Branching processes, Markov chains, and competing risks

This paper re-proves and generalizes results by Hardin and Sweet on the time to absorption in certain Markov chains by using a theorem on the time to extinction in multitype branching processes. Renaming “absorption” as “death” and “state immediately before absorption” as “cause of death” makes possible an interpretation in terms of competing risks. This is of very limited value, however, due to the rather severe mathematical restrictions on the Markov chains at hand.     

Consultative mechanisms in Sweden's environment protection policy

The institutional and legislative framework of Swedish environmental protection is presented with special reference to the role of consultation in the policy process. The functions and duties of the National Environment Protection Board, the Franchise Board for Environment Protection, the Environment Advisory Board, and the Product Control Board are outlined. The main thrust of the 1969 Environment Protection Act, the 1972 Hazardous Products Control Act, and the environmental impact assessment requirements of the Planning and Building Legislation is presented. The character of consultation within this framework is also discussed, with reference to the role of public participation and of organized regulated interests. It is found that the main functions of consultation in policy-making are “feeding back on former policy,” “foreseeing future policies,” and “canvassing for consensus.” In the stage of policy clarification, consultation is found to be a means of “catering for compliance” and “creating coherence.” In policy implementation, consultation is an important means of gathering information from parties possibly affected by implementative decisions.     

Interactions between diesel emissions and gaseous copollutants in photochemical air pollution: Some health implications

A complete assessment of the health effects of diesel emissions must take into account the possible chemical transformations (and associated biological impacts) of particulate organic matter (POM) due to reactions with the many gaseous copollutants which have now been unambiguously demonstrated to be present in atmospheres burdened by photochemical air pollution. These copollutants include the “trace” species, nitric (HNO₃) and nitrous (HONO) acids, the nitrate radical (NO₃), formaldehyde (H₂CO) and formic acid (HCOOH), as well as the criteria pollutants, ozone (O₃) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂). Techniques for establishing the atmospheric concentrations of the trace pollutants (and their spatial and temporal variations) are briefly described, and we present results of investigations into the reactions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) coated on filters and exposed to ambient concentrations of O₃ and NO₂. Environmental health implications of these results are discussed and include the potential for sampling “artifacts” and their possible effects on the correlation (or lack thereof) between ambient PAH levels and urban lung cancer rates, as well as the problems associated with understanding the appropriate POM “dose” to be employed in animal testing and assessments of impacts on human health.     

Efficient ventilation in office rooms

Results from a two-box model for calculation of tracer gas concentrations in rooms are given and consequences of different definitions of “ventilation efficiency” are discussed. Results from three different series of experiments are presented. The first two series were dilution experiments; examples of the results are given and discussed. The third series of tests was performed with one person working at a desk in the test room. Above the person;s head, a tracer gas (N₂O) was injected into the convection plume, with as low momentum as possible. Starting with zero concentration, a test continued until steady-state conditions were established for the concentration levels in the different parts of the room. The tests included simulation of summer, autumn/spring, and winter daytime conditions. The results indicate a tendency towards lower tracer gas concentrations in the “breathing zone” when the supply air (typical flow rate equivalent to two air changes per hour) is brought into the room at a low level as compared to a high level close to the ceiling. The exhaust air terminal device in all tests was situated high in the “corridor” wall.     

Olfactory and chemical characterization of indoor air. Towards a psychophysical model for air quality

The relationship between the odor strength of total air samples and the odor strengths of the constituents was investigated in three field experiments in an office building and a new preschool. The odor strength was scaled by magnitude estimation according to a master scale principle which results in comparable values for the total and the constituent odors. Between 60 and 120 chemical components were detected by GC/FID in the indoor air samples (N = 66). Most (81%) of the detected components in an air sample were odorous, even though most of them were of the low concentrations. By a method of pattern analysis, chemical as well as odor patterns of indoor air were found to be characteristics of different buildings. From the odor patterns (POG), the “odor print” of the outdoor air associated with the buildings was also recognized in the indoor air. Thus, the “odor print” of an air sample is different from its “chemical print”. A model was found that predicts the overall odor strength of an air sample from the number of FID-detected components most frequently reported to have a strong odor.     

Physical characterization of diesel exhaust particles in exposure chambers

Since the deposition of particulate in the respiratory system is strongly influenced by particle size, a correct assessment of this parameter is important for any inhalation experiment studying the potential health effects of air pollutants. Measuring the distribution of particles according to their aerodynamic diameter and mechanical mobility diameter is crucial in analyzing the deposition of submicron particles in the lower respiratory system. Cascade impactor measurements of diluted diesel exhaust in 12.6 m³ animal exposure chambers in the GMR Biomedical Science Department showed that the mass median aerodynamic diameter of the aerosol was 0.2 μm with 88% of the mass in particles smaller than 1 μm. Diffusion battery measurements showed that the mass median mechanical mobility diameter was about 0.11 μm. Transmission electron micrographs of particles deposited on chamber surfaces revealed both agglomerates and nearly spherical particles. The particles in these chambers are similar in size and shape to diesel particles described elsewhere. The flux of diesel particles to food surfaces was measured. Calculations of the expected daily dose by inhalation and by feeding showed that the “worst case” dose by feeding was only about one-tenth the dose by breathing.     

Electrostatic precipitator emission and opacity performance control through rapper strategy

The opacity and emission performance of two “identical” cold-side precipitators at a power plant utilizing a Western coal source was investigated through an extensive test program. The test program included establishment of outlet emission versus opacity correlations for the two “identical” units, correlation of rapper strategy (frequency and amplitude) with opacity, and correlation of power-off rapping strategy with opacity. Analysis of the test program data demonstrates that the opacity-emission correlations from the two “identical” units can be significantly different. The potential reasons for the differences between the two units are identified and examined in light of the test program data. Strong correlation of opacity with rapping strategy was developed from the test program. Results demonstrate that an automatic power-off rapping technique can significantly enhance precipitator performance on ash from Western coal.     

Ozone control strategies in the United States

Conventional control strategies for volatile organic compounds (VOCs), a precursor to ozone, are identified. The control measures have been adopted by states in their efforts to attain the national ambient air quality standard for ozone by statutorily mandated deadlines. An inventory of viable control approaches for VOCs is presented, rather than a discussion of the approaches' comparative merits or of available alternatives. Focus is placed upon the technologies and control measures that U.S. EPA has identified as “reasonably available”, considering such criteria as effectiveness, costs, and associated energy and environmental impacts. These regulatory approaches include such strategies as vapor control in gasoline marketing, low solvent technologies and/or add-on control equipment for surface coating operations, and vehicle inspection and maintenance programs. By adopting these and additional control measures, as required, most states are projecting attainment of the ozone standard by 1987.     

A study of effects of ambient urban air pollution using personal samplers; a preliminary report

Air pollution has been associated with an increased incidence of respiratory disease. However, significant differences may exist between air pollution levels measured at conventional fixed monitoring stations and actual levels inhaled by a subject. Furthermore, studies of effects of air pollution might best be done using asthmatics as study subjects, since they have irritable airways. This is a preliminary report of a study using a control and asthmatic group in which effects of air pollution are assessed by sympton and medication diaries and simple pulmonary function tests. Air pollution exposure is measured using a small portable sampler for particulates, SO₂ and NO₂; these samplers are carried by the subject (“personal”) and are situated inside and outside the home. Levels obtained are compared to data obtained from the same type of sampler located at a fixed monitoring station. Preliminary analysis of the data shows that the levels of pollutants are low and there are significant differences between the four air pollution measurements, with weak correlations among the various measurements. In this preliminary report, change in pulmonary function during the day correlates only with personal NO₂ measurements. This suggests the need for estimating air pollution exposure using “personal” samplers, when investigating health effects.     

Towards a coherent conceptual framework for emergency preparedness/response and rehabilitation – the application of the new ICRP recommendations given in ICRP 103

In the past, most emphasis in planning for and response to an emergency situation has been placed on selected protective measures in the early phase of an emergency to keep the doses received below levels where severe deterministic health effects can be excluded and/or where the risk of stochastic effects in the population is considered “acceptable”. Less emphasis has been placed on the development of comprehensive protection strategies which include considerations of the consequences of all exposure pathways and all phases, e.g. long-term rehabilitation. In its new publication 103, ICRP proposed a coherent conceptual framework for protection in all types of exposure situations including “emergency exposure situations” and “existing exposure situations”. In the context of developing protection strategies for these exposure situations, the Commission recommends that national authorities set reference levels between, typically, 20 mSv and 100 mSv annual effective dose (emergency exposure situation) and 1 mSv and 20 mSv (existing exposure situation). In order to optimise protection strategies, it is necessary to identify the dominant exposure pathways, the timescales over which the dose will be received, and the effectiveness of available protection options. The characteristics of the development and implementation of such protection strategies is described.     

Carbon dioxide and climate: an astrophysical perspective

In this survey the earth is viewed from the astrophysical perspective, i.e. using global mean values of environmental parameters. The role of carbon dioxide is described in the processes of energy transfer from the earth's surface to space, which determine “global climate” as measured by the mean surface temperature. Analogies and differences between the problems of the terrestrial atmosphere and those of the solar and stellar atmospheres are examines, both in the computation of model atmosphere and in remote sensing of atmospheric temperature and composition. Subsequently, the temporal astrophysical perspective, with a review of the evolution of CO₂ abundance and climate on astrophysical or geological time scales, on earth as on Venus (the runaway greenhouse) and on Mars is introduced. Variation of CO₂ may have been critical to the maintenance of an environment in which life could originate and evolve, and may itself have been affected by life. On human time scales, the recent and continuing increase in atmospheric CO₂ raises new problems, which are briefly surveyed. It is argued, that the differential greenhouse effect of increased CO₂ in the earth's atmosphere is essentially identical to the “blanketing effect” of spectral lines on the temperature structure of stellar atmospheres. The methods used by astrophysicists in such studies are reviewed and compared with those used to evaluate the differential greenhouse effect of CO₂ in radiative-convective models of the earth's atmosphere. The latter methods remain relatively crude, but recent results by different authors are in reasonably good agreement; however, the astrophysical perspective, i.e. the use of one-dimensional global mean models, remains a gross simplification of the real complexity of the earth's climate system, which is also true in stellar atmospheres.     

Improving the efficiency of free-jet scrubbers

A free-jet scrubber is an innovative gas cleaner in which the primary liquid/gas contacting takes place in the turbulent mixing zone emanating from a jet nozzle. The first such devices, powered by supersonic steam or air ejectors, were exceptionally effective cleaners but were criticized as being high-energy users. A great reduction in the energy consumption of free-jet scrubbers has been accomplished in the last four years, a feat which may seem in contradiction to the “contacting power rule.” An explanation of what is happening in these devices must take into account the effectiveness with which energy and water are utilized. thereby leading one to a somewhat circular definition of “effective contacting power.” The theoretical implication of this analysis is primarily to remind us that there are many paths between two states and some are more energy efficient than others. The practical value is that such analysis generates information which aids in choosing between several design options, a direct benefit of the various free-jet configurations.     

Impact of European legislation on marketed pesticides — A view from the standpoint of health impact assessment studies

The very significant impact of European legislation (Directive 91/414/EEC) on the authorization of plant protection products is reviewed herein, which has resulted in withdrawal of 704 active substances (AS) out of 889 assessed so far. The list of currently approved 276 AS includes 194 AS “existing” in the market before 1993 and 82 “new” AS introduced during the last 15 years. Results of toxicity characterization of the approved AS are also summarized, utilizing several well-known databases. Although significant data gaps exist for a rather large part of the approved AS, it is found that 84 AS are positive for at least one health effect (after chronic and/or acute exposure) including carcinogenicity, reproductive and neuro-developmental disorders, as well as endocrine disruption. The toxicity characterization results of this study are compared to those of recent assessments by other organizations (KemI, the Swedish Chemicals Agency, and the Pesticide Safety Directorate of the UK), where interpretation and use is made of AS “cut-off” criteria foreseen in new EU legislation. These studies report a comparatively smaller AS number with positive toxicity characterization. The possibility of some additional AS withdrawal in the near future, combined with the rather small rate of new AS introduction (approx. 5 per year) suggest that the list of approved AS over the next 10–15 years may not change very drastically. Consideration of the above trends is necessary and instructive in evaluating results of existing health impact assessment (HIA) studies, as well as in planning new ones. Due to the very drastic change in the number and type of marketed AS, that took place within the past 8–9 years, it is suggested that new HIA studies (based on epidemiological data after year 2000) should focus on a rather short time frame and, therefore, on appropriate cohort groups, e.g. young children. For the same reason, results of epidemiological studies of the past (involving banned AS) should be carefully interpreted and used with caution.     

Pilot field study: Carbon monoxide exposure monitoring in the general population

A pilot field study was conducted with nine members of the general public to measure carbon monoxide exposure using personal monitors. The principal study objectives were to design and evaluate the research protocol and the instrumentation performance for application to the conduct of a large-scale personal monitoring program. Integrated carbon monoxide exposure was monitored and recorded according to type of activity such as “commuting” or “at work” for approximately 45 days by each subject. All subjects except one were able to handle both the equipment and data recording requirements with no significant problems. Actual data recording responsibilities consumed less than 10 min daily. The data consisted of 355 person-days each over 6-h duration, and weekdays only, from which 8-h average personal exposure levels could be computed. The 9 ppm (μL/L) ambient air quality standard was exceeded on 22 person-days. Elevated carbon monoxide concentrations during the commuting activity were frequently associated with the exceedences.     

Noise susceptibility: A comparison of two naval aviator populations

The identification of characteristics of noise-susceptible (S) or noise-resistant (R) individuals is necessary for the development of noise-susceptibility risk profiles. Fifty-six naval aviators, categorized as having either incurred a hearing loss, i.e., hearing threshold levels (HTLs) > 40 dB at 4–8 kHz or retained normal hearing, i.e., HTLs ≤ 25 dB at 125 Hz-8 kHz, after thousands of flight hours were compared along several auditory and non-auditory dimensions. A number of variables occurred differentially in the two groups: Minimal Auditory Intensity Differential (MAID) scores at 2 kHz (p < 0.01) and 4 kHz (p < 0.001); iris pigmentation (blue eyes were over-represented in the S group; p < 0.05); systolic blood pressure (sitting; S group was higher; p < 0.05); calcium, albumin, and LDH levels (higher in the R group; p < 0.05); and present tobacco usage (more S aviators were currently smokers; p < 0.05). The S population also tended (p < 0.10) to exhibit elevated cholesterol and triglyceride levels as well as higher contralateral acoustic reflexes, and to have fewer individuals who had never smoked. Although no classic profile of the S or R individual definitely emerged, results suggested that at least one measurement device (MAID test) may serve as an “early warning” of imminent noise-induced damage. Further research, however, is required to test this possibility.     

Tubular electrostatic precipitators of two-stage design

Although the “two stage” electrostatic precipitator concept was first developed in 1910, until recently most of their use was confined to in-plant air cleaning. In the last decade, plate type designs have been modified to make them suitable for industrial applications involving organic emissions, most notably in asphalt saturating, plastic curing, food processing, printing, textile finishing, and heat treating industries. However, plate type designs are inadequate in applications where very high loading and/or high particulate content are involved.Tubular design with wider spacing and higher voltages incorporates the best features of both the single stage and two stage type precipitators. These units have been used in molybdenum roasting, zirconium calcining, ammonia scrubbing of oxides of sulfur, meat broiling, foundry exhaust, etc.The paper discusses design parameters, field test data, and operating data on these units. Comparisons with single-stage type precipitators are made wherever applicable. Advantages and disadvantages of two stage precipitators are also discussed.     

Empirical and theoretical evidence concerning the response of the earth's ice and snow cover to a global temperature increase

As a guide to the possible effects of a CO₂-induced warming on the cryosphere, we review the effects of three warm periods in the past, and out theoretical understanding of fluctuations in mountain glaciers, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, ground ice, sea ice and seasonal snow cover. Between 1890 and 1940 A.D. the glaciated area in Switzerland was reduced by over 25%. In the Hypsithermal, at about 6000 BP, ground ice in Eurasia retreated northward by several hundred kilometres. In the interglacial Stage 5e, at about 120 000 BP, global sea-level rose by over 6 m. Fluctuations of mountain glaciers depend on mesoscale “weather” and on their mechanical response to it. Any melting of the Greenland ice sheet is likely to be slow in human terms. The West Antarctic ice sheet (its base below sea-level) is susceptible to an ungrounding, and such an event may have been the cause of the sea-level rise above. The East Antarctic ice sheet is susceptible to mechanical “surges”, which might be triggered by a warming at its margin. Both an ungrounding and a surge might occupy less than 100 yr, and are potetially the most important ice changes in human terms. Modelling studies suggest that a 5°C warming would remove the Arctic pack ice in summer, and this may be the most significant effect for further climatic change.     

Air pollution control policy in the Federal Republic of Germany as a strategy for dealing with environmental risks

The paper describes criteria for the development of energy systems, with emphasis on “environmental compatibility.” It outlines the main objectives underlying political and regulatory action in the Federal Republic of Germany to ensure this compatibility through the management of environmental risks. The air pollution control policy in the Federal Republic of Germany is presented as a strategy for risk management, focusing on its philosophy and on the recent ordinances concerning air pollution control in large firing (combustion) installations.