浙江省农业生物灾害的现状、趋势及减灾对策蒋学辉章强华

病虫草鼠是农业的主要生物灾害.本文分析了浙江省农业生物灾害的现状和今后农作物重大病虫害的发生趋势,提出了农业有害生物的控制对策.     

农业有害生物灾变风险预警技术的探讨

把农业有害生物灾害亦当作自然灾害的一种进行剖析并探讨其灾变风险预警技术,提出依据不同灾变过程中所表现的警源、警兆、警情等不同风险程度的各因素统计指标,精选组成灾变预警指标体系并组建多维预警逻辑模型。通过对警源、警兆、警情中主要生物与非生物因素的定量或定性分级,分析各自对灾变的影响作用,计算灾变风险预警综合指标值,确定农业有害生物灾变预警等级。据此建立了棉铃虫灾变预警与防治辅助决策系统(MLCYJJC-CDROM)并指导控害减灾,预警准确率为89.7％,使灾变警级预警更加符合实际,指导防治更有科学依据。本文还对MLCYJJC-CDROM的系统结构、信息处理与实际应用作了解析与讨论。     

突发性地震灾害危机的预警和应急管理机制

借鉴SARS事件的经验教训,探讨了如何加快构建突发性地震灾害危机的预测预警、应急处理、信息发布和宣传教育等四个方面的管理机制,并提出了建立地震灾害预警等级及其相应的应急预案和信息发布措施的新思维.     

自然灾害预警信息与传播手段自动适配策略研究——以湖北为例

为了提高预警信号发布的速度,节约人工操作选取预警传播手段的时间,提升信息发布的经济效益和社会效益,运用灰色关联分析法对某一地区多发的自然灾害所造成的损失进行定量化分析,根据灾害所造成的损失,提出了综合致灾强度指数的概念及计算方法.同时研究了预警信息发布效果评估所对应的评价指标与各种传播手段之间的关系,提出了预警传播效能...     

极端天气有哪些

正台风2014年1月15日,上海市政府办公厅发布了《关于本市应对极端天气停课安排和务工处理实施意见》的通知,当日市政府新闻通气会也披露了新制定的《上海市空气重污染专项应急预案》,通知和预案都明确了极端天气红色预警将成学校停课的"发令枪"。今后遇到极端灾害性天气时,只要当日22:00前发布红色预警且22:00维持,或22:00~次日6:00发过红色预警,中小学校及幼托机构次日均全天停课。职工因气象灾害和空气污染红色预警造成误工的,用人单位不得作迟到、缺勤处理,不得扣减工资福利。适用该通知和预案的红色预警包括台风、暴雨、暴雪、道路结冰红色预警和空气污染红色预警。那么这些极端天气红色预警的图标与标准是怎么样的呢?     

小麦白粉病气候变化响应及动态预警

小麦白粉病是危害我国小麦生产的主要病害之一,华北黄淮地区作为冬小麦主产区,其小麦白粉病趋于加重。及时准确地进行白粉病的监测预警对采取有效防治措施、保护小麦安全生产有重大意义。基于北京市、天津市、河北省、山东省、山西省和河南省的小麦白粉病发生情况和气候特点,本研究量化了小麦白粉病对气候变化的响应水平,利用Bayes准则客观确定了小麦白粉病发生的等级阈值,考虑小麦生长前期和关键期的气象条件,提出了相应的评估模型。研究结果表明,所提模型完全一致的准确率为50%~90%,基本一致的准确率达85.7%~100%,能实时根据气象条件及时进行预警指导病害防治。     

福建气象干旱风险监测预警和评估技术

利用1961-2017年逐日气温、降水、风速气象资料,根据国家标准"气象干旱等级"中定义的MCI指数,结合干旱历史记载,采用多年平均值无量纲化处理、百分位数法确定致旱因子权系数和阈值,构建与国家干旱业务体系相一致的、适合福建的气象干旱监测预警和强度评估体系:确定全省范围内监测气象干旱可能带来灾害影响的临界阈值,用于发布干旱预警;继而根据符合预警的历史干旱过程,研制了福建全省和9地市不同区域气象干旱过程强度定量化评估指标,用于动态的过程强度评估、相似过程比较和历史排位分析等。经过2018年实际业务检验、2018年历史相似年份对比分析和历史重大干旱过程的验证,表明所确定的指标具有很好的业务应用价值。通过系统平台业务化建设,实现了对区域气象干旱风险实时动态监测预警、未来一周干旱预估和过程定量化评估,为干旱灾害防御和风险控制提供了科学的依据。     

集中式饮用水水源地安全预警系统框架的研建

随着经济迅速发展和工业化进程的加快.人水矛盾日益尖锐,水源地水质污染、水量衰竭已成为一个全球性问题,加之频繁发生的水源地突发性事故,致使区域发展、国家安全乃至人类生存受到严重的威胁.通过集中式饮用水水源地安全风险分析,明确饮用水水源地内涵,从一般的安全预警体系出发建立了饮用水水源地安全预警逻辑体系;构建了基于DPSR概念模型的水源地预警指标体系框架,建立了BP安全预警模型;最终形成了完整的集中式饮用水水源地安全预警管理框架体系.     

洪涝灾害后医务应急护理远程指挥系统设计

为了提升应急指挥系统的应急响应能力,结合现代化信息技术研究并设计了一种洪涝灾害后医务应急护理远程指挥系统,科学预测以及评估突发性洪涝灾害事件的危险性。运用应急决策处理逻辑和多个信息子系统的联动,全方位监控重点目标灾情,获取可靠的洪涝灾害预警预报信息。根据应急护理状态信息以及应急医务资源配置信息,形成动态的事故处理预案以及医务应急资源调度方案,并组建洪涝灾害后医务应急调度模型,运用遗传算法对模型进行求解,实现洪涝灾害后医务应急资源的调度。     

面向灾害后果的应急预案体系启动模式

按照我国应急响应机制,某地区发生突发事件后,根据灾害后果不同需要启动不同的预案体系。通过灾害后果的系统分析,研究了预案体系的启动机制,梳理了预案体系的演化模式,从演化时间维度建立了预案体系点、链、网3种启动模式,并系统分析了各启动模式及其相应的结构特征。最后,通过实例说明了预案体系的3种启动模式。研究结论有利于预案体系的合理启动,提高了突发事件应对的有效性,为应急预案体系的启动决策提供了理论支持。     

Making sense of natural hazard mitigation: Personal,social and cultural influences

Worldwide, recognition of the growing risk faced by communities in many countries from natural hazard events has stimulated interest in promoting people's capacity to co-exist with often beneficial, but occasionally hazardous, natural processes by encouraging the adoption of preparedness measures. Starting from recognition that levels of hazard preparedness are generally low, this paper examines how people's decisions about hazard mitigation derive from how they interpret the hazards, their relationship with the hazards and the sources of information about hazards. It describes how interpretive processes at the person (outcome expectancy), community (community participation and collective efficacy) and societal (empowerment and trust) level interact to predict levels of hazard preparedness. The data support the argument that the effectiveness of public hazard education strategies community preparedness can be increased by integrating risk management activities with community development strategies. The cross-cultural validity of the model is discussed using data from communities in New Zealand, Indonesia and Japan. Testing the model across countries and hazards (e.g. earthquakes, volcanic hazards) supports its all-hazards and cross-cultural applicability. The theoretical (e.g. identifying the degree to which the processes that underpin how people respond to hazard threats are culturally equivalent) and practical (e.g. providing a common basis for collaborative learning and research between countries and providing risk management agencies in different cultures with access to a wider range of risk management options) implications of the cross-cultural equivalence of the model are discussed.     

Operationalizing risk perception and preparedness behavior research for a multi-hazard context

Increasingly, citizens are being asked to take a more active role in disaster risk reduction (DRR), as decentralization of hazard governance has shifted greater responsibility for hazard preparedness actions onto individuals. Simultaneously, the taxonomy of hazards considered for DRR has expanded to include medical and social crises alongside natural hazards. Risk perception research emerged to support decision-makers with understanding how people characterize and evaluate different hazards to anticipate behavioral response and guide risk communication. Since its inception, the risk perception concept has been incorporated into many behavioral theories, which have been applied to examine preparedness for numerous hazard types. Behavioral theories have had moderate success in predicting or explaining preparedness behaviors; however, they are typically applied to a single hazard type and there is a gap in understanding which theories (if any) are suited for examining multiple hazard types simultaneously. This paper first reviews meta-analyses of behavioral theories to better understand performance. Universal lessons learnt are summarized for survey design. Second, theoretically based preparedness studies for floods, earthquakes, epidemics, and terrorism are reviewed to assess the conceptual requirements for a ‘multi-hazard’ preparedness approach. The development of an online preparedness self-assessment and learning platform is discussed.     

Health care system hazard vulnerability analysis: an assessment of all public hospitals in Abu Dhabi

Hazard vulnerability analysis (HVA) is used to risk‐stratify potential threats, measure the probability of those threats, and guide disaster preparedness. The primary objective of this project was to analyse the level of disaster preparedness in public hospitals in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, utilising the HVA tool in collaboration with the Disaster Medicine Section at Harvard Medical School. The secondary objective was to review each facility's disaster plan and make recommendations based on the HVA findings. Based on the review, this article makes eight observations, including on the need for more accurate data; better hazard assessment capabilities; enhanced decontamination capacities; and the development of hospital‐specific emergency management programmes, a hospital incident command system, and a centralised, dedicated regional disaster coordination centre. With this project, HVAs were conducted successfully for the first time in health care facilities in Abu Dhabi. This study thus serves as another successful example of multidisciplinary emergency preparedness processes.     

Influences on stakeholder support for a wildfire early warning system in a UK protected area

Projected increases in wildfire risk and impacts to human populations in the UK have prompted the installation of expanded management approaches such as early warning systems (EWSs). Newer iterations of wildfire EWSs help mitigate risk through rapid detection, often using high-resolution monitoring technology and instantaneous information collection. While existing research suggests that local social context plays an important role in the effective application of EWSs, little is known about factors that contribute to stakeholder support for these technocratic systems and their successful implementation in protected areas. This study examines support for an EWS in Northumberland National Park, UK, using focus groups with a broad range of local stakeholders. We found that diverse stakeholder understandings of wildfire, different perceptions of wildfire risk, and varied identification of values at risk collectively help explain mixed support for the EWS. Mixed support also was an outgrowth of distrust between several stakeholder groups, indicating a need for improved communication regarding wildfire risk management across stakeholder groups. Results suggest that EWSs adopted in multi-use protected areas shared by a range of stakeholder are most likely to be successful when stakeholders have shared understandings of the hazard and opportunities for collective planning to address its risks. We conclude that EWSs are a viable approach to wildfire risk reduction, but there needs to be a critical consideration of pre-existing stakeholder dynamics for effective EWS implementation.     

Hurricane threat in Florida: examining household perceptions,beliefs, and actions

Households in hurricane-prone regions respond to hurricane threat in numerous ways. Perceptions about their risk and other factors are thought to influence individuals’ decisions to take protective actions for hurricanes. This research investigates the perceptions, behavioral intentions, and actual protective actions of a sample of residents in Miami-Dade County, Florida. We use unique data collected via a telephone survey to investigate a set of factors including risk perception, perceived local government readiness for a hurricane, past hurricane experience, hazard information exposure, and demographics, which have been posited to influence perceived hurricane preparedness, intent to evacuate under hurricane threat, and actual hurricane preparedness. The analytic results show that risk perception was positively associated with perceived preparedness, intent to evacuate, and one of the actual preparedness measures. Perceived local government readiness for a hurricane also was positively related to perceived preparedness and an actual protective measure. The results for other factors, including socio-demographics, varied by dependent variable. Following a report of the results, we discuss the research and policy implications of our findings.     

Predicting self-evacuation in Australian bushfire

Australian bushfire safety policy does not require mandatory evacuation from bushfire as practiced in North America and other jurisdictions. Australian householders confronted with a bushfire threat must decide whether they remain and defend their property or evacuate. A better understanding of factors that influence householders’ decisions to self-evacuate can inform bushfire safety policy. Studies have identified variables that motivate evacuation from various hazards, including wildfire, but factors shaping the decision processes are not well understood. The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) provided a theoretical framework of factors influencing protective response to hazard to analyse the actions of householders affected by two bushfires. Three factors that predict self-evacuation were identified: the perception that evacuation is effective in protecting personal safety; the receipt of official warnings; and perceived threat to property. These findings reinforce the importance of increasing householder awareness and sensitivity to the danger posed by bushfire; the adequacy of people’s bushfire preparedness; the effectiveness of early evacuation in protecting personal safety; and the potential persuasiveness of accurate, relevant and timely official warning messages in influencing safe evacuation from bushfire.     

Cross‐cultural comparisons between the earthquake preparedness models of Taiwan and New Zealand

Taiwan and New Zealand are both located in the Pacific Rim where 81 per cent of the world's largest earthquakes occur. Effective programmes for increasing people's preparedness for these hazards are essential. This paper tests the applicability of the community engagement theory of hazard preparedness in two distinct cultural contexts. Structural equation modelling analysis provides support for this theory. The paper suggests that the close fit between theory and data that is achieved by excluding trust supports the theoretical prediction that familiarity with a hazard negates the need to trust external sources. The results demonstrate that the hazard preparedness theory is applicable to communities that have previously experienced earthquakes and are therefore familiar with the associated hazards and the need for earthquake preparedness. The paper also argues that cross‐cultural comparisons provide opportunities for collaborative research and learning as well as access to a wider range of potential earthquake risk management strategies.     

外来入侵物种的危害及其安全管理问题

简述了我国外来有害生物入侵的现状、趋势与危害，介绍了与生物入侵有关的几个基本原理，着重探讨了我国外来入侵物种安全管理上存在的主要问题及其对策思路。研究认为，加入WTO意味着境外危险性有害生物传入我国的风险有所加大，但我们仍然存在着认识有待提高，法律法规有待完善，以及管理体制不健全、基础研究有待加强、对外合作与内部教育有待改进等亟待解决的问题。建议以“预防为主，及早发现、消灭和控制”为指导，建立健全我国的生物入侵预警、检验监测及快速反应机制，和重大外来有害生物应急预案，以及政策和经济激励与制约机制等，使外来入侵物种造成的危害最小化。