Are indigenous forest reserves sustainable? An analysis of present and future land-use trends in Bosawas,Nicaragua

SUMMARY

In recent years, indigenous tenure over forest lands has emerged as a means to conserve forests while recognizing indigenous rights. There is concern, however, that indigenous reserves may not be an appropriate policy tool for sustained forest conservation. Our research examined how recognition of indigenous common-property rights has controlled agricultural expansion and conserved forests in Bosawas Biosphere Reserve, Nicaragua. We used satellite imagery with empirical data gathered in the field on land-use institutions, population pressures, and land-use practices to compare whether indigenous communities under territorial management or public management are better able to (1) control the ‘fast threat’ of frontier expansion and (2) address the long-term ecological threats posed by indigenous land-use practices and institutional changes in the region. Our findings are that indigenous residents who share common-property rights over their territories are better able to control agricultural expansion than are indigenous residents living on public lands. With respect to the long-term threats to the region, a series of simulations of possible land-use pressures demonstrate that the enforcement of territorial boundaries and further development of indigenous forest management rules will prove crucial in determining land-use capacity and deforestation over the next 50 years.     

A review on historical trajectories and spatially explicit scenarios of land-use and land-cover changes in China

ABSTRACT

Land use in China has changed remarkably over the past centuries with manifold implications for sustainable development. Investigation and projection of the land-use and land-cover changes (LUCC) have therefore become critical to promote the understanding of the LUCC process and the interactions with human societies. Scientists had devoted great efforts to create, process, and interpret comprehensive historical land-use/cover datasets, and to simulate future land-use systems under different scenarios. We synthesize the literature on the historical trajectories of LUCC in China, and summarize existing efforts of scenario developments for the projection of spatially explicit LUCC. Our review therefore provides salient suggestions for future land-use change analysis.     

Effectiveness of China's National Forest Protection Program and nature reserves

There is profound interest in knowing the degree to which China's institutions are capable of protecting its natural forests and biodiversity in the face of economic and political change. China's 2 most important forest‐protection policies are its National Forest Protection Program (NFPP) and its national‐level nature reserves (NNRs). The NFPP was implemented in 2000 in response to deforestation‐caused flooding. We undertook the first national, quantitative assessment of the NFPP and NNRs to examine whether the NFPP achieved its deforestation‐reduction target and whether the NNRs deter deforestation altogether. We used MODIS data to estimate forest cover and loss across mainland China (2000–2010). We also assembled the first‐ever polygon dataset for China's forested NNRs (n = 237, 74,030 km² in 2000) and used both conventional and covariate‐matching approaches to compare deforestation rates inside and outside NNRs (2000–2010). In 2000, 1.765 million km² or 18.7% of mainland China was forested (12.3% with canopy cover of ≥70%)) or woodland (6.4% with canopy cover <70% and tree plus shrub cover ≥40%). By 2010, 480,203 km² of forest and woodland had been lost, an annual deforestation rate of 2.7%. Forest‐only loss was 127,473 km² (1.05% annually). In the NFPP provinces, the forest‐only loss rate was 0.62%, which was 3.3 times lower than in the non‐NFPP provinces. Moreover, the Landsat data suggest that these loss rates are overestimates due to large MODIS pixel size. Thus, China appears to have achieved, and even exceeded, its target of reducing deforestation to 1.1% annually in the NFPP provinces. About two‐thirds of China's NNRs were effective in protecting forest cover (prevented loss 4073 km² unmatched approach; 3148 km² matched approach), and within‐NNR deforestation rates were higher in provinces with higher overall deforestation. Our results indicate that China's existing institutions can protect domestic forest cover.     

Invisible territory: mapping land-use change and power in the Peruvian Amazon

ABSTRACT

This paper follows the evolution of the discourse of agricultural productivity, from its inception in colonial land-use mapping to current land-use changes, using a case study of the expansion of an oil palm company onto the territory of an indigenous community in the Peruvian Amazon that caused large-scale deforestation. Drawing on analytical tools of political ecology and insights from historical geographythis paper shows how current soil and land classification, forest usufruct rules, and forest designations under the 2011 Forest and Wildlife law stem from a colonial discourse of agricultural productivity. This discourse excludes other forms of land-use, such as indigenous forest management, and the identities and relationships bound up in those. This research contributes to an understanding of how the processes that seek to quantify and determine land-use change are historically embedded in western ideas of agricultural productivity.     

Impacts of land use and land cover change on the interactions among multiple soil-dependent ecosystem services (case study: Jiroft plain,Iran)

The spatial and temporal distribution pattern is an outstanding feature of the relationship among ecosystem services (ESs) that explains links between human activities and disturbed chemical composition of ecosystems. This study investigated the spatiotemporal variation of land use/cover changes (LUCC) and quantifies the change in four essential ecosystem services with an emphasis on soil (nutrient delivery ratio, carbon storage, crop production, and water yield) and their relationships in the Jiroft plain, Iran, during 1996–2016 through analytical tools including Land Change Modeler, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoff. During the 20-year concentrate period, there was a considerable overall gain in cropland (5396 km²) and urban (1787 km²), loss of unused land (5692 km²), water (2088 km²), and forest (1083 km²). As a result of LUCC, while crop production and nutrient delivery ratio showed a rising trend, overall carbon storage and water yield decreased. The spatiotemporal trade-off between carbon storage and crop production, the temporal trade-off between crop production and water yield, and synergy between water yield and crop production were widespread in Jiroft plain. These results showed that the interaction among ESs mutates over time and can be changed under planning and policies. This study will enrich the research of the geographical distribution of ESs interaction in dryland ecosystems to provide practical ecosystem management under local conditions.

     

Participatory Bayesian network modeling to understand driving factors of land-use change decisions: insights from two case studies in northeast Madagascar

ABSTRACT

Forest frontiers worldwide reveal trade-offs that are key in mitigating global change. In the forest frontiers of northeast Madagascar, land-use changes result from decisions made by smallholder farmers. In the past, subsistence needs led to increasing shifting cultivation, resulting in forest degradation and deforestation. This study focuses on investigating the role of locally determined factors in land-use change decisions in the forest frontier context. Therefore, we developed a Bayesian network-based land-use decision model that represents the causalities between factors influencing land-use decisions and takes into account local decision-makers’ knowledge. The approach is applied in two comparative case studies in northeast Madagascar. Results show that farmers mostly aim at extending the cultivation of cash crops. These results and the causal mechanisms disentangled for the forest frontier of northeast Madagascar help understand change mechanisms and hence, support decision-making to attain the Sustainable Development Goals.     

Considerations about the land use and conversion trends in the savanna environments of Central Brazil under a geomorphological perspective

Assuming that the landscape physiographic characteristics strongly determine the occurrence of land use and land cover types, this study assessed the distribution patterns of natural and converted classes in relation to the major geomorphological units and slope ranges in the central area of continuous savanna formations in Brazil (Cerrado biome), the country’s most important region for cattle ranching and intensive commodity crops. Our results showed that 93% of the agriculture activities are concentrated at slopes of less than 5°, mostly associated to old regional planation surfaces (RPSs). Considering the amount of remnant vegetation and the occupation and land use deterministic trends, we estimated that between 58,041 km² and 79,677 km² of conversions may occur in the near future. If the priority areas for biodiversity conservation are properly enforced and effectively incorporated into the system of fully protected areas and areas of sustainable use, a decrease of approximately 24% in the expected potential deforestation could be achieved.     

Exploring long-term land cover changes in an urban region of southern Europe

This paper addresses two important issues for large Mediterranean city regions: the differential impact of compact urban ‘growth’ and low-density ‘sprawl’ on land cover changes (LCCs), and their final effect on changing land cover relationships (LCRs). The urban expansion of Rome (Italy) during the last 50 years and the related LCCs were investigated as a paradigmatic example of compact versus dispersed urban development. LCCs were assessed over 5 years (1960, 1974, 1990, 2000, 2006) by analysing diachronically the distribution of 12 land cover categories derived from digital land cover maps covering the entire Nuts-3 prefecture of Rome (5353 km²). LCRs were studied using multi-way data analysis. LCCs were found to have relative differences during ‘growth’ (1960–1990) and ‘sprawl’ (1990–2006) phases. Conversion to urban land uses concentrated in the 1960s and 1970s at the urban fringe, while expanding progressively far from the city in the 1990s and 2000s. During the ‘growth’ phase, the land cover classes with the highest probability of being converted to urban uses were arable lands, annual crops, vineyards and pastures. During the ‘sprawl’ phase, olive groves, orchards and forest surfaces also decreased due to the development of low-density built-up areas and infrastructure. Planning suggestions aimed at mitigating the alteration of the rural landscape through sprawl conditions are discussed.     

The Trifinio Region: a case study of transboundary forest change in Central America

Strategic planning to increase forest cover in Central American transboundary areas of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor requires understanding land-cover and land-use change trends and drivers. We estimated forest cover change from remotely sensed land-cover and land-use classifications from 1986, 2001, and 2010, in the tri-national Trifinio Region, bordering El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. Our analysis spanned subnational, national, regional, and protected border areas. We determined correlations with direct drivers of deforestation, developing a multilevel linear regression model. Higher population density significantly correlated with deforestation; coffee, agroforestry, and pasture replaced forests. The tri-national park retained forests compared to neighboring areas, but additionality requires more research. The literature on drivers suggests similar processes and factors in other tropical regions. Forest cover governance efficacy is highly variable. Results indicate relationship between governance and forest cover though more comprehensive understanding of this complex region is needed to determine their causality.     

Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km² around Bonga and 3000 km² in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques     

Too small to count? Making Land Use Transformations in Chiquitano communities of San Ignacio de Velasco,East Bolivia,visible

ABSTRACT

The Santa Cruz lowlands, east Bolivia, are one of South America’s most dynamic agricultural frontiers. In the Chiquitania, bordering Brazil, San Ignacio de Velasco was in 2017 ranked first nationally in terms of deforestation. There, two deforestation fronts meet with mechanized agriculture expanding from the West and South and cattle ranching from the East. Chiquitano communities are demographically dominant locally but often face land scarcity. Because of their comparatively low impact on forest vegetation, they are not well represented in broad-scale quantitative Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) studies. Based on an empirical, human geographical approach, this paper investigates the transformation of the local indigenous productive matrix, the associated land-use patterns and potential socio-ecological implications. The overall aim is to bear witness to the rapid and profound reconfiguration of traditional livelihoods with their integration in the market economy and to highlight the significance of micro-scale LULC-processes at global scale.     

A confirmation of the indirect impact of sugarcane on deforestation in the Amazon

A widely discussed assumption that the expansion of sugarcane indirectly contributes to deforestation in Brazil has been backed statistically by only a handful of studies. The present research measures the indirect effect of sugarcane in Brazil’s frontier counties as a weighted summation of changes in sugarcane area in agricultural (non-frontier) counties, where weights are constructed using road distances and the bandwidth that minimizes overall model error. In addition to economic variables, indirect effect variables are employed to create a model that explains deforestation. Parameters are estimated following fixed-effects methodology. The results reveal that sugarcane indirectly contributed to deforestation in Brazil during the period from 2002 to 2012. The effect was estimated to be sizeable; in particular, 16.3 thousand km² of forest was cut by economic actors displaced by expanding sugarcane plantations. This figure constitutes 12.2% of deforestation in Brazil from 2002 to 2012 and is equivalent to 189.4 million Mg of carbon emissions.     

Forest cover dynamics in the Selva Maya of Central and Southern Quintana Roo,Mexico: deforestation or degradation?

ABSTRACT

Forest cover dynamics (1993-2018) was assessed in two regions on the Yucatan Peninsula: Zona Maya (ZM), 67% indigenous with shifting cultivation and community forestry; and Bacalar–Rio Hondo (BRH), mainly commercial agriculture and pastureland. Degradation (12,915 ha y^?1) exceeded deforestation (5882 ha y^?1) and was worse in BRH. In BRH there was a net forest loss (?1.6% y^?1) associated with pastureland and commercial agriculture. In ZM, mature forest recovery (1.4% y^?1) and dynamic forest cover (continuous loss and gain) were associated with shifting cultivation. Changes were more intense during 2011–2018 and gains of mature forest in ZM and deforested areas in BRH targeted secondary vegetation. Fragments of mature and secondary vegetation decreased, and connectivity improved in ZM, but opposite trends occurred in BRH. Reporting and monitoring deforestation using Global Forest Watch data is inadequate since 62% of forest cover loss represent degrading or recovering forest cover.     

Forests in the time of peace

ABSTRACT

The signing of Colombia’s peace agreement in 2016 signaled the end of a decades-long war between the government and the FARC (Las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia), but also an emerging assault against the country’s forests. This article aims to understand the interactions between forests and peace. In doing so, it traces landscape transformations of deforestation and possibilities for making landscapes livable in the midst of disturbance. Drawing on field research, including interviews and participant observation carried out in Colombia from 2016 to 2018, it reveals how deforestation is driven by ongoing colonization and land grabbing, mostly dedicated to extensive cattle ranching, coca cultivation, and campesinos’ transition to ‘licit’ agricultural alternatives. The article also shows how emerging coordination among farmers and forests following forest disturbance contributes to an interpretation of peace in which forests are integral. The article concludes with a call to incorporate forests in the construction of peace.     

Industrial development and land use/cover change and their effects on local environment: a case study of Changshu in eastern coastal China

The interactions among industrial development, land use/cover change (LUCC), and environmental effects in Changshu in the eastern coastal China were analyzed using high-resolution Landsat TM data in 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2006, socio-economic data and water environmental quality monitoring data from research institutes and governmental departments. Three phases of industrial development in Changshu were examined (i.e., the three periods of 1990 to 1995, 1995 to 2000, and 2000 to 2006). Besides industrial development and rapid urbanization, land use/cover in Changshu had changed drastically from 1990 to 2006. This change was characterized by major replacements of farmland by urban and rural settlements, artificial ponds, forested and constructed land. Industrialization, urbanization, agricultural structure adjustment, and rural housing construction were the major socio-economic driving forces of LUCC in Changshu. In addition, the annual value of ecosystem services in Changshu decreased slightly during 1990–2000, but increased significantly during 2000–2006. Nevertheless, the local environmental quality in Changshu, especially in rural areas, has not yet been improved significantly. Thus, this paper suggests an increased attention to fully realize the role of land supply in adjustment of environment-friendly industrial structure and urban-rural spatial restructuring, and translating the land management and environmental protection policies into an optimized industrial distribution and land-use pattern.     

Quantifying inconsistencies in old cadastral maps and their impact on land-use reconstructions

ABSTRACT

Old cadastral maps represent a historical reference dataset for long-term land-use reconstructions. This study presents identification of inconsistencies in the nineteenth century Franziscean cadastre, one of the largest sets of old cadastral maps worldwide, by comparing three versions of the maps and written documents created in the same period. We identified all parcels and their land-use in the four sub-sources in six study areas. The overall share of inconsistencies among 5 771 identified parcels is 7.4%, with the biggest share of inconsistency in agroforestry and forestry classes. The most frequent inconsistencies are of ‘Not differentiable land use’ (n = 212) and ‘Different land-use’ categories across the sub-sources (n = 113). We conclude that the frequency of uncertainties in old cadastral maps may limit the validity of historical land-use reconstructions, affecting the eventual restoration and management efforts based on such data. We provide a summary for the use of Franziscean cadastre.     

Impacts of vineyard area dynamics on soil erosion in a Mediterranean catchment (1950-2011)

The Mediterranean basin has undergone widespread land cover change. Urbanization of coastal areas, land abandonment of steeper slopes, and agricultural intensification in alluvial plains are recurrent themes. The objective of this study was to examine how vineyard land cover changes have affected agricultural soil erosion in a 50 year period (1950–2011). The study area covers a 235 km² catchment located near the Gulf of St Tropez. Aerial photographs were used to map land cover in 1950, 1982, 2003 and 2011, and the RUSLE soil erosion model was run to estimate soil erosion.

Between 1950 and 2011, vineyard went from about 2,426 ha to 1,561 ha. Mean soil erosion increased as vineyard slopes became steeper (11.8 T ha^?1, 13.2 T ha^?1, 14.4 T ha^?1 and 13.5 T ha^?1 for 1950, 1982, 2003 and 2011). Total erosion decreased after 1982: 28,621 T y^?1 in 1950, 29,030 T y^?1 in 1982, 22,848 T y^?1 in 2003, and 21,074 T y^?1 in 2011. Total soil loss in 2011 is about 75% of values in 1950–1982, so impacts on water pollution and channel dredging have evolved positively over time.     

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) projects: lessons for future policy design and implementation

In response to the pressing global challenges of climate change, initiatives under the auspices of ‘reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation’ (REDD) have been implemented in over 30 developing and least-developed countries since 2005. The initiatives cover nearly every significant and vulnerable forest ecosystem worldwide. In this study we review six representative initiatives, two each from Africa, Asia and Latin America. Strength, weakness, opportunity and threat analysis is done to evaluate each initiative's policy framework, design, implementation and results thus far. The main policy and project implementation factors that appear to lead to effective and successful REDD project outcomes include having clearly formulated project design; governance, land tenure rights and capacity; equity and transparency; indigenous peoples' rights and knowledge; local–international coordination; and enhancing local and institutional capacities. Based on these findings, we provide recommendations for future REDD policy action and project implementation to make it work for the poor and achieve its intended goals.     

Land-use planning of Minoo Island,Iran, towards sustainable land-use management

Land-use planning is one aspect of sustainable development that determines the integrity of socioeconomic and ecological nuance. Land evaluation is an approach to sustainable land-use planning, which predicts the capability of the land-use system. This means that a specific land area should be under specific use, considering certain factors and characteristics of the land and its location. In other words, lack of proper information on land capability and rational and irrational use of land leads to destruction of land resources. This paper discusses the findings of ecological and socioeconomic resource issues for Minoo Island and the surrounded zone. The study covers an area of about 172km² in southwest Iran. To establish environmental unit maps, digital layer maps of the soil texture were overlapped. The study empirically established that the area has the capability to accommodate ‘levels two’ urban and industrial development. Moreover, Minoo Island is considered to have potential for conservation and ecotourism, with a 60% potentiality for dryland farming.     

Pressure cookers or pressure valves: Do roads lead to deforestation in China?

The effect of roads on forests is ambiguous. Many studies conclude that building and upgrading roads increases pressure on forests but some find that new and better roads may reduce the rate of deforestation. In this paper we use satellite remote sensing images of forest cover in Jiangxi Province, China, to test whether the existence and the size of roads (ranging from expressways to tertiary roads) in 1995 affected the level of forest cover in 2000 or the rate of change between 1995 and 2000. To account for road access for each of our 1 km² (“pixel”) units of forest cover we measure whether or not and what type of roads penetrate the “watershed” in which the pixel lies. These watersheds allow more plausible measures of accessibility than do traditional “crowfly” distance measures that ignore topography. To account for possible confounding we also use 12 additional covariates: geographic and climatic variables (e.g., elevation, slope, rainfall, temperature, soil properties); demographic and economic variables (e.g., local population and GDP per square kilometer); and distance variables (e.g., distance to the nearest provincial capital). Although simple univariate OLS regressions show that forest levels are lower and deforestation rates higher either when there is a road, or when there is a higher quality road, these results are not robust. Controlling for all of the covariates and also using recently developed covariate matching techniques to estimate treatment effects, we find that roads in China’s Jiangxi Province can most safely be described as having no impact on the level of forests and no impact on the rate of deforestation.