Framing climate uncertainty: socio-economic and climate scenarios in vulnerability and adaptation assessments

Scenarios have become a powerful tool in integrated assessment and policy analysis for climate change. Socio-economic and climate scenarios are often combined to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities across different sectors and to inform risk management strategies. Such combinations of scenarios can also play an important role in enabling the interaction between experts and other stakeholders, framing issues and providing a means for making explicit and dealing with uncertainties. Drawing on experience with the application of scenarios to climate change assessments in recent Dutch research, the paper argues that scenario approaches need to be matched to the frames of stakeholders who are situated in specific decision contexts. Differentiated approaches (top-down, bottom-up and interactive) are needed to address the different frames and decision-making contexts of stakeholders. A framework is proposed to map scenarios and decision contexts onto two dimensions: the spatial scale of the context and the starting point of approach used in scenario development (top-down, bottom-up or incident-driven). Future climate and socio-economic scenario development will be shaped by the need to become better aligned with multiple interacting uncertainties salient to stakeholders.     

A comparative review for understanding elite interest and climate change policy in China

China’s climate change policy has rapidly evolved from one of neglect to necessity with sinologists drawing on a wide range of theories in trying to explain this shift. The rising influence of citizens' movements coupled with international pressure are often cited as significant drivers behind the government’s evolving climate change strategy. But can the influence of public pressure and international lobbying offer a complete explanation for the government’s dramatic policy changes? In this article, we advance theoretical pluralism where three contending schools of thought are made complementary to offer distinct explanations for understanding the mechanisms and rationale for Beijing’s elite-driven climate change policy. In brief, by bridging three separate theoretical streams including rational choice theory, authoritarian environmentalism and advocacy coalition framework, we show that the interests of elites in China’s upper political echelon are the driving force behind the country’s climate change policy.     

Spatially differentiated management-revised discharge scenarios for an integrated analysis of multi-realisation climate and land use scenarios for the Elbe River basin

A spatially differentiated, management-revised projection of natural water availability up to 2053 was requested for a basin-wide scenario study about the impact of global change in the Elbe River basin. Detailed discharge and weather information of the recent years 1951–2003 were available for model calibration and validation. However, the straightforward “classic” approach of calibrating a hydrological model on observed data and running it with a climate scenario could not be taken, because most observed river runoffs in Central Europe are modified by human management. This paper reports how the problem was addressed and how a major projection bias could be avoided. The eco-hydrological model SWIM was set up to simulate the discharge dynamics on a daily time step. The simulation area of 134,890?km2 was divided into 2,278 sub-basins that were subdivided into more than 47,500 homogeneous landscape units (hydrotopes). For each hydrotope, plant growth and water fluxes were simulated while river routing calculation was based on the sub-basin structure. The groundwater module of SWIM had to be extended for accurate modelling of low flow periods. After basin-scale model calibration and revisions for known effects of lignite mining and water management, evapotranspiration and groundwater dynamics were adjusted individually for more than 100 sub-areas largely covering the entire area. A quasi-natural hydrograph was finally derived for each sub-area taking into account management data for the years 2002 (extremely wet) and 2003 (extremely dry). The validated model was used to access the effect of two climate change scenarios consisting of 100 realisations each and resembling temperature increases of 2 and 3?K, respectively. Additionally, four different land use scenarios were considered. In all scenario projections, discharge decreases strongly: The observed average discharge rate in the reference period 1961–1990 is 171?mm/a, and the scenario projections for the middle of the twenty-first century give 91–110?mm/a, mainly depending on the climate scenario. The area-averaged evapotranspiration increases only marginally within the scenario period, e.g., from about 570 to about 580?mm/a for the temperature increase of 2?K, while potential evapotranspiration increases considerably from about 780 to more than 900?mm/a. Both discharge and evapotranspiration changes vary strongly within the basin, correlating with elevation. The runoff coefficient that globally decreases from 0.244 to 0.160 in the 2?K scenario is locally governed primarily by land use; 68% of the variance of the decreases can be attributed to this factor.     

Participatory scenarios as a tool to link science and policy on food security under climate change in East Africa

How effective are multi-stakeholder scenarios-building processes to bring diverse actors together and create a policy-making tool to support sustainable development and promote food security in the developing world under climate change? The effectiveness of a participatory scenario development process highlights the importance of “boundary work” that links actors and organizations involved in generating knowledge on the one hand, and practitioners and policymakers who take actions based on that knowledge on the other. This study reports on the application of criteria for effective boundary work to a multi-stakeholder scenarios process in East Africa that brought together a range of regional agriculture and food systems actors. This analysis has enabled us to evaluate the extent to which these scenarios were seen by the different actors as credible, legitimate and salient, and thus more likely to be useful. The analysis has shown gaps and opportunities for improvement on these criteria, such as the quantification of scenarios, attention to translating and communicating the results through various channels and new approaches to enable a more inclusive and diverse group of participants. We conclude that applying boundary work criteria to multi-stakeholder scenarios processes can do much to increase the likelihood of developing sustainable development and food security policies that are more appropriate.     

Resources and international climate change policy gridlock

Few other policy zones are as complex as the issue of climate change.If the more pessimistic projections of climate change doom are correct,then the failure to address the issue is likely to be catastrophic and irreversible.The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted the potential extinction of many species and that the existence of small-island and other vulnerable countries will be threatened if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue.Climate change is a transboundary problem and requires unprecedented levels of cooperation between states and serious and sustained responses from major emitters.However,the growing demand and consumption of natural resources for continued energy security and cornucopian economic growth have undermined the outcomes of international climate change negotiations.It is argued here that there is a strong connection between the major emitters’positions at United Nations’climate talks,their possessions,dependence and consumption of natural resources,and the continued undermining of international climate change policy for unsustainable growth.This paper assesses the resource politics of the US,China,India,Canada,Russia,and Saudi Arabia and their positions at climate talks to show the link between lack of climate change policy progress and the positions of these main players.     

Glacier response to current climate change and future scenarios in the northwestern Italian Alps

We analyze longtime series of annual snout positions of several valley glaciers in the northwestern Italian Alps, together with a high-resolution gridded dataset of temperature and precipitation available for the last 50 years. Glacier snout fluctuations are on average negative during this time span, albeit with a period of glacier advance between about 1970 and 1990. To determine which climatic variables best correlate with glacier snout fluctuations, we consider a large set of seasonal predictors, based on our climatic dataset, and determine the most significant drivers by a stepwise regression technique. This in-depth screening indicates that the average glacier snout fluctuations strongly respond to summer temperature and winter precipitation variations, with a delay of 5 and 10 year, respectively. Snout fluctuations display also a significant (albeit weak) response to concurrent (same year) spring temperature and precipitation conditions. A linear regressive model based on these four climatic variables explains up to 93 % of the variance, which becomes 89 % when only the two delayed variables are taken into account. When employed for out-of-sample projections, the empirical model displays high prediction skill, and it is thus used to estimate the average glacier response to different climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5, A1B), using both global and regional climate models. In all cases, glacier snout fluctuations display a negative trend, and the glaciers of this region display an accelerated retreat, leading to a further regression of the snout position. By 2050, the retreat is estimated to be between about 300 and 400 m with respect to the current position. Glacier regression is more intense for the RCP8.5 and A1B scenarios, as it could be expected from the higher severity of these emission pathways.     

Projections of industrial water withdrawal under shared socioeconomic pathways and climate mitigation scenarios

We estimated global future industrial water withdrawal (IWW) by considering socioeconomic driving forces, climate mitigation, and technological improvements, and by using the output of the Asia–Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model. We carried out this estimation in three steps. First, we developed a sector- and region-specific regression model for IWW. The model utilized and analyzed cross-country panel data using historical statistics of IWW for 10 sectors and 42 countries. Second, we estimated historical IWW by applying a regression model. Third, we projected future IWW from the output of AIM/CGE. For future projections, we considered and included multiple socioeconomic assumptions, namely different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) with and without climate mitigation policy. In all of the baseline scenarios, IWW was projected to increase throughout the twenty-first century, but growth through the latter half of the century is likely to be modest mainly due to the effects of decreased water use intensity. The projections for global total IWW ranged from 461 to 1,560 km³/year in 2050 and from 196 to 1,463 km³/year in 2100. The effects of climate mitigation on IWW were both negative and positive, depending on the SSPs. We attributed differences among scenarios to the balance between the choices of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and renewable energy. A smaller share of CCS was accompanied by a larger share of non-thermal renewable energy, which requires a smaller amount of water withdrawal per unit of energy production. Renewable energy is, therefore, less water intensive than thermal power with CCS with regard to decarbonizing the power system.     

Impact of climate warming upon the fish assemblages of the Portuguese coast under different scenarios

Impact of sea-surface warming upon the fish assemblages of the Portuguese coast was assessed under two scenarios, the A2 and the B2 scenarios (Special Report on Emission Scenarios), which when coupled with a regional circulation model HadRM3 predict 1 and 2°C of sea-surface warming until the year 2100. Species richness increased in the Portuguese coast. In both scenarios, there was a latitudinal gradient in the amount of lost and gained species, increasing from north to south. An anomaly in the latitudinal gradient of species richness was detected in the southernmost area, which presented the lowest species richness of all areas, in the A2 scenario, and appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Very few species were totally eliminated from Portuguese waters. For the Portuguese coast as a whole, there were more new than lost species, in both scenarios. Most of the new species were commercially important species, in the majority subtropical in the north and tropical in the south, mainly demersal and reef-associated. Reef-associated species also increased in relative importance. A commercial opportunity for fisheries may arise from climate warming, since most of the new species were commercial species and not many commercial species were lost. An increasing gradient from north to south was detected in the colonization of new species of herbivores, planktivores, and omnivores, as well as lower mean trophic level, which might have consequences for the future of trophic webs.     

The emergence of climate change adaptation as a policy field: the case of England

Attention toward climate adaptation has been growing among governments over the past decade. In the European Union (EU) alone, nine countries have national plans for adaptation (with more in preparation), there are some 30 sub-national plans, and every Member State has policies to address adaptation. Given the recent attention given toward this subject a question that arises is: can climate change adaptation be considered a policy field? As a unit of analysis, policy fields are widely studied in the social sciences. However, the definition of policy fields such as environmental policy or agricultural policy is taken for granted. Oddly for such a common concept, very little attention is paid to what policy fields are in and of themselves or how they can be identified. Given these shortcomings, this article first attempts to fill this gap by theoretically defining what a policy field is by identifying and assigning their characteristics and dynamics. Based upon a literature review, it shows that policy fields are three-dimensional entities comprised of substantive authority, institutional order, and substantive expertise. The second task of this article is to apply this definition to adaptation policy activity in England and determine whether adaptation can be considered a policy field there.     

Synergistic vulnerabilities: climate variability and fire management policy increase farming challenges in southeastern Mexico

Agricultural fire for land preparation is central in the livelihoods of subsistence farmers practicing shifting cultivation. Achieving a good agricultural burn, one in which the biomass is thoroughly consumed within the chosen area, depends on specific weather conditions. Fire use decisions are also shaped by institutions that define the timing and rules for fire use but also constrain the alternatives and shape adaptive capacities. Global and regional climate changes interact with the institutional framing of fire management affecting local fire use and burn outcomes. These effects are documented and analyzed to suggest adaptations to existing governance systems. We examined subsistence farmers’ socio-ecological vulnerability in the Calakmul municipality, located in southeastern Mexico. Using interviews with farmers and government agents, as well as participatory mapping and observation of agricultural burns, we studied fire management knowledge, practices and burn outcomes. Our results describe a continuum of burn outcomes covering good agricultural burns, uncontrolled burns leading to wildfires and “malquemados” literally poorly burned areas. Malquemados represent unsuccessful combustion associated with excess moisture that results in scorched vegetation. We discuss how unexpected early rains trigger effects that cascade through space and the ecological, economic and cultural domains. We argue that fire management has been historically approached from a conservation standpoint yet agricultural fire use and wildfire prevention should also be addressed from a rural development perspective. This shift in fire management would lead to the proper inclusion of the entire array of burn outcomes in studies and policies addressing farmers’ vulnerability amplified by synergistic effects between climate variability and institutional change.     

Regionalization of climate scenarios impacts on maize production and the role of cultivar and planting date as an adaptation strategy

Understanding climate change and its impacts on crops is crucial to determine adaptation strategies. Simulations of climate change impacts on agricultural systems are often run for individual sites. Nevertheless, the scaling up of crop model results can bring a more complete picture, providing better inputs for the decision-making process. The objective of this paper was to present a procedure to assess the regional impacts of climate scenarios on maize production, as well as the effect of crop cultivars and planting dates as an adaptation strategy. The focus region is Santa Catarina State, Brazil. The identification of agricultural areas cultivated with annual crops was done for the whole state, followed by the coupling of soil and weather information necessary for the crop modeling procedure (using crop model and regional circulation models). The impact on maize yields, so as the effect of adaptation strategies, was calculated for the 2012–2040 period assuming different maize cultivars and planting dates. Results showed that the exclusion of non-agricultural areas allowed the crop model to correctly simulate local and regional production. Simulations run without adaptation strategies for the 2012–2040 period showed reductions of 11.5–13.5 % in total maize production, depending on the cultivar. By using the best cultivar for each agricultural area, total state production was increased by 6 %; when using both adaptation strategies—cultivar and best planting date—total production increased by 15 %. This analysis showed that cultivar and planting date are feasible adaptation strategies to mitigate deleterious effects of climate scenarios, and crop models can be successfully used for regional assessments.     

Changing air quality in Delhi,India: determinants,trends, and policy implications

Air pollution is a major environmental problem in urban areas worldwide. Delhi, the capital city of India, is no exception to the universal pattern of deteriorating urban air quality with concentration of pollutants being well above the recommended WHO levels. The magnitude and urgency of the problem as a global environmental issue needs a systematic understanding of the potential causes of pollution and their contribution to air quality. In the present study, ambient air quality data (1987–2006) of SO₂, NO₂, SPM, and RSPM were analyzed to asses the changing air quality in the study area and to evaluate the effect of measures taken to control it. The primary data were collected from 1,583 households to examine the relationship between outdoor and indoor pollution level. Based on the data, the current study concludes that despite the implementation of different pollution-controlling measures, the pollutants, especially the particulate pollutants, were well above the standard limits set by CPCB. Integration between technological and social approach of urban planning is required to mitigate and manage urban environmental problems in sustainable manner.     

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: scenarios for integrated assessment

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors.

Dangerous levels of climate change for agricultural production in China

There are increasing attempts to define the measures of ‘dangerous anthropogenic inference with the climate system’ in context of Article 2 of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, due to its linkage to goals for stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. The criteria for identifying dangerous anthropogenic interference may be characterized in terms of the consequences of climate change. In this study, we use the water stress index (WSI) and agricultural net primary production (NPP) as indictors to assess where and when there might be dangerous effects arising from the projected climate changes for Chinese agricultural production. The results showed that based on HadCM3-based climate change scenarios, the region between the North China Plain and Northeast China Plain (34.25–47.75°N, 110.25–126.25°E) would be vulnerable to the projected climate change. The analyses on inter-annual variability showed that the agricultural water resources conditions would fluctuate through the period of 2001–2080 in the region under IPCC SRES A2 scenario, with the period of 2021–2040 as critical drought period. Agricultural NPP is projected to have a general increasing trend through the period of 2001–2080; however, it could decrease during the period of 2005–2035 in the region under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario, and during the period of 2025–2035 under IPCC SRES B2 scenario. Generally, while projected climate change could bring some potentially improved conditions for Chinese agriculture, it could also bring some critical adverse changes in water resources, which would affect the overall outcome. At this stage, while we have identified certain risks and established the general shape of the damage curve expressed as a function of global mean temperature increase, more works are needed to identify specific changes which could be dangerous for food security in China. Therefore, there is a need for the development of more integrated assessment models, which include social-economic, agricultural production and food trade modules, to help identify thresholds for impacts in further studies.