BIOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF SACRAMENTO WATERSHED MANAGEMENT OPTIONS1

ABSTRACT: This paper brings together spatially and temporally explicit mechanistic models of hydrodynamic, water quality, and ecological processes with an economic model to examine water management alternatives for California's Sacramento River and Delta ecosystem, a large‐scale watershed. Overallocated water supplies in most years, combined with increasing demand for water for environmental purposes, have created a politically charged atmosphere and a need for quantitative assessment of the implications of policy alternatives. By developing and analyzing a common set of policy scenarios, this integrated framework allows us to consider tradeoffs between agricultural economic factors, water quality, and population dynamics for two at‐risk fish species. We analyze two rather extreme types of policy options; one involves structural modifications to change the flow of water within the watershed but no change in water diversions, while the other reallocates water from agricultural users to fish and wildlife. Results suggest that substantial environmental improvements could be made at a relatively modest cost to farmers (1 to 4 percent reductions in revenues) but that those costs could be significant locally. In addition to tradeoffs between farmers and environmental interests, results suggest that policy makers may need to balance competing environmental objectives.     

Structured Decision Making to Meet a National Water Quality Mandate

Water quality criteria are necessary to ensure protection of ecological and human health conditions, but compliance can require complex decisions. We use structured decision making to consider multiple stakeholder objectives in a water quality management process, with a case study in the Three Bays watershed on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. We set a goal to meet or exceed a nitrogen load reduction target for the watershed and four key objectives: minimizing economic costs of implementing management actions, minimizing the complexity of permitting management actions, maximizing stakeholder acceptability of the management actions, and maximizing the provision of ecosystem services (recreational opportunity, erosion and flood control, socio‐cultural amenity). We used multi‐objective optimization and sensitivity analysis to generate many possible solutions that implement different combinations of nitrogen‐removing management actions and reflect tradeoffs between the objectives. Results show technological advances in controlling household nitrogen sources could provide lower cost solutions and positive impacts to ecosystem services. Although this approach is demonstrated with Cape Cod data, the decision‐making process is not specific to any watershed and could be easily applied elsewhere.     

Influence of Bioenergy Crop Production and Climate Change on Ecosystem Services

Land use change can significantly affect the provision of ecosystem services and the effects could be exacerbated by projected climate change. We quantify ecosystem services of bioenergy‐based land use change and estimate the potential changes of ecosystem services due to climate change projections. We considered 17 bioenergy‐based scenarios with Miscanthus, switchgrass, and corn stover as candidate bioenergy feedstock. Soil and Water Assessment Tool simulations of biomass/grain yield, hydrology, and water quality were used to quantify ecosystem services freshwater provision (FWPI), food (FPI) and fuel provision, erosion regulation (ERI), and flood regulation (FRI). Nine climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase‐3 were used to quantify the potential climate change variability. Overall, ecosystem services of heavily row cropped Wildcat Creek watershed were lower than St. Joseph River watershed which had more forested and perennial pasture lands. The provision of ecosystem services for both study watersheds were improved with bioenergy production scenarios. Miscanthus in marginal lands of Wildcat Creek (9% of total area) increased FWPI by 27% and ERI by 14% and decreased FPI by 12% from the baseline. For St. Joseph watershed, Miscanthus in marginal lands (18% of total area) improved FWPI by 87% and ERI by 23% while decreasing FPI by 46%. The relative impacts of land use change were considerably larger than climate change impacts in this paper. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Stakeholder Analysis of a Collaborative Watershed Management Process: A Florida Case Study1

Borisova, Tatiana, Laila Racevskis, and Jennison Kipp, 2012. Stakeholder Analysis of a Collaborative Watershed Management Process: A Florida Case Study. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 277‐296. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00615.x Abstract: This study focuses on a Florida watershed where development of a total maximum daily load (TMDL) and its implementation plan resulted in conflicts among stakeholders. The overall goal is to build a better understanding of stakeholder perceptions of water quality problems, water policy processes and decisions, and water management plan development in a region where these issues have become contentious. Findings are based on a stakeholder analysis using qualitative data collected through focus groups with agricultural producers, local governments, and environmental groups, and supplemented with additional qualitative data on the watershed management process. Stakeholder conflicts in this case study are associated with perceived flaws in the structural and procedural characteristics of the stakeholder involvement process: (1) suboptimal watershed stakeholder representation on the TMDL executive committee, (2) an inappropriate voting procedure for making TMDL decisions, (3) limitations in information sharing between regulatory agencies and watershed stakeholders, and (4) stakeholders’ doubts about whether tradeoffs associated with achieving the water quality targets were assessed adequately throughout the TMDL planning and implementation process. This study contributes to the literature on collaborative watershed management by analyzing stakeholder involvement given Florida’s unique institutional settings, where implementation of TMDL pollution abatement is mandatory.     

Assessment of Water Supply as an Ecosystem Service in a Rural-Urban Watershed in Southwestern Mexico City

Studies from the ecosystem services perspective can provide a useful framework because they allow us to fully examine the benefits that humans obtain from socio-ecological systems. Mexico City, the second largest city in the world, has faced severe problems related to water shortages, which have worsened due to increasing population. Demand for space has forced changes in land cover, including covering areas that are essential for groundwater recharge. The city has 880 km² of forest areas that are crucial for the water supply. The Magdalena River Watershed was chosen as a model because it is a well-preserved zone within Mexico City and it provides water for the population. The general aim of this study was to assess the ecosystem service of the water supply in the Magdalena River Watershed by determining its water balance (SWAT model) and the number of beneficiaries of the ecosystem services. The results showed that the watershed provides 18.4 hm³ of water per year. Baseflow was dominant, with a contribution of 85%, while surface runoff only accounted for 15%. The zone provides drinking water to 78,476 inhabitants and could supply 153,203 potential beneficiaries. This work provides an example for understanding how ecosystem processes determine the provision of ecosystem services and benefits to the population in a rural–urban watershed in Mexico City.     

APPLICATION OF ENHANCED ANNEALING TO GROUND WATER REMEDIATION DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: A methodology for ground water remediation design has been developed that interfaces ground water simulation models with an enhanced annealing optimizer. The ground water flow and transport simulators provide the ability to consider site‐specific contamination and geohydrologic conditions directly in the assessment of alternative remediation system designs. The optimizer facilitates analysis of tradeoffs between technical, environmental, regulatory, and financial risks for alternative design and operation scenarios. A ground water management model using an optimization method referred to as “enhanced annealing” (simulated annealing enhanced to include “directional search” and “memory” mechanisms) has been developed and successfully applied to an actual restoration problem. The demonstration site is the contaminated unconfined aquifer referred to as N‐Springs located at Han‐ford, Washington. Results of the demonstration show the potential for improving groundwater restoration system performance while reducing overall system cost.     

Investigating public preferences for managing Lake Champlain using a choice experiment

The Lake Champlain Basin in Vermont and New York, USA and Quebec, Canada includes a large lake and watershed with complex management issues. A transboundary comprehensive management plan prepared for the lake includes 11 goals across many issue areas. We developed a choice experiment to examine public preferences for alternative Lake Champlain management scenarios across these issue areas. Five ecosystem attributes (water clarity-algae blooms, public beach closures, land use change, fish consumption advisories and the spread of water chestnut, an invasive plant) were varied across three levels and arrayed into paired comparisons following an orthogonal fractional factorial design. Two thousand questionnaires were distributed to basin residents, each including nine paired comparisons that required trading off two, three or four attributes. Completed surveys yielded 6541 responses which were analyzed using binary logistic regression. The results showed that although water clarity and beach closures were important, safe fish consumption was the strongest predictor of choice. Land use pattern and water chestnut distribution were weaker but also significant predictors, with respondents preferring less land development and preservation of the agricultural landscape. Current management efforts in the Lake Champlain Basin are heavily weighted toward improving water clarity by reducing phosphorus pollution. Our results suggest that safe fish consumption warrants additional management attention. Because choice experiments provide information that is much richer than the simple categorical judgments more commonly used in surveys, they can provide managers with information about tradeoffs that could be used to enhance public support and maximize the social benefits of an ecosystem management program.     

An Open Source GIS‐Based Decision Support System for Watershed Evaluation of Best Management Practices

Economic costs, water quantity/quality benefits, and cost effectiveness of agricultural best management practices (BMPs) at a watershed scale are increasingly examined using integrated economic‐hydrologic models. However, these models are typically complex and not user‐friendly for examining the effects of various BMP scenarios. In this study, an open source geographic information system (GIS)‐based decision support system (DSS), named the watershed evaluation of BMPs (WEBs), was developed for creating BMP scenarios and simulating economic costs and water quantity/quality benefits at farm field, subbasin, and watershed scales. This DSS or WEBs interface integrated a farm economic model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and an optimization model within Whitebox Geospatial Analysis Tools (GAT), an open source GIS software. The DSS was applied to the 14.3‐km² Gully Creek watershed, a coastal watershed in southern Ontario, Canada that drains directly into Lake Huron. BMPs that were evaluated included conservation tillage, nutrient management, cover crop, and water and sediment control basins. In addition to assessing economic costs, water quantity/quality benefits, and cost effectiveness of BMPs, the DSS can be also used to examine prioritized BMP types/locations and corresponding economic and water quantity/quality tradeoffs in the study watershed based on environmental targets or budget constraints. Further developments of the DSS including interface transfer to other watersheds are also discussed. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Water Prism: A Tool to Assess Water Availability Risk and Investigate Water Management Strategies

Water availability risk is a local issue best understood with watershed‐scale quantification of both withdrawal and consumptive demands in the context of available supply. Collectively, all water use sectors must identify, understand, and respond to this risk. A highly visual and computationally robust decision support tool, Water Prism, quantitatively explores mitigation responses to water risk on both a facility‐level and basin‐aggregated basis. Water Prism examines a basin water balance for a 40‐ to 60‐year planning horizon, distinguishes among water use sectors, and accounts for ecosystem water needs. The 2012 Texas State Water Plan was used to apply Water Prism to the Big Cypress‐Sulphur Basin (Texas). The case study showed Water Prism to be an accurate and convenient tool to provide fine‐scale understanding of water use in the context of available supply, evaluate multi‐sector combinations of conservation strategies, and quantify the effects of future demands and water availability. Analyses demonstrated water availability risks for rivers and reservoirs can vary within a basin and must be calculated independently, simulation of water balance conditions can help illuminate potential impacts of increasing demands, and scenario simulations can be used to evaluate relative conservation efficacy of different water resource management strategies for each sector. Based on case study findings, Water Prism can serve as a useful assessment tool for regional water planners.     

INTEGRATED MODELING FOR WATERSHED MANAGEMENT: MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES AND SPATIAL EFFECTS1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents an optimization framework for prioritizing sites for wetlands restoration on a watershed or landscape scale. The framework is designed for analyzing the potential environmental impacts of alternative management strategies while accounting for economic constraints, thereby aiding decision makers in explicitly considering multiple management objectives. The modeling strategy consists of two phases. First, relationships between the configuration of land use types in a watershed and valued ecosystem services are specified mathematically. Second, those functions are incorporated into a spatial optimization model that allows comparisons of the expected environmental impacts and economic costs of management strategies that change the configuration of land use in the watershed. By way of a stylized example, this paper develops the general structure of the framework, presents simulation results based on two production functions for ecosystem services, and discusses the potential utility of the methodology for watershed management.     

THE SOCIAL CONTEXT OF WESTERN WATER DEVELOPMENT1

ABSTRACT: Social scientists were included in the planning and design for an integrated, trans-basin water resource project. Within this complex project, a socioeconomic impact assessment (SIA) concentrated on identifying the social, political, and economic issues and potential impacts inherent in developing a city's water rights. Before the SIA began, some of the development alternatives had already generated widespread hostility and organized opposition from communities within the watershed. The SIA involved residents of affected communities in the study design and project planning. The study found a number of components that constituted the concerns, beliefs, and expectations about perceived, potential impacts that might result from the different alternatives. In most cases these issues constituted threats to valued environmental resources, valued community resources, the social environment, the economic base, and a secure future. The social science component was a key factor in the ultimate decision to pursue a particular alternative which was sensitive to the social and political issues, minimized environmental and socioeconomic impacts, and ultimately had support among the communities potentially affected. The experience from this case study suggests that the approach used can be applied successfully in the planning of other water development projects and result in cooperation from the wide range of interest groups that often present costly obstacles to such projects.     

FORECASTING FUTURE LAND USE FOR WATERSHED ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Protecting surface water quality in watersheds undergoing demographic change requires both the management of existing threats and planning to address potential future stresses arising from changing land use. Many reservoirs and threatened waterbodies are located in areas undergoing rapid population growth, and increases in density of residential and commercial land use, accompanied by increased amount of impervious surface area, can result in increased pollutant loading and degradation of water quality. Effective planning to address potential threats, including zoning and growth management, requires analytical tools to predict and compare the impacts of different management options. The focus of this paper is not on developing demographic projections, but rather the translation of such projections into changes in land use which form the basis for assessment of future watershed loads. Land use change can be forecast at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A semi-lumped, GIS-based, transition matrix approach is recommended as consistent with the level of complexity achievable in most watershed models. Practical aspects of forecasting future land use for watershed assessment are discussed. Several recent reservoir water supply projection studies are used to demonstrate a general framework for simulating changes in land use and resulting impacts on water quality. In addition to providing a technical basis for selecting optimal management alternatives, such a tool is invaluable for demonstrating to different stakeholder groups the trade-offs among management alternatives, both in terms of water quality and future land use patterns within the watershed.     

NEGOTIATING SCIENCE AND VALUES WITH STAKEHOLDERS IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Current research in the Illinois River Basin is designed to develop and test a policy formulation protocol that will foster watershed management policy that is fully legitimated (i.e., policy that is technically effective, economically efficient, administratively implementable, politically feasible, and socially acceptable). This paper describes the results of the initial baseline impact assessment that includes physical, biological, economic, legal, and social systems as well as the development of a watershed management decision support system that is used to integrate technical information and analyses, and to facilitate policy maker and stakeholder negotiation workshops. Numerically modeled and visually simulated environmental impacts serve as the basis for developing alternative policy maker scenarios for prospective watershed management policies. These scenarios, which will be subjected to stakeholder review and negotiation, will undergo iterative review and amendment by policy makers and stakeholder groups to produce a recommended watershed management policy that satisfies all five substantive legitimation criteria. Preliminary results from the baseline social impact assessment indicate that fully legitimated policy is indeed obtainable.     

The Watershed Flow and Allocation Model: An NHDPlus‐Based Watershed Modeling Approach for Multiple Scales and Conditions

The Watershed Flow and Allocation model (WaterFALL^®) provides segment‐specific, daily streamflow at both gaged and ungaged locations to generate the hydrologic foundation for a variety of water resources management applications. The model is designed to apply across the spatially explicit and enhanced National Hydrography Dataset (NHDPlus) stream and catchment network. To facilitate modeling at the NHDPlus catchment scale, we use an intermediate‐level rainfall‐runoff model rather than a complex process‐based model. The hydrologic model within WaterFALL simulates rainfall‐runoff processes for each catchment within a watershed and routes streamflow between catchments, while accounting for withdrawals, discharges, and onstream reservoirs within the network. The model is therefore distributed among each NHDPlus catchment within the larger selected watershed. Input parameters including climate, land use, soils, and water withdrawals and discharges are georeferenced to each catchment. The WaterFALL system includes a centralized database and server‐based environment for storing all model code, input parameters, and results in a single instance for all simulations allowing for rapid comparison between multiple scenarios. We demonstrate and validate WaterFALL within North Carolina at a variety of scales using observed streamflows to inform quantitative and qualitative measures, including hydrologic flow metrics relevant to the study of ecological flow management decisions.     

Household susceptibility to hydrological change in the Lower Mekong Basin

The hydrological conditions of the Lower Mekong Basin support a multitude of ecosystem services. Processes that influence water flow in the Mekong River will thus have implications for the tens of millions of people whose livelihoods depend on these services. This study presents an assessment of livelihood susceptibility to hydrological change in the Lower Mekong Basin. Using an index‐based approach, susceptibility scores were calculated for 2,703 households. Using those scores, we compared average household susceptibility across the basin, among countries and among eco‐zones. Due to their greater livelihood dependency on water‐related activities, mean household susceptibility was higher in Vietnam than in Cambodia, Laos, or Thailand. Households in Northern Laos also had high susceptibility, which was attributed to their low adaptive capacity. The findings suggest that policies aimed at reducing vulnerability to hydrological change in the Lower Mekong Basin should account for geographic context. Further, they highlight how policies may be able to strategically target the most susceptible households, but that poorly designed policies have the potential to exacerbate vulnerability. In the face of high uncertainty surrounding hydrological change in the Lower Mekong Basin, our assessment of susceptibility should help inform precautionary water management policies and provide baseline information needed for more comprehensive vulnerability assessments.     

Growth of the Decision Tree: Advances in Bottom‐Up Climate Change Risk Management

There has recently been a return in climate change risk management practice to bottom‐up, robustness‐based planning paradigms introduced 40 years ago. The World Bank's decision tree framework (DTF) for “confronting climate uncertainty” is one incarnation of those paradigms. In order to better represent the state of the art in climate change risk assessment and evaluation techniques, this paper proposes: (1) an update to the DTF, replacing its “climate change stress test” with a multidimensional stress test; and (2) the addition of a Bayesian network framework that represents joint probabilistic behavior of uncertain parameters as sensitivity factors to aid in the weighting of scenarios of concern (the combination of conditions under which a water system fails to meet its performance targets). Using the updated DTF, water system planners and project managers would be better able to understand the relative magnitudes of the varied risks they face, and target investments in adaptation measures to best reduce their vulnerabilities to change. Next steps for the DTF include enhancements in: modeling of extreme event risks; coupling of human‐hydrologic systems; integration of surface water and groundwater systems; the generation of tradeoffs between economic, social, and ecological factors; incorporation of water quality considerations; and interactive data visualization.     

Flexibility in Water Resources Management: Review of Concepts and Development of Assessment Measures for Flood Management Systems

Discussions around adapting water management systems to climate change often express the need to increase system flexibility. Yet despite the frequent use of the term flexibility, very little work has examined what exactly it means to have a flexible water management system, what features of a system make it more flexible than another system, or when the costs to implement flexible options outweigh the benefits gained from increased flexibility. To define and operationalize the concept of flexibility in the field of water resources management, this article reviews and analyzes concepts of flexibility from the fields of information technology, manufacturing, management, and adaptive social‐ecological systems. We identify five characteristics of flexible water resources systems, namely: slack, redundancy, connectivity, compatibility/coordination, and adjustability. We then operationalize the assessment of flexibility for flood management systems by proposing original flexibility metrics and discussing their application. We conclude with a discussion on the tradeoffs of increasing flexibility.     

SIMULATION AND DECISIONMAKING: THE PLATTE RIVER BASIN IN NEBRASKA1

Substantial conflict exists over water management and allocation in the Platte River Basin of Nebraska. An interdisciplinary computer simulation model, representing the water quantity, water quality, environmental, and economic dimensions of the conflict, was developed in order to analyze the tradeoffs among allocation scenarios. Most importantly, decisionmakers and interest groups were involved in model development. Simulation results for a base case and two scenarios are presented. One scenario favors protection of instream flow for wildlife; the other favors water diversions for agriculture. Impacts of the instream flow scenario, as measured by the amount of land irrigated, groundwater levels, the amount of wildlife habitat for cranes and catfish, and net agricultural benefits did not differ greatly from those of the base case. However, impacts of the diversion scenario were substantial. On the negative side, instream flows and wildlife habitat declined an average of 39 percent; while, on the positive side, groundwater levels and net agricultural benefits each increased 6 percent. The modeling process was successful insofar as it promoted an understanding among the highly diverse interest groups of the systems nature of the Basin. One agreement on a water diversion schedule among three of the parties has been reached, partly as a result of this process. More comprehensive compromises have not yet been forged. Our experience, however, indicates that modeling success at the policymaking level depends more on the extent to which the policymakers understand the model than it does on model sophistication.     

Maintaining Volunteer Commitment to Local Watershed Initiatives

Australia's Landcare program is advanced as a successful international example of local watershed groups and governments working together to improve natural resource management. One of the aspects considered critical in the success of watershed groups is engaging widespread participation. This paper draws on two regional surveys that explored burnout, or loss of engagement, among Landcare participants in the state of Victoria using the Maslach Burnout Inventory. Survey findings indicated that a large proportion of respondents were experiencing high burnout in terms of low personal accomplishment and suggested that there was potential for burnout to increase. The authors suggest that the expectations of watershed groups must be based around a realistic assessment of the capacity for volunteer groups to deliver improved environmental and social outcomes.     

Perceiving Patagonia: An Assessment of Social Values and Perspectives Regarding Watershed Ecosystem Services and Management in Southern South America

Research on human dimensions of ecosystems through the ecosystem services (ES) concept has proliferated over recent decades but has largely focused on monetary value of ecosystems while excluding other community-based values. We conducted 312 surveys of general community members and regional researchers and decision-makers (specialists) to understand local perceptions and values of watershed ES and natural resource management in South America’s southern Patagonian ecoregion. Results indicated that specialists shared many similar values of ES with community members, but at the same time their mentalities did not capture the diversity of values that existed within the broader community. The supporting services were most highly valued by both groups, but generally poorly understood by the community. Many services that are not easily captured in monetary terms, particularly cultural services, were highly valued by community members and specialists. Both groups perceived a lack of communication and access to basic scientific information in current management approaches and differed slightly in their perspective on potential threats to ES. We recommend that a community-based approach be integrated into the natural resource management framework that better embodies the diversity of values that exist in these communities, while enhancing the science-society dialog and thereby encouraging the application of multiple forms of ecological knowledge in place-based environmental management.