Mediterranean forests,land use and climate change: a social-ecological perspective

Regional Environmental Change - Mediterranean forests are found in the Mediterranean basin, California, the South African Cape Province, South and southwestern Australia and parts of Central Chile....     

Leadership within regional climate change adaptation networks: the case of climate adaptation officers in Northern Hesse,Germany

In the climate adaptation literature, leadership tends to be an understudied factor, although it may be crucial for regional adaptation governance. This article shows how leadership can be usefully conceptualized and operationalized within regional governance networks dealing with climate adaptation. It applies an integrative framework inspired by complexity leadership theory, distinguishing several leadership functions to enhance the adaptive capacity of regional networks. We focus on one specific institutional innovation, appointed climate adaptation officers, who seek to connect science and governance practice, and to mainstream climate adaptation. Our question is twofold: What is the potential of climate adaptation officers to advance the adaptation agenda and to what extent did their establishment and working practice mirror the various leadership functions needed to raise the adaptive capacity of the regional network they operated in? The integrative leadership framework structures the analysis of climate adaptation officers forming part of a government-funded project seeking to enhance adaptation to climate variability in the central German region of Northern Hesse. The data consist of interviews with scientists and regional authority employees and project documentation including an evaluation. We find that climate adaptation officers raised awareness for climate adaptation and helped to shape and implement a number of projects within the overall KLIMZUG programme, highlighting impeding and enabling factors. The process of setting up this institutional innovation involved all forms of leadership functions and is an example of vertical mainstreaming. Its operation involved most clearly enabling and connective leadership functions and is an example of horizontal mainstreaming.     

Implications of climate change in sustained agricultural productivity in South Asia

One of the targets of the United Nations ‘Millennium Development Goals’ adopted in 2000 is to cut in half the number of people who are suffering from hunger between 1990 and 2015. However, crop yield growth has slowed down in much of the world because of declining investments in agricultural research, irrigation, and rural infrastructure and increasing water scarcity. New challenges to food security are posed by accelerated climatic change. Considerable uncertainties remain as to when, where and how climate change will affect agricultural production. Even less is known about how climate change might influence other aspects that determine food security, such as accessibility of food for various societal groups and the stability of food supply. This paper presents the likely impacts of thermal and hydrological stresses as a consequence of projected climate change in the future potential agriculture productivity in South Asia based on the crop simulation studies with a view to identify critical climate thresholds for sustained food productivity in the region. The study suggests that, on an aggregate level, there might not be a significant impact of global warming on food production of South Asia in the short term (<2°C; until 2020s), provided water for irrigation is available and agricultural pests could be kept under control. The increasing frequency of droughts and floods would, however, continue to seriously disrupt food supplies on year to year basis. In long term (2050s and beyond), productivity of Kharif crops would decline due to increased climate variability and pest incidence and virulence. Production of Rabi crops is likely to be more seriously threatened in response to 2°C warming. The net cereal production in South Asia is projected to decline at least between 4 and 10% under the most conservative climate change projections (a regional warming of 3°C) by the end of this century. In terms of the reference to UNFCCC Article 2 on dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the climate system, the critical threshold for sustained food productivity in South Asia appears to be a rise in surface air temperature of ~2°C and a marginal decline in water availability for irrigation or decrease in rainfall during the cropping season.     

The impact of climate changes on mass events in China

There is an increasing number of “mass events” in mainland China. My study extends the current studies to the context of China and tries to examine the potential impacts of climate changes on human conflicts in China. The results suggest a strong linkage between the deviation of monthly mean temperature from the historical mean and the number of mass events in a province. If the current trend of warming persists, in the next 6–8 decades, the number of mass events in China will increase by over 8.8%.     

The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany,the UK and Ireland: a simulation study

We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country. In all three countries, climate change would first reduce the number of international arrivals—as Western European international tourist demand falls—but later increase numbers—as tourism demand from increasingly rich tropical countries grows. In Ireland and the UK, the regional pattern of demand shifts is similar to the international one: tourism shifts north. In Germany, the opposite pattern is observed as the continental interior warms faster than the coast: tourism shifts south.

Regional and global climate projections increase mid-century yield variability and crop productivity in Belgium

The impact of mid-century climatic changes on crop productivity of winter wheat, maize, potato and sugar beet was assessed for a temperate maritime climate in the Flemish Region, Belgium. Climatic projections of multiple regional and global climate models (RCMs from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3) were stochastically downscaled by the LARS-WG weather generator for use in the crop models AquaCrop and Sirius. Primarily positive effects on mean yield were simulated. Crops benefitted from elevated CO₂, and from more radiation interception if the cropping period was adapted in response to higher temperatures. However, increased productivity was linked with increased susceptibility to water stress and greater inter-annual yield variability, particularly with adapted management. Impacts differed among and within ensembles of climate models, and among crops and environments. Although RCMs may be more suitable for local impact assessments than GCMs, inter-ensemble differences and contingent wider ranges of impacts with GCM projections found in this study indicate that applying RCMs driven by a limited number of GCMs alone would not give the full range of possible impacts. Further, this study suggests that the simulated intermodel variation can be larger than spatial variation within the region. These findings advocate the use of both GCM and RCM ensembles in assessments where temperature and precipitation are central, such as for crop production.     

Potential influences of global warming on future climate and extreme events in Nigeria

This study investigates future impacts of global warming on climate and extreme climate events in Nigeria, the most populous African country that depends on rain-fed agriculture. Past and future climate simulations from 9 GCMs were downscaled (using a statistical model) and analyzed for the study. The study considers the impacts of two emission scenarios (B1 and A2) on the future climates (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) over ecological zones in Nigeria. The model evaluation shows that the downscaling adds values to the GCMs simulation, and the results capture all the important climatic features over the country. The model projections show that both B1 and A2 scenarios change the future climate over Nigeria. They significantly increase the temperature over all the ecological zones, with greatest warming (between 1 and 4 °C) over the Sudan (short grass) Savanna in March. The warming, which increases the occurrence of extreme temperature and heat wave events over the entire country, enhances the frequency of the extreme rainfall events in the south and southeast and reduces the annual rainfall over the northeast. Since heavy rains and floods are major problems in the south and southeast, and drought is major problem in the northeast, the global warming may further aggravate these environmental problems in future. These could have negative impacts on agriculture and further threaten livelihood and food security in the rapidly growing country. Hence, there is need for further studies on adaptation and mitigation strategies to address the impacts of global warming in Nigeria.     

Regional assessment of climate change impacts on maize productivity and associated production risk in Switzerland

A simple model of yield was used along with climate scenarios to assess the impact of climate change on grain maize productivity and associated economic risk in Switzerland. In a first application, changes in the precipitation regime alone were shown to affect the distribution of yield considerably, with shifts not only in the mean but also in the standard deviation and the skewness. Production risk was found to respond more markedly to changes in the long-term mean than in the inter-annual variability of seasonal precipitation amounts. In a further application, yield projections were generated with respect to a full climate scenario, with the emission pathway as specified in the IPCC A2 scenario. Anticipation of the sowing date was found to reduce the negative impact of climate change on yield stability, but was not sufficient to ensure average productivity levels comparable to those observed at present. We argued that this was caused by the reduction in the duration of the growing season, which had a stronger impact than suggested by previous studies. Assuming no change in price relations, the results also revealed a strong increase in production risk with climate change, with more than a doubling in the probability of yield falling short of a critical threshold as compared to today’s situation.     

Adaptation planning and the use of climate change projections in local government in England and Germany

Planning for adaptation to climate change is often regarded to be a local imperative and considered to be more effective if grounded on a solid evidence base and recognisant of relevant climate projections. Research has already documented some of the challenges of making climate information usable in decision-making but has not yet sufficiently reflected on the role of the wider institutional and regulatory context. This article examines the impact of the external institutional context on the use and usability of climate projections in local government through an analysis of 44 planning and climate change (adaptation) documents and 54 semi-structured interviews with planners in England and Germany conducted between July 2013 and May 2014. We show that there is little demand for climate projections in local adaptation planning in either country due to existing policy, legal and regulatory frameworks. Local government in England has not only experienced a decline in use of climate projections, but also the waning of the climate change adaptation agenda more widely, amidst changes in the planning and regulatory framework and severe budget cuts. In Germany, spatial planning makes substantial use of past and present climate data, but the strictly regulated nature of planning prevents the use of climate projections, due to their inherent uncertainties. Findings from the two countries highlight that if we are to better understand the usability of climate projections, we need to be more aware of the institutional context within which planning decisions are made. Otherwise we run the risk of continuing to provide tools and information that are of limited use within their intended context.     

Impact of climate change on vulnerability of forests and ecosystem service supply in Western Rhodopes Mountains

The vulnerability of forest ecosystem services to climate change is expected to depend on landscape characteristic and management history, but may also be influenced by the proximity to the southern range limit of constituent tree species. In the Western Rhodopes in South Bulgaria, Norway spruce is an important commercial species, but is approaching its current southern limit. Using climate sensitive forest models, we projected the impact of climate change on timber production, carbon storage, biodiversity and soil retention in two representative landscapes in the Western Rhodopes; a lower elevation landscape (1000–1450 m a.s.l) dominated by mixed species forests, and a higher elevation landscape (1550–2100 m a.s.l.) currently dominated by spruce. In both landscapes climate change is projected to induce a shift in forest composition, with drought-sensitive species, such as Norway spruce, being replaced by more drought-tolerant species such as Scots pine and black pine at lower elevations. In the higher elevation landscape a reduction in spruce growth is projected, particularly under the more severe climate change scenarios. Under most climate scenarios a reduction in growing stock is projected to occur, but under some scenarios a moderate increase in higher elevation stands (>1500 m a.s.l.) is expected. Climate change is projected to negatively influence carbon storage potential across landscapes with the magnitude depending on the severity of the climate change scenario. The impact of climate change on forest diversity and habitat availability is projected to differ considerably between the two landscapes, with diversity and habitat quality generally increasing at higher elevations, and being reduced at lower elevations. Our results suggest that if currently management practices are maintained the sensitivity of forests and forest ecosystem services in the Western Rhodopes to climate change will differ between low and higher elevation sites and will depend strongly on current forest composition.     

Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

Wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is closely linked to climate. A warmer and drier climate, as predicted, will negatively affect the productivity of PPR wetlands and the services they provide. The effect of climate change on wetland productivity, however, will not only depend on natural processes (e.g., evapotranspiration), but also on human responses. Agricultural land use, the predominant use in the PPR, is unlikely to remain static as climate change affects crop yields and prices. Land use in uplands surrounding wetlands will further affect wetland water budgets and hence wetland productivity. The net impact of climate change on wetland productivity will therefore depend on both the direct effects of climate change on wetlands and the indirect effects on upland land use. We examine the effect of climate change and land-use response on semipermanent wetland productivity by combining an economic model of agricultural land-use change with an ecological model of wetland dynamics. Our results suggest that the climate change scenarios evaluated are likely to have profound effects on land use in the North and South Dakota PPR, with wheat displacing other crops and pasture. The combined pressure of land-use and climate change significantly reduces wetland productivity. In a climate scenario with a +4 °C increase in temperature, our model predicts that almost the entire region may lack the wetland productivity necessary to support wetland-dependent species.     

Vulnerability of forests in the Himalayan region to climate change impacts and anthropogenic disturbances: a systematic review

Regional Environmental Change - The Himalayan region is not only threatened by rapid changes in anthropogenic activities but also by global climate change. Given the uncertainties of magnitude and...     

Predicting species dominance shifts across elevation gradients in mountain forests in Greece under a warmer and drier climate

Regional Environmental Change - The Mediterranean Basin is expected to face warmer and drier conditions in the future, following projected increases in temperature and declines in precipitation....     

Potentials and impacts of short-rotation coppice plantation with aspen in Eastern Germany under conditions of climate change

Woody biomass generated in short-rotation coppice (SRC) plantations with aspen (Populus tremula L.) has good properties for bioenergy crop production: annual yields are high, labour input per year is low, and it is ecologically valuable because of the multi-year rotation periods. Eastern Germany has a special advantage in producing bioenergy crops: the former “agricultural cooperatives” built up quite large farms with, compared to Western Germany, comparatively large fields. Therefore, a modelling study of the potential and the impacts of aspen SRC plantations in the five eastern federal states of Germany under the recent climate and future climate projections was conducted. The ecophysiological forest growth model 4C was used to simulate the growth of aspen SRC plantations and their impacts on carbon in soils, and groundwater recharge, on selected suitable areas currently under crops but with marginal site conditions for cropping. A clear signal to enhanced growth condition over the whole area can be seen in the simulation of the mean annual woody biomass yield under conditions of climate change, which increased from 7.47 t DW ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ under the recent climate to 9.26 t DW ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ at the end of the considered future period 2034–2055 under climate change. The mean soil carbon sequestration rate was 0.81 t C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ under the recent climate and could rise up to 0.93 t C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ under the assumption of climate change. On the other hand, the mean annual percolation rate, used as an indicator of impacts on the regional water budget, will diminish under future climatic conditions. The results suggest that aspen SRC plantations are a suitable contribution to regional CO₂ mitigation and carbon sequestration under possible change of climate, but that negative impacts on the regional water budget are possible.     

Vulnerability of the power sector of Bangladesh to climate change and extreme weather events

Rise in temperature and annual precipitation, changes in seasonal rainfall patterns, more frequent and severe extreme weather events, and increased salinity in river water have been observed in Bangladesh in the recent years. Rising temperature will elevate total power consumption and peak power demand especially during the pre-monsoon hot summer season, reduce power plant efficiency and transformer lifetime, and increase the transmission loss. More frequent and severe extreme weather events may cause more disruption in power generation and distribution, and more damage of power infrastructure. Lower river flow in dry season may cause water scarcity in power plants and hamper the production. Increased salinity in river water due to sea level rise may lead to corrosion and leakages in power plants located in the coastal region of Bangladesh. A diversified, decentralized, and climate resilient power system can reduce negative impacts of climate change on power sector of Bangladesh. Adaptation and mitigation strategies must be incorporated in the planning and development of new power systems and the reformation of existing power systems of Bangladesh.