Land cover changes as impacted by spatio-temporal rainfall variability along the Ethiopian Rift Valley escarpment

Magnitudes of land cover changes nowadays can be assessed properly, but their driving forces are subject to many discussions. Next to the accepted role of human influence, the impact of natural climate variability is often neglected. In this paper, the impact of rainfall variability on land cover changes (LCC) is investigated for the western escarpment of the Raya Graben along the northern Ethiopian Rift Valley. First, LCC between 2000 and 2014 were analysed at specific time steps using Landsat imagery. Based on the obtained LCC maps, the link was set with rainfall variability, obtained by means of the satellite-derived rainfall estimates (RFEs) from NOAA-CPC. After a correction by the incorporation of local meteorological station data, these estimates prove to be good estimators for the actual amount of precipitation (ρ _RFE1.0 = 0.85, p = 0.00, n = 126; ρ _RFE2.0 = 0.76, p = 0.00, n = 934). By performing several linear regression analyses, a significant positive relationship between the precipitation parameter DIFF 5Y (i.e. the at-RFE pixel scale difference in five-year average annual precipitation for the two periods preceding the land cover maps) and the changes in the woody vegetation cover was found (standardised regression coefficient β = 0.23, p = 0.02, n = 108). Despite the dominance of direct human impact, further greening of the study area can be expected for the future concomitantly to a wetter climate, if all other factors remain constant.     

The use of biomass production and allometric models to estimate carbon sequestration of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Jatropha curcas</Emphasis> L. plantations in western Burkina Faso

The topic of carbon sequestration in plants has received much attention recently due to concerns about global climate change, which is being exacerbated by deforestation. In the early days of the global bioenergy boom, the private sector and non-government organizations enthusiastically promoted the planting of Jatropha curcas L. as a key candidate shrub species for the production of bioenergy in West Africa. This study investigates the aboveground biomass production and carbon sequestration potential of J. curcas, which is already widely cultivated for the production of oil seeds, biodiesel and biokerosene. The specific objective is to use a destructive method to develop allometric prediction equations of the aboveground biomass production of J. curcas plantations. 38 J. curcas shrubs were harvested and weighed in order to estimate biomass production. These data were used to develop allometric equations for the estimation of wood, leaf and total aboveground biomass production. The best-fit models found for estimating shrub component biomass and total aboveground biomass production were of the power form. All of the regression equations relating the prediction of leaf biomass, wood biomass and total aboveground biomass with J. curcas diameter at 20 cm above the ground (D) were statistically significant (p < 0.001) and also presented the highest goodness of fit (high R ²). The aboveground biomass carbon content was estimated using the ash method. Carbon content in leaves and wood was, respectively, 48 and 54 %. The current established allometric equations can be helpful to provide a rapid estimation of the aboveground biomass and C stock for J. curcas biofuel projects in semi-arid conditions.     

Climate adaptation of food value chains: the implications of varying consumer acceptance

Despite there being considerable research and knowledge surrounding the risks of climate change on agricultural productivity, fewer studies have examined risks from a whole-of-chain perspective (i.e. from producer to consumer) and the perceptions of consumers about the climate adaptation strategies of food businesses. This paper presents the findings of a survey of 1532 Australian consumers and how they might respond to a food company’s climate adaptation strategy. Three respondent archetypes, ‘Eco-warriors’ (n = 557), ‘Undecideds’ (n = 600) and ‘Abdicators’ (n = 375), were identified based on their perceptions of risks associated with climate change and their attitudes towards climate adaptation. Further analysis was carried out to understand how each group of respondents would respond to adaptation strategies employed by food companies. Based on the findings of this study, two main challenges are presented for food value chains: (1) translating consumer needs and preferences to niche opportunities arising from adaptation and (2) understanding how best to communicate adaptation benefits based on varying attitudes and information needs. By addressing these challenges, synergies between adaptation goals and competitive strategies in food value chains may be achieved.     

Bacteriological quality of fresh produce and link to water and sanitation service access from informal markets in Mzuzu,Malawi

In 2010, the global burden of foodborne diseases was 33 million Disability-adjusted life years, and 40 % of this burden was for children under 5 years old (Havelaar et al. 2015). Our study site was informal public markets within Mzuzu, Malawi, visited between September and December 2015, during the dry season. From these markets, fresh vegetables, leafy greens (n = 85), tomato (n = 85), and green pepper (n = 35) were analyzed for Escherichia coli. The prevalence of E. coli was highest on leafy greens; it was found in 74 (87 %) of the 85 samples. The prevalence of E. coli in green peppers was found in 2 (6 %) of the 35 samples. The prevalence of E. coli was lowest on tomatoes; it was found in only 1 (1 %) of the 85 samples. The lack of adequate water and sanitation infrastructure in market areas may be contributing to the bacteriological contamination of fresh produce. Providing venders with free access to market area toilets containing hand-washing facilities with soap and wash water with a chlorine solution may reduce bacterial contamination of fresh produce. Universal and sustainable access to water and sanitation services must include informal public market areas to reduce diarrheal diseases transmitted through food within Sub-Saharan Africa countries.     

Knowing the past to forecast the future: a case study on a relictual,endemic species of the SW Alps, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Berardia subacaulis</Emphasis>

Future climate change may lead to a substantial loss of biodiversity, particularly affecting mountain regions, including the Alps. Range-size reduction in high mountain plant species is predicted to be more pronounced for endemic species. Investigating the broad temporal spectrum of range shifts is important for the conservation of biodiversity, since learning how species responded to climate change in the past provides useful insights on how they might react to warming trends in the present and future. Using species distribution models and an ensemble forecasting approach, we explored how the distribution of Berardia subacaulis, a monospecific genus endemic of the south-west Alps, may be affected by past and future projected climate change. During the last interglacial, the habitat suitability of Berardia was lower than present and a progressive increase was observed from the last glacial maximum until now. In the future, Berardia appears to lose more than 80 % of its range, becoming endangered by 2050. Our results suggest that Berardia probably survived past warmer periods in situ, expanding its distributional range during cooler periods. The severe future range contraction predicted for Berardia reflects similar results for other endemic species. As Berardia represents an interesting model species to evaluate the effects of climate warming on range size and shifts, demographic and precise range monitoring may be undertaken on this species.     

Species richness,structure, and conservation of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Nitraria retusa</Emphasis> communities in the coastal salt marshes of Kuwait

Although the coastal salt marshes of Arabian Gulf have been altered extensively by human development activities, there is a paucity of data describing changes in the distribution and abundance of native coastal plant communities. The main objectives of this study are to determine vegetation condition, size structure, and conservation status of Nitraria retusa, a medicinal and salt-tolerant shrub, in disturbed and non-disturbed coastal salt marshes of Kuwait. Size measurements of Nitraria shrubs and nabkas, which are mounds of sediment developed around shrubs, were carried out in 50 quadrats (20 × 20 m²), randomly selected inside and outside Sabah Al-Ahmad Natural Reserve. Species richness and soil properties of nabkas and interspaces, the open areas between the nabkas, were also measured. The results revealed that nabkas of Nitraria in non-disturbed sites are more stable and rich in plant diversity than those in disturbed sites. Mean height and mean canopy diameter of Nitraria shrubs, total plant cover, and species richness are significantly higher in non-disturbed sites than disturbed sites, which indicate the positive influences of conservation for long term on vegetation structure and species richness. The results of soil analyses indicate the important role of nabkas in providing refuges for plant life and species diversity. The present study indicates that more than 50 % of the N. retusa community has been lost during the last few decades. Therefore, N. retusa should be considered an endangered species in Kuwait. The reduction in vegetation cover, a decline in species richness, and the overall degradation of salt marshes are attributed to human development activities along the coast of Kuwait. Effective conservation actions for threatened species in degraded coastal salt marshes of this region include establishment of protective enclosures, prohibitions on development that adversely affects native plant communities, and the planting native salt-tolerant shrubs to facilitate regeneration.     

Effect of Ecological Factors on the Accumulation of Fluorine by Larches, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Larix gmelinii</Emphasis> (Rupr.) Rupr. and <Emphasis Type="Italic">L. sibirica</Emphasis> Ledeb., in Eastern Siberia

The accumulation of fluorine in the trunk wood and branches of Larix gmelinii growing on soils with a naturally increased fluoride content and of L. sibirica growing in a zone affected by atmospheric emissions from an aluminum plant has been studied. Based on results of in vivo and in vitro experiments, it is concluded that larch trees manifest individual differences in their response to fluorine.     

Assessment of hydrothermally modified fly ash for the treatment of methylene blue dye in the textile industry wastewater

Dyes and pigments are one of the major water pollutants and if not discharged properly cause ecological disturbance. Considering this, the current study investigates the application of thermal power plant by-product, i.e., fly ash for the elimination of a hazardous methylene blue dye from its synthetic aqueous solution. Experiments were conducted in batch mode to study the effect of pH, temperature, adsorbent dose and contact time. Highest dye removal (94.3%) was achieved at pH 10 using adsorbent dose of 10 g/L in 90 min of contact time at 40 °C. However, for cost-effective operation at neutral pH and room temperature (30 °C), it yields 89.3% dye removal having similar dose and contact time. Equilibrium isotherms for adsorption were analyzed by Langmuir and Freundlich, Temkin and Dubinin–Radushkevich isotherm equations. The results revealed that the best fit model of adsorption closely followed Langmuir adsorption. Based on adsorption isotherm models, thermodynamics parameters ΔG, ΔH and ΔS were calculated. The negative value of ΔG and ΔH revealed that adsorption process was exothermic, spontaneous and physical. The present work suggests that through simple process hydrothermally modified fly ash has the potential to be used as cost-effective and efficient adsorbent for the treatment of wastewater from textile industries.     

Implications of future bioclimatic shifts on Portuguese forests

As climate is an important driver of vegetation distribution, climate change represents an important challenge to forestry. We (1) identify prevailing bioclimatic conditions for 49 relevant forest species in Portugal and (2) assess future shifts under climate change scenarios. We compute two bioclimatic indices (aridity and thermicity) and a new composite index, at ~1 km spatial resolution, and overlap with the species’ current ranges. Locations are based on a digital inventory, while climate parameters for both recent-past (1950–2000) and future climates (2041–2060), under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are provided by a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations. Results for future scenarios highlight an overall warming and drying trend. Supramediterranean and mesomediterranean climates will be significantly reduced, while thermomediterranean climates will dramatically increase, from their almost absence in current conditions to an area coverage of ~54 % in 2041–2060 for RCP8.5. There is also a clear shift from hyper-humid and humid to sub-humid and from the latter to semi-arid climates (area coverage of ~13 % in 2041–2060 for RCP8.5). Lower thermomediterranean sub-humid to semi-arid zones will cover the southern half of Portugal. These projections identify the most vulnerable (e.g. Betula pubescens, Quercus pyrenaica and Castanea sativa) and the most adapted (e.g. Quercus suber, Q. rotundifolia, Ceratonia siliqua, Pinus pinea, Quercus coccifera) species in future climates. Current bioclimatic zones associated with Eucalyptus globulus and Pinus pinaster, economically relevant species, will be moderately reduced and relocated. Possible adaptation measures are discussed to improve forest resilience to climate change, while maintaining its economic and environmental benefits.     

Interspecific interactions of amphipods <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gammarus lacustris</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gmelinoides fasciatus</Emphasis>

Experimental studies of interactions between two amphipod species (Gmelinoides fasciatus and Gammarus lacustris) showed that predation is the basic mechanism accounting for their mutual exclusion in nature. Mortality from predation among similar-sized specimens of both species at an equal abundance ratio was similar (24–25% in G. lacustris and 27–30% in G. fasciatus). The displacement of G. lacustris by G. fasciatus was observed when the latter was dominant. Adult G. fasciatus and G. lacustris successfully preyed on juveniles of their competitors and did not differ significantly in daily food consumption as a percentage of body weight: 6–24% at a fresh body weight of 18–24 mg in both species. The potential for rapid population growth under new conditions contributed to the success of the invasive Baikal species G. fasciatus in displacing G. lacustris from many water bodies of Russia.     

Co-evolution of wetland landscapes,flooding, and human settlement in the Mississippi River Delta Plain

River deltas all over the world are sinking beneath sea-level rise, causing significant threats to natural and social systems. This is due to the combined effects of anthropogenic changes to sediment supply and river flow, subsidence, and sea-level rise, posing an immediate threat to the 500–1,000 million residents, many in megacities that live on deltaic coasts. The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) provides examples for many of the functions and feedbacks, regarding how human river management has impacted source-sink processes in coastal deltaic basins, resulting in human settlements more at risk to coastal storms. The survival of human settlement on the MRDP is arguably coupled to a shifting mass balance between a deltaic landscape occupied by either land built by the Mississippi River or water occupied by the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an approach to compare 50 % L:W isopleths (L:W is ratio of land to water) across the Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins to test landscape behavior over the last six decades to measure delta instability in coastal deltaic basins as a function of reduced sediment supply from river flooding. The Atchafalaya Basin, with continued sediment delivery, compared to Terrebonne Basin, with reduced river inputs, allow us to test assumptions of how coastal deltaic basins respond to river management over the last 75 years by analyzing landward migration rate of 50 % L:W isopleths between 1932 and 2010. The average landward migration for Terrebonne Basin was nearly 17,000 m (17 km) compared to only 22 m in Atchafalaya Basin over the last 78 years (p < 0.001), resulting in migration rates of 218 m/year (0.22 km/year) and <0.5 m/year, respectively. In addition, freshwater vegetation expanded in Atchafalaya Basin since 1949 compared to migration of intermediate and brackish marshes landward in the Terrebonne Basin. Changes in salt marsh vegetation patterns were very distinct in these two basins with gain of 25 % in the Terrebonne Basin compared to 90 % decrease in the Atchafalaya Basin since 1949. These shifts in vegetation types as L:W ratio decreases with reduced sediment input and increase in salinity also coincide with an increase in wind fetch in Terrebonne Bay. In the upper Terrebonne Bay, where the largest landward migration of the 50 % L:W ratio isopleth occurred, we estimate that the wave power has increased by 50–100 % from 1932 to 2010, as the bathymetric and topographic conditions changed, and increase in maximum storm-surge height also increased owing to the landward migration of the L:W ratio isopleth. We argue that this balance of land relative to water in this delta provides a much clearer understanding of increased flood risk from tropical cyclones rather than just estimates of areal land loss. We describe how coastal deltaic basins of the MRDP can be used as experimental landscapes to provide insights into how varying degrees of sediment delivery to coastal deltaic floodplains change flooding risks of a sinking delta using landward migrations of 50 % L:W isopleths. The nonlinear response of migrating L:W isopleths as wind fetch increases is a critical feedback effect that should influence human river-management decisions in deltaic coast. Changes in land area alone do not capture how corresponding landscape degradation and increased water area can lead to exponential increase in flood risk to human populations in low-lying coastal regions. Reduced land formation in coastal deltaic basins (measured by changes in the land:water ratio) can contribute significantly to increasing flood risks by removing the negative feedback of wetlands on wave and storm-surge that occur during extreme weather events. Increased flood risks will promote population migration as human risks associated with living in a deltaic landscape increase, as land is submerged and coastal inundation threats rise. These system linkages in dynamic deltaic coasts define a balance of river management and human settlement dependent on a certain level of land area within coastal deltaic basins (L).     

Pollination ecology of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Eomecon chionantha</Emphasis> Hance (Papaveraceae), an endemic species in China

Eomecon chionantha Hance, the only species in the genus Eomecon, is an angiosperm species endemic to China. Here we investigated the pollination syndrome, pollinator generalization of E. chionantha. Our results showed that the individual flower longevity of E. chionantha was 3–5 days. The flowering phenology of E. chionantha can be divided into five phases. We found significant differences in the pollination efficiency of the different insects visiting E. chionantha with bees and flies being the most efficient pollinators. This, in addition to floral morphology and phenology, suggests that E. chionantha is generalized on bees and flies and possesses an outcrossing, partially self-compatible and pollinator-dependent breeding system.     

Recent changes in flood preparedness of private households and businesses in Germany

Using the focusing event framework, a comprehensive analysis of private households’ and businesses’ preparedness was undertaken in the aftermath of the 2002 and 2006 flood events on the Elbe River in Germany. In August 2002, preparedness of households (n = 235) and businesses (n = 103) was low: 30% of the households and 54% of the businesses took no precautionary measures before the flood event. Many undertaken emergency measures were ineffective, since only 26% of all households knew how to react when the flood warning came, and only 9% of businesses had an emergency plan in place. Due to this extreme flood, double-loop learning occurred in many households and businesses, so that many did implement precautionary measures. The distribution of adopted precautionary measures for households fits well to Preisendörfer’s low-cost hypothesis, but does not apply for businesses. Only 10% of the households (n = 112), but still 29% of the businesses (n = 41) were unprepared before the flood in 2006. Significant improvement in flood preparedness activities is still necessary. Particularly for businesses, regulatory programs and programs encouraging proactive behaviour should be implemented. The focusing event framework proofed to be a useful tool for a differentiated analysis of the responses to and learning due to a disaster also in the commercial and private sector.     

Factors affecting on the susceptibility of vetch cultivars to infestation by <Emphasis Type="Italic">Acyrthosiphon pisum</Emphasis> L. (Hemiptera,Aphididae)

Current trends in organic agriculture have led to the need of seeking alternative methods of pest control. For that reason the influence of weather conditions, some morphological and chemical traits of common vetch (Vicia sativa) cultivars–“Liya”, “Loryna”, “Villena”, “Moldavskaya 82” (Moldovan cultivars) and “Obrazets 666” (Bulgarian cultivar), and hairy vetch (V. villosa)–“Violeta” and “Viola” [Moldovan cultivars]) on the dynamic and preference of Acyrthosiphon pisum were determined. Moldovan cultivars belonging to V. sativa were distinguished by lower aphid numbers as they had shorter duration of the flowering period unlike the V. villosa cultivars, where that duration was significantly longer. The plant morphological traits as height, branch, flower and leaflet numbers influenced on the aphid density. The aphid density was affected by branch and leaflet numbers more than by height and flower plant. “Villena” had a shorter vegetative period, lowest flower and leaflet numbers as well as low nitrogen and phosphorus content, which resulted in the lowest A. pisum population. The use of vetch cultivars with some characteristics of tolerance would result in a reduction of losses due to pea aphids. That will provide an environmentally safer option for aphid control.     

Variation in the Composition of Secondary Metabolites in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Flavocetraria</Emphasis> Lichens from Western Siberia

The composition and contents of secondary metabolites in Flavocetraria lichens from Eastern Siberia were analyzed using herbarium specimens. Based on the composition of identified metabolites, three F. cucullata chemotypes and two F. nivalis chemotypes were distinguished. Distinct geographic differentiation between the F. cucullata chemotypes was revealed, probably reflecting their adaptation to environmental conditions. The content of usnic acid in F. cucullata thalli was found to correlate with the latitude of growing region. This may be regarded as evidence for a protective role of this metabolite in lichens growing at high latitudes and exposed to excess solar irradiation during the polar day.     

Projected changes in heat wave characteristics in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East

According to observed twentieth century temperature trends and twenty-first century climate model projections, the region that encompasses the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) is identified as a climate change hot spot. We extend previous studies by a comprehensive climatology of heat waves in the EMME based on regional climate model simulations for the recent past and the end of the twenty-first century. A percentile-based definition of heat waves is used to account for local climatic conditions. Spatial patterns of several heat wave properties are assessed and associated with atmospheric circulation regimes over specific locations. To cover a range of possible future climates, we use three SRES emission scenarios. According to our results, all indices that characterize heat wave severity will strongly increase compared with the control period of 1961–1990. The northern part of the EMME could be exposed to increased heat wave amplitudes by 6–10 °C, and the southern part may experience 2–3 months more combined hot days and tropical nights. Heat wave peak temperatures will be higher due to the overall mean warming as well as stronger summer anticyclonic conditions. The projected changes will affect human health and the environment in multiple ways and call for impact studies to support the development of adaptation strategies.     

Gradient Genogeographic Analysis of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus sylvestris</Emphasis> L. Populations in Europe

Gradients of Nei's genetic distances between 15 samples of Pinus sylvestris L. trees were analyzed along three submeridional transects, from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean and Transcaucasia. As a result, distinct chorogenetic differentiation was revealed between the populations of this species growing in climatically specific regions of northern and southern Europe. Considerable Nei's distances (DN = 0.045–0.056) and their gradients, combined with differences in stable phenotypic characters (the composition of monoterpenes and morphological parameters of cones) determined at the Pyrenean and Caucasian mountain borders, suggest that the P. sylvestris species structure includes two South Eurasian subspecies, the Pyrenean P. sylvestris L., ssp. iberica Svoboda and the Transcaucasian P. sylvestris L., ssp. hamata (Stev.) Fomin.     

Quantifying fluctuations in winter productive cropped area in the Central Indian Highlands

The Central Indian Highland landscape (CIHL) represents a complex, diverse, and highly human-modified system. Nearly half the landscape is cropland, yet it hosts 21 protected areas surrounded and connected by forests. Changing farming practices with increasing access to irrigation might alter this intensifying landscape in the near future particularly in light of weather variability. We analyzed a decade of remote sensing data for cropping patterns and climatic factors combined with census data for irrigation and demographic factors to understand winter cropping trajectories in the CIHL. We quantified ‘productive cropped area’ (PCA), defined as the area with planted crop that is green at the peak of the winter growing season. We find three primary trajectories in PCA—increasing, fluctuating, and decreasing. The most dominant trend is fluctuating PCA in two-thirds of the districts, ranging from ~2.11 million to ~3.73 million ha between 2001 and 2013, which is associated with village-level access to irrigation and local labor dynamics. In 58 % of all districts, clay soils were associated with winter cropping (p < 0.05). Increasing irrigation is associated with increased winter PCA in most (94 %) districts (p < 0.00001). We find strong negative association between PCA and land surface temperature (LST) in most (66 %) districts (p < 0.01). LST closely corresponds to daytime mean air temperature (p < 0.001) for available meteorological stations. Fine-scale meteorological and socioeconomic data, however, are needed to further disentangle impacts of these factors on PCA in this landscape.     

Ecological and faunistic characteristics of the leech fauna in the Bukhtarma Reservoir,Eastern Kazakhstan

The taxonomic diversity of the Hirudinea fauna and its dependence on the ecological conditions in the Bukhtarma Reservoir (Eastern Kazakhstan) have been studied. The morphological analysis has shown that these leeches belong to two orders and three families: Rhynchobdellida (families Glossiphoniidae and Piscicolidae) and Arhynchobdellida (family Erpobdellidae). On the whole, eight leech species from five genera (Alboglossiphonia, Helobdella, Theromyzon, Piscicola, and Erpobdella) have been identified. Among them, there are three glossiphoniid species (A. heteroclite, H. stagnalis, and T. tessulatum), two species of piscicolids (Piscicola geometra and Piscicola sp.), and three species of predatory leeches (E. octoculata, E. vilnensis, and Erpobdella sp.). Possible effects of hydrochemical parameters of the aquatic environment on the species diversity have been analyzed. Correlation has been revealed between the abundance of species and the physical and chemical characteristics of the environment.