Armed conflict distribution in global drylands through the lens of a typology of socio-ecological vulnerability

Motivated by an inconclusive debate over implications of resource scarcity for violent conflict, and common reliance on national data and linear models, we investigate the relationship between socio-ecological vulnerability and armed conflict in global drylands on a subnational level. Our study emanates from a global typology of smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to environmental and socioeconomic stresses in drylands. This typology is composed of eight typical value combinations of variables indicating environmental scarcities, resource overuse, and poverty-related factors in a widely subnational spatial resolution. We investigate the relationships between the spatial distribution of these combinations, or vulnerability profiles, and geocoded armed conflicts, and find that conflicts are heterogeneously distributed according to these profiles. Four profiles distributed across low- and middle-income countries comprise all drylands conflicts. Comparing models for conflict incidence using logit regression and receiver operator characteristic analysis based on (1) the set of all seven indicators as independent variables and (2) a single, only vulnerability profile-based variable proves that the nonlinear typology-based variable is the better explanans for conflict incidence. Inspection of the profiles’ value combinations makes this understandable: A systematic explanation of conflict incidence and absence across all degrees of natural resource endowments is only reached through varying importance of poverty and resource overuse depending on the level of endowment. These are nonlinear interactions between the explaining variables. Conflict does not generally increase with resource scarcity or overuse. Comparison with conflict case studies showed both good agreement with our results and promise in expanding the set of indicators. Based on our findings and supporting literature, we argue that part of the debate over implications of resource scarcity for violent conflict in drylands may be resolved by acknowledging and accounting for nonlinear processes.     

基于社会生态系统视角的长三角地级城市韧性度评价

为提升城市应对重大冲击和慢性压力的能力,提高城市的抗打击能力与恢复能力,以及城市对抗不确定风险的韧性程度,本文结合现实背景,以城市社会生态系统的视角,对2014年长三角地区16个地级城市韧性进行实证分析。采用GIS的空间分析和叠加功能方法,从生态环境、市政设施、经济和社会发展4个方面选取24个具体指标,对长三角地区16个地级城市韧性程度及其空间状态做出评价,并确定测度标准值。首先对构成城市韧性的4个因子:生态、市政设施工程、经济以及社会发展进行分析和数字化,得出各因子对城市韧性影响程度的栅格图层;其次对图层进行空间叠加,再得到长三角地区地级城市韧性度评价图。评价结果表明:(1)长三角地级城市韧性呈现"级差化"分布状态,总体呈现出中等韧性状态;(2)长三角地级城市韧性空间分异特征显著,其北翼城市比南翼城市韧性程度较高;(3)长三角地级城市经济、生态韧性在空间分布上相对集中,趋向协调均衡发展。通过城市韧性度分析,认为评价结果基本符合近年来长三角地区城市韧性发展的整体状况,可以在一定程度上增强城市社会生态系统对外界风险的适应能力,并在今后的城市发展调适过程中更具韧性,从而对不同时空尺度的城市韧性状态评价提供一种思路。     

Once there was a lake: vulnerability to environmental changes in northern Mali

Vulnerability assessment is increasingly recognised as a starting point to identify climate adaptation needs and improve adaptive capacity. However, vulnerability assessments are challenging because of the complexity of multifaceted biophysical, human and institutional factors, interacting at different scales and levels within socio-ecological systems. Using a participatory approach across levels and genders, this paper explores the vulnerability of livestock- and forest-based livelihoods to climate variability and change in Lake Faguibine, northern Mali, where drastic ecological, political and social changes have occurred. Our results show that the distribution of vulnerabilities within livelihoods and groups shifted when the ecosystem evolved from a lake to a forest. New vulnerability drivers have emerged, related to resources availability, access and power relations. In addition, political interests and psychological barriers hinder the local transition to an equitable and sustainable use of forest ecosystem services. Divergent perceptions, social identities, interests and power explained why different actors—governmental and non-governmental, men and women, local, sub-national and national—differed in their vulnerability assessments. This is exemplified in the way actors at different levels and of different gender analysed the effects of herders’ mobility and in the way women analysed men’s migration. This case study confirms the need for participatory and gender-sensitive vulnerability assessments across different scales and levels that consider the interaction between socio-ecological systems and the dynamics and distribution of vulnerability across different social sub-systems.     

Achieving sustainability by introducing alternative livelihoods

The millennium ecosystem assessment report on global assessment of desertification has highlighted its worldwide impacts on the environment—increasing dust storms, floods and global warming—as well as on societies and economies. It links sustainable management of resources, and inter alia well-being of dryland populations, to reducing societal pressures on dryland ecosystems through adoption of alternative livelihoods. This paper, in combination with a companion paper by Safriel and Adeel, presents the conceptual underpinnings of this approach as well as examples of how innovative approaches for creating livelihoods can help reduce the pressure on marginal drylands. Three case studies presented are based on activities undertaken within a joint international project called sustainable management of marginal drylands. First, introduction of chicken farming to farmers in Hunshundake Sandland in northern China has reduced the pressure on grasslands and led to a major recovery of these ecosystems. Second, development of desert-based aquaculture, with accompanied longer-term storage of water, on the margins of the Cholistan desert in Pakistan has provided a new source of income for the villagers. Third, development of a new income-generating activity based on soap production from olive oil in Dana Biosphere Reserve in Jordan has demonstrated that traditional olive farming can be linked to community-based innovation to create a new, high-demand market for goods. Working with communities to develop new, sustainable livelihoods that reduce pressure on marginal drylands can thus be used as powerful tool for overcoming and reversing desertification.     

Development,local livelihoods,and vulnerabilities to global environmental change in the South American Dry Andes

Climate change will increasingly impact large areas of South America, affecting important natural resources and people’s livelihoods. These impacts will make rural people disproportionately more vulnerable, given their dependency on ecosystem services and their exposure to other stressors, such as new rules imposed by agribusiness and trends toward the commodification of natural resources. This paper focuses on the vulnerability of rural communities in Andean drylands of Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, showing how different economic and political pathways lead to different levels of vulnerability. The paper begins with a brief discussion of the methodological and theoretical concept of vulnerability, which framed the research. Starting from the premise that global environmental change impacts are strongly linked to styles of development, the discussion explores the diverse institutional capital and governance schemes as well as different development styles in the case studies and their role in increasing or reducing local vulnerability to climate and water scarcity. Using a comparative perspective, the exposures and adaptive capacities of rural actors in three river basins are discussed, emphasizing situations that speak for the ways in which development styles counteract or magnify conditions of vulnerability. The analysis considers irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture, water property interests, different productive structures (viticulture, horticulture, etc.), producer typologies (large/small, export, etc.), and geographical location. Finally, the paper offers some insights about development style and adaptive capacities of rural people to overcome those vulnerabilities.     

Assessment of climate change vulnerability of tourism in Hungary

This paper applies vulnerability assessment methodology to assess the comparative vulnerability of different tourism supply types by region in Hungary. The steps of the methodology include (1) definition of tourism supply typology, (2) identifying exposure indicators, (3) identifying sensitivity indicators, (4) identification of adaptive capacity indicators and (5) developing a vulnerability map. It is clear that climate change has potential negative effects on tourism in Hungary, but the spatial distribution, as well as the sub-sectoral (by tourism supply types) differences of these impacts is almost unknown. Most research papers dealing with the vulnerability of tourism mainly focus on a specific tourism type, whereas this article aims to address all of them from a regional point of view. The key results presented in this paper include the vulnerability map of the country showing the relative vulnerability of different tourism supply types and detailed analysis investigating the possible causes and driving factors. We have categorized tourism regions based on the five most vulnerable tourism supply types. The most significant of them all turned out to be outdoor event-based tourism, being the most vulnerable in the two southern regions, since the expected impacts of climate change are foreseen to be the most significant in these areas.     

Assessing coastal vulnerability to climate change: comparing segmentation at global and regional scales

Recent concerns about potential climate-change effects on coastal systems require the application of vulnerability assessment tools in order to define suitable adaptation strategies and improve coastal zone management effectiveness. In fact, while various research efforts were devoted to evaluate coastal vulnerability to climate change on a national to global level, fewer applications were carried out so far to develop more comprehensive and site-specific vulnerability assessments suitable to plan possible adaptation measures at the regional scale. In this respect, specific indicators are needed to address climate-change-related issues for coastal zones and to identify vulnerable areas at the regional level. Two sets of coastal vulnerability indicators were selected, one for regional and one for global studies, respectively, concerning the same features of coastal systems, including topography and slope, geomorphological characteristics, presence and distribution of wetlands and vegetation cover, density of coastal population and number of coastal inhabitants. The proposed set of indicators for the regional scale was chosen taking into account the availability of environmental and territorial data for the whole coastal area of the Veneto region and was based on site-specific datasets characterized by a spatial resolution appropriate for a regional analysis. Moreover, a GIS-based segmentation procedure was applied to divide the coastline into linear segments, homogeneous in terms of vulnerability to climate change and sea-level rise at the regional scale. This approach allowed to divide the Veneto shoreline into 140 segments with an average length of about 1 km, while the global scale approach identified four coastal segments with an average length of about 66 km. The performed comparison indicated how the more detailed approach adopted at the regional scale is essential to understand and manage the complexities of the specific study area. In fact, the 25-m DEM employed at the regional scale provided a more accurate differentiation of the coastal area's elevation and thus of coastal susceptibility to the inundation risks, compared to the 1-km DEM used at the global level. Moreover, at the regional level the use of a 1:20,000 geomorphological map allowed to differentiate the unique landform class detected at the global level (e.g., fluvial plain) in a variety of more detailed coastal typologies (e.g., open coast eroding sandy shores backed by bedrock) characterized by a different sensitivity to climate change and sea-level rise. Accordingly, the information provided by regional indicators can support decision-makers in improving the management of coastal resources by considering the potential impacts of climate change and in the definition of appropriate actions to reduce inundation risks, to avoid the potential loss of valuable wetlands and vegetation and to plan the nourishment of sandy beaches subject to erosion processes.     

High and low value fish chains in the Mekong Delta: challenges for livelihoods and governance

This paper investigates the structure, function and wealth distribution within the Pangasius hypophthalmus and Henicorhynchus spp./Labiobarbus spp. value chains in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. The analysis is driven by key questions relating to the form and function of value chains, their contribution to the livelihoods of farmers and fishers, the effectiveness of government policy and the potential for value chain governance mechanisms, such as contracts and certification, to steer towards sustainable production. The results indicate that actors in the high value Pangasius hypopthalmus export chain have a higher potential income, but face considerably higher economic vulnerability from global markets. Alternatively, Henichorhychus/Labiobarbus spp. fishers are severely constrained in their ability to negotiate higher prices for their fish but appear to be less vulnerable to economic and environmental change. The paper concludes that for value chain governance to improve the livelihoods of fishers and farmers in both high and low value chains, new arrangements are needed that better accommodate customary institutions and informal market relations.     

Synergistic vulnerabilities: climate variability and fire management policy increase farming challenges in southeastern Mexico

Agricultural fire for land preparation is central in the livelihoods of subsistence farmers practicing shifting cultivation. Achieving a good agricultural burn, one in which the biomass is thoroughly consumed within the chosen area, depends on specific weather conditions. Fire use decisions are also shaped by institutions that define the timing and rules for fire use but also constrain the alternatives and shape adaptive capacities. Global and regional climate changes interact with the institutional framing of fire management affecting local fire use and burn outcomes. These effects are documented and analyzed to suggest adaptations to existing governance systems. We examined subsistence farmers’ socio-ecological vulnerability in the Calakmul municipality, located in southeastern Mexico. Using interviews with farmers and government agents, as well as participatory mapping and observation of agricultural burns, we studied fire management knowledge, practices and burn outcomes. Our results describe a continuum of burn outcomes covering good agricultural burns, uncontrolled burns leading to wildfires and “malquemados” literally poorly burned areas. Malquemados represent unsuccessful combustion associated with excess moisture that results in scorched vegetation. We discuss how unexpected early rains trigger effects that cascade through space and the ecological, economic and cultural domains. We argue that fire management has been historically approached from a conservation standpoint yet agricultural fire use and wildfire prevention should also be addressed from a rural development perspective. This shift in fire management would lead to the proper inclusion of the entire array of burn outcomes in studies and policies addressing farmers’ vulnerability amplified by synergistic effects between climate variability and institutional change.     

An assessment of urban vulnerability in the Amazon Delta and Estuary: a multi-criterion index of flood exposure,socio-economic conditions and infrastructure

The Amazon Delta and Estuary (ADE) is a region of continental and global ecological importance. Controversy, many of the basic infrastructure and services essential for quality of life and sustainable development of this delta are absent. Using a conceptual model to define socio-economic vulnerability in the urban ADE, a thorough assessment of indicators including sanitation services, housing conditions, household income, population, flood risk and unplanned settlements was conducted in 41 cities at the census sector scale (n = 2938). A multi criterion index was applied to classify urban vulnerability from three dimensions: flood exposure, socio-economic sensitivity and infrastructure. This is the first study to examine urban vulnerability within and between urban areas of the ADE. Results indicated that most of the urban sectors of the ADE are exposed to potential risks due to a combination of flood hazards, poverty and basic structural deficiencies such as insufficient drinking water or inadequate waste water collection, with several sectors being afflicted by similar problems. The assessment of vulnerability indicates that 60–90 % of the urban population live in conditions of moderate to high degree of vulnerability. The ADE cities presented a pattern where vulnerability increases from city center to their newly developed urban areas. Inadequate planning coupled with rapid urbanization has contributed to the development of unplanned settlements in almost half of the urban sectors of the ADE. Combined, these factors contribute to widespread socio-economic vulnerability along the urban spaces of the ADE, increasing exposure to health risks and more frequent seasonal and stochastic events such as storm surges and high flooding levels.     

A review of vulnerability indicators for deltaic social–ecological systems

The sustainability of deltas worldwide is under threat due to the consequences of global environmental change (including climate change) and human interventions in deltaic landscapes. Understanding these systems is becoming increasingly important to assess threats to and opportunities for long-term sustainable development. Here, we propose a simplified, yet inclusive social–ecological system (SES)-centered risk and vulnerability framework and a list of indicators proven to be useful in past delta assessments. In total, 236 indicators were identified through a structured review of peer-reviewed literature performed for three globally relevant deltas—the Mekong, the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and the Amazon. These are meant to serve as a preliminary “library” of potential indicators to be used for future vulnerability assessments. Based on the reviewed studies, we identified disparities in the availability of indicators to populate some of the vulnerability domains of the proposed framework, as comprehensive social–ecological assessments were seldom implemented in the past. Even in assessments explicitly aiming to capture both the social and the ecological system, there were many more indicators for social susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacities as compared to those relevant for characterizing ecosystem susceptibility or robustness. Moreover, there is a lack of multi-hazard approaches accounting for the specific vulnerability profile of sub-delta areas. We advocate for more comprehensive, truly social–ecological assessments which respond to multi-hazard settings and recognize within-delta differences in vulnerability and risk. Such assessments could make use of the proposed framework and list of indicators as a starting point and amend it with new indicators that would allow capturing the complexity as well as the multi-hazard exposure in a typical delta SES.     

岷江上游生态环境脆弱性评价

生态环境脆弱性评价是全球生态问题和可持续发展研究中的重要内容之一。岷江上游因地质构造复杂、人地矛盾突出、生态系统异常脆弱和灵敏而备受关注。本文以岷江上游生态环境脆弱性为研究对象,选取证据权重法(WOE)进行滑坡脆弱性评价,层次分析法(AHP)进行水力侵蚀、景观破坏与污染脆弱性评价;在此基础上,进行了研究区各生态主题脆弱性的空间叠加分析;探讨了岷江上游生态环境脆弱性及其在不同影响因子作用下的空间分异特征。结果表明:研究区的滑坡脆弱性、水力侵蚀脆弱性、景观破坏与污染脆弱性均以轻微度为主,分别占研究区面积的80.43%、71.89%、75.55%;各生态环境主题脆弱性综合分析表明,54.70%的区域至少面临一种生态问题,面临两种及以上环境问题的区域占15.43%,同时面临三种环境问题的占1.35%。研究结果探讨了岷江上游生态环境存在的主要问题和影响因子,对岷江流域乃至长江流域的生态安全和可持续发展具有积极意义,未来应持续关注生态环境脆弱区的生态环境问题。     

Vulnerability of human environment to risk: case of groundwater contamination risk

Based on a theoretical revision of the social vulnerability concept, this article proposes a scheme of vulnerability indicators within the human environment focused on different aetiology risks. An adaptation of this generic scheme of vulnerability factors is set for the specific field of aquifer contamination risk, as well as a methodology for its analysis. Finally, model application examples are given for the Sierra de Líbar and Sierra de Mijas carbonate aquifers and the Vélez River detrital aquifer, all of which are located in the south of Spain. Obtained cartography results show a range of utilities for risk mitigation and permit appropriate spatial discrimination for its performance over different scales. The exposure and vulnerability of the groundwater contamination risk concept is evaluated in specific maps, taking into account the resident population as well as their assets.     

Nonformal environmental education: a case study with farmers in a town of the South Minas Gerais state,Brazil

Brazil is a central place in the international agricultural markets and this fact has been demanding environmentally oriented agricultural practices by Brazilian farmers and professionals involved in the agricultural market chain. A concise and structured questionnaire was applied to obtain the environmental perception of a group of Brazilian farmers in a town of the south Minas Gerais state, using herbicides as the topic for a case study. A highly variable opinion about taking the environment into account when choosing the most appropriate herbicide was found. Anyway, efficacy has been indicated as the most important factor when choosing an herbicide, followed by the environment and price. The outcomes from the questionnaires, i.e. the insufficient conception and importance given to environment when choosing the herbicide, motivated the creation of a teaching-learning model for the nonformal environmental education using the concept of socio-ecological resilience. This routine puts in practice the resilience thinking currently invoked as a major tool to achieve the conservation of the socio-ecological system, as well as it is complimentary to the outcome-oriented optimization for conservation theory. For the case study about farmers and the use of herbicides, we conclude that a complex reasoning and, ultimately, pro-environmental actions can be improved after experiencing the recommended model for environmental education.     

Living without buffers—illustrating climate vulnerability in the Lake Victoria basin

Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity are essential, albeit theoretically vague, components of climate vulnerability. This has triggered debate surrounding how these factors can be translated into, and understood in, an empirical context subject to present and future harm. In this article, which draws on extensive fieldwork in the Lake Victoria Basin of Kenya and Tanzania, we illustrate how exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity play out in the context of climate vulnerability and discuss how they interact in situ. Using a mixed methods approach including survey data, rainfall data and a suite of participatory methods, such as focus groups and interactive mapping of seasonal calendars, we identify how climate-induced stressors affect smallholder farmers’ well-being and natural resources. Drawing on the seasonal calendar as a heuristic, and climate vulnerability terminology, we illustrate when, where and how these climate-induced stressors converge to constrain farmers’ livelihoods. Our analysis indicates that farmers in the basin face a highly uncertain future with discernible, but differentiated, adaptation deficits due to recurring, and potentially worsening, patterns of hardship.     

Developing an integrated framework to assess agri-food systems and its application in the Ecuadorian Andes

Agri-food systems assessment can be performed following official and alternative framings, each linked to different objects of study, methods of analysis, and policy responses. Alternative frames conceptualize agri-food systems as the integration and interaction of humans and the agro-environment (i.e., as socio-ecological systems). This conceptualization allows studying the cross-level, cross-scale, and nonlinear interactions within and between the components of the system and help assess policy proposals, such as food sovereignty, in a more systemic way. To facilitate this, we link reflections and methodologies from complex system thinking and vulnerability studies applied to agri-food systems to propose an integrated framework of assessment, which links the agroecological context and the social function of agriculture, considering actor’s agency and institutional processes. This framework is suitable to analyze agri-food systems in fragile and marginal environments such as the Andean region. We apply the framework to assess vulnerability of local agri-food systems to global change in the southern Ecuadorian Andes, taking into account the role of peasant institutions (agroecological associations, comunas) and indigenous culture. The framework also allows understanding how agri-food policies change the configuration of agri-food systems and determines whether these changes are consistent with communities’ livelihoods reproduction.     

The scientific challenge of bridging the gap from the local to the earth system level: lessons from the study of mangroves and people in North Brazil

This article aims to address the challenges of sustainable earth system governance from a multi-scale level perspective. The local to regional system level reviews findings from a social–ecological system approach of a mangrove ecosystem in North Brazil. Seven challenges (Glaser et al. in Mangrove dynamics and management in North Brazil. Ecological studies series. Springer, Berlin, pp 307–388, 2010) that could provide relevant knowledge to society were identified. Their respective justification and recommendations are presented here. Further, these “challenges from the field” are linked and discussed with those challenges on earth system level elaborated by the International Council for Science in 2010. There it was stressed that sustainability problems are increasingly caused by drivers from multiple spatial and institutional levels in a single global human–nature system. The comparison between the global and local to regional challenges shows that most of these are reappearing disregarding the level of analysis, indicating that there is a universal core of global change problems. However, there are gaps visible which hamper the effective connections across the different spatial levels. These pertain to the subjects of knowledge generation and stakeholder inclusion. The final section elaborates on these recognized gaps and their science–policy dimensions. The article closes with the identification of a number of factors which currently impede global sustainability efforts: shortcomings in inter- and transdisciplinary research practice, lack of consistent structures for earth system governance and shortcomings in dealing with upscaling challenges whilst remaining locally relevant. A blueprint for a globally focused but regionally informed social–ecological analysis framework remains to be worked out.     

Toward sustainable adaptation to future climate change: insights from vulnerability and resilience approaches analyzing agrarian system of Iran

There is no certainty that adaptation to climate change is sustainable, and new approaches to assess current climate change adaptation trajectories are sorely needed. In this paper, we review the farmer-focused approaches (typical of vulnerability approaches) and agro-ecosystem-focused approaches (typical of resilience approaches). We propose that a combination of the two may be a better way to conceptualize sustainable adaptation to future climate change within an agro-ecological system. To test our hypothesis, we use the case study of Iran, a land that has shown both tremendous resilience and vulnerability in its agro-ecological system. We explore the changes that have occurred in the Iranian farming system and their implications for farmers’ resilience to climate change through an integrated lens combining vulnerability approaches and resilience approaches. During the previous five decades, we describe how Iranian peasants have become small farmers, the land tenure system has changed from a traditional landlord-sharecropping system to family farms, and the quantity and quality of the agro-ecological resources have changed considerably. Our integrative approach provides important insights for both research and policy. We show that combining the two approaches can have far-reaching implications for farmers’ adaptation to future climate change knowledge, policy, and practice since one approach aims to decrease farmers vulnerability and the other approach aims to build resilient agro-ecosystems.     

Small island developing states: coastal systems, global change and sustainability

The intent of this paper is to place the concepts of exposure, vulnerability, resilience and risk in the context of the consequences of global change for the sustainable development of small island developing states (SIDS). Many such states face a number of global climate change risks, such as an increase in the proportion of more intense storms, along with other global change threats that include energy security and costs. All these threats come on top of local development threats, such as increased run-off, often with increasing levels of contaminants due to unsustainable agricultural and industrial practices. When taken together, the resulting pressures on islands and their communities lead to significant increases in vulnerability to change due to reduced resilience to these changes. Vulnerability is also increasing as a result of contemporary processes that heighten the exposure of material and other assets. The capacity to address hazard risk also influences vulnerability. This includes the level of awareness of coastal hazards and exposure, and access to critical life support infrastructure, especially for people living in hazard-prone areas. Vulnerability and resilience are considered to be important integrating concepts when managing the local consequences of global changes. There are many initiatives that will help reduce the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of SIDS to such changes. These include improving risk knowledge and coastal resource and land use management, while also strengthening socio-economic systems and livelihoods. In this way, managing global change can be closely aligned with local development and humanitarian processes, thereby enhancing the overall sustainability of development processes and outcomes.