Development of a Quantitative Pasture Phosphorus Management Tool Using the SWAT Model1

Abstract: Assessment tools to evaluate phosphorus loss from agricultural lands allow conservation planners to evaluate the impact of management decisions on water quality. Available tools to predict phosphorus loss from agricultural fields are either: (1) qualitative indices with limited applicability to address offsite water quality standards, or (2) models which are prohibitively complex for application by most conservation planners. The purpose of this research was to develop a simple interface for a comprehensive hydrologic/water quality model to allow its usage by farmers and conservation planners. The Pasture Phosphorus Management (PPM) Calculator was developed to predict average annual phosphorus (P) losses from pastures under a variety of field conditions and management options. PPM Calculator is a vastly simplified interface for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that requires no knowledge of SWAT by the user. PPM Calculator was validated using 33 months of data on four pasture fields in northwestern Arkansas. This tool has been extensively applied in the Lake Eucha/Spavinaw Basin in northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. PPM Calculator allows conservation planners to take advantage of the predictive capacity of a comprehensive hydrologic water quality model typically reserved for use by hydrologists and engineers. This research demonstrates the applicability of existing water quality models in the development of user friendly P management tools.     

STREAM PHOSPHORUS EXPORTS FROM WATERSHEDS WITH CONTRASTING LAND USES IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO1

: The export of dissolved molybdate reactive phosphorus (DMRP) from 22 watersheds in the Duffin Creek drainage basin near Toronto Ontario was measured over a 25-month period. The annual average loss varied from 0.027 to 2.11 kg P/ha. Phosphorus levels in a number of watersheds were strongly influenced by effluent from a sewage treatment plant which contributed about 68 percent of the annual DMRP input to Duffin Creek. An analysis of 12 watersheds which did not contain major point pollution sources revealed that DMRP concentration and losses had a significant positive correlation with crop area and a strong negative association with forest, abandoned farm land, and area of sand + sandy loam soils. The causal relationships underlying these simple correlations are difficult to evaluate because of considerable multicollinearity between land use, soil, and topographic variables. Analysis of a mass balance for the downstream reaches of Duffin Creek indicated that there was considerable retention of phosphorus in the river channel particularly during summer low flows.     

Integration of SWAT and HSPF for Simulation of Sediment Sources in Legacy Sediment‐Impacted Agricultural Watersheds

A total maximum daily load for the Chesapeake Bay requires reduction in pollutant load from sources within the Bay watersheds. The Conestoga River watershed has been identified as a major source of sediment load to the Bay. Upland loads of sediment from agriculture are a concern; however, a large proportion of the sediment load in the Conestoga River has been linked to scour of legacy sediment associated with historic millpond sites. Clarifying this distinction and identifying specific segments associated with upland vs. channel sources has important implications for future management. In order to address this important question, we combined the strengths of two widely accepted watershed management models — Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for upland agricultural processes, and Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) for instream fate and transport — to create a novel linked modeling system to predict sediment loading from critical sources in the watershed including upland and channel sources, and to aid in targeted implementation of management practices. The model indicates approximately 66% of the total sediment load is derived from instream sources, in agreement with other studies in the region and can be used to support identification of these channel source segments vs. upland source segments, further improving targeted management. The innovated linked SWAT‐HSPF model implemented in this study is useful for other watersheds where both upland agriculture and instream processes are important sources of sediment load.     

A Regional Modeling Framework of Phosphorus Sources and Transport in Streams of the Southeastern United States1

García, Ana María, Anne B. Hoos, and Silvia Terziotti, 2011. A Regional Modeling Framework of Phosphorus Sources and Transport in Streams of the Southeastern United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):991‐1010. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00517.x Abstract: We applied the SPARROW model to estimate phosphorus transport from catchments to stream reaches and subsequent delivery to major receiving water bodies in the Southeastern United States (U.S.). We show that six source variables and five land‐to‐water transport variables are significant (p < 0.05) in explaining 67% of the variability in long‐term log‐transformed mean annual phosphorus yields. Three land‐to‐water variables are a subset of landscape characteristics that have been used as transport factors in phosphorus indices developed by state agencies and are identified through experimental research as influencing land‐to‐water phosphorus transport at field and plot scales. Two land‐to‐water variables – soil organic matter and soil pH – are associated with phosphorus sorption, a significant finding given that most state‐developed phosphorus indices do not explicitly contain variables for sorption processes. Our findings for Southeastern U.S. streams emphasize the importance of accounting for phosphorus present in the soil profile to predict attainable instream water quality. Regional estimates of phosphorus associated with soil‐parent rock were highly significant in explaining instream phosphorus yield variability. Model predictions associate 31% of phosphorus delivered to receiving water bodies to geology and the highest total phosphorus yields in the Southeast were catchments with already high background levels that have been impacted by human activity.     

Climate Sensitivity of Phosphorus Loadings to an Urban Stream

We investigate the sensitivity of phosphorus loading (mass/time) in an urban stream to variations in climate using nondimensional sensitivity, known as elasticity, methods commonly used by economists and hydrologists. Previous analyses have used bivariate elasticity methods to represent the general relationship between nutrient loading and a variable of interest, but such bivariate relations cannot reflect the complex multivariate nonlinear relationships inherent among nutrients, precipitation, temperature, and streamflow. Using fixed‐effect multivariate regression methods, we obtain two phosphorus models (nonparametric and parametric) for an urban stream with high explanatory power that can both estimate phosphorus loads and the elasticity of phosphorus loading to changes in precipitation, temperature, and streamflow. A case study demonstrates total phosphorus loading depends significantly on season, rainfall, combined sewer overflow events, and flow rate, yet the elasticity of total phosphorus to all these factors remains relatively constant throughout the year. The elasticity estimates reported here can be used to examine how nutrient loads may change under future climate conditions.     

Estimating Potential E. coli Sources in a Watershed Using Spatially Explicit Modeling Techniques1

Riebschleager, K.J., R. Karthikeyan, R. Srinivasan, and K. McKee, 2012. Estimating Potential E. coli Sources in a Watershed Using Spatially Explicit Modeling Techniques. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 745‐761. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00649.x Abstract: The Spatially Explicit Load Enrichment Calculation Tool (SELECT) was automated to characterize waste and the associated pathogens from various sources within a mixed land use watershed. Potential Escherichia coli loads in Lake Granbury watershed were estimated using spatially variable governing factors, such as land use, soil condition, and distance to streams. A new approach for characterizing E. coli loads resulting from malfunctioning on‐site wastewater treatment systems (OWTSs) was incorporated into SELECT along with the Pollutant Connectivity Factor (PCF) module. The PCF component was applied to identify areas contributing E. coli loads during runoff events by incorporating the influence of potential E. coli loading, runoff potential, and travel distance to waterbodies. Simulation results indicated livestock and wildlife are potential E. coli contributing sources in the watershed. The areas in which these sources are potentially contributing are not currently monitored for E. coli. The bacterial water quality violations seen around Lake Granbury are most likely the result of malfunctioning OWTSs and pet wastes. SELECT results demonstrate the need to evaluate each contributing source separately to effectively allocate site specific best management practices (BMPs) utilizing stakeholder inputs. It also serves as a powerful screening tool for determining areas where detailed investigation is merited.     

Streambank Soil and Phosphorus Losses Under Different Riparian Land‐Uses in Iowa1

Abstract: Phosphorus and sediment are major nonpoint source pollutants that degrade water quality. Streambank erosion can contribute a significant percentage of the phosphorus and sediment load in streams. Riparian land‐uses can heavily influence streambank erosion. The objective of this study was to compare streambank erosion along reaches of row‐cropped fields, continuous, rotational and intensive rotational grazed pastures, pastures where cattle were fenced out of the stream, grass filters and riparian forest buffers, in three physiographic regions of Iowa. Streambank erosion was measured by surveying the extent of severely eroding banks within each riparian land‐use reach and randomly establishing pin plots on subsets of those eroding banks. Based on these measurements, streambank erosion rate, erosion activity, maximum pin plot erosion rate, percentage of streambank length with severely eroding banks, and soil and phosphorus losses per unit length of stream reach were compared among the riparian land‐uses. Riparian forest buffers had the lowest streambank erosion rate (15‐46 mm/year) and contributed the least soil (5‐18 tonne/km/year) and phosphorus (2‐6 kg/km/year) to stream channels. Riparian forest buffers were followed by grass filters (erosion rates 41‐106 mm/year, soil losses 22‐47 tonne/km/year, phosphorus losses 9‐14 kg/km/year) and pastures where cattle were fenced out of the stream (erosion rates 22‐58 mm/year, soil losses 6‐61 tonne/km/year, phosphorus losses 3‐34 kg/km/year). The streambank erosion rates for the continuous, rotational, and intensive rotational pastures were 101‐171, 104‐122, and 94‐170 mm/year, respectively. The soil losses for the continuous, rotational, and intensive rotational pastures were 197‐264, 94‐266, and 124‐153 tonne/km/year, respectively, while the phosphorus losses were 71‐123, 37‐122, and 66 kg/km/year, respectively. The only significant differences for these pasture practices were found among the percentage of severely eroding bank lengths with intensive rotational grazed pastures having the least compared to the continuous and rotational grazed pastures. Row‐cropped fields had the highest streambank erosion rates (239 mm/year) and soil losses (304 tonne/km/year) and very high phosphorus losses (108 kg/km/year).     

Two‐Stage Agricultural Ditch Sediments Act as Phosphorus Sinks in West Michigan

Phosphorus (P) and sediment inputs from agricultural drainage contribute to the development of hypereutrophic conditions in lakes across the world. Two‐stage (2‐S) ditches, an agricultural best management practice gaining acceptance in the Midwestern United States, increase floodplain area within drainage ditches to help capture nutrients and sediment. While denitrification has been shown to increase on 2‐S benches, less is known about their P retention ability. This study assessed the abiotic and biotic P retention of two separate 2‐S ditches compared to their corresponding traditional reaches directly upstream within the Macatawa watershed, located in West Michigan. Soluble reactive P export was significantly reduced in 2‐S baseflow of both ditch systems. Equilibrium P concentration values suggest retention of P within the 2‐S sediment. P was bound within stable fractions in both 2‐S and traditional reaches. An analysis of P stock within the ditches revealed sediment held over 96% of total P (TP) within each reach compared to <4% in bench vegetation and periphyton combined. Turbidity, but not TP, was reduced in one study ditch, whereas TP, but not turbidity, was reduced in the other study ditch. Geomorphic stability may have been responsible for differing P retention between ditches. Ability to retain P appears to be impacted by physical as well as biogeochemical characteristics; hence, structure and age of 2‐S reaches influence P retention.     

NUTRIENT MASS BALANCE FOR THE ALBEMARLE-PAMLICO DRAINAGE BASIN,NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA, 19901

ABSTRACT: A 1990 nitrogen and phosphorus mass balance calculated for eight National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) basins in the Albemarle-Pamlico Drainage Basin indicated the importance of agricultural nonpoint sources of nitrogen and phosphorus and watershed nitrogen retention and processing capabilities. Basin total nitrogen and phosphorus input estimates were calculated for atmospheric deposition (which averaged 27 percent of total nitrogen inputs and 22 percent of total phosphorus inputs); crop fertilizer (27 and 25 percent); animal-waste (22 and 50 percent, respectively); point sources (3 percent each of total nitrogen and total phosphorus inputs); and biological nitrogen fixation (21 percent of total nitrogen inputs). Highest in-stream nitrogen and phosphorus loads were measured in predominantly agricultural drainage areas. Intermediate loads were observed in mixed agricultural/urban drainage areas; the lowest loads were measured in mixed agricultural/forested drainage areas. The difference between the sum of the nutrient input categories and the sum of the in-stream nutrient loads and crop-harvest nutrient removal was assigned to a residual category for the basin. The residual category averaged 51 percent of total nitrogen inputs and 54 percent of total phosphorus inputs.     

Nutrient Inputs to the Laurentian Great Lakes by Source and Watershed Estimated Using SPARROW Watershed Models1

Robertson, Dale M. and David A. Saad, 2011. Nutrient Inputs to the Laurentian Great Lakes by Source and Watershed Estimated Using SPARROW Watershed Models. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):1011‐1033. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00574.x Abstract: Nutrient input to the Laurentian Great Lakes continues to cause problems with eutrophication. To reduce the extent and severity of these problems, target nutrient loads were established and Total Maximum Daily Loads are being developed for many tributaries. Without detailed loading information it is difficult to determine if the targets are being met and how to prioritize rehabilitation efforts. To help address these issues, SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were developed for estimating loads and sources of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) from the United States (U.S.) portion of the Great Lakes, Upper Mississippi, Ohio, and Red River Basins. Results indicated that recent U.S. loadings to Lakes Michigan and Ontario are similar to those in the 1980s, whereas loadings to Lakes Superior, Huron, and Erie decreased. Highest loads were from tributaries with the largest watersheds, whereas highest yields were from areas with intense agriculture and large point sources of nutrients. Tributaries were ranked based on their relative loads and yields to each lake. Input from agricultural areas was a significant source of nutrients, contributing ～33‐44% of the P and ～33‐58% of the N, except for areas around Superior with little agriculture. Point sources were also significant, contributing ～14‐44% of the P and 13‐34% of the N. Watersheds around Lake Erie contributed nutrients at the highest rate (similar to intensively farmed areas in the Midwest) because they have the largest nutrient inputs and highest delivery ratio.     

Grass‐Shrub Riparian Buffer Removal of Sediment,Phosphorus, and Nitrogen From Simulated Runoff1

Abstract: Riparian buffer forests and vegetative filter strips are widely recommended for improving surface water quality, but grass‐shrub riparian buffer system (RBSs) are less well studied. The objective of this study was to assess the influence of buffer width and vegetation type on the key processes and overall reductions of total suspended solids (TSS), phosphorus (P), and nitrogen (N) from simulated runoff passed through established (7‐year old) RBSs. Nine 1‐m RBS plots, with three replicates of three vegetation types (all natural selection grasses, two‐segment buffer with native grasses and plum shrub, and two‐segment buffer with natural selection grasses and plum shrub) and widths ranging from 8.3 to 16.1 m, received simulated runoff having 4,433 mg/l TSS from on‐site soil, 1.6 mg/l total P, and 20 mg/l total N. Flow‐weighted samples were collected by using Runoff Sampling System (ROSS) units. The buffers were very efficient in removal of sediments, N, and P, with removal efficiencies strongly linked to infiltration. Mass and concentration reductions averaged 99.7% and 97.9% for TSS, 91.8% and 42.9% for total P, and 92.1% and 44.4% for total N. Infiltration alone could account for >75% of TSS removal, >90% of total P removal, and >90% of total N removal. Vegetation type induced significant differences in removal of TSS, total P, and total N. These results demonstrate that adequately designed and implemented grass‐shrub buffers with widths of only 8 m provide for water quality improvement, particularly if adequate infiltration is achieved.     

Expansion of the MANAGE Database with Forest and Drainage Studies

The “Measured Annual Nutrient loads from AGricultural Environments” (MANAGE) database was published in 2006 to expand an early 1980s compilation of nutrient export (load) data from cultivated and pasture/range land at the field or farm scale. Then in 2008, MANAGE was updated with 15 additional studies, and nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations in runoff were added. Since then, MANAGE has undergone significant expansion adding N and P water quality along with relevant management and site characteristic data from: (1) 30 runoff studies from forested land uses, (2) 91 drainage water quality studies from drained land, and (3) 12 additional runoff studies from cultivated and pasture/range land uses. In this expansion, an application timing category was added to the existing fertilizer data categories (rate, placement, formulation) to facilitate analysis of 4R Nutrient Stewardship, which emphasizes right fertilizer source, rate, time, and place. In addition, crop yield and N and P uptake data were added, although this information was only available for 21 and 7% of studies, respectively. Inclusion of these additional data from cultivated, pasture/range, and forest land uses as well as artificially drained agricultural land should facilitate expanded spatial analyses and improved understanding of regional differences, management practice effectiveness, and impacts of land use conversions and management techniques. The current version is available at www.ars.usda.gov/spa/manage-nutrient .     

Salt Flushing,Salt Storage,and Controls on Selenium and Uranium: A 31‐Year Mass‐Balance Analysis of an Irrigated,Semiarid Valley

Salinity, selenium, and uranium pose water‐quality challenges for the Arkansas River in southeastern Colorado and other rivers that support irrigation in semiarid regions. This study used 31 years of continuous discharge and specific conductance (SC) monitoring data to assess interannual patterns in water quality using mass balance on a 120‐km reach of river. Discrete sampling data were used to link the SC records to salinity, selenium, and uranium. Several important patterns emerged. Consumptive use reduced discharge by a median value of 33% and drove corresponding increases in salinity and uranium concentrations. Increased water availability for irrigation from rainfall and upstream snowpack in 1995–1999 flushed additional salinity and uranium into the river in 1996–2000; average annual total dissolved solids (salinity) concentrations increased 25%, and loads increased 131%. Smaller flushing events have occurred, sometimes lagging an increase in water availability by about one year. The pattern indicates flushing of salts temporarily stored, evaporatively concentrated, or of geologic origin. Mobilization of selenium from the reach was minor compared to salinity and uranium, and net selenium removal from the river was suggested in some years. Several processes related to irrigation could be removing selenium. The results provide context for efforts to improve water quality in the Arkansas River and rivers in other semiarid regions.     

Weighting Nitrogen and Phosphorus Pixel Pollutant Loads to Represent Runoff and Buffering Likelihoods

Watershed models often estimate annual nitrogen (N) or phosphorus (P) pollutant loads in rural areas with export coefficient (EC) (kg/ha/yr) values based on land cover, and in urban areas as the product of spatially uniform event mean concentration (EMC) (mg/L) values and runoff volume. Actual N and P nonpoint source (NPS) pollutant loading has more spatial complexity due to watershed variation in runoff likelihood and buffering likelihood along surface and subsurface pathways, which can be represented in a contributing area dispersal area (CADA) NPS model. This research develops a CADA NPS model to simulate how watershed properties of elevation, land cover, and soils upslope and downslope of each watershed pixel influence nutrient loading. The model uses both surface and subsurface runoff indices (RI), and surface and subsurface buffer indices (BI), to quantify the runoff and buffering likelihood for each watershed pixel, and generate maps of weighted EC and EMC values that identify NPS pollutant loading hotspots. The research illustrates how CADA NPS model maps and pixel loading values are sensitive to the spatial resolution and accuracy of elevation and land cover data, and model predictions can represent the lower and upper bounds of NPS loading. The model provides managers with a tool to rapidly visualize, rank, and investigate likely areas of high nutrient export.     

NUTRIENT MASS BALANCE AND TRENDS,MOBILE RIVER BASIN,ALABAMA, GEORGIA,AND MISSISSIPPI1

ABSTRACT: A nutrient mass balance — accounting for nutrient inputs from atmospheric deposition, fertilizer, crop nitrogen fixation, and point source effluents; and nutrient outputs, including crop harvest and storage — was calculated for 18 subbasins in the Mobile River Basin, and trends (1970 to 1997) were evaluated as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Agricultural nonpoint nitrogen and phosphorus sources and urban nonpoint nitrogen sources are the most important factors associated with nutrients in this system. More than 30 percent of nitrogen yield in two basins and phosphorus yield in eight basins can be attributed to urban point source nutrient inputs. The total nitrogen yield (1.3 tons per square mile per year) for the Tombigbee River, which drains a greater percentage of agricultural (row crop) land use, was larger than the total nitrogen yield (0.99 tons per square mile per year) for the Alabama River. Decreasing trends of total nitrogen concentrations in the Tombigbee and Alabama Rivers indicate that a reduction occurred from 1975 to 1997 in the nitrogen contributions to Mobile Bay from the Mobile River. Nitrogen concentrations also decreased (1980 to 1995) in the Black Warrior River, one of the major tributaries to the Tombigbee River. Total phosphorus concentrations increased from 1970 to 1996 at three urban influenced sites on the Etowah River in Georgia. Multiple regression analysis indicates a distinct association between water quality in the streams of the Mobile River drainage basin and agricultural activities in the basin.     

Agricultural BMP Effectiveness and Dominant Hydrological Flow Paths: Concepts and a Review

We present a conceptual framework that relates agricultural best management practice (BMP) effectiveness with dominant hydrological flow paths to improve nonpoint source (NPS) pollution management. We use the framework to analyze plot, field and watershed scale published studies on BMP effectiveness to develop transferable recommendations for BMP selection and placement at the watershed scale. The framework is based on the location of the restrictive layer in the soil profile and distinguishes three hydrologic land types. Hydrologic land type A has the restrictive layer at the surface and BMPs that increase infiltration are effective. In land type B1, the surface soil has an infiltration rate greater than the prevailing precipitation intensity, but there is a shallow restrictive layer causing lateral flow and saturation excess overland flow. Few structural practices are effective for these land types, but pollutant source management plans can significantly reduce pollutant loading. Hydrologic land type B2 has deep, well‐draining soils without restrictive layers that transport pollutants to groundwater via percolation. Practices that increased pollutant residence time in the mixing layer or increased plant water uptake were found as the most effective BMPs in B2 land types. Matching BMPs to the appropriate land type allows for better targeting of hydrologically sensitive areas within a watershed, and potentially more significant reductions of NPS pollutant loading.     

Hydrologic and Phosphorus Export Behavior of Small Streams in Commercial Poultry‐Pasture Watersheds1

Romeis, J. Joshua, C. Rhett Jackson, L. Mark Risse, Andrew N. Sharpley, and David E. Radcliffe, 2011. Hydrologic and Phosphorus Export Behavior of Small Streams in Commercial Poultry‐Pasture Watersheds. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐19. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00521.x Abstract: Few watershed‐scale studies have evaluated phosphorus export in streamflow from commercial poultry‐pasture operations. Continuous streamflow and mixed‐frequency water quality datasets were collected from nine commercial poultry‐pasture (AG) and three forested (FORS) headwater streams (2.4‐44 ha) in the upper Etowah River basin of Georgia to estimate total P (TP) loads and examine variability of hydrologic response and water quality of storm and nonstorm‐flow regimes. Data collection duration ranged from 18 to 22 months, and approximately 1,600 water quality samples were collected. Significant (p < 0.1) inverse relationships were detected between peak flow response variables and both drainage area and fraction of forest cover. Order‐of‐magnitude differences in TP and dissolved reactive P (DRP) concentration were observed between AG and FORS sites and among AG sites. TP yields of FORS sites ranged from 0.01 to 0.1 kg P/ha. Yields of AG sites ranged from 0.031 to 3.17 kg P/ha (median = 0.354 kg P/ha). With 95% confidence intervals, AG yields ranged from 0.025 to 13.1 kg P/ha. These small‐watershed‐scale yields were similar to field‐scale yields measured in other studies in other regions. TP yields were significantly related to area‐weighted Mehlich‐1 soil test P concentrations (p = 0.0073) and base‐flow water sample P concentrations (p ≤ 0.0005). Water quality sampling during base‐flow conditions may be a useful screening tool for P risk‐based management programs.     

Using Multiple Watershed Models to Predict Water,Nitrogen, and Phosphorus Discharges to the Patuxent Estuary1

Boomer, Kathleen M.B., Donald E. Weller, Thomas E. Jordan, Lewis Linker, Zhi‐Jun Liu, James Reilly, Gary Shenk, and Alexey A. Voinov, 2012. Using Multiple Watershed Models to Predict Water, Nitrogen, and Phosphorus Discharges to the Patuxent Estuary. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐25. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00689.x Abstract: We analyzed an ensemble of watershed models that predict flow, nitrogen, and phosphorus discharges. The models differed in scope and complexity and used different input data, but all had been applied to evaluate human impacts on discharges to the Patuxent River or to the Chesapeake Bay. We compared predictions to observations of average annual, annual time series, and monthly discharge leaving three basins. No model consistently matched observed discharges better than the others, and predictions differed as much as 150% for every basin. Models that agreed best with the observations in one basin often were among the worst models for another material or basin. Combining model predictions into a model average improved overall reliability in matching observations, and the range of predictions helped describe uncertainty. The model average was not the closest to the observed discharge for every material, basin, and time frame, but the model average had the highest Nash–Sutcliffe performance across all combinations. Consistently poor performance in predicting phosphorus loads suggests that none of the models capture major controls. Differences among model predictions came from differences in model structures, input data, and the time period considered, and also to errors in the observed discharge. Ensemble watershed modeling helped identify research needs and quantify the uncertainties that should be considered when using the models in management decisions.     

Assessment of Nonpoint Source Pollution from Inactive Mines Using a Watershed-Based Approach

/ A watershed-based approach for screening-level assessment of nonpoint source pollution from inactive and abandoned metal mines was developed and illustrated. The methodology was designed to use limited stream discharge and chemical data from synoptic surveys to derive key information required for targeting impaired waterbodies and critical source areas for detailed investigation and remediation. The approach was formulated based on the required attributes of an assessment methodology, information goals for targeting, attributes of data that are typical of basins with inactive mines, and data analysis methods that were useful for the case study. The methodology is presented as steps in a framework including evaluation of existing data/information and identification of data gaps; definition of assessment information goals for targeting and monitoring design; data collection, management, and analysis; and information reporting and use for targeting. Information generated includes the type and extent of and critical conditions for water-quality impairment, concentrations in and loadings to streams, differences between concentrations in and loadings to streams, and risks of exceeding target concentrations and loadings. Data from the Cement Creek Basin, located in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado, USA, were used to help develop and illustrate application of the methodology. The required information was derived for Cement Creek and used for preliminary targeting of locations for detailed investigation and remediation. Application of the approach to Cement Creek was successful in terms of cost-effective generation of information and use for targeting.KEY WORDS: Water quality assessment; Nonpoint source pollution; Inactive mines; Watershed     

Linking Nitrogen Export to Landscape Heterogeneity: The Role of Infrastructure and Storm Flows in a Mediterranean Urban System

Urban ecosystems are often sources of nonpoint source (NPS) nitrogen (N) pollution to aquatic ecosystems. However, N export from urban watersheds is highly variable. Examples of densely urbanized watersheds are not well studied, and these may have comparatively low export rates. Commonly used metrics of landscape heterogeneity may obscure our ability to discern relationships among landscape characteristics that can explain these lower export rates. We expected that differences not often captured by these metrics in the relative cover of vegetation, structures, and impervious surfaces would better explain observed variation in N export. We examined these relationships during storms in residential watersheds. Contrary to expectations, land cover did not directly predict variation in N or water export. Instead, N export was strongly linked to drainage infrastructure density. Our research highlights the role of fine‐scaled landscape attributes, mainly infrastructure, in explaining patterns of N export from densely urbanized watersheds. Changes to hydrologic flow paths by infrastructure explained more variation in N export than land cover. Our findings support further development of landscape ecological models of urban N export that focus on hydrologic modification by infrastructure rather than traditional landscape measures such as land use, as indicators for evaluating patterns of NPS nitrogen pollution in densely urbanized watersheds.