Climate change,food security,and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to increase the region’s susceptibility and constrain its adaptive capacity. Climate change is commonly recognized as a major issue likely to have negative consequences on food security and livelihoods in the region. This paper reviews three bodies of scholarship that have evolved somewhat separately, yet are inherently interconnected: climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, food security, and sustainable livelihoods. The paper develops a conceptualization of the relationships among the three themes and shows how food security’s vulnerabilities are related to multiple stresses and adaptive capacities, reflecting access to assets. Food security represents one of several livelihood outcomes. The framework shows how several research paradigms relate to the issue of food security and climate change and provides a guide for empirical investigations. Recognizing these interconnections can help in the development of more effective policies and programs. The framework is applied here to synthesize findings from an array of studies in sub-Saharan Africa dealing with vulnerability to climate change, food security, and livelihoods.     

Climate and conflicts: the security risks of global warming

Since the publication of the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007, the securitization of global warming has reached a new level. Numerous public statements and a growing research literature have discussed the potential security risks and conflicts associated with climate change. This article provides an overview of this debate and introduces an assessment framework of climate stress, human security and societal impacts. Key fields of conflict will be addressed, including water stress, land use and food security, natural disasters and environmental migration. A few regional hot spots of climate security will be discussed, such as land-use conflicts in Northern Africa; floods, sea-level rise and human security in Southern Asia; glacier melting and water insecurity in Central Asia and Latin America; water conflicts in the Middle East; climate security in the Mediterranean; and the potential impact on rich countries. Finally, concepts and strategies will be considered to minimize the security risks and move from conflict to cooperation in climate policy.     

Linking agricultural adaptation strategies,food security and vulnerability: evidence from West Africa

Adaptation strategies to reduce smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to climate variability and seasonality are needed given the frequency of extreme weather events predicted to increase during the next decades in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in West Africa. We explored the linkages between selected agricultural adaptation strategies (crop diversity, soil and water conservation, trees on farm, small ruminants, improved crop varieties, fertilizers), food security, farm household characteristics and farm productivity in three contrasting agro-ecological sites in West Africa (Burkina Faso, Ghana and Senegal). Differences in land area per capita and land productivity largely explained the variation in food security across sites. Based on land size and market orientation, four household types were distinguished (subsistence, diversified, extensive, intensified), with contrasting levels of food security and agricultural adaptation strategies. Income increased steadily with land size, and both income and land productivity increased with degree of market orientation. The adoption of agricultural adaptation strategies was widespread, although the intensity of practice varied across household types. Adaptation strategies improve the food security status of some households, but not all. Some strategies had a significant positive impact on land productivity, while others reduced vulnerability resulting in a more stable cash flow throughout the year. Our results show that for different household types, different adaptation strategies may be ‘climate-smart’. The typology developed in this study gives a good entry point to analyse which practices should be targeted to which type of smallholder farmers, and quantifies the effect of adaptation options on household food security. Subsequently, it will be crucial to empower farmers to access, test and modify these adaptation options, if they were to achieve higher levels of food security.     

Different perceptions of adaptation to climate change: a mental model approach applied to the evidence from expert interviews

We argue that differences in the perception and governance of adaptation to climate change and extreme weather events are related to sets of beliefs and concepts through which people understand the environment and which are used to solve the problems they face (mental models). Using data gathered in 31 in-depth interviews with adaptation experts in Europe, we identify five basic stakeholder groups whose divergent aims and logic can be related to different mental models they use: advocacy groups, administration, politicians, researchers, and media and the public. Each of these groups uses specific interpretations of climate change and specifies how to deal with climate change impacts. We suggest that a deeper understanding and follow-up of the identified mental models might be useful for the design of any stakeholder involvement in future climate impact research processes. It might also foster consensus building about adequate adaptation measures against climate threats in a society.     

Participatory scenarios as a tool to link science and policy on food security under climate change in East Africa

How effective are multi-stakeholder scenarios-building processes to bring diverse actors together and create a policy-making tool to support sustainable development and promote food security in the developing world under climate change? The effectiveness of a participatory scenario development process highlights the importance of “boundary work” that links actors and organizations involved in generating knowledge on the one hand, and practitioners and policymakers who take actions based on that knowledge on the other. This study reports on the application of criteria for effective boundary work to a multi-stakeholder scenarios process in East Africa that brought together a range of regional agriculture and food systems actors. This analysis has enabled us to evaluate the extent to which these scenarios were seen by the different actors as credible, legitimate and salient, and thus more likely to be useful. The analysis has shown gaps and opportunities for improvement on these criteria, such as the quantification of scenarios, attention to translating and communicating the results through various channels and new approaches to enable a more inclusive and diverse group of participants. We conclude that applying boundary work criteria to multi-stakeholder scenarios processes can do much to increase the likelihood of developing sustainable development and food security policies that are more appropriate.     

Climate change and variability in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review of current and future trends and impacts on agriculture and food security

Sub-Saharan Africa has been portrayed as the most vulnerable region to the impacts of global climate change because of its reliance on agriculture which is highly sensitive to weather and climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and light and extreme events and low capacity for adaptation. This article reviews evidence on the scope and nature of the climate change challenge; and assesses the impact of climate change on agriculture and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. From the review, it is apparent that the climate in Africa is already exhibiting significant changes, evident by changes in average temperature, change in amount of rainfall and patterns and the prevalence of frequency and intensity of weather extremes. The review also revealed that although uncertainties exist with regards to the magnitude of impacts, climate will negatively affect agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, as result of current and expected climate change, the area suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and yield potential, particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas, are expected to decrease. These impacts will affect all components of food security: food availability, food accessibility, food utilisation and food stability and hence increase the risk of hunger in the region. The review thus confirms the general consensus that Sub-Saharan Africa is the most vulnerable region to climate change. It suggests that, policymakers and development agencies should focus on formulating and implementing policies and programmes that promote farm level adaptation strategies currently being practiced by farmers across the region.     

Transport and the environment: a critical review for Africa

This paper discusses the environment as a unit under threat of negative externalities (largely climate change and air pollution) induced by the many sectors albeit with a special reference to transport, bearing in mind that transport is an economic driver. We pay particular reference to the developments in the developed nations in as much as they can provide a framework upon which Africa can draw lessons for public policy and management. While the context may be different, this review is an attempt to inform transport policy and management for environmental sustainability in Africa. The review uses case studies of South Africa, Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Kenya.     

Sociocultural valuation of ecosystem services to improve protected area management: a multi-method approach applied to Catalonia,Spain

The notion of ecosystem services is considered useful for integrating perceptions and values into decision-making on environment and nature. Sociocultural factors have been suggested to explain perceptions and values assigned to ecosystem services. We examine this by undertaking a sociocultural valuation of ecosystem services provided by the natural park of Sant Llorenç del Munt, located at the edge of the Barcelona Metropolitan Region. Four methods are used, namely a review of the literature on ecosystem services, non-participant observation, semi-structured interviews with stakeholders and a valuation survey among visitors. We assess whether visitors and other stakeholders understand the term ecosystem service, finding that the concept is rather unknown or misunderstood. Among the 28 ecosystem services identified, habitat and cultural services were the most valued. We statistically identify socioeconomic characteristics of visitors that have a main influence on their valuation of ecosystem services. We further assess diverging preferences of all stakeholders that might give rise to conflicting views about policies for protected areas. We draw lessons about the usefulness of the multi-method approach and about the management of protected areas.     

Modelling the connection between energy consumption and carbon emissions in North Africa: Evidence from panel models robust to cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity

Environment, Development and Sustainability - This paper explored the link between energy consumption and carbon emissions in North Africa through an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework....     

A new compilation of the atmospheric 85krypton inventories from 1945 to 2000 and its evaluation in a global transport model

This paper gives the yearly (85)Kr emissions of all known reprocessing facilities, which are the main sources of (85)Kr in the atmosphere since 1945, for the years 1945 until 2000. According to this inventory 10,600 PBq (Peta=10(15)) of (85)Kr have been globally emitted from the year 1945 until the end of 2000. The global atmospheric inventory at the end of the year 2000 amounts to 4800 PBq. These emissions have been incorporated into the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model as point sources. Monthly mean model results are compared with measurements made at different locations and times. The influence of each source on the measured concentrations at various locations is studied. The calculated concentrations are found to give reasonably good agreement with the observations, indicating that the emission inventory is realistic. Although, at all northern hemispheric observation sites the model tends to slightly overestimate the concentrations. A possible reason for this overestimation can be found in model features (coarse resolution in time and space). The most prominent discrepancy that is consistently repeated at all northern hemispheric stations occurs in the early 1990s. This could most likely be related to an overestimate of sources. Possibly, the Russian emissions declined earlier than assumed in the current database. Another discrepancy between observations and simulations indicating an incompleteness of the release data is found at some southern hemispheric sites. The variability of their observations could only be explained by regional sources. However, several spikes occur after 1992 when no reprocessing facility is known to be in operation in the southern hemisphere. Production of isotopes for radiopharmaceuticals like technetium-99m from highly enriched uranium is the most likely explanation.     

Conservation, commercialisation and confusion: harvesting of Ischyrolepis in a coastal forest, South Africa

Harvesting of non-timber forest products is an integral component of rural livelihoods throughout the developing world. At times this is at odds with conservation objectives. Reconciliation of the two requires examination of local level contexts and needs. This paper reports on the harvesting needs for Ischyrolepis by a rural community in South Africa, against the setting that they had recently been prohibited from harvesting by the local conservation officials. Interviews were conducted with conservation officials to understand the reasoning for the prohibition. Local demand for Ischyrolepis was assessed by household surveys, as well as in-depth interviews with traders. The density and size class distribution of Ischyrolepis was determined using transects. The total annual demand for Ischyrolepis was determined to be approximately only 2.7% of the standing crop. The bulk of the annual demand was for small-scale trade, the income from which was a primary source of income for the few harvesters. Very little evidence could be found indicating that harvesting was damaging the resource or its habitat, and local knowledge suggested that the abundance of the species was stimulated by harvesting. Even if market demand were to increase, the size of the shoots required means that less than 20% of the standing crop could be harvested annually. Current regulations around harvesting are in a state of revision, and hence confusion prevails regarding if harvesting is permissible, and if so, under what conditions, which is detrimental to both conservation and livelihoods. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Regaining the traditional use of wildlife in wetlands on the coastal plain of Veracruz,Mexico: ensuring food security in the face of global climate change

Regional Environmental Change - Wetlands play important roles that benefit social-ecological systems. They are threatened by climate change and human activities, i.e., raising livestock and...     

Tigers,Tribes, and Bureaucrats: the voluntariness and socioeconomic consequences of village relocations from Melghat Tiger Reserve,India

Relocations of indigenous peoples from protected areas to promote wildlife conservation have typically resulted in negative socioeconomic results for those displaced. The international indigenous peoples’ movement has begun to coalesce around the use of free, prior, and informed consent (FPIC) as a legal mechanism to prevent disadvantageous relocations. In 2006, India’s parliament passed the Forest Rights Act, which requires any village relocation of tribal people be conditional upon their FPIC. I used household surveys and qualitative interviews of relocated and forest (not-yet relocated) villagers from Melghat Tiger Reserve, Maharashtra, to examine (a) the extent to which putatively voluntary relocations were conditional upon FPIC and (b) how such relocations affect socioeconomic metrics and overall quality of life for those relocated. I found that while consent to relocate was mostly free, consent was not fully informed across the villages examined. The socioeconomic results indicate that relocated villagers make a trade-off, leaving a familiar, healthier environment for better access to modern services and employment. Finally, I found that forest villagers in favor of relocation emphasized how the social and economic costs of remaining in the forest had become greater due to the relocation of neighboring villages. This field study suggests that strong implementation of FPIC and state responsiveness post-relocation are both necessary to safeguard forest-dwelling people from disadvantageous relocations.     

The impact of global warming on winter tourism and skiing: a regionalised model for Austrian snow conditions

Possible climate change will modify snow-cover depth and change the characteristics of winter tourism and skiing districts. Our model describes seasonal snow-cover depth related to altitude in six Alpine climate regions as the best fit of all snow stations. Data cover 30 winter seasons (November to April values) from 1965 to 1995. We modified the data according to a scenario of temperature and precipitation change (2 °C warming, no precipitation change) and achieve a new simulated snow-cover depth. The indicators MARP (mean altitude of resident population) and MASPSL (mean altitude of starting point of ski lifts) serve as references for “critical altitudes” of Austrian districts. A warming implies a reduction of snow in all districts, but the loss is overproportional in lower altitudes. The direction of economic impacts is clear – income losses and adaptation costs – but magnitude and time frames remain uncertain. Received: 24 February 1999 · Accepted: 15 May 1999     

Linking human security to natural resources: perspective from a fishery resource allocation system in Chilika lagoon, India

Human security is linked to people’s access to natural resources and vulnerabilities to environmental change. In the case study of Chilika lagoon, the findings reveal that insecurity linked to natural resources is largely embedded in the historical process of resource allocation among stakeholders, rather than on the presence of resource stocks. The insecurities are strongly tied not only to allocation changes, but also to multiple factors (environmental, technological, and demographic factors). Based on the Chilika lagoon experience, this article develops a pathway toward a clear understanding of the linkage between human security and natural resources in a local context.     

From global sustainability research matrix to typology: a tool to analyze coastal and marine social-ecological systems

An attempt is made to develop a coastal and marine social-ecological typology. An explicitly regional focus is taken to explore how a regionally grounded, multi-scale analysis may support multi-level local to global sustainability efforts. A case study from Indonesia exemplifies this approach. Social-ecological sustainability problems, caused by drivers at different earth system levels, lead the way into the proposed typology. A social-ecological system consists of a biogeophysical territory, an identified issue and the associated social agents. It can extend across disciplines as well as across spatial and institutional levels and scales. A global sustainability research matrix, which is based on ecozones and problem types, can thus be constructed and serves as a research-driven multi-level typology. The regional application links directly to stakeholder agendas at the problem level. It is argued that some of the central functions of coastal and marine social-ecological systems are resource provision, livelihood access, and storm and erosion protection, which need special attention in a coastal and marine social-ecological typology, as exemplified in the Indonesian case study used. This contribution is an exploratory research to propose steps toward such a typology. It is extended to the social-ecological subsystems—natural, social, governance—and applied to additional cases. A two-dimensional, hierarchical typology is proposed as a tool to analyze, compare and classify coastal and marine systems. A policy typology is added to assess changes. A governance baseline is assumed to foster normative sustainability goals. A subsystems appraisal typology is meant to evaluate action results. Finally, unresolved methodological questions are discussed.     

A dynamic model of the global iodine cycle and estimation of dose to the world population from releases of iodine-129 to the environment

A dynamic linear compartment model of the global iodine cycle has been developed for the purpose of estimating radiological impacts on the world population from releases of ¹²⁹I to the environment. The time-invariant fractional transfer rates, which describe the transport of ¹²⁹I between environmental compartments comprising the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and terrestrial biosphere, are estimated from an analysis of available data on concentrations for naturally occurring stable iodine and data on the global hydrologic cycle. The global radiological impacts on man from a given release of ¹²⁹I are estimated from the calculated compartment inventories as a function of time and models for the intake of iodine by a reference adult. For a constrant population of 12.2 billion, the estimated worldwide complete population dose commitment to the thyroid is 76 man-Sv/GBq (2.8 × 10⁵ man-rem/Ci) released. Estimated values of the incomplete population dose commitment at various times after a global-scale release to the atmosphere are also presented.