In harm’s way: Non-migration decisions of people at risk of slow-onset coastal hazards in Bangladesh

Non-migration is an adaptive strategy that has received little attention in environmental migration studies. We explore the leveraging factors of non-migration decisions of communities at risk in coastal Bangladesh, where exposure to both rapid- and slow-onset natural disasters is high. We apply the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to empirical data and assess how threat perception and coping appraisal influences migration decisions in farming communities suffering from salinization of cropland. This study consists of data collected through quantitative household surveys (n = 200) and semi-structured interviews from four villages in southwest coastal Bangladesh. Results indicate that most respondents are unwilling to migrate, despite better economic conditions and reduced environmental risk in other locations. Land ownership, social connectedness, and household economic strength are the strongest predictors of non-migration decisions. This study is the first to use the PMT to understand migration-related behaviour and the findings are relevant for policy planning in vulnerable regions where exposure to climate-related risks is high but populations are choosing to remain in place.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01552-8.     

The Growing Need for Sustainable Ecological Management of Marine Communities of the Persian Gulf

The Persian Gulf is a semi-enclosed marine system surrounded by eight countries, many of which are experiencing substantial development. It is also a major center for the oil industry. The increasing array of anthropogenic disturbances may have substantial negative impacts on marine ecosystems, but this has received little attention until recently. We review the available literature on the Gulfs marine environment and detail our recent experience in the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) to evaluate the role of anthropogenic disturbance in this marine ecosystem. Extensive coastal development may now be the single most important anthropogenic stressor. We offer suggestions for how to build awareness of environmental risks of current practices, enhance regional capacity for coastal management, and build cooperative management of this important, shared marine system. An excellent opportunity exists for one or more of the bordering countries to initiate a bold and effective, long-term, international collaboration in environmental management for the Gulf.     

Status and interconnections of selected environmental issues in the global coastal zones

This study focuses on assessing the state of population distribution, land cover distribution, biodiversity hotspots, and protected areas in global coastal zones. The coastal zone is defined as land within 100 km of the coastline. This study attempts to answer such questions as: how crowded are the coastal zones, what is the pattern of land cover distribution in these areas, how much of these areas are designated as protected areas, what is the state of the biodiversity hotspots, and what are the interconnections between people and coastal environment. This study uses globally consistent and comprehensive geospatial datasets based on remote sensing and other sources. The application of Geographic Information System (GIS) layering methods and consistent datasets has made it possible to identify and quantify selected coastal zones environmental issues and their interconnections. It is expected that such information provide a scientific basis for global coastal zones management and assist in policy formulations at the national and international levels.     

Adaptive coastal planning and the European Union's water framework directive: a Swedish perspective

The implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive and the achievement of its water quality objectives will to a large degree depend on scientific knowledge about the sources and status of water resources and the effects of mitigative measures. Coastal waters will be of central interest, since the management of whole river basins may be affected if coastal water status is not satisfactory. The Water Directive's general directions on what information the water authorities need and on suitable methods for obtaining such information leave it to the Member states to decide on more precise instructions. Improved legal mechanisms are needed to assist and guide the managers and scientists charged with implementing the directive and achieving its water quality objectives, particularly when faced with insufficient information, flawed knowledge, or changed circumstances. We assess progress in the current process of implementing the Water Directive in Sweden, focussing on coastal waters, and on general problems arising using this type of legal technique.     

Citizens of local jurisdictions enhance plant community preservation through ballot initiatives and voter-driven conservation efforts

Open space areas protected by local communities may augment larger scale preservation efforts and may offer overlooked benefits to biodiversity conservation provided they are in suitable ecological condition. We examine protected areas established by local communities through ballot initiatives, a form of direct democracy, in California, USA. We compare ecological conditions of wooded habitats on local ballot protected sites and on sites protected by a state-level conservation agency. Collectively, we found few differences in ecological conditions on each protected area type. Ballot sites had greater invasive understory cover and larger trees. Community dissimilarity patterns suggested ballot sites protect a complementary set of tree species to those on state lands. Overall, geographic characteristics influenced onsite conditions more than details of how sites were protected. Thus, community-driven conservation efforts contribute to protected area networks by augmenting protection of some species while providing at least some protection to others that might otherwise be missed.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01469-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Recommendations on statistics and benchmarks to assess photochemical model performance

Photochemical grid models are addressing an increasing variety of air quality related issues, yet procedures and metrics used to evaluate their performance remain inconsistent. This impacts the ability to place results in quantitative context relative to other models and applications, and to inform the user and affected community of model uncertainties and weaknesses. More consistent evaluations can serve to drive improvements in the modeling process as major weaknesses are identified and addressed. The large number of North American photochemical modeling studies published in the peer-reviewed literature over the past decade affords a rich data set from which to update previously established quantitative performance “benchmarks” for ozone and particulate matter (PM) concentrations. Here we exploit this information to develop new ozone and PM benchmarks (goals and criteria) for three well-established statistical metrics over spatial scales ranging from urban to regional and over temporal scales ranging from episodic to seasonal. We also recommend additional evaluation procedures, statistical metrics, and graphical methods for good practice. While we primarily address modeling and regulatory settings in the United States, these recommendations are relevant to any such applications of state-of-the-science photochemical models. Our primary objective is to promote quantitatively consistent evaluations across different applications, scales, models, model inputs, and configurations. The purpose of benchmarks is to understand how good or poor the results are relative to historical model applications of similar nature and to guide model performance improvements prior to using results for policy assessments. To that end, it also remains critical to evaluate all aspects of the model via diagnostic and dynamic methods. A second objective is to establish a means to assess model performance changes in the future. Statistical metrics and benchmarks need to be revisited periodically as model performance and the characteristics of air quality change in the future.

Implications: We address inconsistent procedures and metrics used to evaluate photochemical model performance, recommend a specific set of statistical metrics, and develop updated quantitative performance benchmarks for those metrics. We promote quantitatively consistent evaluations across different applications, scales, models, inputs, and configurations, thereby (1) improving the user’s ability to quantitatively place results in context and guide model improvements, and (2) better informing users, regulators, and stakeholders of model uncertainties and weaknesses prior to using results for policy assessments. While we primarily address U.S. modeling and regulatory settings, these recommendations are relevant to any such applications of state-of-the-science photochemical models.     

An Approach to Air Quality Management Standards

The Clean Air Amendments of 1970 impose a stringent set of uniform air quality standards and a rigid timetable for achieving them. Such an approach is open to serious question, since it fails to take account of variations in relevant local conditions. This paper sketches a proposal for a more realistic approach to air quality. It suggests a program of management standards that would reflect the needs and circumstances of particular regions. An institutional framework is outlined that would consider the technical, economic, and social constraints that determine how quickly and how much any area can improve its air quality. The framework would provide the needed flexibility, and would employ a feedback approach that avoids the need to resolve all uncertainties before any progress can be made. At the same time, it would impose a timetable and planning process to assure that all feasible progress in air quality improvement is realized nationwide.     

I-C-SEA Change: A participatory tool for rapid assessment of vulnerability of tropical coastal communities to climate change impacts

We present a synoptic, participatory vulnerability assessment tool to help identify the likely impacts of climate change and human activity in coastal areas and begin discussions among stakeholders on the coping and adaptation measures necessary to minimize these impacts. Vulnerability assessment tools are most needed in the tropical Indo-Pacific, where burgeoning populations and inequitable economic growth place even greater burdens on natural resources and support ecosystems. The Integrated Coastal Sensitivity, Exposure, and Adaptive Capacity for Climate Change (I-C-SEA Change) tool is built around a series of scoring rubrics to guide non-specialists in assigning scores to the sensitivity and adaptive capacity components of vulnerability, particularly for coral reef, seagrass, and mangrove habitats, along with fisheries and coastal integrity. These scores are then weighed against threat or exposure to climate-related impacts such as marine flooding and erosion. The tool provides opportunities for learning by engaging more stakeholders in participatory planning and group decision-making. It also allows for information to be collated and processed during a “town-hall” meeting, facilitating further discussion, data validation, and even interactive scenario building.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0652-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Assessing reference conditions according to the European Water Framework Directive using modelling and analysis of historical data: an example from Randers Fjord,Denmark

The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires the definition of reference conditions, i.e. pristine conditions, for all surface waters. As the present state of Danish coastal waters cannot be referred to as pristine, reference conditions have to be assessed by analysis of historical data or by the use of models. Using Randers Fjord as an example, the aim of this work was i) to demonstrate possibilities and restrictions of assessing reference conditions by historical data and by modelling; and ii) to demonstrate how ecological conditions have changed along with eutrophication. The ample historical data from Randers Fjord allowed us to assess reference conditions with respect to benthic macrophytes and benthic fauna. Models of varying complexity enabled us to assess reference conditions for nutrients, chlorophyll a, Secchi depth, and eelgrass. We conclude that models can be a useful supplement to assess reference conditions, though they are presently restricted by the lack of quantitative links between eutrophication and species composition.     

Monitoring of iodinated X-ray contrast media in surface water

A monitoring programme was carried out in order to determine iodinated X-ray contrast media (ICM) in the River Danube and to investigate the raw water quality for drinking water production at Langenau waterworks. The study revealed that the maximum concentrations of ICM (over 500 ng l(-1) for diatrizoic acid and iopamidol) were found in 2h-composite samples taken from the downstream of the Ulm/Neu-Ulm metropolitan area. By means of a concentration profile over one month the highest ICM concentrations were observed on weekdays. The extended data evaluation with principal component analysis shows that the upstream and downstream samples had different pattern of variations in ICM concentration and also demonstrates a clear change in ICM composition by the discharge of municipal wastewater. In addition to load profiles of ICM, time-dependent plots of principal component 1 exhibited peaks, indicating a short-term discharge of ICM between the two sampling sites. In conclusion, a point source for ICM contamination between the sampling sites in Ulm upstream and Leipheim downstream seems to be the reasonable explanation for peak ICM concentrations. Due to the observed high variations of ICM concentrations in river, the evaluation of natural waters by means of a single analysis is not representative.     

Efforts towards setting eutrophication assessment criteria for coastal marine ecosystems

Eutrophication of coastal marine environments is a widespread and transboundary problem necessitating consideration of measures to conserve and restore the marine environments that have been adversely affected. As of now, there exist no criteria set for eutrophication of coastal marine waters due to the difficulty to establish single national/international assessment criteria for eutrophication applicable to all coastal waters with different geographic and climatic conditions. However, there appear to be a number of joint and integrated studies among coastal countries to harmonise the outcomes of their scientific research and monitoring activities that might change the natural attributes of the environment. The common findings may then be utilised to develop guidelines on establishing eutrophication criteria together with application of policies and strategies. This study attempts to review the recent efforts of certain groups gathered together and of some countries to develop and improve approaches for assessment of eutrophication in coastal marine waters. Studies of OSPAR Commission, USEPA, and Australia and New Zealand related councils, will also be referred to.     

Development of Cleanup Standards at Superfund Sites: An Evaluation of Consistency

The Washington Department of Ecology (WDOE) recently developed a regulatory program for determining cleanup standards at hazardous waste sites. One of WDOE's first tasks in the development of a cleanup standards program was to evaluate how standards have been developed and implemented under Superfund.

The evaluation of cleanup standards revealed: (1) a great deal of variation among sites, both in the magnitude of the standards set for some contaminants and the basis on which they were set, and (2) that there is no consistent decision-making approach for determining how standards should be set. This lack of consistency and guidance has the potential to result in overly stringent or underprotective cleanup requirements and inefficient standard development.

Washington State has adopted an approach that allows for implementing uniform numerical cleanup standards at relatively straightforward sites and provides a process for establishing site-specific cleanup levels at more complex sites. This approach is expected to facilitate development of standards that offer appropriate human health and ecological protection while minimizing private and public sector site management and cleanup costs.     

Landscape Development During a Glacial Cycle: Modeling Ecosystems from the Past into the Future

Understanding how long-term abiotic and biotic processes are linked at a landscape level is of major interest for analyzing future impact on humans and the environment from present-day societal planning. This article uses results derived from multidisciplinary work at a coastal site in Sweden, with the aim of describing future landscape development. First, based on current and historical data, we identified climate change, shoreline displacement, and accumulation/erosion processes as the main drivers of landscape development. Second, site-specific information was combined with data from the Scandinavian region to build models that describe how the identified processes may affect the site development through time. Finally, the process models were combined to describe a whole interglacial period. With this article, we show how the landscape and ecosystem boundaries are affected by changing permafrost conditions, peat formation, sedimentation, human land use, and shoreline displacement.     

Blue carbon in human-dominated estuarine and shallow coastal systems

Estuarine and shallow coastal systems (ESCS) are recognized as not only significant organic carbon reservoirs but also emitters of CO₂ to the atmosphere through air–sea CO₂ gas exchange, thus posing a dilemma on ESCS’s role in climate change mitigation measures. However, some studies have shown that coastal waters take up atmospheric CO₂ (C_atm), although the magnitude and determinants remain unclear. We argue that the phenomenon of net uptake of C_atm by ESCS is not unusual under a given set of terrestrial inputs and geophysical conditions. We assessed the key properties of systems that show the net C_atm uptake and found that they are often characteristic of human-dominated systems: (1) input of high terrestrial nutrients, (2) input of treated wastewater in which labile carbon is highly removed, and (3) presence of hypoxia. We propose that human-dominated ESCS are worthy of investigation as a contributor to climate change mitigation.     

Experimental Characterization of Atmospheric Diffusion in Complex Terrain with Land-Sea Interactions

The body of information presented in this paper is directed to scientists working in atmospheric dispersion research and model development. Two years of field measurements in the coastal area of Bilbao in northern Spain show that the diffusion behavior in this complex terrain can be classified into several well defined patterns, which correspond to certain meteorological conditions. The approach taken has been the systematic use of SO₂ remote sensors (COSPEC) and ground level monitors in moving platforms which are used to follow and document the flow of the air mass. Results to date show that complex reentry cycles can occur and that synoptically different flows may be indistinguishable by wind sensors at ground level (affected by channeling), and yet result in totally different observed pollution levels by a fixed monitoring network (affected by topographical effects). These results are being used to parameterize the cause-effect relationships and guide the modeling efforts in this area of complex terrain.     

Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Cross-Country Analysis of Institutional Stakeholder Perceptions

Before climate change is considered in long-term coastal management, it is necessary to investigate how institutional stakeholders in coastal management conceptualize climate change, as their awareness will ultimately affect their actions. Using questionnaires in eight Baltic Sea riparian countries, this study examines environmental managers' awareness of climate change. Our results indicate that problems related to global warming are deemed secondary to short-term social and economic issues. Respondents agree that problems caused by global warming will become increasingly important, but pay little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies. Current environmental problems are expected to continue to be urgent in the future. We conclude that an apparent gap exists between decision making, public concerns, and scientific consensus, resulting in a situation in which the latest evidence rarely influences commonly held opinions.     

Coastal aquaculture development in eastern Africa and the Western Indian Ocean: prospects and problems for food security and local economies

This paper reviews the experience and status of coastal aquaculture of seaweeds, mollusks, fish and crustaceans in eastern Africa and the islands of the western Indian Ocean. In many respects, coastal aquaculture is still in its infancy in the region, and there is a pressing need to formulate development strategies aimed at improving the income and assuring the availability of affordable protein to coastal communities. This paper also draws from positive and negative experiences in other parts of the world. The requirements of feed and fry, and the conversion of mangroves are used to illustrate how some aquaculture activities constitute a net loss to global seafood production. The paper presents both general and specific sustainability guidelines based on the acknowledgement of aquaculture as an ecological process. It is concluded that without clear recognition of its dependence on natural ecosystems, the aquaculture industry is unlikely to develop to its full potential in the region.     

Modeling air/sea flux parameters in a coastal area: A comparative study of results from the TOGA COARE model and the NOAA Buoy model

Because estuaries and coastal regions are particularly susceptible to nutrient over-enrichment due to their close proximity to source-rich regions, a goal of the BRACE study was to improve estimates of nitrogen air/sea transfer rates in the Tampa Bay Estuary. Our objective was to critically evaluate two air/sea gas exchange models to determine their efficacy for use in a coastal region, with the ultimate goal of improving nitrogen exchange estimates in Tampa Bay. We used meteorological data and oceanographic parameters collected hourly at an instrumented tower located in Middle Tampa Bay, Florida. The data was used to determine the friction velocity and the turbulent flux of heat and moisture across the air/sea interface and then compared with modeled parameters at the same offshore site. On average both models underpredicted sensible heat flux and there was considerable scatter in the data during stable conditions, indicating that nitrogen gas exchange rates may also be underestimated. Model improvement, however, was observed with friction velocity comparisons. Model inter-comparisons of sensible heat flux and friction velocity suggest excellent agreement between the TOGA COARE and the NOAA Buoy models, but model estimated heat transfer coefficients and latent heat fluxes did not agree as well. Based on our analysis, we conclude that both models are suitable for use in a coastal environment to estimate nitrogen air/sea gas exchange, although the NOAA Buoy model requires fewer meteorological inputs. However, if the purpose is to conduct more sophisticated microscale modeling of air/sea interactions, we recommend the TOGA COARE model.     

Land-use and agriculture in Denmark around year 1900 and the quest for EU Water Framework Directive reference conditions in coastal waters

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) aims to protect the ecological status of coastal waters. To establish acceptable boundaries between good and moderate ecological status, the WFD calls for reference conditions practically undisturbed by human impact. For Denmark, the nitrogen (N) concentrations present around year 1900 have been suggested to represent reference conditions. As the N load of coastal waters relates closely to runoff from land, any reduction in load links to agricultural activity. We challenge the current use of historical N balances to establish WFD reference conditions and initiate an alternative approach based on parish-level land-use statistics collected 1896/1900 and N concentrations in root zone percolates from experiments with year 1900-relevant management. This approach may be more widely applicable for landscapes with detailed historic information on agricultural activity. Using this approach, we find an average N concentration in root zone percolates that is close to that of current agriculture. Thus, considering Danish coastal waters to be practically unaffected by human activity around year 1900 remains futile as 75% of the land area was subject to agricultural activity with a substantial potential for N loss to the environment. It appears unlikely that the ecological state of coastal waters around year 1900 may serve as WFD reference condition.     

Formation of oxidation by-products of the iodinated X-ray contrast medium iomeprol during ozonation

The present work describes the investigation of the formation of oxidation by-products of the iodinated X-ray contrast medium (ICM) iomeprol during ozonation in water treatment. Bench-scale investigations revealed that ICM can be partly oxidized during ozonation processes, whereas the ionic diatrizoic acid showed the lowest reactivity. Iomeprol, as a representative of ICM, was not fully mineralized during ozonation. Thus, unknown oxidation by-products were formed. Aqueous solutions of iomeprol were treated by ozonation in order to assess the formation of oxidation by-products. The by-products were characterized by different liquid chromatography methods including detection of single-stage mass spectra, product ion mass spectra, and induced in-source fragmentation for analysis of iodine containing oxidation by-products. Aldehyde and carbonyl containing compounds were proposed to be among the stable by-products. A derivatization step confirms that the aldehyde and carbonyl moieties are major functional groups in oxidation by-products of iomeprol. Furthermore, oxidation by-products of iomeprol were detected at the outlet of an ozone reactor at a full-scale waterworks. However, the toxicological relevance of the by-products is a major future research tasks.