Urban Air Quality Assessment Model: UAQAM

The Urban Air Quality Assessment Model (UAQAM) calculates urban concentrations caused by city emissions themselves, the so-called city background concentration. Three versions of the model for describing the dispersion were studied: Box, Gifford Hanna (GH) and a combined form of these two (Box–GH model). Regional background emissions contributing to the urban background concentration were accounted for by using measurements and calculations from a dispersion model on the continental scale. The results of the three UAQAM versions for a number of European cities were compared to measurements of SO₂ and NO _X . The Box–GH model shows better results when compared to the Box model and slightly better results in comparison to the GH model. The Box–GH model has been taken as a starting point for the assessment of urban air quality with UAQAM.     

Performance Evaluation of the SLEUTH Model in the Shenyang Metropolitan Area of Northeastern China

Performance evaluation is crucial for the development and improvement of an urban cellular automata model, such as SLEUTH. In this paper, we employed multiple methods for map comparison and model validation to evaluate the simulation performance of the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Shenyang metropolitan area of China. These multiple methods included the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve statistic, multiple-resolutions error budget, and landscape metrics. They were used to quantitatively examine model performance in terms of the amount and spatial location of urban development, urban spatial pattern and prediction ability. The assessment results showed that SLEUTH performed well in the way of the quantitative simulation of urban growth for this case study. Similar to other urban growth models, however, the simulation accuracy for spatial location of new development at the pixel scale and urban spatial pattern still needs to be improved greatly. These inaccuracies might be attributed to the structure and nature of SLEUTH, local urban development characteristics, and the temporal and spatial scale of its application. Finally, many valuable suggestions had been put forward to improve simulation performance of SLEUTH model for spatial location of urban development in the Shenyang metropolitan area.     

未确知测度模型在城市环境空气质量评价中的应用

基于环境空气的信息不确定性特点,运用未确知数学理论,建立了城市环境空气质量评价的未确知测度模型。根据未确知测度的大小,确定样本所属的质量级别及样本间的优劣排序。以唐山市为例,运用所建模型对其环境空气质量状况进行了评价。研究表明,未确知测度模型对于多指标的城市空气质量评价,理论上是可行的,结果是可信的。     

A Simple Model for Urban Background Pollution

A simple urban background pollution model is presented. Contributions from the individual area sources, subdivided into a grid net of a resolution of 2km × 2km, are integrated along the wind direction path assuming linear dispersion with the distance to the receptor point. Horizontal dispersion is accounted for by averaging the calculated concentrations over a certain, wind speed dependent wind direction sector, centred on the average wind direction. Formation of the nitrogen dioxide due to oxidation of nitrogen monoxide by ozone is calculated using a simple chemical model based on assumption of a photochemical equilibrium on the time scale of the pollution transport across the city area. The rate of entrainment of fresh rural ozone is governed by this time scale. The model is suitable for calculations of urban background when the dominating source is the road traffic. For this source the emissions take place at ground level, and a good approximation is to treat the emissions as area sources, but with an initial vertical dispersion determined by the height of the buildings.     

基于GM（1,1）模型的城镇生活污水排放量预测

根据2000--2012年全国城镇生活污水排放量数据,建立了相应的GM（1,1）模型和预测函数。通过后验差检验等对预测函数进行了评估,并对2013--2017年城镇生活污水排放量进行了预测,结果表明,2013--2017年全国城镇生活污水的排放量逐年增加,呈上升趋势,从2013年的477．2736亿t上升到2017年的624．1022亿t;灰色预测模型和方法简单易用,利用较少的数据即可进行精度较高的预测。     

An Urban Atmospheric Diffusion Model for Traffic-Related Emission Based on Mass-Conservation and Advection-Diffusion Equations

This paper proposes an atmospheric diffusion model for traffic-related emission in urban areas within a few hundred meters from relevant roads. The model adopts the mass-conservation (MC) principle for the velocity calculation and the advection-diffusion (AD) equation for the concentration calculation. This MC+AD combination was chosen to achieve fast calculation for complex geometries. To compensate for the inherent deficiencies of MC and AD, as many known properties possible of turbulent boundary-layer flow over obstacles are incorporated into the MC calculation, and the diffusivity in AD is derived from the velocity spectrum as a function of distance from the emission source. The model is evaluated against wind-tunnel experiments ranging from point-source emission in uniform urban canopy to along-road emission in real city geometries. The model performs well in relatively simple configurations, but the performance deteriorates considerably as the complexity increases. However, in real city geometries, the model exhibits distinctly better performance in terms of statistical indices than a conventional Gaussian-plume model that neglects the effect of individual buildings. The model is therefore a viable option for environmental assessment.     

Treatment of Urban Areas within a Regional Transport Model of Sulphur and Nitrogen Oxides

The air pollution transport model UGEM (The University of Greenwich Evaluation Model) has been developed to evaluate medium-range transport and deposition of sulphur and oxidised nitrogen from all types of sources of emissions in the UK and to estimate their average annual deposition and concentrations across the UK. The model has been tested for its predictions against the available measurements.This study was focused on a possibility of applying the UGEM model to the assessment of air quality on a local scale. One parameter in the model is crucial, the local deposition fraction. The effect of this parameter on quality of the model predictions has been studied for different scales of UGEM output, such as the whole territory of the UK, a rural region and an urban area.The results of the study show that the magnitude of the local deposition fraction should be different for each grid square to reach the best agreement of predictions of concentrations with measurements. Applying a local value of the parameter to each grid square will improve the model predictions of the concentrations in urban areas in particular and will not affect the quality of model predictions of the wet deposition.     

Water Quality Modeling for a Typical Urban Lake Based on the EFDC Model

Urban lakes are typically characterized by fragile ecological capacities and complex management of their hydrospheric ecosystems. The aims of this study are to establish a reliable hydrodynamic-water quality model for an urban lake, to investigate the responses of water quality to different extreme hydrological conditions associated with rainstorms, and to explore the results from different modeled scenarios surrounding the pollution threats associated with a sewage leak. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic water quality model was developed in this study. The model was calibrated and validated using observed data. The model results agreed well with the observed data, and the averaged relative root mean-squared error (RRMSE) for all of the compared variables was 33.3 %. The validated model was applied to analyze water quality responses for different extreme historical rainfall scenarios from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2012. The model results indicate that for Lake Tianyinhu, rainstorms adversely affect water quality due to larger nutrient loads, generated by larger rainfall events, and the limited water storage capacity of the lake. Moreover, the responses of water quality to sewage leak events were studied through four scenarios with different leak intensities and durations. The model results indicate that sewage leaks have measureable negative effects on water quality and that it is vital to inspect and promptly eliminate any possible leaks within pipes surrounding the lake. This study may provide a useful tool for hydrological ecosystem protection and management techniques for similar urban lakes.     

基于WATER9模型的城镇污水处理中VOCs排放量研究

通过开展城镇污水处理模拟实验,与WATER9模拟结果比对和误差分析,使用优化后的WATER9模型模拟计算扬州汤汪污水处理厂一期工程的VOCs排放量,并分析各参数对VOCs排放量的影响.结果表明:WATER9模型满足城市污水处理厂污水处理过程中VOCs排放量的模拟要求,优化后的模拟值与实测值之间的相对偏差小于8％.实验结...     

Road Traffic Noise Prediction Model under Interrupted Traffic Flow Condition

The objective of this study is to develop an empirical traffic noise prediction model under interrupted traffic flow conditions using two analytical the approaches, the first being the acceleration lane approach and second being the deceleration approach. The urban road network of Bangalore city has been selected as the study area. Sixteen locations are chosen in major traffic junctions of the study area. The traffic noise data collected from the study locations were analyzed separately for both acceleration and deceleration lanes when vehicles leave an intersection on a green traffic light and come to a stop on red traffic light. Based on the study, a regression noise prediction model has been developed for both acceleration and deceleration lanes.     

灰色理论及其模型在北京典型城市区域声环境研究中的应用

以北京市某典型区域作为研究对象,在收集大量相关资料与实测历史噪声数据的基础上,对研究区域内的声环境质量影响因素进行灰色关联度分析,并运用灰色理论建立GM（1,1）模型进行预测。结果表明,影响城市区域声环境质量因素从大到小的排序依次为：机动车辆﹥常住人口数量﹥平均车流量﹥地区生产总值﹥城市道路桥梁﹥基础设施投资﹥治理噪声环保投资;以研究区域内噪声污染实测历史数据建立的GM（1,1）模型精度符合要求标准,根据GM（1,1）模型预测北京市“十二五”期间声环境质量达标且有轻微下降趋势。     

城市PM2.5扩散网络模型的研究

以复杂网络理论为基础,运用最短增广链算法构建城市PM2.5扩散的容量网络模型。通过分析城市环境中水平距离、海拔、风力等因素的作用,对PM2.5区域性扩散的物理过程进行一次有益的探索。西安市近期空气监测数据的实证分析显示,预测值与监测值基本吻合。同时,模型输出揭示了西安市PM2.5的扩散途径。     

Air pollution exposure monitoring and estimation. Part II. Model evaluation and population exposure

The air pollution dispersion model EPISODE has been developed at the Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) over the past several years in order to meet the needs of modern air quality management work in urban areas. The model has recently been used as a basis for exposure calculations of NOx and NO2 in order to assess the effects of different traffic diversion measures on health and well being for the residents in the V?lerenga-Ekeberg-Gamlebyen area in Oslo. Here we describe some results from the most recent evaluations of the model for NOx and NO2 at station Nordahl Brunsgate in Oslo for the period 1 October 1996-19 November 1996. In addition examples of population exposure calculations for Oslo performed during the winter period of 1995-96, are also presented.     

Deterministic and Stochastic Simulations for Solid Waste Collection Systems – A SWIM Approach

The SWIM model is the first systems model in Australia that deals with integrated waste management systems. The main modelling approach adopted is simulation, which is based on both deterministic and stochastic models for collection systems.These models are described in this paper, after a number of modelling approaches are reviewed. An example of the application of the SWIM model is given, and planned extensions to the SWIM model are briefly outlined.     

Land Consumption by Urban Sprawl—A New Approach to Deduce Urban Development Scenarios from Actors’ Preferences

A new modelling approach to urban sprawl dynamics is introduced which allows representing qualitative knowledge on relations between moving actor populations and properties of locations. The results of this Qualitative Attractiveness Migration (QuAM) Model are scenario-like sets of possible future developments of the urban system, much in contrast to quantitative forecasts gained by traditional modelling approaches. QuAM models allow for the interaction between internal dynamics and external influences. The application of the new approach is exemplified by the case of urban sprawl in Leipzig since 1990. It was possible to reproduce the observed qualitative development and to calculate future scenarios. The scenario runs project a new wave of middle class driven residential sprawl and suggest implications for sprawl reducing policy interventions.     

A Satisficing Framework for Environmental Policy Under Model Uncertainty

We propose a novel framework for the economic assessment of environmental policy. Our main point of departure from existing work is the adoption of a satisficing, as opposed to optimizing, modeling approach. Along these lines, we place primary emphasis on the extent to which different policies meet a set of goals at a specific future date instead of their performance vis-a-vis some intertemporal objective function. Consistent to the nature of environmental policymaking, our model takes explicit account of model uncertainty. To this end, the decision criterion we propose is an analog of the well-known success-probability criterion adapted to settings characterized by model uncertainty. We apply our criterion to the climate-change context and the probability distributions constructed by Drouet et al. (2015) linking carbon budgets to future consumption. Insights from computational geometry facilitate computations considerably and allow for the efficient application of the model in high-dimensional settings.

     

The Draft of the New German Guideline VDI 3782/8 to Model Automobile Exhaust Dispersion

The draft of the German guideline to calculate automobile exhaust dispersion is explained. It contains a two-stage-system: For first quick estimates the guideline contains the simple models MLuS and STREET. In case these models are not applicable or their results shows concentration levels close to the air quality standards, the more complex models PROKAS_V and MISKAM are recommended. PROKAS_V is a Gaussian plume model, MISKAM is a 3-dimensional microscale non hydrostatic flow model for built-up areas with an Eulerian dispersion model. The guideline comprises cases in rural areas without or with few adjacent buildings as well as urban areas with buildings near the roads. The contribution gives information about the models, typical results and some of the problems showing up presently.     

Numerical Model Inter-comparison for Wind Flow and Turbulence Around Single-Block Buildings

Wind flow and turbulence within the urban canopy layer can influence the heating and ventilation of buildings, affecting the health and comfort of pedestrians, commuters and building occupants. In addition, the predictive capability of pollutant dispersion models is heavily dependent on wind flow models. For that reason, well-validated microscale models are needed for the simulation of wind fields within built-up urban microenvironments. To address this need, an inter-comparison study of several such models was carried out within the European research network ATREUS. This work was conducted as part of an evaluation study for microscale numerical models, so they could be further implemented to provide reliable wind fields for building energy simulation and pollutant dispersion codes. Four computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models (CHENSI, MIMO, VADIS and FLUENT) were applied to reduced-scale single-block buildings, for which quality-assured and fully documented experimental data were obtained. Simulated wind and turbulence fields around two surface-mounted cubes of different dimensions and wall roughness were compared against experimental data produced in the wind tunnels of the Meteorological Institute of Hamburg University under different inflow and boundary conditions. The models reproduced reasonably well the general flow patterns around the single-block buildings, although over-predictions of the turbulent kinetic energy were observed near stagnation points in the upwind impingement region. Certain discrepancies between the CFD models were also identified and interpreted. Finally, some general recommendations for CFD model evaluation and use in environmental applications are presented.     

NARX神经网络模型在昆明市环境空气质量预测中的应用

神经网络模型作为一种重要的手段被广泛应用于数学计算、物理建模、水文模拟、环境预测、人工智能等研究领域。为验证神经网络模型在高原山地城市环境空气质量预测中的作用,以昆明市环境空气自动监测站气象因子和污染物浓度数据为基础,构建NARX神经网络模型,对污染物浓度进行预测。结果表明,基于NARX神经网络建立的预测模型具有很强的非线性动态描述能力,能够对环境空气6参数做出较为准确的预测,其预测浓度相对误差显著低于CMAQ、NAQPMS空气质量数值模式以及LSTM统计模型预测结果。优化后的NARX神经网络对污染物浓度变化趋势的预测较其他几个模式更为敏感。