Trends in speciated fine particulate matter and visibility across monitoring networks in the Southeastern United States

Trends in fine particulate matter <2.5 microm in diameter (PM2.5) and visibility in the Southeastern United States were evaluated for sites in the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments, Speciated Trends Network, and Southeastern Aerosol Research and Characterization Study networks. These analyses are part of the technical assessment by Visibility Improvement-State and Tribal Association of the Southeast (VISTAS), the regional planning organization for the southeastern states, in support of State Implementation Plans for the regional haze rule. At all of the VISTAS IMPROVE sites, ammonium sulfate and organic carbon (OC) are the largest and second largest contributors, respectively, to light extinction on both the 20% haziest and 20% clearest days. Ammonium nitrate, elemental carbon (EC), soils, and coarse particles make comparatively small contributions to PM2.5 mass and light extinction on most days at the Class I areas. At Southern Appalachian sites, the 20% haziest days occur primarily in the late spring to fall, whereas at coastal sites, the 20% haziest days can occur through out the year. Levels of ammonium sulfate in Class I areas are similar to those in nearby urban areas and are generally higher at the interior sites than the coastal sites. Concentrations of OC, ammonium nitrate, and, sometimes, EC, tend to be higher in the urban areas than in nearby Class I areas, although differences in measurement methods complicate comparisons between networks. Results support regional controls of sulfur dioxide for both regional haze and PM2.5 implementation and suggest that controls of local sources of OC, EC, or nitrogen oxides might also be considered for urban areas that are not attaining the annual National Ambient Air Quality Standard for PM2.5.     

Temporal variability of selected air toxics in the United States

Ambient measurements of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs, air toxics) collected in the United States from 1990 to 2005 were analyzed for diurnal, seasonal, and/or annual variability and trends. Visual and statistical analyses were used to identify and quantify temporal variations in air toxics at national and regional levels. Sufficient data were available to analyze diurnal variability for 14 air toxics, seasonal variability for 24 air toxics, and annual trends for 26 air toxics. Four diurnal variation patterns were identified and labeled invariant, nighttime peak, morning peak, and daytime peak. Three distinct seasonal patterns were identified and labeled invariant, cool, and warm. Multiple air toxics showed consistent decreasing trends over three trend periods, 1990–2005, 1995–2005, and 2000–2005. Trends appeared to be relatively consistent within chemically similar pollutant groups. Hydrocarbons such as benzene, 1,3-butadiene, styrene, xylene, and toluene decreased by approximately 5% or more per year at more than half of all monitoring sites. Concentrations of carbonyl compounds such as formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and propionaldehyde were equally likely to have increased or decreased at monitoring sites. Chlorinated volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as tetrachloroethylene, dichloromethane, and methyl chloroform decreased at more than half of all monitoring sites, but decreases among these species were much more variable than among the hydrocarbons. Lead particles decreased in concentration at most monitoring sites, but trends in other metals were not consistent over time.     

Assessment of the nested grid model estimates for driving regional visibility models in the southwestern United States

The Nested Grid Model (NGM) is a primitive-equation meteorological model that is routinely exercised over North America for forecasting purposes by the National Meteorological Center. While prognostic meteorological models are being increasingly used to drive air quality models, their use in conducting annual simulations requires significant resources. NGM estimates of wind fields and other meteorological variables provide an attractive alternative since they are typically archived and readily available for an entire year. Preliminary evaluation of NGM winds during the summer of 1992 for application to the region surrounding the Grand Canyon National Park showed serious shortcomings. The NGM winds along the borders between California, Arizona and Mexico tend to be northwesterly with a speed of about 6 m/sec, while the observed flow is predominantly southerly at about 2-5 m/sec. The mesoscale effect of a thermal low pressure area over the highly heated Southern California and western Arizona deserts does not appear to be represented by the NGM because of its coarse resolution and the use of sparse observations in that region. Tracer simulations and statistical evaluation against special high resolution observations of winds in the southwest United States clearly demonstrate the northwest bias in NGM winds and its adverse effect on predictions of an air quality model. The "enhanced" NGM winds, in which selected wind observations are incorporated in the NGM winds using a diagnostic meteorological model provide additional confirmation on the primary cause of the northwest bias. This study has demonstrated that in situations where limited resources prevent the use of prognostic meteorological models, previously archived coarse resolution wind fields in which additional observations are incorporated to correct known biases provide an attractive option.     

High Resolution Characterization of Ozone Data for Sites Located in Forested Areas of the United States

Eight years of ambient monitoring data (1978-1985) were used to characterize O₃ concentrations in eight forested areas of the United States. The analysis focused on the annual number of occurrences of hourly averaged O₃ concentrations ≥0.07, 0.08, and 0.10 ppm during the growing season (April-October) as well as during the early (April-June) and late (July-October) portions of the growing season. On the average, within those areas studied, elevated O₃ concentrations occurred more often in the Piedmont/Mountain/Ridge-Valley and Ohio River Valley areas than elsewhere. In the eastern United States, 1978, 1980, and 1983 were generally the years with the most occurrences of elevated O₃ concentrations. In these years, the later part (July-October) of the growing season experienced more elevated concentrations than the earlier part. The results presented in this analysis were used to develop recommendations for future O₃ effects research with respect to forested areas and related exposure regimes.     

The Characterization of Ozone Data for Sites Located in Forested Areas of the Eastern United States

Six years (1978-1983) of ozone monitoring data from sites located within six forested areas were examined. Areas that experienced the lowest to the highest ozone exposures were located in (1) northern New England/New York and upper Great Lakes, (2) New York/Pennsylvania/Maryland, (3) southeastern/southern, and (4) New Jersey pinelands. In general, higher ozone concentrations were observed in 1978, 1980 and 1983 as compared to the other three years examined. Ozone concentrations varied considerably within the areas. Recommendations for additional ozone monitoring sites are made. A concentrated effort should be made to examine ozone monitoring data from subsequent years (1984, 1985, and 1986) to explore whether the 6-year period 1978 through 1983 is representative of the annual variability of ozone concentrations over eastern forested areas. To better understand the relationship between ozone exposure and possible forest effects, we recommend that the temporal distributions of elevated ozone concentrations over a growing season be examined. The occurrence of elevated ozone levels during specific growth periods during a season may be an important aspect that biologists may wish to explore.     

Impaired visibility: the air pollution people see

Almost every home and office contains a portrayal of a scenic landscape whether on a calendar, postcard, photograph, or painting. The most sought after locations boast a scenic landscape right outside their window. No matter what the scene – mountains, skyscrapers, clouds, or pastureland – clarity and vividness are essential to the image. Air pollution can degrade scenic vistas, and in extreme cases, completely obscure them. Particulate matter suspended in the air is the main cause of visibility degradation. Particulate matter affects visibility in multiple ways: obscures distant objects, drains the contrast from a scene, and discolors the sky. Visibility is an environmental quality that is valued for aesthetic reasons that are difficult to express or quantify. Human psychology and physiology are sensitive to visual input. Visibility has been monitored throughout the world but there are few places where it is a protected resource. Existing health-based regulations are weak in terms of visibility protection. Various techniques, including human observation, light transmission measurements, digital photography, and satellite imaging, are used to monitor visibility. As with air pollution, trends in visibility vary spatially and temporally. Emissions from the developing world and large scale events such as dust storms and wildfires affect visibility around much of the globe.     

Weekday/Weekend differences in ambient air pollutant concentrations in atlanta and the southeastern United States

The authors quantified changes between mean weekday and weekend ambient concentrations of ozone (O3) precursors (volatile organic compounds [VOC], carbon monoxide [CO], nitric oxide, and oxides of nitrogen [NOx]) in Atlanta and surrounding areas to observe how weekend precursor emission levels influenced ambient O3 levels. The authors analyzed CO, nitric oxide (NO), and NO, measurements from 1998 to 2002 and speciated VOC from 1996 to 2003. They observed a strong weekend effect in the Atlanta region, with median daytime (6:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time) decreases of 62%, 57%, and 31%, respectively, in the ambient levels of NO, NOx, and CO from Wednesdays to Sundays, during the ozone season (March to October). They also observed significant decreases in ambient VOC levels between Wednesdays and Sundays, with decreases of 28% for the sum of aromatic compounds and 19% for the sum of Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations target compounds. Despite large reductions in O3 precursor levels on weekends, day-of-week differences in O3 mixing ratios in and near Atlanta were much smaller. Averaging overall O3-season days, the 1-hr and 8-hr mean peak daily O3 maxima on Sundays were 4.5% and 2.3% lower, respectively, than their mean levels on Wednesdays (median of 14 site differences), with no sites showing statistically significant Wednesday-to-Sunday differences. When restricted to high-O3 days (highest 3 peak O3 days per day of week per site per year), the 1-hr and 8-hr Sunday O3 mixing ratios were 11% and 10% lower, respectively, than their mean peak levels on Wednesdays (median of 14 site differences), with 6 of 14 sites showing statistically significant Wednesday-to-Sunday differences. The analyses of weekday/weekend differences in O3 precursor concentrations show that different emission reductions than normally take place each weekend will be required to achieve major reductions in ambient ozone levels in the Atlanta area.     

A Comparison of Measured and Simulated Ozone Concentrations in the Rural Areas of the Eastern United States during Summer 1995

ABSTRACT

The recent regulatory actions toward a longer-term (i.e., 8-hr) average ozone standard have brought forth the potential for many rural areas in the eastern United States to be in noncompliance. However, since a majority of these rural areas have generally few sources of anthropogenic emissions, the measured ozone levels primarily reflect the effects of the transport of ozone and its precursor pollutants and natural emissions. While photochemical grid models have been applied to urban areas to develop ozone mitigation measures, these efforts have been limited to high ozone episode events only and do not adequately cover rural regions. In this study, we applied a photochemical modeling system, RAMS/UAM-V, to the eastern United States from June 1-August 31, 1995. The purpose of the study is to examine the predictive ability of the modeling system at rural monitoring stations that are part of the Clean Air Status Trends Network (CASTNet) and the Gaseous Pollutant Monitoring Program (GPMP).

The results show that the measured daily 1-hr ozone maxima and the seasonal average of the daily 1-hr ozone maxima are in better agreement with the predictions of the modeling system than those for the daily 8-hr ozone maxima. Also, the response of the modeling system in reproducing the measured range of ozone levels over the diurnal cycle is poor, suggesting the need for improvement in the treatment of the physical and chemical processes of the modeling system during the nighttime and morning hours if it is to be used to address the 8-hr ozone standard.     

Ozone Regimes in or near Forests of the Western United States: Part 2. Factors Influencing Regional Patterns

Abstract

Ozone levels in or near forests of the western United States resulted from transport of ozone from urban areas, photochemical formation of ozone in nonurban areas from either natural or manmade precursors, and downward mixing of ozone from the tropospheric reservoir. Similarities in ozone exposure regimes were clearly associated with ozone characteristics, such as the shape of the diurnal curve in hourly ozone concentrations and the magnitudes of ozone levels. No single site characteristic dominated across the region. Eight classes of ozone regimes were identified: largeurban, medium-urban, small-urban, urban downwind-urban, urban-transport, rural, rural-remote, and remote. Sites in the western United States can be classified according to these classes. Of the sites included in the analysis, Olympic National Park, Colorado National Monument, Redwood National Park, Grand Canyon, and Crook County in Oregon showed the lowest impact from urban-generated ozone. The greatest impact of manmade ozone was found in forests of southern and central California, and to some extent in Rocky Mountain National Park and along the western slopes of the Cascades in Washington.

The eight groups of sites showing similar ozone exposure regimes as identified by Böhm et al.¹ corresponded closely with the eight classes of ozone regimes, indicating that regional similarities in ozone exposure regimes can be linked to ozone formation and transport processes despite a lack of geographic cohesion. Sixty-four percent of variance in ozone exposure regimes can be expressed in a twodimensional space called diurnal-curve space. Group membership is more cohesive in diurnal-curve than geographic space. Applications of diurnal-curve space include (1) a sensitive regional analysis of the nature and magnitudes of ozone exposure regimes in or near western forests; (2) a pro-active means for identifying sites with changing ozone exposure regimes; and (3) guidelines from which biologists can develop realistic experimental fumigation protocols. It is suggested that univariate statistics, such as 7-hour mean, 24-hour mean, SUM06, and SUM08, cannot identify up to 39% of the variance in ozone exposure regimes among sites in or near forests of the western United States.     

Future land use and land cover influences on regional biogenic emissions and air quality in the United States

A regional modeling system was applied with inputs from global climate and chemistry models to quantify the effects of global change on future biogenic emissions and their impacts on ozone and biogenic secondary organic aerosols (BSOA) in the US. Biogenic emissions in the future are influenced by projected changes in global and regional climates and by variations in future land use and land cover (LULC). The modeling system was applied for five summer months for the present-day case (1990–1999, Case 1) and three future cases covering 2045–2054. Individual future cases were: present-day LULC (Case 2); projected-future LULC (Case 3); and future LULC with designated regions of tree planting for carbon sequestration (Case 4). Results showed changing future meteorology with present-day LULC (Case 2) increased average isoprene and monoterpene emission rates by 26% and 20% due to higher temperature and solar insolation. However when LULC was changed together with climate (Case 3), predicted isoprene and monoterpene emissions decreased by 52% and 31%, respectively, due primarily to projected cropland expansion. The reduction was less, at 31% and 14% respectively, when future LULC changes were accompanied by regions of tree planting (Case 4). Despite the large decrease in biogenic emission, future average daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) ozone was found to increase between +8 ppbv and +10 ppbv due to high future anthropogenic emissions and global chemistry conditions. Among the future cases, changing LULC resulted in spatially varying future ozone differences of ?5 ppbv to +5 ppbv when compared with present-day case. Future BSOA changed directly with the estimated monoterpene emissions. BSOA increased by 8% with current LULC (Case 2) but decreased by 45%–28% due to future LULC changes. Overall, the results demonstrated that on a regional basis, changes in LULC can offset temperature driven increases in biogenic emissions, and, thus, LULC projection is an important factor to consider in the study of future regional air quality.     

Evaluation of risks from urban air pollutants in the southeast Chicago area

Region V of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has conducted a comprehensive study of cancer risks from urban exposure to air pollutants in the Southeast Chicago area. This study estimated emissions of a list of 30 air carcinogens from a broad range of nontraditional, as well as traditional, source types. Using dispersion modeling and applying the appropriate unit risk factors and population data, this study estimated the risks at each receptor location and the total number of cancer cases attributable to air pollution in the area. This analysis estimated that current concentrations would cause 77 cases of cancer over the next 70 years, an average risk of 2.0 X 10(-4). Contributions from different source types and different pollutants were estimated. The total contribution from nontraditional source types was less than 0.3 percent. Although these estimates are highly uncertain, the study does suggest the nature and general magnitude of cancer risks from air pollution in the urban area studied.     

Occurrence of boscalid and other selected fungicides in surface water and groundwater in three targeted use areas in the United States

Although the use of the insecticide γ-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) is now prohibited in many countries because of its hazardousness, stockpiles of γ-HCH still exist. In this study, we subjected γ-HCH to mechanochemical (MC) treatment with a planetary ball mill in the presence of CaO to investigate the feasibility of using this method for the treatment of γ-HCH stockpiles. We confirmed the degradation of γ-HCH and investigated the degradation mechanism. The major intermediates were identified to be 1,3,4,5,6-pentachlorocyclohexene (γ-PCCH) and chlorobenzenes (CBzs). Analysis of the steric structure of γ-HCH and identification of the degradation intermediates suggested that successive dehydrochlorination led to the formation of trichlorobenzenes. Products of further degradation (dichlorobenzenes, monochlorobenzene, and benzene) were also detected. Surprisingly, methane and ethane were also detected, which suggests cleavage of the C-C bonds of the cyclohexane ring and hydrogenation. All of the chlorine atoms in the γ-HCH could be transformed into inorganic chloride compounds by the MC treatment with CaO. Our results indicate that γ-HCH can be completely dechlorinated by MC treatment.     

Modeling Analyses of the Effects of Changes in Nitrogen Oxides Emissions from the Electric Power Sector on Ozone Levels in the Eastern United States

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the changes in ambient ozone concentrations simulated by the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for summer 2002 under three different nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emission scenarios. Two emission scenarios represent best estimates of 2002 and 2004 emissions; they allow assessment of the impact of the NO_x emissions reductions imposed on the utility sector by the NO_x State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call. The third scenario represents a hypothetical rendering of what NO_x emissions would have been in 2002 if no emission controls had been imposed on the utility sector. Examination of the modeled median and 95th percentile daily maximum 8-hr average ozone concentrations reveals that median ozone levels estimated for the 2004 emission scenario were less than those modeled for 2002 in the region most affected by the NO_x SIP Call. Comparison of the “no-control” with the “2002” scenario revealed that ozone concentrations would have been much higher in much of the eastern United States if the utility sector had not implemented NO_x emission controls; exceptions occurred in the immediate vicinity of major point sources where increased NO titration tends to lower ozone levels.     

Impact of underestimating the effects of cold temperature on motor vehicle start emissions of air toxics in the United States

Analyses of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) certification data, California Air Resources Board surveillance testing data, and EPA research testing data indicated that EPA's MOBILE6.2 emission factor model substantially underestimates emissions of gaseous air toxics occurring during vehicle starts at cold temperatures for light-duty vehicles and trucks meeting EPA Tier 1 and later standards. An unofficial version of the MOBILE6.2 model was created to account for these underestimates. When this unofficial version of the model was used to project emissions into the future, emissions increased by almost 100% by calendar year 2030, and estimated modeled ambient air toxics concentrations increased by 6-84%, depending on the pollutant. To address these elevated emissions, EPA recently finalized standards requiring reductions of emissions when engines start at cold temperatures.     

The Gas Supply Situation in the United States

The body of information presented in this paper is directed to those individuals who require information on the present natural gas supply and demand relationship and the prospects for future changes, including individuals concerned with air quality control and the use of natural gas for combating air pollution.

If natural gas could continue to capture large shares of the energy market, as in the past when supply was not a growth inhibiting factor, annual demand for gas is projected to increase to 34.5 and 46.4 trillion cubic feet in 1980 and 1990, respectively. Annual production levels which could be supported by presently proven reserves and anticipated future reserve additions are estimated to peak in the mid-1970’s and decline to about 18 trillion cubic feet in 1990.

When viewed from the perspective of anticipated indigenous supply deficiencies, the acquisition of supplemental sources of gas becomes of paramount importance. Pipeline imports, the only substantive supplemental source presently available, could almost double by 1980 and be about 2 trillion cubic feet annually in 1990.

Available volumes of gas from Alaska could be 0.7 trillion cubic feet in 1980 and could increase to 2.3 trillion cubic feet annually by 1990. Actual initial deliveries of gas are inextricably related to construction of an oil pipeline from Prudhoe Bay. Construction delays postpone initial delivery dates for gas as well as oil.

Advancements in cryogenic transportation and storage technologies have made the heretofore largely untapped supplies of gas from several countries with limited internal markets available to the United States as LNG. Annual LNG imports could be about 0.3 trillion cubic feet in 1975 and perhaps 2 and 4 trillion cubic feet by 1980 and 1990, respectively.

Pipeline quality gas from coal presents the prospect for a supplemental source of gaseous fuel independent of foreign sources and free from balance of payments problems. The first pipeline quality gas from coal may be expected by 1976, and by 1980 perhaps 0.3 trillion cubic feet could be provided annually from this source; in 1990, 3.3 trillion cubic feet might be available. An additional, but presently unqualified, source of synthetic gas will be the conversion of liquid hydrocarbons.

In the aggregate, supplemental gas supplies are anticipated to total about 4.6 and 11.5 trillion cubic feet annually by 1980 and 1990, respectively. While demand for gas is anticipated to increase, domestic conventional gas production is projected to peak in the mid-1970’s and decrease somewhat thereafter. As a consequence, a continuing gas supply-demand imbalance is anticipated.     

Real-time bias-adjusted O3 and PM2.5 air quality index forecasts and their performance evaluations over the continental United States

The National Air Quality Forecast Capacity (NAQFC) system, which links NOAA’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) meteorological model with EPA’s Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, provided operational ozone (O₃) and experimental fine particular matter (PM_2.5) forecasts over the continental United States (CONUS) during 2008. This paper describes the implementation of a real-time Kalman Filter (KF) bias-adjustment technique to improve the accuracy of O₃ and PM_2.5 forecasts at discrete monitoring locations. The operational surface-level O₃ and PM_2.5 forecasts from the NAQFC system were post-processed by the KF bias-adjusted technique using near real-time hourly O₃ and PM_2.5 observations obtained from EPA’s AIRNow measurement network. The KF bias-adjusted forecasts were created daily, providing 24-h hourly bias-adjusted forecasts for O₃ and PM_2.5 at all AIRNow monitoring sites within the CONUS domain. The bias-adjustment post-processing implemented in this study requires minimal computational cost; requiring less than 10 min of CPU on a single processor Linux machine to generate 24-h hourly bias-adjusted forecasts over the entire CONUS domain.The results show that the real-time KF bias-adjusted forecasts for both O₃ and PM_2.5 have performed as well as or even better than the previous studies when the same technique was applied to the historical O₃ and PM_2.5 time series from archived AQF in earlier years. Compared to the raw forecasts, the KF forecasts displayed significant improvement in the daily maximum 8-h O₃ and daily mean PM_2.5 forecasts in terms of both discrete (i.e., reduced errors, increased correlation coefficients, and index of agreement) and categorical (increased hit rate and decreased false alarm ratio) evaluation metrics at almost all locations during the study period in 2008.