Costs and benefits of adapting spatial planning to climate change: lessons learned from a large-scale urban development project in the Netherlands

Climate change increases the vulnerability of low-lying coastal areas. Careful spatial planning can reduce this vulnerability, provided that decision-makers have insight into the costs and benefits of adaptation options. This paper addresses the question which adaptation options are suitable, from an economic perspective, to adapt spatial planning to climate change at a regional scale. We apply social cost–benefit analysis to assess the net benefits of adaptation options that deal with the impacts of climate change-induced extreme events. From the methods applied and results obtained, we also aim at learning lessons for assessing climate adaptation options. The case study area, the Zuidplaspolder, is a large-scale urban development project in the Netherlands. The costs as well as the primary and secondary benefits of adaptation options relating to spatial planning (e.g. flood-proof housing and adjusted infrastructure) are identified and where possible quantified. Our results show that three adaptation options are not efficient investments, as the investment costs exceed the benefits of avoided damages. When we focus on ‘climate proofing’ the total area of the Zuidplaspolder, when the costs and benefits of all the presented adaptation options are considered together, the total package has a positive net present value. The study shows that it is possible to anticipate climate change impacts and assess the costs and benefits of adjusting spatial planning. We have learned that scenario studies provide a useful tool but that decision-making under climate change uncertainty also requires insight into the probabilities of occurrence of weather extremes in the future.     

Climatic changes and their impact on socio-economic sectors in the Bhutan Himalayas: an implementation strategy

This paper contributes to an enhanced understanding of present climatic conditions, observed climate trends and regional climate vulnerability of the Bhutan Himalayas. Bhutan’s complex, often high-altitude terrain and the severe impact of the Indian summer monsoon leads to a strong exposure of the countries’ key economic sectors (agriculture, forestry, hydropower generation and tourism) to climatic changes. Climate change also threatens Bhutan’s vast biodiversity and increases the likelihood of natural hazards (e.g. glacier lake outburst floods, flash floods, droughts and forest fires). A better understanding of Bhutan’s climate and its variability, as well as observed and possible climate impacts, will help in improving the handling of regional social, economic and ecologic challenges not limited to the Himalayas. Only a few climatological studies exist for the eastern Himalayas. They mainly focus on adaptation to immediate threats by glacier lake outbursts. In contrast, this paper (1) investigates the average spatial and inner-annual diversity of the air temperature regime of Bhutan, based on local meteorological observations, (2) discusses past temperature variability, based on global datasets, and (3) relates effects of observed warming to water availability, hydropower development, natural hazards, forests, biodiversity, agriculture, human health and tourism in the Bhutan Himalayas. Results indicate a large spatial and temporal temperature variability within Bhutan and considerably increasing temperatures especially over recent decades. Implications of regional climatic changes on various socio-economic sectors and possible adaptation efforts are discussed.     

The impact of socio-economics and climate change on tropical cyclone losses in the USA

Tropical cyclones that make landfall on the coast of the USA are causing increasing economic losses. It is assumed that the increase in losses is largely due to socio-economic developments, i.e. growing wealth and greater settlement of exposed areas. However, it is also thought that the rise in losses is caused by increasing frequency of severe cyclones resulting from climate change, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. The object of this paper is to investigate how sensitive the losses are to socio-economic changes and climate changes and how these factors have evolved over the last 50 years. We will then draw conclusions about the part the factors concerned play in the observed increase in losses. For analysis purposes, storm loss is depicted as a function of the value of material assets affected by the storm (the capital stock) and storm intensity. The findings show the increase in losses due to socio-economic changes to have been approximately three times greater than that due to climate-induced changes.     

The application of the contingent valuation method in estimating the climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in Greece. An expert-based approach

When dealing with the ecological, social and economic impacts of climate change, it is important for each country to formulate and implement mitigation and adaptation measures. In this context, the present paper examines the application of the contingent valuation method (CVM) for the monetary estimation of the Greek national mitigation and adaptation climate change costs. To this purpose, the CVM in this case study has been applied to the Greek climate change experts only as, theoretically, they represent the most informed part of Greek society in technical and economic aspects of the climate change. Therefore, the findings of this paper express strictly the opinions of the national experts and are not representative of the general population. The monetary estimates include the experts’ WTP for mitigation and adaptation measures as well as their preferences on that percentage of the national GDP that should be funding such measures at the present as well as the future time-scale. In addition, questions concerning the political and institutional climate change settings are included in the survey, providing a more comprehensive socioeconomic analysis in this particular study.     

Climate adaptation in Australia’s resource-extraction industries: ready or not?

Australian resource-extraction industries—mining, fisheries and forestry—operate year-round in the natural environment with all three exposed to climate extremes and to long-term climatic change. However, the industries differ in terms of size, ownership and mobility. Although mining companies are ‘mobile,’ a commitment to a mine site makes them immobile at a location dictated by the presence of a mineral; forestry of natural and managed trees takes place in a specifically selected location that can be changed given a reasonably long time-frame and high financial investment; fishing is the last of the major hunting industries, and despite operating from fixed ports, fishers chase fish across the ocean. All three industries as employers and product providers seek a sustainable future under a changing climate but are subject to environmental variability that impacts on their activities. As each industry has historically dealt with and survived major climate impacts, they typically consider themselves to be resilient, although we illustrate in several case studies that recent climate variability significantly impacts productivity and current resilience is limited. Projected climate change and variability are likely to exacerbate impacts on these industries through new or intensified hazards. Although each industry performs risk management controls to minimize climate-related impacts, a new approach incorporating future climate projections in addition to historical experiences would better prepare each to reduce vulnerability to changing climate. We find that wholesale transformation may not be appropriate or necessary at this time for these industries, and in most cases anticipatory, incremental adaptation should be encouraged, while larger-scale changes are considered in the longer term. Additionally, to overcome some of the barriers and promote the drivers of adaptation, we suggest that a model of adaptive governance coupled with greater use of climate champions may be the most effective method for improving adaptation uptake in these industries.     

Coastal management, climate change adaptation and sustainability in small coastal communities: leatherback turtles and beach loss

Beaches are frequently subjected to erosion and accretion that are influenced by coastal development interventions and natural variations due to storms and changes in river flow. Climate change may also exacerbate beach erosion and accretion. Natural scientists are concerned with the sustainability of species dependent on the beach ecosystem. Policymakers are pre-occupied with the economic sustainability of coastal communities should species decline and prolonged beach loss occur. The aim of this paper is to explore the linkage between science and policy by reporting the findings of a study of coastal change impacts on leatherback turtle nesting and analysing the socio-economic and adaptation implications of these changes for coastal communities. Grande Riviere, Trinidad, was used as a case study. Primary fieldwork investigated unsustainable coastal management practices. A questionnaire was administered to examine livelihoods, including ecotourism based on leatherback turtle nesting, and knowledge and awareness of climate change. One key finding of the study was that the community’s livelihoods were natural resources dependent, and that natural beach dynamics and unsustainable coastal management practices posed major threats to natural resource and economic sustainability. Another key finding was that, despite these impacts, community knowledge and awareness of climate change in general was low, and there was a perception of state responsibility for climate change adaptation. The research findings have global applicability for coastal communities at risk of exposure and that are highly vulnerable to natural resources damage arising from anthropogenic stress and potential climate change. These communities require policy reforms to strengthen current coastal management practices and adaptation responses aimed at ensuring long-term sustainability.     

Impact changes of climatic extremes on arable farming in the north of the Netherlands

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change in multiple ways. Here, we use the northern region of the Netherlands as a case study to explore how risk assessments for climate change impacts on crop production can address multiple vulnerabilities. We present a methodology, which we call agro climate calendar (ACC) that (i) includes potential yield losses, as well as loss of product quality, and (ii) assesses the risks of a variety of climate factors including weather extremes and the emergence and abundance of pests and diseases. Climate factors are defined for two time slices: 1990 (1976–2005) and 2040 (2026–2055); the frequency of occurrence of the factors is compared for the two periods, and the resulting frequency shifts are presented in a crop calendar on a monthly basis. This yields an indication of the magnitude and direction of changes in climatic conditions that can lead to damage by extreme events and pests and diseases. We present results for the two most important crops in the region, seed potato, and winter wheat. The results provide a good overview of risks from climate factors, and the most important threats and opportunities are identified. This semi-quantitative approach is firmly rooted in farm management, which is the level where operational and strategic decisions are made. Thus, the approach is well suited to assist local stakeholders such as farmers and policy makers to explore farm-level adaptation. This work is complementary to previous modeling work that focused mainly on the relation between mean climate change factors (i.e., temperature) and crop yield.     

Obstacles to climate change adaptation decisions: a case study of sea-level rise and coastal protection measures in Kiribati

International aid is increasingly focused on adaptation to climate change. At recent meetings of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the developed world agreed to rapidly increase international assistance to help the developing world respond to the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we examine the decision-making challenges facing internationally supported climate change adaptation projects, using the example of efforts to implement coastal protection measures (e.g. sea walls, mangrove planting) in Kiribati. The central equatorial Pacific country is home to the Kiribati Adaptation Project, the first national-level climate change adaptation project supported by the World Bank. Drawing on interview and document research conducted over an 8-year period, we trace the forces influencing decisions about coastal protection measures, starting from the variability and uncertainty in climate change projections, through the trade-offs between different measures, to the social, political, and economic context in which decisions are finally made. We then discuss how sub-optimal adaptation measures may be implemented despite years of planning, consultation, and technical studies. This qualitative analysis of the real-world process of climate change adaptation reveals that embracing a culturally appropriate and short-term (~20 years) planning horizon, while not ignoring the longer-term future, may reduce the influence of scientific uncertainty on decisions and provide opportunities to learn from mistakes, reassess the science, and adjust suboptimal investments. The limiting element in this approach to adaptation is likely to be the availability of consistent, long-term financing.     

Climate change: an amplifier of existing health risks in developing countries

Global warming is perceived as one of the biggest global health risks of the twenty-first century and a threat to the achievement of sustainable (economic) development; especially in developing countries, climate change is believed to further exacerbate existing vulnerability to disease and food security risks, because their populations are, for example, more reliant on agriculture and more vulnerable to droughts and have a lower adaptive capacity. Furthermore, the health-related impacts of climate change are threatening to undo decades of development policies. The interactions between climate and non-climate factors are of vital importance in shaping human vulnerability to global warming. Climate change cannot be seen as ‘a stand-alone risk factor,’ but rather as an amplifier of existing health and food security risks and an additional strain on institutional infrastructures. In order to avoid a multiplication of health risks in the developing world, there is a need to better understand the multifaceted and complex linkages involved. This is further illustrated for two important climate change–induced health risks, namely malnutrition and malaria. As the amplification of existing and emerging health risks in the developing world might become the greatest tragedy of climate change, adaptation ranks high on developing countries’ agendas. Of particular importance are the discussions about the ‘Green Climate Fund,’ which aims to administer billions of dollars for mitigation and adaptation. Of course, making funds for adaptation available is an important first step, but we also need to ask ourselves the question how such adaptation policies and projects should take shape. This paper demonstrates that an adequate response to climate change health risks should take a systems approach toward adaptation, acknowledging the importance of the local context of the most vulnerable.     

全球气候变化对中国森林影响的研究进展

通过梳理现有文献表明,全球气候变化对社会经济和自然生态系统造成了重大影响,气候变化将显著地改变森林生态服务的供给水平和质量,对森林和以林为生的人口都会造成重要的生态、经济和社会影响,甚至威胁到人类的生存.我国是受气候变化影响较大而适应能力较弱的发展中国家,森林适应气候变化的科学、社会经济及对策研究相对滞后,因此,笔者从气候变化对历史上森林生态系统的影响着手,阐述了气候变化对森林分布、森林演替、森林生产力、生物多样性、森林火灾、森林水文调节和水质、森林生态系统的未来、森林生态服务的水平和质量等方面产生的影响,分析了现有气候变化对森林影响的研究存在的不足:忽略了其它环境因子的作用;忽略了不同物种之间的竞争机制;缺乏对极端气候事件的考虑;缺乏森林自身变化对气候变化的反馈;缺乏森林生态系统对全球气候变化相应机制更深入的认识;研究模型及数据的不完善性.文章最后提出了可将气候变化对森林造成的危害降到最低限度的政策建议.     

The perception of and adaptation to climate variability/change in Ghana by small-scale and commercial farmers

Effective adaptation to climate change and variability is contingent on the perceptions of farmers and the ability of policy makers to merge these with scientific knowledge systems. The study examined the differentiated knowledge, experiences and perceptions of small traditional farmers and modern commercial farmers and their adaptation influences using qualitative interviews. Farmers generally have very clear ideas of the trends in the parameters of climate change as they relate to farm productivity and other livelihoods. Commercial farmers had a better understanding of the science of climate change, but small farmers presented a localised explanation of observed climate changes. Non-climate factors influenced adaptation of both groups of farmers. The capacities of small farmers are lower than their commercial counterparts, but the risks associated with commercial farming are much higher owing to higher investments in uncertain physical and economic conditions. Differentiated policies are needed at climate proofing the investments and efforts of farmers.     

"十二五"环境规划中应对气候变化问题的思考

气候变化对我国社会、经济与环境的协调可持续发展影响日趋严重,把应对气候变化问题纳入国家环境规划必要且适时.在分析行为效益、实施成本、适应性排放和国际因素的基础上,提出我国"十二五"环境规划中应同时考虑"减缓"和"遥应"行为应对气候变化并权衡二者优先次序,采用以适应为主的"单效"方案,将自然承载力、生产系统、社会人居环境三个层次和自然生态系统、水资源、灾害与风险、低碳经济、敏感部门、城市化环境效应、海岸带等7个相关主要问题作为规划应对气候变化的熏点领域.     

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Kenya

Abstract

To determine the climate changes that are due to natural variability and those due to human activities is quite challenging, just like delineating the impacts. Moreover, it is equally difficult to ascertain the adaptive strategies for coping with the climate changes and in particular for developing countries like Kenya. While climate change is a global phenomenon, the impacts are more or less specific to local areas such as observed in Kenyan case. Therefore climate change impacts adaptation strategies are appropriately applicable to a given local perspective. The study investigated the main indicators of climate change and effective adaptive strategies that can be employed in Kenya. Based on online questionnaire survey, the study established unpredictable rainfall patterns as the major indicator of climate change in the country, while water harvesting and change of cropping methods are the best adaptive strategies.     

Climate change perceptions and adaptations of smallholder farmers in Eastern Kenya

Several studies have indicated the importance of understanding farmers’ perceptions of risks associated with climate change, the adaptation strategies they employ and factors that affect adaptive capacity. This study aimed to understand smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change, adaptation strategies and adaptive capacity in the semiarid Matungulu Sub-County, Eastern Kenya. A participatory approach, using three climate roundtables, was conducted to enhance community participation and understanding of climate change issues. The study showed that farmers’ perceptions concerning climate change are influenced by past experiences of weather extremes that have affected production levels and farm incomes. The farmers have made strategic responses to manage risks posed by climate change. However, they face several challenges in adaptation such as inadequate technical knowledge, low financial resources and inadequate land size. Further, the study showed that climate roundtables is a successful participatory approach that can give effective insights for smallholder farmers to understand agricultural vulnerability, climate change and their adaptation strategies.     

Adaptation planning and the use of climate change projections in local government in England and Germany

Planning for adaptation to climate change is often regarded to be a local imperative and considered to be more effective if grounded on a solid evidence base and recognisant of relevant climate projections. Research has already documented some of the challenges of making climate information usable in decision-making but has not yet sufficiently reflected on the role of the wider institutional and regulatory context. This article examines the impact of the external institutional context on the use and usability of climate projections in local government through an analysis of 44 planning and climate change (adaptation) documents and 54 semi-structured interviews with planners in England and Germany conducted between July 2013 and May 2014. We show that there is little demand for climate projections in local adaptation planning in either country due to existing policy, legal and regulatory frameworks. Local government in England has not only experienced a decline in use of climate projections, but also the waning of the climate change adaptation agenda more widely, amidst changes in the planning and regulatory framework and severe budget cuts. In Germany, spatial planning makes substantial use of past and present climate data, but the strictly regulated nature of planning prevents the use of climate projections, due to their inherent uncertainties. Findings from the two countries highlight that if we are to better understand the usability of climate projections, we need to be more aware of the institutional context within which planning decisions are made. Otherwise we run the risk of continuing to provide tools and information that are of limited use within their intended context.     

Resilience and adaptation to extremes in a changing Himalayan environment

Human communities inhabiting remote and geomorphically fragile high-altitude regions are particularly vulnerable to climate change-related glacial hazards and hydrometeorological extremes. This study presents a strategy for enhancing adaptation and resilience of communities living immediately downstream of two potentially hazardous glacial lakes in the Upper Chenab Basin of the Western Himalaya in India. It uses an interdisciplinary investigative framework, involving ground surveys, participatory mapping, comparison of local perceptions of environmental change and hazards with scientific data, identification of assets and livelihood resources at risk, assessment of existing community-level adaptive capacity and resilience and a brief review of governance issues. In addition to recommending specific actions for securing lives and livelihoods in the study area, the study demonstrates the crucial role of regional ground-level, community-centric assessments in evolving an integrated approach to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation for high-altitude environments, particularly in the developing world.     

Power asymmetries and institutions: landscape conservation in central India

Understanding the importance of cross-sectoral implications of climate and socio-economic change in Scotland is essential for adaptation policy. This study explored the direct and indirect sectoral impacts of future change using the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform. There is great spatial diversity in projected impacts across Scotland, and increasing uncertainty in the direction of change of impacts from the national to regional scale associated with climate uncertainty. Further uncertainty associated with socio-economic change results in 6 out of 13 indicators (artificial surfaces, biodiversity vulnerability, forest area, land-use intensity, irrigation usage and land-use diversity) with robust directions of change at the national scale and only three (artificial surfaces, forest area and irrigation usage) that are robust across all regions of Scotland. Complex interactions between socio-economic scenario assumptions (e.g. food imports, population and GDP), climatic suitability and agricultural productivity and profitability lead to significant national and regional changes in the distribution and extent of land cover types, with resultant cross-sectoral interactions with water, forestry and biodiversity. Consequently, stakeholders characterised robust adaptation policy options, within the CLIMSAVE participatory process, as those beneficial to society (and the country) in all scenarios, irrespective of the direction of change of the impacts. The integration in CLIMSAVE of a participatory scenario development process and an integrated participatory modelling framework has allowed the exploration of future uncertainty in a structured approach and better represented the importance of qualitative information and the social and institutional contexts within adaptation research.     

Supporting climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessments in the Asia-Pacific region: an example of sustainability science

Sustainability is achieved only when there is full reconciliation between: (1) economic development; (2) meeting, on an equitable basis, growing and changing human needs and aspirations; and (3) conserving the limited natural resources and the capacity of the environment to absorb the mulitple stresses that are a consequence of human activities. The linkages between climate and sustainability are examined in the context of both the wider Asia-Pacific region and local level climate risks and adaptation responses. These findings are used to underpin and illustrate several implications for sustainability science. Climate change is seen as both an impediment to increasing sustainability and as an opportunity, though in most cases the former far outweighs the latter. Assessments of climate change vulnerability and risk are shown to be of critical importance because they inform decisions as to where resources for adaptation are best invested. They also show whether global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions need to be strengthened because of limits to adaptation. In practice, adaptation takes place at many levels, essentially ranging between tangible interventions at community and enterprise level and national and international efforts to strengthen the enabling environment for adaptation. It is informative to undertake regional assessments of adaptation, even though most adaptation interventions need to reflect local conditions, including local adaptive capacities. The foregoing findings, based in part on a series of regional and local case studies, lead to several recommendations for further research that will help reduce barriers to implementing responses that reduce climate related risks, including adverse consequences for sustainability. The recommendations relate to such themes as making optimum use of predictive capabilities, characterising the linkages between climate change and sustainability, implications of the required rates and magnitudes of adaptation, institutional responses that enhance adaptive capacity, use of new and traditional technologies, the multiple dimensions of social responsibility, and enhancing the enabling environment for adaptation at the community and enterprise level. If these recommendations are acted upon they will, in turn, help address much needed improvements in quantifying the costs and benefits of adaptation, prioritising adaptation options, assessing sustainable development tradeoffs, and monitoring the success of adaptation initiatives. Such improvements will have even greater utility if they are incorporated into user-friendly decision support tools for adaptation.     

Adapting to climate change: an integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique

Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US$ 2.3 to US $7.4 billion during 2003?C2050. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key ??no-regret?? adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management and the regional coordination of adaptation strategies.     

Discerning the factors explaining the change in energy efficiency

Due to the high rates of energy consumption and its impact on environment over the last decades, policy decision-makers are increasingly recognising the need to take actions that allow to address problems associated with the deployment of non-renewable resources and climate changes. One field of action has been the promotion of measures that contribute to improve energy efficiency of countries. The purpose of this study is to identify the main factors explaining changes in energy efficiency applying the multiplicative Log Mean Divisia Index decomposition method for a set of countries (Portugal, UK, Brazil and China) with different socio-economic background and energy mix. The results show that overall energy efficiency trends display different patterns between countries and the same happens within each country from a sectoral perspective. Major drivers of improvements of overall energy efficiency were the intensity effect and the affluence effect, whereas the driver that hampered those improvements was the energy consumption per capita. Some policy implications derived from the results achieved are: policy decision-makers should support measures that promote the adoption of energy-saving technologies resulting from new technological developments; policy measures should be directed to raise awareness of end-users regarding energy efficiency and energy conservation efforts; policy measures promoting economic growth through the development (or expansion) of sectors of activity that consume less energy can also be implemented; finally, policy instruments may also be used to reduce the costs of implementing energy efficiency and energy-saving measures to households and firms.