Evaluation of land use change degree and ecological security in the Manas River Basin,Xinjiang, China

In this paper, we evaluate the extent of land use change and ecological security grades in the Manas River Basin, on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, from 1989–2002. Surveys were performed using Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) means, and the relationship between land use change and ecological security was analyzed. The results are as follows: (i) the degree of land use change steadily increased in the Manas River Basin, and overall land use was in a state of development; (ii) From 1989–2002, the ecological security of the drainage basin generally improved somewhat, but deteriorated subsequently in some regions; (iii) the ecological security grade increased in regions with land use composite change extent values of 18–100, and ecological security grade improved from moderate warning in 1989 to early warning in 2002; and (iv) the cumulative areas of regions with relatively secure, and early-warning ecological security grade were ranked by land use degree in the order, V > IV > I > VI > III > II, showing that that regions with land use degree V (woodlands and grasslands) were important areas for ecological restoration and regeneration in this drainage basin, and that it was difficult to improve the ecological environment on sandy soils. We suggest that ecological security grades can be improved by increasing land use degree in regions where it is low.     

Potential impacts of climate change on agricultural land use suitability of the Hungarian counties

Central and Eastern European countries are a hotspot area when analyzing the impacts of climate change on agricultural and environmental sectors. This paper conducts a socio-economic evaluation of climate risks on crop production in Hungary, using panel data models. The region has a special location in the Carpathian basin, where the spatial distribution of precipitation varies highly from humid conditions in the western part to semiarid conditions in eastern Hungary. Under current conditions, crop systems are mainly rainfed, and water licences are massively underexploited. However, water stress projected by climate change scenarios could completely change this situation. In the near future (2021–2050), most of the crops examined could have better climatic conditions, while at the end of the century (2071–2100), lower yields are expected. Adaptation strategies must be based on an integrated evaluation which links economic and climatic aspects, and since the results show important differences in the case of individual systems, it is clear that the response has to be crop and region specific.     

Prognosis of the impact of global climate change on zonal ecosystems of the Volga River Basin

On the basis of the GISS prognostic climatic model, landscape-ecological scenarios concerning the immediate future of the region are considered in the forms of cartographic and analytical models. These scenarios predict a growing thermoarid bioclimatic trend accompanied by a general northward displacement of zonal boundaries, with corresponding acceleration of the biological cycle and increase in the productivity of boreal forests.     

Impacts of climate change on lakes and reservoirs dynamics and restoration policies

Meteorological-driven processes exert large and diverse impacts on lakes and their water quality; these impacts can be hydrologic, thermal, hydraulic, chemical, biochemical, or ecological. The impact of climate change on Lake Tahoe (California–Nevada) was investigated here as a case study of climate change effects on the physical processes occurring within lakes. The already published trends of meteorological variables were used to assess the effects of global warming on Lake Tahoe dynamics. Records from the period 1969–2002 show that Lake Tahoe has became warmer and more stable. A series of simulation years into the future (i.e., 2000–2040) was established using flows, loads, and meteorology data sets for the period 1994–2004. Results of 40-year simulations show that the lake continues to become warmer and more stable, and mixing is reduced. Possible changes in water quality because of global warming are discussed through inference, although these are not specifically simulated. Many existing problems may be exacerbated due to climate change, yet extreme uncertainty depends on the rate and magnitude of climate change. Therefore, shifts in water quality and quantity due to climate change should be integrated into contemporary planning and management in an adaptive manner, and the research and development of impact assessment methodology should focus on approaches that can handle extreme uncertainty. The general alternatives for lake management due to climate change are discussed. Depending on the specific case, further intensive research is suggested to restore lake water quality.     

Impacts of climate change on food security and agriculture sector in Malaysia

This study attempts to analyze the short- and long-run impacts of the probable change in rainfall and temperature simultaneously on food availability and access to food issues, as the two dimensions of food security, in Malaysia. It uses an integrated method comprising of a stochastic method and a computable general equilibrium model using the latest (2010) input–output table published in 2015. The stochastic method, which relates to the Monte Carlo simulation, provides the probable changes in rainfall and temperature patterns and their probability of occurrence based on historical data of rainfall and temperature and crop productivity. It was found that, simultaneous variation of rainfall and temperature, in both the short- and long-run, contracts the economic performance of Malaysia. Findings also show the negative impact of rainfall–temperature variability, in both time periods, on food availability and access to food due to a reduction in the supply of agricultural products, a commodity inflation pressure and a reduction in household income. Moreover, results suggest that the climate variability shocks lead to a reduction in the consumption and welfare of all household groups, particularly in rural areas.     

Quantification of land use/land cover changes in Pearl River Delta and its impact on regional climate in summer using numerical modeling

This study quantified land use/land cover (LULC) changes in Pearl River Delta (PRD) of South China and its impact on regional climate over the last two decades. The LULC change analyses were accomplished by applying a change detection method to a set of Landsat imagery and ancillary data acquired from 1970s to 2000. The results indicate that the urban expansion is the prevailing LULC change in the PRD. Impact of LULC change on regional climate was simulated by using a mesoscale climate model. Two different land cover datasets circa 1990 and 2000 were input to the model to investigate the impact of urbanization on regional weather and climate condition in summer 2005. The simulation results show that rapid urban expansion can substantially alter regional climate conditions in the PRD region including monthly mean temperature, precipitation, moisture, and surface heat fluxes.     

Livelihood vulnerability approach to assessing climate change impacts on mixed agro-livestock smallholders around the Gandaki River Basin in Nepal

Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends mainly upon agriculture and livestock production are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world’s fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there is limited knowledge on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions in Nepal. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index and IPCC vulnerability index, around the Gandaki River Basin of central Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts, namely Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu representing three major ecological zones: mountain, mid-hill and Terai (lowland). Data on socio-demographics, livelihood determinants, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected and combined into the indices. Both indices differed for mixed agro-livestock smallholders across the three districts, with Dhading scoring as the most vulnerable and Syangja the least. Substantial variation across the districts was observed in components, sub-components and three dimensions (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) of vulnerability. The findings help in designing site-specific intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders to climate change.     

Impacts of climate change on the distribution of species and communities in the Chilean Mediterranean ecosystem

The Mediterranean region of Chile is considered a biodiversity hot spot. An increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation, as projected for the end of this century by global circulation models, would likely change the distribution of the sclerophyllous thorny shrubland and woodland. In order to assess those potential impacts, the MAXENT algorithm was used to project potential changes in the distribution of the Mediterranean ecosystem. Ecological niche models were fitted and used to project the potential distribution of these forest ecosystems by the end of the century. Projections were made using data from the PRECIS model for the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios and two strategies of occupancy: free migration and non-migration. Distribution models of sclerophyllous, woodland and shrubland performed accurately representing current species’ distribution. When we assume non-migration responses under climate change scenarios, results reveal a decrease in the distribution area for all the species. The areas where the highest reduction in a suitable environment was found are located along the coastline, where higher temperature increases have been projected. For native ecosystems from the Andean Range region, such as communities dominated by thorny species, a stable habitat was found, associated with a higher adaptation capability to future climatic projections. Hence, in the future, buffer zones originated by “topo-climatic” conditions might play a key role in protecting Central Chile biodiversity.     

Impacts of climate change on Chinese ecosystems: key vulnerable regions and potential thresholds

China is a key vulnerable region of climate change in the world. Climate warming and general increase in precipitation with strong temporal and spatial variations have happened in China during the past century. Such changes in climate associated with the human disturbances have influenced natural ecosystems of China, leading to the advanced plant phenology in spring, lengthened growing season of vegetation, modified composition and geographical pattern of vegetation, especially in ecotone and tree-lines, and the increases in vegetation cover, vegetation activity and net primary productivity. Increases in temperature, changes in precipitation regime and CO₂ concentration enrichment will happen in the future in China according to climate model simulations. The projected climate scenarios (associated with land use changes again) will significantly influence Chinese ecosystems, resulting in a northward shift of all forests, disappearance of boreal forest from northeastern China, new tropical forests and woodlands move into the tropics, an eastward shift of grasslands (expansion) and deserts (shrinkage), a reduction in alpine vegetation and an increase in net primary productivity of most vegetation types. Ecosystems in northern and western parts of China are more vulnerable to climate changes than those in eastern China, while ecosystems in the east are more vulnerable to land use changes other than climate changes. Such assessment could be helpful to address the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC Article 2).     

Impacts of climate change on rice production: evidence from 30 Chinese provinces

Environment, Development and Sustainability - This study examined the effects of climate change on rice production in 30 Chinese provinces spanning 1998–2017. The study used the pooled mean...     

Impacts of climate change on the hydrology of two Natura 2000 sites in Northern Greece

Greece is included among the most vulnerable regions of Europe by climate change on account of higher temperature and reduced rainfall in areas already facing water scarcity. With respect to wetland systems, many ephemeral ones are expected to disappear and several permanent to shrink due to climate change. As regards two specific wetlands of Greece, the change in hydroperiod of Cheimaditida and Kerkini lakes due to climate change was studied. Lakes’ water balance was simulated using historical climate data and the emission scenarios Α1Β for the period 2020–2050 and Α1Β and Α2 for the period 2070–2100. Future climate scenarios, based on emission scenarios A1B and A2, were provided in the context of the study of Climate Change Impacts Study Committee. The surface area of Lake Cheimaditida will undergo a substantial decrease, initially by 20 % during the period 2020–2050 and later until 37 % during the period 2070–2100. In Lake Kerkini, the surface area will decrease, initially by 5 % during the period 2020–2050 and later until 14 % during the period 2070–2100. Climate change is anticipated to impact the hydroperiod of the two wetlands, and the sustainable water management is essential to prevent the wetland’s biodiversity loss.     

Impacts of climate change and climate variability on the competitiveness of wheat and beef cattle production in Emerald, north-east Australia.

Emerald, north-east Queensland, is at the northern margin of the wheat cropping region of Australia. The Emerald region was previously used predominantly for grazing beef cattle; however, cropping has developed in importance over the past 30 years. We use historical climate records (1890-1998) to simulate and compare wheat yields, grass production and live-weight gain (LWG) over time. The cropping expansion from the 1970s to the early 1990s has occurred in a unique period in the 108-year record with the highest average wheat yields, lowest wheat yield variability and the greatest relative productivity of wheat production against grass production. If this window of opportunity is a result of long-term climate variability, then cropping is likely to decline in the region as conditions return to those experienced earlier in the record. If this increase is related to climate change, then cropping is likely to persist in the region with productivity maintained at current levels particularly through the yield-enhancing effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, this persistence will be influenced by the frequencies of El Ni?o conditions that may increase with global warming. The high relative productivities experienced over the past few decades have probably biased producers' expectations, and applications for drought support need to take into account the longer-term perspective provided by this analysis. Nevertheless, the last 6 years have the lowest simulated mean LWG production on the record. The identification of poor production periods depended on the production element being addressed and the timescale involved.     

Impacts of future land use/land cover on wildfire occurrence in the Madrid region (Spain)

This paper assesses the relative importance of socioeconomic factors linked to fire occurrence through the simulation of future land use/land cover (LULC) change scenarios in the Madrid region (Spain). This region is a clear example of the socioeconomic changes that have been occurring over recent decades in the European Mediterranean as well as their impact on LULC and fire occurrence. Using the LULC changes observed between 1990 and 2006 as a reference, future scenarios were run up to 2025 with the conversion of land use and its effects model. Simultaneously, the relationship between LULC arrangement (interfaces) and historical fire occurrence was calculated using logistic regression analysis and used to quantify changes in future fire occurrence due to projected changes in LULC interfaces. The results revealed that it is possible to explain the probability of fire occurrence using only variables obtained from LULC maps, although the explanatory power of the model is low. In this context, border areas between some LULC types are of particular interest (i.e., urban/forest, grassland/forest and agricultural/forest interfaces). Results indicated that expected LULC changes in Euro-Mediterranean regions, particularly given the foreseeable increase in the wildland–urban interface, will substantially increase fire occurrence (up to 155 %). This underlines the importance of future LULC scenarios when planning fire prevention measures.     

Institutional capacity for long-term climate change adaptation: evidence from land use planning in Albay,Philippines

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation (CCA) into plans and programs is still a new approach in adaptation and thus there is limited information on how to operationalize it on-ground. This paper addresses this gap by investigating the challenges in mainstreaming CCA into the local land use plans in the province of Albay, Philippines. Specifically, this paper developed 20 quantitative “mainstreaming indicators” to assess the state-of-play and the challenges for local mainstreaming. These indicators were classified under three groupings, namely, the information, institutional, and resource capacities of systems. Qualitative analysis of the indicator scores suggested that developing the institutional capacities of local governments is crucial in the local mainstreaming process. Likewise, the results highlighted the “institutional issues” indicator as the primary barrier in operationalizing the approach. These institutional issues are: fragmented laws and regulations; overlapping policy requirements; and the lack of guidelines for mainstreaming CCA into the local land use plans. Meanwhile, the “leadership” indicator, as signified by a climate change champion in Albay, was evaluated as an opportunity for local mainstreaming. The champion effectively led the CCA efforts because the existing institutional mechanisms supported the champion’s capacity to influence the behavior of people and produce collective action towards CCA.     

Erratum to: Quantification of land use/land cover changes in Pearl River Delta and its impact on regional climate in summer using numerical modeling

Regional Environmental Change -     

Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

Wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is closely linked to climate. A warmer and drier climate, as predicted, will negatively affect the productivity of PPR wetlands and the services they provide. The effect of climate change on wetland productivity, however, will not only depend on natural processes (e.g., evapotranspiration), but also on human responses. Agricultural land use, the predominant use in the PPR, is unlikely to remain static as climate change affects crop yields and prices. Land use in uplands surrounding wetlands will further affect wetland water budgets and hence wetland productivity. The net impact of climate change on wetland productivity will therefore depend on both the direct effects of climate change on wetlands and the indirect effects on upland land use. We examine the effect of climate change and land-use response on semipermanent wetland productivity by combining an economic model of agricultural land-use change with an ecological model of wetland dynamics. Our results suggest that the climate change scenarios evaluated are likely to have profound effects on land use in the North and South Dakota PPR, with wheat displacing other crops and pasture. The combined pressure of land-use and climate change significantly reduces wetland productivity. In a climate scenario with a +4 °C increase in temperature, our model predicts that almost the entire region may lack the wetland productivity necessary to support wetland-dependent species.