铜川市降水化学特征分析

对铜川市2014年大气降水样品监测资料的综合分析和研究表明,该地区降水样品pH值介于6.57~7.19之间,降水量加权平均pH值为6.85;Ca²⁺和NH₄⁺是降水中主要的阳离子,分别占降水中阳离子总量的69.8%和12.9%;SO₄^2-和NO₃^-是降水中主要的阴离子,分别占降水中阴离子总量的56.4%和30.3%。降水中[SO₄^2-]与[NO₃^-]浓度比值为1.86,属硫酸-硝酸混合型降水。降水离子相关分析表明,SO₄^2-和F^-相关性较好,Ca²⁺与SO₄^2-(R=0.925)、NO₃^-(R=0.791)的相关系数分别大于NH₄⁺与SO₄^2-(R=0.549)、NO₃^-(R=0.385)的相关系数,说明研究区大气降水主要以CaSO₄、Ca(NO₃)₂、(NH₄)₂SO₄的形式存在,Ca²⁺对降水酸度的中和作用大于NH₄⁺。     

PREDICTING MEASUREMENT ERROR OF AREAL MEAN PRECIPITATION DURING EXTREME EVENTS1

ABSTRACT: The areal mean precipitation (AMP) over a catchment is normally calculated using point measurements at rainfall gages. Error in AMP estimates occurs when an insufficient number of gages are used to sample precipitation which is highly variable in space. AMP error is investigated using historic, severe rainfalls with a set of hypothetical catchments and raingage networks. The potential magnitude of error is estimated for typical gage network densities and arrangements. Possible sources of error are evaluated, and a method is proposed for predicting the magnitude of error using data that are commonly available for severe, historic rainfall.     

REGIONAL FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF HYDROLOGIC MULTIYEAR DROUGHTS1

This paper is concerned with regional frequency analysis of hydrologic multiyear droughts. A drought event is defined by three parameters: severity, duration, and magnitude. A method is proposed here to standardize drought severities with a duration adjustment to enable comparison among drought events. For purposes of a regional study, the index drought method is selected and applied to standardized droughts to give a regional frequency curve. However, the recurrence intervals of the drought events obtained from index drought method are limited to the historic period of record. Therefore, by taking advantage of random variations of droughts in both time and space, a multivariate simulation model is used to estimate exceedence probabilities associated with regional drought maxima. This method, named the regional extreme drought method, is capable of generating a series of drought events which, although they have not occurred historically, are more severe than historic events. By combining the results of the index drought method and regional extreme drought analysis, a regional drought probability graph is constructed which ranges from severe droughts to more frequent droughts. This procedure is applied to the mean annual flow records of streams located in the San Joaquin Valley of California, and drought-severity-frequency plots are prepared for 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year durations.     

CHARACTERISTICS OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION1

ABSTRACT: Records of extreme precipitation were investigated using the Discrete Autoregressive Moving Average (DABMA) process, which can explain long persistences of wet and dry spells that exist in daily precipitation data. The results show that the daily precipitation with strong autocorrelation is inclined to be better fit by a Discrete Autoregressive (DAB) model. On the other hand, those data with weak autocorrelations tend to be best fit by a Discrete Moving Average (DMA) model. It can also be concluded that based on the records from extremely wet and dry regions there is no geographic preference regarding the selection of the best model.     

基于灰色聚类法的成都市大气污染评价

大气环境质量问题一直是关注的环境问题之一,而灰色聚类分析方法在很多领域已有应用。本文对成都市大气环境监测数据进行评价：采用灰色聚类分析方法,将污染因子（SO2、NO2、PM10）进行综合评价,标准化污染因子及评价指标。白化函数得到各个污染因子每年的5×4矩阵,按照聚类系数来判定综合指标类型,并进行评价。为成都市综合大气...     

山西省近50年气候变化特征分析

根据近50年来山西省18个气象基准站1960—2004年间的逐月气温、降水量和山西气象观测台(太原站)1966—2005年的逐月太阳辐射资料的统计,对山西省的气候变化进行了较系统的分析。结果表明,近50年来山西省气温上升趋势明显,而且在1990年有一次明显的跃变(1990年的累积距平等于零),年平均温度以0.25℃/10a的幅度上升;降水的年变化呈下降趋势,平均以18.7mm/10a的幅度下降,在1990年也有一次跃变;年总太阳辐射量亦呈下降趋势,且在1982年有一次明显的突变,年平均太阳辐射总量以每10年238.9204 MJ/m2的幅度下降。1982年以前以正距平为主,1982年后以负距平为主,且跃变的幅度较明显。     

优化大气监测布点方法的探讨

选择有代表性的监测点,是决定监测数据能否对该区域的状况进行描述的前提。炼厂排放源为不规则的无组织排放的面源,数据在该区域具有代表性的点上测出。将整个被测区域按不同的功能特点和生产工艺,划分成若干个小的功能区,在每个功能区中布有限个点,并同时在一个功能区的有限个点采样分析,运用数理统计的手段,探讨某一局部小区域中最优监测点的选择方法。该方法简单、实用,并在实际监测工作中得到应用。     

大气环境因素与腐蚀速率的模糊聚类分析

本文针对我国8个典型大气环境试验站的环境因素数据与基础金属腐蚀数据。采用模糊聚类方法对15项环境因素进行分类,探讨各项环境因素之间的相关性。分析结果表明：有4项环境因素对基础金属腐蚀等级的影响性较高。     

国内外自然大气环境试验的发展

简单介绍了大气环境试验的发展历程。从不同技术角度，分析了大气环境试验的种类、应用、大气监测和样品检测、试验站、信息技术、加速试验及标准化等7个方面的国内外发展现状和趋势。最后提出几点建议。     

2013年秦皇岛连续两次降水过程对比分析

利用常规气象观测资料、自动站资料及卫星资料,从大尺度环流背景和水汽、动力、热力条件出发,对2013年8月底东北冷涡影响下秦皇岛两次降水过程进行对比分析。结果表明：由于处在东北冷涡发展的不同阶段,中低层温度场配置不同,两次过程降水特点极不相同。8月27日降水是一次连续的区域性降水过程,以层状云降水为主,降水均匀连续,8月31日至9月2日是冷涡后部西北气流影响下的数日局地性对流降水,具有很强的突发性。     

HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTIONS BY SEASON IN LOUISIANA: SYNOPTIC INTERPRETATIONS AND QUANTILE ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: In most studies, quantile estimates of extreme 24-hour rainfall are given in annual probabilities. The probability of experiencing an excessive storm event, however, differs throughout the year. As a result, this paper explored the differences between heavy rainfall distributions by season in Louisiana. It was concluded by using the Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests that the distribution of heavy rainfall events differs significantly between particular seasons at the sites near the Gulf Coast. Furthermore, seasonal frequency curves varied dramatically at the four sites examined. Mixed distributions within these data were not found to be problematic, but the mechanisms that produced the events were found to change seasonally. Extreme heavy rainfall events in winter and spring were primarily generated by frontal weather systems, while summer and fall events had high proportions of events produced by tropical disturbances and airmass (free-convective) conditions.     

渠县近5年大气污染特征及预测分析

本文应用污染损害综合指数法,分析了四川省渠县近5年来的大气变化及其危害程度,并运用GM(1,1)模型对渠县未来8年的大气状况作预测。结果表明,渠县大气环境主要污染物为可吸入微粒,其浓度变化呈逐年下降趋势,从2008年开始TSP有明显下降,SO2与NO2含量较低并且比较稳定。通过GM(1,1)模型对渠县空气质量进行预测得知,SO2、NO2逐渐下降,TSP的浓度将大幅度下降,在未来的8年里渠县的空气环境质量得到大幅度的提高。     

极值理论在重金属污染土壤修复中的应用

为了准确预测重金属污染地块不同区域内重金属的最大值,以便于后续筛选重金属修复技术、确定重金属修复药剂使用量等提供依据,采用极值理论方法对某重金属砷污染地块三块区域内的重金属砷浓度数据进行极值分布的统计分析,对比不同分布形式对重金属砷浓度数据拟合的效果.结果 表明:广义极值分布可以很好地描述重金属砷浓度数据的分布情况,通...     

Transaction costs and agri-environmental policy measures: are preferences influencing policy implementation?

This paper investigates whether the level of transaction costs of a Swedish agri-environmental policy measure is attributable to technical factors or whether political factors, such as lobby groups and political majorities at the county level, influence the costs. A previous study indicated that political factors may influence the level of transaction costs, but the extreme bounds analysis performed in this paper reveals that those results are fragile. It shows that three of the technical variables are robust with respect to model specifications but that none of the political variables are. Thus, no evidence can be found that political factors influence the level of transaction costs.