The Gathering Storm: managing adaptation to environmental change in coastal communities and small islands

Small island communities are inherently coastal communities, sharing many of the attributes and challenges faced by cities, towns and villages situated on the shores of larger islands and continents. In the context of rapidly changing climates, all coastal communities are challenged by their exposure to changing sea levels, to increasingly frequent and severe storms, and to the cumulative effects of higher storm surges. Across the globe, small island developing states, and small islands in larger states, are part of a distinctive set of stakeholders threatened, not only by climate change but also by shifting social, economic, and cultural conditions. C-Change is a collaborative International Community–University Research Alliance (ICURA) project whose goal is to assist participating coastal communities in Canada and the Caribbean region to share experiences and tools that aid adaptation to changes in their physical environment, including sea-level rise and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events associated with climate change. C-Change researchers have been working with eight partner communities to identify threats, vulnerabilities, and risks, to improve understanding of the ramifications of climate change to local conditions and local assets, and to increase capacity for planning for adaptation to their changing world. This paper reports on the knowledge gained and shared and the challenges to date in this ongoing collaboration between science and society.     

Coastal hazard risk assessment for small islands: assessing the impact of climate change and disaster reduction measures on Ebeye (Marshall Islands)

Small island states around the world are among the areas most vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise. In this paper, we present results from an innovative methodology for a quantitative assessment of multiple hazards on coastal risks, driven by different hydro-meteorological events, and including the effects of climate change. Moreover, we take an additional step by including in the methodology the option to assess and compare the effectiveness of possible disaster risk reduction measures. The methodology is applied to a real case study at the island of Ebeye (the Republic of the Marshall Islands). An example is provided in which a rock revetment is implemented as a risk reduction measure for the island. Results show that yearly expected damages may increase, by the end of the century, by a factor of three to four, depending on the sea level rise scenario considered, while the number of yearly affected people may double. Putting a cap on the temperature increase (e.g. 1.5 vs. 2 °C) according to the Paris Agreement may reduce damages and number of affected people by about 20 and 15%, respectively. However, impacts for same warming levels can vary substantially among different emission scenarios. Disaster risk reduction measures can be useful for mitigating risks in current and future situations but should be incorporated within long-term adaptive planning for these islands.     

Risk assessment on disinfection by-products of drinking water of different water sources and disinfection processes

The occurrences of trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetics (HAAs) in the water supply in Beijing and Canada were investigated. The concentrations of THMs and HAAs in Beijing and Canada were below the maximum contaminant levels specified by the USEPA and WHO standards. The multi-pathway risk assessment (assessed through oral ingestion, dermal absorption and inhalation exposure to drinking water) was used to assess the cancer risk and the hazard index of THMs and HAAs from fifteen waterworks in Beijing, China and three treatment plants using different disinfection processes in Canada. Residents in Beijing and residents who were served by three treatment plants using different disinfection processes in Canada had a higher risk of cancer through oral ingestion than through the other two pathways. The cancer risk resulted from disinfection by-products (DBPs) was 8.50E-05(for males), 9.25E-05(for females) in Beijing, China, while it was 1.18E-04, 1.44E-04 in Canada. The risk was higher when water treatment plants used surface water source than when they used ground water source and mixture water source in Beijing. The risk showed different changes in three treatment plants using different disinfection processes in Canada. The lifetime cancer risk for THMs followed the order: Plant 2>Plant 1>Plant 3. And, the lifetime cancer risk for HAAs was: Plant 1>Plant 2>Plant 3.     

Developing an integrated framework to assess agri-food systems and its application in the Ecuadorian Andes

Agri-food systems assessment can be performed following official and alternative framings, each linked to different objects of study, methods of analysis, and policy responses. Alternative frames conceptualize agri-food systems as the integration and interaction of humans and the agro-environment (i.e., as socio-ecological systems). This conceptualization allows studying the cross-level, cross-scale, and nonlinear interactions within and between the components of the system and help assess policy proposals, such as food sovereignty, in a more systemic way. To facilitate this, we link reflections and methodologies from complex system thinking and vulnerability studies applied to agri-food systems to propose an integrated framework of assessment, which links the agroecological context and the social function of agriculture, considering actor’s agency and institutional processes. This framework is suitable to analyze agri-food systems in fragile and marginal environments such as the Andean region. We apply the framework to assess vulnerability of local agri-food systems to global change in the southern Ecuadorian Andes, taking into account the role of peasant institutions (agroecological associations, comunas) and indigenous culture. The framework also allows understanding how agri-food policies change the configuration of agri-food systems and determines whether these changes are consistent with communities’ livelihoods reproduction.     

Social work models for climate adaptation: the case of small islands in the Caribbean

Regional Environmental Change - Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are widely recognised as being very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In some manner, climate change will impact on...     

Developing a sustainability assessment framework for integrated management of water resources systems using distributed zoning and system dynamics approaches

The management of large-scale water resources systems requires including of different stakeholders and users from municipal, agricultural, industrial and environmental sectors. This has baffled the process of decision making for integrated water resource systems. In such systems, the interactions between various stakeholders must be carefully taken into account with the goal of aggregating interests around the sustainability concept. In this study, first, the integrated water resources systems of Big Karun Watershed, Iran, have been modeled using the system dynamics approach. The system dynamics model represents the interactions between different components of the system, including water transfer projects, dams, urban, industry, agriculture and fish farming, and environmental demands. Vensim software has been used for the system dynamics modeling. Vensim simulates the dynamics behavior of the sub-systems and overall performance of the system by comparing the current operation policies with the future management scenarios. A wide range of performance indices, such as quantitative and qualitative water stress, income, cost, and productivity, have been used here to represent different aspects of sustainability goals. Finally, the performance of the systems has been evaluated by developing a sustainability index using distributed zoning model in order to identify proper management policies for this watershed. The results indicate that downstream users demand cannot be fully met by solely considering inter-basin water transfer and agricultural development projects. The sustainable and integrated management of the whole system ties into enhancement in both infrastructure systems and the operation of the whole system. It is expected that the sustainability of the basin improves if a water market schema exists and the gained money would be used to enhance the efficiency of existing irrigation networks.

     

The drivers of risk to water security in Shanghai

Big cities are often said to have big water problems, and Shanghai is no exception. In this paper, we examine and compare the influence of the major factors that give rise to the risk of water insecurity in Shanghai. There is an extensive and diverse literature on these issues, dealt with in isolation, and here, we provide a synthesis of the literature, together with our own assessments and calculations, to assess what are the risks to Shanghai’s water supply and what is our degree of confidence in this assessment. We describe the systems that supply water to the city, and past and future changes in the systems, including changes in the glaciers that supply some water to the river, changes in climate, changes in land use, the construction of dams, and water diversions. We show how, at the same time as Shanghai is increasing its dependence on the Yangtze river, water diversions and sea level rise are increasing the risk that this water will be too saline to consume at certain times of the year. This analysis suggests that most of the major drivers of the risk to water security in Shanghai are within the power of environmental managers to control.     

Adapting to climate change: an integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique

Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US$ 2.3 to US $7.4 billion during 2003?C2050. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key ??no-regret?? adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management and the regional coordination of adaptation strategies.     

Inequality in water supply in India: an assessment using the Gini and Theil indices

Provision of drinking water is considered to be an essential public service. Ensuring adequate water supply remains a challenge in Indian cities that are experiencing rapid growth and often exhibit a mismatch between increasing demands and inadequate supply infrastructure. This study quantifies the existing inequality in water supply within Indian cities through Lorenz curve, Gini coefficient as well as Theil indices. Two types of Theil indices are estimated to gain different perspectives: water supply and population-weighted. Both the Theil indices are disaggregated, according to economic and regional categorisation of the cities, to explore the within- and between-group inequality. The water supply and population-weighted Theil indices provide different outlook of the inequality amongst the cities. But the population-weighted index is often better and pragmatic. Further, the inequality in access to tap water in India is studied by estimating modified Lorenz curves and Theil indices. Again, the Theil indices are decomposed into within and between components according to economic and regional grouping of states. The results suggest that there is disparity in supply of water in India, and infrastructure has to be boosted to meet the growing demand. This study is a step towards quantification of water supply inequality. The approach used in the study can contribute to monitoring of water supply equity as well as in formulating sustainable and equitable water policies.     

INSIGHT: a framework for determining impacts of changes in land and water policies.

CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems is constructing a spatially explicit modelling system capable of exploring alternative land and water policy alternatives against plausible price, cost, and climate scenarios for the next 20 years. INSIGHT will be used to identify the likely impacts of land and water policy options on regional economies and structural adjustment. Flowcharts have been constructed for most of the major crop and pasture and associated economic models for commodities produced in the Lachlan River Catchment of New South Wales. This enabled the most important components and interrelationships within these models to be readily identified. The next step has been to construct models at the regional scale that contain the essential elements of the more-detailed point models. The paper describes the progress to date in describing these models, and how they have been integrated into a coordinated agricultural crop production evaluation system.     

可持续性科学:基于对象—过程—主体的分析模型

2015年9月,联合国通过了未来15年即2016-2030年的全球可持续发展目标(SDGs),这意味着可持续发展将进一步成为指导全球经济社会发展的核心概念和中轴原理。基于这个背景,对可持续发展的理论和方法加强整合性的研究,已经成为具有战略性意义的任务。本文提出基于对象-主体-过程的可持续性科学的分析模型,对理论研究和政策分析中的一些经常碰到的关键问题进行辨析:在对象维度,强调可持续发展是在生物物理极限内的经济社会发展,指出环境、社会、经济三个方面有重要的包含互补关系而不是简单的并列替代关系;在过程维度,强调可持续发展将适应性治理和源头性预防结合起来,运用压力-状态-响应即PSR方法进行全过程管理,而不是应对其中一个环节;在主体维度,强调利益相关者参与影响着可持续发展的理论和实践,不能脱离合作治理研究可持续发展。作为案例应用,讨论了可持续性科学视角下的绿色经济的对象、过程、主体问题及其意义。     

Towards an integrated framework for sustainable innovation

Sustainable innovation represents a current challenge for companies, as firms need to change the way they design, develop, produce and distribute products and services. Therefore, this paper proposes a new framework to be used as a reference guideline for organisations to define a roadmap, specific actions and projects to achieve sustainable innovation, integrating four key enablers. The first enabler is mass customisation (MC), which targets the identification and compliance with customers' specific needs and requirements in order to achieve customer‐driven design. At the same time, the sustainable development (SD) paradigm is taken into consideration, where for any new product or service, companies analyse the benefits, risks and impacts of not only economic factors, but also social and environmental implications. The third enabler is linked to the value network (VN), where innovations happen owing to the active collaboration and distributed knowledge of partners inside and outside the company. Finally, the fourth and last considers the complete product and service life cycle (PSLC), where the three sustainable elements are identified and analysed in each single business process. Two case studies, (footwear sector and water treatment plants) are described to show the validity and successful deployment of the proposed framework in real industrial scenarios.     

Ecological distribution conflicts as forces for sustainability: an overview and conceptual framework

Can ecological distribution conflicts turn into forces for sustainability? This overview paper addresses in a systematic conceptual manner the question of why, through whom, how, and when conflicts over the use of the environment may take an active role in shaping transitions toward sustainability. It presents a conceptual framework that schematically maps out the linkages between (a) patterns of (unsustainable) social metabolism, (b) the emergence of ecological distribution conflicts, (c) the rise of environmental justice movements, and (d) their potential contributions for sustainability transitions. The ways how these four processes can influence each other are multi-faceted and often not a foretold story. Yet, ecological distribution conflicts can have an important role for sustainability, because they relentlessly bring to light conflicting values over the environment as well as unsustainable resource uses affecting people and the planet. Environmental justice movements, born out of such conflicts, become key actors in politicizing such unsustainable resource uses, but moreover, they take sometimes also radical actions to stop them. By drawing on creative forms of mobilizations and diverse repertoires of action to effectively reduce unsustainabilities, they can turn from ‘victims’ of environmental injustices into ‘warriors’ for sustainability. But when will improvements in sustainability be lasting? By looking at the overall dynamics between the four processes, we aim to foster a more systematic understanding of the dynamics and roles of ecological distribution conflicts within sustainability processes.     

Risk management for assuring safe drinking water

Millions of people die every year around the world from diarrheal diseases much of which is caused by contaminated drinking water. By contrast, drinking water safety is largely taken for granted by many citizens of affluent nations. The ability to drink water that is delivered into households without fear of becoming ill may be one of the key defining characteristics of developed nations in relation to the majority of the world. Yet there is well-documented evidence that disease outbreaks remain a risk that could be better managed and prevented even in affluent nations. A detailed retrospective analysis of more than 70 case studies of disease outbreaks in 15 affluent nations over the past 30 years provides the basis for much of our discussion [Hrudey, S.E. and Hrudey, E.J. Safe Drinking Water--Lessons from Recent Outbreaks in Affluent Nations. London, UK: IWA Publishing; 2004.]. The insights provided can assist in developing a better understanding within the water industry of the causes of drinking water disease outbreaks, so that more effective preventive measures can be adopted by water systems that are vulnerable. This preventive feature lies at the core of risk management for the provision of safe drinking water.     

Modelling tritium flux from water to atmosphere: application to the Loire River

Tritium (³H or T) is one of the major radionuclides released by nuclear power plants (NPP) into rivers. However, tritiated water (HTO) flux from water to air is seldom considered when assessing health effects of such releases. The aim of this paper is to present the result of a research program, called LORA, conducted on the Loire River (France). To improve our understanding of HTO flux from surface water to air, three field campaigns were organised during the NPP’s radioactive releases to measure simultaneously the activity concentrations in air on the riverbank, using an innovative system, and in river water. The measurements showed that during radioactive releases, water vapour was enriched in ³H. These results were used to calibrate exchange velocities. The average of these estimated exchange velocities was more than one order of magnitude higher than those calculated in the literature from indoor experiments. The variability of these values was also larger, showing that outdoor studies cover a wide range of conditions influencing HTO flux. No correlation was observed between exchanges velocities and meteorological conditions. However, there was a significant difference between day and night with a higher value observed during the day. Two approaches used to calculate HTO evaporation from water (i.e. the approach based on water evaporation and the approach considering that HTO follows its own concentration gradient) were included in a hydrodynamic model, which was used to evaluate HTO air activity along the Loire River. In conclusion, only the approach considering that HTO follows its own gradient led to a good agreement between measurements and predictions. A one-year simulation was done to estimate the contribution of this process to the dose. Its contribution can be considered as negligible in this case compared to the other pathways such as ingestion of water or foodstuffs.     

Visioneering: an essential framework in sustainability science

The science of sustainability has inevitably emerged as a vibrant field of research and education that transcends disciplinary boundaries and focuses increasingly on understanding the dynamics of social-ecological systems (SES). Yet, sustainability remains an elusive concept, and its nature seems unclear for the most part. In order to truly mobilize people and nations towards sustainability, we place emphasis on the necessity of understanding the nature, cost and principles of ‘visioneering’—the engineering of a clear vision. In SES, purpose is the most important pillar, which gives birth to vision—the key to fulfilling the systems’ mission. Such a systems perspective leads us to redefine resilience as jumping back to the original purpose, for which SES do not necessarily retain the same structures and functioning after disturbances. A sustainable future will require purpose-driven transformation of society at all scales, guided by the best foresight, with insight based on hindsight that science can provide. Visioneering with resilience-based systems thinking will provide communities with a logical framework for understanding their interconnections and purposes, envisioning a sustainable web of life, and eventually dancing with the systems.