Looking beyond the average agricultural impacts in defining adaptation needs in Europe

The effects of climate change on agriculture are often characterised by changes in the average productivity of crops; however, these indicators provide limited information regarding the risks associated with fluctuations in productivity resulting from future changes in climate variability that may also affect agriculture. In this context, this study evaluates the combined effects of the risks associated with anomalies reflected by changes in the mean crop yield and the variability of productivity in European agro-climatic regions under future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to evaluate adaptation needs and to identify regional effects that should be addressed with greater urgency in the light of the risks and opportunities that are identified. The results show differential effects on regional agriculture and highlight the importance of considering both regional average impacts and the variability in crop productivity in setting priorities for the adaptation and maintenance of rural incomes and agricultural insurance programmes.     

Forest fires caused by lightning as an indicator of connections between atmosphere,lithosphere, and biosphere

A significant positive correlation between the density of lightning fires and the horizontal gradient of anomalous geomagnetic field is demonstrated on the basis of studies on lichen pine forests in the Konda River basin (Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area, Western Siberia) and analysis of published data. Schematic hypotheses of global connections in the atmosphere-lithosphere-forest-lightning fire are proposed.     

Combining qualitative and quantitative understanding for exploring cross-sectoral climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in Europe

Climate change will affect all sectors of society and the environment at all scales, ranging from the continental to the national and local. Decision-makers and other interested citizens need to be able to access reliable science-based information to help them respond to the risks of climate change impacts and assess opportunities for adaptation. Participatory integrated assessment (IA) tools combine knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines, take account of the value and importance of stakeholder ‘lay insight’ and facilitate a two-way iterative process of exploration of ‘what if’s’ to enable decision-makers to test ideas and improve their understanding of the complex issues surrounding adaptation to climate change. This paper describes the conceptual design of a participatory IA tool, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, based on a professionally facilitated stakeholder engagement process. The CLIMSAVE (climate change integrated methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe) Platform is a user-friendly, interactive web-based tool that allows stakeholders to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for a range of sectors, including agriculture, forests, biodiversity, coasts, water resources and urban development. The linking of models for the different sectors enables stakeholders to see how their interactions could affect European landscape change. The relationship between choice, uncertainty and constraints is a key cross-cutting theme in the conduct of past participatory IA. Integrating scenario development processes with an interactive modelling platform is shown to allow the exploration of future uncertainty as a structural feature of such complex problems, encouraging stakeholders to explore adaptation choices within real-world constraints of future resource availability and environmental and institutional capacities, rather than seeking the ‘right’ answers.     

Farm income, gender differentials and climate risk in Cameroon: typology of male and female adaptation options across agroecologies

This paper explores the response to risk of smallholder agricultural producers in the face of variable and changing climate in Cameroon. The low rainfall distribution in some regions of the country and the high inter-seasonal variability of rainfall makes crop production, on which the livelihood of rural inhabitants is based, a risky enterprise. Women farmers in Cameroon are an important group for whom risk aversion influences production outcomes and welfare. This study identifies and analyses the effect of climate risks on the productive activities and the management options of male and female farmers. Women-owned farms, on average, record profits of US620 per hectare to about US 620 per hectare to about US 935 for crop enterprises across the different agroecological zones. Comparatively static results indicate that increases in climate variability and the uncertainty of climate conditions have an explicit impact on farm profit. The impacts of increased uncertainty in climate and risk aversion are ambiguous depending on the agroecology. Ex-ante and ex-post risk management options reveal that female-owned farms in the northern Sahel savannah zone rely on more sophisticated strategies to reduce the impact of shocks. While adapting to uncertain climate positively influences profit levels, risk measured as the variance of rainfall or temperature per unit variation in profit is significant. This analysis stresses the increased importance of climate risk management as a prelude to the panoply of adaptation choice in response to expected climatic change.     

Subjective realities of climate change: how mental maps of impacts deliver socially sensible adaptation options

This paper discusses the perceived impacts of weather-related extreme events on different social groups in New Delhi, India. Using network statistics and scenario analysis with the Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping as part of a vulnerability analysis, the investigation provides quantitative and qualitative measures to compare impacts and adaptation strategies for different social groups. Impacts of rain events and heat waves are considered and differ across groups. Rain events affect the lower income classes more, while heat waves are the bigger burden for higher income classes. Overall, the strength of perceived impacts is larger for lower income classes, directly threatening their daily incomes. Urban managers have no immediate feedback on their livelihood, but often refer to health issues. The strongest effect on ameliorating burdens is investments in schemes to ease traffic, e.g., by improving the sewage and drainage infrastructure paired with other supply side measures to enable transport of goods for lower income classes during rain. During heat events, improving the water supply situation would reduce burden for all, while constant electricity supply is an effective means in reducing burden for the higher income classes in particular. Our analysis suggests that improvements in the water supply and sewage infrastructure would be the most suitable first step to initiate a well-planned adaptation strategy for all social groups.     

Forest-ecological consequences of fires in light conifer forests of Transbaikalia

Consideration is given to the results of studies on the postfire dynamics of Transbaikal forests, which are formed under conditions of highly arid climate and extreme pyrological regime. Data are presented on tree die-off and recruitment in naturally burned forests and in test stands affected by creeping fires differing in intensity. The hydrothermal regime of soils, precipitation runoff, and its multifactor models are discussed. It is shown that fires aggravate moisture deficiency on mountain slopes, impair the productivity of tree stands, and cause their digression. The statistics of forest fires and the risk of lightning fires are analyzed.     

Storm surges: perspectives and options

This review paper attempts to summarize the scattered and fragmented knowledge about past and possible future changing storm-surge statistics using the particularly well-studied case of the North Sea as an example. For this region, a complete and robust analysis methodology has been developed in recent years. This methodology is based on dynamical and statistical models. Using the concept of dynamical downscaling, development during recent decades, when sufficiently good and homogeneous weather data exist, has been “reconstructed,” and scenarios of possible future change are described. “Localization” allows estimation of changes at specific sites, e.g., harbors. As local water-level statistics depend not only on climate variations but also on local modifications of the local bathymetry, new options for adaptation emerge. For the case of Hamburg, an option for such future adaptations is discussed.     

Tsunami hazards in Europe

Tsunami represents one of the most potentially serious forms of coastal flood risk. Although much is known on the recorded history of tsunamis for given areas of the world, very little information is available on the occurrence of palaeotsunamis during prehistory. This is of fundamental importance in calculating tsunami flood risk for any given coastal area. Given sufficient information on past tsunami activity for a particular coastal area, the numerical calculation of aggregate coastal flood risk (including tsunami) for a coastal area is very difficult to estimate since one needs also to take into account the risk of a tsunami and a storm surge taking place simultaneously during a high tide. Estimates of coastal flood risk also need to consider future changes in relative sea level caused by the combined effects of global climate change and vertical movements of the lithosphere.     

Impact of fires on the fauna of terrestrial arthropods in protected steppe ecosystems

The abundance of terrestrial arthropods in the Orenburgskii Nature Reserve has decreased since its establishment in 1989. At present, this parameter fluctuates considerably, and the species composition of arthropods is changing in favor of xerobiontic and eurybiontic species. These changes result from the absence of grazing load as well as from periodic fires. Therefore, it is necessary to organize controlled livestock grazing and reliable fire protection in reserved areas.     

Forest income and dependency in lowland Bolivia

Forests contribute to livelihoods of rural people throughout the tropics. This paper adds to the emerging body of quantitative knowledge on absolute and relative economic importance, through both cash and subsistence income, of moist forests to households. Qualitative contextual information was collected in six villages in lowland Bolivia, followed by a structured survey of randomly selected households (n = 118) that included four quarterly income surveys. We employed a novel data collection approach that allows detailed estimation of total household accounts, including sources of forest income. We estimated the average forest income share of total annual household income (forest dependency) at 20%, ranging from 18 to 24%. Adding environmental income increased the average to 26%, being fairly constant across income quartiles at 24–28%. Absolute levels of forest income increased with total household income, while forest dependency was the highest in the best-off income quartile—the primary harvesters of forest products are better-off households. The pattern of high forest dependency among better-off households has also been reported from other countries, indicating that this pattern may be more common than advocated by conventional wisdom. Using ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions, we found significant determinants of absolute forest income to be household size, sex of household head and area of cultivated land; the significant determinants for forest dependency were level of education, whether household head was born in village and whether household was food self-sufficient. Better-off households were able to realise cash income from forests, while poorer households—in particular if headed by women—were more reliant on subsistence forest income. We argue that the differential patterns of forest income across income quartiles should be considered in future development interventions and that findings indicate a potential for forests to contribute to moving households out of poverty.     

Co-Partnership in Forest Management: The Gwira-Banso Joint Forest Management Project in Ghana

The involvement of local communities, as well as the private sector and the government in forest management is now an important principle of tropical forestry policy and practice and a major component of most international forestry aid programmes. This paper present an analysis on the Joint Forest Management Project initiated by two timber companies (Ghana Primewood Products Ltd and Dalhoff Larsen & Horneman) in collaboration with local people in Gwira-Banso of Ghana. Conditions required for enhancing responsibility for and commitment to local forest management, and for an effective local participatory process were also analysed. The study began with the premise that incentives and good communication will enhance participation in joint forest management.The assumption was valid and the results from the survey showed that five broad issues prioritised by respondents to be essential for co-partnership in forest management are communication, financial support, tree planting, multiple land use and benefit sharing. The Project enjoys a great deal of support from the local community, but a number of factors make the continued support of local people a challenging task, including questions of immediate livelihood sources and tenure arrangements. Although this participatory forest management has been implemented over a relatively short period, there is evidence that government and private sectors can successfully involve local people in sustainable management of the forests.     

Climate change adaptation in European river basins

This paper contains an assessment and standardized comparative analysis of the current water management regimes in four case-studies in three European river basins: the Hungarian part of the Upper Tisza, the Ukrainian part of the Upper Tisza (also called Zacarpathian Tisza), Alentejo Region (including the Alqueva Reservoir) in the Lower Guadiana in Portugal, and Rivierenland in the Netherlands. The analysis comprises several regime elements considered to be important in adaptive and integrated water management: agency, awareness raising and education, type of governance and cooperation structures, information management and—exchange, policy development and—implementation, risk management, and finances and cost recovery. This comparative analysis has an explorative character intended to identify general patterns in adaptive and integrated water management and to determine its role in coping with the impacts of climate change on floods and droughts. The results show that there is a strong interdependence of the elements within a water management regime, and as such this interdependence is a stabilizing factor in current management regimes. For example, this research provides evidence that a lack of joint/participative knowledge is an important obstacle for cooperation, or vice versa. We argue that there is a two-way relationship between information management and collaboration. Moreover, this research suggests that bottom-up governance is not a straightforward solution to water management problems in large-scale, complex, multiple-use systems, such as river basins. Instead, all the regimes being analyzed are in a process of finding a balance between bottom-up and top–down governance. Finally, this research shows that in a basin where one type of extreme is dominant—like droughts in the Alentejo (Portugal) and floods in Rivierenland (Netherlands)—the potential impacts of other extremes are somehow ignored or not perceived with the urgency they might deserve.