Spitsbergen landscape under 20th century climate change: Sørkapp Land

A reaction of the European Arctic landscape to a climate change on the scale of a typical middle-sized region is outlined. A wide scope of the methods was used, first of all field mapping and observations. Glaciers are important in the S?rkapp Land landscape because they cover the majority of its territory and undergo quick recessions as a result of the 20th century warming. Glacial recession influence intensively: relief with Quaternary deposits, waters, animals, vegetation and soils. The most important landscape changes in the 20th century are: uplift of the equilibrium line altitude on glaciers by 100-200 m; large glacial recession in both surface and volume; significant decrease of the land area due to recession of tidewater glaciers; lengthening of the coastline, and especially of glacial cliffs; development of the land water network; start of the plant succession in areas abandoned by glaciers. No isostatic uplift has taken place in S?rkapp Land since the Little Ice Age.     

A Richer,Greener and Smaller Alpine World: Review and Projection of Warming-Induced Plant Cover Change in the Swedish Scandes

Alpine plant life is proliferating, biodiversity is on the rise and the mountain world appears more productive and inviting than ever. Upper range margin rise of trees and low-altitude (boreal) plant species, expansion of alpine grasslands and dwarf-shrub heaths are the modal biotic adjustments during the past few decades, after a century of substantial climate warming in the Swedish Scandes. This course of biotic landscape evolution has reached historical dimensions and broken a multi-millennial trend of plant cover retrogression, alpine tundra expansion, floristic and faunal impoverishment, all imposed by progressive and deterministic neoglacial climate cooling. Continued modest warming over the present century will likely be beneficial to alpine biodiversity, geoecological stability, resilience, sustainable reindeer husbandry and aesthetic landscape qualities. These aspects are highlighted by an integrative review of results from long-term monitoring of subalpine/alpine vegetation in the Swedish Scandes. This forms the basis for some tentative projections of landscape transformations in a potentially warmer future. Notably, these results and projections are not necessarily valid in other regions and differ in some respects from model predictions. Continued monitoring is mandatory as a basis for generation of more realistic vegetation and ecosystem models.     

Reactive nitrogen and the world: 200 years of change

This paper examines the impact of food and energy production on the global N cycle by contrasting N flows in the late-19th century with those of the late-20th century. We have a good understanding of the amounts of reactive N created by humans, and the primary points of loss to the environment. However, we have a poor understanding of nitrogen's rate of accumulation in environmental reservoirs, which is problematic because of the cascading effects of accumulated N in the environment. The substantial regional variability in reactive nitrogen creation, its degree of distribution, and the likelihood of increased rates of reactive-N formation (especially in Asia) in the future creates a situation that calls for the development of a Total Reactive Nitrogen Approach that will optimize food and energy production and protect environmental systems.     

Shifts in winter distribution in birds: effects of global warming and local habitat change

As global warming intensified toward the end of the 20th century, there was a northward shift in winter ranges of bird species in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. These poleward shifts were correlated to local increases in minimum winter temperatures and global temperature anomalies. This evidence, plus other recent results, suggests that during the last two decades global warming has led to massive and widespread biogeographic shifts with potentially major ecological and human consequences. Local habitat changes associated with urban sprawl affected mainly forest birds with more northern winter distributions. In Cape Cod, the effects of warming on bird distributions are more substantial at the start of the 21st century, than those of habitat alteration, but as urban sprawl continues its importance may rival that of global warming.     

Sediment evidence of early eutrophication and heavy metal pollution of Lake Mälaren, central Sweden

Lake M?laren is the water supply and recreation area for more than 1 million people in central Sweden and subject to considerable environmental concern. To establish background data for assessments of contemporary levels of trophy and heavy metal pollution, sediment cores from the lake were analyzed. Diatom-inferred lake-water phosphorus concentrations suggest that pre-20th century nutrient levels in S?dra Bj?rkfj?rden, a basin in the eastern part of M?laren, were higher (c. 10-20 micrograms TP L-1) than previously assumed (c. 6 micrograms TP L-1). Stable lead isotope and lead concentration analyses from 3 basins (S. Bj?rkfj?rden, Gisselfj?rden and Ask?fj?rden) show that the lake was polluted in the 19th century and earlier from extensive metal production and processing in the catchment, particularly in the Bergslagen region. The lake has experienced a substantial improvement of the lead pollution situation in the 20th century following closure of the mining and metal industry. The lead pollution from the old mining industry was large compared to late-20th century pollution from car emissions, burning of fossil fuels and modern industries.     

A boreal invasion in response to climate change? Range shifts and community effects in the borderland between forest and tundra

It has been hypothesized that climate warming will allow southern species to advance north and invade northern ecosystems. We review the changes in the Swedish mammal and bird community in boreal forest and alpine tundra since the nineteenth century, as well as suggested drivers of change. Observed changes include (1) range expansion and increased abundance in southern birds, ungulates, and carnivores; (2) range contraction and decline in northern birds and carnivores; and (3) abundance decline or periodically disrupted dynamics in cyclic populations of small and medium-sized mammals and birds. The first warm spell, 1930–1960, stands out as a period of substantial faunal change. However, in addition to climate warming, suggested drivers of change include land use and other anthropogenic factors. We hypothesize all these drivers interacted, primarily favoring southern generalists. Future research should aim to distinguish between effects of climate and land-use change in boreal and tundra ecosystems.     

Past changes in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, climate and UV radiation

At the last glacial maximum, vast ice sheets covered many continental areas. The beds of some shallow seas were exposed thereby connecting previously separated landmasses. Although some areas were ice-free and supported a flora and fauna, mean annual temperatures were 10-13 degrees C colder than during the Holocene. Within a few millennia of the glacial maximum, deglaciation started, characterized by a series of climatic fluctuations between about 18,000 and 11,400 years ago. Following the general thermal maximum in the Holocene, there has been a modest overall cooling trend, superimposed upon which have been a series of millennial and centennial fluctuations in climate such as the "Little Ice Age spanning approximately the late 13th to early 19th centuries. Throughout the climatic fluctuations of the last 150,000 years, Arctic ecosystems and biota have been close to their minimum extent within the most recent 10,000 years. They suffered loss of diversity as a result of extinctions during the most recent large-magnitude rapid global warming at the end of the last glacial stage. Consequently, Arctic ecosystems and biota such as large vertebrates are already under pressure and are particularly vulnerable to current and projected future global warming. Evidence from the past indicates that the treeline will very probably advance, perhaps rapidly, into tundra areas, as it did during the early Holocene, reducing the extent of tundra and increasing the risk of species extinction. Species will very probably extend their ranges northwards, displacing Arctic species as in the past. However, unlike the early Holocene, when lower relative sea level allowed a belt of tundra to persist around at least some parts of the Arctic basin when treelines advanced to the present coast, sea level is very likely to rise in future, further restricting the area of tundra and other treeless Arctic ecosystems. The negative response of current Arctic ecosystems to global climatic conditions that are apparently without precedent during the Pleistocene is likely to be considerable, particularly as their exposure to co-occurring environmental changes (such as enhanced levels of UV-B, deposition of nitrogen compounds from the atmosphere, heavy metal and acidic pollution, radioactive contamination, increased habitat fragmentation) is also without precedent.     

Global climate change in the instrumental period

The instrumental period of climate history began in the 18th century with the commencement of routine weather observations at fixed sites. Estimates of global-mean climate (e.g. temperature and precipitation) were not possible, however, until the establishment of extensive observing networks midway through the 19th century. This paper reviews our knowledge of global climate change in the instrumental period. Time series of global-mean temperature and precipitation are examined and a comparison is made between two independent 30-year climatologies: 1931-1960 and 1961-1990. Examples are also provided of regional-scale climate changes. Such assessments are important for two reasons. First, they establish the variability of climate on the time-scale of decades, time-scales upon which it is reasonable to plan economic and socio-political activities. Second, and more specifically, they enable us to quantify the magnitude of global-mean climate change which has occurred over this period. Such detailed diagnostic climate information is a necessary, although not sufficient, prerequisite for the detection of global-scale warming which may have occurred due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Some attention is given to explanations of the observed changes in global-mean climate.     

Regional-scale land-cover change during the 20th century and its consequences for biodiversity

Extensive changes in land cover during the 20th century are known to have had detrimental effects on biodiversity in rural landscapes, but the magnitude of change and their ecological effects are not well known on regional scales. We digitized historical maps from the beginning of the 20th century over a 1652 km² study area in southeastern Sweden, comparing it to modern-day land cover with a focus on valuable habitat types. Semi-natural grassland cover decreased by over 96 % in the study area, being largely lost to afforestation and silviculture. Grasslands on finer soils were more likely to be converted into modern grassland or arable fields. However, in addition to remaining semi-natural grassland, today’s valuable deciduous forest and wetland habitats were mostly grazed grassland in 1900. An analysis of the landscape-level biodiversity revealed that plant species richness was generally more related to the modern landscape, with grazing management being a positive influence on species richness.     

Loss of plant species richness and habitat connectivity in grasslands associated with agricultural change in Finland

The drastic loss of seminatural grasslands and the decrease in species diversity in Europe during the 20th century are closely linked to social-economic factors. Development in agricultural production drives land-use changes, and thus controls the capacity of landscapes to maintain biodiversity. In this study, we link agricultural production changes to landscape fragmentation and species diversity. Our results show that the termination of grazing on seminatural grassland caused significant changes in landscape structure and a decline in the number of vascular plant species. The decline of grazed grasslands has been driven mainly by farm-level economic efficiency and profitability interests, which have been connected with agricultural policy measures. Since 1995, when Finland joined the European Union, the area of grazed patches in our study area has again increased as a result of a support scheme for the management of seminatural grasslands.     

Widespread waterborne pollution in central Swedish lakes and the Baltic Sea from pre-industrial mining and metallurgy

Metal pollution is viewed as a modern problem that began in the 19th century and accelerated through the 20th century; however, in many parts of the globe this view is wrong. Here, we studied past waterborne metal pollution in lake sediments from the Bergslagen region in central Sweden, one of many historically important mining regions in Europe. With a focus on lead (including isotopes), we trace mining impacts from a local scale, through a 120-km-long river system draining into Mälaren - Sweden's third largest lake, and finally also the Baltic Sea. Comparison of sediment and peat records shows that pollution from Swedish mining was largely waterborne and that atmospheric deposition was dominated by long-range transport from other regions. Swedish ore lead is detectable from the 10th century, but the greatest impact occurred during the 16th-18th centuries with improvements occurring over recent centuries, i.e., historical pollution > modern industrial pollution.     

Identifying and assessing the potential hydrological function of past artificial forest drainage

Drainage of forested wetlands for increased timber production has profoundly altered the hydrology and water quality of their downstream waterways. Some ditches need network maintenance (DNM), but potential positive effects on tree productivity must be balanced against environmental impacts. Currently, no clear guidelines exist for DNM that strike this balance. Our study helps begin to prioritise DNM by: (1) quantifying ditches by soil type in the 68 km² Krycklan Catchment Study in northern Sweden and (2) using upslope catchment area algorithms on new high-resolution digital elevation models to determine their likelihood to drain water. Ditches nearly doubled the size of the stream network (178–327 km) and 17% of ditches occurred on well-draining sedimentary soils, presumably making DNM unwarranted. Modelling results suggest that 25–50% of ditches may never support flow. With new laser scanning technology, simple mapping and modelling methods can locate ditches and model their function, facilitating efforts to balance DNM with environmental impacts.     

Impact of future climate changes on high pollution levels

Changes in climate variability as well as changes in extreme weather and climate events in the 20th century, especially those that took place during the last two to three decades of the 20th century, have been discussed in many recent scientific publications. Attempts to project the results of such studies in the future have been made under different assumptions. In this paper, we have chosen one of the well-known scenarios predicting changes of the climate in the world during the last 30 years of the 21st century. This scenario is used, together with several general predictions related to the future climate, to produce three climatic scenarios. The derived climatic scenarios are used to calculate predictions for future pollution levels in Denmark and in Europe by applying the Unified Danish Eulerian Model (UNI-DEM), on a space domain containing the whole of Europe.     

Global temperature change from the transport sectors: Historical development and future scenarios

Transport affects climate directly and indirectly through mechanisms that operate on very different timescales and cause both warming and cooling. We calculate contributions to the historical development in global mean temperature for the main transport sectors (road transport, aviation, shipping and rail) based on estimates of historical emissions and by applying knowledge about the various forcing mechanisms from detailed studies. We also calculate the development in future global mean temperature for four transport scenarios consistent with the IPCC SRES scenarios, one mitigation scenario and one sensitivity test scenario. There are large differences between the transport sectors in terms of sign and magnitude of temperature effects and with respect to the contributions from the long- and short-lived components. Since pre-industrial times, we calculate that transport in total has contributed 9% of total net man-made warming in the year 2000. The dominating contributor to warming is CO₂, followed by tropospheric O₃. By sector, road transport is the largest contributor; 11% of the warming in 2000 is due to this sector. Likewise, aviation has contributed 4% and rail ～1%. Shipping, on the other hand, has caused a net cooling up to year 2000, with a contribution of ?7%, due to the effects of SO₂ and NOx emissions. The total net contribution from the transport sectors to total man-made warming is ～15% in 2050, and reaches 20% in 2100 in the A1 and B1 scenarios. For all scenarios and throughout the century, road transport is the dominating contributor to warming. Due to the anticipated reduction in sulphur content of fuels, the net effect of shipping changes from cooling to warming by the end of the century. Significant uncertainties are related to the estimates of historical and future net warming mainly due to cirrus, contrails and aerosol effects, as well as uncertainty in climate sensitivity.     

People on the land: changes in global population and croplands during the 20th century

This study reviews the major changes in global distribution of croplands during the 20th century. During the 20th century, the cropland base diminished greatly (from approximately 0.75 ha person-1 in 1900 to approximately 0.35 ha person-1 in 1990). This loss of croplands was not globally uniform: more than half the world's population, living in developing nations, lost nearly two-thirds of their per capita cropland base. The distribution of croplands has become increasingly skewed--in 1990, 80% of the population lived off less than 0.35 ha person-1. While agricultural yields have generally increased, they have barely kept pace with population growth in developing nations. Overall, the global food production system is becoming increasingly vulnerable to regional disruptions because of our increasing reliance on expensive technological options to increase agricultural production, or on global food trade.     

Distribution of total mercury and methylmercury in lake sediments in Arctic Ny-Ålesund

The toxicities and bioavailabilities of total mercury (THg) and methylmercury (MeHg) in aquatic systems have made them the subjects of recent research. In this study, we collected a lake sediment core from Ny-Ålesund in Svalbard and analyzed the distributions of THg and MeHg in the sediments. The increased trend of THg was caused by anthropogenic contamination since the 14th century through long-range transportation, especially after the industrial era. However, the peak values of Hg in surface sediment samples could be explained by the increased algal scavenging process in recent decades. All the biogeochemical proxies (e.g., pigments and diatom biomass) revealed recent sharp increases in aquatic primary production due to the current climate warming. Rock-Eval analyses indicated that algal-derived organic matter took up a large portion, and quantitative calculation showed that 89.6-95.8% of the Hg in post-1950 could be explained by scavenging. The distribution of MeHg has a close relationship with total Hg and organic matter. The oxidation-reduction condition is one of the possible factors affecting the methylation rates in H2 lake sediments. Higher algal productivity and organic matter actually led to the increased trend of methylation in the uppermost sediment. This study supports some new key hypotheses on climate-driven factors affecting Hg and MeHg cycling in High Arctic lake sediments.     

Historical change of mercury pollution in remote Yongle archipelago, South China Sea

We collected three ornithogenic coral sand sedimentary profiles from Jinyin Island, Jinqing Island and Guangjin Island of Yongle archipelago, South China Sea and reconstructed the deposition flux of anthropogenic Hg over the past 700 years in the study area. On the whole, the anthropogenic Hg flux is relatively low; it remained at a low level before the Industrial Revolution with a small peak at about 1450-1550 AD, which may record the enhanced metallurgy activity in Ming Dynasty of China. During the 20th century, the deposition flux of anthropogenic Hg increased rapidly, but two troughs occurred during the periods around 1940s and 1970s, corresponding to the economic depression caused by World War II, Civil War in China (1945-1949), and the Culture Revolution (1966-1976) in China. Since the 1970s the deposition flux of anthropogenic Hg has been persistently increasing, apparently the result of fast economic development in East and Southeast Asia countries around South China Sea.     

Multi-decadal changes in tundra environments and ecosystems: synthesis of the International Polar Year-Back to the Future project (IPY-BTF)

Understanding the responses of tundra systems to global change has global implications. Most tundra regions lack sustained environmental monitoring and one of the only ways to document multi-decadal change is to resample historic research sites. The International Polar Year (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such research through the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project #512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 papers within this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes include glacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increased snow depth and hardness, permafrost warming, and increased growing season length in sub-arctic Sweden; drying of ponds in Greenland; increased nutrient availability in Alaskan tundra ponds, and warming at most locations studied. Biotic changes ranged from relatively minor plant community change at two sites in Greenland to moderate change in the Yukon, and to dramatic increases in shrub and tree density on Herschel Island, and in subarctic Sweden. The population of geese tripled at one site in northeast Greenland where biomass in non-grazed plots doubled. A model parameterized using results from a BTF study forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds and increases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado over the next century. In general, results support and provide improved capacities for validating experimental manipulation, remote sensing, and modeling studies.     

High-temporal resolution landscape changes related to anthropogenic activities over the past millennium in the Vosges Mountains (France)

Iron mining activities in the Bruche valley (Vosges Mountains, France) date historically from the Roman period to the mid-nineteenth century. The geochemical and palynological study of a core from the peat bog of Le Champ du Feu allows highlighting impacts of these activities over the past millennium. Trace metal contamination is recorded for lead (Pb), arsenic, zinc, and antimony during the Middle Ages, the sixteenth century, and from cal. ad 1750–1900, with several sources distinguished by Pb isotope analyses. Forest exploitation is attested by the palynological analysis of the core, with exploitation of Fagus for smelting processes and cutting of Abies for agro-pastoralism. This approach highlights several patterns of contamination, corresponding to the mixing sources and the contamination intensity, which can be linked to the pollen assemblage zones. Hence, anthropogenic activities such as mining and farming led to long-term modification of the landscape composition in this mountainous area.     

Atmospheric dynamics and ozone cycles related to nitrogen deposition in the western Mediterranean

Recent results from EU-sponsored projects have shed new light on the workings of the atmosphere in the Mediterranean Basin, where a large airmass becomes trapped and nearly stagnant over the sea during the summer. This work reviews the developments which have led to our present understanding of air pollution dynamics and associated meteorological processes in this region. In summer, the sea breezes combine with upslope winds to create recirculations along the coasts and within the western Mediterranean basin, with residence times in the order of days. Under strong insolation these recirculations become "large natural photo-chemical reactors" where most of the NOx emissions and other precursors are transformed into oxidants, acidic compounds, aerosols and ozone, which can exceed European Union directives for several months of the year. The objective of this paper is to evaluate available experimental evidence and complementary modelling results to help in the interpretation of observed ozone cycles and to anticipate possible scenarios for anthropogenic nitrogen deposition in the region.