Response to commentary on “The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire as a predictor of accidents: A meta-analysis”

A commentary on our previously published meta-analysis about the predictive validity of the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) raised a number of points. These points do not dispute the quantitative results as such, but suggest that our introduction and discussion overly favor the DBQ and are incomplete in a number of ways. The commentary targeted the following topics: common method variance, intercorrelations of different instruments, accident data validity, correcting for measurement error,

Common method variance

Our meta-analysis provided an extensive discussion of validity threats, including ones not treated before in the DBQ literature, such as common scale anchors and publication bias. We see little added value in the commentary when it informs the readership of common method variance (CMV), as we clearly did this in our article. It is widely understood that CMV can account for a large share of the variance when self-reported data are intercorrelated (see Podsakoff, MacKenzie, Lee, & Podsakoff, 2003

Intercorrelations of different instruments

The commentary reacts to an introductory sentence in which we stated that the DBQ is strongly situated in a network of other questionnaires and tests (such as Trait Anxiety, Cognitive Failures Questionnaire, and Sensation Seeking Scale), by asserting that we seem to interpret such correlations as a positive feature of the DBQ and by pointing out that correlations between the DBQ and other self-reports may have arisen spuriously because of CMV.We dispute the assertion that we regard correlations

Accident data validity

The commentary rejects our position that not only self-reported accident data are susceptible to biases, but recorded data too. Note that our remark applied to all types of recorded accidents, including police reports, hospital data, insurance data, as well as fleet data from professional drivers, and not just company data as in the work by af Wåhlberg, Dorn, and Kline (2011), which is mentioned in the commentary. The literature discusses several sources of bias for recorded accidents that are

Correcting for unreliability

The commentary pointed out that our correction for attenuation is unusual, a surprising claim considering the established importance of correction for measurement error in theory testing (Liu and Salvendy, 2009, Schmidt and Hunter, 1999). The available DBQ research provided almost no information on measurement error, so we did not apply a correction as part of the meta-analysis. Instead, we applied one afterwards, based on the raw data of the largest DBQ study available, and illustrated that

Exposure

The commentary points out that our results were not corrected for exposure in any way. First of all, this statement is false, because our meta-analysis did include effect sizes corrected for exposure. We used a special moderator category for effect sizes other than zero-order correlations. These effect sizes were derived from regression analysis, often with mileage as one of the predictors.Second, it may be noted that af Wåhlberg himself reported that the association between exposure and

Further references

The commentary attended us to 11 studies supposedly not included in our meta-analysis. We appreciate af Wåhlberg and Dorn's close scrutiny of our reference list for potential omissions on the DBQ-accident relationship. It may be noted that missing a small fraction of studies in a meta-analysis of this scope is almost inevitable.The samples of four of the studies (Dobson et al., 1999, Elliott et al., 2007, Parker, 1999, Stradling et al., 2005) identified in the commentary were already included

Discussion

The purpose of a meta-analysis is to provide a quantitative summary of a metric of interest, correlations between the DBQ, and external criteria in our case. af Wåhlberg and Dorn's commentary does not dispute the quantitative results in themselves (except with regard to the correction for exposure), but targets the qualitative introduction and discussion of our article.The commentary raises some valid points, albeit points already discussed in our article. We too believe that common method

     

"The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire as a predictor of accidents: A meta-analysis" Comments

A previously published meta-analysis of the predictive power of the Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) versus road traffic crashes is criticized upon a number of counts, including the incomplete handling of common method variance, failure to control for exposure and how the correction for unreliability of the accident variable was undertaken. It is concluded that the results reported, and the conclusions drawn from these, are too favorable to the DBQ, despite the effect sizes being

Common method variance

The main problem associated with the interpretation of the DBQ/accidents association is common method variance (i.e., systematic biases in the self-reports used), which create part or all of the associations found (Chang et al., 2010, Podsakoff et al., 2003). Common method variance may be due to a number of different factors, and in some studies, substantial effects have been found (e.g., Hessing, Elffers, &; Weigel, 1988; for reviews see Cote and Buckley, 1987, Podsakoff et al., 2003). This

Conclusions

To summarize, we believe that the meta-analysis of de Winter and Dodou is somewhat too favorable to the DBQ by failing to make the above points. Yet we paradoxically agree with de Winter and Dodou in one of their conclusions and recommendations; more studies using other-source criteria are needed. The self-report-source only data are not reliable, and conclusions about the predictive power of the DBQ factors versus traffic safety are not yet possible to draw.

     

The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire as accident predictor; A methodological re-meta-analysis

IntroductionThe Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) is the most commonly used self-report tool in traffic safety research and applied settings. It has been claimed that the violation factor of this instrument predicts accident involvement, which was supported by a previous meta-analysis. However, that analysis did not test for methodological effects, or include unpublished results.MethodThe present study re-analysed studies on prediction of accident involvement from DBQ factors, including lapses, and many unpublished effects. Tests of various types of dissemination bias and common method variance were undertaken.ResultsOutlier analysis showed that some effects were probably not reliable data, but excluding them did not change the results. For correlations between violations and crashes, tendencies for published effects to be larger than unpublished ones and for effects to decrease over time were observed, but were not significant. Also, using the mean of accidents as proxy for effect indicated that studies where effects for violations are not reported have smaller effect sizes. These differences indicate dissemination bias. Studies using self-reported accidents as dependent variables had much larger effects than those using recorded accident data. Also, zero-order correlations were larger than partial correlations controlled for exposure. Similarly, violations/accidents effects were strong only when there was also a strong correlation between accidents and exposure. Overall, the true effect is probably very close to zero (r < .07) for violations versus traffic accident involvement, depending upon which tendencies are controlled for.ConclusionsMethodological factors and dissemination bias have inflated the published effect sizes of the DBQ. Strong evidence of various artefactual effects is apparent.Practical applicationsA greater level of care should be taken if the DBQ continues to be used in traffic safety research. Also, validation of self-reports should be more comprehensive in the future, taking into account the possibility of common method variance.     

Personality of young drivers in Oman: Relationship to risky driving behaviors and crash involvement among Sultan Qaboos University students

Objective: Drivers’ behaviors such as violations and errors have been demonstrated to predict crash involvement among young Omani drivers. However, there is a dearth of studies linking risky driving behaviors to the personality of young drivers. The aim of the present study was to assess such traits within a sample of young Omani drivers (as measured through the behavioral inhibition system [BIS] and the behavioral activation system [BAS]) and determine links with aberrant driving behaviors and self-reported crash involvement.

Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted at the Sultan Qaboos University that targeted all licensed Omani's undergraduate students. A total of 529 randomly selected students completed the self-reported questionnaire that included an assessment of driving behaviors (e.g., Driver Behaviour Questionnaire, DBQ) as well as the BIS/BAS measures.

Results: A total of 237 participants (44.8%) reported involvement in at least one crash since being licensed. Young drivers with lower BIS–Anxiety scores and higher BAS–Fun Seeking tendencies as well as male drivers were more likely to report driving violations. Statistically significant gender differences were observed on all BIS and BAS subscales (except for BAS–Fun) and the DBQ subscales, because males reported higher trait scores. Though personality traits were related to aberrant driving behaviors at the bivariate level, the constructs were not predictive of engaging in violations or errors. Furthermore, consistent with previous research, a supplementary multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that only driving experience was predictive of crash involvement.

Conclusions: The findings highlight that though personality traits influence self-reported driving styles (and differ between the genders), the relationship with crash involvement is not as clear. This article further outlines the key findings of the study in regards to understanding core psychological constructs that increase crash risk.     

Difficulties in emotion regulation and risky driving among Lithuanian drivers

Background: Risky driving is a common cause of traffic accidents and injuries. However, there is no clear evidence of how difficulties in emotion regulation contribute to risky driving behavior, particularly in small post-Soviet countries. The present study aimed to investigate the relationship between difficulties in emotion regulation and self-reported risky driving behavior in a sample of Lithuanian drivers.

Methods: A total of 246 nonprofessional Lithuanian drivers participated in a cross-sectional survey. Difficulties in emotion regulation were assessed using the Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale (DERS; Gratz and Roemer 2004), and risky driving behavior was assessed using the Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ; Lajunen et al. 2004).

Results: Males scored higher than females in aggressive violations and ordinary violations. Females scored higher for the nonacceptance of emotional responses, whereas males had more difficulties with emotional awareness than females. More difficulties in emotion regulation were positively correlated with driving errors, lapses, aggressive violations, and ordinary violations for both males and females. Structural equation modeling showed that difficulties in emotion regulation explained aggressive and ordinary violations more clearly than lapses and errors. When controlling for interactions among the distinct regulation difficulties, difficulties with impulse control and difficulties engaging in goal-directed behavior predicted risky driving. Furthermore, nonacceptance of emotional responses and limited access to emotion regulation strategies were related to less violations and more driving errors.

Conclusion: Emotion regulation difficulties were associated with the self-reported risky driving behaviors of Lithuanian drivers. This provides useful hints for improving driver training programs in order to prevent traffic injuries.     

The accident-exposure association: self-reported versus recorded collisions

Problem

It has been claimed that exposure to risk of road traffic accidents (usually conceptualized as mileage) is curvilinearly associated with crashes (i.e., the increase in number of crashes decreases with increased mileage). However, this effect has been criticized as mainly an artifact of self-reported data.

Method

To test the proposition that self-reported accidents create part of the curvilinearity in data by under-reporting by high-accident drivers, self-reported and recorded collisions were plotted against hours of driving for bus drivers.

Results

It was found that the recorded data differed from self-reported information at the high end of exposure, and had a more linear association with the exposure measure as compared to the self-reported data, thus supporting the hypothesis.

Discussion

Part of the previously reported curvilinearity between accidents and exposure is apparently due to biased methods. Also, the interpretation of curvilinearity as an effect of exposure upon accidents was criticized as unfounded, as the causality may just as well go the other way. Impact on industry: The question of how exposure associates with crash involvement is far from resolved, and everyone who uses an exposure metric (mileage, time, induced) should be careful to investigate the exact properties of their variable before using it.     

Social desirability effects in driver behavior inventories

Problem

The use of lie scales to control for common method variance in driver behavior inventories has been very limited. Given that such questionnaires often use self-reported safety variables as criteria, and have social implications, the risk of artefactual associations is high.

Method

A questionnaire containing scales from several well known driver inventories that have been claimed to predict traffic accident involvement was distributed three times to a group of young drivers in a driver education program, as well as a random group twice. The Driver Impression Management scale (DIM) was used to control for socially desirable responding.

Results

For all behavior scales, the correlation with the DIM scale was substantial. If a scale correlated with self-reported crashes, the amount of predictive power was more than halved when social desirability was controlled for. Results were similar for both samples and all waves. The predictive power of the behavior scales was not increased when values were averaged over questionnaire waves, as should have been the case if the measurement and predictive power were valid. Results were similar for self-reported penalty points. The present results indicate that even the most well-known and accepted psychometric scales used in driver research are susceptible to social desirability bias.

Discussion

As social desirability is only one of a number of common method variance mechanisms that can create artefactual associations, and the great popularity of the self-report methodology, the problem for traffic research is grave.

Impact on industry

Organizations that fund traffic safety research need to re-evaluate their policies regarding what methods are acceptable. The use of self-reported independent and dependent variables can lead to directly misleading results, with negative effects on traffic safety.     

Chemical plant innovative safety investments decision-support methodology

Introduction

This article examines the extent to which investing in safety during the creation of a new chemical installation proves profitable.

Method

The authors propose a management supporting cost-benefit model that identifies and evaluates investments in safety within a chemical company. This innovative model differentiates between serious accidents and less serious accidents, thus providing an authentic image of prevention-related costs and benefits. In classic cost-benefit analyses, which do not make such differentiations, only a rudimentary image of potential profitability resulting from investments in safety is obtained.

Results

The resulting management conclusions that can be drawn from such classical analyses are of a very limited nature. The proposed model, however, is applied to a real case study and the proposed investments in safety at an appointed chemical installation are weighed against the estimated hypothetical benefits resulting from the preventive measures to be installed at the installation.

Conclusion

In the case-study carried out in question, it would appear that the proposed prevention investments are justified.

Impact on industry

Such an economic exercise may be very important to chemical corporations trying to (further) improve their safety investments.     

Making work safer: Testing a model of social exchange and safety management

Introduction

This study tests a conceptual model that focuses on social exchange in the context of safety management. The model hypothesizes that supportive safety policies and programs should impact both safety climate and organizational commitment. Further, perceived organizational support is predicted to partially mediate both of these relationships.

Methods

Study outcomes included traditional outcomes for both organizational commitment (e.g., withdrawal behaviors) as well as safety climate (e.g., self-reported work accidents). Questionnaire responses were obtained from 1,723 employees of a large national retailer.

Results

Using structural equation modeling (SEM) techniques, all of the model's hypothesized relationships were statistically significant and in the expected directions. The results are discussed in terms of social exchange in organizations and research on safety climate.

Impact on Industry

Maximizing safety is a social-technical enterprise. Expectations related to social exchange and reciprocity figure prominently in creating a positive climate for safety within the organization.     

Have government regulations improved workplace safety? : A test of the asynchronous regulatory effects in China's coal industry, 1995-2006

Problem

Empirical studies on the effectiveness of workplace safety regulations are inconclusive. This study hypothesizes that the asynchronous effects of safety regulations occur because regulations need time to become effective. Safety regulations will work initially by reducing the most serious accidents, and later by improving overall safety performance.

Method

The hypothesis is tested by studying a provincial level aggregate panel dataset for China's coal industry using two different models with different sets of dependent variables: a fixed-effects model on mortality rate, which is defined as fatalities per 1,000 employees; and a negative binominal model on the annual number (frequency) of disastrous accidents.

Results

Safety regulations can reduce the frequency of disastrous accidents, but have not reduced mortality rate, which represents overall safety performance.

Discussion and summary

Policy recommendations are made, including shifting production from small to large mines through industrial consolidation, improving the safety performance of large mines, addressing consequences of decentralization, and facilitating the implementation of regulations through carrying on institutional actions and supporting legislation.

Impact on industry

Until recently, about 4,000 coal miners perished annually in China, demonstrating that workplace safety in China's coal industry is an urgent and important issue. This research provides evidence that safety regulations have asynchronous effects and identifies the priorities in improving safety in China's current coal mining. This may assist the Chinese government to design more effective safety improvement policies and improve the effectiveness of safety regulations and safety performance.     

Health, safety, self-regulation and the older driver: It's not just a matter of age

Problem

The purpose of this research was to examine the impact of age and health on patterns of driving and self-regulation among older adults who still drive.

Method

This analysis presents the results of a nationwide survey of drivers who are 50 + (N = 3,824, 53.11% response rate), focusing on questions about the impact of their self-reported health on attitudes toward and self-regulation of driving.

Results

The data indicate that as age increases, so too does reported self-regulation of driving, increasing sharply among those ages 70 and older. The data also indicate that respondent's reported confidence in driving and their enjoyment of driving decline as they age. Health status bears a significant relationship with all three of these variables, positively related to confidence in driving skills and to enjoyment in driving, but negatively related to self-regulation reports. As self-reported health declines, respondent's report engages in greater voluntary restrictions of their driving.

Discussion

All too often, the driving decision is linked primarily to chronological age. Analysis done here indicates that age alone is not the best indicator of self-regulation and how older adults change their driving behaviors.

Summary

This research presents the results of a nationwide survey of 50+ drivers and their self-reported driving, self-regulation behaviors, and health status. Strong support was found for the argument that chronological age is not an adequate measure of self-regulating behaviors and driver safety among those 50+. In particular, it was found that a person's health status and the interaction between age and health are essential considerations in the decisions around self-regulation and driving. People tend to self-regulate more with age, but the effect becomes much more pronounced as health status declines.

Impact on industry

In the coming years, if older adults can't get to where they want to go and continue to be viable consumers in our national fabric, all industries will eventually suffer. Transportation is a key component to the nation's social contract with older individuals and their families.     

The impact of state level behavioral regulations on traffic fatality rates

Introduction

A state by year panel is analyzed to simultaneously explore the statistical correlation between state level traffic fatality rates and state level behavioral regulations regarding teen licensing, seat belt use, and driving under the influence (DUI) in a model that also controls for other correlates.

Method

By including measures of all three of these policies, the estimated policy effects should not be overstated due to underspecification bias. The panel includes the 48 contiguous U.S. states for the time period from 1999 through 2003. State fatality rates are measured as fatalities per million miles traveled. Measures of state policies regarding traffic safety related behavior are based on information gathered by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Estimates are calculated via a time fixed effects model that uses the double-log form to allow for interaction effects between the independent variables.

Results

Least squares estimates indicate that, on average, more restrictive graduated teen licensing and DUI policies significantly reduce traffic fatality rates, while stricter seat belt enforcement policies have a statistically insignificant negative impact on fatality rates.     

A reporting guide for studies on individual differences in traffic safety

Problem

Studies on individual differences in traffic safety report differently on their methodologies, and use different statistics, and these are therefore difficult to compare and meta-analyze.

Method

Based upon a previous, extensive review and meta-analysis of the traffic safety literature, several recommendations are made about what features of the methodology of studies on individual differences (including evaluations) in safety need to be reported to facilitate interpretation and meta-analysis. Similarly, some basic types of statistical values are recommended.

Impact on Industry

The accumulation of knowledge about individual differences in traffic safety would be facilitated if scientific authors and journals adhered to these guidelines.     

Acciphilia on the road: An analysis of severe collisions

Introduction

Although prior studies of road traffic accidents have found between-group differences in risk, little attention has been given to the encounter between drivers involved in severe collisions.

Method

The present study empirically evaluates two different possible causes of "social accidents," which are defined as collisions between two or more drivers where some faulty social interaction might be assumed, and which are the most prevalent cause of road injuries. The analyses use merged Israeli collision records from 1983 to 2004 with data from two national censuses, thus providing an unprecedented empirical basis to study the social foundations of car accidents. The data are used to adjudicate between two alternative hypotheses: the heterogeneity hypothesis (socially different drivers tend to collide) versus the homogeneity hypothesis (socially similar drivers tend to collide).

Results

Multivariate analyses provide preliminary support for the latter hypothesis. Given an accident, there are more collisions among drivers from the same broad educational group, and the factors that influence this correlation are independent of geography. The paper thus leads to the idea that severe collisions reflect a sociological or ecological process that is akin to acciphilia.

Impact on Industry

The preliminary findings suggest that variation between drivers may be preferable to similarity, since apparently there is a greater tendency toward collisions between similar drivers.     

Differences in urban and rural accident characteristics and medical service utilization for traffic fatalities in less-motorized societies

Introduction

Fatalities from traffic accidents in less-motorized societies are an important global issue. We aimed to characterize the geographic differences of fatalities in such societies to facilitate the development of targeted interventions.

Method

This study linked police reports, hospital data, and vital registration data from Taiwan with special reference to accident factors in pre-hospital deaths and medical care in hospital deaths.

Results

A higher percentage of pre-hospital deaths were observed following rural as compared to urban traffic accidents. The deaths due to rural accidents can be attributed to lower use of restraints (i.e., helmets or seat belts), lower percentage of motorcyclists, and more highway accidents. A higher percentage of victims in rural accidents were transported to distant medical centers rather than to local hospitals.

Conclusion

Specific interventions, such as intelligent emergency medical systems, campaigns for helmets and seat belt usage, enforcement of helmets and seat belt use, and speed control measures should be targeted to rural areas.

Impact on industry

Cooperation between the vehicle industry and emergency medical providers in rural traffic accident rescue teams may decrease the numbers of deaths in these regions.     

Re-education of young driving offenders; Effects on self-reports of driver behavior

Introduction

Offending drivers are often re-educated, but these courses have seldom been shown to have any safety effects.

Method

An on-line improvement course for offending drivers below the age of 25 was evaluated with several driver inventories.

Results

The drivers reported higher levels of aggression, stress, sensation seeking, drunk driving, and driving violations, six months after the course than before. However, these levels were lower than those of controls, indicating that the initially low levels for the education group were due to socially desirable responding, as measured by a lie scale, an effect that waned after the course.

Discussion

The results can be interpreted as a positive effect of the education, although this conclusion is tentative and not in agreement with all effects in the data.

Impact on industry

The results are in disagreement with previous evaluation studies using the same or similar instruments, and show the need to include controls for social desirability in self-report studies.     

Global trend according to estimated number of occupational accidents and fatal work-related diseases at region and country level

Background

Although occupational accidents and work-related diseases have been of interest for a long time, due to lack of proper recording and notification systems the official numbers of occupational accidents and work-related diseases are missing for many countries. Presently, the demand for effectiveness and an interest in the economic aspects of accidents have increased prevention activities at company and country levels.

Methods

Occupational accident data of selected countries and of World Health Organization regional divisions together with the global burden of disease were used in estimating global occupational accidents and fatal work-related diseases. The trend of global occupational accidents and work-related diseases is presented at region and country levels. The years 1998, 2001, and 2003 are compared in the case of occupational accidents and the years 2000 and 2002 in the case of work-related diseases.

Results

The total number of occupational accidents and fatal work-related diseases has increased, but the fatality rates per 100,000 workers have decreased. There were almost 360,000 fatal occupational accidents in 2003 and almost 2 million fatal work-related diseases in 2002. Every day more than 960,000 workers get hurt because of accidents. Each day 5,330 people die because of work-related diseases.

Conclusions

Information on occupational accidents and work-related diseases is needed so that countries may understand better the importance of occupational health and safety at country and company level. Especially companies in developing countries are not familiar with occupational safety and health. Statistical data is essential for accident prevention; it is a starting point for the safety work.     

Effects of in-vehicle monitoring on the driving behavior of teenagers

Objectives

The objective was to determine if teenage driving behavior improves when a monitoring and feedback device is installed in the teen's vehicle.

Methods

Vehicles of 85 teenage drivers were fit with a device that detected all instances of sudden braking/acceleration, speeding, and nonuse of seat belts. Drivers were assigned randomly to one of four research groups, differing in whether or not an alert sounded in the vehicle and whether or not parents were given access to websites containing notification records. Time trends in event rates per mile traveled were compared using Poisson regression.

Results

Seat belt use improved when violations were reported to the parent websites, and improved even more when in-vehicle alerts were activated. Consistent reductions in speeding were achieved only when teenagers received alerts about their speeding behavior, believed their speeding behavior would not be reported to parents if corrected, and when parents were being notified of such behavior by report cards.

Conclusions

Electronic monitoring of teenage drivers can reduce the incidence of risky behavior, especially seat belt nonuse. More complicated behavior is more difficult to change, however.

Impact on Industry

Parent participation is key to successful behavioral modification, but it is yet to be determined how best to encourage such participation.     

Occupant injury severity from lateral collisions: A literature review

Problem

Side impacts are a serious automotive injury problem; they represent about 30% of all fatalities for passenger vehicle occupants. This literature review focuses on occupant injuries resulting from real lateral collisions. It emphasizes the interaction between injury patterns and crash factors, taking into account type of injuries and their severity. It highlights what is known on the subject and suggests further studies.

Method

We reviewed papers identified by searches in two electronic databases for the 1996-2009 publication period, and in specific journals and conference proceedings.

Results

Studies on the Primary Direction of Force (PDOF) have revealed that fatal crashes occur most frequently when the PDOF is at 3 or 9 o'clock. The risk of serious injury is two to three times higher for the near-side occupant than for the far-side occupant. Head injuries predominate in oblique impacts and thoracic injuries in perpendicular ones. A few results are also reported on side airbag protection.

Conclusions

This literature review presents an overall picture of the injuries caused by lateral collisions, though each of the papers or articles examined focuses mostly on some particular aspect of the problem. The incidence of specific injuries depends on the data source used. Very few population-based analyses of lateral collision injuries were found.

Impact on industry

New studies are needed to evaluate new protective devices (e.g., lateral airbags, inflatable curtains). Without interfering with their care duties, Emergency Medical Technicians could be systematically trained to observe the collision's specific characteristics and to report all their relevant observations to the emergency physicians to increase the likelihood of prompt diagnosis and proper care.