Mapping fire behaviour under changing climate in a Mediterranean landscape in Greece

Understanding how future climate periods influence fire behaviour is important for organizing fire suppression strategy and management. The meteorological factors are the most critical parameters affecting fire behaviour in natural landscapes; hence, predicting climate change effects on fire behaviour could be an option for optimizing firefighting resource management. In this study, we assessed climate change impacts on fire behaviour parameters (rate of fire growth, rate of spread and fireline intensity) for a typical Mediterranean landscape of Greece. We applied the minimum travel time fire simulation algorithm by using the FlamMap software to characterize potential response of fire behaviour for three summer periods. The results consisted of simulated spatially explicit fire behaviour parameters of the present climate (2000) and three future summer periods of 2050, 2070 and 2100, under the A1B emissions scenario. Statistical significant differences in simulation outputs among the four examined periods were obtained by using the Tukey’s significance test. Statistical significant differences were mainly obtained for 2100 compared to the present climate due to the significant projected increase in the wind speed by the end of the century. The analysis and the conclusions of the study can be important inputs for fire suppression strategy and fire management (deployment of fire suppression resources, firefighter safety and exposure, transportation logistics) quantifying the effect that the expected future climate periods can have on fire suppression difficulty in Mediterranean landscapes.     

Mediterranean cyclones and windstorms in a changing climate

Changes in the frequency and intensity of cyclones and associated windstorms affecting the Mediterranean region simulated under enhanced Greenhouse Gas forcing conditions are investigated. The analysis is based on 7 climate model integrations performed with two coupled global models (ECHAM5 MPIOM and INGV CMCC), comparing the end of the twentieth century and at least the first half of the twenty-first century. As one of the models has a considerably enhanced resolution of the atmosphere and the ocean, it is also investigated whether the climate change signals are influenced by the model resolution. While the higher resolved simulation is closer to reanalysis climatology, both in terms of cyclones and windstorm distributions, there is no evidence for an influence of the resolution on the sign of the climate change signal. All model simulations show a reduction in the total number of cyclones crossing the Mediterranean region under climate change conditions. Exceptions are Morocco and the Levant region, where the models predict an increase in the number of cyclones. The reduction is especially strong for intense cyclones in terms of their Laplacian of pressure. The influence of the simulated positive shift in the NAO Index on the cyclone decrease is restricted to the Western Mediterranean region, where it explains 10–50 % of the simulated trend, depending on the individual simulation. With respect to windstorms, decreases are simulated over most of the Mediterranean basin. This overall reduction is due to a decrease in the number of events associated with local cyclones, while the number of events associated with cyclones outside of the Mediterranean region slightly increases. These systems are, however, less intense in terms of their integrated severity over the Mediterranean area, as they mostly affect the fringes of the region. In spite of the general reduction in total numbers, several cyclones and windstorms of intensity unknown under current climate conditions are identified for the scenario simulations. For these events, no common trend exists in the individual simulations. Thus, they may rather be attributed to long-term (e.g. decadal) variability than to the Greenhouse Gas forcing. Nevertheless, the result indicates that high-impact weather systems will remain an important risk in the Mediterranean Basin.     

Future soil loss in highland Ethiopia under changing climate and land use

Regional Environmental Change - Donors, governments, non-government organisations and humanitarian agencies are increasingly investing in disaster risk reduction (DRR) but there is limited...     

Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: progress,uncertainties and research needs

BackgroundClimate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and ozone (O₃). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties.ObjectivesWe conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM_2.5-/O₃-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty.MethodsA literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013.DiscussionFifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM_2.5 and O₃ may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM_2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O₃, but projection studies of PM_2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O₃-related mortality.There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced.ConclusionsProjecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM_2.5 and O₃ on mortality in the context of climate change.     

Future of global governance and climate change action in a changing political landscape

<正>1.Editor's note On 30 November 2016,the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy(BTC),Caixin Video,and Columbia Global Centers(Beijing)jointly hosted a Seminar on the Future of Global Governance and Climate Change Action in a Changing Political Landscape.Leading experts on China's environmental policy and climate     

Status and drivers of food insecurity and adaptation responses under a changing climate among smallholder farmers households in Bagmati Province,Nepal

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Like other low-income countries in Asia and Africa, Nepal still suffers from food insecurity with a large proportion of food-insecure households being...     

An empirically tested overlap between indigenous and scientific knowledge of a changing climate in Bolivian Amazonia

Regional Environmental Change - Existing climate data for Bolivian Amazonia rely on observations from a few sparse weather stations, interpolated on coarse-resolution grids. At the same time, the...     

Spatial analysis of the driving factors of grassland degradation under conditions of climate change and intensive use in Inner Mongolia, China

In recent years, steppe degradation in North China has become a serious environmental problem. Most research on steppe degradation is conducted at the level of communities or at the scale of small regions. To better understand the spatio-temporal variation and driving factors of grassland degradation, monitoring and analysis at broad regional scales are needed. This paper systematically describes the state and characteristics of steppe degradation at the Xilinhot plateau, makes an in-depth empirical analysis of the natural and man-made causes leading to degradation, and analyzes what driving factors have influenced degradation in this typical steppe region over the last 20?years. Ten biophysical and socio-economic variables, including altitude, slope, precipitation, temperature, soil conditions, distance to river, distance to highway, population density, sheep unit density, and fencing policy, were evaluated on their impact on observed patterns of degradation. The results indicate that all of these factors had a significant influence on the process of steppe degradation. During the first 10?years, from 1991 to 2000, steppe degradation increased, but after 2000, the degradation trend has, to some extent, reversed. The analysis indicates that the measures taken by the government, such as fencing vulnerable areas, played an important role in this change. The results advance the understanding of grassland degradation and contribute to constructing an empirical and theoretical base for grassland management and planning.     

Resilience of stocking capacity to changing climate in arid to Mediterranean landscapes

Small livestock is an important resource for rural human populations in dry climates. How strongly will climate change affect the capacity of the rangeland? We used hierarchical modelling to scale quantitatively the growth of shrubs and annual plants, the main food of sheep and goats, to the landscape extent in the eastern Mediterranean region. Without grazing, productivity increased in a sigmoid way with mean annual precipitation. Grazing reduced productivity more strongly the drier the landscape. At a point just under the stocking capacity of the vegetation, productivity declined precipitously with more intense grazing due to a lack of seed production of annuals. We repeated simulations with precipitation patterns projected by two contrasting IPCC scenarios. Compared to results based on historic patterns, productivity and stocking capacity did not differ in most cases. Thus, grazing intensity remains the stronger impact on landscape productivity in this dry region even in the future.     

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Adaptation strategies of farmers to drought in a changing climate in Dingcheng County,Hunan, southern China

Regional Environmental Change -     

Impacts of changing climate and snow cover on the flow regime of Jhelum River,Western Himalayas

Regional Environmental Change - This study examines the change in climate variables and snow cover dynamics and their impact on the hydrological regime of the Jhelum River basin in Western...     

Predicting species dominance shifts across elevation gradients in mountain forests in Greece under a warmer and drier climate

Regional Environmental Change - The Mediterranean Basin is expected to face warmer and drier conditions in the future, following projected increases in temperature and declines in precipitation....     

Risk management strategies to cope with climate change in grassland production: an illustrative case study for the Swiss plateau

In this paper, we assess climate change impacts on an intensively managed grassland system at the Swiss Plateau using the process-based grassland model PROGRASS. Taking the CO₂ fertilization into account, we find increasing yield levels (in the range of 10–24%) and sharp increases in production risks for an illustrative climate change scenario that suggests a marked increase in temperature and decrease in summer rainfall. Climate change–induced increases in the coefficients of variation of grassland yields are in the range of 21 and 50%. This finding underpins that additional risk management strategies are needed to cope with climate-change impacts on grassland production. The outputs from the grassland model are evaluated economically using certainty equivalents, i.e., accounting for mean quasi rents and production risks. To identify potential risk management strategies under current and future climatic conditions, we consider adjustments of production intensity and farm-level yield insurance. The impact of climate change on production intensities is found to be ambiguous: farmers’ will increase intensity under unconstrained production conditions, but will decrease production intensity in the presence of a cross-compliance scheme. Our results also show that the considered insurance scheme is a powerful tool to manage climate risks in grassland production under current and future conditions because it can reduce the coefficients of variation of quasi rents by up to 50%. However, we find that direct payments tend to reduce farmers’ incentives to use such insurance scheme.     

Implications of changing cropping pattern to low water demand plants due to climate change: evidence from Iran

Environment, Development and Sustainability - In this research, 17 implications of changing cropping patterns (CP) to low water demand plants (LWDPs) were identified. Then, the experts were asked...     

Assessing suitability of apple cultivation under climate change in mountainous regions of western Nepal

Mustang, a mountainous region in the Kali Gandaki River Basin in western Nepal, has been increasingly experiencing climatic changes (e.g., higher temperatures). Rising temperatures lead to ecological shifts, which, in turn, can lead to the expansion of the lower limit for the cultivation of apple trees in this area. Apple cultivation can provide opportunities for adaptations under climate change through vulnerability reduction, income source diversification, livelihood improvement, and capacity building for farmers. As there is a lack of a strong basis to justify the expansion of apple cultivation in Mustang, this study examines the biophysical and socioeconomic suitability of apple cultivation in the area. Necessary data and information were collected from both primary and secondary sources. Findings of biophysical suitability using variable and equal weights to the indicators showed that 5.2 and 4.1 % of the areas are highly suitable for apple cultivation, respectively. However, not all potential farming areas are currently in use. Thus, there is the possibility to expand apple cultivation into unplanted areas and to integrate apple crops with other crops on cultivated lands. Increasing temperature may increase the suitable areas for the cultivation of apples in the coming years. High, benefit–cost ratio for land use confirmed the economic suitability of apple farming when compared to other land uses. The social suitability assessment showed no social discords, conflicts, or disagreements with apple cultivation, which is a positive indicator for the expansion of apple cultivation in western Nepal.     

Impacts of business-as-usual management on ecosystem services in European mountain ranges under climate change

Mountain forests provide a multitude of services beyond timber production. In a large European project (ARANGE—Advanced multifunctional forest management in European mountain RANGEs), the impacts of climate change and forest management on ecosystem services (ES) were assessed. Here, we provide background information about the concept that was underlying the ARANGE project, and its main objectives, research questions, and methodological approaches are presented. The project focused on synergies and trade-offs among four key ES that are relevant in European mountain ranges: timber production, carbon storage, biodiversity conservation, and protection from gravitational natural hazards. We introduce the concept and selection of case study areas (CSAs) that were used in the project; we describe the concept of representative stand types that were developed to provide a harmonized representation of forest stands and forest management in the CSAs; we explain and discuss the climate data and climate change scenarios that were applied across the seven CSAs; and we introduce the linker functions that were developed to relate stand- and landscape-scale forest features from model simulations to ES provisioning in mountain forests. Finally, we provide a brief overview of the Special Feature, with an attempt to synthesize emerging response patterns across the CSAs.