高速铁路气象灾害风险分析与区划方法探讨

借鉴已有气象灾害风险区划相关研究成果,初步探讨高速铁路气象灾害风险分析与区划方法。从气象灾害对高速铁路的影响机理入手,分析筛选出大风、水灾、雷电、低温雨雪冰冻等气象灾害的风险评价因子,构建区划评价指标体系,建立评价模型,分析制定可体现高速铁路沿线气象灾害风险发生时间、空间、强度可能性的风险区划方案,为科学制定沿线气象灾害风险区划提供参考依据。     

我国的主要气象灾害及防御对策

介绍了我国主要气象灾害和气象衍生灾害的种类、分布地区以及气象灾害所造成经济损失情况及特点。从工程性和非工程性措施两方面分析了我国气象灾害防御现状和存在问题,并从建立气象防灾减灾法律保障体系、确保资金投入、完善防御体系、加强科研开发和信息共享提高灾害预警水平、加强合作与交流开展主动防御、提高全社会防灾能力等6个方面提出了相应的防御对策。     

我国公路交通气象灾害风险隐患特征分析

利用2013-2015年全国主要公路交通气象灾害风险普查数据,通过整理和统计分析,得出我国公路交通气象灾害风险隐患点的分布情况、风险隐患点周围的地质和交通状况以及主要气象灾害及其引发的交通事故的分布特征。研究结果表明,①我国公路交通气象灾害风险隐患点总体分布广泛,西南地区、中东地区的风险隐患点数量较多。②强降雨、大雾、路面结冰、公路积雪和团雾是影响我国公路交通的主要气象灾害,占普查总数的86.6%,其中,由强降雨引发的交通事故数量最多;不同区域的主要气象灾害存在明显差异。③从季节特征来看,夏、冬两季,因气象灾害和次生、衍生灾害引发交通事故数较多;1d之中,02:00-05:00为事故易发时段。研究成果可为摸清我国公路交通气象灾害状况、改进交通气象保障服务、降低交通气象灾害风险等提供参考依据。     

农村气象灾害防御体系理论模型初探

根据灾害防御基本原理,简要分析了气象灾害致灾因子对气象灾害防御的影响。在此基础上,结合浙江、重庆、山西、辽宁、安徽、江西、广东、内蒙、贵州等省市的农村气象灾害防御实践,借鉴国外灾害防御体制建设和机制设计的经验,探索性提出了组成农村气象灾害防御体系的6项基本内容,即农村气象灾害风险识别与评价、农村气象灾害监测与预警发布机制、气象灾害预警信息传播与应急响应、气象灾害防御组织体系、气象灾害防御的工程体系以及气象灾害防御的法制化;构建了农村气象灾害防御体系的理论模型;并在专业能力支撑、行政支持、组织保障、政策法规等方面,对未来农村气象灾害防御体系建设提出了建议。     

湖北气象灾害的特点及防御对策

通过分析大量的气象灾害资料,并与其它自然灾害相联系,将发生在湖北的气象灾害进行了归纳,将其划分为6大类18种,并对其影响作了简要的描述．同时,根据历史上湖北气象灾害发生发展的时空分布规律以及气象灾害之间的相互联系,找出了湖北气象灾害发生的特点．最后,从减轻自然灾害的角度出发,针对湖北减灾工作的实际,提出了相应的防御对策．     

气象灾害静动态风险管理析探

带着气象灾害风险管理存在分类不清的问题,应用相关资料和云南气象灾害风险管理的实例,初步将气象灾害风险管理分为静、动态两类,并进行定义、过程、目标、任务方面的对比分析。结果表明:气象灾害风险管理不论从风险定义、管理过程、研究与应用的技术方法、结果、目标上都存在明显的差异,划分为静态和动态风险管理是应该的,具有理论和应用价值;静态风险管理和动态风险管理都是气象灾害防御体系中的重要组成部分,能从不同的角度提高防灾减灾的能力和水平,静态风险管理主要基于气候研究技术,动态风险管理主要基于天气研究技术;气象灾害静态风险管理已有了一些研究和应用成果,而动态风险管理还处在探索阶段。     

公众认知、感知价值与灾害气象服务满意度的关系研究——以深圳市3029份《公众气象安全认知度调查问卷》数据为例

目前从公众认知水平的角度出发,评价灾害气象服务满意度的文献较少。该文创新性地提出了公众气象认知这一概念,以深圳市3 029份公众气象安全认知度调查数据为例,采用结构方程模型,评估了公众认知、感知价值与灾害气象服务满意度之间的关系。研究发现,公众认知水平对灾害气象服务满意度的评价具有重要的影响。另外还发现:1深圳市公众对于气象服务总体评价良好,对台风期间的气象服务的满意度最高,而对气象预警信息获得的便捷性的满意度最低;2公众气象认知与灾害气象服务感知价值均显著影响公众对于灾害气象服务的满意度;3提高公众气象认知,可通过促进对气象服务价值的感知,进而提高公众的满意度。针对以上结论,给出了相应的政策建议。     

我国气象灾害综合区划

对于区域气象灾害的研究,以往多侧重单一灾种或气象灾害系统中某一子系统的研究,缺乏对区域多灾种气象灾害综合分析。本文采取“中国主要气象灾害分析”的十种气象灾害资料,首先通过春、夏、秋、冬各季主导气象灾害的频率分布,构成各季节气象灾害地域组合类型,再依据综合区划原则,制定出各季综合灾害区:春季划分成6个综合灾害区,夏季划分成5个综合灾害区,秋季划分成4个综合灾害区,冬季划分成3个综合灾害区。     

我国气象灾害减灾救灾标准体系完备性研究

在全球变暖的背景下,气象灾害发生的频次增多且造成的影响不断加重,气象灾害的管理已成为国家公共安全管理的重要内容,气象灾害标准体系建设的完备性,对于气象灾害管理有着十分重要的意义。按照气象灾害标准体系框架,搜集国家气象相关权威部门标准委员会门户网站公布的气象灾害相关标准库,并分析了气象灾害减灾救灾标准体系在专业、门类和层次三个维度的完备性。最终指出了气象灾害减灾救灾标准体系存在的不足,进而给出了减灾救灾标准体系建设的政策建议。     

我国重大气象灾害的应急管理研究

我国气象灾害多,已经成为主要自然灾害形式,重大气象灾害近年来发生概率大,经常引发群死群伤,造成难以估量的经济损失,严重危害了社会发展.故而,重大气象灾害的预防和处理是头等大事,只有进一步完善气象灾害应急管理体系,采取行之有效的预防措施,根据气象灾害的类型,制定应急处理方案,不仅能提前管控气象灾害,还能提高气象灾害应急处...     

Cholera in Sudan: An account of an epidemic in a refugee camp in eastern Sudan, May-June 1985

In 1985 cholera has been a serious problem in the horn of Africa, particularly affecting the many famine victims and refugees in that region. In this paper the history of cholera in Africa is briefly summarized, as is the background to the current refugee situation in eastern Sudan. A cholera epidemic involving 1,175 cases in two adjacent refugee camps in eastern Sudan is described. In this epidemic there were thirteen inpatient deaths and thirty-eight known home deaths from cholera. The management of the epidemic is described in detail. Overall an average of 8 1. of intravenous fluid was used per case, a higher figure than was anticipated, probably because of the unexpected degree of vomiting and the shortage of trained nursing staff.
The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed.     

A retrospective statistical review of deaths owing to migration through the southeasternmost land borders of the European Union,Greece 2000–14

The land borders of Evros, Greece, have been a common entry point for undocumented migrants on their way to Europe through Turkey. Adverse conditions, however, have resulted in many human casualties over the years. On the Greek side, 334 cadavers were retrieved between 2000 and 2014. This study provides a detailed forensic account of the humanitarian disaster in Evros to create an official scientific record of the situation. It showcases the gravity of the global issue of migration relating to health and mortality, and encourages communication and continual improvement of the approach and patterns of practices surrounding the subject. A retrospective statistical research review was conducted of border‐related fatalities between 2000 and 2014, assessing the age and gender of victims, the cause of death, the location of bodies, identification rates, and country of origin. Age ranged generally from 24 to 29 years, but infants and children were among the deceased.     

Complexity,continuity and change: livelihood resilience in the Darfur region of Sudan

Darfur farming and pastoralist livelihoods are both adaptations to the environmental variability that characterises the region. This article describes this adaptation and the longer‐term transformation of these specialised livelihoods from the perspective of local communities. Over several decades farmers and herders have experienced a continuous stream of climate, conflict and other shocks, which, combined with wider processes of change, have transformed livelihoods and undermined livelihood institutions. Their well‐rehearsed specialist strategies are now combined with new strategies to cope. These responses help people get by in the short term but risk antagonising not only their specialist strategies but also those of others. A combination of factors has undermined the former integration between farming and pastoralism and their livelihood institutions. Efforts to build resilience in similar contexts must take a long‐term view of livelihood adaptation as a specialisation, and consider the implications of new strategies for the continuity and integration of livelihood specialisations.     

Reflections on 40 years of Disasters, 1977–2017

This reflection, based on a keynote address to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of Disasters on 14 September 2017, begins by considering some of the prevailing assumptions that existed at the time of the journal's creation. Next is a summary of significant milestones during the past 40 years, covering major global trends, changing disaster impacts, and key developments in disaster risk management. Contrasting approaches in the first and fourth decade of the journal's history are then followed by examples of changes in terminology in the disaster field as an indication of shifting values. The paper goes on to explore the context of 2017, with observations of problem areas such as the loss of knowledge, failures to tackle the root causes of disasters, shortfalls in international assistance, and some negative attitudes. It closes by evaluating some current positive occurrences, including a reduction in casualties, sharing of experience, technological advances, and dramatic improvements in disaster warning.     

Fiji, land of tropical cyclones and hurricanes: A case study of agricultural rehabilitation

Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have a severe impact on the social and economic activities of affected communities. For small island nations in the Pacific region, the effects can be devastating because of their smallness. FQi and several other countries in the region are vulnerable to such disasters as they are situated in the zone where cyclones occur frequently.
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems.     

Tsunami survivors' perspectives on vulnerability and vulnerability reduction: evidence from Koh Phi Phi Don and Khao Lak, Thailand

This paper presents the results of primary research with 40 survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in two communities: Khao Lak (n=20) and Koh Phi Phi Don (n=20), Thailand. It traces tsunami survivors' perceptions of vulnerability, determines whether residents felt that the tsunami affected different communities differently, identifies the populations and sub-community groups that survivors distinguished as being more vulnerable than others, highlights community-generated ideas about vulnerability reduction, and pinpoints a range of additional vulnerability reduction actions. Tsunami survivors most consistently identified the 'most vulnerable' community sub-populations as women, children, the elderly, foreigners, and the poor. In Khao Lak, however, respondents added 'Burmese migrants' to this list, whereas in Koh Phi Phi Don, they added 'Thai Muslims'. Results suggest that the two case study communities, both small, coastal, tourism-dominated communities no more than 100 kilometres apart, have differing vulnerable sub-groups and environmental vulnerabilities, requiring different post-disaster vulnerability reduction efforts.     

火灾场景中玻璃破裂行为研究综述

建筑物在火场中的结构响应问题中,门窗玻璃在火场中的热响应特性及破裂脱落是影响火灾发展的重要因素之一。通过事故案例分析了火灾场景中玻璃破裂脱落的危害性,指出了研究火灾场景中玻璃受热破裂脱落的意义,并对目前火灾场景中玻璃受热破裂过程和主要形态、玻璃的破裂机理和判据等的研究现状进行了详细的分析,总结了目前实验和计算机模拟的最新研究进展和不足,为今后进一步开展玻璃受热破裂脱落研究提出了若干建议。     

中国内陆自然环境的干旱化与未来趋势

根据中国内陆陕西、甘肃部分地区５０９ａ旱涝资料和主要测站气象、水文实测数据,应用Ｗｏｒｄ９７图形处理系统,证明在５２６ａ序列中目前处在１１ａ、５０ａ滑动的干旱期。近４６ａ气温上升了０．３℃,年降水减少了８０ｍｍ,径流量减少了０．７８％,出现了明显的干旱化,环境变化趋势不容乐观。     

美国的洪泛平原管理

美国开展洪泛平原管理已有约40年历史，洪水保险计划是美国泛平原管理的主要措施。了解并借鉴他们的思路与具体策略，将有助于我国洪泛平原管理政策的制定。     

A general assessment of the environmental impact of refugees in Somalia with attention to the refugee agricultural programme

This paper attempts to examine the broad features of Somalia's harsh physical environment into which several hundreds of thousands of refugees, with mainly a nomadic or semi-nomadic life style and culture, dramatically descended six years ago. The thirty-six rural camps in which at least half of them live are described as is the refugee agricultural programme which is training several thousand families so that they may be "self-supporting." The four regions where the camps are located are each briefly summarized in terms of their soils, their climates, their natural vegetation, and the type of agriculture which the refugee farmers practice. A more detailed analysis is then given on the following critical environmental concerns: Vegetation and erosion on refugee farms, the growing problem of refugee livestock, the destruction of trees, and irrigation practices and salinity on refugee farms. The paper concludes with an argument to preserve Somalia's environment from careless and destructive exploitation, which is leading towards desertification, and calls for an in-depth study of the situation.