Dynamic material flow analysis of steel resources in Korea

Material flow analysis (MFA) is an evaluation technique that systematically identifies the flows and stocks of materials within predefined spatial and temporal boundaries. In this paper, the steel resources in Korea are investigated using dynamic MFA. Iron ore and steel scrap are added as raw material components during the production processes of steel, which is then used in a variety of product groups such as construction products, transportation equipment, machinery/metal products, electrical/electronic devices, and other products through fabrication and manufacturing processes. When such product groups are discarded, they are either recycled or landfilled. With consideration for the lifetimes of various product groups in conjunction with steel resource flows in Korea, dynamic MFA is conducted on the flows of steel stock change and annual scrap generation. By 2020, these two flows are expected to increase by as much as 40% and 30%, respectively, compared to 2008, with transportation equipment, in particular, envisaged to experience high growth. At the current recycling rate, however, it will be hard to meet future scrap demand. According to the scenario analysis, 100% of this future scrap demand can be supplied domestically if the recycling rate is increased to over 70% for all product groups, except construction products and transportation equipment, which already have high recycling rates. By 2020, the reduction in scrap importation costs is projected to offer a financial gain of 2.3 billion dollars.     

A method for regional-scale material flow and decoupling analysis: A demonstration case study of Aichi prefecture,Japan

We have developed a method to analyse the annual material flow in a prefecture and have calculated environmental indicators for a prefecture. Material flow analysis (MFA) is important to clarify the structure of a regional society and obtain environmental indicators for a circular society. However, MFA has not advanced in local governments because of few local statistics. We have developed a method to analyse the annual material flow in Aichi prefecture from 1980 to 2000 using an input–output (I–O) table and statistics of Aichi. We have verified the accuracy of this method by comparing its results for 2000 which calculated on the basis of official I–O table for 1995 with the I–O table data for 2000; the correlation coefficient obtained in this case is greater than 0.95. Moreover, by performing MFA, we have estimated the resource consumption and decoupling indicator of each industry in Aichi prefecture from 1980 to 2000. We could obtain more detailed and accurate environmental indicators by using our method. From these results, we could estimate the progress of Aichi prefecture towards a circular society.     

A method for regional-scale material flow and decoupling analysis: A demonstration case study of Aichi prefecture, Japan

We have developed a method to analyse the annual material flow in a prefecture and have calculated environmental indicators for a prefecture. Material flow analysis (MFA) is important to clarify the structure of a regional society and obtain environmental indicators for a circular society. However, MFA has not advanced in local governments because of few local statistics. We have developed a method to analyse the annual material flow in Aichi prefecture from 1980 to 2000 using an input–output (I–O) table and statistics of Aichi. We have verified the accuracy of this method by comparing its results for 2000 which calculated on the basis of official I–O table for 1995 with the I–O table data for 2000; the correlation coefficient obtained in this case is greater than 0.95. Moreover, by performing MFA, we have estimated the resource consumption and decoupling indicator of each industry in Aichi prefecture from 1980 to 2000. We could obtain more detailed and accurate environmental indicators by using our method. From these results, we could estimate the progress of Aichi prefecture towards a circular society.     

Country-scale phosphorus balancing as a base for resources conservation

In order to effectively conserve the non-renewable resource phosphorus (P), flows and stocks of P must be known at national, regional and global scales. P is a key non-renewable resource because its use as fertilizer cannot be substituted posing a constraint on the global food production in the long-term. This paper presents a methodology to establish country-wide P balances that emphasises resource use. We develop a material flow analysis (MFA) model that comprises all relevant flows and stocks of P in five subsystems, seven processes and 36 material flows. For quantification, statistical data from economic and agricultural sources as well as available information about P partitioning in natural and anthropogenic processes are used. Special attention is paid to data gaps and uncertainties. The model was tested in two case studies on P management in Turkey and Austria. MFA appears to be a tool well suited for establishing country-wide P balances, provided that national statistics are well-structured and accessible. If a common approach is used for modelling P-flows and stocks, regional and national balances can be compared and linked towards larger scale P balances for an improved management of the resource.     

Material Flow Analysis: a tool to support environmental policy decision making. Case-studies on the city of Vienna and the Swiss lowlands

This paper discusses the use of Material Flow Analysis (MFA) as a tool to support policy decision making in the field of resource and environmental management. In terms of policy, MFA can be used for early recognition, priority setting, to analyse and improve the effectiveness of measures and to design efficient material management strategies in view of sustainability. MFA has a high potential to be implemented as a guiding tool at the regional level, for example as part of a regional environmental management and audit system or as a part of the Local Agenda 21 process. Material management based on MFA is complementary to traditional environmental and resource management strategies, which have tended to focus heavily on specific environmental compartments, and measure the concentration of substances in various media. MFA, in contrast, provides an overview of the total system by linking the anthroposphere (that part of the biosphere in which humans' activities take place) with the environment. This system approach shifts the focus away from the back-end so-called 'filter strategies' to more pro-active front-end measures. MFA examines short- and long-term loadings rather than concentrations and highlights current and potential material accumulations, called material stocks. These stocks represent either potential environmental problems (e.g. large stocks of hazardous materials) or a potential source of future resources (e.g. urban mining). In this way, MFA can assist precautionary policy making by highlighting future environmental or resource issue problems without relying on signals of environmental stress. The objective of materials management is: firstly, to analyse material flows and stocks; secondly, to evaluate these results; and thirdly, to control material flows in view of certain goals such as sustainable development. MFA is an excellent tool for the first objective and is well suited to generate a base for the other two objectives. MFA results can be compared against environmental standards or can be interpreted using assessment or indicator methodologies (such as environmental impact assessment or ecological footprints). Selected results from two studies, carried out for the city of Vienna (substance management) and the Swiss lowlands (timber management), illustrate the use of MFA as a tool for early recognition (resource depletion and environmental quality), for priority setting and for effective policy making.     

Material Flow Analysis: A tool to support environmental policy decision making. Case-studies on the city of Vienna and the Swiss lowlands

This paper discusses the use of Material Flow Analysis (MFA) as a tool to support policy decision making in the field of resource and environmental management. In terms of policy, MFA can be used for early recognition, priority setting, to analyse and improve the effectiveness of measures and to design efficient material management strategies in view of sustainability. MFA has a high potential to be implemented as a guiding tool at the regional level, for example as part of a regional environmental management and audit system or as a part of the Local Agenda 21 process. Material management based on MFA is complementary to traditional environmental and resource management strategies, which have tended to focus heavily on specific environmental compartments, and measure the concentration of substances in various media. MFA, in contrast, provides an overview of the total system by linking the anthroposphere (that part of the biosphere in which humans' activities take place) with the environment. This system approach shifts the focus away from the back-end so-called 'filter strategies' to more pro-active front-end measures. MFA examines short- and long-term loadings rather than concentrations and highlights current and potential material accumulations, called material stocks. These stocks represent either potential environmental problems (e.g. large stocks of hazardous materials) or a potential source of future resources (e.g. urban mining). In this way, MFA can assist precautionary policy making by highlighting future environmental or resource issue problems without relying on signals of environmental stress. The objective of materials management is: firstly, to analyse material flows and stocks; secondly, to evaluate these results; and thirdly, to control material flows in view of certain goals such as sustainable development. MFA is an excellent tool for the first objective and is well suited to generate a base for the other two objectives. MFA results can be compared against environmental standards or can be interpreted using assessment or indicator methodologies (such as environmental impact assessment or ecological footprints). Selected results from two studies, carried out for the city of Vienna (substance management) and the Swiss lowlands (timber management), illustrate the use of MFA as a tool for early recognition (resource depletion and environmental quality), for priority setting and for effective policy making.     

The use of material flow analysis and the ecological footprint in regional policy-making: application and insights from Northern Ireland

This paper aims to contribute to the ongoing debate on the use of resource accounting tools in regional policy-making. The Northern Limits project applied material flow analysis (MFA) and ecological footprinting (EF) to regional policy-making in Northern Ireland over a number of years. The early phase of the research informed the regions first sustainable development strategy which was published in 2006 with key targets relating to the EF and improving the resource efficiency of the economy. Phase II identified the next steps required to address data availability and quality and the use of MFA and EF in providing a measurement and monitoring framework for the strategy and the development of the strategy implementation plan. The use of MFA and EF in sustainable regional policy-making and the monitoring of its implementation is an ongoing process which has raised a number of research issues which can inform the ongoing application and development of these and other resource accounting tools to within Northern Ireland, provide insights for their use in other regions, and help set out the priorities for research to support this important policy area.     

Risk-based standards: integrating top–down and bottom–up approaches

In response to rapidly changing threats posed to increasingly complex socio-technical systems, many in the government and private sector have called for protection through risk-based standards. However, given the nature of these dynamic and uncertain threats, traditional risk assessment techniques may not be sufficient. Instead, there is a critical need for an integrated approach in which decision analytic techniques are used to assess evidence-based data with the values and preferences of decision makers. We point to three examples in the fields of nuclear power regulation, nanotechnology, and cybersecurity, where risk-based approaches (bottom–up) have been combined with decision analysis (top–down) to guide decision makers toward risk management policies that manifest both the best available evidence and the plurality of values within a society.     

福建省经济系统物质流分析研究

运用物质流分析(MFA)方法,对福建省经济系统在1990~2008年间的物质输入与输出进行系统地分析,探讨了福建省经济发展与环境压力的关系。研究结果表明,福建省"资源高投入"的粗放型经济发展模式没有实现根本转变。主要结论有:(1)福建省物质输入量不断上升,能源需求急剧增长;(2)隐藏流不断增加,矿产资源地生态包袱不断增大;(3)区域过程排放缓慢上升,大气污染物排放为主要推动因子;(4)物质需求强度有反弹趋势,经济发展与物质需求出现扩张性"复钩"。最后,对福建省经济可持续发展提出了大力提高资源能源利用率、推进循环经济发展、优化产业结构、继续强化环境综合整治等建议。     

Material flow analysis of paper in Korea. Part I. Data calculation model from the flow relationships between paper products

The flows of paper are analyzed throughout the papermaking processes, with the year 2007 and Korea defined as the system boundaries. In practice, the statistical data on the production, import and export of paper or pulp can be collected with relative ease from the government and industrial associations. However, the input data regarding the volumes of pulp and wastepaper used in different paper products, such as newsprint, printing papers, sanitary and household papers, specialty papers, and corrugating board base, are difficult to obtain because such information is generally kept confidential in the course of corporate operations.The production processes of paper products in Korea are modeled using information on raw materials, their compositions and production yields of products in order to identify and quantify the amounts of pulp and wastepaper used in each paper product. The material flows of paper are then analyzed based on the calculation model derived from the correlation of input and output flows between the individual processes throughout the entire paper lifecycle. Accuracy analysis using both mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) is conducted to verify the amounts of pulp and wastepaper calculated from the proposed model against the volumes of domestically consumed pulp and wastepaper provided in the national statistics. Although the calculated values for the past (i.e., the 1980s and 1990s) differ to some degree from the statistical values, the data for the 2000s have a relatively higher level of accuracy, with the MAPE of the total pulp and recycling volume at 5.39% and 5.30%, respectively, thus validating the adequacy of the proposed modeling method. The proposed calculation model can be effectively used in the material flow analysis (MFA) of paper to reduce the burden of data collection and obtain relatively accurate results.     

Global anthropogenic selenium cycles for 1940–2010

Selenium plays an important role in emerging thin film solar energy technologies. As solar energy is expected to have a larger share in the world's future energy portfolio, the long-term availability of selenium becomes a potential concern, yet no global cycles have ever been generated. In this work, the global cycles, stocks, and flows of selenium are characterized for the entire time period 1940–2010 by using principles of material flow analysis (MFA). The cycles present information on the production, fabrication and manufacturing, use, and resource management stages during that period. The results of the analysis show that during 1940–2010 approximately 90 Gg of refined selenium was produced and entered into fabrication and manufacturing worldwide. 60 Gg of this amount (two-thirds!) was dissipated into the environment through end-uses such as chemicals, pigments, glass manufacturing, metallurgical additives, and fertilizer and feed additives. The in-use stock of selenium is estimated at 2.7 Gg as of 2010. Because of data limitations such as proprietary and withheld information, these figures represent informed estimates rather than exact values. Selenium can be recovered from end-of-life electrical and electronic equipment, while for other end-uses recycling is difficult or impossible. One of the ways to buttress supplies of selenium for future technologies would be to deploy recycling schemes for photovoltaics as well as other electronics applications.     

A future perspective on lithium-ion battery waste flows from electric vehicles

As a proactive step towards understanding future waste management challenges, this paper presents a future oriented material flow analysis (MFA) used to estimate the volume of lithium-ion battery (LIB) wastes to be potentially generated in the United States due to electric vehicle (EV) deployment in the near and long term future. Because future adoption of LIB and EV technology is uncertain, a set of scenarios was developed to bound the parameters most influential to the MFA model and to forecast “low,” “baseline,” and “high” projections of future end-of-life battery outflows from years 2015 to 2040. These models were implemented using technology forecasts, technical literature, and bench-scale data characterizing battery material composition. Considering the range from the most conservative to most extreme estimates, a cumulative outflow between 0.33 million metric tons and 4 million metric tons of lithium-ion cells could be generated between 2015 and 2040. Of this waste stream, only 42% of the expected materials (by weight) is currently recycled in the U.S., including metals such as aluminum, cobalt, copper, nickel, and steel. Another 10% of the projected EV battery waste stream (by weight) includes two high value materials that are currently not recycled at a significant rate: lithium and manganese. The remaining fraction of this waste stream will include materials with low recycling potential, for which safe disposal routes must be identified. Results also indicate that because of the potential “lifespan mismatch” between battery packs and the vehicles in which they are used, batteries with high reuse potential may also be entering the waste stream. As such, a robust end-of-life battery management system must include an increase in reuse avenues, expanded recycling capacity, and ultimate disposal routes that minimize risk to human and environmental health.     

Material flow analysis for a sustainable resource management in island ecosystems

The Galapagos Archipelago (Ecuador) is one of the most well-known natural sites in the world for its unique biodiversity. This sensitive ecosystem is at risk due to a problematic equilibrium between its conservation policy and development demand. To contribute to implementing integrated sustainable resource management in the Galapagos Islands, a material flow analysis (MFA) of Santa Cruz – the island with the highest anthropic pressure in the archipelago – has been performed, outlining a quantitative and qualitative assessment of the direct flow of goods throughout the system. MFA outcomes have been used to evaluate and forecast the impact of some policies and strategies on the local system, focusing in particular on fossil fuel consumption and local agricultural production. This case study stresses the need to introduce a local MFA protocol to decision-makers’ toolbox, as it provides quantitative assessments on a broad spectrum of local development issues.     

The Austrian silver cycle: A material flow analysis

Silver (Ag) is a precious metal of increasing importance. Besides its classical use as a valuable, it is applied in an increasing number of industrial products due to its advantageous chemical properties. As silver is considered a non-renewable resource, it is becoming more and more relevant for individual countries to gain a better understanding of their domestic silver material flows. In our study, a material flow analysis (MFA) of silver in Austria for the period 2012 was carried out, the results of which reveal the major silver flows in the country as well as the imports and exports outside the country. As there is no extraction of silver ore in Austria, the country is depending on silver imports and recycling. Furthermore, the role of the silver coin production that is of considerable importance in Austria is highlighted. The results may help, on a policy level, to determine silver use indicators and support the development of strategies for resource, waste and environmental management of silver. On a modeling level, the results may function as an example for future silver MFA studies in different countries.     

Modification of uncertainty analysis in adapted material flow analysis: Case study of nitrogen flows in the Day-Nhue River Basin,Vietnam

Nitrogen flows impacted by human activities in the Day-Nhue River Basin in northern Vietnam have been modeled using adapted material flow analysis (MFA). This study introduces a modified uncertainty analysis procedure and its importance in MFA. We generated a probability distribution using a Monte Carlo simulation, calculated the nitrogen budget for each process and then evaluated the plausibility under three different criterion sets. The third criterion, with one standard deviation of the budget value as the confidence interval and 68% as the confidence level, could be applied to effectively identify hidden uncertainties in the MFA system. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for revising parameters, followed by the reassessment of the model structure by revising equations or flow regime, if necessary. The number of processes that passed the plausibility test increased from five to nine after reassessment of model uncertainty with a greater model quality. The application of the uncertainty analysis approach to this case study revealed that the reassessment of equations in the aquaculture process largely changed the results for nitrogen flows to environments. The significant differences were identified as increased nitrogen load to the atmosphere and to soil/groundwater (17% and 41%, respectively), and a 58% decrease in nitrogen load to surface water. Thus, modified uncertainty analysis was considered to be an important screening system for ensuring quality of MFA modeling.     

Dynamic material flow analysis of zinc resources in China

Zinc is one of the most widely applied nonferrous metals in China. Study on the applications and recurrent situation of zinc resources is of great strategic importance for the sustainable development of China's economy. In this paper, a dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) method has been adopted to analyze quantificationally zinc resources in China, as well as to analyze and predict the quantity of zinc product scrap and their recycling situation. The weighted average method was applied to calculate average lifetimes of six major zinc products in China. The average lifetimes of battery, zinc oxide, zinc die-casting alloys, zinc material products, galvanized zinc and brass are 0.17, 5.3, 11.1, 12, 21 and 30 years, respectively. Assuming the lifetime of zinc product group obeys the Weibull distribution and the consumption of zinc products varies linearly with time, the future consumption and scrap generation of zinc products will increase continuously. It is expected that they would increase from 49% to 76% during 2004–2020, respectively. Assuming the recycling rate remains unchanged with time, the zinc old scrap index, both the theoretical and actual values, would continue increasing in China. The values are expected to reach 0.402 and 0.076 by 2020, respectively. Therefore, the regeneration resource of depreciated zinc is actually insufficient in China. According to the scenario analysis, the actual value of old scrap indexes is positively correlated with the recycling rate of zinc products. Because galvanized products are the largest consumption area of zinc products in China, the influence of their recycling rate on old scrap index is obviously larger than other zinc products. Through the analysis, this paper suggests that the increase of the recycling rate of zinc products could not only improve to a certain degree China's relative shortage of zinc resources, but greatly relive the supply pressure of zinc in the world.     

Wastewater treatment with a double-layer submerged biological aerated filter,using waste materials as biofilm support

The aim of this research was to determine the performance of a submerged biological aerated filter, composed of a double-layer bed. This bed is made up of a top layer of ceramic material and a bottom layer of plastic material (both from previously used waste material). Effluent concentrations are presented related to the volumetric and hydraulic loads applied. The results were very satisfactory. If effluent concentrations of under 20 mg TBOD5/L and 25 mg SS/L are to be achieved, 4.87 kg TBOD5/m3/d and 3.0 kg SS/m3/d could be applied, respectively. For that maximum TBOD5 volumetric load that can be applied, a very reasonable consumption value of 1.0 kg O2/kg TBOD5, eliminated was obtained. The counter-current flow system outperformed the co-current flow system with respect to TBOD5 and SS removal. The tests were performed at a pilot plant with full scale height. The influent used was primary effluent of a conventional treatment plant. A multivariant analysis (ANOVA) was applied to the results.     

TMDL Implementation in Agricultural Landscapes: A Communicative and Systemic Approach

Increasingly, total maximum daily load (TMDL) limits are being defined for agricultural watersheds. Reductions in non-point source pollution are often needed to meet TMDL limits, and improvements in management of annual crops appear insufficient to achieve the necessary reductions. Increased adoption of perennial crops and other changes in agricultural land use also appear necessary, but face major barriers. We outline a novel strategy that aims to create new economic opportunities for land-owners and other stakeholders and thereby to attract their voluntary participation in land-use change needed to meet TMDLs. Our strategy has two key elements. First, focused efforts are needed to create new economic enterprises that capitalize on the productive potential of multifunctional agriculture (MFA). MFA seeks to produce a wide range of goods and ecosystem services by well-designed deployment of annual and perennial crops across agricultural landscapes and watersheds; new revenue from MFA may substantially finance land-use change needed to meet TMDLs. Second, efforts to capitalize on MFA should use a novel methodology, the Communicative/Systemic Approach (C/SA). C/SA uses an integrative GIS-based spatial modeling framework for systematically assessing tradeoffs and synergies in design and evaluation of multifunctional agricultural landscapes, closely linked to deliberation and design processes by which multiple stakeholders can collaboratively create appropriate and acceptable MFA landscape designs. We anticipate that application of C/SA will strongly accelerate TMDL implementation, by aligning the interests of multiple stakeholders whose active support is needed to change agricultural land use and thereby meet TMDL goals.     

资源循环复杂物质流系统的Petri网建模方法研究

物质流分析是研究循环经济的重要方法,本文面向资源循环的流程制造企业,对不同复杂度的物质流系统进行了建模方法研究。首先对国内外在物质流领域的建模理论研究进行了综述,然后对物质流的特点和循环物质流的建模方法进行了分析,对基于投入产出表格的物质流分析方法、理论层面基于图论的物质流分析方法以及物质流分析软件进行了综述,最后重点探讨了Petri网建模与仿真工具在循环物质流分析中的建模方法,研究了不同类型Petri网在解决不同复杂度的物质流系统问题中的适用性,为物质流建模与仿真提供理论支撑。     

STEADY-STATE ANALYSIS OF INFILTRATION AND OVERLAND FLOW FOR SPATIALLY-VARIED HILLSLOPES1

ABSTRACT: An envelope of steady-state surface runoff response for a hilislope is established in terms of the probability distribution and spatial arrangement of individual point infiltration capacities and the rainfall intensity. Minimum overland flow is shown to occur when point infiltration capacities are ordered with the highest at the slope bottom, while maximum overland flow occurs when the highest point capacities are at the top of the slope. Equations for envelope curves are developed for both continuous distributions and discretely sampled data; examples for each case are given. Use of the analysis as a rainfall-runoff model is also discussed.