Consumptive water footprint and virtual water trade scenarios for China — With a focus on crop production,consumption and trade

The study assesses green and blue water footprints (WFs) and virtual water (VW) trade in China under alternative scenarios for 2030 and 2050, with a focus on crop production, consumption and trade. We consider five driving factors of change: climate, harvested crop area, technology, diet, and population. Four scenarios (S1–S4) are constructed by making use of three of IPCC's shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1–SSP3) and two of IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and taking 2005 as the baseline year. Results show that, across the four scenarios and for most crops, the green and blue WFs per tonne will decrease compared to the baseline year, due to the projected crop yield increase, which is driven by the higher precipitation and CO₂ concentration under the two RCPs and the foreseen uptake of better technology. The WF per capita related to food consumption decreases in all scenarios. Changing to the less-meat diet can generate a reduction in the WF of food consumption of 44% by 2050. In all scenarios, as a result of the projected increase in crop yields and thus overall growth in crop production, China will reverse its role from net VW importer to net VW exporter. However, China will remain a big net VW importer related to soybean, which accounts for 5% of the WF of Chinese food consumption (in S1) by 2050. All scenarios show that China could attain a high degree of food self-sufficiency while simultaneously reducing water consumption in agriculture. However, the premise of realizing the presented scenarios is smart water and cropland management, effective and coherent policies on water, agriculture and infrastructure, and, as in scenario S1, a shift to a diet containing less meat.     

Glacier changes and related glacial lake expansion in the Bhutan Himalaya, 1990–2010

This paper discusses the recent retreat of glaciers and the changes in supraglacial lakes in the Bhutan Himalaya during the last two decades. We calculated the changes in clean and debris-covered glaciers and the formation, disappearance, and expansion of glacial lakes during the beginning of 1990s, 2000s, and 2010 using Landsat TM and ETM+ images. For this purpose, eight river sub-basins namely Wang Chu, Chamkar Chu, Dangme Chu, Kuri Chu, Mangde Chu, Mo Chu, Pho Chu and Northern Basin were considered. A retreating trend was found in the case of clean glaciers. Debris-covered glaciers in this region were found to have undergone an increase of about 29 %, and this increase was partially contributed by those expanded upstream. This increase in the debris-covered area is higher on the southern side of the Bhutan Himalaya. It is found that a number of moraine-dammed glacial lakes were formed during this period and can be potentially dangerous depending on the size, distance from the glacier and altitude. Most of the glacial lake formation and expansion occurred on the southern side of the Bhutan Himalaya.     

Decomposition of factors influencing carbon emissions in the region of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei,based on the perspective of terminal energy consumption

In order to analyze the factors influencing carbon emissions in the region of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei and to explore the pathways to developing a low-carbon economy, this paper begins with the terminal energy consumption of three industries and residential consumption, and constructs an identical equation which is composed of population size, level of economic development, energy intensity, the proportion of energy consumption, energy structure, and the coefficient of carbon emissions. Based on the data of terminal energy consumption during 2000–2012, various factors are analyzed and their contribution is measured by Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI). The results show that the levels of population and economy have a positive driving effect while energy intensity, energy structure, and carbon intensity have a negative driving effect; the proportion of energy consumption had a negative driving effect prior to 2006, then changed to positive. Among suggestions for a low-carbon economy are controlling population size, improving the quality of economic development, supporting research into new energy technology, accelerating regional integration and optimizing industrial structure, and enhancing environmental protection and spreading the concept of a low-carbon economy.     

Using ecosystem services valuation to measure the economic impacts of land-use changes on the Spanish Mediterranean coast (El Maresme, 1850–2010)

Over the last few decades, Mediterranean coastal areas have experienced profound land-use changes due mainly to urban sprawl and reforestation at the expense of former traditional agrarian mosaics and natural resources, such as beach areas or freshwaters streams. These changes have had severe negative consequences on the biodiversity and ecological state (i.e. function) of the territory. The overall objective of this study was to evaluate the economic impacts of these consequences on ecosystem services (ES). By reconstructing the landscape of El Maresme County (Barcelona Province, Spain) for three historical points in time (1850, 1954 and 2010), we were able to assess how these land-use changes have affected the total ecosystem value (TEV) by estimating the ES non-market and market values provided by each land-use through market prices and benefit transfer methods. Results show an important decrease in the value of TEV since the 1950s (23.6 million Euros per year) due to urban sprawl. Despite the major changes occurring between the 1850s and 1950s, non-market values did not alter very much due to the type of agricultural practices. Our results show the necessity to take into account the value of non-market ES when designing land planning policies, and especially those concerning beaches and coastal systems to fully integrate the contribution on natural systems into decision-making processes.     

The impact of summer temperatures and heatwaves on mortality and morbidity in Perth,Australia 1994–2008

Climate change projections have drawn attention to the risks of extreme heat and the importance of public health interventions to minimise the impact. The city of Perth, Western Australia, frequently experiences hot summer conditions, with recent summers showing above average temperatures. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures, mortality, emergency department (ED) presentations and hospital admissions data were acquired for Perth for the period 1994 to 2008. Using an observed/expected analysis, the temperature thresholds for mortality were estimated at 34–36 °C (maximum) and 20 °C (minimum). Generalised estimating equations (GEEs) were used to estimate the percentage increase in mortality and morbidity outcomes with a 10 °C increment in temperature, with adjustment for air pollutants. Effect estimates are reported as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). The health impact of heatwave days (three or more days of ≥ 35 °C) was also investigated. A 9.8% increase in daily mortality (IRR 1.098; 95%CI: 1.007–1.196) was associated with a 10 °C increase in maximum temperature above threshold. Total ED presentations increased by 4.4% (IRR 1.044; 95%CI: 1.033–1.054) and renal-related ED presentations by 10.2% (IRR 1.102; 95%CI: 1.071–1.135) per 10 °C increase in maximum temperature. Heatwave days were associated with increases in daily mortality and ED presentations, while total hospital admissions were decreased on heatwave days. Public health interventions will be increasingly important to minimise the adverse health impacts of hot weather in Perth, particularly if the recent trend of rising average temperatures and more hot days continues as projected.     

Federalism,water, and (de)centralization in Brazil: the case of the São Francisco River water diversion

Regional Environmental Change - The Brazilian Northeastern semi-arid region’s history has been characterized by drought, water scarcity, and poor living conditions. For the last...     

Evolution and frequency (1970–2007) of combined temperature–precipitation modes in the Spanish mountains and sensitivity of snow cover

Snow cover in Spanish mountains is crucial for ensuring water availability in spring and summer months, for the success of winter tourism or for the maintenance of biodiversity in mountain ecosystems. A changing climate may affect the volume of snow cover even in high mountains, where weather conditions are usually favorable for snow accumulation. In this paper, we aim to investigate the evolution (1970–2007) of combined precipitation–temperature modes in the Spanish mountains, and the sensitivity of the snowpack to their occurrence. The climatic database “Spain02” and snow thickness data for Spanish mountains were used for this purpose. Results showed that the frequency of dry-warm and wet-warm days has increased over time in all mountain ranges, while the frequency of the “cold” modes has decreased. The thickness of the snowpack in the Pyrenees has also decreased and its evolution is negatively correlated with the frequency of dry-warm days, and positively correlated with the frequency of dry-cold and wet-cold days. This work constitutes the first approach that relates the evolution of climatic conditions favorable or unfavorable for snow accumulation and the evolution of the snowpack in Spanish mountains.     

Integrating “livelihoods” into integrated water resources management: taking the integration paradigm to its logical next step for developing countries

This paper examines the weaknesses in the current understanding of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) from the perspective of livelihoods. Empowering poor people, reducing poverty, improving livelihoods, and promoting economic growth ought to be the basic objectives of IWRM. But as currently understood and used, IWRM often tends to focus on second-generation issues such as cost recovery, reallocation of water to higher value uses, and environmental conservation. This paper argues that IWRM needs to be placed in the broader context of both modern Integrated Natural Resource Management (INRM) and the livelihoods approach, which together take a holistic and people-centered approach. The paper concludes with an alternative definition of IWRM as involving the promotion of human welfare, especially the reduction of poverty, encouragement of better livelihoods and balanced economic growth through effective democratic development and management of water and other natural resources in an integrated multilevel framework that is as equitable, sustainable, and transparent as possible, and conserves vital ecosystems. Transparent user-friendly information and models for assisting decision making are essential features of livelihood-oriented IWRM.     

The Empirical Analysis of the Impacts of Income Distribution Gap on Consumption Demand: Based on the Statistic Data of Chinese Urban Residents in 2000–2010

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of income distribution gap on consumption demand from a theoretical view, and draws the conclusion that there is an inverse relationship between income distribution gap and consumption demand. Then, the paper finds that the existing widening income distribution gap in China has a negative impact on consumption demand, but this is not the key factor for the insufficient consumption demand because of the low level of per capital income. At last, it suggests that governments should improve the income level of entire residents and adjust income distribution structure simultaneously.     

Vegetation dynamics and climate change on the Loess Plateau,China: 1982–2011

Monitoring the dynamics of vegetation growth and its response to climate change is important to understand the mechanisms underlying ecosystem behaviors. This study investigated the relationship between vegetation growth and climate change during the growing seasons on the Loess Plateau in China by analyzing the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from the Land Long Term Data Record dataset from 1982 to 2011. Results showed that growing-season NDVI had increased at an annual rate of 0.0028, particularly in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions. By contrast, the NDVI first increased from 1982 to 1994 (0.0013 year^?1, P < 0.05) and then decreased from 1994 to 2011 (0.0016 year^?1, P < 0.05) in the arid region. Temperature had a positive effect on NDVI in most periods within and across seasons in the semi-humid region but had no significant effect in the arid region. Precipitation had a positive effect on NDVI in the arid region in summer and in the semi-arid region in autumn. Summer precipitation was important for autumn vegetation growth in the arid region, whereas summer temperature increased autumn vegetation growth in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions. Further analyses supported the lag-time effects of climate change on vegetation growth on the Loess Plateau. Precipitation shifts had 15- to 18-month time lag effects on vegetation growth in the three climate regions. Vegetation NDVI had a 17-month lag response to temperature in the semi-arid region. Human activities should not be neglected in analyzing the relationship between vegetation growth and climate change on the Loess Plateau.     

Effect of working time on environmental pressures: empirical evidence from EU-15, 1970–2010

There is growing interest in the correlation between working time and environmental pressures, but prior empirical studies mostly focused on static methodologies. This article used dynamic panel regression approaches to examine and compare the relationship among western, southern, and northern European countries over the period 1970–2010, and proved the existence of strongly significant relationships in all models. Furthermore, this article detected the relationship between working hours and environmental indicators (carbon emission and energy use) at different phases. We contribute to a further understanding of the environmental effects of the working time reduction policy by comparing the differences among various periods and country groups in a system generalized method of moments (GMM) dynamic framework.     

The impact of economic,social, and political globalization and democracy on life expectancy in low-income countries: are sustainable development goals contradictory?

The 17 Sustainable Development Goals announced by the United Nations are important guides for the development processes of developing countries. However, achieving all of these goals is only possible if the goals are consistent with each other. It has been observed in the literature that possible contradictions between these goals are ignored. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate whether two sustainable development goals (SDGs) of the UN are contradictory or supporting each other in low-income countries. These SDGs are “Good Health and Well-Being” (SDG3) and “Partnerships for the Goals” (SDG17). For this purpose, the role of globalization and democracy in life expectancy is empirically investigated in 16 low-income countries over the period 1970–2017. While globalization has been used as an indicator of the partnership between countries, democracy has been used as an indicator of accountability and cooperation between governments and societies. According to estimations of the continuous-updated fully modified (CUP-FM) and bias-adjusted ordinary least squares (BA-OLS), globalization and its subcomponents such as economic, social, and political globalization affect life expectancy positively. Democracy also increases life expectancy in those countries. The GDP per capita is also used as a control variable. Our results show that a higher level of per capita income is positively associated with higher levels of life expectancy. In conclusion, no contradiction was found between SDG3 and SDG17 in those countries. Achieving a healthier society requires economic, social, and political integration between governments and societies.

     

Analysis and Modeling on the Spatial Structure of Urban Land Use: A Case of Jinan, China

Based on the data of urban land use obtained by remote sensing interpretation from aero images in 1986 and 2004, the spatial structure of Jinan is studied in this paper with the method of Geographic Information System (GIS). According to the proportion of land for residence, industry and commerce, the urban district can be distinguished into three rings. Compared with the traditional theory of the ring structure in Western coun- tries, they have many distinctive characteristics. The main func- tions of the inner ring include residence, business and banking, but the proportion of residential land (more than 50%) is considerably higher than that of the cities in Western countries. The land proportion for residence and industry in the intermediate ring is equal on the whole. The main land of the outside ring is for industrial use. From 1986 to 2004, great changes have taken place on the land proportion of different types of use. In the inner ring, the land for residential and industrial use has shrunk much while the land for commercial use has increased. In the intermediate ring, the changes of the three types of land use were not very much and the temporal variation was relatively stable. On the contrary, the structure in the outside ring varies acutely. Though most of it is also for industrial use, the proportion of residential land has in- creased much. The three rings can also be divided into several sectors respectively, according to the function of land use clusters. New trends and mechanisms of the changes of land use impacting the urban structure were proposed in the end of the paper.     

Evolution and interaction of ecological civilization construction pattern from the perspective of path dependence–based on the panel data of Jiangsu Province,China

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Ecological civilization is an advanced form after industrial civilization. Improving China's ecological civilization system will provide developing...     

Blood levels of dioxins,furans, dioxin-like PCBs,and TEQs in general populations: A review, 1989–2010

A comprehensive worldwide literature review of blood levels of dioxins and dioxin-like compounds in non-exposed adult general populations was performed. The studies published in 1989–2010 reporting information on polychlorinated dibenzo-para-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), non-ortho-PCBs (nPCBs), mono-ortho-PCBs (mPCBs) levels and Toxic Equivalencies (TEQs, a summary weighted measure of their combined toxicity) were reviewed. TEQs were calculated using as standard the most recent WHO 2005 reevaluation of Toxic Equivalency Factors (TEFs). Weighted multiple regression analyses adjusted for year, subject's age, type of sample analyzed, method used for values below detection limit, and central tendency measure used were performed for each congener and standardized TEQs (log-transformed). We identified 187 studies regarding 29,687 subjects of 26 countries. Year of blood collection ranged from 1985 to 2008. The studies reporting congener levels 161. In adjusted analyses, European countries showed higher levels of most dioxin-like congeners and TEQs. A strong positive association of subjects' age with most congeners and with TEQ values was found, confirming previous findings. Significant decreases over time (1985–2008) were documented for PCCDs, PCDFs, and TEQs including their contributions. No significant decrease was found for non-ortho-PCBs, notably PCB 126. Only some mono-ortho-PCBs showed clear significant declines. Accordingly, TEQs including only PCB contribution did not decrease over time. In interpreting these findings, it should be considered that for dioxin-like PCBs the analysis period was shorter (17 years), since these compounds were first measured in 1992.     

Inferring the 1985–2014 impact of mobile phone use on selected brain cancer subtypes using Bayesian structural time series and synthetic controls

BackgroundMobile phone use has been increasing rapidly in the past decades and, in parallel, so has the annual incidence of certain types of brain cancers. However, it remains unclear whether this correlation is coincidental or whether use of mobile phones may cause the development, promotion or progression of specific cancers. The 1985–2014 incidence of selected brain cancer subtypes in England were analyzed and compared to counterfactual ‘synthetic control’ timeseries.MethodsAnnual 1985–2014 incidence of malignant glioma, glioblastoma multiforme, and malignant neoplasms of the temporal and parietal lobes in England were modelled based on population-level covariates using Bayesian structural time series models assuming 5,10 and 15 year minimal latency periods. Post-latency counterfactual ‘synthetic England’ timeseries were nowcast based on covariate trends. The impact of mobile phone use was inferred from differences between measured and modelled time series.ResultsThere is no evidence of an increase in malignant glioma, glioblastoma multiforme, or malignant neoplasms of the parietal lobe not predicted in the ‘synthetic England’ time series. Malignant neoplasms of the temporal lobe however, have increased faster than expected. A latency period of 10 years reflected the earliest latency period when this was measurable and related to mobile phone penetration rates, and indicated an additional increase of 35% (95% Credible Interval 9%:59%) during 2005–2014; corresponding to an additional 188 (95%CI 48–324) cases annually.ConclusionsA causal factor, of which mobile phone use (and possibly other wireless equipment) is in agreement with the hypothesized temporal association, is related to an increased risk of developing malignant neoplasms in the temporal lobe.     

Population dynamics,delta vulnerability and environmental change: comparison of the Mekong,Ganges–Brahmaputra and Amazon delta regions

Tropical delta regions are at risk of multiple threats including relative sea level rise and human alterations, making them more and more vulnerable to extreme floods, storms, surges, salinity intrusion, and other hazards which could also increase in magnitude and frequency with a changing climate. Given the environmental vulnerability of tropical deltas, understanding the interlinkages between population dynamics and environmental change in these regions is crucial for ensuring efficient policy planning and progress toward social and ecological sustainability. Here, we provide an overview of population trends and dynamics in the Ganges–Brahmaputra, Mekong and Amazon deltas. Using multiple data sources, including census data and Demographic and Health Surveys, a discussion regarding the components of population change is undertaken in the context of environmental factors affecting the demographic landscape of the three delta regions. We find that the demographic trends in all cases are broadly reflective of national trends, although important differences exist within and across the study areas. Moreover, all three delta regions have been experiencing shifts in population structures resulting in aging populations, the latter being most rapid in the Mekong delta. The environmental impacts on the different components of population change are important, and more extensive research is required to effectively quantify the underlying relationships. The paper concludes by discussing selected policy implications in the context of sustainable development of delta regions and beyond.     

Novel exposure biomarkers of N,N-diethyl-m-toluamide (DEET): Data from the 2007–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

BackgroundN,N-diethyl-m-toluamide (DEET) is a widely used insect repellent in the United States.ObjectivesTo assess exposure to DEET in a representative sample of persons 6 years and older in the U.S. general population from the 2007–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.MethodsWe analyzed 5348 urine samples by using online solid-phase extraction coupled to isotope dilution-high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. We used regression models to examine associations of various demographic parameters with urinary concentrations of DEET biomarkers.ResultsWe detected DEET in ~ 3% of samples and at concentration ranges (> 0.08 μg/L–45.1 μg/L) much lower than those of 3-(diethylcarbamoyl)benzoic acid (DCBA) (> 0.48 μg/L–30,400 μg/L) and N,N-diethyl-3-hydroxymethylbenzamide (DHMB) (> 0.09 μg/L–332 μg/L). DCBA was the most frequently detected metabolite (~ 84%). Regardless of survey cycle and the person's race/ethnicity or income, adjusted geometric mean concentrations of DCBA were higher in May–Sep than in Oct–Apr. Furthermore, non-Hispanic whites in the warm season were more likely than in the colder months [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 10.83; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.28–35.79] and more likely than non-Hispanic blacks (OR = 3.45; 95% CI, 1.51–7.87) to have DCBA concentrations above the 95th percentile.ConclusionsThe general U.S. population, including school-age children, is exposed to DEET. However, reliance on DEET as the sole urinary biomarker would likely underestimate the prevalence of exposure. Instead, oxidative metabolites of DEET are the most adequate exposure biomarkers. Differences by season of the year based on demographic variables including race/ethnicity likely reflect different lifestyle uses of DEET-containing products.