastructure. The integration of transport geography with resilience thought thus stands to advance the study of infrastructure impacts.     

Innovative solutions for averting a potential resource crisis—the case of one-person households in England and Wales

This paper seeks to test the hypothesis that growth in one-person households will increase the domestic consumption of energy, land and household goods in England and Wales. It concludes that if current consumer behaviour of one-person households persists there will be a significant increase in the consumption of all three resources in the future. However, it argues that that many opportunities exist in England and Wales for tackling this problem. For example the new housing programme, increasing ability amongst one-person households to afford “green alternatives” and the search amongst some one-person households for alternative lifestyles (which could be potentially more resource efficient). The paper suggests that providing one-person households with opportunities to live in more resource efficient housing and adopt pro-environmental behaviour could significantly reduce their future environmental impact. Various design, fiscal and awareness-raising solutions are presented in the paper and their viability is assessed. These include ecological homes, collective housing forms, occupancy tax, relocation packages, educational programmes and targeted advertising campaigns. The paper proposes that using a combination of these more innovative solutions to the problem could significantly reduce the future environmental impact of one-person households.     

Can timber and water resources be sustainably co-developed in south-eastern New South Wales, Australia?

In the south-east of New South Wales, Australia, forested catchments are largely relied upon to provide high-quality surface water at low cost to small regional communities. The forests in question are used for multiple purposes including timber production, which can result in conflicts and debate regarding the sustainability of timber and water resources being co-developed. A case study is examined where a logging operation will occur on 3.5% of the Myrtle Creek catchment that is used to supply water to the small township of Wyndham. Modelling based on the water yield response of eucalypt forests to disturbance predicts that during the first four years post-harvest, total streamflows will be increased under the ‘2010 logging’ scenario, with a maximum increase of 2.6% within the first two years. Streamflows will then likely decrease compared to the ‘no logging’ scenario and will continue to do so until regrowth reaches 28 years of age with a maximum 1.4% decrease predicted. Streamflows under both scenarios will continue to increase over time as water yield has been suppressed by forest regeneration following extensive wildfires and logging that occurred from the 1960s to 1980s. It is concluded that timber harvesting, if limited spatially and temporally, can occur without compromising catchment values and may contribute to improved forest heterogeneity and resilience. However, in the face of a changing climate and an increased likelihood of catastrophic high intensity wildfires, the future sustainability of undercapitalised small town water supplies reliant on a single water source is questionable.     

工业企业类型对工业用地利用效率的影响研究——基于企业类型宏观视角的分类

针对近年来企业变化趋势和新时代下对企业改革新要求,基于宏观视角对企业类型进行分类,结合2008～2016年30个省份面板数据,通过固定效应模型探讨其对工业用地利用效率的影响机制和方向。研究结果表明:资本类型中,地区外资及港澳台工业企业数量占比的提高在5%和1%的显著性水平上会对工业用地利用效率产生负向作用;产权类型中,地区国有及国有控股工业企业数量占比的提高在5%和1%的显著性水平上会对工业用地利用效率产生负向影响;规模类型中,地区大中型工业企业数量占比的提高在1%的显著性水平上会对工业用地利用效率产生负向影响;技术类型中,高技术产业企业数量占比的提高在5%显著性水平上会对工业用地利用效率产生正向影响。因此,工业企业类型不同将对工业用地利用效率产生显著影响,未来应注重工业企业内部改革和转变。     

Probabilistic biokinetic modelling of radiocaesium uptake in Arctic seal species: verification of modelled data with empirical observations

The necessity to provide information about radionuclide concentrations in Arctic marine species has been heightened in recent years due to a number of accidents in Arctic regions involving nuclear vessels and the presence of a large number of potential radioactive contamination sources. The provision for such information is largely dependent on the use of radionuclide uptake and transfer models. The uptake of radionuclides in Arctic seal species in this study has been modelled using a probabilistic biokinetic approach. In this paper, model results are compared with empirical data from relevant samples taken within the Arctic region. Results indicate that the model performs well when estimating concentrations of (137)Cs in two seal species for both median values and reproduction of the distribution of data values, but not as well for a third seal species. Likely factors affecting the results are the probability density functions used for the input parameters.     

Exploring adaptation choices for grapevine regions in Spain

Our aim was to explore the adaptation choices to climate change in the grapevine regions of Spain from two points of view. First, what are the main reasons for concern? Second, how large is the adaptation effort in each region? We address the first question by measuring sensitivity to climate change with Huglin, Cold Night and Dryness Indices over the entire territory, providing information on the adaptation type (e.g. varieties, zoning, water allocation). We then estimate probabilistic projections across scenario, zone and sensitivity indices in the 56 Protected Designation of Origin areas to inform on the magnitude of the adaptation effort. Second, we propose an adaptation effort measure that is framed according to the local environmental context. Results suggest that most areas urgently need an adaptation plan due to the deterioration of production and quality indices as a result of climate change. Potential opportunities in many climate regions might be limited by current policy. The production objectives of quality and quantity trade-offs will probably need to be revised by analysing the sustainability of grapevine production.