A comparison of nonlinear regression and neural network models for ground-level ozone forecasting

A hybrid nonlinear regression (NLR) model and a neural network (NN) model, each designed to forecast next-day maximum 1-hr average ground-level O3 concentrations in Louisville, KY, were compared for two O3 seasons--1998 and 1999. The model predictions were compared for the forecast mode, using forecasted meteorological data as input, and for the hindcast mode, using observed meteorological data as input. The two models performed nearly the same in the forecast mode. For the two seasons combined, the mean absolute forecast error was 12.5 ppb for the NLR model and 12.3 ppb for the NN model. The detection rate of 120 ppb threshold exceedances was 42% for each model in the forecast mode. In the hindcast mode, the NLR model performed marginally better than the NN model. The mean absolute hindcast error was 11.1 ppb for the NLR model and 12.9 ppb for the NN model. The hindcast detection rate was 92% for the NLR model and 75% for the NN model.     

生物滞留池改善城市雨水径流水质的研究进展

如何有效控制城市雨水径流所带来的面源污染已成为城市管理工作所面临的重要难题之一.作为城市暴雨最佳管理措施(BMPs)中的技术之一,生物滞留池可有效控制城市面源污染.总结了生物滞留池在改善城市雨水径流水质方面的研究进展,简要分析了生物滞留池去除污染物的机制.研究结果表明,生物滞留池对雨水径流中的总悬浮颗粒物(TSS)、重...     

Application of artificial neural network for prediction of Pb(II) adsorption characteristics

The adsorption of Pb(II) onto the surface of microwave-assisted activated carbon was studied through a two-layer feedforward neural network. The activated carbon was developed by microwave activation of Acacia auriculiformis scrap wood char. The prepared adsorbent was characterized by using Brunauer–Emmett–Teller (BET) surface area analyzer, scanning electron microscope (SEM), and X-ray difractometer. In the present study, the input variables for the proposed network were solution pH, contact time, initial adsorbate concentration, adsorbent dose and temperature, whereas the output variable was the percent Pb(II) removal. The network had been trained by using different algorithms and based on the lowest mean squared error (MSE) value and validation error, resilient backpropagation algorithm with 12 neurons in the hidden layer was selected for the present investigation. The tan sigmoid and purelin transfer function were used in the hidden and the output layers of the proposed network, respectively. The model predicted and experimental values of the percent Pb(II) removal were also compared and both the values were found to be in reasonable agreement with each other. The performance of the developed network was further improved by normalizing the experimental data set and it was found that after normalization, the MSE and validation error were reduced significantly. The sensitivity analysis was also performed to determine the most significant input parameter.     

Neural network and multiple regression models for PM10 prediction in Athens: a comparative assessment

Particulate atmospheric pollution in urban areas is considered to have significant impact on human health. Therefore, the ability to make accurate predictions of particulate ambient concentrations is important to improve public awareness and air quality management. This study examines the possibility of using neural network methods as tools for daily average particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <10 microm (PM10) concentration forecasting, providing an alternative to statistical models widely used up to this day. Based on a data inventory, in a fixed central site in Athens, Greece, ranging over a two-year period, and using mainly meteorological variables as inputs, neural network models and multiple linear regression models were developed and evaluated. Comparison statistics used indicate that the neural network approach has an edge over regression models, expressed both in terms of prediction error (root mean square error values lower by 8.2-9.4%) and of episodic prediction ability (false alarm rate values lower by 7-13%). The results demonstrate that artificial neural networks (ANNs), if properly trained and formed, can provide adequate solutions to particulate pollution prognostic demands.     

Evaluation of land-use regression models used to predict air quality concentrations in an urban area

Cohort studies designed to estimate human health effects of exposures to urban pollutants require accurate determination of ambient concentrations in order to minimize exposure misclassification errors. However, it is often difficult to collect concentration information at each study subject location. In the absence of complete subject-specific measurements, land-use regression (LUR) models have frequently been used for estimating individual levels of exposures to ambient air pollution. The LUR models, however, have several limitations mainly dealing with extensive monitoring data needs and challenges involved in their broader applicability to other locations. In contrast, air quality models can provide high-resolution source–concentration linkages for multiple pollutants, but require detailed emissions and meteorological information. In this study, first we predicted air quality concentrations of PM_2.5, NO_x, and benzene in New Haven, CT using hybrid modeling techniques based on CMAQ and AERMOD model results. Next, we used these values as pseudo-observations to develop and evaluate the different LUR models built using alternative numbers of (training) sites (ranging from 25 to 285 locations out of the total 318 receptors). We then evaluated the fitted LUR models using various approaches, including: 1) internal “Leave-One-Out-Cross-Validation” (LOOCV) procedure within the “training” sites selected; and 2) “Hold-Out” evaluation procedure, where we set aside 33–293 tests sites as independent datasets for external model evaluation. LUR models appeared to perform well in the training datasets. However, when these LUR models were tested against independent hold out (test) datasets, their performance diminished considerably. Our results confirm the challenges facing the LUR community in attempting to fit empirical response surfaces to spatially- and temporally-varying pollution levels using LUR techniques that are site dependent. These results also illustrate the potential benefits of enhancing basic LUR models by utilizing air quality modeling tools or concepts in order to improve their reliability or transferability.     

Optimization of artificial neural network models through genetic algorithms for surface ozone concentration forecasting

Introduction

This study proposes three methodologies to define artificial neural network models through genetic algorithms (GAs) to predict the next-day hourly average surface ozone (O₃) concentrations. GAs were applied to define the activation function in hidden layer and the number of hidden neurons.

Methods

Two of the methodologies define threshold models, which assume that the behaviour of the dependent variable (O₃ concentrations) changes when it enters in a different regime (two and four regimes were considered in this study). The change from one regime to another depends on a specific value (threshold value) of an explanatory variable (threshold variable), which is also defined by GAs. The predictor variables were the hourly average concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide, nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and O₃ (recorded in the previous day at an urban site with traffic influence) and also meteorological data (hourly averages of temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed). The study was performed for the period from May to August 2004.

Results and discussion

Several models were achieved and only the best model of each methodology was analysed. In threshold models, the variables selected by GAs to define the O₃ regimes were temperature, CO and NO₂ concentrations, due to their importance in O₃ chemistry in an urban atmosphere.

Conclusion

In the prediction of O₃ concentrations, the threshold model that considers two regimes was the one that fitted the data most efficiently.     

A neural network model forecasting for prediction of daily maximum ozone concentration in an industrialized urban area

Prediction of ambient ozone concentrations in urban areas would allow evaluation of such factors as compliance and noncompliance with EPA requirements. Though ozone prediction models exist, there is still a need for more accurate models. Development of these models is difficult because the meteorological variables and photochemical reactions involved in ozone formation are complex. In this study, we developed a neural network model for forecasting daily maximum ozone levels. We then compared the neural network's performance with those of two traditional statistical models, regression, and Box-Jenkins ARIMA. The neural network model for forecasting daily maximum ozone levels is different from the two statistical models because it employs a pattern recognition approach. Such an approach does not require specification of the structural form of the model. The results show that the neural network model is superior to the regression and Box-Jenkins ARIMA models we tested.     

The use of artificial neural network (ANN) for the prediction and simulation of oil degradation in wastewater by AOP

The application of advanced oxidation process (AOP) in the treatment of wastewater contaminated with oil was investigated in this study. The AOP investigated is the homogeneous photo-Fenton (UV/H₂O₂/Fe⁺²) process. The reaction is influenced by the input concentration of hydrogen peroxide H₂O₂, amount of the iron catalyst Fe⁺², pH, temperature, irradiation time, and concentration of oil in the wastewater. The removal efficiency for the used system at the optimal operational parameters (H₂O₂?=?400 mg/L, Fe⁺²?=?40 mg/L, pH?=?3, irradiation time?=?150 min, and temperature?=?30 °C) for 1,000 mg/L oil load was found to be 72 %. The study examined the implementation of artificial neural network (ANN) for the prediction and simulation of oil degradation in aqueous solution by photo-Fenton process. The multilayered feed-forward networks were trained by using a backpropagation algorithm; a three-layer network with 22 neurons in the hidden layer gave optimal results. The results show that the ANN model can predict the experimental results with high correlation coefficient (R ²?=?0.9949). The sensitivity analysis showed that all studied variables (H₂O₂, Fe⁺², pH, irradiation time, temperature, and oil concentration) have strong effect on the oil degradation. The pH was found to be the most influential parameter with relative importance of 20.6 %.     

Model for forecasting expressway fine particulate matter and carbon monoxide concentration: application of regression and neural network models

The Borman Expressway is a heavily traveled 16-mi segment of the Interstate 80/94 freeway through Northwestern Indiana. The Lake and Porter counties through which this expressway passes are designated as particulate matter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) and ozone 8-hr standard nonattainment areas. The Purdue University air quality group has been collecting PM2.5, carbon monoxide (CO), wind speed, wind direction, pressure, and temperature data since September 1999. In this work, regression and neural network models were developed for forecasting hourly PM2.5 and CO concentrations. Time series of PM2.5 and CO concentrations, traffic data, and meteorological parameters were used for developing the neural network and regression models. The models were compared using a number of statistical quality indicators. Both models had reasonable accuracy in predicting hourly PM2.5 concentration with coefficient of determination -0.80, root mean square error (RMSE) <4 microg/m3, and index of agreement (IA) > 0.90. For CO prediction, both models showed moderate forecasting performance with a coefficient of determination -0.55, RMSE < 0.50 ppm, and IA -0.85. These models are computationally less cumbersome and require less number of predictors as compared with the deterministic models. The availability of real time PM2.5 and CO forecasts will help highway managers to identify air pollution episodic events beforehand and to determine mitigation strategies.     

Modeling biodegradation and kinetics of glyphosate by artificial neural network

An artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to simulate the biodegradation of herbicide glyphosate [2-(Phosphonomethylamino) acetic acid] in a solution with varying parameters pH, inoculum size and initial glyphosate concentration. The predictive ability of ANN model was also compared with Monod model. The result showed that ANN model was able to accurately predict the experimental results. A low ratio of self-inhibition and half saturation constants of Haldane equations (< 8) exhibited the inhibitory effect of glyphosate on bacteria growth. The value of K(i)/K(s) increased when the mixed inoculum size was increased from 10(4) to 10(6) bacteria/mL. It was found that the percentage of glyphosate degradation reached a maximum value of 99% at an optimum pH 6-7 while for pH values higher than 9 or lower than 4, no degradation was observed.     

Comparison of land-use regression models between Great Britain and the Netherlands

Land-use regression models have increasingly been applied for air pollution mapping at typically the city level. Though models generally predict spatial variability well, the structure of models differs widely between studies. The observed differences in the models may be due to artefacts of data and methodology or underlying differences in source or dispersion characteristics. If the former, more standardised methods using common data sets could be beneficial. We compared land-use regression models for NO₂ and PM_10, developed with a consistent protocol in Great Britain (GB) and the Netherlands (NL).Models were constructed on the basis of 2001 annual mean concentrations from the national air quality networks. Predictor variables used for modelling related to traffic, population, land use and topography. Four sets of models were developed for each country. First, predictor variables derived from data sets common to both countries were used in a pooled analysis, including an indicator for country and interaction terms between country and the identified predictor variables. Second, the common data sets were used to develop individual baseline models for each country. Third, the country-specific baseline models were applied after calibration in the other country to explore transferability. The fourth model was developed using the best possible predictor variables for each country.A common model for GB and NL explained NO₂ concentrations well (adjusted R² 0.64), with no significant differences in intercept and slopes between the two countries. The country-specific model developed on common variables for NL but not GB improved the prediction.The performance of models based upon common data was only slightly worse than models optimised with local data. Models transferred to the other country performed substantially worse than the country-specific models. In conclusion, care is needed both in transferring models across different study areas, and in developing large inter-regional LUR models.     

Systematic development of an artificial neural network model for real-time prediction of ground-level ozone in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Ground-level ozone is a secondary pollutant that has recently gained notoriety for its detrimental effects on human and vegetation health. In this paper, a systematic approach is applied to develop artificial neural network (ANN) models for ground-level ozone (O3) prediction in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, using ambient monitoring data for input. The intent of these models is to provide regulatory agencies with a tool for addressing data gaps in ambient monitoring information and predicting O3 events. The models are used to determine the meteorological conditions and precursors that most affect O3 concentrations. O3 time-series effects and the efficacy of the systematic approach are also assessed. The developed models showed good predictive success, with coefficient of multiple determination values ranging from 0.75 to 0.94 for forecasts up to 2 hr in advance. The inputs most important for O3 prediction were temperature and concentrations of nitric oxide, total hydrocarbons, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide.     

Bioretention column studies of phosphorus removal from urban stormwater runoff.

This study investigated the effectiveness of bioretention as a stormwater management practice using repetitive bioretention columns for phosphorus removal. Bioretention media, with a higher short-term phosphorus sorption capacity, retained more phosphorus from infiltrating runoff after 3 mg/L phosphorus loading. A surface mulch layer prevented clogging after repetitive total suspended solids input. Evidence suggests that long-term phosphorus reactions will regenerate active short-term phosphorus adsorption sites. A high hydraulic conductivity media overlaying one with low hydraulic conductivity resulted in a higher runoff infiltration rate, from 0.51 to 0.16 cm/min at a fixed 15-cm head, and was more efficient in phosphorus removal (85% mass removal) than a profile with low conductivity media over high (63% mass removal). Media extractions suggest that most of the retained phosphorus in the media layers is available for vegetative uptake and that environmental risk thresholds were not exceeded.     

城市道路暴雨径流水质特性及控制对策

由于暴雨径流冲刷引起的城市面源污染已成为受纳水体污染的主要来源。在综合国内外相关文献的基础上,分析了城市道路暴雨径流中污染物的赋存形态,总结了不同环境背景下城市道路暴雨径流污染物的浓度水平,阐述了城市道路暴雨径流水质的影响因素,论述了城市道路暴雨径流污染的控制对策,指出合理确定初期暴雨径流控制量、科学选取/设计控制技术、将暴雨径流控制措施与城市规划有机结合构建调控网络是城市道路暴雨径流污染控制的可行途径。     

人工神经网络在沿海区域环境复杂系统预测中的应用

针对复杂系统的非线性特征,分析了应用人工神经网络技术实现可持续发展复杂系统预测的可能性,并以上海市和崇明县为例建立沿海区域预测模型,取得了较好的预测结果,为可持续发展复杂系统的预测研究探索了一种新的可能方法。     

Application of artificial neural networks to modeling and prediction of ambient ozone concentrations

The deterministic modeling of ambient O3 concentrations is difficult because of the complexity of the atmospheric system in terms of the number of chemical species; the availability of accurate, time-resolved emissions data; and the required rate constants. However, other complex systems have been successfully approximated using artificial neural networks (ANNs). In this paper, ANNs are used to model and predict ambient O3 concentrations based on a limited number of measured hydrocarbon species, NOx compounds, temperature, and radiant energy. In order to examine the utility of these approaches, data from the Coastal Oxidant Assessment for Southeast Texas (COAST) program in Houston, TX, have been used. In this study, 53 hydrocarbon compounds, along with O3, nitrogen oxides, and meteorological data were continuously measured during summer 1993. Steady-state ANN models were developed to examine the ability of these models to predict current O3 concentrations from measured VOC and NOx concentrations. To predict the future concentrations of O3, dynamic models were also explored and were used for extraction of chemical information such as reactivity estimations for the VOC species. The steady-state model produced an approximation of O3 data and demonstrated the functional relationship between O3 and VOC-NOx concentrations. The dynamic models were able to the adequately predict the O3 concentration and behavior of VOC-NOx-O3 system a number of hourly intervals into the future. For 3 hr into the future, O3 concentration could be predicted with a root-mean squared error (RMSE) of 8.21 ppb. Extending the models further in time led to an RMSE of 11.46 ppb for 5-hr-ahead values. This prediction capability could be useful in determining when control actions are needed to maintain measured concentrations within acceptable value ranges.     

Short-term prediction of means of artificial neural urban NO2 pollution by networks

A neural network model for the short-term prediction of concentrations of urban pollutants was developed and applied to the Turin (Northern Italy) air quality network. In particular, the study was focused on NO₂ concentrations measured at five stations; t + 3 and t + 24 hour NO₂ concentration forecasting based on hourly meteorological and concentration data gave good agreement with observed concentrations. This is particularly true for the mean concentration values and concentration distribution. The time of occurrence of peak values was correctly forecast but the amounts were generally underestimated. To reduce this underestimation, an empirical step function was applied in the t + 24 case. This allowed an accurate estimate to be obtained of the few cases in which 50% of the air quality monitoring stations exceeded the attention level (200 μg m^-3) during the following day for at least one hour.     

Neuro-fuzzy and neural network systems for air quality control

In order to define efficient air quality plans, Regional Authorities need suitable tools to evaluate both the impact of emission reduction strategies on pollution indexes and the costs of such emission reductions. The air quality control can be formalized as a two-objective nonlinear mathematical problem, integrating source–receptor models and the estimate of emission reduction costs. Both aspects present several complex elements. In particular the source–receptor models cannot be implemented through deterministic modelling systems, that would bring to a computationally unfeasible mathematical problem. In this paper we suggest to identify source–receptor statistical models (neural network and neuro-fuzzy) processing the simulations of a deterministic multi-phase modelling system (GAMES). The methodology has been applied to ozone and PM10 concentrations in Northern Italy. The results show that, despite a large advantage in terms of computational costs, the selected source–receptor models are able to accurately reproduce the simulation of the 3D modelling system.     

An evaluation of the urban stormwater pollutant removal efficiency of catch basin inserts.

In a storm sewer system, the catch basin is the interface between surface runoff and the sewer. Responding to the need to improve the quality of stormwater from urban areas and transportation facilities, and spurred by Phase I and II Stormwater Rules from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, several companies market catch basin inserts as best management practices for urban water quality management. However, little data have been collected under controlled tests that indicate the pollutant removal efficiency of these inserts when the inflow is near what can be expected to occur in the field. A stormwater simulator was constructed to test inserts under controlled and replicable conditions. The inserts were tested for removal efficiency of total suspended solids (TSS) and total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) at an inflow rate of 757 to 814 L/min, with influent pollutant concentrations of 225 mg/L TSS and 30 mg/L TPH. These conditions are similar to stormwater runoff from small commercial sites in the southeastern United States. Results from the tests indicate that at the test flowrate and pollutant concentration, average TSS removal efficiencies ranged from 11 to 42% and, for TPH, the removal efficiency ranged from 10 to 19%.     

Water quality performance of a batch-type stormwater detention basin.

The objective of this research was to modify an extended detention basin to provide batch treatment of stormwater runoff. An automated valve/controller was developed and placed on the outlet of a detention basin in Austin, Texas, which allowed the water quality volume to be retained in the basin for a preset length of time. The influent and effluent of the modified basin were monitored for total suspended solids (TSS), nutrients, chemical oxygen demand (COD), and total and dissolved metals. Statistically significant removal of total metals, COD, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and TSS was observed, with a discharge event mean TSS concentration of 7 mg/L and a TSS removal efficiency of 91%. The modified basin has substantially better pollutant removal than conventional extended detention basins and is comparable with that of Austin sand filters, which are a common structural stormwater treatment system in the Austin area. The valve also can be used to isolate hazardous material spills.