Observed climate-induced changes in plant phenology in the Netherlands

We determined whether climate change in the Netherlands has caused phenological changes since 1868. We analysed over 150,000 plant phenological observations of 320 plant species, obtained by four volunteer networks and one series collected by Mr. Braaksma. With the network data, we compared the timing of life cycle events in three different periods: 1894–1932 (Period 1), 1940–1968 (Period 2) and 2001–2010 (Period 3). For the Braaksma series, we compared the periods 1953–1968 (Period A) with 1969–1992 (Period B). We conclude that until the beginning of the 1990s, there have been no significant changes in the timing of life cycle events. The timing of life cycle events in Period 3 showed an average advance of flowering, leaf unfolding and fruit ripening of 14 days compared with Period 1 and 13 days compared with Period 2. Some species have advanced up to over 35 days. Autumn events occurred up to an average of 7 days later in Period 3 compared to earlier periods. This study shows that, based on network data, changes in climate explain on average 66 % of the variation in timing of phenological events from year to year. For the Braaksma data, this is 38 %. The expected future changes in climate will undoubtedly result in a further lengthening of the growing season. We believe that phenological networks, supported by thousands of volunteers, are needed to quantify, analyse, predict and communicate these phenological changes so various sectors in society can adapt to these changes and prevent significant socio-economic impacts.     

Seasonal changes in daily precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal from 1941 to 2007

This study aims mostly at understanding seasonal variations in the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation events in mainland Portugal. For this purpose, selected precipitation indices that mainly focus on extremes were calculated at the seasonal scale for daily data recorded in the period 1941–2007 at 57 meteorological stations scattered across the area. These indices were explored for trends at the local and regional levels. The results show that there are marked changes in precipitation indices at the seasonal scale. Trends in spring and autumn precipitation have opposite signals. In spring, statistically significant drying trends are found together with a reduction in extremes. In autumn, wetting trends are detected for all indices, although overall they are not significant at the 5 % level. In addition, the relationship between seasonal extreme precipitation indices and atmospheric large-scale modes of low-frequency variability is analysed by means of a seasonal correlation analysis. Four modes of low-frequency variability are explored. Results confirm that, over mainland Portugal, the North Atlantic Oscillation is one of the most important teleconnection patterns in any season and the mode of variability that has the greatest influence on precipitation extremes in the area, particularly in the winter and autumn.     

Role of climate risks and socio-economic factors in influencing the impact of climatic extremes: a normalisation study in the context of Odisha,India

Economic costs imposed by climatic extremes have been increasing over the years and are expected to follow a similar trend in the coming years as well. Such costs are incurred due to two factors: (1) natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change and (2) exposure and vulnerability of socio-economic factors. The impact of these factors as identified separately through a ‘normalisation technique’ is analysed in the existing normalisation studies conducted mostly in developed country contexts; these have produced mixed results. However, one needs to enquire about the influence of the above two factors in a developing country context where the anticipated impacts of climate extremes are significant. This study, therefore, makes an attempt to adjust impact data, in terms of the reported population affected and economic damages of three extreme events, namely cyclones, floods and droughts, together for societal changes between 1972 and 2009 in Odisha in eastern India. Further, the second component is analysed in two ways: (1) assuming that exposed socio-economic factors are equally vulnerable similar to the other normalisation studies, i.e. no adaptation and (2) incorporating adaptation in the existing normalisation methods—which has attracted less attention so far in the literature. The results suggest that: (a) both the natural climate variability and the socio-economic factors influence the increasing damages in the recent decades, and (b) when adaptation is introduced in the normalisation model, economic losses have reduced significantly compared to the estimates using the existing normalisation models.     

Interannual variation in productivity of steppe pastures as related to climatic changes

The results of long-term stationary research on the assessment of aboveground phytomass and soil moisture dynamics in a steppe pasture are presented. An analysis of annual and interannual variation in meteorological parameters over the study period has been performed, and, on this basis, the dependence of productivity on climatic changes has been determined.     

Impact of climatic conditions on irrigation water requirements and hydraulic characteristics of modern irrigation systems

Irrigation system performance regards as a function of climatic conditions. The present study was carried out to study this phenomenon. Sugar beet and sesame corps were cultivated during two agricultural seasons of 2017/2018 and 2018/2019 irrigated with drip and sprinkler systems. The drip and sprinkler systems performance was evaluated in terms of hydraulic characteristics added to irrigation water requirements. The recorded monthly values were compared to the traditional estimation method. The results revealed that irrigation system efficiency was increased by increasing ambient temperature for the drip irrigation system, and vice versa was noticed with the sprinkler irrigation system. Emission uniformity and application efficiency of emitters were increased by increasing ambient temperature. While the sprinkler flow rate and distribution uniformity were decreased by increasing ambient temperature. For drip irrigation system, the average total amount of irrigation water requirements using traditional estimation for sugar beet (2372 m³/fed) was less than the actual calculated (2439 m³/fed), while for sesame crop, the traditional estimation method (2556 m³/fed) was higher than actual calculated (2477 m³/fed). Using a sprinkler system, the average total amount of irrigation water requirements by the traditional estimation (2689 and 2897 m³/fed) was less than the actual calculated (2709 and 3044 m³/fed) for sugar beet and sesame crops, respectively. So, it is important to consider the effects of climatic conditions through the agricultural season.

     

Shifting from apple to peach farming in Kazuno, northern Japan: perceptions of and responses to climatic and non-climatic impacts

Apple farmers in Kazuno, northern Japan, have started to grow peaches in the northernmost climatic region suitable for peach farming. Here, we investigate the process from the initial introduction of peach cultivation to its diffusion focusing on the farmers’ perceptions of climatic and non-climatic stimuli and their actions to respond to these stressors. Interviews with the farmers identified three distinct groups. Four farmers (Group 1) initiated the transition to peach production, which then spread to other farmers (Group 2) via personal connections. Later, after the provision of various means of support from the local government and the producers’ cooperative, many more apple farmers (Group 3) decided to begin peach production. Most farmers recognized the risk of damages to apple production as a result of typhoons and drought. However, only Group 1 farmers, who depend on direct sales to customers, mentioned these climate-related damages as a reason to shift toward peach cultivation in order to maintain their customers. The peach fruit was specifically chosen as a replacement for apple because it is less vulnerable to these climatic stressors. For Group 3 farmers, the financial losses associated with these climate-related events could be compensated for by insurance. Their decision to grow peach is largely due to its higher price and immunity against a specific disease which affects apples but they only shifted once institutional support was available, thereby reducing the risk in cultivating a new species. Our findings suggest that the role of institutions was not to drive the process of the adaptation itself but rather to provide relevant support to farmers to enable them to shift to new crop varieties more easily. We argue that such process-based understanding is crucial in formulating strategies to increase adaptive capacity in agriculture.     

Quantifying changes to historic fish habitat extent on north coast NSW floodplains,Australia

Global degradation of coastal ecosystems is influencing the provision of ecosystem services, including fisheries maintenance services. Degradation of the Australian coastal zone and its resources following European occupation has been recognised for some time. This includes the loss of ecologically important coastal wetlands, which have strong trophic and habitat links to fisheries. In NSW, structural flood mitigation works are a principle driver of the decline of coastal wetlands; however, little action has been taken to quantify the extent of decline due to limited information of the pre-European settlement extent of coastal wetlands. We use spatial data sets in GIS to quantify prime fish habitat and calculate the loss of fish habitat for the large coastal floodplains of northern NSW, which are significant contributors to the commercial and recreational fisheries of NSW. The technique is validated by comparison with early maps of wetland distribution. We identified pre-European distribution of available fish habitat of approximately 477,000 ha, of which 87,000 ha was identified as prime fish habitat. Approximately 62,000 ha of prime fish habitat was impacted by drainage of the coastal floodplains in association with flood mitigation works which intensified in the mid-1950s and were largely completed by 1971, equating to a loss of approximately 72 % of prime fish habitat. The declining value of the ecosystem services provided by prime fish habitat following drainage is likely to be substantial. Some actions have taken place to restore the functions of this habitat although significant opportunities remain to reverse this decline through management actions that restore natural drainage and reinstate tidal exchange. These actions become even more important as pressures on coastal wetlands increase with climate change and associated sea-level rise.     

Dynamics of carbon balance components in fallow arable lands on the Valdai Upland

The dynamics of carbon pools in the live phytomass, necromass, and soil reservoirs have been analyzed in fallow arable lands of Novgorod oblast. The results show that the amounts of above- and belowground necromass increase with the age of fallows, while the dynamics of live phytomass have no distinct trend. Comparisons with archival data show that the stocks of soil organic carbon in the studied ecosystems have decreased by 1.39 t C/ha since 1983, which is equivalent to an annual loss of 0.03 t C/ha. The main factors accounting for changes in the carbon stocks of fallow soils are the initial organic carbon contents in topsoil, the intensity of agromeliorative measures taken during the period of agricultural land use, and carbon contents in soils of meadow communities typical for a given region (zone).     

GCM-based analysis of water availability along the Tone River and Tokyo Metropolitan Area under climatic changes

Tone River supplies most of the water requirements of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA). Lowering of Tone flow and yearly fluctuation, however, is causing water shortage along TMA nowadays. This study investigated the future water availability scenarios under climatic changes. A state-of-the-art approach to utilize the output of several GCM has been demonstrated to investigate the future water availability scenarios for TMA from the Tone River. An integrated modeling approach for water balance considering several hydrological risk indices was adopted to quantify the future changes in this case. It is observed that the future summer precipitation along the Tone basin is going to be increased considerably, while an almost constant or decreasing trend is observed for winter season. Natural flow availability for winter or spring seasons thus can be crucial under future scenarios. After reservoir routing, the hydrological risk indices estimated, however, were not found to be changed significantly due to the presence of a robust reservoir system at the upstream.     

Effect of climatic conditions on the expression of self-fertility in Scots pine

The results of 12-year experiment on monitoring the types of Scots pine seed reproduction systems in Voronezh oblast are generalized. Sample structure with respect to self-fertility in optimal years is characterized and its transformations in years with weather anomalies (cold, warm, moderately and severely droughty) are described. It is shown that the contribution of self-fertilization to annual seed production increases proportionally to the severity of weather stress affecting the population.     

Conversion of specialised dairy farming systems into sustainable mixed farming systems in Cuba

From the 1960s onwards, a ‘High External Input’ dairy production model was applied widely in Cuba. Overall milk production of the national herd increased considerably, but the system was inefficient from both a financial and energetic point of view. In the early 1990s, after the abrupt end of inflow of capital and other resources from Eastern Europe, the dairy sector collapsed. In the short term, the modern infrastructure of milk production deteriorated and the sector experienced profound vulnerability. However, in the longer term, this situation stimulated a search for more sustainable approaches, such as low external input Mixed Farming Systems (MFS). The current study aimed to evaluate two small scale prototype farms to assess the implications of converting ‘Low External Input’ Dairy Farming Systems into MFS. Fifteen agro-ecological and financial indicators were selected and monitored over a 6-year period. Two configurations of MFS, i.e. the proportion of the farm area occupied by arable crops, were tested: 25 and 50%. Productivity, energy efficiency and cost-effectiveness all improved following conversion. Total energy input was low for both farms and decreased over time, whereas energy efficiency was high and increased over time. Human labour input was high directly following conversion, but decreased by one-third over the 6-year period. This study demonstrates, at an experimental scale, the potential of MFS to achieve ecological, productivity and financial advantages for dairy production in Cuba. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

金融节能、金融发展对碳排放变化的影响研究

本文将金融节能与金融发展同时引入传统LMDI分解模型,并融合脱钩弹性指数,分析了两者对碳排放变化的影响机理。在此基础上,本文还检验了1997—2015年中国29个省区金融节能与金融发展的碳排放效应。研究发现:首先,尽管1997—2015年中国碳排放规模的扩张趋势较为明显,短期来看,这一演变仍然大体经历了三个阶段,即碳排放增量持续扩张期、碳排放增量波动下降期以及碳排放增量平稳期。其次,不仅金融节能、金融发展以及经济增长是在短期和长期诱发中国碳排放变化的三个最主要因素,而且前两者对中国碳排放变化的影响还大于后者。再次,金融节能对中国碳排放变化的短期和长期作用方向始终与金融发展对中国碳排放变化的短期和长期作用方向相反。最后,金融节能和金融发展与中国碳排放变化之间在短期内基本维持弱脱钩或强负脱钩两种状态,而在长期呈现强负脱钩状态,通过分解这些脱钩弹性状态的诱因,不仅直接影响和交互影响的作用方向始终相反,而且两者还分别在金融节能与中国碳排放脱钩弹性变动以及金融发展与中国碳排放脱钩弹性变动中发挥截然相反的作用。     

Modeling the effects of emission controls in the Netherlands

A photochemical air quality simulation model was applied to an area covering a large portion of The Netherlands and nearby source areas in Belgium and Germany. Simulations of an O₃ episode typical of those that occur during summer months yielded good agreement between predicted and observed O₃ levels. The level of performance for NO₂ and NO was somewhat less than that for O₃. The model was used to study the influence of mobile and stationary sources within the region, as well as the inflow of pollutants from outside the region on predicted O₃, NO₂, and NO levels within the modeling region. Pollutants transported into the region appear to have a significant influence on O₃ levels. The influence of stationary source emissions on O₃ and NO₂ levels is greater than that of mobile source emissions. The model has been a valuable tool in evaluating the possible influence of different source categories and control regulations on pollutant concentration levels.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of climatic variables in the western part of Bangladesh

Monitoring and detecting trends of climatic variables like rainfall and temperature are essential for agricultural developments in the context of climate change. The present study has detected trends in annual and cropping seasonal rainfall and temperature data for the period of 1961–2011 using Mann–Kendall (MK) test, Spearman’s rho (SR) test and modified Mann–Kendall test that has been applied to the significant lag-1 serial correlated time series data, and slope has been estimated using Sen’s Slope estimator for twelve meteorological stations located in the western part of Bangladesh covering about 41 % of the country. Almost 71 % trends explored by MK test in annual rainfall are statistically insignificant, and SR test also complies it. The spatial distribution of rainfall trend shows insignificant positive trends in major part of the area. Significant positive trends both by MK test and by SR test at 95 % confidence levels are observed at rates of 8.56, 11.15 and 13.66 mm/year at Dinajpur, Rangpur and Khepupara stations, respectively, and the Kharif season rainfall of these stations also shows significant increasing trends except Dinajpur. On the other hand, significant decreasing trends in annual rainfall are found at Bhola (?11.67 mm/year) and Rajshahi (?5.951 mm/year) stations and decreasing trends in rainfall dominated the Pre-Kharif season over the area. But, 83.33 % of the stations show rising trends in annual mean temperature with significant positive trends (as observed by both MK test and SR test) at Rangpur, Bogra, Faridpur, Jessore and Bhola stations where the rate of changes vary from 0.013 °C/year at Faridpur to 0.08 °C/year at Bhola. Most of the trends in Rabi and Pre-Kharif seasons of mean temperatures are not statistically significant. However, all stations except Barisal show significant rising trends in temperature in Kharif season. To cope with this changing pattern of rainfall and temperature, effective adaptation strategies should be taken to keep up the agricultural production that is related to livelihood of the most people and to ensure the country’s food security.     

High-resolution spatial analysis of stomatal ozone uptake in arable crops and pastures

Ozone effects on plants depend on atmospheric transport and stomatal uptake. Thus, ozone-risk assessments should use measured ozone concentrations and account for the influence of atmospheric conditions and soil moisture on stomatal and nonstomatal ozone deposition. This requires disaggregated data for the physical input parameters and species-specific data for specific stomatal conductance (g(s)). In this study, an approach was developed based on a resistance analogue transport model. This model requires interpolated routine-measuring data for ozone concentration at 3-5 m height, wind speed, precipitation, and soil moisture content as inputs to estimate the amount of ozone taken up by wheat (Triticum aestivum) and grass/clover pastures with a 1x1-km resolution. The model was applied to the area under agricultural production in Switzerland. Using data for June 1994, the calculations revealed that the median of the distribution of stomatal ozone uptake was 88% higher in wheat compared to grassland. This was mainly due to the higher maximum stomatal conductance in wheat. Because ozone flux to soil and to external plant surfaces was comparable in both vegetation types, the difference in the stomatal fluxes was mainly responsible for distinct differences in flux partitioning. In both cases, only about 11% of the total cumulative flux was absorbed by external plant surfaces, whereas the soil was a strong sink responsible for as much as 50% of the total flux into grasslands. The higher-ozone flux to wheat resulted in clearly lower-ozone concentrations at canopy height, but no significant correlation between cumulative canopy-level ozone exposure, expressed as accumulated exposure above 40 ppb (AOT40), and stomatal uptake was found. Thus, to estimate the ozone risk for crops using a flux-based approach may lead to results that differ substantially from those obtained with a concentration-based approach.     

The Holocene dynamics of vegetation and climatic conditions on the eastern slope of the Subpolar Urals

Changes in the vegetation and climatic conditions on the eastern slope of the Subpolar Urals over the past 10000 years have been reconstructed on the basis of integrated palynological, botanical, and radiocarbon analysis of material from two sections of peat deposits in the floodplains of the Lyapin and Man’ya rivers (the Severnaya Sos’va basin). The dynamics of regional vegetation have been traced: from the herb–shrub tundra in the late postglacial time to the spruce–larch forest–tundra and sparse larch–birch–spruce stands in the Early Holocene, to birch–pine–spruce forests with an admixture of fir in the Middle Holocene, and to northern taiga forests with dominance of Scots pine and Siberian stone pine (similar to present-day forests) in the Late Holocene. The results show that the northern taiga zone of the study region in the period between approximately 5500 and 2500 years BP was occupied by forests of middle and southern taiga facies, as the climate was significantly warmer than it is today.     

Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century

The eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, a region with diverse socioeconomic and cultural identities, is exposed to strong climatic gradients between its temperate north and arid south. Model projections of the twenty-first century indicate increasing hot weather extremes and decreasing rainfall. We present model results, which suggest that across the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey climate change is particularly rapid, and especially summer temperatures are expected to increase strongly. Temperature rise can be amplified by the depletion of soil moisture, which limits evaporative cooling, prompted by the waning of large-scale weather systems that generate rain. Very hot summers that occurred only rarely in the recent past are projected to become common by the middle and the end of the century. Throughout the region, the annual number of heat wave days may increase drastically. Furthermore, conditions in the region are conducive for photochemical air pollution. Our model projections suggest strongly increasing ozone formation, a confounding health risk factor particularly in urban areas. This adds to the high concentrations of aerosol particles from natural (desert dust) and anthropogenic sources. The heat extremes may have strong impacts, especially in the Middle East where environmental stresses are plentiful.     

Long-term increase in climatic dryness in the East-Mediterranean as evidenced for the island of Samos

The Eastern Mediterranean region is among the regions which were predicted to become drier under IPCC climate scenarios. Here, we document a gradual reduction of rainfall and tree growth and the loss of rural springs during the last decades of the twentieth century. Years with severe drought are associated with very low tree growth (dendrochronology) and dry falling of springs as evidenced by interviews with local stakeholders. The paper discusses the consequences of accelerating drought on natural vegetation and agriculture and points at the interaction with fire dynamics and economy, both likely to enhance the drought effect.