Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining

The concept of “peak oil” has been explored and debated extensively within the literature. However there has been comparatively little research examining the concept of “peak minerals”, particularly in-depth analyses for individual metals. This paper presents scenarios for mined copper production based upon a detailed assessment of global copper resources and historic mine production. Scenarios for production from major copper deposit types and from individual countries or regions were developed using the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo). These scenarios were extended using cumulative grade-tonnage data, derived from our resource database, to produce estimates of potential rates of copper ore grade decline.The scenarios indicate that there are sufficient identified copper resources to grow mined copper production for at least the next twenty years. The future rate of ore grade decline may be less than has historically been the case, as mined grades are approaching the average resource grade and there is still significant copper endowment in high grade ore bodies. Despite increasing demand for copper as the developing world experiences economic growth, the economic and environmental impacts associated with increased production rates and declining ore grades (particularly those relating to energy consumption, water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions) will present barriers to the continued expansion of the industry. For these reasons peak mined copper production may well be realised during this century.     

Wishful thinking and reality in the concept of vertical integration of developing countries in metal production

The concept of vertical integration plays an important role in the discussion on a New World Economic Order as well as in the Integrated Programme for Commodities. The idea is to relocate raw material processing industries and first stages of manufacturing from the advanced countries to the commodity exporting developing countries. As far as metal production is concerned – and this paper deals with iron and steel, aluminium, copper and tin – the conclusion is that vertical integration is in general far too simple a concept. Only project based analysis can reveal if development in this direction can be regarded as politically and economically feasible.     

INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS IN THE NON-FUEL MINERAL SECTOR IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIE

Concern over the financial requirements for the long-term expansion of the world non-fuel minerals industry has led to growing interest in estimates of the magnitude of the requirements. The authors focus on the requirements in the developing countries for nine major minerals and deal with the most important among these, copper, in an appendix.     

Practical and ethical considerations of agricultural research assistance for the Third World

The right to eat and to an adequate standard of living for everyone motivates agricultural research assistance to developing countries with the primary objective of assuring sufficient food supply. This article focuses on aspects of food production and related agricultural research with specific examples from animal production. It discusses ethics of agricultural research in light of the utilitarian theory and compares livestock production in developing and developed countries. Major reasons for low outputs of animal production in developing countries are identified, and the potential for increasing the productivity of original, extensive production systems is evaluated. The article reviews the current status of biotechnology in developing countries and discusses several advanced animal technologies. The conclusions emphasize the need to involve local professionals in all phases of research and technology transfer in developing countries, avoidance of research that may worsen the situation of the recipients, sustainability of production systems, and the need for detailed assessment of potential impacts of technology on recipients.     

The roles of Asia and Chile in the world copper market

Examining the production and consumption for copper between 1985 and 2003, we see two dramatic changes. The first is the rapid growth of consumption in China and other Asian countries, the second the rapid growth of production in Chile. This paper examines these two important developments, which nicely accommodated each other, allowing the global copper market to remain more or less in balance over this period. A better understanding of the forces responsible for both, it is hoped, will allow us to understand better whether they are likely to continue in the future in a manner that provides a rough balance between global consumption and the available production.     

Would commodity market stabilization agreements redistribute economic resources to developing countries?: The case of copper

There has been strong pressure, particularly within UNCTAD, for international stabilization agreements for the major commodity markets, in order to stabilize prices and to redistribute resources towards the developing country producers. However, no empirical evidence on the feasibility or desirability of these proposals has appeared. As an illustration of the possibilities, this paper makes estimates of the stabilizing power and costs of buffer stock interventions in the world copper market. We find that price and revenue stabilization is technically possible; but that to generate income transfers to the developing countries is prohibitively expensive and creates a further problem of redistribution among developing country producers.     

External Debt and Prospects for Minerals-exporting Developing Countries

This article examines the extent to which selected non-fuel minerals-exporting developing countries can rely on their traditional source of hard-currency earnings to promote future economic growth and to facilitate payments for interest and amortization of accumulated debt. The countries (and minerals) under consideration are: Chile (copper), Bolivia (tin) and Jamaica (bauxite). Incorporated into the study are sets of alternative assumptions regarding global demand for these minerals to the end of the century, market shares, mineral prices, external debt levels and interest rates. More specifically, the study examines the likely ranges of future export revenues of these countries from these minerals in the years 1990 and 2000, and the role that these future export revenues may play in servicing external debt.     

The new economic order and world mineral production and trade

World mineral production is dominated by the developed countries — the developing countries dominate production of only tin, cobalt, bauxite, and petroleum. This production pattern is largely the result of historical, political, and economic factors, and is not likely to change radically in the next decade. Apart from petroleum, there seems to be little opportunity for the formation of mineral-producer cartels, although there is considerable scope for constructive producer-consumer agreements. Given the pattern of world mineral production and trade, the developed countries would on the whole benefit more than the developing countries from price increases. The most acute present need is for new means of financing exploration and development of mineral deposits in the developing countries, and for means of redressing the worst imbalances between rich and poor nations outside of the commodity arena.     

Small Gold Mines — The Production and Declaration Problem: Another Dilemma for a Small Developing Country*

The under-reporting of gold production in small developing countries denies these countries an important source of foreign exchange. This paper examines the problem in a Guyanese context, and suggests a series of measures to deal with the problem.     

Dynamics of state mining enterprises during the 1980s and the outlook for the 1990s

This paper examines the evolution of the control by the state of mining and smelting from 1975 to 1989. In 1950, there was little state-owned mining capacity outside the centrally planned economies. A wave of nationalizations of mine assets swept over the developing countries in the late 1960s and early 1970s. State control continued to rise, in developing countries as well as in the developed market economy countries, until the mid-1980s, when the trend reversed. At present some 20% of Western world mineral production is state controlled. The level of control is highest for those minerals mined mainly in the developing countries, and lowest for those minerals mined mainly in the developed market economy countries. The current trend is toward privatization of state-owned mining enterprises in developed countries and it is expected that as the 1990s progress, privatization of such enterprises will also begin to take place in developing countries.     

Sustainable recycling model: A comparative analysis between India and Tanzania

Higher economic growth in developing countries has caused higher amounts of wastes. Local government authorities in these countries usually fail to provide adequate services to dispose the increasing amounts of waste, resulting in threats for both the population and environment health. There is therefore an urgent need for recycling as a form of waste management in order to stop the devastating effects of solid waste in developing countries. Using a qualitative method of analysis, this study presents a model to measure and rank the sustainability of recycling programs in India and Tanzania. The model consists of six main constructs including “production, economic, governmental, social, technological, and international factors”. The results showed that India outperforms Tanzania in sustainable recycling programs: per capita waste generated per day in Delhi is higher than in Dar es Salaam; the government of India focuses more on developing recycling plans and techniques as compared to the government of Tanzania where the country is not actively involved in the recycling process; and the solid waste management planning in India is being performed better than Tanzania.     

Sustainable consumption and production: Trends, challenges and options for the Asia-Pacific region

This paper highlights current trends in consumption and production patterns in Asian developing countries and emerging economies. It describes the main challenges and opportunities for Asian countries making the transition towards sustainable consumption and production patterns. The main challenge for Asian economies is to address the unsustainable consumption patterns of urban consumers, which entails a policy shift from the current focus on pollution and inefficient industrial production. In view of future consumption trends and the global convergence of consumption patterns, the characteristics of the emerging 'global consumer class' are examined, with particular focus on urban ecological footprints and carbon emissions. Furthermore, the difference between urban and rural consumption is discussed, together with opportunities for low-carbon urban development in the megacities of Asian developing countries. To conclude, the paper presents an overview of current policy measures taken in Asian countries to green economic development and realise sustainable consumption and production patterns.     

Good deposits are not enough: Mining labor productivity analysis in the copper industry in Chile and Peru 1992–2009

Chile and Peru produce almost 45% of world’s mine copper output. This situation reflects their natural endowment and mining tradition, but is also the result of development processes undertaken over the last decades. As a result, both countries multiplied its mine copper production in more than 3 times in the last 20 years. Mining labor productivity played a central role achieving these amazing growth rates. Although there is a consensus about the relevance of this variable for the mining industry, the specific factors behind labor productivity changes are not completely understood.     

THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS OF COPPER PROCESSING

Developing countries have increased their activity in smelting and refining of copper in order to retain a greater proportion of the value added and to achieve more control over production and marketing. This article examines the technology and economics of copper smelting and refining and considers the advantages and disadvantages to developing countries of increased investment in copper ore processing.
Les pays en développement ont accru leur activité dans le domaine de la fonte et du raffinage du cuivre dans le but de conserver une part plus grande de la valeur ajoutée et d'établir un contrôle plus efficace sur la production et la commercialisation de cette ressource. Cet article étudie les aspects techniques et économiques de la fonte et du raffinage du cuivre. Il compare les avantages et désavantages, pour les pays en développement, de la croissance des investissements dans le traitement du minerai de cuivre.
Los países en desarrollo han incrementado las actividades de fundición y refinado de cobre con el objeto de retener una porción mayor del valor agregado y de ejercer más control sobre la producción y el mercado. Este artículo examina la tecnología y economía de la fundición y refinado del cobre y considera las ventajas y desventajas de mayores inversiones en el procesado del mineral de cobre por los países en desarrollo.     

Predicted concentrations of biocides from antifouling paints in Visakhapatnam Harbour

The concentrations of biocides leached from antifouling coatings are monitored in most of the developed countries. However, in India and many other developing countries, there is very little data available on the concentrations of biocides in ports and harbours. The first step was to obtain the order of magnitude levels of concentrations of biocides in the marine environment of the Visakhapatnam Harbour, and the MAM-PEC (Marine Antifoulant Model to Predict Environmental Concentrations) model was used to predict these values. The Visakhapatnam Port lies on the eastern coast of India, roughly halfway between Chennai and Kolkata, and is the largest port in India. This port is a natural harbour; the long and narrow outlet to the open sea makes it a 'poorly flushed' harbour. Predicted concentrations of tributyltin (TBT), copper, dichlofluanid, seanine, irgarol, diuron, tolylfluanid, and zinc pyrithione were computed. The results of the computations indicate that the levels of these biocides are comparable to those in many western countries. This gives credence to the fact that persistence of TBT and some other biocides is a global problem that cannot be ignored.     

Pricing of Natural Gas in Developing Countries

The uncertain supply and increasing cost of petroleum products since 1973 has spurred on the development of alternative forms of energy. Natural gas is a major source of energy in over 50 developing countries. In these countries natural gas has many uses as a substitute for other fuels or as a feedstock. This paper discusses the economic concept for pricing of natural gas, in particular marginal costs, and estimates the economic cost of natural gas in developing countries under a wide range of conditions. The marginal cost of natural gas estimated for these countries is far below the border price of competing fuels. Because natural gas is in its early days of development, gas supply costs are not expected to rise in these countries within the next two decades as already proven reserves are tapped.     

Environmental issues for developing countries arising from liberalized trade in the mining industry

This review analyses some of the environmental and economic implications of current trade policies and changes in the world trading system for mineral producers and consumers. A principal factor which determines environmental performance is whether firms have the resources and capabilities to undertake innovation. We therefore place particular emphasis on the anticipated effects of liberalized trade on innovation and competitiveness at the firm level. Evidence indicates that improvements in environmental management would be expected to occur irrespective of the country hosting the investment. Due to the opening investment climate and relatively large quantities of mineral reserves, we expect these effects to be positive for many mineral producing developing countries. One difficulty which may arise is whether policy measures to promote production efficiency and develop innovation in mining and mineral processing operations could be interpreted as protectionism. The creation of new lines of credit, to promote, but not subsidize, technological and organizational innovation, may be the best way forward for developing countries .     

Ethical Analysis of the Use of GM Fish: Emerging Issues for Aquaculture Development

Improvements in production methods over the last two decades have resulted in aquaculture becoming a significant contributor to food production in many countries. Increased efficiency and production levels are off-setting unsustainable capture fishing practices and contributing to food security, particularly in a number of developing countries. The challenge for the rapidly growing aquaculture industry is to develop and apply technologies that ensure sustainable production methods that will reduce environmental damage, increase productivity across the sector, and respect the diverse social and cultural dimensions of fish farming that are observed globally. The aquaculture industry currently faces a number of technology trajectories, which include the option to commercially produce genetically modified (GM) fish. The use of genetic modification in aquaculture has the potential to contribute to increased food security and is claimed to be the next logical step for the industry. However, the potential use of these technologies raises a number of important ethical questions. Using an ethical framework, the Ethical Matrix, this paper explores a number of the ethical issues potentially raised by the use of GM technologies in aquaculture. Several key issues have been identified. These include aspects of distributive justice for producers; use of a precautionary approach in the management of environmental risk and food safety; and impacts on the welfare and intrinsic value of the fish. There is a need to conduct a comparative analysis of the full economic cycle of the use of GM fish in aquaculture production for developing countries. There is also a need to initiate an informed dialogue between stakeholders and strenuous efforts should be made to ensure the participation of producers and their representatives from developing nations. An additional concern is that any national licensing of the first generation of GM fish, i.e., in the USA, may initiate and frame an assessment cycle, mediated by the WTO, which could dominate the conditions under which the technology will be applied and regulated globally. Therefore, an integrated analysis of the technology development trajectories, in terms of international policy, IPR, and operational implications, as well as an analysis of a broader range of ethical concerns, is needed.     

Copper in India: Present and future outlook

The availability of mineral resources plays an important role in India's national economy. Copper, one of the important non-ferrous metals, has various industrial uses and demand for it is increasing in India where the inventory and production of copper, though not comparable with developed countries, shows an impressive growth rate, particularly during the last decade. With an increasing rate of industrial production envisaged in future plans copper consumption is expected to rise. Logistic curves have been used to study the potential long-term production capability under the dynamic concept of reserves and resources, with curves drawn for various estimates of total available resources. The production figures shown are not final and are subject to change due to a number of factors. This approach merely provides a method for projecting trends in future production.     

Trends in the intensity of copper use in Japan since 1960

Between 1960 and 2000, Japan's real GDP grew 620%. However, its consumption of copper increased only 345%, thanks to a 38% decline in the country's intensity of copper use. In light of concerns today over the possible impact of future economic development in China, India, and other developing countries on the long-run availability of mineral resources, this study proposes to explore the causes for this dramatic decline in the Japanese intensity of copper use.For some time, we have known that the intensity of metal use within a country depends on its level of economic development, usually measured by per capita income, as well as on technological change, long-run price trends, and other factors whose influence varies, more or less, with time. This study finds that rising per capita income has increased the intensity of copper use in Japan over the entire period examined. Moreover, this positive effect is expected to continue until per capita income—$44,830 in 2000—reaches $53,000. Thereafter, further advances will tend to reduce the intensity of copper use. Conversely, new copper-saving technologies and other time-related variables have on average reduced the intensity of copper use by 2.9% a year, an amount sufficient not only to offset the positive effects of growing per capita income but also to reduce intensity of use by 38%.