Corn-Based Ethanol Production and Environmental Quality: A Case of Iowa and the Conservation Reserve Program

Growing demand for corn due to the expansion of ethanol has increased concerns that environmentally sensitive lands retired from agricultural production and enrolled into the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) will be cropped again. Iowa produces more ethanol than any other state in the United States, and it also produces the most corn. Thus, an examination of the impacts of higher crop prices on CRP land in Iowa can give insight into what we might expect nationally in the years ahead if crop prices remain high. We construct CRP land supply curves for various corn prices and then estimate the environmental impacts of cropping CRP land through the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. EPIC provides edge-of-field estimates of soil erosion, nutrient loss, and carbon sequestration. We find that incremental impacts increase dramatically as higher corn prices bring into production more and more environmentally fragile land. Maintaining current levels of environmental quality will require substantially higher spending levels. Even allowing for the cost savings that would accrue as CRP land leaves the program, a change in targeting strategies will likely be required to ensure that the most sensitive land does not leave the program.     

Model Based Nitrate TMDLs for Two Agricultural Watersheds of Southeastern Minnesota1

Abstract: In this study, a set of nitrogen reduction strategies were modeled to evaluate the feasibility of improving water quality to meet total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) in two agricultural watersheds. For this purpose, a spatial‐process model was calibrated and used to predict monthly nitrate losses (1994‐96) from Sand and Bevens Creek watersheds located in south‐central Minnesota. Statistical comparison of predicted and observed flow and nitrate losses gave r² coefficients of 0.75 and 0.70 for Sand Creek watershed and 0.72 and 0.67 for Bevens Creek watershed, respectively. Modeled alternative agricultural management scenarios included: six different N application rates over three application timings and three different percentages of crop land with subsurface drainage. Predicted annual nitrate losses were then compared with nitrate TMDLs assuming a 30% reduction in observed nitrate losses is required. Reductions of about 33 (8.6 to 5.8 kg/ha) and 35% (23 to 15 kg/ha) in existing annual nitrate losses are possible for Sand and Bevens Creek watersheds, respectively, by switching the timing of fertilizer application from fall to spring. Trends towards increases in tile‐drained crop land imply that attaining nitrate TMDLs in future may require other alternative management practices in addition to fertilizer management such as partial conversion of crop land to pasture.     

Effects of watershed-scale land use change on stream nitrate concentrations

The Walnut Creek Watershed Monitoring Project was conducted from 1995 through 2005 to evaluate the response of stream nitrate concentrations to changing land use patterns in paired 5000-ha Iowa watersheds. A large portion of the Walnut Creek watershed is being converted from row crop agriculture to native prairie and savanna by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service at the Neal Smith National Wildlife Refuge (NSNWR). Before restoration, land use in both Walnut Creek (treatment) and Squaw Creek (control) watersheds consisted of 70% row crops. Between 1990 and 2005, row crop area decreased 25.4% in Walnut Creek due to prairie restoration but increased 9.2% in Squaw Creek due to Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grassland conversion back to row crop. Nitrate concentrations ranged between <0.5 to 14 mg L(-1) at the Walnut Creek outlet and 2.1 to 15 mg L(-1) at the downstream Squaw Creek outlet. Nitrate concentrations decreased 1.2 mg L(-1) over 10 yr in the Walnut Creek watershed but increased 1.9 mg L(-1) over 10 yr in Squaw Creek. Changes in nitrate were easier to detect and more pronounced in monitored subbasins, decreasing 1.2 to 3.4 mg L(-1) in three Walnut Creek subbasins, but increasing up to 8.0 and 11.6 mg L(-1) in 10 yr in two Squaw Creek subbasins. Converting row crop lands to grass reduced stream nitrate levels over time in Walnut Creek, but stream nitrate rapidly increased in Squaw Creek when CRP grasslands were converted back to row crop. Study results highlight the close association of stream nitrate to land use change and emphasize that grasslands or other perennial vegetation placed in agricultural settings should be part of a long-term solution to water quality problems.     

SIMULATING HYDROLOGIC AND WATER QUALITY IMPACTS IN AN URBANIZING WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: The Hydrologic Simulation Program‐Fortran (HSPF) was calibrated and used to assess the future effects of various land development scenarios on water quality in the Polecat Creek watershed in Caroline County, Virginia. Model parameters related to hydrology and water quality were calibrated and validated using observed stream flow and water quality data collected at the watershed outlet and the outlets of two sub water sheds. Using the county's Comprehensive Plan, land use scenarios were developed by taking into account the trends and spatial distributions of future development. The simulation results for the various land use scenarios indicate that runoff volume and peak rate increased as urban areas increased. Urbanization also increased sediment loads mainly due to increases in channel erosion. Constituent loads of total Kjeldal nitrogen, orthophosphorus, and total phosphorous for Polecat Creek watershed slightly decreased under future development scenarios. These reductions are due to increases in urban areas that typically contribute smaller quantities of nitrogen and phosphorous, as compared to agricultural areas. However, nitrate loads increased for the future land use scenarios, as compared to the existing land use. The increases in nitrate loads may result from increases in residential land and associated fertilizer use and concurrent decreases in forested land. The procedures used in this paper could assist local, state, and regional policy makers in developing land management strategies that minimize environmental impacts while allowing for future development.     

Agricultural and recreational impacts of the conservation reserve program in rural North Dakota, USA

The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), created in 1985, provides conservation benefits and agricultural supply control through voluntary, long-term retirement of crop land. While the effects of the CRP on the agricultural sector are well understood, the implications of its conservation benefits for rural economies remain largely undocumented. To quantify the effects on rural economies, this study addressed the net economic effects of decreased agricultural activity and increased recreational activity associated with the CRP in six rural areas of North Dakota from 1996 to 2000. Based on the level of economic activity that would have occurred in the absence of the program, net revenues from CRP land if returned to agricultural production in the six study areas were estimated at $50.2 million annually or $37 per acre of land currently enrolled in the CRP. Recreational (hunting) revenues as a result of the CRP in the study areas were estimated at $12.8 million annually or $9.45 per CRP-acre. The net economic effect of the CRP (lost agricultural revenues and gains in recreational expenditures) indicated that several areas of the state are not as economically burdened by the CRP as previous research has suggested. In addition, the net economic effects of the program would appear more favourable if revenues from all CRP-based recreation were included. The degree that recreational revenues offset agricultural losses might be further enhanced by enterprises that capitalize on the economic opportunities associated with expanded recreational activities on CRP lands.     

Nonpoint Source Pollution Responses Simulation for Conversion Cropland to Forest in Mountains by SWAT in China

Several environmental protection policies have been implemented to prevent soil erosion and nonpoint source (NPS) pollutions in China. After severe Yangtze River floods, the “conversion cropland to forest policy” (CCFP) was carried out throughout China, especially in the middle and upper reaches of Yangtze River. The research area of the current study is located in Bazhong City, Sichuan Province in Yangtze River watershed, where soil erosion and NPS pollution are serious concerns. Major NPS pollutants include nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). The objective of this study is to evaluate the long-term impact of implementation of the CCFP on stream flow, sediment yields, and the main NPS pollutant loading at watershed level. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a watershed environmental model and is applied here to simulate and quantify the impacts. Four scenarios are constructed representing different patterns of conversion from cropland to forest under various conditions set by the CCFP. Scenario A represented the baseline, i.e., the cropland and forest area conditions before the implementation of CCFP. Scenario B represents the condition under which all hillside cropland with slope larger than 25° was converted into forest. In scenario C and D, hillside cropland with slope larger than 15° and 7.5° was substituted by forest, respectively. Under the various scenarios, the NPS pollution reduction due to CCFP implementation from 1996–2005 is estimated by SWAT. The results are presented as percentage change of water flow, sediment, organic N, and organic P at watershed level. Furthermore, a regression analysis is conducted between forest area ratio and ten years’ average NPS load estimations, which confirmed the benefits of implementing CCFP in reducing nonpoint source pollution by increasing forest area in mountainous areas. The reduction of organic N and organic P is significant (decrease 42.1% and 62.7%, respectively) at watershed level. In addition, this study also proves that SWAT modeling approach can be used to estimate NPS pollutants’ impacts of land use conversions in large watershed.     

WATERSHEDSS: A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR WATERSHED-SCALE NONPOINT SOURCE WATER QUALITY PROBLEMS1

ABSTRACT: A significant portion of all pollutants entering surface waters (streams, lakes, estuaries, and wetlands) derives from non-point source (NPS) pollution and, in particular, agricultural activities. The first step in restoring a water resource is to focus on the primary water quality problem in the watershed. The most appropriate NPS control measures, which include best management practices (BMPs) and landscape features, such as wetlands and riparian areas, can then be selected and positioned to minimize or mitigate the identified pollutant(s). A computer-based decision sup. port and educational software system, WATERSHEDSS (WATER, Soil, and Hydro-Environmental Decision Support System), has been developed to aid managers in defining their water quality problems and selecting appropriate NPS control measures. The three primary objectives of WATERSHEDSS are (1) to transfer water quality and land treatment information to watershed managers in order to assist them with appropriate land management/land treatment decisions; (2) to assess NPS pollution in a watershed based on user-supplied information and decisions; and (3) to evaluate, through geographical information systems-assisted modeling, the water quality effects of alternative land treatment scenarios. WATERSHEDSS is available on the World Wide Web (Web) at http://h2osparc.wq.ncsu.edu .     

LAND USE AND AQUATIC BIOINTEGRITY IN THE BLACKFOOT RWER WATERSHED,MONTANA1

ABSTRACT: Benthic macroinvertebrate samples representing 151 taxa were collected in August 1995 to examine the linkage between land use, water quality, and aquatic biointegrity in seven tributaries of the Blackfoot River watershed, Montana. The tributaries represent silvicultural (timber harvesting), agricultural (irrigated alfalfa and hay and livestock grazing), and wilderness land uses. A 2.4 km (1.5 mile) reach of a recently restored tributary also was sampled for comparison with the other six sites. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to characterize the seven subwatersheds and estimate soil erosion, using the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation, and sediment delivery. The wilderness stream had the highest aquatic biointegrity. Two agricultural streams had the largest estimated soil erosion and sediment delivery rates, the greatest habitat impairment from nonpoint source pollution, and the most impoverished macroinvertebrate communities. The silvicultural subwatersheds had greater rates of estimated soil erosion and sediment delivery and lower aquatic biointegrity than the wilderness reference site but evinced better conditions than the agricultural sites. A multiple-use (forestry, grazing, and wildlife management) watershed and the restored site ranked between the silvicultural and agricultural sites. This spectrum of land use and aquatic biointegrity illustrates both the challenges and opportunities that define watershed management.     

Energetics and environmental costs of agriculture in a dry tropical region of India

The present article, based on a study of five village ecosystems, assesses the energy efficiency of rain-fed agriculture in a dry tropical environment and the impact of agricultural activity on the surrounding natural ecosystems. Agronomic yield is insufficient to meet the food requirement of the human population, hence 11.5%–49.7% of the required amount of food grains are imported from the market. Energy requirements of five studied agroecosystems are subsidized considerably by the surrounding forest in the form of fodder and firewood. Natural ecosystems supply about 80%–95% of fodder needs and 81%–100% of fuelwood needs. The output-input ratio of agriculture indicated that, on average, 4.1 units of energy are expended to obtain one unit of agronomic energy. Of this, 3.9 units are supplied by the natural ecosystem. In addition, 38% of the extracted firewood is marketed. The illegal felling and lopping of trees result in ever-increasing concentric circles of forest destruction around the villages and together with excessive grazing results in savannization. The forests can be conserved by encouraging fuelwood plantations (0.7 ha/ha cultivated land) and developing village pastures (1.6 ha/ha cultivated land) and reducing the livestock numbers. Agricultural production in the region can be stabilized by introducing improved dry farming techniques such as intercropping, planned rainwater management, and adequate use of fertilizers.     

Modeling the relationship between land use and surface water quality

It is widely known that watershed hydrology is dependent on many factors, including land use, climate, and soil conditions. But the relative impacts of different types of land use on the surface water are yet to be ascertained and quantified. This research attempted to use a comprehensive approach to examine the hydrologic effects of land use at both a regional and a local scale. Statistical and spatial analyses were employed to examine the statistical and spatial relationships of land use and the flow and water quality in receiving waters on a regional scale in the State of Ohio. Besides, a widely accepted watershed-based water quality assessment tool, the Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS), was adopted to model the plausible effects of land use on water quality in a local watershed in the East Fork Little Miami River Basin. The results from the statistical analyses revealed that there was a significant relationship between land use and in-stream water quality, especially for nitrogen, phosphorus and Fecal coliform. The geographic information systems (GIS) spatial analyses identified the watersheds that have high levels of contaminants and percentages of agricultural and urban lands. Furthermore, the hydrologic and water quality modeling showed that agricultural and impervious urban lands produced a much higher level of nitrogen and phosphorus than other land surfaces. From this research, it seems that the approach adopted in this study is comprehensive, covering both the regional and local scales. It also reveals that BASINS is a very useful and reliable tool, capable of characterizing the flow and water quality conditions for the study area under different watershed scales. With little modification, these models should be able to adapt to other watersheds or to simulate other contaminants. They also can be used to study the plausible impacts of global environmental change. In addition, the information on the hydrologic effects of land use is very useful. It can provide guidelines not only for resource managers in restoring our aquatic ecosystems, but also for local planners in devising viable and ecologically-sound watershed development plans, as well as for policy makers in evaluating alternate land management decisions.     

Potential Economic Benefits of Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Future Climate Change

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO₂ emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.     

Potential of the Conservation Reserve Program to control agricultural surface water pollution

The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), initiated by the Conservation Title of the Food Security Act of 1985, is the primary federal program to control nonpointsource pollution in agricultural watersheds of the United States. However, the program is designed primarily to reduce soil erosion rather than to retire croplands in a manner optimal for controlling runoff of sediment and associated pollutants. This study estimates potential enrollment of streamside and floodplain croplands in this ten-year retirement program in order to gauge the potential of the CRP as a water-quality improvement policy. A contingent choice survey design was employed in Fayette County, Illinois, to demonstrate that there is substantial potential for retirement of streamside and floodplain croplands in the CRP. Enrollments in each program climb from less than 6% to over 83% of eligible croplands as the annual rental rate is increased from $20 to $200/acre. Potential retirement of streamside and floodplain croplands declines, however, if tree planting, drainage removal, or a 20-year contract are required. The potential of a CRP-based water-quality program to improve water quality and aquatic ecosystems in agricultural watersheds is thus substantial but constrained by the economic trade-offs that farmers make between crop production and conservation incentives in determining the use of their riparian lands.     

WALNUT CREEK WATERSHED MONITORING PROJECT,IOWA MONITORING WATER QUALITY IN RESPONSE TO PRAIRIE RESTORATION1

ABSTRACT: Land use and surface water data for nitrogen and pesticides (1995 to 1997) are reported for the Walnut Creek Watershed Monitoring Project, Jasper County Iowa. The Walnut Creek project was established in 1995 as a nonpoint source monitoring program in relation to watershed habitat restoration and agricultural management changes implemented at the Neal Smith National Wildlife Refuge by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The monitoring project utilizes a paired‐watershed approach (Walnut and Squaw creeks) as well as upstream/downstream comparisons on Walnut for analysis and tracking of trends. From 1992 to 1997, 13.4 percent of the watershed was converted from row crop to native prairie in the Walnut Creek watershed. Including another 6 percent of watershed farmed on a cash‐rent basis, land use changes have been implemented on 19.4 percent of the watershed by the USFWS. Nitrogen and pesticide applications were reduced an estimated 18 percent and 28 percent in the watershed from land use changes. Atrazine was detected most often in surface water with frequencies of detection ranging from 76–86 percent. No significant differences were noted in atrazine concentrations between Walnut and Squaw Creek. Nitrate‐N concentrations measured in both watersheds were similar; both basins showed a similar pattern of detection and an overall reduction in nitrate‐N concentrations from upstream to downstream monitoring sites. Water quality improvements are suggested by nitrate‐N and chloride ratios less than one in the Walnut Creek watershed and low nitrate‐N concentrations measured in the subbasin of Walnut Creek containing the greatest amount of land use changes. Atrazine and nitrate‐N concentrations from the lower portion of the Walnut Creek watershed (including the prairie restoration area) may be decreasing in relation to the upstream untreated component of the watershed. The frequencies of pesticide detections and mean nitrate‐N concentrations appear related to the percentage of row crop in the basins and subbasins. Although some results are encouraging, definitive water quality improvements have not been observed during the first three years of monitoring. Possible reasons include: (1) more time is needed to adequately detect changes; (2) the size of the watershed is too large to detect improvements; (3) land use changes are not located in the area of the watershed where they would have greatest effect; or (4) water quality improvements have occurred but have been missed by the project monitoring design. Longer‐term monitoring will allow better evaluation of the impact of restoration activities on water quality.     

A multicriteria approach for mapping risks of agricultural pollution for water resources: The Venice Lagoon watershed case study

A multicriteria analysis system was developed for producing risk maps of agricultural pollution due to alternative cultivation systems in the Watershed of the Lagoon of Venice (WLV) in Italy. Results of a field-scale simulation model for agricultural diffuse pollution were used to compile a matrix of environmental impacts, in terms of pollution indices. The most widespread combinations of typical environments (as defined by combinations of soil and climate variables) and alternative land uses (types of crops and cultivation systems) were described in the impact matrix. Land use in terms of crop distribution was based on census data. Two alternative cultivation systems were defined on the basis of the recent changes to the European Common Agricultural Policy: ordinary and eco-compatible. The effects of alternative scenarios were evaluated in terms of pollution risks for water resources. The evaluation procedure was built into the framework of a geographical information system to take into account the spatial features of pollution phenomena, vulnerability of the land and risk for water resources. The results demonstrated the great potential of eco-compatible practices for reducing the risks for surface and groundwater (−15 and −50%, respectively).     

Use of avian and mammalian guilds as indicators of cumulative impacts in riparian-wetland areas

A new method of assessing cumulative effects of human activities on bird and mammal communities of riparian-wetland areas was developed by using response guilds to reflect how species theoretically respond to habitat disturbance on a landscape level. All bird and mammal species of Pennsylvania were assigned values for each response guild using documented information for each species, to reflect their sensitivity to disturbances; high guild scores corresponded to low tolerance toward habitat disturbance. We hypothesized that, given limited time and resources, determining how wildife communities change in response to environmental impacts can be done more efficiently with a response-guild approach than a single-species approach. To test the model, censuses of birds and mammals were conducted along wetland and riparian areas of a protected and a disturbed watershed in central Pennsylvania. The percent of bird species with high response-guild scores (i.e., species that had specific habitat requirements and/or were neotropical migrants) remained relatively stable through the protected watershed. As intensity of habitat alteration increased through the disturbed watershed, percentage of bird species with high response-guild scores decreased. Only 2%–3% of the neotropical migrants that had specific habitat requirements were breeding residents in disturbed habitats as compared to 17%–20% in reference areas. Species in the edge and exotic guild classifications (low guild scores) were found in greater percentages in the disturbed watershed. Composition of mammalian guilds showed no consistent pattern associated with habitat disturbance. Avian response guilds reflected habitat disturbance more predictively than mammalian response guilds.     

INTEGRATING PHOSPHORUS AND NITROGEN DECISION MANAGEMENT AT WATERSHED SCALES1

ABSTRACT: The persistence of water quality problems has directed attention towards the reduction of agricultural nonpoint sources of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N). We assessed the practical impact of three management scenarios to reduce P and N losses from a mixed land use watershed in central Pennsylvania, USA. Using Scenario 1 (an agronomic soil P threshold of 100 mg Mehlich‐3 P kg^‐1, above which no crop response is expected), 81 percent of our watershed would receive no P as fertilizer or manure. Under Scenario 2 (an environmental soil P threshold of 195 mg Mehlich‐3 P kg^‐1, above which the loss of P in surface runoff and subsurface drainage increases greatly), restricts future P inputs in only 51 percent of the watershed. Finally, using scenario 3 (P and N indices that account for likely source and transport risks), 25 percent of the watershed was at high risk or greater of P loss, while 60 percent of the watershed was classified as of high risk of nitrate (NO₃) leaching. Areas at risk of P loss were near the stream channel, while areas at risk of NO₃ leaching were near the boundaries of the watershed, where freely draining soils and high manure and fertilizer N applications coincide. Remedial measures to minimize P export should focus on critical source areas, while remedial measures to reduce N losses should be source based, concentrating on more efficient use of N by crops.     

Evaluating Nonpoint Pollution Policy Using a Tightly Coupled Spatial Decision Support System

Policy makers often must rely on the cumulative impact of independent actions taken by local landowners to achieve environmental goals. The connection between policy, regulation, and local action, however, is often not well understood and, thus, the impact of proposed policies may be difficult to predict. In this study we evaluate the effectiveness of alternative policy scenarios for agricultural set aside programs (e.g., the conservation reserve program administered by the United States Department of Agriculture) in reducing nonpoint pollution. Two alternative policy scenarios are developed and analyzed; one based on the erodibility index (detachment), the other sediment yield (transport). An estimate of the cumulative impact of associated land use change on nonpoint pollution is made using the AGNPS distributed parameter watershed model. This work is completed within the Cypress Creek watershed in southern Illinois. An analysis of the resulting data suggests that the most efficacious regulatory strategy for achieving nonpoint water pollution goals depends, in part, on place-specific land use patterns. This conclusion provides a solid argument for place-based regulatory strategies.     

Geospatial and Temporal Analysis of a 20‐Year Record of Landsat‐Based Water Clarity in Minnesota's 10,000 Lakes

A large 20‐year database on water clarity for all Minnesota lakes ≥8 ha was analyzed statistically for spatial distributions, temporal trends, and relationships with in‐lake and watershed factors that potentially affect lake clarity. The database includes Landsat‐based water clarity estimates expressed in terms of Secchi depth (SD_Landsat), an integrative measure of water quality, for more than 10,500 lakes for time periods centered around 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2005. Minnesota lake clarity is lower (more turbid) in the south and southwest and clearer in the north and northeast; this pattern is evident at the levels of individual lakes and ecoregions. Temporal trends in clarity were detected in ~11% of the lakes: 4.6% had improving clarity and 6.2% had decreasing clarity. Ecoregions in southern and western Minnesota, where agriculture is the predominant land use, had higher percentages of lakes with decreasing clarity than the rest of the state, and small and shallow lakes had higher percentages of decreasing clarity trends than large and deep lakes. The mean SD_Landsat statewide remained stable from 1985 to 2005 but decreased in ecoregions dominated by agricultural land use. Deep lakes had higher clarity than shallow lakes statewide and for lakes grouped by land cover. SD_Landsat decreased as the percentage of agriculture and/or urban area increased at county and catchment levels and it increased with increasing forested land.     

WATERSHED AND LAKE WATER QUALITY ASSESSMENT: AN INTEGRATED MODELING APPROACH1

Watershed planning groups and action agencies seek to understand how lake water quality responds to changes in watershed management. This study developed and demonstrated the applicability of an integrated modeling approach for providing this information. An integrated model linking watershed conditions to water-quality of the receiving lake incorporated the following components: (1) an event-based AGNPS model to estimate watershed pollutant losses; (2) annualization of AGNPS results to produce annual lake pollutant loadings; (3) a base flow separation package, SAM, to estimate base flow; (4) estimates of nutrients in base flow and point sources; and (5) linkage of watershed loadings directly to EUTROMOD lake water quality algorithms. Results are presented for Melvern Lake, a 28-km² multipurpose reservoir with a 900-km² agricultural watershed in east central Kansas. Reasonable estimates of current lake quality were attained using an average phosphorus availability factor of 31 percent to calibrate model results to measured in-lake phosphorus. Comparison of a range of possible scenarios, including all cropland changed to no-till (best case) and all CRP and good-condition grasslands changed to cropland (worst case), indicated only a (4 percent change for in-lake phosphorus and a (2 percent change for chlorophyll a. These results indicated that this watershed is not sensitive to projected changes in land use and management.