Two thresholds determine climatic control of forest fire size in Europe and northern Africa

Fire weather indices predict fire extent from meteorological conditions assuming a monotonic function; this approach is frequently used to predict future fire patterns under climate change scenarios using linear extrapolation. However, the relationship between weather and fire extent may potentially depend on the existence of fuel moisture content thresholds above which this relationship changes dramatically, challenging this statistical approach. Here, we combine the continuous and the threshold approaches to analyze satellite-detected fires in Europe during 2001–2010 in relation to meteorological conditions, showing that fire size response to decreasing fuel moisture content follows a ramp function, i.e., with two plateaus separated by a phase of monotonic increase. This study confirms that at continental and high-resolution temporal scales, large fires are very unlikely to occur under moist conditions, but it also reveals that fire size stops to be controlled by fuel moisture content above a given threshold of dryness. Thus, fuel moisture content control only applies when fire is not limited by other factors such as fuel load, as large fires were virtually absent during the considered period in dry regions with less than 500 mm of average annual precipitation, i.e., low-productive areas where fuel amount would be scarce and discontinuous. In regions with sufficient fuel, other factors such as fire suppression or fuel discontinuity can impede large fires even under very dry weather conditions. These findings are relevant under current climatic trends in which the fire season length, in terms of number of days with drought code values above the observed thresholds (break points), is increasing in many parts of the Mediterranean, while it is decreasing in eastern Europe and remains unchanged in central Europe.     

Modelling the trade-off between fire and grazing in a tropical savanna landscape, northern Australia.

As savannas are widespread across northern Australia and provide northern rangelands, the sustainable use of this landscape is crucial. Both fire and grazing are known to influence the tree-grass character of tropical savannas. Frequent fires open up the tree layer and change the ground layer from perennials to that dominated by annuals. Annual species in turn produce copious quantities of highly flammable fuel that perpetuates frequent, hot fires. Grazing reduces fuel loads because livestock consumes fuel-forage. This trade-off between fire and grazing was modelled using a spatially explicit, process-orientated model (SAVANNA) and field data from fire experiments performed in the Victoria River District of northern Australia. Results of simulating fire (over 40 years) with minimal or no grazing pressure revealed a reduction in the shrub and woody plants, a reduction in grasses, and no influence on the tree structure given mild fires. While mature trees were resistant to fire, immature trees, which are more likely associated with the shrub layer, were removed by fire. The overall tree density may be reduced with continual burning over longer time periods because of increasing susceptibility of old trees to fire and the lack of recruitment. Increases in stocking rates created additional forage demands until the majority of the fuel load was consumed, thus effectively suppressing fire and reverting to the grazing and suppressed fire scenario where trees and shrubs established.     

Increasing concentrations of aerosols offset the benefits of climate warming on rice yields during 1980–2008 in Jiangsu Province, China

The impacts of climate change on crop yield have increasingly been of concern. In this study, we investigated the impacts of trends in sunshine duration (S) and maximum temperature (T _max) on rice yields in Jiangsu Province at both the provincial and county level during the period from 1980 to 2008. The results showed that although S and T _max both were positively correlated with rice yields, the combined impacts of the decreasing trend of S (0.37 h/decade) and the increasing trend of T _max (0.34 °C/decade) in August caused a reduction of 0.16 t ha^?1 in rice yields (approximately 1.8 %) in Jiangsu Province, and the trend of S had played a dominant role in the yield losses. Further analyses suggest that the increasing concentration of aerosols from rapid economic development in Jiangsu Province has caused a significant solar dimming at least since 1960, making mitigations and adaptation measurements on regional haze impact imperative. Our study provides a prototype for detecting negative feedback on agricultural production caused by intensified anthropogenic activities that aim only to create rapid economic development.     

Influence of peatland and land cover distribution on fire regimes in insular Southeast Asia

Anthropogenic biomass burning in insular Southeast Asia facilitates conversion and degradation of ecosystems and emits high amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. We analyzed the influence of peat soil and land cover distribution on the occurrence and characteristics of vegetation fires. Two years of satellite-based active fire detections over Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra, Borneo and Java were examined together with land cover and peatland maps. Our results showed that fire occurrence nearly tripled (23,000 → 68,000) from a wet La Niña year (2008) to a drier El Niño year (2009). In both years, fires were concentrated in peatlands (in 2009 41% of fires vs. 10% of land area), and the majority of large-scale burning took place in peatlands. Variation in peatland land cover within the study area was noticed to create remarkable different fire regimes. Biomass burning in the intensely managed Sumatran peatlands was characterized by large-scale land clearance fires that took place annually to varying extent. The largely unmanaged degraded peatland ecosystems of Borneo, on the other hand, experienced very little fire activity in a wet year but were ravaged by large-scale wildfires when El Niño conditions arose. We conclude that fire regime characteristics in insular Southeast Asia are strongly connected to occurrence of peat soil and land management status. This leads to high variation of fire activity within this region both annually (depending on weather patters) and over longer time range (depending on land cover/management issues) and greatly complicates estimation of the effects of fires.     

Smoke-haze pollution: a review of the 1997 episode in Southeast Asia

In the second half of 1997, large areas in Southeast Asia were severely affected by a smoke-haze pollution episode caused by the emissions of an estimated 45,600 km² of vegetation that burnt on the Indonesian islands Kalimantan and Sumatra. To document the impacts of these fires on air quality, data for total suspended particulate matter (TSP) and for particulate matter below or equal to 10 microns in diameter (PM₁₀) from selected sites in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore are analysed in this paper. These data are supplemented by meteorological data, satellite images and a summary of related research. TSP was above 2,000 μg m^–3 for several days in Indonesian locations close to the most extensive fire activity. In Malaysia and Singapore, ambient particle concentrations increased to several times their average September levels. Characteristically for emissions from vegetation burning, the additional atmospheric particle loading during the smoke-haze episode was predominantly due to an increase of the fraction below or equal to 2.5 microns in diameter (PM_2.5). Due to the dominance of respirable particles (PM_2.5) in the smoke-haze, air quality reporting based on TSP or PM₁₀ may be inadequate to assess the health risk. Upgrading of PM_2.5 monitoring facilities is therefore needed. Reducing the probability of similar smoke-haze events in future would require appropriate fire use and smoke management strategies. Electronic Publication     

Land-use legacies in the forest structure of silvopastoral oak woodlands in the Eastern Mediterranean

Eastern Mediterranean silvopastoral oak woodlands have been greatly damaged through forest conversion, illegal lumbering, overgrazing, and forest fires. The aim of this study was to assess land-use changes and the legacies that they have imprinted on the forest structure of Quercus macrolepis and accompanying Quercus pubescens and Quercus cerris woodlands on Lesvos Island, Greece. The size structures of adult oak populations were analyzed as indicators of long-term oak regeneration, while short-term recruitment was determined by counting oak seedlings and saplings. The size structure of the adult Q. macrolepis population was similar to the inverse J-shaped distribution typical for natural Mediterranean oak forests, indicating continuous recruitment with a constant mortality rate of mature individuals. Seedling and sapling densities were highly variable, but generally low in relation to adult oak densities. Recruitment of oak seedlings and saplings was positively related to determinants such as forest cover, adult oak density and basal area, woody plant richness, and litter cover. Both seedling and sapling occurrence were negatively associated with dung frequency, which suggests that sheep grazing imposes a barrier to oak recruitment. The study outlines a comprehensive land-use transition from the 1950 to 1970s, during which a complex and multifunctional agrosilvopastoral land-use system was simplified to an intensive grazing system. The discrepancy between the successful long-term regeneration and the less successful short-term recruitment of oaks illustrates that intensified livestock grazing has been a major driver of vegetation change. Grazing impact is likely to interact with increasing drought conditions, which may trigger a negative feedback cycle that undermines the capacity of woodlands to sustain ecosystem services.     

Energy Use and CO2 Production in Tropical Agriculture and Means and Strategies for Reduction or Mitigation

Carbon dioxide emissions due to fossil fuel consumption are well recognized as a major contributor to climate change. In the debate on dealing with this threat, expectations are high that agriculture based economies of the developing world can help alleviate this problem. But, the contribution of agricultural operations to these emissions is fairly small. It is the clearing of native ecosystems for agricultural use in the tropics that is the largest non-fossil fuel source of CO₂ input to the atmosphere. Our calculation show that the use of fossil energy and the concomitant emission of CO₂ in the agricultural operational sector - i.e. the use of farm machinery, irrigation, fertilization and chemical pesticides - amounts to merely 3.9% of the commercial energy use in that part of the world. Of this, 70% is associated with the production and use of chemical fertilizers. In the absence of fertilizer use, the developing world would have converted even more land for cultivation, most of which is completely unsuitable for cultivation. Current expectations are that reforestation in these countries can sequester large quantities of carbon in order to mitigate excessive emissions elsewhere. But, any program that aims to set aside land for the purpose of sequestering carbon must do so without threatening food security in the region. The sole option to liberate the necessary land for carbon sequestration would be the intensification of agricultural production on some of the better lands by increased fertilizer inputs. As our calculations show, the sequestration of carbon far outweighs the emissions that are associated with the production of the extra fertilizer needed. Increasing the fertilizer use in the developing world (without China) by 20%, we calculated an overall net benefit in the carbon budget of between 80 and 206 Mt yr^?1 dependent on the carbon sequestration rate assumed for the regrowing forest. In those regions, where current fertilizer use is low, the relative benefits are the highest as responding yield increases are highest and thus more land can be set aside without harming food security. In Sub-Saharan Africa a 20% fertilizer increase, which amounts to 0.14 Mt of extra fertilizer, can tie up somewhere between 8 and 19 Mt of CO₂ per year (average: 96 t CO₂ per 1 t fertilizer). In the Near East and North Africa with a 20%-increased fertilizer use of 0.4 Mt yr^-1 between 10 and 24 Mt of CO₂ could be sequestered on the land set aside (40 t CO₂ per 1 t fertilizer). In South Asia this is 22–61 Mt CO₂ yr?1 with an annual additional input of 2.15 Mt fertilizer (19 t CO₂ per 1 t fertilizer). In fact, carbon credits may be the only way for some of the farmers in these regions to afford the costly inputs. Additionally, in regions with already relatively high fertilizer inputs such as in South Asia, an efficient use of the extra fertilizer must be warranted. Nevertheless, the net CO₂ benefit through implementation of this measure in the developing world is insignificant compared to the worldwide CO₂ output by human activity. Thus, reforestation is only one mitigating measure and not the solution to unconstrained fossil fuel CO₂ emissions. Carbon emissions should, therefore, first of all be reduced by the avoidance of deforestation in the developing world and moreover by higher energy efficiency and the use of alternative energy sources.     

Effects of drought stress on leaf gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence of Glycyrrhiza uralensis

Leaf gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence of Glycyrrhiza uralensis Fisch at two water supplies (equivalent to 240 mm for present precipitation and to 120 mm for future decreasing precipitation) were compared. There was a midday depression in net photosynthetic rate (P _N) for either treatment, but stomatal limitation was dominant for present precipitation treatment and non-stomatal limitation for the drought treatment. Compared with present precipitation treatment, P _N, stomatal conductance (g _s) and transpiration rate (E) were always lower at drought stress, but stomatal limitation value (L _s) and water use efficiency (WUE) were higher in the morning. The decrease in carboxylation efficiency (CE), apparent quantum yield (AQY), light-saturated photosynthetic rate and maximal photochemical efficiency of photosystem 2 (PS 2) (F _v/F _m) suggested that rubisco activity reduced and PS 2 partially inactivated during the day under drought. However, part of this inactivation of PS 2 might be alleviated due to increased thermal dissipation under drought.     

Density of Scots pine undergrowth after ground fires in a zone of industrial air pollution

The effects of two exogenous factors, ground fires and industrial air pollution, on natural regeneration of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) cenopopulations have been studied in the Transural region. It has been found that an increased level of air pollution leads to a decrease in the abundance and occurrence frequency of pine undergrowth; as the intensity of ground fire increases, these parameters of the postfire generation of undergrowth increase as well, especially in background areas. As shown by two-way ANOVA, either of these factors and their interaction have a significant effect on the density of pine undergrowth, with this effect being stronger in the case of ground fires.     

Total soil available nitrogen under perennial grasses after burning and defoliation

Total soil available nitrogen concentrations (NO^–3 + NH ₄ ⁺ ) were determined underneath plants of the more-competitive Poa ligularis, mid-competitive Nassella tenuis and the less-competitive Amelichloa ambigua exposed to various combinations of controlled burning and defoliation treatments. Defoliations were at the vegetative (V), internode elongation (E) or both developmental morphology stages (V + E) during two years after burning in northeastern Patagonia, Argentina. Hypotheses were that (1) concentrations of total soil available nitrogen after burning are greater underneath burned than unburned plants. With time, these differences, however, will gradually disappear; (2) greater total soil available nitrogen concentrations are underneath plants of the more- than less-competitive perennial grasses; and (3) total soil available nitrogen is similar or lower underneath plants defoliated at the various developmental morphology stages in all three study species than on untreated controls at the end of the study. Concentration of total soil available nitrogen increased 35% (p < 0.05) on average after the first six months from burning in comparison to control plants. However, these differences disappeared (p > 0.05) towards the end of the first study year. Total soil available nitrogen concentrations were at least 10% lower underneath the less competitive N. tenuis and A. ambigua than the more competitive P. ligularis on average for all treatments, although differences were not significant (p > 0.05) most of the times. Defoliation had practically no effect on the concentration of total soil available nitrogen. Rather than any treatment effect, total soil nitrogen concentrations were determined by their temporal dynamics in the control and after the experimental fire treatments.     

Depositional behaviors of plutonium and thorium isotopes at Tsukuba and Mt. Haruna in Japan indicate the sources of atmospheric dust

Monthly plutonium and thorium depositions at Tsukuba (28 m asl) and Mt. Haruna (1370 m asl) were measured during 2006 and 2007 (Jan 2006-Dec 2007 at Tsukuba, Nov 2006-Dec 2007 at Mt. Haruna). The monthly ^239,240Pu depositions ranged from 0.044 to 2.67 mBq m⁻² at Tsukuba and from 0.05 to 0.9 mBq m⁻² at Mt. Haruna during the measurement periods. Monthly ^239,240Pu deposition did not differ markedly between the two sites except in April 2007. Seasonal pattern of monthly ^239,240Pu depositions at both sites showed high in spring and low in summer, and typical of seasonal variations in northeastern Asia. Thorium deposition at Tsukuba was higher than that at Mt. Haruna except in May and June 2007. ²³⁰Th/²³²Th activity ratios were used to partition deposition samples into locally and remotely derived fractions. The results revealed that a major proportion of total ^239,240Pu and Th deposits are derived from remote sources, especially in spring.     

Daphnia emergence: a sensitive indicator of fire-retardant stress in temporary wetlands

Fire-retardant formulations are increasingly used by fire managers to control wildland fires. Their extensive use requires an assessment of their impacts in those ecosystems that could be affected by them. Recent studies indicate the potential for environmental impacts when accidentally delivered to surface waters. Yet the response of temporary wetlands, such as vernal pools, typical in Mediterranean areas, is unknown. This study reports on the emergence response of a wetland population of Daphnia curvirostris Eylmann (Cladocera, Crustacea) from sediments that were treated with a commercial fire retardant (Fire-Trol 934). Three application levels were used: 1, 3 and 5 L m(-2). The low and medium levels are in the range of manufacturer's recommendations of use in the field based on the fuel characteristics. The high level simulates local elevated concentrations that may result from inhomogeneous retardant delivery. Results indicate that emergence success decreases with increasing application rate, leading to a complete failure with application levels of 5 L m(-2). This suggests that benthic-pelagic interactions in temporary wetlands-often the primary way by which recolonization of isolated wetlands occurs-can be significantly impacted by fire retardants once they fill with fall/winter rains, thereby serving as a sensitive indicator of fire-retardant contamination. Results highlight a research need for establishing of criteria for effective, but environmentally safe use of fire retardants in the environment.     

The mortality effect of ship-related fine particulate matter in the Sydney greater metropolitan region of NSW,Australia

This study investigates the mortality effect of primary and secondary PM_2.5 related to ship exhaust in the Sydney greater metropolitan region of Australia. A detailed inventory of ship exhaust emissions was used to model a) the 2010/11 concentration of ship-related PM_2.5 across the region, and b) the reduction in PM_2.5 concentration that would occur if ships used distillate fuel with a 0.1% sulfur content at berth or within 300 km of Sydney. The annual loss of life attributable to 2010/11 levels of ship-related PM_2.5 and the improvement in survival associated with use of low-sulfur fuel were estimated from the modelled concentrations.In 2010/11, approximately 1.9% of the region-wide annual average population weighted-mean concentration of all natural and human-made PM_2.5 was attributable to ship exhaust, and up to 9.4% at suburbs close to ports. An estimated 220 years of life were lost by people who died in 2010/11 as a result of ship exhaust-related exposure (95% CI_β: 140–290, where CI_β is the uncertainty in the concentration-response coefficient only). Use of 0.1% sulfur fuel at berth would reduce the population weighted-mean concentration of PM_2.5 related to ship exhaust by 25% and result in a gain of 390 life-years over a twenty year period (95% CI_β: 260–520). Use of 0.1% sulfur fuel within 300 km of Sydney would reduce the concentration by 56% and result in a gain of 920 life-years over twenty years (95% CI_β: 600–1200).Ship exhaust is an important source of human exposure to PM_2.5 in the Sydney greater metropolitan region. This assessment supports intervention to reduce ship emissions in the GMR. Local strategies to limit the sulfur content of fuel would reduce exposure and will become increasingly beneficial as the shipping industry expands. A requirement for use of 0.1% sulfur fuel by ships within 300 km of Sydney would provide more than twice the mortality benefit of a requirement for ships to use 0.1% sulfur fuel at berth.     

Climate change impacts on vegetation and water cycle in the Euro-Mediterranean region,studied by a likelihood approach

Scientific community and policy-makers share the common interest in identifying and evaluating potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems, relying mainly on probabilistic methods of exploring the risks. In this perspective, the concept of ensemble forecasting makes possible to handle uncertainties associated with climate risk analysis by focusing on a range of potential or probable impact scenarios rather than actualizing a single case. In this paper, an ensemble of simulations based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model was used to investigate the uncertainty upon predictions of the future Euro-Mediterranean vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water budget. Twenty simulations from past to future were based on the combination of different climate inputs, vegetation model parameterizations, and configurations. The evaluation of results combined the separate deterministic future projections from the LPJ model into a single probabilistic projection, associating a likelihood degree in accordance with the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change terminology. Results projected a general critical situation in terms of water availability, made more serious if considering that also the occurrence of extreme-related events, e.g., fires, is expected to become more frequent as favored by more recurrent drought episodes. Although more uncomfortable climate conditions were projected for vegetation, net primary production (NPP) was predicted to increase due to the potential enrichment of CO₂ in atmosphere and its fertilization effects on vegetation. The combination of rising NPP and fire frequency may shape the carbon cycle components, as the carbon losses by fire also were projected to increase.     

Actual evapotranspiration and canopy resistance measurement of the savannah in the Kouilou basin (Congo-Brazzaville)

The aim of this work is to study the actual evapotranspiration and surface resistance of the savannah using the Bowen-ratio method for two contrasted periods, dry and rainy season. The reliability of this method has been assessed by comparison with the Monteith equation and the soil-water balance method in a 90% Loudetia arundinacea dominated savannah (Pointe Noire, Congo). Our results relate to the period from 18 September to 11 October 1998 (24 days): (a) from 18 to 29 September (“dry season”), the soil-water content was less than 70% of the soil-water content at field capacity (63–70% of R _FC; large soil-water stress; T/E _P from 0.2 to 0.4); (b) from 30 September to 11 October (“rainy season”) soil-water content close to 90–92% of RFC; no soil-water stress; T/E _P from 0.73 to 0.77). The mean daily surface resistance reulting from the Bowen-ratio method was 317 s m^?1, 355 s m^?1 during the “dry season” and 279 s m^?1 during the “rainy season”. The total actual evapotranspiration (E _a) resulting from the Bowen-ratio method, Penman-Monteith equation and soil-water balance method were, respectively of 58.6–57.8 and 56.2 mm, with the mean daily E_a of 2.4–2.4 and 2.3 mm day^?1 (2.4–1.5 and 2.2 mm day^?1 in “dry season” and of 2.5–3.4 and 2.5 mm day^?1 in “rainy season”). The Bowen-ratio method was used for the assessment of the actual evapotranspiration from the temperature and specific humidity differences, net radiation and the soil heat flux measurement: its advantages are a rapidity of installation, a temporal resolution of measurement in less than one hour and a good integration of the heterogeneousness of the savannah’s latent flux of vaporization. This method is adapted to eco-physiological studies in tropical conditions with reduced teams.     

Technogenic stress and its effect on deciduous trees (an example from parks in Yaroslavl)

A comparative analysis of several morphological, physiological, and biochemical characteristics of leaves has been performed in birch (Betula pendula Roth), linden (Tilia cordata Mill.), and poplar (Populus nigra L.) trees growing in industrial areas of Yaroslavl with different levels of anthropogenic pollution. The results show that high concentrations of pollutants in the atmosphere suppress the growth of leaves, and the number and severity of necrotic lesions in them increase. Water content in leaves becomes lower, whereas ash content increases. The contents of photosynthetic pigments change as well: the leaves contain smaller amounts of chlorophylls a and b, whereas the accumulation of carotenoids increases. Judging from changes in the test parameters, P. nigra is more resistant to pollution than B. pendula and T. nordata.     

Holocene Dynamics of Vegetation and Ecological Conditions in the Center of the East European Plain

Changes in the vegetation and fire regimes in the central East European Plain during the second half of the Holocene have been reconstructed based on the results of paleobotanical analysis and radiocarbon dating of material from a section of peat deposit in the Mordovia State Nature Reserve. It has been shown that birch–pine forests were widespread in the region between 7000 and 5000 yr BP, with the frequency of fires in that period being high (the fire return interval ranged from 10–20 to 100 years). Beginning from 5000 yr BP and to the early 20th century, broadleaf forests were dominant, with the fire return interval increasing to 300–500 years or longer.     

Novel process concept for the production of H2 and H2SO4 by SO2-depolarized electrolysis

Outotec open cycle (OOC) is a new low-energy process linking together production of hydrogen and sulfuric acid. While sulfuric acid is the world’s most widely produced chemical by mass at approximately 200 Mt/a, the OOC gives the potential for making 4 Mt/a of hydrogen gas as a by-product. H₂SO₄ manufacture requires a source of sulfur dioxide. 30% of world production of H₂SO₄ is from the SO₂ by-product of pyrometallurgical processing of sulfur containing concentrates of metals such as copper, nickel and zinc. SO₂ can also be made by direct combustion of sulfur. In OOC, a divided electrochemical cell is used for SO₂-depolarized electrolysis of water. SO₂ is fed to the anolyte and converted to H₂SO₄, while hydrogen gas is produced at the cathode. On the industrial scale, the equipment will be in the form of a membrane electrolyzer assembly or stack. A case is described where the OOC would be connected to a pyrometallurgical plant smelting 1 Mt/a of nickel and copper concentrate, producing 1 Mt/a of H₂SO₄ and 20 kt/a of hydrogen.     

Long-term increase in climatic dryness in the East-Mediterranean as evidenced for the island of Samos

The Eastern Mediterranean region is among the regions which were predicted to become drier under IPCC climate scenarios. Here, we document a gradual reduction of rainfall and tree growth and the loss of rural springs during the last decades of the twentieth century. Years with severe drought are associated with very low tree growth (dendrochronology) and dry falling of springs as evidenced by interviews with local stakeholders. The paper discusses the consequences of accelerating drought on natural vegetation and agriculture and points at the interaction with fire dynamics and economy, both likely to enhance the drought effect.