Climate change adaptation and sustainable regional development: a case study for the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany

Located in a relatively dry region and characterized by mainly sandy soils, the German Federal State of Brandenburg (surrounding the capital city of Berlin) is especially vulnerable to climate change impacts (e.g., summer droughts) and cascading effects on ecological systems (e.g., decreasing ground water tables, water stress, fire risk, productivity losses) with socioeconomic implications. Furthermore, a complex interplay of unemployment, rural exodus, and an aging population challenges this structurally weak region. We discuss adaptation measures that are either implemented or planned, as well as research into adaptation strategies to climate change for the sectors forestry, agriculture, and water management as well as in nature conservation in light of socioeconomic and ecological challenges and benefits. In doing so, we adopt a systemic view of Brandenburg where the sectors discussed are seen as subsystems embedded in a larger regional system. This at least partially holarchical approach enables the identification of conflicts between adaptation measures, but also of synergies among the sectors that pertain to successful adaptation to climate change. The insights gained ultimately highlight the need for cross-sectoral, adaptive management practices that jointly target a sustainable regional development.     

Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development

Regional Environmental Change - This paper synthesizes what is known about the physical and biophysical impacts of climate change and their consequences for societies and development under...     

Climate change,flooding in South Asia and implications

South Asia is one of the most flood vulnerable regions in the world. Floods occur often in the region triggered by heavy monsoon precipitation and can cause enormous damages to lives, property, crops and infrastructure. The frequency of extreme floods is on the rise in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. Past extreme floods fall within the range of climate variability but frequency, magnitude and extent flooding may increase in South Asia in future due to climate change. Flood risk is sensitive to different levels of warming. For example, in Bangladesh, analysis shows that most of the expected changes in flood depth and extent would occur between 0 and 2°C warming. The three major rivers Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna/Barak will play similar roles in future flooding regimes as they are doing presently. Increases in future flooding can cause extensive damage to rice crops in the monsoon. This may have implications for food security especially of poor women and children. Floods can also impact public health in the flood plains and in the coastal areas.     

Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups

Regional Environmental Change - The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region emerges as one of the hot spots for worsening extreme heat, drought and aridity conditions under climate change. A...     

Climate change impacts,vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the electrical energy sector in Cyprus

The purpose of this study was to investigate the climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the electrical energy sector in Cyprus. Spatial vulnerability of the island was assessed using the degree-day indicator to investigate heating and cooling demands in the near future using daily temperature projections from regional climate models (RCMs). Using daily electrical energy consumption data for the present climate, an impact model linking consumption and temperature was constructed and this relationship was projected to the future climate using the data from the RCMs and assuming the same technology use. Our impact model results showed that for the period between November and April (‘cold period’), a decreasing trend in electrical energy consumption is evident due to warmer conditions in the near future, while for the period between May and October (‘warm period’), an increasing trend in electricity consumption is evident as warmer conditions dominate by 2050. Regarding the spatial vulnerability assessment, the cooling degree-day indicator testified that major increases in cooling demand, between 100 and 200 degree-days, are expected in inland and southern regions during the summer in the near future. In addition, increases of about 20–50 degree-days are anticipated during autumn. Conversely, energy demand for heating is projected to decrease during spring and winter, especially in the higher elevation parts of the island. More precisely, reductions of about 30–75 degree-days are projected during spring, while greater reductions of about 60–90 degree-days are expected during winter in heating demand, especially for in the near future. The ability of the energy sector to adapt and follow these changes was deemed to be satisfactory reducing the overall vulnerability of the sector to future climate change.     

Climate change, drought risk and land capability for agriculture: implications for land use in Scotland

Land capability classification systems define and communicate biophysical limitations on land use, including climate, soils and topography. They can therefore provide an accessible format for both scientists and decision-makers to share knowledge on climate change impacts and adaptation. Underlying such classifications are complex interactions that require dynamic spatial analysis, particularly between soil and climate. These relationships are investigated using a case study on drought risk for agriculture in Scotland, which is currently considered less significant than wetness-related issues. The impact of drought risk is assessed using an established empirical system for land capability linking indicator crops with water availability. This procedure is facilitated by spatial interpolation of climate and soil profile data to provide soil moisture deficits and plant available water on a regular 1-km grid. To evaluate potential impacts of future climate change, land capability classes are estimated using both large-scale ensemble (multi-simulation) data from the HadRM3 regional climate model and local-scale weather generator data (UKCP09) derived from multiple climate models. Results for the case study suggest that drought risk is likely to have a much more significant influence on land use in the future. This could potentially act to restrict the range of crops grown and hence reduce land capability in some areas unless strategic-level adaptation measures are developed that also integrate land use systems and water resources with the wider environment.     

Climate change research in Bangladesh: research gaps and implications for adaptation-related decision-making

Regional Environmental Change - In this paper, we present the results of a systematic literature review of climate change vulnerability-related research conducted in Bangladesh between 1994 and...     

Climate change,Atlantic storm activity and the regional socio-economic impacts on the Caribbean

Forecasting the likely economic losses arising from North Atlantic hurricanes is high on the agenda of both Caribbean and North American stakeholders. This paper develops a general equilibrium framework to conduct an impact assessment of climate change and hurricane formation. General equilibrium analysis accounts for not only primary effects but also feedback effects. The model simulations suggest that output losses occurring due to hurricanes are likely to have economy-wide effects. However, the rural economies of the region are likely to suffer the greatest (relative) effects. The findings of this study suggest that rural livelihoods should be mainstreamed in any adaptation initiatives adopted by the region. Ignoring these neighbourhood features in adaptation plans could negatively impact on poverty and unemployment in rural areas.     

Climate change impacts on European agriculture revisited: adding the economic dimension of grasslands

Forage and more widely grassland systems are difficult to analyze in economic terms because a large proportion of what is produced is not marketed. Economic misestimation of these farm products may dramatically alter projected climate change impacts. This study estimates the economic value of grass and assesses the impact of climatic variations on grassland–livestock systems by taking various environmental and climatic factors into account. Accordingly, grass yield responses to nitrogen inputs (N-yield functions) have been simulated using the grassland biogeochemical PaSim model and then fed into the economic farm-type supply AROPAj model. We developed a computational method to estimate shadow prices of grass production, allowing us to better estimate the effects of climatic variability on grassland and crop systems. This approach has been used on a European scale under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate scenarios (AR4 A2 and B1). Results show a significant change in land use over time. Accordingly, due to decreases in feed expenses, farmers may increase livestock, thereby increasing overall greenhouse gas emissions for all scenarios considered. As part of autonomous adaptation by farming systems, N-yield functions extending to pastures and fodders allow us to improve the model and to refine results when marketed and non-marketed crops are considered in a balanced way.     

Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions

Regional Environmental Change - The repercussions of climate change will be felt in various ways throughout both natural and human systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change projections for this...     

Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements in the Guadalquivir river basin in Spain

Irrigated production in the Guadalquivir river basin in Spain has grown significantly over the last decade. As a consequence, water resources are under severe pressure, with an increasing deficit between available supplies and water demand. To conserve supplies, the water authority has reduced the volume of water assigned to each irrigation district. Major infrastructural investments have also been made to improve irrigation efficiency, including the adoption of high technology micro-irrigation systems. Within a context of increasing water scarcity, climate change threatens to exacerbate the current supply-demand imbalance. In this study, the impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand have been modelled and mapped. Using a combination of crop and geographic information systems, maps showing the predicted spatial impacts of changes in agroclimate (climate variables that determine the irrigation requirements) and irrigation need have been produced. The maps highlight a significant predicted increase in aridity and irrigation need. Modelling of irrigation water requirements shows a typical increase of between 15 and 20% in seasonal irrigation need by the 2050s, depending on location and cropping pattern, coupled with changes in seasonal timing of demand.     

Climate change impacts on vegetation and water cycle in the Euro-Mediterranean region,studied by a likelihood approach

Scientific community and policy-makers share the common interest in identifying and evaluating potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems, relying mainly on probabilistic methods of exploring the risks. In this perspective, the concept of ensemble forecasting makes possible to handle uncertainties associated with climate risk analysis by focusing on a range of potential or probable impact scenarios rather than actualizing a single case. In this paper, an ensemble of simulations based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model was used to investigate the uncertainty upon predictions of the future Euro-Mediterranean vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water budget. Twenty simulations from past to future were based on the combination of different climate inputs, vegetation model parameterizations, and configurations. The evaluation of results combined the separate deterministic future projections from the LPJ model into a single probabilistic projection, associating a likelihood degree in accordance with the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change terminology. Results projected a general critical situation in terms of water availability, made more serious if considering that also the occurrence of extreme-related events, e.g., fires, is expected to become more frequent as favored by more recurrent drought episodes. Although more uncomfortable climate conditions were projected for vegetation, net primary production (NPP) was predicted to increase due to the potential enrichment of CO₂ in atmosphere and its fertilization effects on vegetation. The combination of rising NPP and fire frequency may shape the carbon cycle components, as the carbon losses by fire also were projected to increase.     

Climate change and temperature rise in the Greater Beirut Area: implications on heat-related premature mortality

This study attempts to quantify climate change-induced increase in premature mortality associated with temperature rise with corresponding socioeconomic implications in the context of an urban coastal city, taking the Greater Beirut Area as a study area. Future climatic conditions under four different emissions scenarios were considered to cover a broad spectrum of driving forces and potential social, economic and technologic evolutions. During the first half of the twenty-first century, the expected life losses due to high temperatures in hot days are offset by expected life gains due to improved temperatures in cold days, except under the scenario which characterizes fossil fuel intensive development. By the year 2095, the annual average all-cause premature mortality is expected to increase by 3–15 %, depending on the scenario.     

Climate capacity:the measurement for adaptation to climate change

This article proposed the concept of"climate capacity"as a way of measuring human’s adaptiveness to climate change.This article also focused on the related concepts like ecological carrying capacity,water resources carrying capacity,land carrying capacity as well as population carrying capacity.The concept of climate capacity was articulated against a background of global climate and environmental change.Essentially,China’s efforts to adapt to climate change was a matter of improving climate capacity,which is the ecosystem as well as the frequency,the intensity and the scale of human’s social activities that the climatic resources of a particular geographic area were supposed to support.The climate capacity has two components.One is the natural climate capacity,which includes temperature,sunlight,precipitation,extreme climatic events,etc.The other is the derived climate capacity,which includes water resources,land resources,ecological systems,climatic risks,etc.The climate capacity can be developed or be transferred between regions by taking engineering,technology or regime-based adaptive measures.However,these adaptive measures must be implemented under the principle of economic rationalism,ecological integrity,climate protection,and social justice.It is expected that by combining the climate capacity and its threshold value with the assessment of climate change risks,we are able to predict the optimal population carrying capacity and the scale of socioeconomic development,and furthermore,provide policy support for the socioeconomic development strategy and adaptive planning.In the regions with high climate capacity,there is a symbiotic relationship between adaptation and socioeconomic development.But,in the regions with limited climate capacity,irrational development may further damage the environment.Taking the Yangtze River delta,a region with high climate capacity,and a region of Ningxia,a region with limited climate capacity,as illustrative examples,the authors of this article analyzed the policy implications of climate capacity and further made suggestions on the problems of capacitylimited adaptation and development-driven adaptation.This article argued that the concept of climate capacity can not only be used as an analytical instrument of climate change economics,but also it can provide research support for planning regional adaptation and development with climate change impact and risk assessments.     

Motivations for organic farming in tourist regions: a case study in Nepal

An increasing number of individuals and businesses involved in the tourism industry have begun activities related to organic farming and organic agro-products not only in Europe and North America but also in developing countries in Asia. Both organic farming and rural tourism are considered important to socially and economically sustainable rural development. The influences on the establishment of or conversion to organic farming have been much discussed in Europe but not in developing countries. This study focuses on Nepal, where small-scale organic farming occurs in tourism areas, and qualitatively reveals the motivations for organic farming and other factors related to its adoption. It was found that the reasons for introducing organic farming practices varied with the timing of their adoption. Additionally, the kinds of organic-related activities adopted varied depending on how the individual adopter first encountered the term “organic farming.” However, all individuals involved in organic farming shared some common motivations, such as desires for personal health, quality produce and rural development.