A review of vulnerability indicators for deltaic social–ecological systems

The sustainability of deltas worldwide is under threat due to the consequences of global environmental change (including climate change) and human interventions in deltaic landscapes. Understanding these systems is becoming increasingly important to assess threats to and opportunities for long-term sustainable development. Here, we propose a simplified, yet inclusive social–ecological system (SES)-centered risk and vulnerability framework and a list of indicators proven to be useful in past delta assessments. In total, 236 indicators were identified through a structured review of peer-reviewed literature performed for three globally relevant deltas—the Mekong, the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and the Amazon. These are meant to serve as a preliminary “library” of potential indicators to be used for future vulnerability assessments. Based on the reviewed studies, we identified disparities in the availability of indicators to populate some of the vulnerability domains of the proposed framework, as comprehensive social–ecological assessments were seldom implemented in the past. Even in assessments explicitly aiming to capture both the social and the ecological system, there were many more indicators for social susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacities as compared to those relevant for characterizing ecosystem susceptibility or robustness. Moreover, there is a lack of multi-hazard approaches accounting for the specific vulnerability profile of sub-delta areas. We advocate for more comprehensive, truly social–ecological assessments which respond to multi-hazard settings and recognize within-delta differences in vulnerability and risk. Such assessments could make use of the proposed framework and list of indicators as a starting point and amend it with new indicators that would allow capturing the complexity as well as the multi-hazard exposure in a typical delta SES.     

A conceptual framework for analyzing deltas as coupled social–ecological systems: an example from the Amazon River Delta

At the nexus of watersheds, land, coastal areas, oceans, and human settlements, river delta regions pose specific challenges to environmental governance and sustainability. Using the Amazon Estuary-Delta region (AD) as our focus, we reflect on the challenges created by the high degree of functional interdependencies shaping social–ecological dynamics of delta regions. The article introduces the initial design of a conceptual framework to analyze delta regions as coupled social–ecological systems (SES). The first part of the framework is used to define a delta SES according to a problem and/or collective action dilemma. Five components can be used to define a delta SES: social–economic systems, governance systems, ecosystems-resource systems, topographic-hydrological systems, and oceanic-climate systems. These components are used in association with six types of telecoupling conditions: socio-demographic, economic, governance, ecological, material, and climatic-hydrological. The second part of the framework presents a strategy for the analysis of collective action problems in delta regions, from sub-delta/local to delta to basin levels. This framework is intended to support both case studies and comparative analysis. The article provides illustrative applications of the framework to the AD. First, we apply the framework to define and characterize the AD as coupled SES. We then utilize the framework to diagnose an example of collective action problem related to the impacts of urban growth, and urban and industrial pollution on small-scale fishing resources. We argue that the functional interdependencies characteristic of delta regions require new approaches to understand, diagnose, and evaluate the current and future impacts of social–ecological changes and potential solutions to the sustainability dilemmas of delta regions.     

Coevolving Ostrom’s social–ecological systems (SES) framework and sustainability science: four key co-benefits

Research on social–ecological systems (SES) is scattered across many disciplines and perspectives. As a result, much of the knowledge generated between different communities is not comparable, mutually aggregate or easily communicated to nonspecialists despite common goals to use academic knowledge for advancing sustainability. This article proposes a conceptual pathway to address this challenge through outlining how the SES research contributions of sustainability science and researchers using Elinor Ostrom’s diagnostic SES framework (SESF) can integrate and co-benefit from explicitly interlinking their development. From a review of the literature, I outline four key co-benefits from their potential to interlink in the following themes: (1) coevolving SES knowledge types, (2) guiding primary research and assessing sustainability, (3) building a boundary object for transdisciplinary sustainability science, and (4) facilitating comparative analysis. The origins of the SESF include seminal empirical work on common property theory, self-organization, and coupled SES interactions. The SESF now serves as a template for diagnosing sustainability challenges and theorizing explanatory relationships on SES components, interactions, and outcomes within and across case studies. Simultaneously, sustainability science has proposed transdisciplinary research agendas, sustainability knowledge types, knowledge coproduction, and sustainability assessment tools to advance transformative change processes. Key challenges for achieving co-beneficial developments in both communities are discussed in relation to each of the four themes. Evident pathways for advancing SES research are also presented along with a guideline for designing SES research within this co-aligned vision.     

Community-based scenario planning: a process for vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning to social–ecological change in coastal communities

The current and projected impacts of climate change make understanding the environmental and social vulnerability of coastal communities and the planning of adaptations important international goals and national policy initiatives. Yet, coastal communities are concurrently experiencing numerous other social, political, economic, demographic and environmental changes or stressors that also need to be considered and planned for simultaneously to maintain social and environmental sustainability. There are a number of methods and processes that have been used to study vulnerability and identify adaptive response strategies. This paper describes the stages, methods and results of a modified community-based scenario planning process that was used for vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning within the context of multiple interacting stressors in two coastal fishing communities in Thailand. The four stages of community-based scenario planning included: (1) identifying the problem and purpose of scenario planning; (2) exploring the system and types of change; (3) generating possible future scenarios; and (4) proposing and prioritizing adaptations. Results revealed local perspectives on social and environmental change, participant visions for their local community and the environment, and potential actions that will help communities to adapt to the changes that are occurring. Community-based scenario planning proved to have significant potential as an anticipatory action research process for incorporating multiple stressors into vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning. This paper reflects on the process and outcomes to provide insights and suggest changes for future applications of community-based scenario planning that will lead to more effective learning, innovation and action in communities and related social–ecological systems.     

Prepared for climate change? A method for the ex-ante assessment of formal responsibilities for climate adaptation in specific sectors

Climate change-related risks encompass an intensification of extreme weather events, such as fluvial and pluvial flooding, droughts, storms, and heat stress. A transparent and comprehensive division of responsibilities is a necessary—but not the only—precondition for being prepared for climate change. In this paper, we present, and preliminarily test, a method for the ex-ante assessment of the division of public and private responsibilities for climate adaptation in terms of comprehensiveness, transparency, legitimacy, and effectiveness. This method proofs particularly suited for the assessment of adaptation responsibilities in combination with a sectoral approach. It helps identifying a number of shortcomings in divisions of responsibilities for climate adaptation. We conclude that this method is useful as a diagnostic tool for identifying the expected climate change preparedness level, and recommend to combine this with ex-post analyses of real-life cases of extreme events in order to assess the actual preparedness for climate change. Besides the scientific purpose of providing a generally applicable assessment method, with this method, we also intend to assist policy-makers in developing and implementing adaptation plans at various levels.     

Application of a tri-capital community resilience framework for assessing the social–ecological system sustainability of community-based forest management in the Philippines

This study proposes and empirically tests a framework that integrates the concepts of community resilience and social–ecological system (SES) resilience through community forestry case studies. The framework provides a possible approach for assessing community resilience based on the development and allocation of socio-cultural, economic, and natural capital of individual households within a given forest community. Furthermore, aspects of SES resilience and system dynamics are used to define the potential state thresholds of community resilience. This exploratory attempt to quantify community resilience, using the proposed framework, aims to advance understanding of the conceptual overlaps of SES and community resilience as applied to forestry management. We consider community forestry groups as SES examples in which the community is an important stakeholder in managing natural forest capital. We selected pioneer communities under the community-based forest management (CBFM) Program in the Philippines as our case studies. We found that, on average, CBFM group members demonstrated moderate levels of resilience according to their acquired levels of capital. Although economic capital remained the weakest capital, the CBFM program had a positive effect in increasing the socio-cultural and natural capital of an entire community.     

How do soil and water conservation practices influence climate change impacts on potato production? Evidence from eastern Canada

We used a stochastic production function method together with a farm-level dataset covering 18 farms over a 23-year period to assess the role that soil and water conservation practices play in affecting the climate change impacts on potato yield in northwestern New Brunswick, Canada. Our analysis accounted for the yield effects of farm inputs, farm technologies, farm-specific factors, seasonal climatic variables, soil and water conservation practices, and a series of interaction terms between soil and water conservation practices and climatic variables. Regression results were used in combination with three climate change scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (A2, A1B, B1) and four general circulation model predictions over three 30-year time periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) to estimate a range of potato yield projections over these time periods. Results show that accounting for soil and water conservation practices in climate–yield relationships increased the impacts of climate change on potato yield, with yield increases of up to 38 % by the 2071–2100 period. These findings provide evidence that adoption of soil and water conservation practices can help boost potato production in a changing Canadian climate.     

Vegetation dynamics and climate change on the Loess Plateau,China: 1982–2011

Monitoring the dynamics of vegetation growth and its response to climate change is important to understand the mechanisms underlying ecosystem behaviors. This study investigated the relationship between vegetation growth and climate change during the growing seasons on the Loess Plateau in China by analyzing the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from the Land Long Term Data Record dataset from 1982 to 2011. Results showed that growing-season NDVI had increased at an annual rate of 0.0028, particularly in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions. By contrast, the NDVI first increased from 1982 to 1994 (0.0013 year^?1, P < 0.05) and then decreased from 1994 to 2011 (0.0016 year^?1, P < 0.05) in the arid region. Temperature had a positive effect on NDVI in most periods within and across seasons in the semi-humid region but had no significant effect in the arid region. Precipitation had a positive effect on NDVI in the arid region in summer and in the semi-arid region in autumn. Summer precipitation was important for autumn vegetation growth in the arid region, whereas summer temperature increased autumn vegetation growth in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions. Further analyses supported the lag-time effects of climate change on vegetation growth on the Loess Plateau. Precipitation shifts had 15- to 18-month time lag effects on vegetation growth in the three climate regions. Vegetation NDVI had a 17-month lag response to temperature in the semi-arid region. Human activities should not be neglected in analyzing the relationship between vegetation growth and climate change on the Loess Plateau.     

Community-led reforestation: cultivating the potential of virtuous cycles to confer resilience in disaster disrupted social–ecological systems

Human relationships with trees can result in widespread citizen-led reforestation projects that catalyze social–biological-reinforcing feedback loops and set in motion virtuous cycles that restore perturbed social–ecological systems. These virtuous cycles confer resilience in such systems that counterbalance the tendency for vicious cycles to be triggered by destructive behavior and neglect. Given this argument, we ask: how do we cultivate the potential for virtuous cycles to confer resilience in social–ecological systems? To answer this question, we review feedback mechanisms and identify virtuous cycles catalyzed via ecological restoration to highlight their importance to the resilience of social–ecological systems. We then conceptualize these cycles with a causal map (also known as a causal loop diagram) illustrating an example where restoration activities and civic ecology practices contributed to feedbacks and virtuous cycles. Following from this example, we discuss approaches for recognizing and investing in virtuous cycles that accompany social–ecological systems and outline approaches for managing such cycles.     

Fishers’ perceptions of climate change,impacts on their livelihoods and adaptation strategies in environmental change hotspots: a case of Lake Wamala,Uganda

Fisheries resources support livelihoods of fishing communities but are threatened by over-exploitation, habitat degradation, pollution, invasive species and climate change. Unlike the other threats, climate change has received limited consideration and reducing its risks requires appropriate adaptation strategies. This study used quantitative and qualitative methods to generate knowledge on fishers’ perceptions of climate change, changes in climate variables and their impacts on livelihoods, adaptation strategies, constraints to adaptation and required interventions to promote adaptation strategies that would enable fishers to build resilience to sustain their livelihoods. We found that fishers were aware of changes in climate conditions manifested by unpredictable seasons, floods and droughts. Fishing remained the main livelihood activity. However, the dominance of fishes had changed from Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus L.) to the African catfish (Clarias gariepinus Burchell). Floods and droughts were associated with damage to gears, boats, landing sites and changes in fish catches and sizes, income from fishing and fish consumption. The fishers adapted by increasing time on fishing grounds and changing target species and fishing gear among other things. Some innovative fishers diversified to high-value crops and livestock. This increased their income beyond what was solely earned from fishing which provided an incentive for some of them to quit fishing. Livelihood diversification was enhanced by use of communications technology, membership of social groups, increasing fishing days and fishing experience. Adaptation was, however, constrained by limited credit, awareness and access to land, which require interventions such as improving access to credit, irrigation facilities, appropriate planting materials and awareness raising. We identified adaptation strategies, which if promoted and their constraints addressed, could increase resilience of fishers to the influence of climate change and sustain their livelihoods.     

A people‐centred perspective on climate change,environmental stress,and livelihood resilience in Bangladesh

The Ganges–Brahmaputra delta enables Bangladesh to sustain a dense population, but it also exposes people to natural hazards. This article presents findings from the Gibika project, which researches livelihood resilience in seven study sites across Bangladesh. This study aims to understand how people in the study sites build resilience against environmental stresses, such as cyclones, floods, riverbank erosion, and drought, and in what ways their strategies sometimes fail. The article applies a new methodology for studying people’s decision making in risk-prone environments: the personal Livelihood History interviews (N = 28). The findings show how environmental stress, shocks, and disturbances affect people’s livelihood resilience and why adaptation measures can be unsuccessful. Floods, riverbank erosion, and droughts cause damage to agricultural lands, crops, houses, and properties. People manage to adapt by modifying their agricultural practices, switching to alternative livelihoods, or using migration as an adaptive strategy. In the coastal study sites, cyclones are a severe hazard. The study reveals that when a cyclone approaches, people sometimes choose not to evacuate: they put their lives at risk to protect their livelihoods and properties. Future policy and adaptation planning must use lessons learned from people currently facing environmental stress and shocks.     

Barriers and opportunities for adapting to climate change on the North Coast of São Paulo,Brazil

Regional Environmental Change - This paper examines barriers and opportunities for climate change adaptation in an urban coastal setting where adaptation is in its infancy. It draws on a diagnostic...     

Regional integration and local change: road paving, community connectivity, and social–ecological resilience in a tri-national frontier, southwestern Amazonia

Initiatives for global economic integration increasingly prioritize new infrastructure in relatively remote regions. Such regions have relatively intact ecosystems and provide valuable ecosystem services, which has stimulated debates over the wisdom of new infrastructure. Most prior research on infrastructure impacts highlights economic benefits, ecological damage, or social conflicts. We suggest a more integrative approach to regional integration by appropriating the concepts of connectivity from transport geography and social?Cecological resilience from systems ecology. Connectivity offers a means of observing the degree of integration between locations, and social?Cecological resilience provides a framework to simultaneously consider multiple consequences of regional integration. Together, they offer a spatial analysis of resilience that considers multiple dimensions of infrastructure impacts. Our study case is the southwestern Amazon, a highly biodiverse region which is experiencing integration via paving of the Inter-Oceanic Highway. Specifically, we focus on the ??MAP?? region, a tri-national frontier where Bolivia, Brazil, and Peru meet and which differs in the extent of highway paving. We draw on a tri-national survey of more than 100 resource-dependent rural communities across the MAP frontier and employ indicators for multiple dimensions of connectivity and social?Cecological resilience. We pursue a comparative analysis among regions and subregions with differing degrees of community connectivity to markets in order to evaluate their social?Cecological resilience. The findings indicate that connectivity and resilience have a multifaceted relationship, such that greater community connectivity corresponds to greater resilience in some respects but not others. We conclude by noting how our findings integrate those from heretofore largely disparate literatures on infrastructure. The integration of transport geography with resilience thought thus stands to advance the study of infrastructure impacts.     

Climate change and South Africa’s commercial farms: an assessment of impacts on specialised horticulture,crop, livestock and mixed farming systems

South Africa, a main food exporter in SADC, is characterised by a dual agricultural economy consisting of a well-developed commercial sector and smallholder, often subsistence, farming. Using the Ricardian cross-sectional framework, we examine the impact of climate change on a nationwide sample of crop, horticulture, livestock and mixed commercial farming systems. We find that a simultaneous decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature will reduce productivity; and that an increase in temperature alone negatively affects farm output more than a decrease in precipitation. One of the most robust findings is the difference in the extent to which different commercial production systems will be impacted. That is, the results indicate that the strongest impact will be amongst specialised commercial crop farming system. In contrast, mixed farming systems appear to be the least vulnerable. This finding is consistent with studies on small-holder farms in sub-Saharan Africa. Hence, it appears that despite the likely benefits derived from economies of scale, commercial farms are, somewhat, equally vulnerable to climate change. Further, a province-wise assessment revealed that areas that already face disadvantageous climatic conditions will become even less productive. Overall, the findings suggest that practicing mixed farming methods will strengthen the resilience of commercial farms to climate change and that access to extensions—insurance and irrigation—is likely to reduce the risks.     

Changing patterns of the temperature–mortality association by time and location in the US,and implications for climate change

The shape of the non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality varies among cities with different climatic conditions. There has been little examination of how these curves change over space and time. We evaluated the short-term effects of hot and cold temperatures on daily mortality over six 7-year periods in 211 US cities, comprising over 42 million deaths. Cluster analysis was used to group the cities according to similar temperatures and relative humidity. Temperature–mortality functions were calculated using B-splines to model the heat effect (lag 0) and the cold effect on mortality (moving average lags 1–5). The functions were then combined through meta-smoothing and subsequently analyzed by meta-regression. We identified eight clusters. At lag 0, Cluster 5 (West Coast) had a RR of 1.14 (95% CI: 1.11,1.17) for temperatures of 27 °C vs 15.6 °C, and Cluster 6 (Gulf Coast) has a RR of 1.04 (95% CI: 1.03,1.05), suggesting that people are acclimated to their respective climates. Controlling for cluster effect in the multivariate-meta regression we found that across the US, the excess mortality from a 24-h temperature of 27 °C decreased over time from 10.6% to 0.9%. We found that the overall risk due to the heat effect is significantly affected by summer temperature mean and air condition usage, which could be a potential predictor in building climate-change scenarios.     

A landscape approach for quantifying land-use and land-cover change (1976–2006) in middle Himalaya

With the growth of socio-economic activities, natural land cover is being modified for various development purposes. This has increased the rate of land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC), and thus, affecting the overall ecosystem health. LULCC mapping is an important tool for land management and monitoring. This paper presents LULCC analysis using remotely sensed data integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS). LULCC was quantified using Markov analysis, and the associated probability of change for each class was predicted. Landscape metrics were also used to quantify the spatial and temporal changes in the area. The unique combination of these techniques support the conclusion that with increasing human activities, (1) the deforestation rate has increased, (2) forested areas have become increasingly fragmented, and (3) the forested areas have the highest probability of getting converted to some other land-use and land-cover (LULC) class.     

Climate change adaptation and mitigation in smallholder crop–livestock systems in sub-Saharan Africa: a call for integrated impact assessments

African mixed crop–livestock systems are vulnerable to climate change and need to adapt in order to improve productivity and sustain people’s livelihoods. These smallholder systems are characterized by high greenhouse gas emission rates, but could play a role in their mitigation. Although the impact of climate change is projected to be large, many uncertainties persist, in particular with respect to impacts on livestock and grazing components, whole-farm dynamics and heterogeneous farm populations. We summarize the current understanding on impacts and vulnerability and highlight key knowledge gaps for the separate system components and the mixed farming systems as a whole. Numerous adaptation and mitigation options exist for crop–livestock systems. We provide an overview by distinguishing risk management, diversification and sustainable intensification strategies, and by focusing on the contribution to the three pillars of climate-smart agriculture. Despite the potential solutions, smallholders face major constraints at various scales, including small farm sizes, the lack of response to the proposed measures and the multi-functionality of the livestock herd. Major institutional barriers include poor access to markets and relevant knowledge, land tenure insecurity and the common property status of most grazing resources. These limit the adoption potential and hence the potential impact on resilience and mitigation. In order to effectively inform decision-making, we therefore call for integrated, system-oriented impact assessments and a realistic consideration of the adoption constraints in smallholder systems. Building on agricultural system model development, integrated impact assessments and scenario analyses can inform the co-design and implementation of adaptation and mitigation strategies.F