Do mountain log skinks (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pseudemoia entrecasteauxii</Emphasis>) modify their behaviour in the presence of two predators?

Prey often adopt antipredator strategies to reduce the likelihood of predation. In the presence of predators, prey may use antipredator strategies that are effective against a single predator (specific) or that are effective against several predators (nonspecific). Most studies have been confined to single predator environments although prey are often faced with multiple predators. When more than one predator is present, specific antipredator behaviours can conflict and avoidance of one predator may increase vulnerability to another. To test how prey cope with this dilemma, I recorded the behaviours of lizards responding to the nonlethal cues of a bird and snake presented singly and simultaneously. Lizards use specific and conflicting antipredator tactics when confronted with each predator, as evidenced by refuge use. However, when both predators were present, lizards refuge use was the same as in the predator-free environment, indicating that they abandoned refuge use as a primary mechanism for predator avoidance. In the presence of both predators, they reduced their overall movement and time spent thermoregulating. This shift in behaviour may represent a compromise to minimize overall risk, following a change in predator exposure. This provides evidence of plasticity in lizard antipredator behaviour and shows that prey responses to two predators cannot be accurately predicted from what is observed when only one predator is present.Communicated by W. Cooper     

Tidal regime dictates the cascading consumptive and nonconsumptive effects of multiple predators on a marsh plant

Prey perception of predators can dictate how prey behaviorally balance the need to avoid being eaten with the need to consume resources, and this perception and consequent behavior can be strongly influenced by physical processes. Physical factors, however, can also alter the density and diversity of predators that pursue prey. Thus, it remains uncertain to what extent variable risk perception and antipredator behavior vs. variation in predator consumption of prey underlie prey-resource dynamics and give rise to large-scale patterns in natural systems. In an experimental food web where tidal inundation of marsh controls which predators access prey, crab and conch (predators) influenced the survivorship and antipredator behavior of snails (prey) irrespective of whether tidal inundation occurred on a diurnal or mixed semidiurnal schedule. Specifically, cues of either predator caused snails to ascend marsh leaves; snail survivorship was reduced more by unrestrained crabs than by unrestrained conchs; and snail survivorship was lowest with multiple predators than with any single predator despite interference. In contrast to these tidally consistent direct consumptive and nonconsumptive effects, indirect predator effects differed with tidal regime: snail grazing of marsh leaves in the presence of predators increased in the diurnal tide but decreased in the mixed semidiurnal tidal schedule, overwhelming the differences in snail density that resulted from direct predation. In addition, results suggest that snails may increase their foraging to compensate for stress-induced metabolic demand in the presence of predator cues. Patterns from natural marshes spanning a tidal inundation gradient (from diurnal to mixed semidiurnal tides) across 400 km of coastline were consistent with experimental results: despite minimal spatial variation in densities of predators, snails, abiotic stressors, and marsh productivity, snail grazing on marsh plants increased and plant biomass decreased on shorelines exposed to a diurnal tide. Because both the field and experimental results can be explained by tidal-induced variation in risk perception and snail behavior rather than by changes in snail density, this study reinforces the importance of nonconsumptive predator effects in complex natural systems and at large spatial scales.     

Performance level and efficiency of two differing predator-avoidance strategies depend on nutritional state of the prey fish

Animal prey has developed a variety of behavioural strategies to avoid predation. Many fish species form shoals in the open water or seek refuge in structurally complex habitats. Since anti-predator strategies bear costs and are energy-demanding, we hypothesised that the nutritional state of prey should modify the performance level and efficiency of such strategies. In aquaria either containing or lacking a structured refuge habitat, well-fed or food-deprived juvenile roach (Rutilus rutilus) were exposed to an open-water predator (pikeperch, Sander lucioperca). Controls were run without predators. In the presence of the predator, roach enhanced the performance of the anti-predator strategy and increased the use of the refuge habitat whereby food-deprived roach were encountered more often in the structure than well-fed roach. Nonetheless more starved than well-fed roach were fed upon by the predator. In the treatments offering only open-water areas, roach always formed dense shoals in the presence of the predator. The shoal density, however, was lower in starved roach. Starving fish in shoals experienced the highest predation mortality across all experimental treatments. The experiment confirmed the plasticity of the anti-predator behaviour in roach and demonstrated that food deprivation diminished the efficiency of shoaling more strongly than the efficiency of hiding. The findings may be relevant to spatial distribution of prey and predator–prey interactions under natural conditions because when prey are confronted with phases of reduced resource availability, flexible anti-predator strategies may lead to dynamic habitat use patterns.     

Harvesting creates ecological traps: consequences of invisible mortality risks in predator-prey metacommunities

Models of two-patch predator-prey metacommunities are used to explore how the global predator population changes in response to additional mortality in one of the patches. This could describe the dynamics of a predator in an environment that includes a refuge area where that predator is protected and a spatially distinct ("risky") area where it is harvested. The predator's movement is based on its perceived fitness in the two patches, but the risk from the additional mortality is potentially undetectable; this often occurs when the mortality is from human harvesting or from a novel type of top predator. Increases in undetected mortality in the risky area can produce an abrupt collapse of either the refuge population or of the entire predator population when the mortality rate exceeds a threshold level. This is due to the attraction of the risky patch, which has abundant prey due to its high predator mortality. Extinction of the refuge predator population does not occur when the refuge patch has a higher maximum per capita predator growth rate than the exploited patch because the refuge is then more attractive when the predator is rare. The possibility of abrupt extinction of one or both patches from high densities in response to a small increase in harvest is often associated with alternative states. In such cases, large reductions in mortality may be needed to avoid extinction in a collapsing predator population, or to reestablish an extinct population. Our analysis provides a potential explanation for sudden collapses of harvested populations, and it argues for more consideration of adaptive movement in designing protected areas.     

Predators choosing between patches with standing crop: the influence of switching rules and input types

Where prey arriving in a patch are not consumed immediately, they will accumulate. Predators are then presented with a prey density or standing crop that increases through further input, and decreases through the consumption by predators. Firstly, I show that the switching rule of predators has a significant influence on the expected predator equilibrium distribution in such a dynamic system. Three rules are compared; for all rules, analytical solutions are calculated (where possible). To test their plausibility for natural situations, predator distributions are simulated given the assumption that each predator obtains individual patch profitability estimates by using a common learning rule. As long as prey arrive in the patches in constant numbers per time unit, the first rule leads to input matching because predators stop switching when consumption in the two patches is equal. The other two rules, where predators continue to sample both patches even in the equilibrium state, lead to predator distributions where the more profitable patch is underused. The final equilibrium depends on the exact assumptions of the switching rule; however, it is independent of interference. But if the input delivered into a patch is a function of the current prey standing crop (for example in a reproducing prey population), predator and prey distributions will not reach an equilibrium in most cases: either standing crops increase indefinitely, or they approach zero, with all predators concentrating on the better patch. Only a small number of parameter sets show intermediate crops that are reasonably stable. With this input type, only up to 54% of the simulations reach the expected distribution. In a system with competition for dynamic standing crop, it is therefore essential to know the type of input and the switching-rule used by predators to be able to predict equilibrium predator distributions. Received: 17 March 1995/Accepted after revision: 5 November 1995     

Indirect effects of prey swamping: differential seed predation during a bamboo masting event

Resource pulses often involve extraordinary increases in prey availability that "swamp" consumers and reverberate through indirect interactions affecting other community members. We developed a model that predicts predator-mediated indirect effects induced by an epidemic prey on co-occurring prey types differing in relative profitability/preference and validated our model by examining current-season and delayed effects of a bamboo mass seeding event on seed survival of canopy tree species in mixed Patagonian forests. The model shows that predator foraging behavior, prey profitability, and the scale of prey swamping influence the character and strength of short-term indirect effects on various alternative prey. When in large prey-swamped patches, nonselective predators decrease predation on all prey types. Selective predators, instead, only benefit prey of similar quality to the swamping species, while very low or high preference prey remain unaffected. Negative indirect effects (apparent competition) may override such positive effects (apparent mutualism), especially for highly preferred prey, when prey-swamped patches are small enough to allow predator aggregation and/or predators show a reproductive numerical response to elevated food supply. Seed predation patterns during bamboo (Chusquea culeou) masting were consistent with predicted short-term indirect effects mediated by a selective predator foraging in large prey-swamped patches. Bamboo seeds and similarly-sized Austrocedrus chilensis (ciprés) and Nothofagus obliqua (roble) seeds suffered lower predation in bamboo flowered than nonflowered patches. Predation rates on the small-seeded Nothofagus dombeyi (coihue) and the large-seeded Nothofagus alpina (rauli) were independent of bamboo flowering. Indirect positive effects were transient; three months after bamboo seeding, granivores preyed heavily upon all seed types, irrespective of patch flowering condition. Moreover, one year after bamboo seeding, predation rates on the most preferred seed (rauli) was higher in flowered than in nonflowered patches. Despite rapid predator numerical responses, short-term positive effects can still influence community recruitment dynamics because surviving seeds may find refuge beneath the litter produced by bamboo dieback. Together, our theoretical analysis and experiments indicate that indirect effects experienced by alternative prey during and after prey-swamping episodes need not be universal but can change across a prey quality spectrum, and they critically depend on predator-foraging rules and the spatial scale of swamping.     

The growth-predation risk trade-off under a growing gape-limited predation threat

Growth is a critical ecological trait because it can determine population demography, evolution, and community interactions. Predation risk frequently induces decreased foraging and slow growth in prey. However, such strategies may not always be favored when prey can outgrow a predator's hunting ability. At the same time, a growing gape-limited predator broadens its hunting ability through time by expanding its gape and thereby creates a moving size refuge for susceptible prey. Here, I explore the ramifications of growing gape-limited predators for adaptive prey growth. A discrete demographic model for optimal foraging/growth strategies was derived under the realistic scenario of gape-limited and gape-unconstrained predation threats. Analytic and numerical results demonstrate a novel fitness minimum just above the growth rate of the gape-limited predator. This local fitness minimum separates a slow growth strategy that forages infrequently and accumulates low but constant predation risk from a fast growth strategy that forages frequently and experiences a high early predation risk in return for lower future predation risk and enhanced fecundity. Slow strategies generally were advantageous in communities dominated by gape-unconstrained predators whereas fast strategies were advantageous in gape-limited predator communities. Results were sensitive to the assumed relationships between prey size and fecundity and between prey growth and predation risk. Predator growth increased the parameter space favoring fast prey strategies. The model makes the testable predictions that prey should not grow at the same rate as their gape-limited predator and generally should grow faster than the fastest growing gape-limited predator. By focusing on predator constraints on prey capture, these results integrate the ecological and evolutionary implications of prey growth in diverse predator communities and offer an explanation for empirical growth patterns previously viewed to be anomalies.     

Deterministic approach to the study of the interaction predator-prey in a chemostat with predator mutual interference. Implications for the paradox of enrichment

Our understanding of predator-prey systems has progressed in recent decades mainly due to the ability to test models in chemostats. This study aimed to develop a deterministic model using differential equations to reproduce the dynamics of the interaction of a predator and a prey in a two stage chemostat focusing in the proposed previous prey dependent model of Fussmann et al. (2000) [Fussmann, G.F., Ellner, S.P., Shertzer, K.W., Hairston Jr., N.G., 2000. Crossing the Hopf bifurcation in a live predator-prey system. Science 290, 1358-1360]. The main problem with that model, but parameterized with the values obtained in this study (particularly the concentration of nutrient), was that the temporal trajectory of both the prey and the predator showed very high peaks that eventually led to the extinction of predator in all cases. In the same way the experimental time series obtained in this study does not exhibit the behavior predicted by the model of Fussman et al. On the contrary, as prey density increases, the system actually becomes more stable. Finally, the model that best explained the behavior of the predator and prey in the chemostat, at medium to high dilution rates, was the ratio dependent (algae-nitrogen) model with mutual interference measured in the chemostat (rotifer-alga) and that incorporated the age structure of the predator. Qualitative analysis of the dynamic behavior enabled evaluation of coexistence at equilibrium, coexistence on limit cycles, extinction of the predator or extinction of both populations.     

Coexistence of intraguild predators and prey in resource-rich environments

The prevalence of intraguild predation (IGP) in productive environments has long puzzled ecologists. Theory predicts the exclusion of intraguild prey from such environments, but data consistently defy this expectation. This suggests that coexistence mechanisms at high resource productivity may differ from those at lower productivity. Here I present a mathematical model that investigates multiple coexistence mechanisms. I incorporate two biological features widely observed in IGP communities: intraspecific interference via cannibalism or superparasitism, and temporal refuges arising from differential sensitivities to abiotic variation. I develop predictions based on three aspects of the IG prey-IG predator interaction: mutual invasibility, transient dynamics, and long-term abundances. These predictions specify the conditions under which coexistence mechanisms reinforce vs. deter one another: when a competition-IGP trade-off allows coexistence at intermediate productivity a temporal refuge for the intraguild prey always allows coexistence at high productivity, but intraspecific interference does so only at a net fitness cost to the intraguild predator. Intraspecific interference that benefits the intraguild predator not only reduces tradeoff-mediated coexistence at intermediate productivity, but also undermines the refuge's coexistence-enhancing effect at high productivity. Different mechanism combinations yield characteristic signatures in time series data during transient dynamics. By judicious measurement of parameters and examining time series for critical signatures, one can elucidate the mechanisms that allow IGP to prevail in resource-rich environments.     

Loss of mating opportunities influences refuge use in the Iberian rock lizard,<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Lacerta monticola</Emphasis>

Because time spent in refuge may be costly if prey lose opportunities to forage, fight, or mate, prey allow predators to approach closer before beginning to flee when opportunity costs are high. Because the same opportunity costs may apply to refuge use as to escape, prey should make similar trade-offs between risk of emerging and cost of remaining in refuge. In the Iberian rock lizard, Lacerta monticola, we studied the effects of sex, reproductive season, speed of predator approach, and potential loss of mating opportunities on time spent in refuge following simulated predatory attacks. Lizards of both sexes adjusted refuge use to the level of risk by spending more time in refuge when approached rapidly than slowly. Females remained in refuge for equal times in the mating and postreproductive seasons, but males emerged sooner during the mating season, suggesting adjustment to a cost of lost opportunity to search for mates during the mating season. When a tethered female was nearby, males emerged from refuge earlier than if no female was present, indicating a trade-off between risk and mating opportunity. Approach speed affected emergence time when females were absent, but not when a female was present. Approach speed did not affect the probability that, after emerging, a male would return to court the female. For males that courted females intensely (bit them) before entering refuge, approach speed did not affect latency to emerge, but males that courted less intensely emerged sooner if approached slowly than rapidly. These findings show that males adjust the length of time spent in refuge to both risk of predation and reproductive cost of refuge use.Communicated by A. Mathis     

The influence of intraguild predation on prey suppression and prey release: a meta-analysis

Intraguild predation (IGP) occurs when one predator species consumes another predator species with whom it also competes for shared prey. One question of interest to ecologists is whether multiple predator species suppress prey populations more than a single predator species, and whether this result varies with the presence of IGP. We conducted a meta-analysis to examine this question, and others, regarding the effects of IGP on prey suppression. When predators can potentially consume one another (mutual IGP), prey suppression is greater in the presence of one predator species than in the presence of multiple predator species; however, this result was not found for assemblages with unidirectional or no IGP. With unidirectional IGP, intermediate predators were generally more effective than the top predator at suppressing the shared prey, in agreement with IGP theory. Adding a top predator to an assemblage generally caused prey to be released from predation, while adding an intermediate predator caused prey populations to be suppressed. However, the effects of adding a top or intermediate predator depended on the effectiveness of these predators when they were alone. Effects of IGP varied across different ecosystems (e.g., lentic, lotic, marine, terrestrial invertebrate, and terrestrial vertebrate), with the strongest patterns being driven by terrestrial invertebrates. Finally, although IGP theory is based on equilibrium conditions, data from short-term experiments can inform us about systems that are dominated by transient dynamics. Moreover, short-term experiments may be connected in some way to equilibrium models if the predator and prey densities used in experiments approximate the equilibrium densities in nature.     

How population dynamics shape the functional response in a one-predator-two-prey system

The type III functional response has historically been associated with switching predators; when there is a choice of prey the predator favors the more abundant prey type. Although this functional response has been found in experiments where both prey densities are manipulated, in real world studies the type II functional response is more commonly found. In modeling, the type III functional response is often used in systems where the second prey type is, implicitly, assumed to be constant. Here we define a functional response that takes into account both prey densities. This causes the functional response to show both type II and type III behavior, dependent on the interaction between the two prey densities. If we take into account population dynamics, we find a type II functional response in most cases, because predation regulates the relative prey densities. This explains why type III functional responses are found in experiments where both prey densities are manipulated, but type II functional responses occur when the feedback of population dynamics on the functional response is important. Furthermore, the results show that switching can have a stabilizing or destabilizing effect and can even lead to predator extinction.     

Local interactions between predators and prey call into question commonly used functional responses

Commonly used functional response models (Holling’s type I and type II models) assume that the encounter rate of a predator increases linearly with prey density, provided that the predator is searching for prey. In other other words, aN (a is the baseline encounter rate and N is prey density) describes the encounter rate. This study examined whether the models are adequate when predators and prey interact locally by using a spatially explicit individual based model because local interactions affect the spatial distribution of predators and prey, which also affects the encounter rate. Predators were assumed to possess a spatial perception range that influenced their foraging behavior (e.g., if a prey is in the perception range, the predator moves towards the prey). The effect of antipredator behavior by prey was also examined. The results suggest that prey and predator densities as well as handling time affect the baseline rate (i.e., parameter a) as opposed to the common assumption that the parameter is constant. The nature of model deviations depended on both the antipredator behavior and the predators’ perception range. Understanding these deviations is important as they qualitatively affect community dynamics.     

Activity patterns and predatory behavior of an intertidal nemertean from rocky shores: Prosorhochmus nelsoni (Hoplonemertea) from the Southeast Pacific

Understanding the impact of environmental stressors on predator activity is a prerequisite to understanding the underlying mechanisms shaping community structure. The nemertean Prosorhochmus nelsoni is a common predator in the mid-intertidal zone on rocky shores along the Chilean coast, where it can reach very high abundances (up to 260 ind m⁻²) in algal turfs, algal crusts, barnacle crusts, and mixed substrata. Tidal and diurnal scans revealed that the activity of P. nelsoni is primarily restricted to night and early-morning low tides and is relatively low when air temperatures are high. On average, larger worms crawled faster than smaller worms, with their maximum velocity being influenced by substratum type. Their estimated rate of predation is 0.092 prey items nemertean⁻¹ day⁻¹, just below the laboratory rate of ~0.2 amphipods nemertean⁻¹ day⁻¹ previously estimated for this species. P. nelsoni consumes a diverse spectrum of prey items (i.e., amphipods, isopods, decapods, barnacles, and dipterans) and is possibly exerting a significant influence on its prey populations. We suggest that the opportunistic predatory behavior of this intertidal predator is caused by the trade-off between immediate persistence (e.g., avoidance of desiccation) and long-term survival through successful foraging.     

A predator-prey model with satiation and intraspecific competition

We present a new predator-prey model where, except for the prey growth, assumed to be logistic, we endeavor to give some behavioral justification to all elements of the predator-prey interaction. The functional response takes account of predator satiation and predator competition. It is supported by some experimental evidence. We distinguish two contributions to the numerical response: the positive part, proportional to the functional response, is the birth rate of predators; the negative part is the death rate due to hunger.Two outcomes are possible. If the prey are unable to grow fast enough to replace the amount killed by the predators, both species become extinct. In the opposite case, both populations stabilize at a constant population. At this equilibrium level, the prey are not abundant enough to satiate the predators.The predation rate that allows the highest predator population is one half of the ideal prey growth rate. A higher exploitation rate can allow higher populations only temporarily. Evolved predator behavior, reguges for the prey, or other mechanisms can explain this regulation.Two more population behaviors (cycles and predator extinction) can be obtained with a time-lag in one of the responses. This is shown in a separate paper.The model is structurally stable. It can thus withstand small environmental perturbations.     

Predator hunting mode and habitat domain alter nonconsumptive effects in predator-prey interactions

Predators can affect prey populations through changes in traits that reduce predation risk. These trait changes (nonconsumptive effects, NCEs) can be energetically costly and cause reduced prey activity, growth, fecundity, and survival. The strength of nonconsumptive effects may vary with two functional characteristics of predators: hunting mode (actively hunting, sit-and-pursue, sit-and-wait) and habitat domain (the ability to pursue prey via relocation in space; can be narrow or broad). Specifically, cues from fairly stationary sit-and-wait and sit-and-pursue predators should be more indicative of imminent predation risk, and thereby evoke stronger NCEs, compared to cues from widely ranging actively hunting predators. Using a meta-analysis of 193 published papers, we found that cues from sit-and-pursue predators evoked stronger NCEs than cues from actively hunting predators. Predator habitat domain was less indicative of NCE strength, perhaps because habitat domain provides less reliable information regarding imminent risk to prey than does predator hunting mode. Given the importance of NCEs in determining the dynamics of prey communities, our findings suggest that predator characteristics may be used to predict how changing predator communities translate into changes in prey. Such knowledge may prove particularly useful given rates of local predator change due to habitat fragmentation and the introduction of novel predators.     

Palatability of autotrophic dinoflagellates to newly hatched larval crabs

To determine the general palatability of autotrophic dinoflagellates to newly hatched crab larvae and whether there are taxonomic, predator/prey size relationships, or toxicity components to their ability to discriminate among dinoflagellates, larvae of six species of crabs from two families were fed 16 species/strains of dinoflagellates from three orders. Dinoflagellate cell length ranged from 18 to 50 µm, and toxic and non-toxic species/strains were included. Experiments measuring incidence of prey ingestion, grazing rates on individual constituents of selected prey combinations, and development on one toxic species shown to be readily ingested were conducted between 2000 and 2002. Thirteen of sixteen dinoflagellates were palatable to larvae, with no consistent pattern of prey discrimination based on taxonomic affinity, toxicity, larval hatching season, or predator/prey size relationships. Although the three dinoflagellates not ingested were toxic, three other toxic species/strains were ingested, with accelerated mortality occurring in the one case. Ingestion of non-favored prey occurred only at very low rates when mixed with readily ingested prey, indicating selectivity. Larvae hatching in winter generally ingested dinoflagellates as readily as did zoeae hatched in spring and summer. Newly hatched larvae ingested a wide variety of dinoflagellates, while discriminating among related species. Such discrimination will not always prevent larval ingestion of prey that will result in mortality.Communicated by J.P. Grassle, New Brunswick     

Graded recruitment and hunting strategies linked to prey weight and size in the ponerine ant Ectatomma ruidum

According to the weight and size of their prey, Ectatomma ruidum workers can employ different recruitment systems (solitary hunting, cooperative hunting and group hunting with recruitment) when mastering and retrieving prey items from short distances from the nest. Prey size determined the backwards entry typically adopted by this species, while prey weight determined the predatory strategy selected. After a common initial sequence (search for prey, detection, localization), predatory sequences varied in terms of the type of approach, the site of seizure, the reaction after stinging and the type of transport. Nevertheless, irrespective of prey weight and size, seizure was preferentially oriented towards the head and prey were always stung. Short-range recruitment and mass recruitment without trail laying were elicited by a large range of heavy prey (> 2.5 times the weight of an individual worker). According to the mortality risk associated with each prey, hunters exhibited a “prudent” stinging posture associated with an increase in the duration of the subsequent phase of waiting for prey immobilization. The overall time of capture was positively correlated with the weight of the prey. When collective hunting strategies were involved, E. ruidum colonies matched the number of recruited hunters to the size and weight of the prey. Compared to solitary hunting strategies, for short food–nest distances, this graded recruitment appeared to enhance the energetic benefits derived by this species from the use of recruitment systems: the higher the number of workers involved in the recruitment process, the greater the energetic benefits obtained. The exhibition or absence of trail laying behavior in the recruitment responses displayed by E. ruidum workers is discussed in relation to their involvement in scavenging or predatory behavior. Received: 27 June 1996 / Accepted after revision: 3 March 1997     

Outbreak suppression by predators depends on spatial distribution of prey

The capacity of a predator population to suppress a prey population that varies in abundance and spatial distribution is explored in a lattice simulation model. The model is based on empirically derived parameters for particular species. Within season predation by Pterostichus cupreus (Coleoptera: Carabidae) of varying densities and distributions of the prey Rhopalosiphum padi (Homoptera: Aphididae) in spring cereals was simulated. From these spatially explicit simulations prey population suppression was found to be largely dependent on the spatial distribution of the prey. A possible mechanism was that high degrees of prey aggregation provided refuge for the prey that, when aggregated, escaped detection by P. cupreus. In contrast, P. cupreus was found to efficiently suppress incipient outbreaks for evenly distributed prey populations, even at high prey densities. A higher predator density compensated for the lowered control ability of the predators for highly aggregated prey populations and hastened the decline of the prey population.     

Cost-Effective Suppression and Eradication of Invasive Predators

Abstract: Introduced predators can have pronounced effects on naïve prey species; thus, predator control is often essential for conservation of threatened native species. Complete eradication of the predator, although desirable, may be elusive in budget‐limited situations, whereas predator suppression is more feasible and may still achieve conservation goals. We used a stochastic predator–prey model based on a Lotka‐Volterra system to investigate the cost‐effectiveness of predator control to achieve prey conservation. We compared five control strategies: immediate eradication, removal of a constant number of predators (fixed‐number control), removal of a constant proportion of predators (fixed‐rate control), removal of predators that exceed a predetermined threshold (upper‐trigger harvest), and removal of predators whenever their population falls below a lower predetermined threshold (lower‐trigger harvest). We looked at the performance of these strategies when managers could always remove the full number of predators targeted by each strategy, subject to budget availability. Under this assumption immediate eradication reduced the threat to the prey population the most. We then examined the effect of reduced management success in meeting removal targets, assuming removal is more difficult at low predator densities. In this case there was a pronounced reduction in performance of the immediate eradication, fixed‐number, and lower‐trigger strategies. Although immediate eradication still yielded the highest expected minimum prey population size, upper‐trigger harvest yielded the lowest probability of prey extinction and the greatest return on investment (as measured by improvement in expected minimum population size per amount spent). Upper‐trigger harvest was relatively successful because it operated when predator density was highest, which is when predator removal targets can be more easily met and the effect of predators on the prey is most damaging. This suggests that controlling predators only when they are most abundant is the “best” strategy when financial resources are limited and eradication is unlikely.