How do we assess vulnerability to climate change in India? A systematic review of literature

In countries like India where multiple risks interact with socio-economic differences to create and sustain vulnerability, assessing the vulnerability of people, places, and systems to climate change is a critical tool to prioritise adaptation. In India, several vulnerability assessment tools have been designed spanning multiple disciplines, by multiple actors, and at multiple scales. However, their conceptual, methodological, and disciplinary underpinnings, and resulting implications on who is identified as vulnerable, have not been interrogated. Addressing this gap, we systematically review peer-reviewed publications (n = 78) and grey literature (n = 42) to characterise how vulnerability to climate change is assessed in India. We frame our enquiry against four questions: (1) How is vulnerability conceptualised (vulnerability of whom/what, vulnerability to what), (2) who assesses vulnerability, (3) how is vulnerability assessed (methodology, scale), and (4) what are the implications of methodology on outcomes of the assessment. Our findings emphasise that methods to assess vulnerability to climate change are embedded in the disciplinary traditions, methodological approaches, and often-unstated motivations of those designing the assessment. Further, while most assessments acknowledge the importance of scalar and temporal aspects of vulnerability, we find few examples of it being integrated in methodology. Such methodological myopia potentially overlooks how social differentiation, ecological shifts, and institutional dynamics construct and perpetuate vulnerability. Finally, we synthesise the strengths and weaknesses of current vulnerability assessment methods in India and identify a predominance of research in rural landscapes with a relatively lower coverage in urban and peri-urban settlements, which are key interfaces of transitions.     

What drives the water quality changes in the Selenga Basin: climate change or socio-economic development?

Regional Environmental Change - Lake Baikal is the largest near-surface global freshwater source and of high interest for water quality alterations, as deterioration of water quality is a main...     

Measuring environmental stress in East Greenland polar bears, 1892–1927 and 1988–2009: What does hair cortisol tell us?

Hair sampled from 96 East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) over the periods 1892–1927 and 1988–2009 was analyzed for cortisol as a proxy to investigate temporal patterns of environmental stress. Cortisol concentration was independent of sex and age, and was found at significantly higher (p < 0.001) concentrations in historical hair samples (1892–1927; n = 8) relative to recent ones (1988–2009; n = 88). In addition, there was a linear time trend in cortisol concentration of the recent samples (p < 0.01), with an annual decrease of 2.7%. The recent hair samples were also analyzed for major bioaccumulative, persistent organic pollutants (POPs). There were no obvious POP related time trends or correlations between hair cortisol and hair POP concentrations. Thus, polar bear hair appears to be a relatively poor indicator of the animal's general POP load in adipose tissue. However, further investigations are warranted to explore the reasons for the temporal decrease found in the bears' hair cortisol levels.     

What role for local organisations in climate change adaptation? Insights from South Africa

Regional Environmental Change - With increasing funding directed towards climate change adaptation (CCA) in developing countries, there is a growing need to understand how this support is landing...     

Sustainable nations: what do aggregate indexes tell us?

What is a ‘sustainable nation’ and how can we identify and rank ‘sustainable nations?’ Are nations producing and consuming in a sustainable way? Although several aggregate indexes have been proposed to answer such questions, comprehensive and internationally comparable data are not available for most of these. This paper quantitatively compares three aggregate indexes of sustainability: the World Bank’s ‘Genuine Savings’ measure, the ‘Ecological Footprint,’ and the ‘Environmental Sustainability Index.’ These three indexes are available for a large number of countries and also seem to be the most influential among the aggregate indexes. This paper first discusses the main limitations and weaknesses of each of these indexes. Subsequently, it shows that rankings of sustainable nations and aggregate assessments of unsustainable world population and world GDP shares vary considerably among these indexes. This disagreement leads to suggestions for analysis and policy. One important insight is that climate change, arguable the most serious threat currently faced by humanity, is not or arbitrarily captured by the indexes.     

Can current management maintain forest landscape multifunctionality in the Eastern Alps in Austria under climate change?

In Central Europe, management of forests for multiple ecosystem services (ES) has a long tradition and is currently drawing much attention due to increasing interest in non-timber services. In face of a changing climate and diverse ES portfolios, a key issue for forest managers is to assess vulnerability of ES provisioning. In a case study catchment of 250 ha in the Eastern Alps, the currently practiced uneven-aged management regime (BAU; business as usual) which is based on irregularly shaped patch cuts along skyline corridors was analysed under historic climate (represented by the period 1961–1990) and five transient climate change scenarios (period 2010–2110) and compared to an unmanaged scenario (NOM). The study addressed (1) the future provisioning of timber, carbon sequestration, protection against gravitational hazards, and nature conservation values under BAU management, (2) the effect of spatial scale (1, 5, 10 ha grain size) in mapping ES indicators and (3) how the spatial scale of ES assessment affects the simultaneous provision of several ES (i.e. multifunctionality). The analysis employed the PICUS forest simulation model in combination with novel landscape assessment tools. In BAU management, timber harvests were smaller than periodic increments. The resulting increase in standing stock benefitted carbon sequestration. In four out of five climate change scenarios, volume increment was increasing. With the exception of the mildest climate change scenario (+2.6 °C, no change in precipitation), all other analysed climate change scenarios reduced standing tree volume, carbon pools and number of large old trees, and increased standing deadwood volume due to an intensifying bark beetle disturbance regime. However, increases in deadwood and patchy canopy openings benefitted bird habitat quality. Under historic climate, the NOM regime showed better performance in all non-timber ES. Under climate change conditions, the damages from bark beetle disturbances increased more in NOM compared with BAU. Despite favourable temperature conditions in climate change scenarios, the share of admixed broadleaved species was not increasing in BAU management, mainly due to the heavy browsing pressure by ungulates. In NOM, it even decreased and mean tree age increased. Thus, in the long run NOM may enter a phase of lower resilience compared with BAU. Most ES indicators were fairly insensitive to the spatial scale of indicator mapping. ES indicators that were based on sparse tree and stand attributes such as rare admixed tree species, large snags and live trees achieved better results when mapped at larger scales. The share of landscape area with simultaneous provisioning of ES at reasonable performance levels (i.e. multifunctionality) decreased with increasing number of considered ES, while it increased with increasing spatial scale of the assessment. In the case study, landscape between 53 and 100 % was classified as multifunctional, depending on number and combinations of ES.     

Prepared for climate change? A method for the ex-ante assessment of formal responsibilities for climate adaptation in specific sectors

Climate change-related risks encompass an intensification of extreme weather events, such as fluvial and pluvial flooding, droughts, storms, and heat stress. A transparent and comprehensive division of responsibilities is a necessary—but not the only—precondition for being prepared for climate change. In this paper, we present, and preliminarily test, a method for the ex-ante assessment of the division of public and private responsibilities for climate adaptation in terms of comprehensiveness, transparency, legitimacy, and effectiveness. This method proofs particularly suited for the assessment of adaptation responsibilities in combination with a sectoral approach. It helps identifying a number of shortcomings in divisions of responsibilities for climate adaptation. We conclude that this method is useful as a diagnostic tool for identifying the expected climate change preparedness level, and recommend to combine this with ex-post analyses of real-life cases of extreme events in order to assess the actual preparedness for climate change. Besides the scientific purpose of providing a generally applicable assessment method, with this method, we also intend to assist policy-makers in developing and implementing adaptation plans at various levels.     

Is the participatory formulation of policy strategies worth the effort? The case of climate change adaptation in Austria

Participation is usually regarded as a good practice in environmental policymaking, but its effects on policy strategies are unclear. Based on literature research, surveys, and interviews with participants, the present paper assesses whether decisional participation in formulating Austria’s National Adaptation Strategy (NAS) was worth the effort. Assessed against the goals of the participation process, we find that it raised awareness for adaptation and facilitated an exchange among the participants and that it improved the content of the NAS. However, regarding the goal of enhancing the acceptance of and commitment to the NAS, we find that this has been achieved among those who participated but not among high-level policymakers who are responsible for implementing the NAS. We conclude that (decisional) participation has its benefits in formulating comprehensive policy strategies but that it is most likely not able to overhaul their well-documented weaknesses, among them weak political commitment and implementation failures.

     

Smallholder farmers’ perceptions of and adaptations to climate change in the Nigerian savanna

The savanna region of Africa is a potential breadbasket of the continent but is severely affected by climate change. Understanding farmers’ perceptions of climate change and the types of adjustments they have made in their farming practices in response to these changes will offer some insights into necessary interventions to ensure a successful adaptation in the region. This paper explores how smallholder farmers in the Nigerian savanna perceive and adapt to climate change. It is based on a field survey carried out among 200 smallholder farm households selected from two agro-ecological zones. The results show that most of the farmers have noticed changes in climate and have consequently adjusted their farming practices to adapt. There are no large differences in the adaptation practices across the region, but farmers in Sudan savanna agro-ecological zone are more likely to adapt to changes in temperature than those in northern Guinea savanna. The main adaptation methods include varying planting dates, use of drought tolerant and early maturing varieties and tree planting. Some of the farmers are facing limitations in adapting because of lack of information on climate change and the suitable adaptation measures and lack of credit. The study then concludes that to ensure successful adaptation to climate change in the region, concerted efforts are needed to design and promote planned adaptation measures that fit into the local context and also to educate farmers on climate change and appropriate adaptation measures.     

Social justice in the context of adaptation to climate change—reflecting on different policy approaches to distribute and allocate flood risk management

Regional Environmental Change -     

Challenges posed by climate change: is environmental protection an ethical issue?

Climate is one of the more complex physical systems in nature, its behaviour being fundamentally non-linear and chaotic. In assessing the potential risks from climate change and the costs of averting it, researchers and policymakers encounter pervasive uncertainty. Sceptics demand to get rid of the inherent uncertainties, and some experts, on the other end, keep sending out messages of catastrophic scenarios hoping that this will increase people’s awareness of the danger we face. The recent admission of a mistake in IPCC’s Climate change 2007 report (promptly broadcast by all the major media groups and newspapers from Jan. 20th 2010 onwards) made by the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—that Himalayan glaciers could melt away by 2035 (the IPCC claim of 2035 is wrong by over 300 years.)—has already brought a damage to the IPCC’s reputation that is likely to be considerable. But in this paper, perhaps risking being provocative and paradoxical, instead of looking for the right answers to what we think are inevitable uncertainties, we intend to search for new questions that may lead to a new way of thinking and may bring about new lifestyles and behaviour for citizens and firms.     

Land use change and soil carbon sequestration in China: Where does it pay to conserve?

Regional Environmental Change - This paper estimates the impact of land use change on soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in China from 1985 to 2005 using a nationwide, georeferenced database...     

Spatiotemporal changes of geomorphic environment in the Muriganga–Saptamukhi estuarine interfluve of Indian Sundarban in the context of climate change: a case study

The surface of the earth has been continuously sculptured by the exogenetic processes primarily by the climatic hydrological attributes. Over the sequential phases of evolution of earth, the climatic attributes have altered. The alternative processes such as glaciation and declaciation, fluctuations of sea level and variability in rainfall pattern have changed the surface configuration through maneuvering the operations of the geographical processes. The issue of climate change has become a matter of scientific concern all over the world as the human communities are facing severe problems manifested in the form of flood, drought and submergence of low-lying coastal regions, estuaries and deltas. The present study is an attempt to understand the nature and extent of climate change (1890–2012) and related sea level rise (1970s–2010) in the deltaic Sundarban region of India since the last century and how far they are impacting the erosion–depositional processes (1925, 1926–2014). The changing trend of mean annual temperature, rainfall pattern and frequencies of tropical cyclones has been studied in detail, and spatiotemporal changes of geomorphic environment in different reaches of the study area have also been monitored with available multi-temporal geospatial data. The observation reveals that the flat sandy coastal belt and low-lying island in the extreme southern part have been severely affected by wave dash and seasonal storm surges which are mostly responsible for vigorous erosion. On the other hand, high tidal velocity is observed along the exposed concave bank in the upper–middle reaches of the Muriganga estuary and exposed outer bank in lower–middle reaches of Saptamukhi estuary. The thalweg line, which is very close to the river bank in those reaches of estuary, intensifies the hydraulic pressure along marginal parts of river bank which leads to erosion. Depositional activities are mostly observed along the sheltered inner reaches and convex river banks of the estuaries due to less effective tidal rushes, shallow channel depth, marginal flow velocity and gentle channel slope. Therefore, erosional and depositional processes cannot be explain by the relative mean sea level rise, because increasing mean sea level will affect the erosional processes uniformly in the entire estuary. In this present study area, both the erosional and depositional processes are simultaneously active depending on geographical exposure, sinuous channel pattern, channel depth and lithological compositions.