Population Ageing and Sustainable Development Research in China

Abstract

According to the United Nations population projections, the population of the elderly is expected to roughly triple in China from 2000 to 2050, particularly when the generations who were born between the 1950s and 1970s move through the age structure, and also because people are living longer and fertility rates have fallen, population aging is expected to put pressure on government's fiscal balance through higher old-age security benefits and health-care expenditures. This work draws together the broad range of elements involved within a consistent framework, based on a computable dynamic general equilibrium model with an overlapping generation structure. Further analysis using model simulation illustrates that the alternative schemes for the benefit rate, retirement age and technological progress are likely to be beneficial, and that an obvious slow-down in the growth of living standards is likely to be avoided.     

乡村生活空间网络结构特征与优化——以江汉平原典型乡建片区为例

乡村生活空间网络是一定地域乡村居民依托社区节点,通过日常生活实践彼此联系而形成的社会空间系统,探究其空间结构与优化策略对认识乡村生活空间内涵、重塑乡村日常生活秩序具有重要意义。以江汉平原典型乡建片区培育的9个节点社区为研究对象,基于乡村生活空间网络三元系统,构建社区生活质量指标体系,运用改进引力模型与社会网络分析法描述网络结构总体与节点特征,提出乡村生活空间网络优化策略。研究表明：区域乡村生活空间网络结构处于发育阶段,网络兼具整体松散与局部集聚特征,社区间联系正在加强;乡村生活空间网络节点质量有待提升,网络呈现层次清晰的3级节点体系,核心节点虽具有无法替代的网络地位但本身质量不高,次级节点的结构具有相似性需要择优培育,边缘节点需要丰富网络内外联系;基于此,必须构建“1心、8点、1轴、3区”的乡村生活空间网络结构。为评估并识别区域网络节点特征,预测并构建区域网络化发展体系提供了新思路,为平原农区的乡建片区提供了网络化发展的新模式。     

Linking Conservation and Development: An Analysis of Local People’s Attitude Towards Koshi Tappu Wildlife Reserve, Nepal

Factors influencing local people’s attitudes towards conservation of the Koshi Tappu Wildlife Reserve (KTWR) are analyzed using an ordered logit model. The results indicate that households living closer to the KTWR are more likely to reveal negative attitude towards conservation. Similarly, respondents from larger households tend to show negative conservation attitude. Educated respondents and farmers are likely to demonstrate a positive conservation attitude. The results consistently show that households with poor socioeconomic status and greater dependence on the KTWR for firewood, fodder, and raw materials are likely to possess a more negative attitude towards conservation. Poor households may not necessarily be less concerned about conservation, although institutional settings and abject poverty near protected areas appear to affect their attitudes. Sustainable management of protected areas and local support for natural resource conservation would require socioeconomic development.     

Population dynamics of Great Bittern (Botaurus stellaris) in the Netherlands: interaction effects of winter weather and habitat fragmentation

The increased variability in weather as a manifestation of climate change is expected to have negative impacts on population survival in wildlife species, because it will likely lead to increased variation in vital demographic rates (mortality and reproduction) in these populations. For the effective protection of biodiversity, adaptation measures are needed to compensate for the expected increase in weather variability and the negative interaction with habitat fragmentation. As a case study, we studied the fluctuations in Great Bittern numbers (Botaurus stellaris) from 28 monitoring plots scattered over the Netherlands to explore the interaction between the effect of weather and possible remediating effects of the landscape structure. Great Bittern habitat surrounding these plots differs with respect to area, quality, and degree of isolation of this habitat. In western Europe, Great Bitterns are found to be susceptible to continuous loss of suitable habitat due to vegetation succession and fragmentation. Moreover, year-to-year fluctuations in local Great Bittern populations can be caused by severe winter weather or other weather extremes. Our results show that severe winter weather has indeed a significant negative impact on Great Bittern population growth rates. Furthermore, we found that an increased carrying capacity and spatial cohesion (i.e. inverse of habitat fragmentation) contribute to an increase in mean growth rates over the years. As growth rates are higher in large, well-connected habitats, we argue that recovery from negative effects of, e.g. severe winters on Great Bittern population numbers is enhanced in these less-fragmented habitats. We derived generic adaptation measures for enhancing the recovery rate of populations of species in general: one should invest in more large, well-connected nature areas, not only to diminish the negative effects of habitat fragmentation on wildlife populations, but additionally to reduce the impacts of climatic variability.     

中国环境污染与经济增长的实证研究

本文基于我国1981-2007年环境污染与经济增长的相关数据,利用时间序列研究方法对我国EKC进行实证研究,说明建立EKC模型可能存在的问题。为弥补EKC模型中环境不影响经济的假设与变量难以量化的不足,运用VAR模型研究二者的动态关系。EKC研究结果表明:EKC是一种客观现象,而不是一般规律;与人们生产生活关系密切的污染物更有可能出现EKC特征。VAR脉冲响应和方差分解的动态分析结果与二者相互作用机理相符:一方面我国经济增长通过规模效应、结构效应、技术效应等因素影响环境;一方面随着人们环境质量需求弹性的增加,政府对环境质量的重视,环境对企业生产行为的约束机制正逐步形成,但可能由于人们通过自身消费影响产出的作用有限和环境政策实施存在滞后性等原因,这种机制的形成存在一定滞后。     

Farmer typology, future scenarios and the implications for ecosystem service provision: a case study from south-eastern Spain

Farming communities are increasingly expected to manage their agricultural activities in ways that ensure sustainable flows of a wide range of ecosystem services for society. The land use and management choices that farmers make are dependent upon their socio-economic characteristics and background, and in turn have important implications for the landscape and associated ecosystem services. Thus, a better understanding about the linkages between the characteristics of farmers, farm management and land use is important for managing multifunctional agro-ecosystems. In this paper, we first develop a typology of farmers for Torrealvilla catchment in Murcia, Spain, according to the characteristics of their households and farm management (e.g. the farmer’s age, household income, water access, land tenure and farm labour). This analysis distinguishes six types of farmers. Secondly, we analyse the link between farmer typology and the farmers’ responses to a number of scenarios. The scenarios describe different likely changes to agriculture in the catchment in terms of environmental constraints (irrigation water availability and rainfall pattern) and environmental policy regulation (water taxation and subsidies). This exercise enables us to explore the range of future land use changes that are likely to occur in the study area. The results indicate that: rain-fed agriculture is expected to experience gradual but extensive abandonment; vegetable/fruit farming and pig/animal rearing are likely to stagnate or even decline; and growing of grapes is likely to expand. Thirdly, we qualitatively evaluate how future land use changes are likely to affect key ecosystem services in the study area including future agricultural production and associated local income generation, erosion control, maintenance of the groundwater table and various cultural services associated with a heterogeneous agro-ecosystem. Particular changes such as expansion of grape production will increase food production and local income at the cost of further depletion of the aquifer and increased risk of salinisation. The outcomes of the study highlight that, to be effective, the design of agri-environmental schemes and other government interventions (e.g. specific compulsory regulations on farming practices and associated water use) should carefully take into account the characteristics of the farmers within the area of interest, their land uses and the possible diversity of responses to policy and environmental drivers. Opportunities exist for future studies quantifying the extent of the impacts of ecosystem service provision through formal models combining farmers’ land use decision-making and spatially explicit modelling of landscape processes.     

城镇化进程中用水量增长的门槛效应与动态作用机制分析

城镇化是发展中国家21世纪的主要发展趋势,在很大程度上主导着人口、经济和产业结构等各方面的转变,成为拉动用水量增长的关键因素。城镇化进程中城镇居民收入、人口结构、人口密度和人力资本等因素的变化,使得城镇化并非表现为线性发展规律,最终导致用水量也存在相应的门槛效应并呈现阶段性增长特征。本文首先对我国各地区城镇化水平和用水量进行统计分析,从地区层面直观描述我国城镇化水平和用水量的变化特征,然后采用面板门槛模型研究城镇化、城镇居民人均收入、人力资本、城市人口密度和人口年龄结构对于用水量的门槛效应,搜寻在城镇化进程中各人口因素对用水量影响的门槛点并分析阶段性变化特征,最后结合PVAR模型研究城镇化进程中各人口因素对用水量的动态影响和作用机制。门槛回归结果发现:城镇化对用水量的影响具有明显的阶段性特征,分别以城镇化和人均收入为门槛变量,超越门槛点后城镇化对用水量的弹性系数分别呈现先升后降的倒"U"型和先降后升的正"U"型变化趋势;以人力资本为门槛变化量,城镇化对用水量的拉动作用则不断减弱。脉冲响应结果显示:城镇化对用水量具有长期且稳定的正向冲击,而居民收入和人口年龄结构对用水量的正向冲击则逐渐收敛于零,人口密度和人力资本对用水量均具有负向冲击,且人口密度的负效应不断增强,而人力资本的负效应不断减弱。方差分解的结果表明,目前我国用水量的增长受自身的影响较大,除年龄结构外,人口密度、居民收入、人力资本和城镇化也具有小规模的贡献程度。     

城市土地利用对居民通勤碳排放的影响研究

以南阳市为例,基于3 746组实地调查数据,采用GIS、多元线性回归和结构方程模型,系统分析了我国中部城市居民通勤碳排放的空间分异特征,重点研究了居住地和工作地中小尺度土地利用因子对通勤碳排放的影响机制。研究发现:在内生变量中,通勤距离和通勤方式均是影响居民通勤碳排放的显著因素;在外生变量中,工作地的道路密度和商业用地占比、居住地的人口密度与通勤碳排放呈显著正相关,公交线路数量、居住地的土地利用混合度、工作地的居住用地和工业用地占比与通勤碳排放呈显著负相关。研究成果旨在为研究区城市土地利用优化调控和低碳规划提供决策依据,也为其他同类地区城市土地利用低碳规划与可持续发展提供借鉴。     

Attitudes toward income inequality: perspectives from farmers living in a poverty-stricken rural area of China

The attitude of the least advantaged people to income inequality is important in regard to social stability, which is also a major concern of the government and researchers in China. This paper aimed to investigate the perceptions and attitudes of the least advantaged people toward income inequality in China. An empirical analysis was conducted on farmers’ attitudes to income inequality based on a questionnaire survey of 308 farmers in four villages in Yingshan, Hubei Province. Our results show that the respondents consider the income inequality as severe, and ability, hard work, and individual choices are the major determinant factors of income. It is shown that farmers in less developed areas are more likely to accept income inequality, and they ascribe this to their own failure rather than to social injustice. However, it is not the case that people living in poverty-stricken areas are satisfied with anti-poverty policies; and these policies are expected to be further improved to increase the income of the poor.     

基于力学平衡模型的乡村转型均衡发展判别方法研究

社会经济 生物自然 土地管理三维驱动因素通过“农村人口 耕地 农村居民点”3要素之间的相互联系与相互作用驱动着乡村转型发展。以该3要素为研究对象,提出基于力学平衡模型乡村转型发展偏离度的评价方法,并综合应用 2000 年和 2010 年两期 Landsat TM影像解译数据及2006~2020年规划修编数据,分析了江苏省乡村地区转型变化的特征规律。研究表明：江苏省各县（市区）乡村地区转型发展过程中,存在不同程度偏离发展情况;偏离度空间上呈现极角苏南<苏中<苏北,极径苏南>苏中>苏北的规律;农村居民点扩张成为乡村转型均衡发展的最重要阻碍因素,这根源于我国特殊的城乡“三元”结构社会体制,目前“生产空间较好的实现了转型,生活空间和身份空间依然滞留在乡村地区”,现阶段的乡村转型发展是一种不均衡的发展模式,必须实现向“以人为本”发展方式转变     

Stochastic mortality theory and the mortality potential: A biophysical model for certain competing risks

The theory of competing risks cannot be based entirely on the analysis of postmortem pathology data. It is necessary also to know the prevalence and residence times of the diseases in question, separately and jointly, in the living population at risk. It is also necessary to have a conceptual model of the transition process from health to disease, or from one disease state to another, within the organism, so that the formal transition probabilities estimated from epidemiological data can be interpreted in biophysical terms as arising from changes in the physico-chemical state of the organism. This paper offers such a model for transition processes arising from fluctuations of physiological state (for example, lapse into diabetic coma or insulin shock as a result of extreme high or low excursions of the blood sugar level). A Gaussian fluctuation process is postulated, and the transition probability, or incidence rate, is calculated as the frequency with which the state variable fluctuates beyond a specified distance, Λ, from the mean state. An explicit solution is given for the limiting, but biologically reasonable, case that such an excursion is a rare event. In this case, the transition probability varies exponentially for linear displacement of Λ or of the dispersion of fluctuations, σ. If Λ decreases, and/or σ increases, as a linear function of age, this model yields an exponential (Gompertzian) relation of disease incidence to age. Generalization to more than one variable is accomplished by introducing the concept of a mortality potential surface, in which the disease transitions are geometrized as saddle points, or “passes”, on the surface.     

Demographic structure of Siberian roe deer (Capreolus pygargus Pall.) population in central Yakutia

The dynamics of the sex and age structure of Siberian roe deer in central Yakutia has been analyzed over the period from 1998 to 2011. In the snowy winter of 2004, mass migration and high mortality of the animals were recorded. The following shift of the adult sex ratio in favor of females and increase in the proportion of calves provided for rapid population recovery. Climate warming, accompanied by increase in the amount of snow, has impaired living conditions for Siberian roe deer. Realization of the species reproductive potential is restrained by natural and anthropogenic elimination factors, and prospects for future population growth are poor.     

Assessing the implications of a 1.5 °C temperature limit for the Jamaican agriculture sector

Despite recent calls to limit future increases in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C, little is known about how different climatic thresholds will impact human society. Future warming trends have significant global food security implications, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) that are recognized as being among the most vulnerable to global climate change. In the case of the Caribbean, any significant change in the region’s climate is likely to have significant adverse effects on the agriculture sector. This paper explores the potential biophysical impacts of a +?1.5 °C warming scenario on several economically important crops grown in the Caribbean island of Jamaica. Also, it explores differences to a >?2.0 °C warming scenario, which is more likely, if the current policy agreements cannot be complied with by the international community. We use the ECOCROP niche model to estimate how predicted changes in future climate could affect the growing conditions of several commonly cultivated crops from both future scenarios. We then discuss some key policy considerations for Jamaica’s agriculture sector, specifically related to the challenges posed to future adaptation pathways amidst growing climate uncertainty and complexity. Our model results show that even an increase less than +?1.5 °C is expected to have an overall negative impact on crop suitability and a general reduction in the range of crops available to Jamaican farmers. This observation is instructive as increases above the +?1.5 °C threshold would likely lead to even more irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the sustainability of Jamaica’s agriculture sector. The paper concludes by outlining some key considerations for future action, paying keen attention to the policy relevance of a +?1.5 °C temperature limit. Given little room for optimism with respect to the imminent changes that SIDS will need to confront in the near future, broad-based policy engagement by stakeholders in these geographies is paramount, irrespective of the climate warming scenario.     

贵州人口老龄化空间格局演变及环境成因

人口是一种重要的社会经济资源,老化的人口渐趋成为贵州经济社会可持续发展中不可回避的问题。研究贵州人口老龄化县域差异,可为老龄化问题解决和人口政策合理制定提供科学参考。选取1990、2000和2010年贵州县域老龄系数为人口老龄化指标,采用空间自相关和热点分析、地理加权回归和偏最小二乘法探求人口老龄化变化特征和环境成因。得出如下结论:(1)1990～2010年,贵州省县域老龄系数总体由东北向西南递减,2000年后空间内部组团明显;贵州老龄系数变动大致以贵阳分界,以东老龄系数递增较快,以西递增较慢。(2)贵州老龄人口空间集聚不断增强,区域间差异逐渐扩大;老龄系数低低区域增长显著,同时冷热点空间出现明显扩散与转移。(3)环境成因对人口老龄化影响具有空间差异,总体上降水是促进老龄人口聚集的主要自然因素,地形起伏度和气温对人口老龄化具有负向作用,石漠化的改善对人口老龄化影响由弱变强。     

Impacts of Social and Demographic Factors on Residents’ Subjective Well-being in Rural China

Abstract

The objective of social development is to construct a harmonious society. In China, the key to a harmonious society is the happiness of more than 900 million farmers living in the rural areas. This study aimed to measure rural residents’ subjective well-being (SWB) through the day reconstruction method, as well as to analyze SWB’s influencing factors through a variety of statistical methods. The results showed that the average U index was 12.79%, indicating that respondents were unhappy 12.79% of the time. Twenty-seven percent of the population had a U index greater than 0, with the average value being 47%, indicating that these people were unhappy 47% of the time. The study also found that SWB varied according to the characteristics of the respondents. Logistic regression analysis showed that social and demographic factors, including age, education, county, household size, generation number, per capita income, migration status and social networking, which significantly affected rural residents’ SWB. The size of the impact varied with the different factors.     

洞庭湖区退田还湖、移民建镇的社会经济效应

为了探讨长江中游地区的地方经济发展模式与移民安置容量之间的关系，充分认识生态环境治理的区域社会经济依托条件和限制因素，我们在世界自然基金会长江项目的支持下，开展“洞庭湖农村工业发展与移民建镇的案例研究”。洞庭湖区人口和城镇密集，又是全国重要的商品农业基地，退田还湖和平垸行洪的人口压力很大，移民安置任务艰巨。课程组对位于洞庭湖区的常德、岳阳两市的汉寿，安乡，岳阳3县进行了实地调查，并在6个案例乡镇进行了重点访问与移民问卷调查和乡镇企业问卷调查。以移民问卷调查为研究基础，对比分析政府在移民安置中采取的战略模式和空间取向与移民的就业和居住意愿，深入认识移民安置与城市化的相互作用关系，为制定科学合理，相互协调统一的洞庭湖区移民建镇长远规划和城镇化战略提供决策参考。     

A mathematical model to investigate the impact of overgrowing population-induced mining on forest resources

Here, we develop a mathematical model which investigates the impact of growing population and rampant mining on forest resources, present in an urban region. In order to demonstrate the effect imposed by the overgrowing population on the environment, population pressure is incorporated in the model, which augments mining activities in the given region. The obtained model is studied qualitatively using stability theory of differential equations, while it is quantitatively analyzed through numerical simulation. The results of the model reveal that a whopping increase in unchecked mining activities, induced through excessive population growth, leads to declination of forest resources in a region. Therefore, sustainable mining is suggested through control measures imposed by the government on mining activities.     

大都市区人口空间配置优化方法研究——以无锡市区为例

大都市区是经济社会发展水平较高的区域,也是人口最为密集的区域,随着人口规模急剧增加,资源消耗、环境容量占用、污染排放均呈现出上升的态势,同时也引致交通拥挤、空间局促、公共服务供给不均等一系列社会问题,也成为制约大都市区经济社会可持续发展的主要因素。为此,许多国家和地区实施人口总量控制和区域调控政策,目的在于协调人口布局与资源环境和经济发展间的关系。在借鉴地理学传统分区方法基础上,综合考虑自然生态、资源环境、经济社会发展等方面要素,从人居环境的约束性和适宜性两方面出发,构建人口空间布局适宜性分区评价的指标体系,探讨了单元划分、指标赋值和综合评价等方法,并采用修正矩阵向量模型计算各评价单元人口布局适宜性指数,在此基础上应用同比例关联法构建了人口总量指标空间配置优化模型。最后,以无锡市区为例对分区方法和空间配置优化模型进行检验,结果表明老城区人口密度过高,环境容量趋于饱和,需要疏解人口;外围的新城和开发区所在区域,人口密度较低,人口布局适宜性也较好,是未来人口集聚的重点区域;望虞河、直湖港沿线等生态敏感区、机场周边等地区不适合大规模人口布局,需要控制甚至迁出区内人口。在此基础上提出无锡市区人口空间布局优化方案,以期为制定差别化的人口引导政策提供科学依据     

中国城市住宅售租比时空分异格局及影响机制

以2009～2017年中国336个地级以上城市为基本研究单元,利用空间趋势面和探索性空间回归技术(ESDA)对中国城市住宅售租比的空间分布进行模拟和估计,并利用地理探测器模型从城市的经济因素、人口因素、社会因素和预期因素4大方面探析售租比时空分异的影响机制。结果表明:中国城市住宅售租比整体呈波动式上升的态势,空间分布呈现出"东高西低"、"东热西冷"的阶梯状格局,且住宅价格、住宅租金和售租比均存在明显的空间正相关性和较强的区域集聚性。收入水平和工资水平是影响售租比最大的因素,住宅预期、人口吸引力、租赁户比重、家庭规模、经济预期等也是影响售租比的重要因素,经济因素、人口因素、预期因素和社会因素的解释力依次减弱,4大因素相互联系、相互作用,形成中国售租比的时空分异格局。