MODIS Biophysical States and NEXRAD Precipitation in a Statistical Evaluation of Antecedent Moisture Condition and Streamflow1

Abstract: The potential of remotely sensed time series of biophysical states of landscape to characterize soil moisture condition antecedent to radar estimates of precipitation is assessed in a statistical prediction model of streamflow in a 1,420 km² watershed in south‐central Texas, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) time series biophysical products offer significant opportunities to characterize and quantify hydrologic state variables such as land surface temperature (LST) and vegetation state and status. Together with Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) precipitation estimates for the period 2002 through 2005, 16 raw and deseasoned time series of LST (day and night), vegetation indices, infrared reflectances, and water stress indices were linearly regressed against observed watershed streamflow on an eight‐day aggregated time period. Time offsets of 0 (synchronous with streamflow event), 8, and 16 days (leading streamflow event) were assessed for each of the 16 parameters to evaluate antecedent effects. The model results indicated a reasonable correlation (r² = 0.67) when precipitation, daytime LST advanced 16 days, and a deseasoned moisture stress index were regressed against log‐transformed streamflow. The estimation model was applied to a validation period from January 2006 through March 2007, a period of 12 months of regional drought and base‐flow conditions followed by three months of above normal rainfall and a flood event. The model resulted in a Nash‐Sutcliffe estimation efficiency (E) of 0.45 for flow series (in log‐space) for the full 15‐month period, ?0.03 for the 2006 drought condition period, and 0.87 for the 2007 wet condition period. The overall model had a relative volume error of ?32%. The contribution of parameter uncertainties to model discrepancy was evaluated.     

A Calibrated,High‐Resolution GOES Satellite Solar Insolation Product for a Climatology of Florida Evapotranspiration1

Paech, Simon J., John R. Mecikalski, David M. Sumner, Chandra S. Pathak, Quinlong Wu, Shafiqul Islam, and Taiye Sangoyomi, 2009. A Calibrated, High‐Resolution GOES Satellite Solar Insolation Product for a Climatology of Florida Evapotranspiration. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1328‐1342. Abstract: Estimates of incoming solar radiation (insolation) from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite observations have been produced for the state of Florida over a 10‐year period (1995‐2004). These insolation estimates were developed into well‐calibrated half‐hourly and daily integrated solar insolation fields over the state at 2 km resolution, in addition to a 2‐week running minimum surface albedo product. Model results of the daily integrated insolation were compared with ground‐based pyranometers, and as a result, the entire dataset was calibrated. This calibration was accomplished through a three‐step process: (1) comparison with ground‐based pyranometer measurements on clear (noncloudy) reference days, (2) correcting for a bias related to cloudiness, and (3) deriving a monthly bias correction factor. Precalibration results indicated good model performance, with a station‐averaged model error of 2.2 MJ m^?2/day (13%). Calibration reduced errors to 1.7 MJ m^?2/day (10%), and also removed temporal‐related, seasonal‐related, and satellite sensor‐related biases. The calibrated insolation dataset will subsequently be used by state of Florida Water Management Districts to produce statewide, 2‐km resolution maps of estimated daily reference and potential evapotranspiration for water management‐related activities.     

POTENTIAL FOR AUGMENTING WATER YIELD THROUGH FOREST PRACTICES IN WESTERN WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON1

Western Washington and western Oregon comprise a water-rich region that has a very uneven annual distribution of both precipitation and streamflow. Highest demand for water coincides with lowest streamflow levels between July 1 and September 30 when less than 5 percent of annual water yield occurs. Increases in annual water yield in small, experimental watersheds in the region have ranged up to 600 mm after entire watersheds were logged and up to 300 mm in watersheds that were 25 to 30 percent logged. Most of the increase has occurred during the fall-winter rainy season, and yield increases have been largest during the wettest years. Estimated sustained increases in water yield from most large watersheds subject to sustained yield forest management are at best only 3-6 percent of unaugmented flows. Realistically, watersheds in this region will not be managed to produce more water. Water yield augmentation will continue to be only a small and variable by-product of logging. The utility of water yield augmentation is limited by its size and by its occurrence relative to the time of water demand. In some local areas, reduction of fog interception and drip or establishment of riparian phreatophytic hardwoods may reduce summer flows.     

LONG-RANGE STREAMFLOW FORCASTING USING NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION1

ABSTRACT: A class of nonparametric procedures is developed for producing long-range streamflow forecasts. The forecasting procedures, which are based solely on daily streamflow data, utilize nonparametric regression to relate a forecast variable to a covariate variable. The forecast variable is a function of future streamflow and can take a wide variety of forms. The covariate variable is a function of antecedent streamflow. The forecasting procedures are quite flexible, both in terms of the duration of the forecast period and the types of forecast variables that can be considered. The procedures are used to develop long-term (1–4 months) forecasts of minimum daily flow of the Potomac River at Washington, D.C. This forecast information is an integral component of water management activities for the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area.     

LONG-TERM CHANGES IN STREAMFLOW FOLLOWING LOGGING IN WESTERN OREGON AND ASSOCIATED FISHERIES IMPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: The long-term effect of logging on low summer streamflow was investigated with a data set of 36 years. Hydrologic records were analyzed for the period 1953 and 1988 from Watershed (WS) 1 (clear-cut logged and burned), WS 2 (unlogged control), and WS 3 (25 percent patch-cut logged and burned) in the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest, western Cascade Range, Oregon. These records spanned 9–10 years before logging, and 21–25 years after logging and burning. Streamfiows in August were the lowest of any month, and were unaffected by occasional heavy rain that occurred at the beginning of summer. August streamfiows increased in WS 1 compared to WS 2 by 159 percent following logging in WS 1, but this increase lasted for only eight years following the start of logging in 1962. Water yield in August for 1970–1988 observed from WS 1 was 25 percent less than predicted from the control (WS 2, ANOVA, p=0.032). Water yield in August increased by 59 percent after 25 percent of the area of WS 3 was patch-cut logged and burned in 1963. In contrast to WS 1, however, water yields from WS 3 in August were consistently greater than predicted for 16 years following the start of logging, through to 1978. For the 10 years, 1979–1988, water yield observed in August from WS 3 was not different than predicted from the control (WS 2, ANOVA, p-0.175). The contrasting responses of WS 1 and 3 to logging are thought to be the result of differences in riparian vegetation caused by different geomorphic conditions. A relatively wide valley floor in WS 1 allowed the development of hardwoods in the riparian zone following logging, but the narrow valley of WS 3 and limited sediment deposits prevented establishment of riparian hardwoods. Low streamflows during summer have implications for salmonid survival. Reduced streamflow reduces the amount of rearing habitat, thus increasing competition. Combined with high water temperatures, reduced streamflow can lead directly to salmonid mortality by driving salmonids from riffles and glides, and trapping them in drying pools. Low streamflow also increases oxygen depletion caused by leaves from riparian red alders.