Integrating pattern-based modelling and political ecology in land-use change research: the case of Mexican dry tropics

ABSTRACT

Agricultural and extractive frontiers experiment rapid landscape transformation. Land-Use Sciences and Political Ecology are complementary approaches for analysing how landscape transformations are related to biophysical conditions, and socioeconomic, cultural and political processes developed at global, national and local scales. This study examines such relationships in a long-standing agrarian and resource frontier in southern Mexico for the 1986–2015 period. We combine insights from: (1) a quantitative land use/land cover change pattern-based model, involving a weights of evidence and cellular automata simulations, and (2) a qualitative content analysis of literature and of local actors’ perspectives. Two grand frontier processes have developed in this region: NAFTA-related agrarian transition toward intensification and the establishment of wind farms. Both were triggered by global forces and new forms of land and resources use, but mediated by national-to-local ecological, socioeconomic and political processes, producing particular landscape transformations.     

Governing intensification: the influence of state institutions on smallholder farming strategies in Calakmul,Mexico

ABSTRACT

In forest frontiers, smallholder agrarian livelihoods remain uneasily juxtaposed with conservation interests. Agricultural intensification is often considered a viable means of reconciling competing environmental and livelihood objectives given its potential to concentrate production on less land. However, intensification may have unintended consequences, including loss of resilient agricultural systems. The risks of smallholder agricultural intensification warrant a better understanding of its drivers. This study uses the case of Calakmul, Mexico, to examine the critical role of the state in intensification processes. Drawing on household surveys and key-informant interviews, it traces the linkages between state institutions and local farming practices. Statistical and qualitative analyses reveal how intensification is both incentivized and imposed by prevailing policies, the former via subsidies and the latter via regulations against field rotations. The outcome – increased external inputs and longer cultivation periods between fallows – may undermine the sustainability of smallholders’ agroecosystems, an undesirable consequence amid limited livelihood alternatives.     

The Trifinio Region: a case study of transboundary forest change in Central America

Strategic planning to increase forest cover in Central American transboundary areas of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor requires understanding land-cover and land-use change trends and drivers. We estimated forest cover change from remotely sensed land-cover and land-use classifications from 1986, 2001, and 2010, in the tri-national Trifinio Region, bordering El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. Our analysis spanned subnational, national, regional, and protected border areas. We determined correlations with direct drivers of deforestation, developing a multilevel linear regression model. Higher population density significantly correlated with deforestation; coffee, agroforestry, and pasture replaced forests. The tri-national park retained forests compared to neighboring areas, but additionality requires more research. The literature on drivers suggests similar processes and factors in other tropical regions. Forest cover governance efficacy is highly variable. Results indicate relationship between governance and forest cover though more comprehensive understanding of this complex region is needed to determine their causality.     

Developing indicators for assessing land-use sustainability in a tropical agro-ecosystem: The case of Sakaekrang watershed,Thailand

While the concept of sustainable land management is now widely accepted, there remains considerable scope for developing location-specific land-use indicators for sustainability evaluation. A study was conducted to investigate the indicators of land-use sustainability in the context of tropical agro-ecosystems using the case of Sakaekrang watershed, Thailand. The biophysical data were generated from Geographic Information Systems (GIs) and the socioeconomic data were collected through a field survey. In the light of sustainable land management objectives, a total of 32 criteria were considered in the analysis to determine land-use sustainability and identify indicators that best explain the sustainability level. About one quarter of the agricultural area in the watershed meets the sustainability threshold, indicating a substantial unstable area in the watershed. Among 11 indicators that showed a significant relationship with the computed land-use sustainability, land quality, source of farm income, and evapo transpiration were the most important.     

拟除虫菊酯杀虫剂的毒性和健康危害研究进展

在现今世界范围内,拟除虫菊酯杀虫剂已被广泛应用于防治农业病虫害以及用作室内杀虫剂,因此对人类日常生活产生重要影响。拟除虫菊酯杀虫剂的急性毒性研究已经有较多成果和进展,但对其长期慢性影响至今仍缺乏明确论证。此综述从Pub Med、EBSCO和中国知网等数据库收集了国内外已发表的、有关拟除虫菊酯杀虫剂的动物实验、人群调查和实验室检验的长期、慢性影响的典型研究论文,并从中筛选出拟除虫菊酯杀虫剂的神经毒性、生殖发育毒性、免疫毒性与肿瘤研究等方面的研究进展,综述长期接触拟除虫菊酯杀虫剂可能对人体产生的神经、生殖及免疫系统方面的危害,为进一步研究和开发无害化农药杀虫剂提供参考思路。     

On the gains of committing to inefficiency: Corruption, deforestation and low land productivity in Latin America

We present a new explanation and empirical evidence showing that rural subsidies to large farmers tend to be associated with low land productivity and excessive deforestation. We develop a lobbying model where wealthy farmers trade bribes or political contributions to government politicians in exchange for subsidies; farmers are able to tilt the terms of the bargaining game with policy makers in their favor by pre-committing to an inefficient choice of semi-fixed inputs. Government proneness to accept political contributions or bribes and its willingness to provide subsidies cause farmers to adopt inefficient modes of production as a mechanism to capture such subsidies. Our predictions are consistent with stylized facts on land use in Latin America, and suggest that subsidy schemes have been counterproductive—distorting and constraining development, and triggering excessive depletion of natural resources. We validate some of the predictions of the model through econometric analyses using a new data set for nine countries in Latin America.     

不同源类型农业非点源负荷特征研究——以新田小流域为例

以珠江三角洲北部新田小流域为研究对象,采用源类型法,在流域范围内建立林地、果园、旱地和水田四个全封闭的农业用地单元,并对四个单元出口处的径流量进行同步采样,分析COD、BOD、氨氮、总氮和总磷等污染物的负荷特征.结果表明:(1)流域地表水存在着明显非点源污染现象,不同源类型,地表径流的污染程度不同.(2)不同源类型农业非点源污染负荷强度不同,其中水田、旱地单位面积非点源负荷强度较大,果园、林地各项污染物的负荷强度相对最小.受地表扰动、施肥等人类活动影响,流域内水田、旱地是农业非点源污染发生的关键源区.(3)流域范围内,不同源类型农业非点源负荷总量不同,其中,果园各项污染物非点源负荷总量最大,其次是林地,水田、旱地非点源负荷输出总量较小,流域范围内,源面积成为影响非点源负荷总量的主要因素.(4)相应的非点源污染治理不仅是关键源区,同时应关注大面积流失区.     

Agency and structure: a grounded theory approach to explain land-use change in the Mindo and western foothills of Pichincha,Ecuador

ABSTRACT

Although life and land decisions are individual, driven by perceptions of reality, they reflect broader social processes. This research aims to understand relevant land-use change processes and the context within which land-use change occurs in the study area. For this, we employ grounded theory techniques and procedures to analyze narratives and life history interviews. Based on these narratives, we re-construct past land-use changes. Additionally, we identify structural conditions that drive change, several dimensions of change, including cultural-cognitive dimensions, and future discourses. The identified structural conditions motivate changes in concepts, actions, and practices, in land-use, and institutions, eventually leading to generational changes. Further research is needed to examine how the so-called structural conditions producing change varies in different settings and contexts. These findings can provide insight into certain patterns and knowledge that may contribute to community planning, policy design, and the conception of sustainable solutions with more grounded knowledge.     

Indirect land use change from ethanol production: the case of sugarcane expansion at the farm level on the Brazilian Cerrado

The expansion of sugarcane production in the Brazilian Cerrado has resulted in indirect land use change (ILUC), occurring when displaced land uses in one location are reallocated to another. Studies, however, usually identify ILUC at the regional or national level far from the original area of a displaced land use. This study examines the occurrence of ILUC due to sugarcane expansion for ethanol production at the farm level in the Brazilian Cerrado. It fills a gap in the literature by examining socioeconomic, policy and farm-level factors that influence ILUC at the farm level in the Brazilian Cerrado using face-to-face enumerated surveys. Results indicate that ILUC did occur at the farm (producer) scale and farmers who undertook ILUC intensified agricultural production on their farms. Results inform policymakers on how the intensification of agricultural practices may make it potentially difficult to keep protected lands out of production, reducing the environmental benefits from sugarcane-based biofuel production.     

The effects of application of agricultural wastes to firing range soil on metal accumulation in Ipomoea aquatica and soil metal bioavailability

The immobilisation of heavy metals in the soil of a 25-year-old active firing range using durian (Durio zibethinus L.) tree sawdust (DTS), coconut coir (CC) and oil palm empty fruit bunch (EFB) was investigated. The immobilisation effects were evaluated in terms of metal accumulation in water spinach (Ipomoea aquatica) and soil metal bioavailability. A pot experiment was conducted by amending the firing range soil with DTS, CC and EFB at application rates of 0%, 1% and 3% (w/w), respectively. All amendments increased the biomass yield and reduced the uptake of heavy metals in the plant tissue. Zn had the highest values of Bioconcentration Factor (BCF: 0.301–0.865) and Translocation Factor (TF: 1.056–1.883). Pb was the least-accumulated and transported metal in the plant tissues, with the BCF and TF values of 0.019–0.048 and 0.038–0.116, respectively. The bioavailable fraction of heavy metals in the firing range soil decreased following the application of the three agricultural wastes studied. DTS, CC and EFB did not cause toxicity symptoms in the water spinach over the pot experiment. Therefore, DTS, CC and EFB are considered promising immobilising agents for the remediation of metal-contaminated land.     

The neglected scent: on the marking function of urine in Lemur catta

In ring-tailed lemurs (Lemur catta) urine deposition can be combined with two different tail configurations: (i) tail held up in an evident display (urinate tail-up, UT-up); (ii) tail slightly raised to avoid its impregnation with urine (urinate tail-down, UT-down). We used both signaller- and receiver-based approaches to search for functional differences between these two kinds of urine deposition. We predicted that UT-up might be a complex signal combining olfactory and visual cues. We carried out observations and scent tests on four captive groups of ring-tailed lemurs. Group members sniffed/licked UT-up scents more frequently than UT-down ones. Moreover, UT-up showed peak levels during the mating season whereas UT-down did not. These findings suggest that urine can play a role in intra-group reproductive communication. Lemurs more frequently performed UT-up in a few drops and UT-down in streams. Recognition experiments clearly showed that individuals can discriminate between urine of their own group and urine from a foreign group (a necessary prerequisite for the use of urine in inter-group communication). The possible function of UT-up in inter-troop communication was supported by the higher frequency of this pattern along a fence separating two of the study groups. Moreover, in the presence of a dummy, the frequency of UT-up increased significantly. In conclusion, UT-up is a complex signal with multiple characteristics. By using different sensory channels, UT-up provides different types of information (location and signaller quality) and contains multiple messages directed both at group-members and neighbouring groups....to conceal this letter, the Minister had resorted to the comprehensive and sagacious expedient of not attempting to conceal it at all (from the Purloined letter E. A. Poe, 1845)     

The importance of agricultural yield elasticity for indirect land use change: a Bayesian network analysis for robust uncertainty quantification

ABSTRACT

A major barrier to realising biofuels’ climate change mitigation potential is uncertainty concerning carbon emissions from indirect land use change (ILUC). Central to this uncertainty is the extent to which yields can respond dynamically to increased demand for agricultural commodities. This study examines the elasticity of soybean and corn yields in the USA for 1990–2017 using Bayesian network models to robustly quantify uncertainty. The central finding is that a single parameter value for yield elasticity does not adequately represent the effects of technology, policy and price pressures through time. The models demonstrate the limiting role of technological progress as well as farmers’ capital investment in response to system shocks. Results suggest evaluation of parameter uncertainty alone is unlikely to capture a full range of future ILUC scenarios and reiterate the need for ILUC studies to use probabilistic approaches as standard to robustly inform climate change mitigation policies.     

挠力河流域农垦开发中居民地景观生态特征的变化

运用G IS、景观格局分析与聚落分析方法定量分析了挠力河流域在快速农垦开发中居民地分布格局的时空变化,探讨了景观格局形成的机制。景观指数分析表明近50 a来居民地面积和数目激增,居民地斑块面积、聚集度增大,表明人类对挠力河流域景观扰动持续增强。在所有背景地类中,居民地与耕地的邻接比例最高。伴随居民地和耕地迅速扩张,两者邻接比例呈上升趋势,两者相互影响越来越大。不同时期居民地扩张强度高值区分布有所不同,主要分布在早期的耕地新增区,1954—2000年挠力河流域居民地扩张高值区最终主要分布于该流域的西部与中部。虽然居民地数目和面积均激增,各居民地之间的距离亦呈缩短趋势,但居民地最近邻点指数表明,近50 a来挠力河流域居民地分布类型一直为随机分布,农垦经济仍占主导地位,人为规划比城镇发达地区薄弱。     

Relationships between exposure to polyhalogenated aromatic hydrocarbons and organochlorine pesticides and the risk for developing type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and a meta-analysis of exposures to 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD)

A systematic review was performed to evaluate the association between environmental exposures to polyhalogenated aromatic hydrocarbons (PHAHs) and organochlorine (OC) pesticides and the risk for type 2 diabetes (T2D). Searches of EMbase, Google Scholar, Medline, and Scopus were performed. Reports were included if they were original human studies whose design included a control group and if the sample size was larger than 10 participants per group. The articles were excluded if the type of diabetes was unknown or Type 1. Odds ratios (OR), 95% confidence intervals (CI), and modified Naranjo scores for the effects of environmental contaminants were determined for each study. Of the 35 eligible studies, six were included in the meta-analysis; these focused specifically on 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD). Meta-analysis of these studies showed no significant increased OR for the development of T2D from exposure to TCDD. However, subgroup analysis showed significant elevated OR for the development of T2D if exposure is repeated and accompanied by exposure to other persistent pesticides (OR?=?1.48; 1.10–1.90) but a decreased odds for T2D with exposure resulting from accidental exposure (OR?=?0.46; 0.39–0.52). Our results suggest that there are significant risks of developing T2D in populations with recurring exposures to TCDD in concert with other persistent chlorinated pesticides. A mean Naranjo score of 2.0 was determined for all 35 articles; this score was 2.5 when examining only TCDD studies and 2.1 when examining studies that looked only at T2D. Each of these Naranjo scores suggests a possible association between the prevalence of T2D and exposure to PHAHs or OC pesticides.     

The nature and significance of public exposure to arsenic: a review of its relevance to South West England

In South West England, more than two hundred years of intensive exploitation of metalliferous ore deposits, combined with the natural processes of pedogenesis from mineral-rich parent rocks, has resulted in the creation of a aignificant area of arsenic-contaminated wastes and soils. The scale of arsenic dispersion by natural and anthropogenic processes is such that 722 km² of land contains concentrations of arsenic in excess of 110 g g^–1, more than twice the maximum that might be expected in a normal soil.The general rationale for the clean-up of derelict and contaminated mining sites often includes aesthetic factors and the desirability of preventing the dispersion of contaminants beyond the site boundaries. Only in extreme cases is public health directly invoked as justification for remediation. In South West England, if arsenic constitutes a genuine threat to the public, an increased rate of site remediation would be justified. The primary purpose of this review is to establish whether or not widespread arsenic contamination (principally of soils) has any measurable effects on public health in South West England, and how this might affect current contaminated site remediation policy. The review is based on data from previous research in the region, and other relevant international studies of mining and smelting communities, and other populations exposed to elevated arsenic concentrations. The literature reviewed also includes the determination of the extent and sources of contamination, and pathways between source and man.While the contamination of potable waters in some countries has led to measurable health effects, this scenario has not yet been identified in South West England, and there is little reason to believe that significantly contaminated potable water supplies would escape detection for extended periods of time under the current monitoring regime.In relative terms (based on both globaland local data), one of the most significant links between contaminated soils and humans appears to be contaminated food stuffs. In absolute terms, such exposure is low due to the natural constraints on arsenic uptake by herbage, cereal crops and vegetables, and the food chain does not appear to have been significantly compromised in South West England. Chronic health effects are unlikely as excessive arsenic concentrations in locally grown food crops remain rare.With the problems of confounding medical and social factors, it is not surprising that studies in South West England have failed to identify chronic exposure to arsenic at very low concentrations as a significant health risk. Those studies that indicate otherwise do not stand up to close scrutiny. It appears that the number of additional deaths arising from the widespread arsenic contamination in South West England is small. The relative benefits of a costly statistical study to actually determine the number of additional deaths might be considered minimal, but one major area could benefit from further studies: the sensitivity of certain population sub-groups to environmental arsenic exposure. Of particular interest are children, for whom significant exposure to arsenic via soil ingestion may be occurring.Based on available information, there appears to be no justification for a large programme of site remediation. Resources should, however, be expended on enlightening the general public, and private and governmental organisations as regards the gap between the perceived and actual significance of arsenic contamination in South West England.To whom correspondence should be addressed.     

Assessment of the contribution of land use pattern and intensity to landscape quality: use of a landscape indicator

The objective of this research work is the evaluation of the impact of landuse pattern and intensity on landscape by means of an indicator. The method used to calculate a ‘landscape indicator’ (I_land) allows to take into account the objective as well as the subjective approach of landscape. I_land corresponds to the degree of agreement between landscape supply by farmers and landscape demand by the social groups. The supply and the demand are evaluated through four criteria: ‘diversity’, ‘upkeep’, ‘openness’ and ‘heritage’. The landscape supply is calculated from data of landscape objects (punctual, linear and spatial) for each criterion recorded at the field level. The values of the four criteria for the landscape demand are allocated by the user(s) of the indicator (decision makers, regional council, social groups…) into five classes (0–4). The value of the landscape indicator is the least favourable difference between supply and demand for the four criteria. An example of calculation of the ‘landscape indicator’ for an arable farm is given. The collection of data needs 2 h with the farmer and 2 h for a survey of the farm land.     

Surviving the change to warning colouration: density-dependent polyphenism suggests a route for the evolution of aposematism

Summary. How warning colouration first appeared remains a disputed question in evolutionary biology. A density-dependent transition from crypsis to aposematism that occurs during phase change in the desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) provides insight into the conditions under which acquiring warning colouration is adaptive. When crowded for only a few hours, solitarious locusts cease avoiding each other and actively aggregate. This occurs well before they acquire warning colouration. We show that accompanying this early behavioural gregarisation is a remarkable shift in feeding behaviour, in which solitarious insects switch from being deterred by a toxic plant alkaloid to feeding avidly upon foods containing it. A computer simulation shows how crypsis ceases to be effective as an anti-predator strategy when solitarious locusts are crowded, how chemical defence becomes essential as conspicuousness increases with local density, and how warning colouration becomes advantageous under these conditions. These findings provide empirical evidence for an adaptive route for the change from a cryptic edible phenotype to a brightly coloured toxic one.     

The role of the cloud optical thickness in the attenuation of the solar ultraviolet radiation reaching the ground: Implications to the human health impacts

Cloud optical depth, as it is derived from the King's method, is compared with that deduced from the simple two stream approximation for the greater Athens, Greece area. The results show that King's method overestimates the cloud optical thickness, in comparison to the two stream approximation. These estimations were also compared with satellite observations provided by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project. This comparison showed that there are large deviations between ground‐based and satellite observations. These deviations are probably due to the uncertainty introduced by the integration procedure of the satellite spatial analyzing resolution (distinctness). Furthermore, values of the simple scattering albedo were calculated by employing a recently proposed theoretical method and using the solar ultraviolet irradiance measurements performed at the Athens University on a routine basis. These results are of great importance for the densely populated areas like Athens, in a sense of health impacts, from enhanced incident solar ultraviolet radiation.