Modeling the Impacts of Two Bark Beetle Species Under a Warming Climate in the Southwestern USA: Ecological and Economic Consequences

Predicted climate warming is expected to have profound effects on bark beetle population dynamics in the southwestern United States. Temperature-mediated effects may include increases in developmental rates, generations per year, and changes in habitat suitability. As a result, the impacts of Dendroctonus frontalis and Dendroctonus mexicanus on forest resources are likely subject to amplification. To assess the implications of such change, we evaluated the generations per year of these species under three climate scenarios using a degree-day development model. We also assessed economic impacts of increased beetle outbreaks in terms of the costs of application of preventative silvicultural treatments and potential economic revenues forgone. Across the southwestern USA, the potential number of beetle generations per year ranged from 1–3+ under historical climate, an increase of 2–4+ under the minimal warming scenario and 3–5+ under the greatest warming scenario. Economic benefits of applying basal area reduction treatments to reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreaks ranged from 7.75/ha (NM) to7.75/ha (NM) to 95.69/ha (AZ) under historical conditions, and 47.96/ha (NM) to47.96/ha (NM) to 174.58/ha (AZ) under simulated severe drought conditions. Basal area reduction treatments that reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreak result in higher net present values than no action scenarios. Coupled with other deleterious consequences associated with beetle outbreaks, such as increased wildfires, the results suggest that forest thinning treatments play a useful role in a period of climate warming.     

创新转型发展与经济社会生态性转型

目前的环境保护及节能减排措施只能减缓对环境破坏的规模、程度及速度,而不能从根本上遏制破坏,实现可持续发展。只有按照生态系统的自身特征恢复生态,实现科技与经济社会的生态性转型,才能从根本上消解危机,实现经济社会科学发展。     

Water Stress Projections for the Northeastern and Midwestern United States in 2060: Anthropogenic and Ecological Consequences

Future climate and land‐use changes and growing human populations may reduce the abundance of water resources relative to anthropogenic and ecological needs in the Northeast and Midwest (U.S.). We used output from WaSSI, a water accounting model, to assess potential changes between 2010 and 2060 in (1) anthropogenic water stress for watersheds throughout the Northeast and Midwest and (2) native fish species richness (i.e., number of species) for the Upper Mississippi water resource region (UMWRR). Six alternative scenarios of climate change, land‐use change, and human population growth indicated future water supplies will, on average across the region, be adequate to meet anthropogenic demands. Nevertheless, the number of individual watersheds experiencing severe stress (demand > supplies) was projected to increase for most scenarios, and some watersheds were projected to experience severe stress under multiple scenarios. Similarly, we projected declines in fish species richness for UMWRR watersheds and found the number of watersheds with projected declines and the average magnitude of declines varied across scenarios. All watersheds in the UMWRR were projected to experience declines in richness for at least two future scenarios. Many watersheds projected to experience declines in fish species richness were not projected to experience severe anthropogenic water stress, emphasizing the need for multidimensional impact assessments of changing water resources.     

海洋生态损害补偿及其相关概念辨析

以下概念涉及对海洋的生态损害由弱到强依次为:海洋生态环境保护、海洋资源有偿使用、海洋生态环境损害(负外部性)、海洋生态环境损害(侵害)。海洋生态损害补偿是广义概念,包括针对"海洋资源有偿使用"的"有偿"、针对"海洋生态环境损害(负外部性)"的"补偿"和针对"海洋生态环境损害(侵害)"的"赔偿"。海洋生态损害补偿是海洋生态补偿的重要组成部分,海洋生态补偿是生态补偿的重要组成部分,理论上需要进行经济学、管理学、法学等多学科的交叉融合研究,实践上需要将它置于生态补偿的总体框架中进行制度政策设计。     

长江经济带城市生态环境协同发展能力评价

生态优先、绿色发展是长江经济带国家战略的核心要求,城市生态协同发展是落实"共抓大保护、不搞大开发"的关键。城市生态协同发展主要体现为特定地方对全流域生态环境质量的贡献度,体现了特定地方对流域性生态公共物品和服务的供给能力。长江经济带110个地级以上城市生态环境协同发展能力差异悬殊。协同发展水平较高的城市主要集中在经济发展水平较高、能耗和污染排放较少的城市以及经济发展水平不高、工业污染较少的城市。而生态协同发展能力较差的城市多集中在那些能耗和污染严重的地区。这些城市形成了三大一级城市群和八大二级城市子群的空间分异格局。该格局表明,区域经济发展水平与生态协同发展能力之间在现阶段并非存在着严格的对应关系。长江经济带生态协同发展需要切实体现一体化治理(流域性)、中央集中性治理(国家战略性)和经济、社会、生态、环境统筹性治理(复合地域生态系统)三大内在需求。从长江流域整个生态系统恢复与地方生态环境保护的分工协作入手,处理好中央与地方政府在流域生态环境治理中的责权利关系,实现上下游之间、中央与地方政府之间在生态环境治理实践中的战略协同。     

丝绸之路经济带资源环境成本及生态负荷强度的时空演变分析

为了科学地评价丝绸之路经济带生态系统对经济与社会发展的服务支撑能力,本研究引入生态系统服务理论,构建资源环境成本及绿色GDP核算、生态负荷强度模型,计算出丝绸之路经济带辐射国家2005—2012年的资源环境成本、生态负荷强度,并在此基础上利用探索性空间数据分析方法,对2005年以来丝绸之路经济带的生态负荷强度随时间演变的趋势及其空间分布特征进行分析和探讨(数据获取难易程度,仅分析了部分带内国家)。结果表明:在研究时段内,带内国家或地区的资源环境成本由2005年的675.02×108元攀升至1 178.51×108元(2005年可比价),生态负荷强度由0.3369下降到0.2307;丝绸之路经济带生态负荷强度呈现出由欧洲经济圈向中国西北地区集聚的空间分布特征,其中中亚及中国西北地区为高-高集聚区、欧洲经济圈为低-低集聚区;这种西、东集聚现象的显著性在研究时段内逐渐减弱,且区域生态效益或经济效益持续向周边溢出。     

区域社会经济发展与生态环境耦合关系研究模型的比较分析

社会经济发展与环境资源相协调是可持续发展的重要途径,判断当前区域社会经济发展与生态环境间的耦合关系是建立有效协调机制的关键。本文从发展、机理方法和应用实例等方面系统介绍了目前在社会经济发展与生态环境之间耦合关系研究中主要的3类模型:计量经济学模型(环境库兹涅茨曲线)、耦合度定量判断模型(包括灰色关联度分析和数理模型)和系统动力学模型。通过3类模型机理和应用情况的对照分析,总结各自优劣势,并认为具有多情景分析和多方案执行评估能力的神经网络模型将成为未来发展趋势。     

互助县西山浅山水土保持生态经济体系建设设想

文章以青海省互助县西山乡为例,就建立浅山水土保持生态经济体系问题进行初步研究,提出了有关对策措施。说明建设浅山水土保持生态经济体系应当遵照积极保护治理与合理开发利用相结合的原则,形成有序的全方位多功能多效益的综合立体防护网络以达到维护最佳生态环境的目的。     

Long Profile Evolution of a Mountain Stream in Relation to Gravel Load Management: Example of the Middle Giffre River (French Alps)

6 m³) following extensive gravel extraction from the channel, this evolution appears to be reversed today, showing that this river is capable of rehabilitating itself. The watershed supplies the river with 50,000 m³/yr of material and part of this load (30,000 m³/yr) is extracted. Although it is theoretically possible to reverse this phenomenon, it is unacceptable for the local economy as man-made installations unadapted to flooding were developed along the river during the period of incision. Today, the development policy is in conflict with the maintenance and the preservation of natural sediment transport and deposition.     

用灰色关联度模型评价湖泊富营养化

应用灰色关联度模型对大理州主要的８ 个湖泊水库进行富营养化评价。结果表明,８ 个湖泊水库都处于中营养级、评价结果与实际情况较为吻合。文章还提出了富营养化防治对策,为湖泊保护提供了科学依据。     

Embarking on the Second Green Revolution for Sustainable Agriculture in India: A Judicious Mix of Traditional Wisdom and Modern Knowledge in Ecological Farming

The Green Revolution in India which was heralded in the 1960‘s was a mixed blessing. Ambitious use of agro-chemicals boosted food production but also destroyed the agricultural ecosystem. Of late Indian farmers and agricultural scientists have realized this and are anxious to find alternatives – perhaps a non-chemical agriculture – and have even revived their age-old traditional techniques of natural farming. Scientists are working to find economically cheaper and ecologically safer alternatives to agro-chemicals. Blue-Green Algae Biofertilizers, Earthworm Vermicomposts (Vermiculture), biological control of pests and herbal biopesticides are showing promise. Saline agriculture and sewage farming are also being promoted in India to augment food production in the face of water scarcity. There is a move to search for alternative foods, which are more nutritious, cheaper and have shorter harvest cycles. Farm and food policy in India has to change its outlook before there can be a second green revolution. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Ecological risk and accessibility analysis to assess the impact of roads under Habitats Directive

We propose a method for the appropriate assessment of adverse effects of roads in compliance with the European Union Habitats Directive. The method incorporates an analysis of ecological risk of edge effects by the proposed roads with the related increase in accessibility. The method was tested on 30 km of planned forest roads inside an 8,000-ha reserve included in two Natura 2000 sites. As a result, the cumulative effect of 19 road segments was judged as not significantly affecting the integrity of the sites, although they made accessible an extra 314 ha. On the basis of the accessibility calculation, 20 ha of land were set aside from forest exploitation as a mandatory mitigation measure. The method objectively determined the cumulative adverse effects, enabled comparison of plan revisions and alternatives and proved to measure direct and indirect significant effects with a realistic effort in terms of field survey and geographic information system processing.     

基于RS/GIS的天山北坡经济带生态环境质量综合评价研究

本文采用综合指数评价法，以RS／GIS技术解译的土地利用／土地覆盖数据为信息源，对天山北坡经济带生态环境质量进行评价、排序及分级。结果得出：乌鲁木齐市、乌苏市、呼图壁县生态环境质量良好，沙湾县、石河子市、奎屯市、玛纳斯县生态环境质量一般，米泉市、阜康市、克拉玛依市、昌吉市生态环境质量较差；良好、一般及差的县市区域面积分别占研究区面积的39．8％、27．89％和32．29％。这种生态环境质量分异特征主要是由自然环境条件、人类经济活动、土地利用方式决定的。     

国家北方重要生态安全屏障保护与建设

把内蒙古建成我国北方重要生态安全屏障,是立足全国发展大局确立的战略定位。本文在阐述国家北方重要生态安全屏障概念和内涵的基础上,综述了近年来内蒙古在国家北方重要生态安全屏障保护和建设中取得的进展及效果,对生态服务功能基础进行全面分析总结,剖析了目前和未来生态安全屏障建设中面临的天然生态脆弱、部分生态系统退化、资源环境承载压力大等问题,最后从发展方向、关键技术、政策体系、工程布局和监管能力五个角度提出了内蒙古生态保护与建设的对策建议,为筑牢我国北方重要生态安全屏障提供思路。     

黄河三角洲开发建设对生态环境的影响与对策

本文简要叙述了黄河三角洲的成因及自然生态环境概况,详细论述了黄河三角洲开发建设对生态环境带来的问题及采取的有效措施,对三角洲的开发建设和生态环境的保护有着一定的指导意义。     

Hydrologic Connectivity and the Contribution of Stream Headwaters to Ecological Integrity at Regional Scales1

Abstract: Cumulatively, headwater streams contribute to maintaining hydrologic connectivity and ecosystem integrity at regional scales. Hydrologic connectivity is the water‐mediated transport of matter, energy and organisms within or between elements of the hydrologic cycle. Headwater streams compose over two‐thirds of total stream length in a typical river drainage and directly connect the upland and riparian landscape to the rest of the stream ecosystem. Altering headwater streams, e.g., by channelization, diversion through pipes, impoundment and burial, modifies fluxes between uplands and downstream river segments and eliminates distinctive habitats. The large‐scale ecological effects of altering headwaters are amplified by land uses that alter runoff and nutrient loads to streams, and by widespread dam construction on larger rivers (which frequently leaves free‐flowing upstream portions of river systems essential to sustaining aquatic biodiversity). We discuss three examples of large‐scale consequences of cumulative headwater alteration. Downstream eutrophication and coastal hypoxia result, in part, from agricultural practices that alter headwaters and wetlands while increasing nutrient runoff. Extensive headwater alteration is also expected to lower secondary productivity of river systems by reducing stream‐system length and trophic subsidies to downstream river segments, affecting aquatic communities and terrestrial wildlife that utilize aquatic resources. Reduced viability of freshwater biota may occur with cumulative headwater alteration, including for species that occupy a range of stream sizes but for which headwater streams diversify the network of interconnected populations or enhance survival for particular life stages. Developing a more predictive understanding of ecological patterns that may emerge on regional scales as a result of headwater alterations will require studies focused on components and pathways that connect headwaters to river, coastal and terrestrial ecosystems. Linkages between headwaters and downstream ecosystems cannot be discounted when addressing large‐scale issues such as hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico and global losses of biodiversity.     

根据土地生态特征和经济效益确定种植类型

根据梧州市郊县农村土地生态特征,利用逐步判别分析方法给出以各自然村为基础的区位点土地利用方法;并根据土地利用方向,结合果树经济效益和各种信息,应用规划理论给出本地区果树在满足诸条件时以种植46万亩橙、2万亩香蕉最为适宜。     

中国长城沿线生态脆弱性分析及生态保护对策

中国长城沿线是半湿润—半干旱和半干旱—干旱气候的过渡地带,也是农牧业的交错地带,生态极其脆弱,生态压力又大,容易发生生态破坏,而且很难恢复。为了保护中国长城沿线的生态环境,必须调整产业结构,合理布局,采用先进技术,加大投入,提高生态意识,加强法制建设。     

生态文旅类企业会计核算的创新研究——基于生态产品价值实现视角

生态产品价值实现,是体现“绿水青山就是金山银山”理念的重要路径。近年来,我国开展了各类生态产品价值的核算实践,提供了自然生态估值的新视角。通过核算生态产品价值,能够客观体现生态系统提供生态产品的潜力以及生态产品的社会价值。本文以经营自然资源的生态文旅类企业作为生态产品会计核算的主体,结合会计学基础理论和生态价值常用的评估方法,针对生态文旅类企业构建了企业生态产品会计核算的基本框架,为企业的生态产品运营提供了全新的管理工具。     

生态红线管控绩效考核技术方案及制度保障研究

基于生态红线管控绩效考核必要性的分析,在尽可能规避目前我国环境绩效考核诸多弊端的前提下,制定了生态红线绩效考核框架及技术方案：从绩效考核主体、客体、考核内容与考核方法等方面完成了生态红线绩效考核框架的构建,确定了考核指标、计量模型和考核标准,并详细探讨了考核程序、考核成果的管理与应用等问题。研究旨在为地方政府实施生态红线管控绩效考核提供支撑。