Climate proofing the Zuidplaspolder: a guiding model approach to climate adaptation

Climate change will have an impact on various sectors, such as housing, infrastructure, recreation and agriculture. Climate change may change spatial demands. For example, rising temperatures will increase the need for recreation areas, and areas could be assigned for water storage. There is a growing sense that, especially at the local scale, spatial planning has a key role in addressing the causes and impacts of climate change. This paper promotes an approach to help translate information on climate change impacts into a guiding model for adaptive spatial planning. We describe how guiding models can be used in designing integrated adaptation strategies. The concept of guiding models has been developed in the 1990s by Tjallingii to translate the principles of integrated water management in urban planning. We have integrated information about the present and future climate change and set up a climate adaptation guiding model approach. Making use of climate adaptation guiding models, spatial planners should be able to better cope with complexities of climate change impacts and be able to translate these to implications for spatial planning. The climate adaptation guiding model approach was first applied in the Zuidplaspolder case study, one of the first major attempts in the Netherlands to develop and implement an integrated adaptation strategy. This paper demonstrates how the construction of climate adaptation guiding models requires a participatory approach and how the use of climate adaptation guiding models can contribute to the information needs of spatial planners at the local scale, leading to an increasing sense of urgency and integrated adaptation planning process.     

Climate capacity:the measurement for adaptation to climate change

This article proposed the concept of"climate capacity"as a way of measuring human’s adaptiveness to climate change.This article also focused on the related concepts like ecological carrying capacity,water resources carrying capacity,land carrying capacity as well as population carrying capacity.The concept of climate capacity was articulated against a background of global climate and environmental change.Essentially,China’s efforts to adapt to climate change was a matter of improving climate capacity,which is the ecosystem as well as the frequency,the intensity and the scale of human’s social activities that the climatic resources of a particular geographic area were supposed to support.The climate capacity has two components.One is the natural climate capacity,which includes temperature,sunlight,precipitation,extreme climatic events,etc.The other is the derived climate capacity,which includes water resources,land resources,ecological systems,climatic risks,etc.The climate capacity can be developed or be transferred between regions by taking engineering,technology or regime-based adaptive measures.However,these adaptive measures must be implemented under the principle of economic rationalism,ecological integrity,climate protection,and social justice.It is expected that by combining the climate capacity and its threshold value with the assessment of climate change risks,we are able to predict the optimal population carrying capacity and the scale of socioeconomic development,and furthermore,provide policy support for the socioeconomic development strategy and adaptive planning.In the regions with high climate capacity,there is a symbiotic relationship between adaptation and socioeconomic development.But,in the regions with limited climate capacity,irrational development may further damage the environment.Taking the Yangtze River delta,a region with high climate capacity,and a region of Ningxia,a region with limited climate capacity,as illustrative examples,the authors of this article analyzed the policy implications of climate capacity and further made suggestions on the problems of capacitylimited adaptation and development-driven adaptation.This article argued that the concept of climate capacity can not only be used as an analytical instrument of climate change economics,but also it can provide research support for planning regional adaptation and development with climate change impact and risk assessments.     

Autonomous adaptation to riverine flooding in Satkhira District,Bangladesh: implications for adaptation planning

Systematic understanding of adaptation measures utilised by households in developing countries is needed to identify the constraints they face, and the external interventions or adaptation planning needed to overcome them. Understanding of autonomous household adaptation patterns remains underdeveloped. In particular, little is known regarding whether households are implementing incremental or transformational adaptation measures as well as the implications of this for adaptation planning. We demonstrate the suitability of the risk hazard approach for understanding autonomous household adaptation patterns and discuss the implications for planned adaptation. To achieve this, we use an in-depth village case study from an area of Bangladesh particularly vulnerable to climate change, using qualitative semi-structured household interviews as primary material. We find that the risk hazard approach is ideal for exploring autonomous adaptations because of its capacity for understanding how households respond to livelihood risk, and what resources are required for it to be most effective. However, the risk hazard approach overlooks equity and fairness considerations need to be integrated due to the insufficient emphasis on these concerns.

     

中国生物多样性保护适应气候变化的对策

基于气候变化对生物多样性影响的总结分析,初步提出了我国生物多样性保护适应气候变化的对策。气候变化对生物物候、分布、迁移活动、群落结构、栖息地质量、生态系统和景观多样性都产生了一定影响,未来将产生更深刻的影响。我国生物多样性保护适应气候变化需要从物种有效保护、自然保护区规划与管理、灾害防御等方面进行。     

Climate-proof planning for flood-prone areas: assessing the adaptive capacity of planning institutions in the Netherlands

It is generally acknowledged that adapting low-lying, flood-prone deltas to the projected impacts of climate change is of great importance. Deltas are densely populated and often subject to high risk. Climate-proof planning is, however, not only a new but also a highly complex task that poses problems for existing institutional and administrative structures, which are the product of times in which climate issues were of little importance. This paper assesses the capacity of the historically grown Dutch planning institutions to promote climate-proof planning for flood-prone areas. The Adaptive Capacity Wheel provides the methodological framework. The analysis focuses on two planning projects in the west of the Netherlands: the Zuidplas Polder project at the regional level and the Westergouwe project at the local level. It is shown that the planning institutions involved in these projects enable climate-proof planning, but to a limited extent. They face five institutional weaknesses that may cause risks on the long term. To climate-proof urban developments in flood-prone areas, it is necessary to break through the strong path–dependent development of planning institutions and to build in more flexibility in existing rules and procedures.     

Toward legitimate governance strategies for climate adaptation in the Netherlands: combining insights from a legal,planning, and network perspective

In general, the issue of climate change is characterized by uncertainty, complexity, and multifacetedness. In the Netherlands, climate change is in above highly controversial. These characteristics make it difficult to realize adaptation measures that are perceived as legitimate. In this article, we analyze the main difficulties and dilemmas with regard to the issue of legitimacy in the context of climate adaptation. We conceptualize legitimacy from a legal, a planning, and a network perspective and show how the concept of legitimacy evolves within these three perspectives. From a legal perspective, the focus is on the issues of good governance. From a planning perspective, the focus is on the flexibility, learning, and governance capacity. From a network perspective, issues of dialogue, involvement, and support are important. These perspectives bring in different criteria, which are not easy compatible. We describe and illustrate these legitimacy challenges using an in-depth study of the Dutch IJsseldelta Zuid case. From our case study, we conclude that, from a legitimacy perspective, the often acclaimed necessity to be adaptive and flexible is quite problematic. The same holds true for the plea to mainstream adaptation into other policy domains. In our case study, these strategies give rise to serious challenges in relation to good governance and consensus—two indispensable cornerstones of legitimacy.     

适应气候变化技术体系的集成创新机制

适应是应对气候变化的主要方式之一,适应技术体系的集成创新是适应气候变化行动的关键内容。在不同层面建立适应气候变化技术的集成创新机制,构建不同部门或区域适应气候变化技术的集成创新体系是我国实现有效应对气候变化的必要途径。本文解析了"适应气候变化技术体系的集成创新"的内涵,即不同适应主体和部门对各种适应技术进行选择、优化、配置,相互之间以最合理的结构形式结合在一起,形成一个由适宜要素组成的、优势互补的、匹配的有机体系,从而使适应技术体系的整体功能发生质变的一种自主创新过程。集成创新可以使适应气候变化不同主体或部门的资源、技术、能力等实现重新组合并且优化,进而增强适应气候变化的效果。提出了我国适应气候变化技术体系集成创新机制,包括:适应气候变化技术的整合集成机制、适应气候变化技术的科技创新机制、适应气候变化主体的组织机制、适应气候变化部门的协同合作机制,以及适应气候变化的资金机制。整合是适应气候变化技术实现集成的重要手段,科技创新是适应技术创新研发的主体力量,组织机制是实现集成创新的体制基础,协同是实现适应技术集成创新的关键保障,资金机制是集成创新的物质基础。最后指出应对气候变化的适应技术体系需要充分发挥集成创新的力量,从不同层面的适应主体的组织机制开始,充分整合适应气候变化技术体系,发挥不同适应部门的协同机制,建立完善的国家适应气候变化科技创新机制,同时合理利用资金机制,从而建立完善的适应气候变化技术的集成创新机制。     

Costs and benefits of adapting spatial planning to climate change: lessons learned from a large-scale urban development project in the Netherlands

Climate change increases the vulnerability of low-lying coastal areas. Careful spatial planning can reduce this vulnerability, provided that decision-makers have insight into the costs and benefits of adaptation options. This paper addresses the question which adaptation options are suitable, from an economic perspective, to adapt spatial planning to climate change at a regional scale. We apply social cost–benefit analysis to assess the net benefits of adaptation options that deal with the impacts of climate change-induced extreme events. From the methods applied and results obtained, we also aim at learning lessons for assessing climate adaptation options. The case study area, the Zuidplaspolder, is a large-scale urban development project in the Netherlands. The costs as well as the primary and secondary benefits of adaptation options relating to spatial planning (e.g. flood-proof housing and adjusted infrastructure) are identified and where possible quantified. Our results show that three adaptation options are not efficient investments, as the investment costs exceed the benefits of avoided damages. When we focus on ‘climate proofing’ the total area of the Zuidplaspolder, when the costs and benefits of all the presented adaptation options are considered together, the total package has a positive net present value. The study shows that it is possible to anticipate climate change impacts and assess the costs and benefits of adjusting spatial planning. We have learned that scenario studies provide a useful tool but that decision-making under climate change uncertainty also requires insight into the probabilities of occurrence of weather extremes in the future.     

An integrated decision-support process for adaptation planning: climate change as impetus for scenario planning in an agricultural region of Canada

The amount of information required to adapt to climate change is vast: downscaled climate projections, information on environmental impact, sectoral performance, external drivers, regional strategies, policies and practices. It can be argued that most of this information is accessible at the community/regional level, and thus, the important challenges to adaptation are not information gaps, but constraints created by fragmented planning decisions and a sector-by-sector basis for financial and human resource allocations. To strategically address this through adaptation planning, we developed and tested a place-based decision-making framework that creates an integrated platform for considering regional and global sectoral drivers in Eastern Ontario, Canada. Using available socioeconomic and biophysical information from regional authorities, alternative future scenarios were used to describe the range of socioeconomic futures and their vulnerabilities to climate change. We found that: (1) integration of diverse sets of available data (rather than narrowly focused sectoral assessments) helped identify shared common objectives (maximizing the long-term environmental, economic, social well-being within the region), (2) a high degree of congruence existed as the key drivers of change, irrespective of sector, (3) exploring the future scenarios highlighted shared regional priorities and helped identify adaptation priorities requiring more integrated regional planning.     

Climate adaptation of interconnected infrastructures: a framework for supporting governance

Infrastructures are critical for human society, but vulnerable to climate change. The current body of research on infrastructure adaptation does not adequately account for the interconnectedness of infrastructures, both internally and with one another. We take a step toward addressing this gap through the introduction of a framework for infrastructure adaptation that conceptualizes infrastructures as complex socio-technical “systems of systems” embedded in a changing natural environment. We demonstrate the use of this framework by structuring potential climate change impacts and identifying adaptation options for a preliminary set of cases—road, electricity and drinking water infrastructures. By helping to clarify the relationships between impacts at different levels, we find that the framework facilitates the identification of key nodes in the web of possible impacts and helps in the identification of particularly nocuous weather conditions. We also explore how the framework may be applied more comprehensively to facilitate adaptation governance. We suggest that it may help to ensure that the mental models of stakeholders and the quantitative models of researchers incorporate the essential aspects of interacting climate and infrastructure systems. Further research is necessary to test the framework in these contexts and to determine when and where its application may be most beneficial.     

我国珍稀濒危物种适应气候变化的对策探讨

基于气候变化下部分珍稀濒危物种脆弱性分析,初步提出了适应对策,探讨了部分物种适应措施。气候变化下,珍稀濒危物种脆弱性表现在物种分布范围减少、破碎化和失去原分布范围、丰富度下降、种群数量减少、物种灭绝、栖息地退化或消失等。珍稀濒危物种适应气候变化需要分析物种自然适应机制,加强就地保护,增加种群数量,开展迁地和遗传保护,减少其它干扰,保护和恢复栖息地,建立自然保护区适应对策等。每个物种需要分析目前濒危程度和气候变化下的脆弱性来提出适应对策。     

The Vandaclim Simulation Model: A Training Tool for Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment

This paper describes a training course on climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment. The course, developed in partnership with the CC:TRAIN Programme of the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR), aims to enhance the capacity of developing countries to make their national communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The paper focuses on a simulation model called VANDACLIM, which was developed as a pedagogical tool to facilitate the training. Four sectors are modelled within VANDACLIM (agriculture, public health, water resources, and coastal zone) and are used as a basis for helping to conduct an integrated, multi-sectoral assessment for the imaginary, sub-tropical country of Vanda. The learning-by-doing approach, encapsulated in the application of VANDACLIM to complete a mini-assessment for Vanda, proved to be very successful when trialled at a training workshop in Zimbabwe. Both the training course and VANDACLIM have been adapted subsequently for application in small island states and plans are underway for extension to other environments and regions of the world.     

Climate change adaptation and the African fisheries: evidence from the UNFCCC National Communications

Climate change can cause significant (un)foreseen changes in the fisheries sector. However, adaptation has the potential to moderate some of the impacts. This paper explores the challenges faced by both freshwater and marine fisheries sector in addressing climate change and teases out intervention measures from 21 African countries. The paper uses document analysis and draws selected analysis parameters from the grounded theory. The data are obtained from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change National Communication reports. Among the key adaptation measures emerging from the analysis are: fish breeding, integrated coastal management, putting in place appropriate policies, water and flood management as well as research and development. The study concludes that adaptation in the African fisheries sector should be prioritised, an aspect that could also apply elsewhere in the world to enhance food security.     

Climate adaptation of food value chains: the implications of varying consumer acceptance

Despite there being considerable research and knowledge surrounding the risks of climate change on agricultural productivity, fewer studies have examined risks from a whole-of-chain perspective (i.e. from producer to consumer) and the perceptions of consumers about the climate adaptation strategies of food businesses. This paper presents the findings of a survey of 1532 Australian consumers and how they might respond to a food company’s climate adaptation strategy. Three respondent archetypes, ‘Eco-warriors’ (n = 557), ‘Undecideds’ (n = 600) and ‘Abdicators’ (n = 375), were identified based on their perceptions of risks associated with climate change and their attitudes towards climate adaptation. Further analysis was carried out to understand how each group of respondents would respond to adaptation strategies employed by food companies. Based on the findings of this study, two main challenges are presented for food value chains: (1) translating consumer needs and preferences to niche opportunities arising from adaptation and (2) understanding how best to communicate adaptation benefits based on varying attitudes and information needs. By addressing these challenges, synergies between adaptation goals and competitive strategies in food value chains may be achieved.     

国土空间规划对重点开发区域的经济增长效应研究——武汉城市圈规划的经验证据

"多规融合"的国土空间规划兼具区域发展规划和环境规制的功能,是经济新常态下国家平衡经济增长和环境保护的有力政策工具,而各地普遍实施的国土空间规划能否促进重点开发区域的经济增长,有待实证检验。以武汉城市圈空间规划为例,本文利用2002-2012年间湖北省74个县(市、市辖区)域面板数据,采用双重差分倾向得分匹配方法研究国土空间规划对重点开发区域经济增长的影响。实证结果表明:第一,国土空间规划显著地促进了重点开发区域经济的增长,但对区域内不同行政级别的市辖区和县(市)的经济增长速度具有不同的推动作用,具体表现为分别提高市辖区和县(市)级GDP增长率2.4和1.1个百分点,这一结论在对研究方法的匹配技术进行稳健性检验后依然成立。第二,对国土空间规划推动重点开发区域经济增长实现机制的进一步分析表明,武汉城市圈空间规划实施后,由于区域经济一体化进程的加快和地区之间经济联系的加强,武汉作为区域经济增长极,对相邻市、县的经济溢出效应更加明显,从而推动相邻区域的经济增长。上述研究结论对目前广泛实施的国土空间规划具有重要的政策含义,鉴于国土空间规划推动市辖区经济增长的速度要明显快于县或县级市,今后规划政策的调整要在保持重点开发区域整体经济不断提升的同时兼顾地区间的协调发展,避免空间规划的实施导致内部区域发展差距拉大;在重点开发区域经济得到发展的同时,要逐渐形成其规模集聚效应,为农产品主产区和生态功能区的人口转移提供基础,进而带动整个国土空间的可持续发展。