Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century

The eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, a region with diverse socioeconomic and cultural identities, is exposed to strong climatic gradients between its temperate north and arid south. Model projections of the twenty-first century indicate increasing hot weather extremes and decreasing rainfall. We present model results, which suggest that across the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey climate change is particularly rapid, and especially summer temperatures are expected to increase strongly. Temperature rise can be amplified by the depletion of soil moisture, which limits evaporative cooling, prompted by the waning of large-scale weather systems that generate rain. Very hot summers that occurred only rarely in the recent past are projected to become common by the middle and the end of the century. Throughout the region, the annual number of heat wave days may increase drastically. Furthermore, conditions in the region are conducive for photochemical air pollution. Our model projections suggest strongly increasing ozone formation, a confounding health risk factor particularly in urban areas. This adds to the high concentrations of aerosol particles from natural (desert dust) and anthropogenic sources. The heat extremes may have strong impacts, especially in the Middle East where environmental stresses are plentiful.     

Geographical mapping and associated fractal analysis of the long-lived Chernobyl fallout radionuclides in Greece

Immediately after the Chernobyl accident, a soil sampling programme was undertaken in order to detect and quantitatively analyse the long-lived radionuclides in the Chernobyl fallout. Soil samples (1242 in number) of 1 cm thick surface soil were collected in Greece during the period from May-November 1986. The samples were counted and analysed using Ge detector set-ups. The 137Cs fallout data have already been analysed, mapped and published. In an attempt to improve this analysis and also to extent it to other fallout radionuclides, an in-house unix-based data base/geographical information system (DBGIS) was developed. Multifractal analyses of the deposition patterns have also been performed. In the present work, an analysis of the results of the deposition of 137Cs, 134Cs, 144Ce, 141Ce, 125Sb, 110mAg, 106Ru, 103Ru, 95Zr and 54Mn are presented together with relevant fractal analysis and three characteristic contour maps. The maximum detected values of the above-mentioned radionuclides were 149.5 +/- 0.1, 76.1 +/- 0.1, 32.9 +/- 0.2, 46 +/- 2, 4.56 +/- 0.02, 7.98 +/- 0.02, 79.1 +/- 0.4, 337 +/- 2, 20.1 +/- 0.2 and 3.02 +/- 0.02 kBq m-2, respectively. Furthermore, a statistical technique to compare contour maps was introduced and applied to explain the differences which appeared in the maps of the above-mentioned radionuclides.     

Geographical variation in relative risks associated with heat: Update of Spain's Heat Wave Prevention Plan

A decade after the implementation of prevention plans designed to minimise the impact of high temperatures on health, some countries have decided to update these plans in order to improve the weakness detected in these ten years of operation.In the case of Spain, this update has fundamentally consisted of changing the so-called “threshold” or “trigger” temperatures used to activate the plan, by switching from temperature values based on climatological criteria to others obtained by epidemiological studies conducted on a provincial scale.This study reports the results of these “trigger” temperatures for each of Spain's 52 provincial capitals, as well as the impact of heat on mortality by reference to the relative risks (RRs) and attributable risks (ARs) calculated for natural as well as circulatory and respiratory causes.The results obtained for threshold temperatures and RRs show a more uniform behaviour pattern than those obtained using temperature values based on climatological criteria; plus a clear decrease in RRs of heat-associated mortality due to the three causes considered, at both a provincial and regional level as well as for Spain as a whole.The updating of prevention plans is regarded as crucial for optimising the operation of these plans in terms of reducing the effect of high temperatures on population health.     

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Adaptation strategies of farmers to drought in a changing climate in Dingcheng County,Hunan, southern China

Regional Environmental Change -     

Climatic risks and impacts in South Asia: extremes of water scarcity and excess

Regional Environmental Change - This paper reviews the current knowledge of climatic risks and impacts in South Asia associated with anthropogenic warming levels of 1.5–4 °C...     

Typical patterns of smallholder vulnerability to weather extremes with regard to food security in the Peruvian Altiplano

Smallholder livelihoods in the Peruvian Altiplano are frequently threatened by weather extremes, including droughts, frosts and heavy rainfall. Given the persistence of significant undernourishment despite regional development efforts, we propose a cluster approach to evaluate smallholders’ vulnerability to weather extremes with regard to food security. We applied this approach to 268 smallholder households using information from two existing regional assessments and from our own household survey. The cluster analysis revealed four vulnerability patterns that depict typical combinations of household attributes, including their harvest failure risk, agricultural resources, education level and non-agricultural income. We validated the identified vulnerability patterns by demonstrating the correlation between them and an independently reported damage: the purchase of food and fodder resulting from exposure to weather extremes. The vulnerability patterns were then ranked according to the different amounts of purchase. A second validation aspect accounted for independently reported mechanisms explaining smallholders’ sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Based on the similarities among the households, our study contributes to the understanding of vulnerability beyond individual cases. In particular, the validation strengthens the credibility and suitability of our findings for decision-making pertaining to the reduction of vulnerability.     

Polychlorinated biphenyls in ambient air of NW Greece and in particulate emissions

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) bound to total suspended particles (TSP) were determined in the area of Eordea basin, NW Greece, where intensive coal burning for electricity production takes place. The concentrations of PCBs exhibited high variability although within the range reported for urban industrialized areas. The presence of PCBs in fly ash generated from coal burning as well as in particulate emissions from vehicles, domestic heating, burning of refuses and biomass was also examined. The particles emitted from vehicles and central heating exhibited the higher content of PCBs, whereas fly ash the lower. The pattern of PCBs in TSP as well as in particulate emissions was discussed.     

An assessment of the external radiological impact in areas of Greece with elevated natural radioactivity

In the present study, the radiological impact assessment in three selected areas of elevated natural radioactivity in Greece is attempted, based on measurements, theoretical relations, and simple model application. These areas are Milos--an island of volcanic origin in Cyclades Archipelago, Ikaria--an island in the Eastern Aegean Sea and Loutraki--a coastal area in mainland Greece. These areas are characterized by their geothermal springs and vents, which emit fluids into the littoral and sublittoral zones. The results include: (a) the exposure dose rates assessed by a car-borne scintillation spectrometry system; (b) laboratory measurements of the activity concentrations of the gamma-emitters of 238U and 232Th series and 40K in soil, spring water, seawater and sediments by gamma-spectrometry; (c) estimations of the effective dose rate equivalents and health risk assessment for humans and external dose rates for natural aquatic populations in relation to organism habitat; and (d) a radiological evaluation for the environmental quality, in terms of the discrete zones of impact of ionizing radiation.     

Indoor radon levels and influencing factors in houses of Patras,Greece

Measurements of indoor radon concentrations were performed in 28 low-rise houses and 30 apartments in Patras area from December 1996 to November 1997, using nuclear track detectors. The investigation was focused on the effects of season and floor number, as well as on the existence of a basement in low-rise houses on indoor radon levels. It was found that the differences in mean radon concentrations between adjacent seasons, in a number of 61 selected sampling sites distributed in 28 houses, were statistically significant. As expected, a maximum was found in winter and a minimum in summer. The differences in mean radon concentration on different floors of the same houses were also statistically significant and followed a linear decrease from underground to 2nd floor. In addition, indoor radon concentrations in the ground floor were found to be influenced by the existence or not of a basement. The average annual radon concentration was found to be 41 Bq m(-3) for the houses, 28 Bq m(-3) for the apartments and 38 Bq m(-3) for all the dwellings. These values lead to an average effective dose equivalent of 1.1, 0.7 and 0.9 mSv y(-1), respectively. Residents living on the underground in low-rise houses, during winter, where the average effective dose equivalent is 2.1 mSv y(-1), attain the higher risk.     

Natural radionuclides and (137)Cs distributions and their relationship with sedimentological processes in Patras Harbour, Greece

Surficial and subsurficial sediment samples derived from gravity cores, selected from the harbour of Patras, Greece, were analyzed for grain size, water content, bulk density, specific gravity, organic carbon content and specific activities of natural radionuclides and (137)Cs. The specific activities of (232)Th, (226)Ra, (40)K and (137)Cs were measured radiometrically. The radionuclides (238)U and (232)Th were also analyzed using the INAA. The differences found between the specific activities of the natural radionuclides measured by the two methods are of no statistical significance. The sediment cores selection was based on a detailed bathymetric and marine seismic survey. Through the study of the detailed bathymetric map and the seismic profiles it was shown that ship traffic is highly influential to the harbour bathymetry. The granulometric and geotechnical properties of the sediments and therefore the specific activities of the natural radionuclides and (137)Cs seem to be controlled by the ship traffic. Relationship between radionuclide activity concentrations and granulometric/geotechnical parameters was defined after the treatment of all the analyses using R-mode factor analysis. The natural radionuclide activities are related to the fine fraction and bulk density of the sediments, while (137)Cs is mainly influenced by the organic carbon content. In addition, (238)U and (226)Ra seem to be in close relation with the heavy minerals fraction in coarse-grained sediments with high specific gravity.     

Concentration levels of 210Pb and 210Po in dry tobacco leaves in Greece

Tobacco leaves are large and have sticky exudates that retain the radon decay products once they deposit on the leaves. The study of 210Po in tobacco is required, because of the cumulative alpha-radiation dose delivered to humans from inhaled 210Po in cigarette smoke. 210Pb is the other element of interest since it is the 210Po precursor in the radioactive decay chain. In the present study, the concentrations of these two radionuclides were determined in tobacco samples from seven regions in Greece. 210Po was determined by alpha spectrometry using a surface barrier detector after radiochemical separation and spontaneous deposition of polonium on a nickel disk. The 210Pb activity in the samples was determined via the 210Po resulting from the decay of 210Pb. The results of the present study indicate that 210Po concentrations ranged from 3.6 to 17.0 mBqg(-1) (average 13.1 mBqg(-1)) of dry tobacco, while 210Pb concentrations ranged from 7.3 to 18.0 mBqg(-1) (average 13.4 mBqg(-1)). The mean value of the annual committed effective dose for smokers (20 cigarettes per day) of Greek tobacco was estimated to be 287 microSv (124 microSv from 210Po and 163 microSv from 210Pb). The inhalation dose for smokers is on average about 12 times higher than for non-smokers living in the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere.     

Women farmers’ perceived indices of occurrence and severity of observed climate extremes in rural Savannah,Ghana

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Climate extremes over the years have been a major concern for the globalized world. The hardest hit from these climate extremes are women farmers with...     

Perspectives of farmers and tourists on agricultural abandonment in east Lesvos,Greece

Regional Environmental Change - Multi-stakeholder perceptions of landscape changes are increasingly recognized as essential inputs to discussions on future landscape developments, particularly when...     

Assessment of natural radiation exposure and radon exhalation from building materials in Greece

In controlling the natural radiation exposure for the residents of dwellings, it is necessary to determine the levels of natural radioactivity (external exposure) and radon exhalation rate (internal exposure) from building materials. Using a high-resolution gamma ray spectrometry system, the activity concentration of natural radionuclides was measured. The radon exhalation rate was measured by hermetically closing the sample in a container and following the radon activity growth as a function of time. Three different methods were applied in order to find the most appropriate, i.e. that with the less uncertainty for the less exposure time. Typical building materials were analyzed in order to examine the external and internal exposures. In addition, the total annual effective dose was evaluated for the residents of a typical Greek dwelling.     

Technogenic pollution of soil and plant cover in southern Primorye

Evaluation of technogenic load on ecosystems of southern Primorye has shown that the soil contents of ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³⁷Cs vary within the ranges of 0.3–1.3 and 0.4–3.0 kBq/m², respectively; i.e., they do not exceed the level of background radioactivity that is considered normal at latitudes between 50° and 60° N. The presence of ¹³⁴Cs in the samples indicates a contribution from radionuclides discharged by the Fukushima nuclear accident. According to calculations, the additional ¹³⁷Cs input into the soils of the study area varies between 0.03 and 0.30 kBq/m². Soil analysis for heavy metals and trace elements has revealed an approximately twofold excess over safety norms (MACs) in the concentrations of technogenic Cu and Pb. For other elements, the excess is within the range of 8–32%.     

Comparative assessment of natural radioactivity in fallout samples from Patras and Megalopolis, Greece

Bulk deposition samples were collected simultaneously from two Greek cities, Patras and Megalopolis, with different emission sources of natural radioactivity, on a monthly basis, during a whole year. Gross beta-activity and 238U- and 232Th-activities were determined in a total of 95 samples of deposited dust. The results were statistically analyzed in order to determine the natural radioactivity levels and their variations in the above cities. No significant difference was found in deposited dust amount between the two cities, while the values of gross beta-, 238U- and 232Th-activities were about 3, 71 and 4 times higher in Megalopolis than in Patras, respectively. This was attributed to the operation of lignite power plants A and B in the vicinity of the city of Megalopolis, while natural radioactivity concentrations in Patras' fallout samples were of natural sources.     

Quantitative level of research in fish ecology and errors associated with it

Consideration is given to the relevance of error assessment in quantitative studies on fish ecology. A classification is given to the sources of error, and it is shown how to estimate the cumulative error of indices used in the study and, on this basis, to plan further research.     

Social capital and citizen perceptions of coastal management for tackling climate change impacts in Greece

There is a growing consensus among researchers that social aspects and the involvement of local communities play a critical role in public decision-making processes in the coastal zone. Social capital is a parameter which has recently gained significant attention in this context. It is regarded that it has a significant influence on the adaptation capacity of local communities to climate change impacts. The present paper aims to contribute to this field through an examination of citizens’ perceptions of three coastal zone management policies (hold the line, managed realignment and no active intervention) along with the influence of social capital on the level of social acceptability for these proposed policy options. For this purpose, a quantitative empirical study was conducted for the first time in five coastal areas of Greece that are regarded as high flood-risk areas due to sea-level rise. Respondents demonstrated that they are willing to accept changes in their social and natural environments in order to confront sea-level rise and are more positive towards the managed realignment option, as long as this is accompanied by financial compensation for those whose properties will be affected. Regarding the influence of social capital, through the results of an ordinal regression, it was observed that institutional and social trust influence positively citizens’ level of agreement for the managed realignment policy. Furthermore, respondents who believe that a sense of reciprocity exists in their community are also more willing to accept active intervention policies.