A paradigm for ecological risk assessment

The 1983 National Academy of Sciences paradigm for conducting human health risk assessment is considered with respect to ecological risk assessment. This four-step paradigm fails to capture key intrinsic differences between the two types of analysis, specifically: identity of risk targets and receptors; identity of the appropriate level of ecological organization at which the risk is expressed; variability of endpoint with respect to risk receptor; and the existence ofrisk cascades through ecological feedback loops. We propose an alternative paradigm that includes a preliminary step,receptor identification, in which chemical partitioning is combined with a conceptual model of the ecosystem to identify appropriate risk targets. In addition, we propose formal inclusion ofendpoint identification and explicit consideration of risk cascades in arelationship assessment in which interactive feedback loops are considered in an iterative process. The proposed paradigm preserves the steps of hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment (renamedresponse assessment) and risk characterization, although specific modifications are recommended.     

Application of land-use data and screening tests for evaluating pesticide runoff toxicity in surface waters

Survey information on pesticide usage in New Zealand during 1985–1989 is summarized by regions and principal applications. Two screening tests, one based on a simple water-balance method and the other based on a semiempirical runoff formula, have been used to identify 18 pesticides with application rates that may yield runoff concentrations that are harmful to aquatic fauna. These are predominantly associated either with intensive applications in horticulture or extensive applications to cereal crops and pasture. The purpose of the screening tests was to calculate typical edge-of-field concentrations in runoff and, by comparing them with known aquatic toxicity values, determine which compounds are applied at rates that may yield toxic runoff. While it may be possible to extend these methods to calculate typical surface water concentrations, further studies will be needed to evaluate pesticide persistence and assimilation in stream channels.     

Assessment of risk to aquatic biota from elevated salinity—A case study from the Hunter River,Australia

An ecological risk assessment was performed on salinity levels of the Hunter River and its tributaries to respond to concerns that high salinity may be damaging aquatic ecosystems. Probabilistic techniques were used to assess likelihood and consequence, and hence the risk to aquatic biota from salinity. Continuous electrical conductivity distributions were used to describe the likelihood that high salinity would occur (exposure dataset) and toxicity values were compiled from the limited literature sources available to describe the consequence of high salinity (effects dataset). The assessment was preliminary in the sense that it modelled risk on the basis of existing data and did not undertake site-specific toxicity testing.     

A procedure for incorporating spatial variability in ecological risk assessment of Dutch river floodplains

Floodplain soils along the river Rhine in the Netherlands show a large spatial variability in pollutant concentrations. For an accurate ecological risk characterization of the river floodplains, this heterogeneity has to be included into the ecological risk assessment. In this paper a procedure is presented that incorporates spatial components of exposure into the risk assessment by linking geographical information systems (GIS) with models that estimate exposure for the most sensitive species of a floodplain. The procedure uses readily available site-specific data and is applicable to a wide range of locations and floodplain management scenarios. The procedure is applied to estimate exposure risks to metals for a typical foodweb in the Afferdensche and Deestsche Waarden floodplain along the river Waal, the main branch of the Rhine in the Netherlands. Spatial variability of pollutants is quantified by overlaying appropriate topographic and soil maps resulting in the definition of homogeneous pollution units. Next to that, GIS is used to include foraging behavior of the exposed terrestrial organisms. Risk estimates from a probabilistic exposure model were used to construct site-specific risk maps for the floodplain. Based on these maps, recommendations for future management of the floodplain can be made that aim at both ecological rehabilitation and an optimal flood defense.     

Veterinary drugs in groundwater in a dairy region of central Argentina and risk assessment for human health

Veterinary drugs used in dairy production are potential contaminants of surface or groundwater sources, being able to affect human and environmental health. It is known that chronic exposure to antibiotics in low concentrations present in water can generate microbial resistance. This study aimed to evaluate the presence of veterinary drugs in 53 groundwater samples used for animal and human consumption, collected in dairy milking parlors, in an important milk-producing area of central Argentina, and to assess the risk to human health when they are used as drinking water. In 75% of the total samples analyzed, at least one veterinary drug was detected. The most frequently found drugs in water samples were the antibiotics tetracycline in 58.5% and oxytetracycline in 56.6%, and an anti-inflammatory, flunixin in 39.6%. In the water samples, the tetracycline and oxytetracycline concentrations were between 0.1 and 5.3 μg/L and flunixin concentrations were between 0.01 and 2.1 μg/L. The frequency of appearance and the concentration levels of the substances found in the water samples were evaluated according to the productivity, size, and production system (confined or pasture) of the dairy farms. Higher concentrations and proportions of water samples containing antibiotics were observed when the number of animals per dairy farm was >182 and when the productivity was high (>25 liters per animal per day). In the case of flunixin, the percentage of detection was similar in all evaluated categories. The risk assessment for children and adults, considering the intake of drinking water containing residues of these drugs, did not indicate a significant health risk. It would be advisable to evaluate other sources of drinking water, both surface and underground, in other regions of the country, to provide data to assess the impact of these substances and the other contaminants on environmental and human health.     

A Watershed-Scale Model for Predicting Nonpoint Pollution Risk in North Carolina

The Southeastern United States is a global center of freshwater biotic diversity, but much of the regions aquatic biodiversity is at risk from stream degradation. Nonpoint pollution sources are responsible for 70% of that degradation, and controlling nonpoint pollution from agriculture, urbanization, and silviculture is considered critical to maintaining water quality and aquatic biodiversity in the Southeast. We used an ecological risk assessment framework to develop vulnerability models that can help policymakers and natural resource managers understand the impact of land cover changes on water quality in North Carolina. Additionally, we determined which landscape characteristics are most closely associated with macroinvertebrate community tolerance of stream degradation, and therefore with lower-quality water. The results will allow managers and policymakers to weigh the risks of management and policy decisions to a given watershed or set of watersheds, including whether streamside buffer protection zones are ecologically effective in achieving water quality standards. Regression analyses revealed that landscape variables explained up to 56.3% of the variability in benthic macroinvertebrate index scores. The resulting vulnerability models indicate that North Carolina watersheds with less forest cover are at most risk for degraded water quality and steam habitat conditions. The importance of forest cover, at both the watershed and riparian zone scale, in predicting macrobenthic invertebrate community assemblage varies by geographic region of the state.     

Adaptive management for mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in source water: A case study in an agricultural catchment in South Australia

Water-borne pathogens such as Cryptosporidium pose a significant human health risk and catchments provide the first critical pollution ‘barrier’ in mitigating risk in drinking water supply. In this paper we apply an adaptive management framework to mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in source water using a case study of the Myponga catchment in South Australia. Firstly, we evaluated the effectiveness of past water quality management programs in relation to the adoption of practices by landholders using a socio-economic survey of land use and management in the catchment. The impact of past management on the mitigation of Cryptosporidium risk in source water was also evaluated based on analysis of water quality monitoring data. Quantitative risk assessment was used in planning the next round of management in the adaptive cycle. Specifically, a pathogen budget model was used to identify the major remaining sources of Cryptosporidium in the catchment and estimate the mitigation impact of 30 alternative catchment management scenarios. Survey results show that earlier programs have resulted in the comprehensive adoption of best management practices by dairy farmers including exclusion of stock from watercourses and effluent management from 2000 to 2007. Whilst median Cryptosporidium concentrations in source water have decreased since 2004 they remain above target levels and put pressure on other barriers to mitigate risk, particularly the treatment plant. Non-dairy calves were identified as the major remaining source of Cryptosporidium in the Myponga catchment. The restriction of watercourse access of non-dairy calves could achieve a further reduction in Cryptosporidium export to the Myponga reservoir of around 90% from current levels. The adaptive management framework applied in this study was useful in guiding learning from past management, and in analysing, planning and refocussing the next round of catchment management strategies to achieve water quality targets.     

The study of a method of regional environmental risk assessment

Regional environmental risk assessment can be defined as risk assessment which deals with a spatial scale that contains multiple habitats with multiple sources of many stressors affecting multiple endpoints. The characteristics of the landscape also affect the estimated risk. In this paper, an information diffusion method based on a grid system is proposed to assess regional environmental risk. The risk information on a single environmental risk source can be diffused effectively by using fuzzy set theory. Regional environmental risk values obtained from information diffusion can be clustered on classification criteria and different environmental risk levels can be depicted in a spatial partition map. Huangge Town and Nansha Town located in the Nansha Area of Guangzhou City in China were selected as model cases. The results derived from this information diffusion method will help the local government to optimize the distribution of industrial areas and establish risk prevention measurements and emergency management procedures.     

An analysis of assessment outcomes from eight years' operation of the Australian border weed risk assessment system

The majority of Australian weeds are exotic plant species that were intentionally introduced for a variety of horticultural and agricultural purposes. A border weed risk assessment system (WRA) was implemented in 1997 in order to reduce the high economic costs and massive environmental damage associated with introducing serious weeds. We review the behaviour of this system with regard to eight years of data collected from the assessment of species proposed for importation or held within genetic resource centres in Australia. From a taxonomic perspective, species from the Chenopodiaceae and Poaceae were most likely to be rejected and those from the Arecaceae and Flacourtiaceae were most likely to be accepted. Dendrogram analysis and classification and regression tree (TREE) models were also used to analyse the data. The latter revealed that a small subset of the 35 variables assessed was highly associated with the outcome of the original assessment. The TREE model examining all of the data contained just five variables: unintentional human dispersal, congeneric weed, weed elsewhere, tolerates or benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire, and reproduction by vegetative propagation. It gave the same outcome as the full WRA model for 71% of species. Weed elsewhere was not the first splitting variable in this model, indicating that the WRA has a capacity for capturing species that have no history of weediness. A reduced TREE model (in which human-mediated variables had been removed) contained four variables: broad climate suitability, reproduction in less or than equal to 1year, self-fertilisation, and tolerates and benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire. It yielded the same outcome as the full WRA model for 65% of species. Data inconsistencies and the relative importance of questions are discussed, with some recommendations made for improving the use of the system.     

Applying Ecological Risk Principles to Watershed Assessment and Management

Considerable progress in addressing point source (end of pipe) pollution problems has been made, but it is now recognized that further substantial environmental improvements depend on controlling nonpoint source pollution. A watershed approach is being used more frequently to address these problems because traditional regulatory approaches do not focus on nonpoint sources. The watershed approach is organized around the guiding principles of partnerships, geographic focus, and management based on sound science and data. This helps to focus efforts on the highest priority problems within hydrologically-defined geographic areas. Ecological risk assessment is a process to collect, organize, analyze, and present scientific information to improve decision making. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sponsored three watershed assessments and found that integrating the watershed approach with ecological risk assessment increases the use of environmental monitoring and assessment data in decision making. This paper describes the basics of the watershed approach, the ecological risk assessment process, and how these two frameworks can be integrated. The three major principles of watershed ecological risk assessment found to be most useful for increasing the use of science in decision making are (1) using assessment endpoints and conceptual models, (2) holding regular interactions between scientists and managers, and (3) developing a focus for multiple stressor analysis. Examples are provided illustrating how these principles were implemented in these assessments.     

Risk assessment for selected xenobiotics by bioassay methods with higher plants

Different bioassays with higher plants were approved for use in a bioassay procedure for testing of xenobiotics according to the German Chemicals Act. Selected environmental pollutants (atrazine, cadmium chloride, 2,6-dichlorobenzonitrile, pentachlorophenol, potassium dichromate, thiourea), all from a list of reference chemicals, were tested with these methods. Dose-response curves for growth of oats and turnips were evaluated in soil and vermiculite (nonsorptive substrate), and availability to plants was calculated by comparing the EC₅₀ values for one chemical in both substrates. The most active chemical was atrazine, followed by 2,6-dichlorobenzonitrile, pentachlorophenol, potassium dichromate, cadmium chloride, and thiourea. The least available compound to plants was pentachlorophenol, tested with turnips (Brassica rapa var.rapa). The strongest inhibition of germination, demonstrated in an in vitro assay with garden cress (Lepidium sativum), was found with 2,6-dichlorobenzonitrile, the lowest with atrazine. The effect of an extended exposure of the plants to the chemicals was evaluated in a long-term bioassay with oats (Avena sativa) in hydroponic culture. Several dose-response curves during the growing period were derived. It was found that the EC₅₀ values for atrazine and thiourea decreased markedly during the first four weeks; thereafter the changes were much smaller. As an overall conclusion, a bioassay procedure is proposed that can be included in the graduated plan recommended by the German Chemicals Act.     

Ecosystem management to achieve ecological sustainability: The case of South Florida

The ecosystems of South Florida are unique in the world. The defining features of the natural Everglades (large spatial scale, temporal patterns of water storage and sheetflow, and low nutrient levels) historically allowed a mosaic of habitats with characteristic animals. Massive hydrological alterations have halved the Everglades, and ecological sustainability requires fundamental changes in management.The US Man and the Biosphere Human-Dominated Systems Directorate is conducting a case study of South Florida using ecosystem management as a framework for exploring options for mutually dependent sustainability of society and the environment. A new methodology was developed to specify sustainability goals, characterize human factors affecting the ecosystem, and conduct scenario/consequence analyses to examine ecological and societal implications. South Florida has sufficient water for urban, agricultural, and ecological needs, but most water drains to the sea through the system of canals; thus, the issue is not competition for resources but storage and management of water. The goal is to reestablish the natural system for water quantity, timing, and distribution over a sufficient area to restore the essence of the Everglades.The societal sustainability in the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) is at risk because of soil degradation, vulnerability of sugar price supports, policies affecting Cuban sugar imports, and political/economic forces aligned against sugar production. One scenario suggested using the EAA for water storage while under private sugar production, thereby linking sustainability of the ecological system with societal sustainability. Further analyses are needed, but the US MAB project suggests achieving ecological sustainability consistent with societal sustainability may be feasible.     

Fuzzy decision analysis for integrated environmental vulnerability assessment of the mid-Atlantic Region

A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators was developed. This was a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The method was capable of ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumulative impacts across a large region. Using data on land cover, population, roads, streams, air pollution, and topography of the Mid-Atlantic region, we were able to point out areas that were in relatively poor condition and/or vulnerable to future deterioration. The method offered an easy and comprehensive way to combine the strengths of fuzzy set theory and the AHP for ecological assessment. Furthermore, the suggested method can serve as a building block for the evaluation of environmental policies.     

A weed risk assessment model for use as a biosecurity tool evaluating plant introductions

New plant taxa from around the world continue to be imported into Australia and New Zealand. Many of these taxa have the potential to become agricultural or environmental weeds and this risk needs to be assessed before allowing their entry. A weed risk assessment system is described that uses information on a taxon's current weed status in other parts of the world, climate and environmental preferences, and biological attributes. The system is designed to be operated by quarantine personnel via a user-friendly computer interface.The model was tested against experts' scores for weediness for 370 taxa present in Australia, representing both weeds and useful taxa from agriculture, the environment, and other sectors. The model was judged on its ability to correctly ‘reject’ weeds, ‘accept’ non-weeds, and generate a low proportion of taxa which could not be decisively categorised, termed ‘evaluate’. More than 70% of the taxa were rejected or accepted. All taxa classified as serious weeds, and most minor weeds, were rejected or required further evaluation, while only 7% of non-weeds were rejected. The model was modified to New Zealand conditions and evaluated against the opinions of several groups of experts and against economic measures. The model produced a weediness score very similar to the mean of the experts scores. The latter were highly variable: agriculturalists tended to accept known weeds, conservationists tended to reject most adventive taxa, and only botanists produced scores similar to the model. The model scores also tended to be independent of economic value as measured in this study. The model could be adapted for use as a screening tool in any region of the world.     

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making.     

Indirect Effects in Aquatic Ecotoxicology: Implications for Ecological Risk Assessment

Understanding toxicant effects at higher levels of biological organization continues to be a challenge in ecotoxicology and ecological risk assessment. This is due in part to a tradition in ecotoxicology of considering the direct effects of toxicants on a limited number of model test species. However, the indirect effects of toxicity may be a significant factor influencing the manner in which ecosystem structure and function respond to anthropogenic stressors. Subsequently, failure to incorporate indirect effects into risk assessment paradigms may be a significant source of uncertainty in risk estimates. The current paper addresses the importance of indirect effects in an ecotoxicological context. Laboratory, mesocosm, and whole ecosystem research into indirect effects is reviewed. The implications of indirect effects for ecological risk assessment and potential areas of profitable future research are also discussed.     

A national critical loads framework for atmospheric deposition effects assessment: II. Defining assessment end points,indicators, and functional subregions

The United States Environmental Protection Agency, with support from the US Department of Energy and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, has been evaluating the feasibility of an effects-based (critical loads) approach to atmospheric pollutant regulation and abatement. The rationale used to develop three of the six steps in a flexible assessment framework (Strickland and others, 1992) is presented along with a discussion of a variety of implementation approaches and their ramifications. The rationale proposes that it is necessary to provide an explicit statement of the condition of the resource that is considered valuable (assessment end point) because: (1) individual ecosystem components may be more or less sensitive to deposition, (2) it is necessary to select indicators of ecosystem condition that can be objectively measured and that reflect changes in the quality of the assessment end point, and (3) acceptable status (i.e., value of indicator and quality of assessment end point at critical load) must be defined. The rationale also stresses the importance of defining the assessment regions and subregions to improve the analysis and understanding of the indicator response to deposition. Subregional definition can be based on a variety of criteria, including informed judgment or quantitative procedures. It also depends on the geographic scale at which exposure and effects models are accurate and on data availability, resolution, and quality. The research described in this article has been funded by the US Environmental Protection Agency. This document has been prepared at the EPA Environmental Research Laboratory in Corvallis, Oregon, through contract #68-C8-0006 with ManTech Environmental Technology, Inc., and Interagency Agreement #1824-B014-A7 with the US Department of Energy and at Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed by Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., under Contract DE-AC05-84OR21400 with the US Department of Energy. Environmental Sciences Division Publication No. 3903. It has been subjected to the agency’s peer and administrative review and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.     

Application of environmental risk assessment for strategic decision-making in coastal areas: case studies in China

Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is a powerful technical tool for analyzing potential and extreme adverse environmental impacts, and has found wide application in supporting decision-making processes over the last two decades. However, to date there has been no interrelated application of ERA to support the processes of strategic decision-making (SDM), especially in coastal areas.

In this paper, we attempt to verify the feasibility of the proposed integrated ERA–SDM approach and its methodology by applying it to two case studies (in Xiamen Bay and Luoyuan Bay) of the principal coastal functional zoning (PCFZ, a kind of SDM and similar to the coastal and marine spatial planning in western). The results show that the integrated ERA–SDM approach could integrate ERA into the entire SDM process, directly support the PCFZ, and avoid or mitigate dire environmental risk that can be introduced by SDM processes.     

A conceptual model for assessing ecological risk to water quality function of bottomland hardwood forests

Ecological risk assessment provides a methodology for evaluating the threats to ecosystem function associated with environmental perturbations or stressors. This report documents the development of a conceptual model for assessing the ecological risk to the water quality function (WQF) of bottomland hardwood riparian ecosystems (BHRE) in the Tifton-Vidalia upland (TVU) ecoregion of Georgia. Previus research has demonstrated that mature BHRE are essential to maintaining water quality in this portion of the coastal plain. The WQF of these ecosystems is considered an assessment endpoit—an ecosystem function or set of functions that society chooses to value as evidenced by laws, regulations, or common usage. Stressors operate on ecosystems at risk through an exposure scenario to produce ecological effects that are linked to loss of the desired function or assessment end point. The WQF of BHRE is at risk because of the ecological and environmental quality effects of a suite of chemical, physical, and biological stressors. The stressors are related to nonpoint source pollution from adjacent land uses, especially agriculture; the conversion of BHRE to other land uses; and the encroachment of domestic animals into BHRE. Potential chemical, physical, and biological stressors to BHRE are identified, and the methodology for evaluating appropriate exposure scenarios is discussed. Field-scale and watershed-scale measurement end points of most use in assessing the effects of stressors on the WQF are identified and discussed. The product of this study is a conceptual model of how risks to the WQF of BHRE are produced and how the risk and associated uncertainties can be quantified.     

Confronting flood risk: implications for insurance and risk transfer

The UK floods in late 2000 reinforced an emerging awareness which questioned the long-term sustainability of an exclusive reliance on hard-engineered flood defences to protect the UK population against increased flood risk. The debate has subsequently focused on a broader interpretation of the risks associated with flooding. This paper explores the notion that, although social and technical issues are already being integrated to understand and manage flood, practitioners are now realising the importance of accommodating public hazard understanding and perception of risk into their management models, and there remains a need to fit such ideas to the insurance-based system of flood management in the UK.